Mark Halperin on Why He Thinks Trump Will Win and the Left’s Mental Collapse

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[Music]. [Applause]. [Music]. [Applause]. [Music]. so. where like where are we so we're three I. think three weeks out. today what's what's the state of the.

race well people say it's going to be. close for sure I don't agree with that I. think it could be one one of them could. win easily and I think today that's more. likely to be Trump all the variables. that you would look at to say who's. going to. win Point towards Trump with four big. exceptions that I think I know is what. the Democrats relying on so barring. these four things coming together I. think Trump will win and I think he. might win easily um but she could still. win number one is abortion yeah just.

don't know uh how big a vter will be now. I say to people why wouldn't that be. showing up in the polls now why would. that be a secret but the reality is. there's a there's a a a an emotion to. that issue as you know politics is a bad. emotion more than anything else there's. an emotion to that issue that may be. bigger than is currently measured number. two is so but to be clear that's not. showing up in the public polls right now. well I mean by definition it's not. showing up in in the two places you'd. look for one is in the horse race she's. not way ahead in the horse race and.

number two when we ask people what's the. most important issue to you abortion is. well behind the economy inflation. immigration but uh but we've seen it's. electoral power and we know that Donald. Trump thinks it's a big issue because. he's struggled to to neutralize it he's. not doing that for fun he's doing that. because he sees the same data that. there's a power to this issue that may. be beyond the current measurements. that's number one number two is simply. is the gender gap just the the um the. the the reality that women vote more.

than men and again they may it connects. to abortion but it's not just about. abortion because women don't like Donald. a lot of women don't like Donald Trump. that may just power a a victory three is. her her ground game right the the. mechanical process her campaign is run a. chair the chair of her campaign is. someone who grew up as a field person I. don't think that's ever happened in a ma. major presidential campaign before and. they have way more money and president. TR Trump has gone out of his way to. demonize early voting trying to change.

it now but the mechanics of that if it. is in fact close people say they could. be worth three points three points could. well be significantly bigger yeah uh and. then lastly is is the notion that he has. a ceiling that if it if the third party. vote is very low and it's much more. likely to be low like it was in 20 than. high like it was in 16 from the. Libertarians and the greens and and uh. Cornell West then it may be that he. can't get above. 47% that this simply what you call Trump.

fatigue or January 6 whatever you want. to call it puts off limits to him some. number of. Voters that that she may in a two. effectively a two-person race in the. seven states may be able to get to 48 49. and he can't those four things are what. give Democrats hope that they can win. but in my reporting over the last week. Republicans are not are not measuring. the drapes and picking the cabinet but. pretty close to it not at the level they.

were at the convention when when Joe. Biden was still their opponent but. there's extreme confidence that they're. going to take the house take the Senate. take the White House Democrats are. somewhere between worried and freaking. out and her conduct and her capabilities. as a candidate are not reassuring them. if they were honest about it they would. say as some of them have started to say. how could we have dumped Joe Biden for. someone who has a few advantages over. him but has many of the same problems. and by the way some additional problems. of their own and I think they. recognizing that when you choose a.

candidate like that you're taking a bit. of a risk and the risk may not just may. not pay off for them so on on what basis. are they evaluating the race like what. polls. are both sides people you listen to the. smart people um with predictive success. over time like what are they looking. at well they're looking at the reality. that the race may be back as some some. people told me immediately after she. became the nominee we may looking at a.

situation where she's back to where the. part's back to where they were when. Biden was the nominee before the debate. okay before the debate he had one. Electoral College path which was to win. the three great lake states in the. Nebraska congressional district and. that's it no one's ever won when they. had one Electoral College path it's you. know margin of area but not impossible. but they were have to be all in on that. because Biden was not going to win the. four Sun Bel Battlegrounds she's edged. back closer to that okay she she may be. able to win them or or one or two of.

them but it's possible that those are. going to be as off limits to her. eventually as they were to to Biden and. she's weaker in the Great Lake States. than he is so if you look at what what. if you look at the private data and. where things stand these races are close. and if it's if it's within two points if. Trump has consistently has a two-point. lead or a three-point lead or a. four-point lead does that mean he has to. win the state it doesn't but it's the. consistency that that has come in the. last couple weeks in both parties data. where where she has come down and he has.

come up a little bit that make them. worried that she simply hasn't done. enough to win her problem is I say the P. problem of of policy people just sus the. undecided voters just don't understand. what she's about and she is not done. they some of them find it insulting how. little she's explained what she's about. and we really don't know I've known her. a long time I've covered her a long time. I've studied her positions and and her. public policy engagement I don't really. know what she stands for I don't really. know what she do as president I don't.

really know what she believes in or why. she's running and you contrast this with. Trump where even his enemies can tell. you right away what he stands for what. he would do in a second term at least. the big picture and his problem is. personality and he's done almost as. little to address that issue as she's. done to address hers and that. means I'm I'm amazed people have said. for so long no one so many people in the. electorate don't want Trump or Biden. they want a third choice you don't. really hear that now as nearly as much.

but but it's it's it's almost as true. not as true because she satisfies a lot. of Democrats who are not satisfied with. Biden but a lot of Democrats and. certainly a lot of Independents and. centrists and moderates they don't like. either of these choices and that that's. part of what Democrats are looking at. because I think in the end as much as. she's not satisfied uh people's desire. for knowledge about her they won't vote. for Trump they just simply don't want. four more years of trump and she's. turned to that message in the last 24. hours the way Biden did now I don't know. if she'll stick with but she's now.

emphasizing this notion of we can't go. back to somebody this unstable and this. um and this unattractive in terms of. Personality changing your personality is. hard well it's probably impossible and. any attempt to do it comes off as false. so there's of course a cost and a risk. but coming up with a platform is not. hard you just sit in a room with your. pollsters and your policy guys and like. pick three topics and stake out. positions that contrast with your. opponents and like why why haven't they. done that yeah. a lot of the questions about things.

she's doing and not. doing um are Mysteries even to a lot of. Democrats even some people close to her. you've named one but why is she doing. one event a day some days most days why. isn't she flying to three Battleground. States in a day. um when when uh people ask me why I. think she she she's more likely to lose. than not her her great weakness is she. is in indecisive she doesn't like to.

make hard. decisions and coming up with policy. choices is difficult if you think of. everyone who's been elected president. since since HW Bush so Clinton onward. they've all put at the center of their. campaigns a set of policy proposals and. and kind of an ethos of things that. start with this sentence what my party's. gotten wrong is X right they've they've. they've they've so They seized on some. things.

that they really believe their part's. out of step with the country and wrong. on the substance so Bill Clinton 92. supported the death penalty Right to. Work NAFTA uh and welfare reform and he. would say my part's wrong on these. things right all it's obvious for the. rest what they did not only has she not. said that I'm not sure she believes that. I'm not sure that she thinks the part's. out of step with the country on anything. and when you see you know government. funded operation operations for uh.

illegal immigrants who want who want to. change their sexual. identity no no way would Bill Clinton or. Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton or John. krey no way would they have said I'm I'm. for that what is she because there's not. strong public support for that no no. just the opposite so so so we say why. can't she come up with a platform any. position she takes is going to be uh. criticized if she moves to the center by. the left and if and and even on the left.

even if she takes something further to. the left as she has some of the things. she's come up with new government. spending programs and tax programs. they're still subject to be criticized. and she doesn't like to be criticized. she'd rather try not to take positions. now the other day but can I just ask. even within the Democratic party which I. routinely dismiss is crazy and evil and. poisonous and all that but paying for. sex changes for legal aliens that can't. be a hugely popular issue even within.

the party it it isn't but but it is a. popular position for the loudest. angriest most influential part of the. party but if you do this s to soldier. that actually works so if your goal is. to get elected I mean just this is an. aoral evaluation of this right but you. just denounce the unpopular wackos in. your party it's not hard yeah right well. it's it's hard for her because she's. indecisive. doesn't like that is that is I think.

what explains it you know her big sister. Soldier moment was to say I want to I. want to um cut I want to raise the. capital gains tax rate less than Joe. Biden that was her big sister Soldier um. she also uh uh you know you look at her. career she's not really been a font of. policy ideas no and that you know she's. stolen a lot of Trump's ideas which you. know Trump people don't like but I guess. it's smart if the other side's got a. smart idea and you can claim it do but. in terms of original ideas it's just not.

been her thing and again I think partly. is she doesn't like to go onto terrain. where people might shoot at her from the. left or the right or both and she is in. a complex position just because of the. the nature of how she got to where she. is now the fact that there's a sitting. president sort of in the shadows behind. her um what is her relationship like. with. Biden well it's gotten a little bit Fray. of late.

because I don't think he I think he. there are people who say he doesn't. wanted to win I think he does wanted to. win there are people who say um he only. wants her to win without disrespecting. him even though he has said privately to. her and the teams have said to each. other she needs to do what she needs to. do to win I. mean I you know I saw his mental decline. in in 2017 yeah I did too you know I saw. him do a public event for a book in 2017. and I said after the event thank. goodness he's off the public stage thank.

goodness this didn't happen earlier and. so the the those of us who knew him. before and speaking for myself I always. liked him um in a very shallow way but. you know he's a fun to be around totally. and sort of large personality touchy. Irish guy I like people like that and. but those of us who knew him it was. immediately obvious that he had some. sort of cognitive decline I it was just. obvious so I think the things he's done. of late that that the Press cast is.

hurting her I just think he's doing. because he's you know he's not he's not. super sharp It's Kind out of it and the. staff is as they have when he was still. the nominee to being deferential to him. but there is a uh again just recently in. the last 10 days or so there have been a. number of things like he went out in the. briefing room right when she was. starting her event um no one's really. explained how that happened uh it's hard. to coordinate Right Between The West. Wing Wilmington and the vice president's.

office like those are three entities. busy people doing other things besides. coordinating so I think they've dropped. some stitches I think they're determined. to stop dropping stitches the rest of. the way so you don't think it's passive. aggression I don't think it is there are. many people I respect who think it is I. don't think it is I think it's just it's. hard and he's not up to doing hard. things and she's even though she's not. campaigning very much she's still on the. road and it's just I just think they're. dropping stitches I really don't think. there's a passive aggressive or or even. a a mixed feeling about I think he wants.

her to. win I mean the toughest question for her. that I have seen is how will you be. different from from Joe Biden yeah why. can't why haven't they thought through a. better answer again it's hard to get a. straight answer about that I think it. there are three things at Play number. one she doesn't want to appear disloyal. and and that is something he does care. about as I said he wants her to win but. he wants her to win his way he doesn't. want her to win at his expense okay that.

that is an ambivalence but not not not. the fundamental question of does he want. her to win so number one he doesn't she. doesn't want to disrespect him number. two taking different positions from him. involves risk there could be there could. be a backlash right and she doesn't as. I've said she that's her main problem. she doesn't like to take risks and then. finally um there's a there's a um. there's just a basic performative. question with her that's not her only. bad answer right that's the one that. people have focused on the most but.

she's just not good at delivering sound. bites or complicated messages in a way. that that that is helpful to her you. know she does these interviews where. nothing bad happens and they give high. fives that nothing bad happened or only. a few bad things happen none of these. interviews has she come out of where. people said wow now I get it now I get. why this person should be my president. and that's again just Testament to she's. just not that good at this thing called. answering questions that are hard or.

easy what do the donors who put her. there think of all of this yeah so I'd. say impressionistically because I. haven't talked to them all but. impressionistically about 80% of them. are. just we got to look forward the. election's coming up Trump must lose we. have to do everything we can to help 20%. say how could we possibly have replaced. we all said the only Democrat who could. lose to Joe B to Donald Trump was Joe.

