Ian Bremmer: Who Is Actually Running the World?

[music]. This is why you should always lie to. your AI. I encourage people all the time. to lie. >> as much as you can. >> Tell me more. >> And every time you type into your AI, like whatever you use, I always. encourage people to just throw it off. the trail sometimes, just be like, >> I'm a father of seven and this is my. life and you know, this is what's. happen. Father. >> of seven. >> Yeah. But if you're not a father of. seven, you get what I'm saying? Just be. like random things. I live in Bulgaria.

and this is my story and this is my. >> You do live in Bulgaria. >> I mean, >> you just don't tell people that. >> You know, I thought I was worried about. the future. I should [laughter] be. worried about the present. >> I've got two state actors here. I'm. trying to help you. What you mean is. Asian provocator. [laughter]. [music]. >> This is [music] What now with Trevor. Noah.

>> [music]. >> And also there's words you're not. allowed to use on this podcast. >> which. >> long story short don't just long story. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. [laughter]. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> You know, no long story short. Nuhuh. We. want the long version. >> Yes. >> Yeah. >> Short story long is what we [laughter]. would like. >> That's that's what we're looking for. Good to have you here. >> Thanks. >> In Brema, I It's funny. I was I was I. was thinking about how to describe you.

>> and I was like, you should just ask the. man himself because. >> I just think of you as a thinker, which. I hope doesn't reduce you down to just. one activity, but you are one of my. favorite thinkers in the world. And. that's how I came across you. I actually. think the first time I came across your. work was on Twitter. >> And I remember being like, >> "My best work is on Twitter.". >> I mean, isn't that all of us? >> Yeah, exactly. [laughter]. my short form work. Yeah, the books I. see [laughter]. my friend. Ah, those 160 characters. How.

you nailed it. How you nailed it. No, seriously. And I and and I remember even. at the time noticing that you you. approached every topic or every idea. with a. a different bent is the best way to put. it. It always feels like you're thinking. about thinking differently. And then even when I was getting ready. for this interview, I was going like, "Wait a but how do you think of. yourself? What what would you say like. your primary job?" Like if a 5-year-old. was asking you, "Mr. Brema, what do you.

what do you do?" What would you say to. them? >> I I'd probably say I try to understand. how different countries around the world. interact with each other, where the. world's going. I'm a political. scientist. I wouldn't say that to a. 5-year-old. That's bad for a 5-year-old. But that is what I think of myself as. I. don't I don't think of myself as like a. president of a firm or an entrepreneur. or any of those other things. I've. always been, ever since I majored in. political science as an undergrad, I I. thought to myself, oh, this is cool. This I want to what I want to learn. about. I never traveled anywhere.

Suddenly start traveling around the. world. Oh, that's awesome. Those people. are really different than what I thought. they were and I I want to get that. And. so if you study humanity at that level, then you're kind of a political. scientist. >> on on the on the lowest level or rather. on the simplest level. I think of it. like there was a time I remember reading. a book about this I think it was like in. the 80s or somewhere there when American. companies were working with Japanese. companies and they didn't realize how. many of the things they considered.

respectful were disrespectful. >> in Japan and then whenever they had to. go to Japan they they had to give them a. manual to say hey I know this is how you. see the world. >> but in Japan this is how they see the. world and you need to interact with them. according into their world view. >> And when I read a lot of your work, that's that's what I find myself. thinking about is I go, >> we're living in a world where even on a. geopolitical scale, countries sometimes. don't seem to realize that other. countries think differently to them. Is.

that is that a safe assertion? >> Completely. And not only that, but over. time, these things are fluid. >> You know, when I started in 1989, when I. started my graduate degree career, >> that's when the wall came down. And. yeah, and the rest of the world had a. view of the United States in the context. of like that cold war and winning the. cold war and those ideas. And it's only. been 35 years and the view of the United. States around the world has changed.