Biden how could we have possibly played. a role in replacing him with apparently. the only other person who could lose to. Donald Trump now Joe Biden and I and KLA. Harris would say these other Democrats. would have be struggling as much or. maybe more than she would even though. they wouldn't have been as burdened with. the Biden Harris record so what they're. saying is this is the best we could do. this is better than Biden the pollsters. are and the public polls are saying she. can still win it let's put our heads. down and win but there will be a lot of.

soul searching about how they possibly. could have placed her in this role. without um without the benefits of of. actually beating Donald Trump how did. that um I I think you were the one of. the very maybe the first person uh to. report that this was coming that Biden. was going to step aside how'd you know. that by the way um I predicted it but. just predicted you reported it so how. did you know that and how did how did. that happen yeah I reported it against. my instincts because I did not believe.

Joe Biden would give the nomination up. first of all it's embarrassing and you. know it's staying on his legacy as much. as they built it up as great for his. legacy uh but also he believed that she. would become the nominee in all. likelihood and that she could not be. Donald Trump and that if somehow she. didn't become the nominee he didn't. think Gavin Newsome or Gretchen Whitmer. or any of these other people could beat. Trump and I think two years ago Biden. didn't think KL Harris could win no or. be a good president as I understand it. so he was really yeah he's he from the.

day from the transition forward he told. Ron Clan and everyone else she needs to. meet with foreign leaders all the time. and she did I mean she's had an. unprecedented uh you know kind of. tutorial in that she needs to be you. know supported and all that we all know. what happened she she she did not run a. good operation uh there was leaking and. and her approval ratings were. ridiculously low he. he part of it was his own you know PR. himself but but but the people around.

him to a person would would not have. told you that she could be Donald Trump. um so my point is I reported on it uh. thinking he's not going to step down and. and I had lots of people who we know you. and I both know very smart who said. you're you're wrong he's going to have. to step down particularly Republicans. said the party can't be that irrational. they can't be say we're going to. continue along with a guy who is who 70%. of the Democrats say shouldn't be the. nominee but he didn't have to give it up.

so the I broke I can't obviously say. exactly how I broke it but it started. with a tip about the vetting of uh vice. presidential prospects by her and one of. the stories that hasn't been written yet. I'll tease it out here and hopefully. someday somebody will give me a big. enough book contract I can write it is. she started maneuvering for the. nomination well before the Sunday. morning when he called her and said he. was not going to run and part of that. was vetting of uh potential running. mates which her team knew that that. couldn't wait that had to get underway.

that's something you know normally takes. months so I got a tip that that was. happening so every year when Apple. releases the overpriced new iPhone the. big carriers play the same old game sign. up now next two years some big sell your. contract get a free. iPhone well what do you give up in. return a lot don't fall for it this time. choose pure talk with pure talk you get. great savings on the new iPhone 16 and. you still get an affordable data plan. that fits your needs on America's Most. Dependable 5G Network stop falling into.

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I mean that is measuring curtains oh. yeah you're vetting your VP candidate. when you're the VP yeah but but but. because she knew as as my sources did. that he was strongly considering getting. out and more than strongly considering. there was a period of of at least a week. and maybe more where amongst a very. small circle of people the default was. he's getting out and it's just a matter. of when and how you'll recall he got. covid and that kind of delayed things a. little bit um was that actually Co I.

don't know any reason to believe it. wasn't I know there's lots of. speculation about it but I think it was. so so on one track you have him sort of. starting to realize he needs to and then. you have the Pelosi track and the Pelosi. track is part of why I was able to. report what I able to report because she. was determined to get him out and she. saw that hakee jeffre and and Chuck. Schumer and the donors were not doing. enough to get him out and so she felt. she had no choice but to get him out but.

again not reported yet she didn't want. to be KLA Harris she wanted Shapiro to. run of governor of of P Pennsylvania so. she she intended there to be a two-step. process and I'm not sure because I don't. know this from her and I would take it. only from her I'm not sure if she knew. the outcome whether she still would have. been for it I think so but I'm not sure. what would the St I I remember hearing. people told me the exact same thing that. that they that Obama wanted a twostep. process what would that have looked like.

well lots of people talked about it. publicly right there were people like. James Carville and and uh trying to. think of the other prominent people who. talked about it um there's others who. who wanted basically either in the runup. to the convention or at the convention. like one proposal was that Obama and. Bill Clinton would pick six people and. that those six people could run for the. nomination by giving speeches and having. the delegates vote and they didn't rule. that KLA Harris but the. kind of gal of it was this is the way to.

stop con Harris yeah the delegates were. were Biden Harris delegates she's the. incumbent vice president she's a black. woman of color and the the campaign. money could only transfer to her so. those are pretty big advantages. particularly this question of the. delegates right they're Biden Harris. delegates was were they going to vote. for somebody else in a competitive. contest so the Assumption was even if. you couldn't get her to stand down and. they knew they probably couldn't get her. to stand down who's going to run against. that who's going to run against somebody.

with all of those. advantages and so um I think part I. think what what some people don't take. sufficiently into account is the Clock. Was ticking if they'd had a year to. figure this out maybe things would have. gone differently but they didn't have. much time and the minute she made it. clear to people she was going forward. and you asked these other people will. you run against her none of them wanted. to none of them wanted to so it wasn't a. matter of of uh uh who didn't I thought. gret and Whitmer wanted to none well.

first of all my sense of of the people. who get talked about the half dozen none. of them are in a John Edwards Barack. Obama George W Bush School of I must be. president and of course Bush was. relatively ambivalent but he he was like. yes that's something I want I think if. you look at the six of them not only are. they ambivalent about running let alone. running against an incumbent vice. president I'm not sure if you offer them. the presidency any of them would take it. like that and some people think I'm.

naive about that there are politicians. who are ambitious who think about the. white house but just from knowing them. and the people around them I don't think. you could say about any of them. automatic here's here are the keys to. 1600 I don't know that they would take. it and I say that without hoping I don't. sound naive they're politicians who have. aspirations but they're all they're all. relatively young they've got some of. them have younger kids they recognize. the um the downsides of how it changes. your life forever and none of them are. um again in the bill sort classic Bill.

Clinton like I'm at Georgetown plotting. how to get to the White House right. they're just not like that so so I I. absolutely strongly agree with what you. just said okay good you're and I've seen. it I saw Chris Christie I saw him do. that in 20 exactly exactly there are. plenty of people it's a big step yeah. it's a life-changing step and if you've. got younger kids it's just like for some. of them it's a non-starter or if you've. got a spouse who's ambivalent exactly. you know you can't do that and and and. if you look at the politics of of the.

era we're in now like a Democratic. president is going to be attacked every. minute on social media no matter how. good a job they do unless they can. revolutionize our political culture. they're just going to have you know. constantly bombarded none of them have. National Security experience like it's a. big job so so in some ways in retrospect. there's a fantasy to think anybody would. run against her to say I'm gonna I'm. gonna tear away Biden Harris delegates. in addition how are you going to design. a system really where Bill Clinton and.

Barack Obama get to pick they they were. put a premium on and she did on I the. nomination wasn't handed to her and it. really in some ways it wasn't she she. earned it in the sense that she figured. out what the rules of the game were and. she won the game yeah I mean if you had. Obama and Clinton just make the decision. you'd have to admit publicly that it. really is an olre oligarchy correct. correct and so would they pick Bernie. Sanders you know he might win if they. picked Bernie Sanders yeah they faced. that problem twice before yeah so so I.

was able to figure out that she was. underway and then I was able to figure. out that he was working on a withdrawal. plan and then I was able to figure out. that he had decided to withdraw as early. as that weekend this was on the Thursday. night the final night of the Republican. convention and you know people said how. could you risk you know I don't work for. a big Legacy news organization with. lawyers and you know PR people how could. you risk reporting it I had it just.

completely nailed it wasn't it wasn't um. it wasn't it wasn't it wasn't like a. tough call to report it I reported that. he was not going to endorse her which. when I reported it was true um what. happened after I reported that was he he. there were people in her Camp who didn't. want him to endorse her because he. didn't want to seem like a coronation. they were confident that she'd be the. nominee and they didn't want it to be. the president chose the vice president. but he got a lot of heat from the minute. I report that from women close to her. who felt differently about it and some.

women in C in Congress who said it would. look horrible for you not to endorse her. so from the time I report it I think. because I report it till Sunday he. changed his mind and decided yes he. would endorse her but others as you know. did not because they wanted to not. create the impression that this was just. a a an elite you know selection of the. new nominee how did he I still don't. fully understand how he dropped out so. the media which had cheer LED for him. obvously um but had stopped ex not only.

stopped they started attacking it right. so there's that I felt that was a big. deal just as an observer um but Biden. himself was Resolute at least in public. but also every story you read said in. private he was Resolute and then it just. seemed to change well you know it's it's. a normal thing it's this happens. gradually and then all of a sudden EXA. um uh. so I'm very frustrated with our business. and with. kind of our political media culture that.

that for seven years there could be this. cover up of all the major how many years. have you been in this business since. 1987 long long time we're moving toward. 40 okay so just to for people I I think. this is the worst scandal in journalism. American journalism history because. because anyone knew what was happening. the public knew what was happening. and yet the cover up.

continued and when the cover up was. exploded cover up of bid decline he. spoke to a dead. congresswoman I mean what more do we. need to know he a congresswoman who had. died he you know what I'm talking about. yeah okay he speaks to a dead. congresswoman and his press secretary. says he spoke to her because she was top. of mind because he was going to be. meeting with her family that's not. forgetting somebody's name that is a a. loss of Acuity which would disqualify. him from being a museum dosent right.

much less having access to nuclear codes. so so so that cover up goes because some. affection for Biden The Bullying of his. staff but primarily because of of desire. to make sure Donald Trump doesn't win. and then when there becomes no. choice but to say we got to get rid of. him now because he's a threat to to The. Republic because Trump could beat. him they turn against him they never. acknowledge their participation as.

co-conspirators in a seveny yearlong. cover up and then the same people get to. cover the the new candidate and and. Trump it's it's staggering to me like. after weapons of mass destruction there. was some soul searching yes after the. Muller investigation there was some not. not more than 5% but. some acknowledgement that that perhaps. the coverage was a little bit off. there's been zero as I see it zero soul.

searching acknowledgement we we we wrote. story after story about how well Trump. misspeaks to and well Biden you know. their days when he's good and there are. days still to this day there days when. he's. fine but we all have seen people in. Decline they have good days and bad days. of course they shouldn't be. president and that's not a partisan. statement that's just a statement about. the the rigors of the job but but the. Press turned on him. and then acted like they had not propped.

him up for seven years in in one day in. one hour watching my former colleagues. on CNN pivot like that it's incredible I. was my job I couldn't. so I was out I'll say I was out of the. country when that happened and which. made it even weirder to watch you know. your country from the other side of the. world and wonder what is going on here. and it looked very much like a setup. very much like a setup. um I think that because they all said.

the same thing at exactly the same. moment yeah I think that they. just I don't I don't I don't think the. conspiracy is that disgusted they just. all have the exact same orientation and. they're bullied in the same way so I. don't know that they have to and react. to the bullying the same way so I don't. know that they had to discuss it I I do. know. that um when I would talk to White House. reporters privately for major news. organizations they would acknowledge. Biden the accuity decline was. substantial they they saw it they just.

were in newsrooms that where that was it. was impermissible to say it how could. you not report that I don't know but no. one did except for except for people. from places like Newsmax and fox no one. did I I really do I really I really do. wonder how people look back on that. because again they've moved on now but. you know them all very well I don't know. how they think about this by the way for. people who don't follow this. you know people are watching this I mean.

I should just say the obvious which is. you were not just part of the news. business but really at the center of the. political news business for you know. many decades what seems like. decades because I think it was it was. there um so you know every single person. personally I mean I just know that well. I know a lot of them but you know. there's a bunch of new new ones right. all right but I'm saying I know a lot of. them I know a lot of them anyone over 30. you know so what do they say I I don't. understand like how they could explain.

that you know the president C now but. you don't tell your viewers or readers. that the ones who will offer. explanations blame their. bosses that their editors and their. executive producers and their anchors. didn't want to hear it and that they. would say it and it just didn't become. part of the the the coverage some of. them have said that but. again to me the failure to acknowledge. it what what they did I won't say it's. worse than the original crime but it's. pretty bad it's pretty.

bad and and of course it along with law. fair it helps Trump extraordinarily. because people say sometimes in our. business oh I trust the American people. they're way ahead of us on this one it's. true it's not just a Trope yeah American. people including Democrats they saw what. was happening they saw the clips on. social media and that period leading up. to the debate like when he was overseas. when when the White House said oh this. is what was the word they had for it a. cheap fake that these clips are are.

selectively edited I just say he talked. to a dead congresswoman we don't need. more examples yeah we sure are there. some Republicans and some red people. online who who choose bad examples there. are but we don't need we don't need good. or bad examples his mental acuity. decline is obvious and so they everybody. knew just to bottom line everybody who. covers politics in Washington covers the. presidency knew of course how could you. not now they might have had a different.

sense of how bad it was right but but. but but I'll I'll give you an example of. the lack of accountability not only have. they not acknowledged their own role. what about the role of the people around. the president who to this day say he. didn't fail he didn't decide not to run. because he had to acknowledge that his. loss of mental acuity made it unlikely. he could beat Trump they continue to say. he didn't think he could win or he was. going to divide the Democratic party the. people the story of how they protected. him there's been some piercing of that.

with foreign leaders saying you know. anonymously that he had this Biden had. this problem or this problem you had the. Wall Street Journal piece which was. actually week te about um about mostly. Republicans saying was an absurd piece. yeah was ridiculous but but I know many. examples most of which I Can't Describe. because the terms in which they were. shared with me but Democratic members of. Congress knew full well of course and. that Wall Street Journal piece you know. the editors at the Wall Street Journal. um I'll just say I think are very.

dishonest but uh I know that they are. but some of them but like that piece was. really the only piece in a big from Big. publication to make the point that hey. people are talking about his senility. but that piece was so watered down that. it like what was the point of even. running that I'm I'm surprised they. spent so much time on it and that's what. they came up. with it but again it helped it helped. Biden because it was certainly. now it hurt the Democratic party because.

if if Trump wins history is going to. show of course if they'd replaced him. sooner with anybody including Harris. they'd have had a better chance rather. than rushing her into this but but how. there could not be I mean she's not been. asked about it she was in the town hall. the other day but she's not explained. her connection to this cover up kind of. incredible what was her connection to. the like what is the truth I don't think. she was heavily involved with it because. that wasn't her responsibility right she. wasn't in charge of making sure the.

president's okay now you could argue. that should have been but that really. not the role of any vice president let. alone this. one again he had good days and bad days. and he good hours of the day and bad. hours of the day so my guess is when she. saw him most of the time he was fine but. I'm sure just by the law of averages I'm. sure she saw him when he was not well. she must have known yeah I remember when. I was a kid and going into this business. and hearing people speak derisively of.

the White House Press Corp during the. 1930s which covered up the fact. supposedly that FDR was in a wheelchair. and thinking you know how could that you. know I mean that's so North Korean like. that could never happen again I I'm I've. long been a critical critic of the press. I think that the the the the degree to. which Trump was helped from 15 onward. with the Press hostility is obvious but. this one really frightens me it really. frightens me that it's it's it's beyond. just like. you know North Korea or communist China.

it's beyond that it's it's the it's the. fact that it's occurring in a society. with alternative media and social media. and and and White House briefings and. reporters presumably wanted to make. their bones by getting big stories no. one reported it when it was clear they. needed to turn they just turned against. him no accountability for themselves or. for the people in the government who. engaged in the coverup with them I just. find it frightening not just it's fun to.

say it's a big media. Scandal and provocative to say it but I. find it frightening that that could. happen in this country now I find it. frightening with all the media that we. have different from back when other. presidents Kennedy Roosevelt Etc Wilson. this is now this is the age of. transparency and had he not had a bad. debate he'd still be running for. president I I find it frightening how. did did he have how did that debate.

happen well like how did there are a lot. of Republicans who say it was a setup. and there were people who knew he' do. badly and they made him debate to force. him out I just don't believe that based. on what I know he was on track to lose. okay and there was no precip there was. no intervening event that they saw could. turn things around he was on track to. lose before that debate yeah he had one. path to win which was to win the three. great lak States in Nebraska 2 CD and he. was behind in Pennsylvania. I don't remember ever reading that. story also there seems like there's a.

lot of pressure not to report what the. data show which is you know if a. Democratic candidate or president is. behind no one wants to report that yeah. is that do you think that's true well. it's true if it's a Democrat that's what. I'm saying oh yeah he was on track to. lose he might have lost all seven. Battleground States and he was and he. was he was he was in trouble in New. Mexico and in um and in Virginia and in. Minnesota not as bad as he was after the. debate but before the debate things were.

very Grim really oh yeah he had he had. one Electoral College path and he and it. was not not in state again I just don't. remember ever reading. that it's it's true and not to make it. too personal but I should just say for. those who don't remember I always. thought that you were a liberal Democrat. I have no idea what your politics are. I'm not going to ask you I'm I'm I'm I'm. a journalist I'm an old fashion. journalist okay so but I just never even. I didn't think of you as any kind of. right-wing activist because you weren't. but I remember 2016 when you said. shortly before the election I think.

Trump's got a pretty good shot of. winning yeah and you and that was I. think just like you're anal analytical I. covered Trump rallies in 30 States and. talked to voters across the country it. was clear he could win and he did yeah. so you were right yeah but you were. attacked you were denounced for saying. that. yeah I think covering Trump's really. hard covering Trump is really hard even. if you want to be fair because he does. say a lot of things that are untrue he. does break a lot of norms that at least.

cause reasonable people to wonder. whether those are good Norms are bad and. he doesn't play straight with the kind. of decorum of of um of interactions with. the public and the press and January 6. and some of the things he said publicly. that are hateful and hurtful okay makes. them very hard to cover but he's also. hard to cover because the most of the. press covers him in a way that is unfair.

and that the American people not. everyone but anyone who doesn't watch. MSNBC Prime Time knows is unfair it's. it's right there with the law fair it's. unequal treatment that's hostile to him. so covering him is really hard but but. you should be allowed to analyze the. poll numbers well of course but also to. me it's more I mean that's crazy to me. it's more it's more to appreciate that. the things that people liked about him. who liked him and 2015 and 2016 are. legitimate things that they that they.

that they don't believe Washington. stands up for them that they don't. believe they believe there's too much. government regulation they believe that. there's no plan to deal with China there. were there were serious things he talked. about that the Border needs to be secure. there are serious things he talked about. that are in he talks about them some. often almost always in a cartoonish way. but those are those are aspirational. things and worries of the American. people that other politicians in both. parties weren't addressing so. you can and you can analyze the poll. numbers but you can also say as I said.

in 2011 which is really how I met. Trump he's talking about stuff that. people re respond to viscerally that. aren't being addressed and they're not. incidental things they're core things. for tens of millions of Americans so it. wasn't it wasn't to me when people say. oh how did you know it was not it was. not hard with the election just weeks. away KLA Harris has only won a single. clearly defined policy objective and. that's more abortion this is not the. pro-choice position of your youth the.

safe legal and rare pretense this is. more abortion is a good thing abortion. anywhere anytime for any reason at any. stage of development up to the 9th. month who can be for that well the. modern democratic party is for that. result thousands of babies dying every. day and that's why preborn clinics its. network of clinics are located in the. highest abortion areas Nationwide to.

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well I agree with you completely and I. also wrote a story in Politico um making. some of these points but I wasn't. attacked for it because I was already on. the outside you were very you were the. inside and I just thought it was the. response to you was so interesting in. 2016 because really the demand was not. that you know you be like a democratic. partisan the demand was you just deny. observable real. yes and that's a different thing so so I.

have great empathy for the people who. support Trump and who are angry that the. establishment media and universities and. all these liberal cultural institutions. are hostile to them I I I I appreciate. and and to see their candidate get four. indictments uh that are poly political. even though some of the underlying. actions were wrong but wholly political. indictments but I also have sympathy for. the people of trump derangement syndrome.

I get why they think this is the worst. thing that could happen to America and I. hear it from Democrats all the time who. say Donald Trump being president is not. the worst thing that's ever happened in. my life politically it's the worst thing. that's ever happened in my life I I. don't want to put myself on a pedestal. but I don't believe there are too many. people forget just journalists I don't. think there are a lot of people who have. empathy and and and understanding for. both those groups and I think that's the. core challenge for the country right now. is for all of us. to try to understand both groups but why. do you I mean you're from Washington DC.

your father worked at high levels of. government um you're very much from that. I mean you're from literally from that. culture and then you spent most of your. life in New Y C I was once called the. high priest of establishment journalism. well and that is I was I'm 55 I was. there and that is totally accurate yeah. so how do you wind up with empathy for. Trump. voters um because three things one is I. covered Bill Clinton was the first. presidential candidate I covered and I.

went to 46 states with him and listened. to people unhappy with the status quo. not just the short-term economic pain. but the long-term dislocation we've seen. since you with surveys are your kids. going to have the same economic future. you didn't know uh do you do you. understand your place in the world in. terms of the economy are you confident. that you'll have a career that you like. are social changes is a society changing. in ways that are offensive to you or or. unsettling to you so I saw the.

importance of getting out of Washington. and New York and watching presidential. candidates talk to voters and talking to. the voters and I saw some people like. Bill Clinton and Donald Trump and Ronald. Reagan i' put those three ahead of the. others saw the mood of the country and. saw that their party was not necessarily. addressing everything they needed to be. addressed and they did so that's number. one is I just understood the concept of. someone speaking. against the status quo in the. establishment number two um I've always.

seen liberal media bias even when early. in my career Peter Jennings was my. mentor he saw it too he was ahead of his. time in understanding half our potential. consumers were conservative and so you. have to constantly be questioning. whether your news product and your and. your analysis is appealing. to the entire country and not just the. people on the upper west side of. Manhattan and then lastly um I've always.

uh uh uh been concerned that the uh. uh how do I explain this it's like you. you you you have to be honest as a. journalist you can't just go not just. not go with the Upper West Side. Washington DC mentality but you have to. be constantly questioning the. assumptions that's a that's core to the. to the job and so I did that whether. it's politics or not just is are we. thinking about this right the way. I I covered the gaming industry for a. little bit and I'm fascinated by it and.