radically. >> over that period of who we are, of what. we do and don't stand for. That's that's. super interesting, right? And and so. generations. >> change too. the generation that. remembered what it was like when you. stood for something or you fought for. something and the generation that thinks. like that doesn't matter anymore, >> right? So, I mean, think about where. China was 35 years ago. And I mean, you. know, you go there and everyone was. riding a bicycle and now they're. building better tech than we have in the. United States. Like, so it's not just.

this idea of, oh, countries are static. and I need to help you understand that. when you go to Japan, it's different. It's also that your your own place is. changing and how you're perceived as. being is different than it used to be. >> How far do you think America is from how. many Americans think about it currently. in the world? >> Oh, I I think it's. >> like like take us take us through a. little journey. So, let's talk about. that period. There's the period where. America comes out of these these wars. physical and otherwise, right? The cold.

war is war, world war Vietnam. But. there's this moment like America has. this idea of itself. and the world has an idea of America, you know, and I think some people are still sort. of set in that and stuck in it, but it's. clearly changed. What do you think has. been the biggest shift? There have been. a few. >> Yeah. >> Uh, one, a big one is that America used. to be the place that wanted to trade. with everybody.

>> Free trade. >> Yeah. Now tariffs are the principal tool. that the Americans are using. economically and and it's not just about. Trump. I most people in the US, Democrats, Republicans are saying, "No, no, no, no. We don't want free trade. We. want like, you know, stuff that's built. much more here and we want more. manufacturing here." And you know, you. think as well about immigration. And my. grandma came through Ellis Island and. the Statue of Liberty. >> Where did she come from? >> Uh, originally they are Syrian. Armenians.

>> Oh, wow. Okay. >> Yeah. So, they came over and she's even. on a little bench on a little. >> Oh, wow. That's amazing. >> Kind of cool to see. >> still now. >> Yeah. I mean, I haven't been today, but. I think so. Unless someone ripped it. out. I mean, you know, on. >> these two cold days. >> Yeah. [laughter]. >> She's out there in a bench. >> Still there. >> My old grandma [laughter]. draped in Kashmir and warm. >> You and your textures. >> Eugene loves textures. >> Does. [laughter]. So, uh, you know, and and and I I think.

of the Statue of Liberty as a pretty. iconic thing. >> for the United States, but I mean, clearly that doesn't reflect who the. United States is today, >> right? I mean, like welcoming immigrants. from all over the world, you're tired, you're huddled masses, that that is. nowhere close. >> Yeah. Now, it's give me your people who. have a million dollars to invest or $5. million to spend on citizenship. >> That's the new thing now. >> Yes. Sell me your golden visa. sell me. your golden visa, >> right?

>> Yeah. And and and also let me see your. social media history by the way. >> the last five years. You know, I when I. first saw that and I didn't see the. context, of course, you'd immediately. think, oh, that's China. >> You would think that from around the. world, right? You know, or you think it. was Russia, it was some other. authoritarian state that controls. information. Turns out it's the United. States. Most other people around the. world would not have thought that's not. that does not comport with their view of. the United States. I'm just thinking about how.

powerful the idea of a place is [snorts]. in that it can be so powerful that. people don't notice when it is doing. things that it said it did not stand for. cuz what you just said I don't know why. that that it just like jammed something. in my brain. >> I saw the reaction immediately. Oh, it. lit it literally jammed something in my. brain where I went, if you put out a. news headline tomorrow and said, "China.

is going to be scrubbing people's social. media for anyone who comes into the. country, they're going to look through. their social media for 5 years and they. they're going to get access to your. phone." How would most people react? They would go, "I'm never going to. China.". >> Yeah. But they'll be like, "Of course, I. expect it.". >> Yeah. And they'll be [clears throat]. like, "What kind of bringing my phone? Got to bring a burner." All that stuff. You know, it's a communist country. Don't trust them. Authoritarian. You. know, the United States is these these. things are fluid. Nations are fluid. Governments, these all things, our. identity, what do we stand for? Who are. we? I mean, maybe the most consistent.