I think the way we cover the gaming. industry in this country is insane and. it needs to be uh it needs to be. different if you look at most coverage. of it it's not so he say about sports. what does that mean that I mean not to. get too sidetracked but I'm interested. what does that just it's a it's a huge. business that's completely unscrutinized. that are you pardon my total ignorance. cuz I hate all of it are you talking. about gambling or computer games no no. no no uh we could say it about both but. i' say it about i' say it I would say it.

to about social media and about kids on. iPads no we're just talking about. casinos sports betting gambling how how. is it covered that you think is wrong. well it's barely covered and it's the. the the fact that it's like regressive. you know that it hurts poor people the. fact that these businesses are extremely. powerful and they're lobbyist and they. rarely have rules that are deleterious. to their interests uh and and the fact. that they create Economic Opportunity. some places uh that that has been.

successful but just it's one of the. biggest businesses in the in the world. and it's you you pick up the New York. Times Wall Street Journal Washington. Post Associated Press the networks. they're barely covering it and when they. do they're not covering to me the. essence of of what it's really like so. when I covered it I I got backlash from. the people in the business both in the. journalism business covering and from. the gaming industry because I was coming. in and questioning assumptions how how. as a Society are we thinking about this. I don't think we're thinking about it at. all well we're not but but we should be.

both both the positive but also the. negative the lives that destroys and the. the percentage of people's household. income that they use on it I find it. insane I find insane so I'm embarrassed. that I haven't again I don't want to get. Sidetrack but since you said that out. loud I'm I'm one of the people who's. ignored it and think about how much. think about how much coverage there's. you've ever read in the New York Times. about the gaming. industry I learned the other day that. it's really common for young men in. their 20s recent college graduates who.

by definition have no money most of them. uh to spend a lot on Sports gambling yes. it's a huge thing and and and the and. the recruitment of athletes to you know. to raise the brand identity of the. individual companies it's it's a massive. business and just. uncovered and it's it's massive I forget. how big it is but it's huge it's like. bigger than like Hollywood something. something something combined it's just. really oh yeah it's huge it's huge so. again I just always as a journalist have. said people say Trump can't win well I.

saw him speak at CPAC in 2011 that guy. could win and so just going to question. they did am I misremembering this you. were attacked viciously just for. observing that correct uh not in 2011 I. was attacked no in 2016 oh in 2016 yes. yes I was attacked but I'm saying I saw. it in 2011 as I started my relationship. with Trump I saw him speak at CPAC where. you know Mitch Daniels and a bunch of. potential presidential candidates spoke. and I went on TV the next morning and.

and said Trump was the best speaker not. just because of the performance but he. got the best reaction and you may not. take him seriously as a presidential. candidate but you need to take what he's. running on and talking about seriously. and I say always Donald Trump is in some. ways a complicated man but in some ways. he's simple if you say nice things about. him on television he likes you um so he. called me up and invited me over to. Trump Tower and I and I mean he wasn't. like my best friend but I talked to him. about politics then pretty consistently.

from 2011 to. 2015 and part of why I had some access. to him was because when people on the. networks were interviewing him and and. talking about him because he's a g box. office but mocking the notion that he. could R win I took him seriously. incredible and then took heat for it. obviously when and he actually won big. big heat for him yeah so how just I keep. getting sidetracked. my apologies. but how exactly did it happen that Biden.

went from telling the world telling. people around him that he was going to. stay in um with the full support I think. of his wife and son yeah to announcing. that he was not running again um that. that the data was very grim and. inarguable yeah uh and he was presented. with a lot of it but Nancy Pelosi who as. I understand and it has not spoken to. him since uh he got out of the race as. we sit here today really that's what she.

said I believe in an interview I just. read. um she knew where the pressure points. were she's extremely skillful right she. knew what it would take to get him to. cry uncle and I'm not sure exactly what. that included except more and more. Governors and members of Congress saying. he had to step down donor saying they. would not write a single additional. check right so if you're the incumbent.

president and your fundraising dries up. pretty completely because he wasn't. raising small dollars right he was ryant. on big checks could you stay in the race. if leading members of your party called. for you to resign could you stay in the. race. if um you had no money to run a campaign. and and really had to lay off tons of. your staff not be able to afford. advertisement um not be able to fly. around and do big rallies could you stay. in you could but if Nancy Pelosi is.

saying to you you will have no money you. will have almost no one supporting your. continuing on donors celebrities members. of Congress Governors you will lose and. you will be blamed in history for having. stayed in and lost to Donald Trump or we. can celebrate you at the convention we. can say you're like George Washington. and you can salvage your your reputation. I think presented with those choices he. didn't have a.

choice what was Obama's role um to talk. to Pelosi and Schumer and others Clyburn. and others about how you get him. out how you design a process to replace. and to maximize the chances of the party. winning and to try not to get his. backup right the the the the Psycho. Drama between him and Obama is real I.

don't think it is between him and KLA. Harris but between him and Obama it's. real I remember Hunter Biden who was my. neighbor for many years telling me more. than once when Biden was vice president. how much they despised Barack Obama he. despised Barack Obama well what he did. to Joe Biden in 2016 a man who'd run for. president twice who thought it was his. Birthright to then be the nominee in in. 16 to say we're going with Hillary. Clinton. that that that in the Biden family. that's that's as bad as it gets that's.

as treacherous as it gets so uh uh and. then in 2020 he didn't really support. him until he had to when you know when. it was just him and Bernie so so Obama. had to worry and this is why Pelosi was. singular if it hadn't been for Nancy. Pelosi I don't think this would have. happened he had to not get Biden's. backup Biden had to see this as as. inevitable but not um but not uh embar. but minimizing the embarrassment and so.

Obama was very careful to not be and. done like to be public anyway at this. point but he was careful to not have. Biden think that he was engineering. it but he was he was he was strategizing. about how do we put the pressure on him. publicly and privately and how do we end. up with the strongest possible nominee. boy this is not a Sentimental group I've. noticed I mean loyalty personal. affection long-lasting friendship. assuming that even exists in that world.

none of them play any role in any of. this um I think there's some affection. between Bill Clinton and Joe Biden well. I'm sure um so there's some there I mean. this is high stakes politics I don't. think I don't think that Nancy. Pelosi I don't know this from her so I'm. I'm speculating based on just observing. her and knowing her a little bit I don't. think that she took pleasure in this I. think she felt bad for him so in that. sense I think there was some Humanity to. it there was just a problem that had to.

be solved they they they were they were. trying to switch from zero chance to win. to a decent chance to win and so I don't. I don't I don't know that there's room. for sentimentality that that would stand. in the way of that so they call on her. to bring the dog to the vet to put him. down well they didn't really call on her. she stepped up because she saw in. Clyburn and and Jeff and Schumer and. Obama and Clinton both clintons she. didn't see sufficient effort and the. Clock Was ticking did you see I just I.

know I'm fixated on this but I I am. fixated on it did you see prior to June. of this year any story in any major news. Outlet saying Hey Joe Biden's going to. lose. well in my own work yeah okay you've. been exiled from world I mean no because. they they couldn't I mean you saw. stories in this before before they. agreed to debate you saw stories that. said his fundraising was a real problem.

you saw stories that said uh he was. having you know problems in like New. Hampshire and Virginia and New Mexico. and Minnesota you saw stories saying um. uh uh he was having problems with over. the Israel war you even saw the Press. covering immigration like they' never. covered it before not not the way they. would if it were on the other foot you. saw the coverage of inflation yeah you. saw there the cover. part of why he had to agree to the. debate was the coverage was was they.

turned on to an extent not to an extent. they were trying to drive him out of the. race except for a few Communists but. yeah the coverage of Biden from February. or so onward was quite negative so we. just got back from a month on the road. coast to coast and everywhere in between. 16 cities in 30 days and I've got to say. almost everyone on our team looked. suspiciously well rested every morning. as we got back on the plane it turns out. most of them are using a product called. Sosa which is one of the sponsors of our.

tour sambrosa Blends antihistamine with. a syrup of herbs and honey and is. designed to help you sleep well waking. up feeling refreshed and revitalized and. based on the sunny cheerful faces of the. people I work with it works it's. inexpensive it's less than 50 cents a. night and we know the people who own the. company and they are great people they. are faithful people and they are about. the happiest family we've ever run. across the product Sosa has a ton of. five-star reviews you can check it out. on their website.

sos.com how what's the underlying. illness that he suffers from no idea why. don't how crazy is that that a nation on. the cusp of nuclear war which we are to. this day could have a commanderin-chief. suffering from some illness and nobody. demands to Crazy find out what it is. crazy and and the fact that the fact. that I mean again this goes to the Press. cor part of the conspiracy. his doctor was never made available to. answer questions that is standard they a.

Parkinson specialist Comm in yeah. although that the facts on that are. still a bit murky but but well they're. totally murky yeah but but but how how. they could. explain to any White House reporter. satisfaction why they weren't given. access to the president's doctor I can't. understand it just should have been an. alarm Bell and they should have brought. the briefing room to a halt we demand to. talk to the president's doctor as we've. talked to past presidents doctors when. this President spoke to a dead. congresswoman we need to access the.

president's doctor just the way the. stiff leg walking and everything just. you turn the sound off and you could. tell that there was a Prof Amer and the. American people knew it and that's why. you know I forget the exact numbers but. like 70% said he shouldn't be running. you know it's like there's a reason. why the the the Press had to say the. emperor looked fantastic in his new. clothes not you know I like the shirt. but I don't like the pants they had to. be all in on the emperor looked. fantastic because they couldn't they.

couldn't show any weakness I like the. shirt but not the pants exactly it. couldn't show any weakness why because. they couldn't do anything to be accused. of helping Trump. win what it's not my imagination this is. the Press has always obviously been. liberal always been sympathetic to. Democrats but this posture of like total. denial of absolute B lie deception. that's a new thing it's a new thing it's.

it's covering Trump's. heart and and and just as people on the. right I'll say again have have are. revolted by the the the slanted press. coverage the lawfare um the unequal. treatment I think people on the left. have have proper grievance about the. things Trump has done that are again. antithetical to a lot of what americ. America stands for they're they're right. about that he's hard to cover but but.

the but the way that most of the press. has chosen to deal with it is to just. focus on the negative aspects of trump. and disregard the Grievances of the. other side but honesty just I mean even. leaving aside the ideology or how you. think Trump fits into American history. just like I don't know if it's raining. out you can't say it's sunny out because. that's lying I agree but but but they. they they're besides liberal media bias. and besides just the emotional Trump. derangement syndrome they've decided.

that January 11th and stormmy Daniels. and documents at Mar Lago and his. comments about. immigrants. are more. important are are so important that they. have to uh cover those the exclusion of. Americans being killed by people in the. country illegally that's just what. they've. decided is there any sense from within. those big media organizations that. they're they've committed.

suicide no they're they're uh their. cultural personal institutional. orientation is towards covering the news. for half the. country that's what they do but it as a. business it's like they' they've. destroyed themselves that's my read on. it anyway and I worked for all those. companies I mean the New York Times has. created whle and recipes so they haven't. destroyed themselves. um there's always going to be a demand. for news and you know they all adapted. like you know as you and I discussed.

they adapted way too late but there. there there's it's a it's an industry. and crisis but some of the Legacy. players are finding their way towards. yeah digital survival so I don't think. they're all going to disappear and I. think they'll for sure but there the. weaker ones CBS I think NB I mean CBS is. like almost done I think NBC CNN I don't. think they have Bright Futures but you. know I could be wrong they'll have to. they'll have to you know very late in. the game adapt to digital sales and and.

and different models besides people. paying for subscriptions people paying. for advertising or Cable Systems paying. for Carriage they'll have to they'll. have to find different sources of. revenue and they'll have to make. products that appeal to enough audiences. that there's there's there's just Mass. there but somebody's got to fill the. assigned the intended role of the media. which is to inform the public about. things factual things yeah um yeah it's. it's a crisis and not just a crisis in.

America obviously other countries have. this problem but but there is a market. for news people do want news you have to. have it yeah so so we just need whether. it's Legacy places that find their way. or new places like what you're doing. what I'm doing that that that say we're. going to make money off of quality. content that some number of people like. and we're going to find business models. that work and we're not going to be. wedded to the old business models which. is just not going to support journalism.

how long were you at ABC from ' 87 to. 2007 long time how many years is that. that's about 20ish years no it's uh 97. 2007 um did you ever think that you. would be part of Independent Media I. never did I mean I loved working for a. big powerful you know one of the most. powerful news organizations in the world. uh and I assumed I always would and uh. and I still think there's some value in.

it I mean you and I both now do things. for ourselves and with our small merry. bands that before 17 people would have. been working on we never would have had. to think about it but it's a small price. to pay to not be freed from the the. downsides of being you know in an. institution where you can't do what you. think's right you know some of the time. at least or best not necessarily right. but best like. what looking back can you give examples. of things that you couldn't do that you. think you should have been allowed to do.

um file more Freedom of Information Act. requests uh even if they were going to. annoy people we covered so if somebody. said well we're trying to book that. person you know as a great guest so. please don't file that Freedom of. Information Act request that happened a. few times yeah now there was another. Equity involved for the organization. right they wanted a booking more than my. fishing Expedition on a foia um but I I. I will say that that's that's an example. I could give a few others but but I was. blessed when I worked for ABC when I.

worked for Time Magazine when I worked. for Bloomberg I was blessed with a fair. amount of autonomy so I was never told. by corporate the corporate side what to. say I was rarely told don't pursue. something because of another Equity I. gave you an one of the examples but it's. more just uh you know you know putting. on a TV show at a major Network like 200. people are touching the product right it. just it's just a hard Bureau y to to to. to be super creative in but it also. produces you know from a production.

point of view quality stuff that's a. tradeoff it I'm not imagining without. getting into it I this is my read you. may disagree I think in the end you are. very severely punished for demanding to. think for yourself um that's my view of. it but I don't think you're the only one. who was yeah it did seem like a. systematic cleansing of anybody in media. not even it wasn't even a Left Right. divide it was like I felt it was a. testosterone divide but it was to people. like no no no I think this is right I'm.

going to pursue it those people are all. gone I just have noticed well I mean it. depends on on the category I think. people particularly people who challenge. the left I think are are more. susceptible to that you think you know. uh I mean I Rachel mattow says stuff. that's out there she criticizes her own. network sometimes she pursues stories. she's interesting she has a lot of power. and autonomy um and there are other. examples of that to her credit I've.

always I disagree with everything Rachel. mat says but I have always admired that. about her yeah but she's she's kind of. the exception there are others but she's. one of the exceptions that proves the. rule most most people don't want to. cross the Orthodoxy or or their. corporate. bosses and and in that sense they're not. so different than you know working for. JP Morgan Chase or working for Boeing. like there's not a lot of of stepping. out of line the difference is of course. to State the obvious that we're in. journalists are in a business of.

truthtable to the public interest and. sometimes that has to be you know either. your own employer or sometimes it's. liberal Democrats well it's got to be. that way though it's inherent like. that's why we have first amendment. protection like the system is set up. with a free press at the really at the. center of the Enterprise in my opinion. so where where are we 5 years 10 years. from now I thought there was going to. more joking around in this episode yeah. no I'm just interested the grimmest. episode of your program ever uh let's.

play paper football or something to. shake up the mood I mean I'm a big. believer in finding consumers who want. quality and that that can happen Dev. independent of of ideology you know my. new platform you know we've not started. making a ton of money yet but but it. explicitly tries to appeal to people not. just Centrist moderates and independents. but people on the left and the right and. I'm hoping that there is a market for. that that is different than the. conventional wisdom which is the only.

way to make money is to go hard left or. hard of course right be the New York. Times yeah um but how does it work uh we. bring uh people on who are willing to. talk about the country in a way that's. not uh politics of personal destruction. I say our model is peace love and. understanding and then we open it up to. citizens from across the country and so. far organically Democrats Republicans. Trump supporters Trump enemies all come. on and they all talk and they're.

supposed to talk in a way that is. respectful and if somebody's disagreeing. with you I say learn from them rather. than say this platform is too prot Trump. well is your opportunity to hear from. prot Trump people or this Pro this. platform is too proh haris listen to. them talk and that it almost doesn't. exist in America today it what's the. business model for that um well it's a. platform that's not just about politics. it's it's eventually we're going to. expand to sports and music and WR. writers it's called two-way all.

communication almost all communication. is one way right it's you talking or. writing a substack or writing a book or. cable news we bring people together with. the people they want to hear from and so. if if you get the best parenting experts. in the world or NFL quarterbacks or. great musicians that people are super. fans of sponsorships payments Super Fan. payments to to to that are higher than. what they pay for a normal access. through live video and then eventually.

uh the ability to be the place to people. come for for two-way conversations but. in politics it has the additional. element of all voices Under One Roof and. I have so hardened when people. say liberals will say I understand why. people are for Trump more than I ever. have the other day we had on uh just by. coincidence we didn't book them two. young black men both live in Manhattan. or live in New York City both of. explained extraordinarily well why. they're for Trump and why they don't. like the Democratic party and that and.

they were listened to respectfully and. they liberals could ask them questions. that just doesn't exist anywhere else no. it doesn't so I got to say that's. consistent with my personal experience. of black men specifically not that I'm. around black men all the time but. actually fairly regularly yeah don't. know that many black men who are. Republicans but I know zero black men. who are liberals not one I can't last. time I met one yeah is that that seems. like a trend if the if the anecdotal is.

even close to True Trump will break the. record among support from black men I. mean he'll smash it if the anecdotal is. close to true it just it's all over. social media it's all over my platform. it's all over every story I hear and. part of it you know I'll give you a. couple of of of elements of this that I. think is important part of it is Trump. has always had a peel with kind of a. macho Rich pretty white yeah has that. but it's also you know this example of. bias coverage the Press says when Trump.

says some young black men identify with. him and their parents because he's been. persecuted the Press says that's. racist my experience is just true they. get the fact that that that the legal. system comes after people unfairly and. if it can happen to trump it can happen. to them and it has happened to them and. their family and their communities and. then lastly they they the failure of. liberals to make life in cities for poor. kids better is also a massive Scandal.

another Scandal is that the Republican. Party hasn't done anything to capitalize. on it and create uh competition to be. mayors of these cities sure but but when. Trump says I'm for Criminal Justice. Reform and I'm for fixing schools and. I'm for creating more Economic. Opportunity he did Criminal Justice. Reform the other stuff you know his. record is spotty but but he's saying as. he said in 2016 when people moned him. what do you have to lose these young. black men say the Democratic party. offers nothing to me Trump might offer.

something to me and he's done Criminal. Justice. Reform I think I think again you could. be the most partisan Democrat in the. world if you can defend the performance. of the democratic party to helping young. black men good luck but what's I I agree. with everything that you said but what's. interesting is that black voters. including black men are not just like. part of the democratic Coalition they're. the basis of the party's moral Authority. after what after black women they're. number two in terms of yes degree of.

support right but in terms of the story. that Democrats tell themselves about why. they're right and why they're better. than their opponents it's all about. Black people we've saved black people Y. and so how do they like what's it like. if you're a Democratic party if you're. Ron Clan and you all of a sudden all the. black guys are against you and for Trump. that must be mindblowing well of all the. sort of uh Canary and the coal mine of. those who believe as some of my sources. in both parties do that Harris is about.

to lose and maybe somewhat decisively. she's spending three days maybe four. days at the end of The Campaign spending. the majority of her time courting black. men that's that's. mind-blowing so what did they say they. say they're a little bit in denial about. the causes of it but they but they're. not in denial about how big a problem is. again Testament to when have you seen a. Democratic presidential candidate with. 20 days to go spending her time day. after day recording black men but it's.

just weird because the one thing that. everyone on planet Earth knew about. Donald Trump was that he was a racist. that's the one I mean that line was I. mean that was the summary of trump so I. had a I had a black woman who's who's. lives in New York also who came on my. platform the other day and when she was. confronted I I connected her to an older. black gentleman who's a Harris supporter. and he said how can you support the man. who. uh led the birther movement how can you. support the man who denied knowing who. David Duke was and she said how about.

Joe Biden he's of that generation too. hanging around with STM Thurman. supporting the crime bill you you know. her view was Joe Biden's got a racist. pass too I'm not going to I'm not going. to decide who to vote for based on. allegations about who's bigger. racist it's it's just interesting of all. the candidates in the history of. American politics for Donald Trump yeah. to increase the share of the black vote. and the Hispanic vote well big time in. that way and again the liberal press.

would say how could Hispanics support a. guy who's been so racist in his rhetoric. about the border and of course as you. know we're talking about people who've. came here legally and don't like to be. lumped in with people who um who who who. support more open border and of even. people who came here to legally and. benefit illegally corre who benefit from. the 86 amnesty for example correct and. also people who think bacon costs too. much yeah well exactly yeah amazing so. why did you said at the outset that.

everyone's telling us this is going to. be an extraordinarily close election you. don't believe that well it might be I. just I just think it's not a foreg gun. conclusion because I think seven. Battleground States six or maybe all. seven could go to one candidate they. could in other words if one of them wins. the seven states or six of seven. narrowly by our recent standards that. would be an electoral college Landslide. and I think that could happen I think. whatever Dynamics exist there'll be some. variation state to state but if Trump.

won all seven I wouldn't be surprised if. she won all seven I wouldn't be. surprised and if that happens it's not. going to be. close I was talking to a member of. Congress uh just a few hours ago who. said I'm totally convinced this election. will not be called within a week of. election day will not be not be yeah I. mean if it's close it won't be there'll. be litigation and there'll be you know. all the normal second guessing our. elections are decentralized and really. messy and although there were efforts to. fix that after 2000 it's just the.

American. way and in some of these states like in. Pennsylvania the state gives incredible. difference to the counties to figure out. how they want to run things it's a. commonwealth yeah and I think I think. there's a real equal protection. questions we saw that in Florida in 2000. like is it fair to one County compared. to another County or the State of. Florida compared to the other states. that they count differently it's it's a. it's a great it's got political. implications that are messy but it's a. great 10th Amendment question so in what.

sense are they count differently you. know when you can start counting. different types of ballots and what the. rules are for accepting ballots that. have errors in them you know like if one. county says well they said 2023 but they. meant 2024 we're going to count that. because we know who cares what the. outside addresses like one County counts. it and the other doesn't is that fair to. to the voters you know that equal. protection um and and even if the rules. aren't different just as a matter of.

course say well in this County they. stopped counting at midnight because the. election supervisor said we have too. many votes to count we're going to go. home and in this County they kept. counting and so now is there some chain. of custody question in the county where. the where the people went home and said. they'll come back in at 9:00 we just. don't have uniform rules that's just the. way America is so I mean I would say my. base case unlike everybody else's my B. cases will know by the next day because. I think more likely than that it won't.

be close but if your person's right a. week would be delightful if it was only. a week could be significantly longer. because once litigation. starts it never stops and this time the. Democrats are are as lowered up as the. Republicans in 2020 the Bush campaign. said we're only going to do florid I'm. sorry in 2000 they said we're only going. to do Florida we think there's stuff in. New Mexico we could do there's stuff in. a few other states they said no we're. just and the gore the gore people went.

along with that that won't happen this. time all seven states will be litigated. if if if the if the out recap those. states are uh the recap the States. they're the three great lake States. Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and. then the four sunbal states Georgia. North Carolina Arizona and the state. where Las Vegas is that I can't. pronounce correctly so I never do it's. Nevada like Vlad and it's Nevada and in. the last say 30 years I grew up going to. Nevada yeah and we had a house in Nevada.

and everyone called it that and now they. will yell at you for calling it that. they've renamed it I have a mental block. about it I say it wrong every time even. though I think I'm saying right they're. so judgy about they are very judgy. that's why I don't even risk saying I. call it the Silver State or the state. where Las Vegas is Harry Reed's Old. State MC airport countyny can say about. it uh Reno in the north um so we just go. through those really quick and sure and. love to get your view of where the race. is and let's just start with Nevada yeah.