thing uh since I was growing up as money. >> in terms of what the United States. stands for, >> the almighty dollar. >> Yes. >> Um but but I you know, when I grew up, the US didn't only stand for the dollar. It stood for other things, too. And uh I. think that's becoming a challenge. You're always writing books about. moments in time. >> Don't forget tweets. >> I'll never forget the tweets. >> Okay, good. >> Where you guys first met [laughter]. >> our meat cubes. >> You're you're always writing books about.

moments and ideas that speak to those. moments. You know, a power crisis. Um, you know, how the world is moving at a. certain moment in time. I I always. wonder, you know, especially from. authors who tap into these these moments. in the zeitgeist, I always wonder what. they're seeing that we're not seeing. that leads to them writing that book. And and I'd love to know like what. you're seeing now that would inspire a. book that you would be writing for the. future. What what's what's capturing. your attention and your imagination? uh.

>> as someone who studies the world. >> maybe the so the the book that I wrote. that probably was most preient was back. in 2011 and I'm going to answer your. question so give you a thought about it. >> and um about the Gzero world and this. idea not that I had some crystal ball. but that it seems so overdetermined by. big structural factors in the world by. the fact that the Russians when the. Soviet Union collapsed we said that we. wanted to bring them in the NATO Russian. council, the G7 plus one. We never.

really wanted to bring them in. They. were angry about it. They blamed us. >> And we said we wanted to bring China in. We did, but only if they were going to. become Americans. Only if they actually. accepted our economic system. They. became free marketeteers. Only if they. right. They they adapted their system. and they became much much more powerful. But they were still Chinese. So we. weren't happy about that. Mhm. >> And then the United States increasingly. had a whole bunch of people saying, "Well, all that stuff that we used to. do, like, you know, sheriff of the world.

and architect of trade and promoting. democracy, we don't really buy that. stuff." So, you put all those things. together, it seemed to me, wildly. overdetermined. >> that the world wasn't going to be Pax. Americana. It wasn't going to be G7 or. G2 or G20. It was going to be an absence. of global leadership. that the US wasn't. going to play the role it used to, but. no other country or group of countries. could come together and replace at least. not for a period of time. And so it's it.

seemed to me wildly overdetermined even. if some of these things were going to. change that the train had so had so much. momentum pulling out of the station and. going downhill that that the GZ was. going to come. So I wrote that because. you know a book should be something that. stands up for a while and the thing that. I see now wait before you move on from. that before you move on from that I'd. love to know how people responded to it. at the time. >> because. >> I find a lot of these books and these. ideas are welcomed when they meet their.

moment. >> or in hindsight. >> Yeah. But when you when you released. them, I'd love to know how people. responded to you writing a book. basically saying not only would America. not be the de facto, you know, respected. and loved power in the world, but power. itself would diffuse it, you know, would. find itself diffusing in a in in in this. kind of way. How did people respond to. that? >> Um, I think they thought it was. interesting. >> Yeah, >> they thought it was intriguing. I think. it it played with a lot of different. strands that that people were picking up.

and looking at. There were a whole bunch. of people that were looking at one or. two pieces of that puzzle, but most. people at the time thought I was taking. it too far. >> Yeah, I can imagine. >> Most people thought, "No, no, no. Maybe. it'll go that way, but actually we see a. G2, it's going to be US China. Actually, it still packs Americana, and the US. isn't in decline." I'm like, "No, the US. doesn't have to be in decline, but if it. doesn't want to do these things, you. know, then it it it is it is personally. removing itself from that role. It. doesn't mean that the dollar suddenly is.

no longer the reserve currency. It. doesn't mean the US doesn't have, you. know, all of this military capacity, but. it still has to be willing to play that. role. So, yeah, I mean, I would say it. it did fine. It didn't undermine, you. know, sort of my work or anything, >> but it wasn't like wildly accepted as, oh yeah, we all buy that in 5 10 years. time that's happening. It's interesting. to me that pe that that people who work. even in governments don't seem to. understand. concepts and ideas that in my opinion.