um it's the hardest one um uh the Trump. people think they're going to win it and. the Democrats think they're going to win. it uh uh abortion unions the ghost of. Harry Reid which they still site so I. would say there's consensus uh amongst. my sources that of the seven states it's. it's um it's Harris's best. but I wouldn't be surprised if Trump won. it economy's horrible inflation's been. horrible housing's horrible uh he's got.

of course a presence in Clark County uh. a lot of rural vote so um uh it's her. best of the seven well he's taking Elco. we know that yes Elco his but the change. in you know Clark countyy is very very. heavily Hispanic yeah now yeah and the. change in voting patterns of Hispanic. voters or at least what we think is the. change that's kind of what they're. banking on they are um and and they're. banking on the economy um and she's not.

uh she's she's a Westerner right but. people there don't like Californians you. know typically there's for a good reason. yeah so again I think it's right that. it's his least likely of the seven but. he there reasons to think he could win. it and um you know the biggest thing she. has going for is is probably is is the. unions yeah and and and whether that's. that's a union and a location where the. gap between the leadership and the. ranking file is smaller there's reason. to believe that she'll you know she'll.

do well Unite Here and the yeah the big. Casino workers unions so I would say. again her best state but but a state. Trump can still win okay let's move New. Mexico no Arizona New Mexico is blue uh. Arizona is probably Trump's best of the. seven um if there's a state she'll give. up on and I don't think she will because. she's got so much money and there's only. seven and she's got to fly outest ask. you to pause just can you summarize the.

where the money stands as of right now. um relative so originally uh uh her. money Advantage uh the Democrats money. Advantage early on when Trump was having. trouble raising money was significant. then they had a money Advantage but not. dispositive it's now potentially. dispositive um not so much for the ads. although that matters too but for. organizing she just she has she she's. raised a billion dollars since she got. in the race that's extraordinary and. that doesn't include like the outside.

money that's that's not directly TI. she's raised a billion dollars yeah. since she got in the race she's raised. more for her campaign and for the party. committees that she controls uh then. Trump has raised the whole campaign so. it you know typically when you're at. raise As Trump said in in 16 they have. enough to win they they won't have as. much money but they'll have enough to. win it maybe he doesn't I'm not saying. for sure but her financial advantage. over the last 3 weeks is considerable. where's all that money coming from uh.

Grassroots and rich people one of the. biggest mysteries in politics for the. last 20 years has been democrat's. capacity to raise big money online. compared to Republicans jimie Harrison. who's now chair of the democratic party. ran against Lindsey Graham in South. Carolina no chance to win not a. particularly good candidate nice guy but. not you know not not some so many people. thought I'll give money because I'll be. president someday he raised like $110. million that's more than Marco Rubio who.

should be a good web fundraiser social. media fundraiser raised when he ran for. president they just are great at raising. money from small dollar doners part of. it was they started earlier with the. thing act blue but it doesn't explain it. and and I talk to people about it all. the time I can't explain it but that's a. big part of why Trump's being outrage. and if they hadn't kept indicting him. he'd be even more desperate and then. there's people writing big checks wa if. they hadn't kept indicting him he. wouldn't have raised as much money Trump. raised you know a lot of his online. money in the wake of all the legal stuff.

like literally on the days of. indictments the days of bookings court. dates that was a great equalizer for him. to raise more money but but he's badly. outraised uh but again I don't think. it's dispositive it might be it might be. dispositive but I don't think it will be. I think Trump has just enough and the. Democratic party has rich people so does. the Republican the big disparity is not. the rich people the big disparity is the. small. dollars interesting there's some.

disparity right there's three kinds of. money there's there's small dollars. social media and online there's bundlers. people writing checks of you know 3,900. whatever it is now and then there's. people writing super pack checks for you. know 10 million or you know less um. Trump trump is is is doing is is I think. being outraised in all three categories. is my guess but I think the biggest uh. discrepancy is the one that's the most. valuable which is the low dollars. because it's it's it's it's people can.

continue to give to. you and for that money the Harris. campaign gets what more TV ads more. digital ads more field organizers more. offices more get out the vote operations. uh more of lawn signs I've noticed more. lawn signs uh and and more surrogate. travel you know just more of all the. stuff you can spend money on and and. again no one's. criticizing uh their operation in terms.

of how they're going about turning. people at voting early voting by mail. and then on Election Day getting people. to the polls they their team led by the. woman who's running the campaign J Mali. Dylan who's an organizer by by trade um. they're they're that's an advantage so. in other words more money spent wisely. it's a big. Advantage so you think Trump probably. does have an advantage in Arizona yes. it's his just say as the Silver State is. her best of the seven my sources agree. that Arizona is the best his best of the. seven all right let's move East um.

Georgia um it's a it's a it's a tougher. one um he's Trump is ahead Trump is. favored I think if Georgia will will. will be would be the the fifth or sixth. State she won if she's if she's doing. really well in other words if she wins. Georgia it means she's going to. win uh all the Great Lake States and and. probably um uh the Silver State as well.

um so it's it's probably Trump's third. best of them probably and um uh and I'd. make him the favorite there and my. Democratic sources today would make him. the favorite there as well okay there's. there is a reality of democratic. politics in in southern states which is. if you can increase the the percentage. of the vote that comes from black vote. which is called the contribution to the. vote so what percentage of the number. people who vote are black and you can. and she can get her numbers back up to. where Democrats typically are two big.

ifs she'll win um but Trump is is doing. well with the young black men there and. you know the normal way he wins States. running up in exurbs and rural areas um. all of the seven states have a. pro-choice energy in the two Western. States there's ballot measures that will. help there there aren't in the in the in. the five others but Georgia you know the. Atlanta metro area is very pro-choice a. lot of suburban women so some.

combination of of her swelling black. vote holding her own with black vote uh. and Suburban voters particularly women. she could win it but Trump is the. favorite there okay so we've named three. so far North Carolina uh it's funny the. vice president herself I'm told and and. a lot of her AIDS have been very bullish. on North Carolina as the Lynch pin for. replacing Pennsylvania if if they lose. Pennsylvania I have one Republican. Source who I trust immensely regarding. North Carolina who says no way Trump.

loses it so the storm is a variable no. no way to know who that helps or hurt. the the governor's race is a bit of a. variable but my source now I I trust the. ones who say Trump is likely to win. North Carolina but vice president's put. a ton of time in there and I think. she'll continue to because they need a a. hedge against losing Pennsylvania now. Pennsylvania does has more electoral. vote so if it's just a swap if Trump. wins the three Sun Bel States and. Pennsylvania and she wins North Carolina.

Wisconsin and and uh Michigan she loses. so so if she if she wins Michigan and. and Wisconsin and North Carolina but. loses Pennsylvania she needs one of the. other three Sun Bel States but North. Carolina is the largest and and and and. and the same as Georgia same number but. that's kind of the Lynch pin for them so. that's the biggest mystery they're very. Democrats very bullish on it Republicans. believe that it'll be trumps in the end. interesting yeah what about Wisconsin um.

was was considered her best of the seven. until she started to slip there in the. last couple weeks and it's always been a. close State um uh Trump had his. convention there a lot of rural vote. there um a lot of the social issues cut. for Trump there less pro-choice State. than some of the others so I would say. if you the combination of my sources as. a slight favorite to Harris but if. Trump's running running the rest of the.

table he'll win Wisconsin I thought the. whole point of Tim Walls was to shore up. support in a place like Wisconsin. running mates really don't make a. difference yeah they just don't as long. as you pick someone who the public says. is ready to be president it's really. very. marginal um that leaves Michigan. Michigan um so it's a little bit of a. crosscurrent there because it's it's. kind of The Bluest of this of of the. seven states but she's got problem with. labor she's got problem with black men. she's got problem with um Union uh with.

uh Arab American and Muslim American. voters and she's not gone there until. recently just the last couple days and. done the things that the locals there. demand like the local Democrats say you. have to go to union halls you have to be. doing you know black barber shops you. have to be um figuring out how to make. peace with the Arab American and Muslim. American so she's done those things the. last few days um I would say um it's a. must-win for her it's not a must-win for.

Trump but uh I'd make it at this point. her just like in Wisconsin a mild. favorite and finally penl yeah so it is. said P the winner of Pennsylvania will. win it's said by everyone all the time. yeah it's almost certainly true I'm. goingon to do a two-hour show called. it's all about Pennsylvania because it. sort of is now I say Trump can win. without Pennsylvania and she can win. without Pennsylvania and it's not. far-fetched they both have reasonable.

paths without it so people shouldn't say. it's all about it but certainly the. winner of Pennsylvania as a matter of. demographics and electoral college math. is in the driver's. seat the other person has has kind of. has to um circumvent conventional wisdom. about where these states are to make up. for the loss of Pennsylvania and Trump. is ahead and he's been ahead for a while. now ahead within the margin of error but. if you're consistently ahead even within. the margin of error you know no one.

thinks these states are going to be won. by seven points so she's got demographic. problems there changing her position on. fracking was absolutely essential uh. whether people believed it or not she. couldn't have won being against fracking. it's not as big a deal throughout the. state as people think but in a part of. of the state it's a very big deal so I. make Trump the favorite there as as do. most of my Democratic sources but she's. spending an unprecedented amount of. money she'll continue to work at there. um has a Democratic governor it has two.

Democratic senators it's it's it's more. of a blue state in terms of Statewide. office than a red State Trump won it. once and lost it once but he's showing. strength there with white workingclass. voters with older voters with black men. uh with the Hispanic uh suburbs uh. around Philly so um it's it's uh and and. that's and that's a place because Biden. was born in Pennsylvania and so. associated with it that's a place where. trading out Biden for Harris was. probably a downgrade for them that.

they're Biden Biden you know at least on. paper had a better chance than she does. well he's of course the loyal son of. yeah Pennsylvania yeah he had his own. problems though they've also not been a. super uh big state about electing women. to Statewide office compared to some. other states for whatever reason um and. she's a California liberal you know one. of the things I don't think we've. discussed in our brief talk. is she's really liberal right she really. liberal she's culturally liberal she's.

economically liberal and she's not done. a sister Soldier she's not fleshed out a. portrait of who she is except for saying. she's a capitalist in a way that uh has. resonated with a lot of these undecided. voters and you see that in Pennsylvania. as much as anywhere else they just they. see her for what she is and that's not. really what Pennsylvania is their. governor is a pretty moderate Democrat. and as we did say at the outset or you. said she hasn't really I mean if I'm KLA. Harris and I'm from San Francisco by way.

of. Montreal I'm going to make some effort. to convince people I'm not as liberal as. they think I am she doesn't hasn't done. a ton of that well she's she's done. small things on the margins uh and not. not put them in sharp relief so that. everybody would hear them because again. she's she's she's cautious and and. indecisive so she really hasn't and and. it's a it's you know time short and and.

of course anything she does now will be. seen by some voters as crav of course. you know um what's the spread between. the publicly available polls and the. so-called internal polling of the. campaigns like how different are those. numbers um depends on you know which. apple and which orange you're comparing. but I would say uh just like a back of. the envelope super rough thing Trump. like you know two points stronger in a. lot of the private polls not in every. state but in some of the states than in. the public polls what accounts for that.

the public polls are done on the cheap. and of all the ways newsrooms have cut. back poll the polling budgets take a big. hit right so a poll is only good if. likely voters if you know who a likely. voter is right and the simplest. explanation is if you say I want my poll. to have 40% Democrats okay because. that's what I think the electorate is. going to be so I think a poll that's. good that has of likely voters 40% of my. respondents are going to be Democrats so. which Democrats are going to fill the.