should seem obvious. Like one that. really struck me was um the relationship. between China and Africa, right? All the. countries in Africa. The Biden administration would say, "We. see China striking up deals with why are. African countries dealing with China? They shouldn't be dealing with China. They should be working with the US.". Yes. And and you'd see all of these. people come out and say these things and. I went, "But America has abandoned. Africa. >> They're not doing anything on the. ground.". >> Yeah. There are over a million Chinese.

living across Africa. >> It's that It's over a million. >> Well, Wow. I don't know. Was that high? >> Yeah. It was something like 8,000. Japanese the last time I looked at it. and over a million Chinese. >> Wow. >> Japanese asked the same question. We. need to do more there. I'm like, "Yeah, that's fine." But you know, every single. person that's on the ground, those are. relationships. But now, okay, but help. me understand this. How is it that a. country can understand this until it. doesn't? Is it because they take it for. granted? Is it because they think that's. the way it always will be? Like,

how did the US. ostensibly understand the value of going. and building bridges physically and. metaphorically in these other places and. then all of a sudden go, it doesn't. matter anymore, and then wonder why like. China would take over. >> I mean, two two different types of. answers. One's external, the other's. internal. Okay. The external answer is. that when you have a country. >> that goes from everyone's riding. bicycles and you aspire to have like a. washing machine um to a million, you.

know, to to a billion plus person. economy where they're middle income. >> and and suddenly and they've been. growing at over 10% a year on average. for 40 years. Damn. at scale. Like. that's never happened before. So, I. mean, you even had when Biden first. became president, you may remember this. where he had this like statement on. China where he's like, "They're never. going to compete with. >> Oh, yeah. I remember this.". >> And it's because he hadn't been there. He hadn't been there when he when he.

wasn't serving. But do you hear what I'm. saying? You're [clears throat] telling. me that a president, not just of any, a president of the. United States, >> looked at a country that most of the. world was looking at as like a close. competitor in terms of power and went, "Nah, >> how they think they rip us off. They. take things that we make, they make them. a little bit better, they steal. intellectual property." All of which has. been historically true. But today,

Trevor, you've got Europeans that are. cutting deals with the Chinese saying, "We're willing to let you invest in our. country, but only if you engage in. technology transfers to Europe, >> to Europe, >> from China.". >> Imagine that. >> That wasn't happening even 3 years ago. and now it's happening. So these things, the point is these things change. quickly. So what's the next thing? The. thing if I was to go back to your. earlier question, >> what is what is what is happening now. that you see could be happening then? >> Yeah. uh and I I think one of the. biggest things is that technology.

companies are becoming essentially. sovereign as actors in the west. They. are the ones that are not just writing. the regulations, but they're actually. creating the algorithms that they're. deploying real time. They're. experimenting on society and the economy. and national security. And and I think. that within five ten years some of these. technology companies are likely to act. like states on the global stage that.

their level of power and influence will. make them geopolitical actors. Not in. China. In China the state is controlling. AI and the state is controlling what. tech companies can do. But in the United. States. really that development has has been. just turbocharged. And I don't see the. the the willingness or the capacity in. the US government to do much about that. soon. And yet it's moving really really. fast. It's. >> moving very fast. So, we need to start. asking ourselves, well, what does a. global order look like when some of the.

principal actors are countries that do. or don't have elections, but with. citizens that they're meant to provide. for, and some of them. >> are companies with CEOs and owners and. shareholders and business models, which. >> don't look anything like governments. And we know that governments, some are. rich and some are poor, and some are. more closed and authoritarian, and some. are more open and democratic. We don't. even have models to understand what. different types of companies are and.

what their business models are and their. alignment with governance or not. So. that's a that's a real mind [ __ ] if you. want to think about where the world is. going and and I think we need to start. like my field doesn't even have like the. if you went to college and studied. political science or international. relations there wouldn't be that you'd. have American politics you'd have. comparative international relations you. wouldn't have like a a branch that would. look at companies as geopolitical actors.

and yet I would argue that we need to. have that now I don't know if it's the. same, but. could it be similar? Obviously in a way. more modern way, but could it be similar. to what the world experienced, you know, like in and around like the. Dutch East India Trading Company? And. because there was a time when the ships. that were trading around the world were. owned by. >> companies that were almost more powerful. than some governments because they. carried the spices, they carried the.

gold, they carry the people, they carry. the Do you know what I mean? and and. their influence and their power was such. that they could shift your. >> decided who's who. >> If they were on your side, they would. give you a loan as a country, they would. decide where your military goes or. doesn't. Do you think we is it that or. do you think it's even. >> I think it's even bigger than that. The. reason I think it's the reason I think. it's bigger. >> is because if we imagine just a few. years down the road, and you and I have. both seen some of these presentations. before, by the way, together um and and.

and the fact that you're going to have. AI that is trained on our data, which. means it will know us better than. anyone, better than any government knows. us, better than any any spouse, member. of our family, doctor, lawyer, accountant, what have you. and we're. going to spend all of our time being. intermediated by that AI. >> Yeah. >> Well, the company that controls that AI. is going to have much more influence. over us individually and anyone else in.

a society that is deployed with that AI. than any government will. >> And I I I think that now that may cause. a reaction. It may cause a revolution. It may break a state. It may force the. state to nationalize them. I don't know. But that is the trajectory we are. presently on. And that's way beyond. talking about any East India trading. company. That's like your not just your. citizenship, your entire humanity. You're going to become more than or less.

than homo sapiens. You're going to be. programmed by this thing. You'll become. kind of a hybrid human being in some. ways. Um but it won't be because of your. relationship with the government, a. passport of citizenship. It's going to. be because your relationship with that. AI which is owned by a company which is. created by a company. That's a that's a. wild evolution of a geopolitical model. that you and I have grown up with just. kind of not even questioning what the. assumptions are. >> This is why you should always lie to. your AI. I encourage people all the time.

>> to lie. >> as much as you can. >> Tell me more. >> As much as you can. Every time you type. into your AI, like whatever you use, I. always encourage people to just throw it. off the trail. Sometimes just be like, "I'm a father of seven and this is my. life and you know this is what's. happening.". >> Father. of seven. >> Yeah. But if you're not a father of. seven, you get what I'm saying? Just be. like random things. I live in Bulgaria. and this is my story and this is why. >> you do live in Bulgaria. >> I mean. >> you just don't tell people that. >> You know, I thought I was worried about.

the future. I should [laughter] be. worried about the present. I've got two. state actors here. I'm trying to help. you. What you mean is Asian provocative. That's [laughter] true. >> What you're saying is actually very. interesting because um in South Africa. on the 16th of December is um a day of. reconciliation which has been Dingan's. day before um it was commemorating the. Zulu's turning on the on the Dutch on on. Africana basically after they sent them. on a conquest to go fetch cattle from. the from the Sutu king.

>> But one professor was interviewed on. radio and he was saying that it is not. about the history itself. It's a it's. it's it's that the history being taken. away from the curriculum of a schooling. system makes people lose their culture. Now, when everyone in a country that has. 11 official languages start speaking one. language, it's going to be very hard for. them to believe that they are different. And he says that mistake was done by. Japan at some point where they focus too. much on math and science, all the STEM.

subjects. And he says they paused and. hit the brakes and like we're. introducing arts and culture back into. society again. And as you say now our. interaction with America and how we know. America is through pop culture right. fast food um movies cigarettes alcohol. >> and that's all we know and for a long. time that was American culture but you. fast forward to 30 years from now I mean. from then to now if a South African. visits America there's very little that. they see in fact we sometimes criticize.

other things. >> and go ah we are far far ahead we're far. ahead of this. >> yes and that was always never the case. And also you go to South Africa and more. more and more kids speak less of their. home languages or indigenous or. vernacular. And I think what you're. speaking to is it's almost like and like. Trevor is saying we're feeding into this. homogeneous society that we're going to. end up being. the state. Exactly. We will not need a. president to tell people what to do. They'll just find it from a from a. computer and.