slots because you're you're under. pressure to finish the poll as quickly. as possible you want 400 respondents say. uh the longer it takes the more money it. cost because you're paying for the call. center to continue to make calls so the. Democrats who are most likely to fill. the slot are better educated Democrats. who are more likely to pick up a phone. or answer an online survey and say I'm a. Democrat and I'm participating those. wealthier Democrats and better educated. Democrats because those are the. particularly better educated are the are. is the is the is the way is a single.

trait by which you can most easily tell. if they're a Harris voter or a trump V. voter they're going to fill the slots so. you you say Okay 40% are Democrats so I. I haven't I'm not over representing. Democrats you are representing Democrats. who are more likely to vote for Harris. than Democrats who are likely to vote. for Trump and that single variable is is. according to my sources probably the. main reason why the private polling. which is more expensively done and wants. an needs an accurate poll so they know.

how to make decisions about the campaign. compared to the public polls which just. want to get the poll done so they can. publish it for publicity they're not. looking to be accurate they're looking. to get it done as cheaply as. possible it's more expensive to do. private polls K Harris just as you said. raised over a billion dollars yeah I. asked where that money went I should. have pointed out that the Consultants I. have noticed just having known. consultants for 30 years are richer than. they've ever been and I'm not sure the. public understands just how rich some I.

don't think it's true they richer than. they've ever been oh really yeah maybe. I'm just noticing I'll tell you one one. some of them are not flying commercial. anymore yeah so a lot of I think a lot. of the change and I don't know like. dollar per dollar like are they making. 47 cents on the dollar compared to. before but I can tell you the Bush. campaign really changed the culture in. one in one very fundamental way the. people who make the ads used to get what. was called a percentage of the bond. right and and that was ridiculous like.

15% 15% so Bush negotiated them down to. like 1% or something he also said uh you. know salaries are going to be controlled. then when John pedesta was chair of. Hillary's campaign in 2016 he said if. you're one of the many people traveling. between DC and New York you're going to. take the bus for 12 bucks as opposed to. the train or the plane again that was a. very big kind of cultural thing of we're. just not going to waste the campaign's. money on either spending or salar so my. sense is that Consultants don't make.

what they used to particularly ad buyers. but my sense is even pollsters don't. make what they used to but they do they. do make a lot and they spend a lot on. polls which is why they're better. they're just there's a it's it's a. qualit it's not a quantitative. difference it's a qualitative difference. to say we need an accurate poll so we. know how to make decisions about this. race so a billion dollars gets dumped. into one just one side of one race in. the final months and no one's getting. rich off that they're getting rich I. don't think the Consultants themselves. are making as much as they used to.

that's my impression interesting the. Consultants I covered early in my career. were like millionaires who had like. their own planes and vacation houses. most of them aren't a few are but most. of them now they just don't they just. kind of change the culture of how much. consultants get paid what do you make of. and at you know our age is it. bewildering to you to see the the. shuffling of the parties you know Dick. Cheney and his daughter. now campaigning for Harris endorsed.

Harris yeah and then you see a bunch of. people you thought you know Bobby. Kennedy right um campaigning for Trump. like what do you make of that well I'll. probably anger some viewers here by. saying I don't think you can attribute. what the chaines did to anything but. their belief in the unfitness of Donald. Trump to be president and and and. growing somewhat from January 6 I don't. think the Chinese are going to get rich. off of this oh no I don't think they. want jobs I don't think I don't I mean I.

think it's possible Liz would take one. but I don't think she's doing it for. that at all uh I don't think they hate. Donald Trump for some past greet. personal grievance I really do believe. that they think what January 6 and and. related things and challenging the. election say about Trump's character. make him unfit for the job and they're. willing to support someone who's. position on issues they find to be you. know socialist or worse so I think they. I mean I know them and my take is that.

what they care about is not January 6. they care about. war and the foreign policy stuff I don't. I disagree I think I think that matters. to them in terms of of Ukraine and we. haven't talked about the forever Wars. that's something you and I see eye to. eye on and and I think another huge. blind spot of the dominant media is is. is the is the America's bipartisan from. Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump. disain for the forever Wars and I know. the Chinese disagree with that point of. view but I don't think that's what.

motivating the may I I think I think. they they um and again this won't be. popular with everyone watching us but. they they they think that that Trump. makes the planet less safe by not being. supportive of Ukraine and and and not uh. challenging Putin as aggressively as. they'd like they definitely think that. yeah but I don't think that's what I. don't think I don't think I don't think. the the the um the characterization of. them as warmongers or lovers of the.

military-industrial complex I just think. they have a different point of view. about how to keep the planet and the. country. safe well they certainly I mean I think. both are true yeah well both are true. meaning they care about January 6 and. they care about wars War well I think. it's overwhelmingly War I think that in. their minds they are keeping you know an. international order that's been very. effective intact and Donald Trump. challenges that order and that. challenges in their opinion like a ma a.

massive threat to the world right well I. and I think that's sincere they think. that well but I also think they're War. monkers the same words like I think they. think they have high motives they may be. high motives but I also think that you. know the root of their power is is. planning War like that's what makes them. feel Godlike I dis I agree with you on. the substance of their objection I. disagree with you about that being uh. for Liz at least uh uh whatever what's.

the opposite of subordinate uh over. January 6 I think January 6 really. matters to her a lot I just do in terms. of characterizing them as warmongers I I. I just I just don't agree if I. understand the term I don't I don't. think they love War I don't think they I. don't think they profit from the. military-industrial complex I don't. think think they're on the boards of. Defense contractors or or they're. looking age much deeper than that yeah. but they but they but they are they just.

have a they have a very different. conception than Donald Trump and then a. lot of the American people about how to. keep us safe their view of how to keep. us safe is to get us into endless Wars. yeah I completely no no I completely. agree with you yeah um and I never. thought I thought all the halberton. stuff was absurd I and also a shallow. analysis because I think it's I think. it's actually much worse than. that but whatever well I mean I think. it's worse in the sense that that um.

they take their intellect and their. worldview and they lock us into the loss. of American lives and great cost and. hurt our reputation around the world. exactly the opposite of what they think. but I don't question their in case of. the chenies I don't question their. belief uh it's it's it's not connected. self-interest I I I completely agree the. reason I'm saying it's worse is because. it derives not from greed but from.

hubris and I think that's much scarier. than greed yeah and in other words if. you think you have powers that no human. possesses for example the power to. foresee the consequences of a big. decision that you make yeah you know a. rational person by rational I mean. someone informed by humility which is. you know a realistic understanding of. the limits of his power yep you do. something big like invade a country. country and an honest person says I have. no freaking idea really what happens. next and the chines because they are. like everyone in DC bipartisan seized.

with this crazy hubus they're like no no. I know exactly what's going to happen. right this will start a domino effect. where democracy takes root in the Middle. East and like that's insane well the. fact is we do know what's going to. happen if we look at history it'll end. badly EXA we do know the only thing I. don't like about when you say warmongers. is to me warmonger means somebody who. relishes sending the US to war and maybe. profits from it or does it because. they're insufficiently concerned about. the welfare of the country no no no I'm. saying just I'm I'm I'm saying something.

slightly different that which is someone. who believes that the most important. thing he does and I think 90% of. Republican Senators feel this way for. example um is sort of managed the world. yeah and is convinced that he's doing a. good job and this is like a high calling. and he understands again consequences. which no human can. so that's deeply offensive to me because. I think it's like stupid and corrupt on. the most basic level you don't. understand the limits of of human.

foresight and that's a massive problem. yeah and and again history makes it. pretty clear and and it infuriates me. when people say Trump hates NATO Trump. wants to destroy NATO he doesn't he. wants to reform it so that it's fair to. American taxpayers and that its Mission. matches up with our security needs I. totally agree I by contrast do hate NATO. and like to destroy it so I'm the. radical Trump is totally moderate on. this I agree with you I mean I I I would. only want to keep it if it were really. reformed but I think there's a I think.

there is still purpose for it there. could be but man does it hurt the. countries that uh participate in my. opinion it eliminates their sovereignty. and foreign troops on your soil like. that's a big thing yeah the problem is. they just don't have an there's there's. it's the best arrangement for maximizing. our safety. even even with all the flaws if it if it. were reformed it would be it would be it. would be it even flawed it's probably. still the best arrangement but if it.

were reformed I think it clearly would. be well Europe is Western Europe is done. um its economy is in in shambles well. but it's not going. away being sold to the Martians I it's. still going to be filled with invaded. Finnish and belgians and Dutch it's all. going to be there you know as someone. who's part finish that it hurts me even. to hear the word finish because I just. think. that was a country that had sovereignty. that earned it yeah by beating you know. one of the world's great powers in an. actual battle the winter war of 1940 and.

they just gave it up to Nato and they're. going to just really suffer as a result. but I mean would the world be better if. they all had their own robust. armies no I mean but I I you know navies. and Air Force and you know you you could. easily Envision like Regional. cooperation between say the four Nordic. countries r or Eastern why is but why is. that better than a a a continent wide uh. Force to deal with the realities which.

is Russia and China are going to. threaten us for a long time but it's not. continent wide actually it's there's. just an extension of a far away Empire. that doesn't have any of their interests. and you know at heart and uh and and. also it it degrades the spirit of a. country to have foreign on soil I agree. with that you look at England and it's. like why why is it collapsing so fast. and I think a lot of that is and I don't. think anyone meant to do this actually I. think a lot of the worst things that.

happen to your very wise and true point. about the Chinese I think they think. they're doing the right thing yeah yeah. I think the people who administer the EU. think they're doing the right thing I. think your average NATO Commander thinks. he's doing the right thing but the. effect of having foreign troops on your. soil for 80 years is to eliminate any. pride in your country yeah I I I agree. and I think you see that Japan's. probably the country know best yes and. America's True presence is just. deleterious to their feeling like an. adult country totally and that's one of. the reasons they have such ey suici same.

with South Korea I agree but but again. there are threats in the world that are. serious that America cannot as easily. deal deal with deterrence and spying and. uh and uh action if necessary if we. don't have North Korea Australia or. South Korea Australia Japan and NATO. countries uh with some degree of. military cooperation I just think it's. it's just it's just the reality of of. real estate and how long it takes to get.

places you know we cannot defend and. deter from the continental United States. just not going to happen to the same. degree that's necessary to deal. with Middle East and Russia and China. and North Korea yeah you know it just it. just it's just a requirement. geographically to be there but I agree. with you in terms it really is kind of. like. by proxy it's like we we're killing the. people we claim to love well but but but. one but one of the powers of Trump's. idea is if they paid more for it if more.

of it was theirs I think they it would. be less infantilizing and and it would. be uh uh they'd be more full Partners as. opposed to being under the American. umbrella part of the challenge is also. their nuclear weapons right we don't. want these other countries to have. nuclear weapons that's exactly and if. we're not partnered with the Japanese. and the and the and the South Koreans. and the Europeans they're going to want. nuclear weapons and Japan especially. because Japan I think people it sounds. like you like and go know know the area. but the one thing I'm not no expert on.