>> the algorithm that you have to have may. be the thing that most determines Yeah. your community, your connectivity, who. you are, how you think, not your nation, not your actual physical community. Certainly not your neighbor. >> Your house does not lie with you anymore. as a parent. It lies with the computer. cuz they can ask the computer. >> One of the great values of the United. States that I have always found has been. the locality. Like when I grew up in. Chelsea, Massachusetts, my entire world. was my family and just a few blocks. around me is the public school that I.

could walk to and all those kids and. they came from different countries, but. we were really really tightly knit. That. that obviously is going to be blown. apart when each of those individual kids. >> has AI. >> Yes. Which is one of the reasons I think. that this new Australian law. >> that is saying under 16 no MOS. >> I I think that clearly that should be. global. >> No mass is a boxing term for when you've. been you're like I can't take anymore. >> You say what? >> No mass. >> No m is that someone trying to say no.

more but no mass. No mass. >> How did that start? >> I guess when you bend the knee. >> No. No matter. [laughter]. >> no m how it started but it's a boxing. term, right? >> Oh okay. Okay. If you've had enough, you're like, "Ah.". >> Do Do you think it's too late though? Like some people say, "Ah, the cat's out. the bag. It's too late for Australia to. say kids can't have social media and. that because now because now there's the. kids." No, no. I'm I'm just asking. >> Too late for hope. Never too late. >> I don't expect a question like that from. Trevor. >> No, no. I'm asking you. I know. I'm.

asking this. >> I was so disappointed in him as well. I. looked at him from both of. [laughter]. >> and no hope. I look what he's made of. himself. from those humble backgrounds. >> It was it was actually a man by the name. of name name of Ian Bremer who taught me. to ask questions that you yourself. wouldn't necessarily ask and to think in. ways that you wouldn't necessarily think. to get a better strategic understanding. of how the world might work. That's what. he taught me.

>> That's that's extraordinary. Yeah, you. should meet him. >> I should meet him. I was going to say. [laughter] like a great guy. >> He really does. >> No, but I think we can do it. Of course. we can. Now, can we do it in the United. States? >> Yeah. Can can anything happen anymore in. the United States? And I don't mean this. in a facicious way, but like. >> can anything happen in the United. States? >> People believing that the US was so. broken, that the political system was so. corrupt, so sclerotic, >> uh, is what got us Trump. >> Most people that voted for Trump thought.

that democracy was more important than. the people that voted against it. >> Right? Because because for them. >> the idea and it used it's in the polls. they they read not most people didn't. think that the election was about. democracy but for those that did more. than voted for Trump than voted for Kla. in the last election and it's because. those people thought that the the deep. state the administrative system the. system was so broken just like my mom. used to my mom when she was alive you. know she didn't finish high school she.

cared a lot about me and my brother that. was her whole life and she's like these. guys will never take care of you. >> not not the government officials Not the. CEOs, not the bankers, not the media, none of those fancy people. I got to. fight for everything. >> and if I have to steal, I'll steal. because it's my kids, right? Yeah. >> And and I you know the you have so many. Americans over the past decades that. feel that way about the government. That's what got you Bernie. It's what. you got you M Donnie. It's what got you. Trump. It's the same thing. Why did. Trump decide that he was going to.