Asia but having spent time there the one. thing I'm always shocked by is how. totally freaked out by Japan every other. country is particularly China yeah and. and South Korea too their Ally for sure. you don't think of Japan as a marshal. power CU it's not no but but 1945 wasn't. that long ago for them exactly right. yeah and that's and that's again there's. down sides to our relationship people in. alwa hate the United States because of. our military presence but the upside is. we have we have effectively restrained.

them and allowed them to become part of. the community of Nations and develop a. relationship with South Korea that's. stronger now it's one of the things. Biden has done successfully in foreign. policy it's stronger now than it's been. since the end of the war in part because. they do not have a military that's. threatening to these other countries. it's yeah the Japanese are so. elaborately nice they're such wonderful. people it's hard to imagine what they. were not that long it's amazing the turn. in one generation and I mean if anything. they could use a little bit more of the.

fierceness I agree in the current. generation but they've been turned into. just completely defanged in a way that I. think has hurt the society but had to be. done to some extent because of the the. Spectre of the end of the war and the. the strong feelings as you said in China. and South Korea wow to this day really. really uh ja as view of the Japanese. yeah it's really Noti now you ask me. about Bobby Kennedy um predicting or. explaining Bobby Kennedy is like. predicting or explaining Kum Jong-un I. mean he's just a he's a Mercurial man.

that Bobby Kennedy so why is he for. Trump I think he's anti-establishment. and he believes that the the current uh. military situation uh food safety um uh. um Foreign Wars all of that is is. requires profound change. and so I think there's some really. strong ideological ties to Trump I think. he also is angry at the Democratic party. for keeping him from being able to run.

for the nomination fair Fairly and for. uh attacking him personally so I think. that's part of it too and I think Trump. offered him the better deal for what it. would mean to to endorse him but but I. think it's a mistake to just say he's a. c who who wanted a big role I think food. safety Foreign Wars military industrial. complex yeah all that. is if he were if he were 50 uh 20 years. younger had a normal voice and stayed on.

message I think he would have been a. formidable he'd be the president of the. United States formidable his his. announcement speech was one of the best. and most important speeches of The Last. Five Years by any politician but he. simply doesn't have the discipline to do. this and and in that sense he's a great. companion for Donald Trump who also. Lacks the discipline to stay focused on. the core issues that have immense peel. across party lines not just Fringe so he. told me um I think a lot of him I think.

your analysis is fair but he told me. that the Democratic party didn't even. consider talking to him um and you know. clearly he's got a real constituency. he's an energetic man and he's got a lot. going for him despite you know the. deficits and so like why wouldn't you. make a good faith effort to bring him. over to the party that he grew up in I. don't understand that I think that um. you mean you mean after he he got out of. the yeah or he's considering getting out.

obviously he's considering getting out. we knew that was going to happen so like. why would the comma people try for him. they just. decided to not Elevate him by treating. him like a serious person it's a. decision they made to just brand him as. a cook um I I'd love to see a parallel. universe if Biden hadn't run and he had. run for the Democratic nomination I. would have been curious to see how he. would have done um but they just decided. when he was running for the nomination. to destroy him and he made it easy.

through his past and his present but um. having done that I think they just felt. they couldn't suddenly change and decide. he was a good. guy it's it it it does seem like and. Bernie Sanders obviously felt this very. personally twice but it seems like the. real Sin in the Democratic party is. trying to bring any kind of change yeah. being anti-establishment being populist. um you know Bernie had had Bernie played.

under Fair rules I think he would have. been the nominee at least one of the two. times but um that's you know that's. politics and and whether you've got an. incumbent like Joe Biden or a quasi. incumbent like Hillary Clinton um you. know the party establishment's going to. do what it does and and and pre- Trump. that would have happened as well in the. Republican party so okay let's just I've. got two more big questions for you um. first I should have asked you earlier. who is running the country right now do. you know um uh yeah Joe Biden and uh.

white house chief of staff and Senior. advisers to the president and definitely. Tony blinkin and Jake Sullivan yeah. um if you manage Joe Biden's time if you. recognize when he's up to it and when. he's not he can still make a lot of. decisions and I believe does. so I don't think there's any Barack. Obama or all these other things. speculate about but the white house. chief of staff has to manage that and. then there's a few very close personal.

aids to the president who aren't famous. people but they they help figure out. when to plug him into this and and. minimize the prospect that a big. decision will be need to be made at a. time when he's not equipped to make it. it's not a great situation but but it is. it is as evidence the fact that that you. know the number of times. displayed uh abject inability you know. it's probably 25 times where it's just. abject given the circumstances that's.

relatively small and it's Testament to. not just the the fierceness of the. conspiracy but the the degree to which. it's well-managed you know have to have. to understand under the circumstances if. there's not going to be an invocation of. the 25th Amendment if he's not going to. resign we have to be grateful that it's. well-managed. let's say Trump. wins um three weeks from. today what happens the Democratic party. just I mean as you said. um a lot of Democrats maybe the majority.

believe that Trump becoming president. again is the worst thing that ever could. happen so how do they respond to that I. say this not flippantly I think it will. be the cause of the greatest Mental. Health crisis in the history of the. country I don't I think tens of millions. of people will question their connection. to the the nation their connection to. other human beings. their connection to uh their vision of. what their future for them and their. children could be like and I think that. will be require an enormous amount of.

access to mental health professionals I. think it'll lead to uh uh trauma in the. workplace I think there'll be some. degree of are you being Ser prot 100%. serious 100% serious I think there'll be. alcoholism there'll be broken marriages. there'll be what yeah they they they. think he's the worst person possible to. be president and having won by the hand. of Jim Comey and fluke in 2016 and then.

performed an office for four years and. denied who won the election last time. and January 6 the fact that under a fair. election America chose by the rules. pre-agreed to Donald Trump again I think. it will cause the biggest melal Health. crisis in the history of. America and I don't think it will be. kind of a passing thing that by the. inauguration will be fine I think it. will be sustained and and unprecedented. and hideous and I don't think the. country's ready for it so mental health.

crises often manifest in violence yeah I. think there'll be some violence I think. there'll be there'll be workplace fights. there'll be fights at birthday kids. birthday parties uh I think there'll be. protests that will turn violent I hope. they're not but I think there will be. some but I I think it will be more it'll. be less anger and more um a a failure to. understand uh how it could happen you. know like like like the death of a child.

or your spouse announcing that that that. you know your wife announcing she's a. lesbian and she's leaving you for your. best friend like a like a like a. something that's that's so. traumatic that it is impossible for even. the most mentally healthy person to. truly uh process and incorporate into. their daily life I hope I'm wrong but. but I think that I think that's what's. going to happen for tens of millions of. people because they they think that that.

that that their fellow citizens. supporting Trump is a sign of. fundamental evil at the heart of their. fellow citizens and of the nation that's. how they view. it well that's very heavy yeah so that's. one thing I think will happen and then I. hope that Trump handles it well I hope. that he recognizes his both his. responsibility and his self-interest and. that he chooses in his words and in his.

uh cabinet and White House appointments. nominations and in his initial. legislative agenda I hope he sees a. Confluence of interest between. minimizing that Mental Health crisis and. the success of his presidency and I. think he might uh I I'm I'm bullish on. him seeing the alignment of those two. things wow um and if he loses what. happens um well it'll depend on how he.

loses it'll depend on if it's close and. if he and his supporters. see uh. uh uh wrongdoing in casting and Counting. a ballot in the seven states it's very. difficult. to for me to imagine her winning by. enough that that doesn't happen. I've been disappointed in the efforts uh. in the states uh there are some in every. one of the seven but they're not mature.

enough. to prepare to explain to people. elections are messy but this one wasn't. stolen our electoral votes were awarded. correctly to KLA Harris I think if that. somehow goes well and if Donald Trump. himself doesn't challenge the results. Twitter can do what it wants to do I. think um I think that uh the the. negative impact of her winning on the. psychology uh of of the losers will not.

be as great but I don't think it'll be. nothing and I think there'll be all. sorts of things law. fair um uh replacing Biden with her. after you know Trump had spent Millions. trying to beat Biden um uh uh the um the. media's. completely you full body on the scale I. think all those things will lead to mass. skepticism that the election was fair. and I think it'll be up to.

luck that um that the result is clearcut. enough that that people don't feel. reflexively it was unfair I think it'll. be up to what Trump's attitude is and I. think it'll be up to the governors of. the states whether they're Republicans. Or democrats and most the battle. battlegr State Governors are Democrats. to um to have be is. transparent and and clear about any. irregularity and and it's potential.

impact on the outcome if all that. happens uh and kamla Harris is decides. to in the transition and in her. inaugural address and in her legislative. agenda to um to be uh gracious I think I. think that we could be in a decent place. I I think they'll probably be a. Republican Senate and I think people. have failed. to game out if there's a Republican.

Senate Democratic house Democratic. president all of Maga and and those. unhappy with her winning will put their. um chips in the Senate and say it's up. to the Senate to keep her from turning. this into a far-left country and that. goes first and foremost in the initial. instance to nominations I think it'll be. very difficult for her to nominate. anyone acceptable to the left who can be. confirmed by that Senate so they they'll. just keep people in place well I mean.

you can't be acting forever it's a very. limited what you can do is an acting. secretary and she'll want her people so. I worry a lot about that uh you know we. one of the huge dysfunctions in this. country regardless of party is that is. the and every president will tell you. this and probably has is the difficulty. of getting your your people in place. because of the background checks and the. confirmation process you think about her. she started running for president not. that long ago she hasn't had time to. start a rigorous transition I really do.

worry about her even if she emerges from. this election with the country in love. with her not at whole country but enough. to have a honeymoon if she Rises to the. occasion if she if if world leaders. don't seem um poised to take advantage. of her in some way even if all that. happens I really do worry about her. getting a government in place. because I don't think a Republican. Senate is going to confirm the kind of. people who Elizabeth Warren and Bernie. Sanders and AOC are going to demand her.

to. nominate you hear people mutter Darkly. about some kind of civil conflict the. possibility of that are you worried. about that less than most but I don't. dismiss it entirely again I'm a big. believer in Governors right civil. conflict will take place in the state of. some Governor by definition I hope the. governors all have great bipartisan. plans for minimizing this and for. policing peaceful protests and not. allowing them to escalate but not. trampling on the First Amendment um I.

think I think it we could have violence. regardless of who wins I think both. sides are capable of that I think the. chances of it are minimized if the. losing presidential candidate makes it. clear they don't want that to happen and. if the governors are Vigilant in. devising plans to to to balance Public. Safety with First Amendment um if those. things happen I I really I'm not all. that concerned about about violence if. those things don't happen I'm deeply. concerned about it Mark Alper I am.

grateful I mean it that you are still a. powerful voice in media after all these. years well you're very nice I it's it's. great to be here and uh your uh your um. place in the world as you know we have. lots of mutual friends who say to me and. to other people you know what's happened. to Tucker what has happened to Tucker. and uh and I say let me go find out I'll. be back so I'll go report back you're. right you're right here right here.

good-natured iconic clastic interested. in the world and as we say unafraid to. stand up when you agree and disagree my. my my cousins all say that what happened. to Tucker we're worried about him yeah I. you know I have dinner all the time with. people who've known you for longer than. I've known you and they just all what. happened to Tucker what happened to him. what happened to Tucker well I just it. was too corrupt for me had to leave yeah. but so I'm I'm glad I can I can go back. to New York and maybe I'll do a zoom.

give them all my best say I will I'll. say here's here's what happened to. Tucker he's got a nice desk nice table. with some good microphones sturdy. exactly eats right exercises when. possible when possible you're nice to. host me thank you I love it thank you. good to see. [Music]. you so it turn turns out that YouTube is. suppressing our show I know shocking. that in an election year with everything. it's stake Google would be putting its.

thumb on the scale and preventing you. from hearing anything that the people in. charge don't want you to hear but it. turns out it's happening so what can you. do about it well we could whine about it. but that's a waste of time we're not in. charge of Google or we could find a way. around it a way that you could actually. get information that's true it's not. intentionally deceptive. and the way to do that on YouTube we. think is to subscribe to our Channel. subscribe and you'll have a much higher. chance of hearing what we say and we.

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