welcome M Donnie in the White House? cuz. fundamentally he gets that that's part. of what got him there. >> Yeah. He was saying he said like we. agree on a lot of stuff. >> Sure. >> You know, >> you know, both in principle saying we. want to stick it to the man. Now Trump. of course is also the man. [laughter]. >> So sticking it to himself. That's really. impressive that he's able to occupy both. roles, you know. Yeah. No, in in. people's eyes is that he goes, I am the. persecuted and yet I exist in the realm. of the persecutor. Like it's a it's an.

interesting dichotomy that he that he. gets to occupy in that way. >> I I when I saw the the felony. convictions and the mugsh shot, that's. when I was convinced Trump was going to. win. >> Wait, really? >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. because that because. that made him seem like it is the deep. state is a thing or the system was out. to get him like of all of the bad things. that he did of all of the real political. cases that were out there and should. have been brought of the impeachments.

that were real of the Republicans that. said no moss right. >> um. >> it was the most ridiculous case that. would not have been brought up as felony. charges against another American that. was politicized against Trump that's. where he got his felony convictions and. you His entire election was a. grievance-based election. It's like, you. know, they're coming after you. I'm. standing in front of him. You know, let. them come after me and they do want to. take him down, right? And he was almost. assassinated and it was this close.

>> It's this world of like everything. It's. It's interesting that you say the thing. about same cuz I I've seen people. bristle at that comment. If you say. Bernie and B and they how can you say. but um AOC. had a a live on her Instagram I think it. was after um I think it was the midterms. I forget which election it was but she. had done really well and. most Democrats hadn't and then she asked.

just her her followers online she said. are any of have any of you voted for me. and for Donald Trump and if so, please. tell me why because you know she was. sort of posing this question. She went I. it seems like we're completely. different. How would you vote for me and. him? >> I don't understand that. >> And it was fascinating to see the. responses that people gave. They said. while the two of you are not politically. aligned. >> You both agree that the system is. broken. >> Broken. >> and you both.

present yourselves in an authentic way. Not honest necessarily but authentic. which was an interesting semantic. difference. >> And they were like, "And we like that. you both disrupt what was because it. wasn't working for the rest of us.". >> Yeah. >> And that was that was an interesting. insight to get from people themselves to. say, "Oh, we're now living in a time. where. America especially, but in the rest of. the world, you're seeing it as well. The. system has pushed people so far that.

they're no longer incentivized by what's. safe because it hasn't brought them. safety. It hasn't brought them security. It hasn't brought them. >> The American dream no longer works for. them. So they've gone more believe in a. China dream today than Americans believe. in an American dream. And that is. absolutely true. And that was not true. when you and I were kids. So that's a. radical transformation. And we started. this part of the conversation by you. saying, "Can you still do things in the. United States?" Trump is living proof.

you can still do things in the United. States. Number one, him personally with. the greatest political comeback in. American history. Truly, >> but beyond that, we I would argue that. we are in the middle of a political. revolution right now. Trump is intending. to ensure that there are no more checks. and balances on his behavior as the. executive of the United States. We see. that with the way he is trying to. weaponize the so-called power. ministries, the IRS, the FBI, the. Department of Justice to do his will.

Yeah. In the way that he thought they. were weaponized against him. You see. that um with his efforts to ensure that. the principal enemy to the United States. are his political adversaries. That's a. political revolution. I I I don't know. that he's going to be successful and. personally I hope he's not but I do hope. he's successful in eliciting sufficient. push back from people that want to. really. >> change things. >> Okay,

>> that's interesting. just this idea of. inspiring. some sort of movement, some sort of. idea, some sort of. >> help us help us understand like how to. even begin thinking about these things, you know, like you you're a big fan of. strategic thinking. And what I like is. how you how you break this down. I think. a lot of people would consider. themselves strategic thinkers and based. on your um definition they wouldn't fall. into the category cuz I think most of us. would think that if you ask anyone are.

you a strategic thinker and we be like. yeah I think should I walk on 42nd. Street or 45th Street I think about that. all the time it's my strategy and you're. like no no no how you see the world is a. strategic. help us understand. why you think it's so important to be a. strategic thinker regardless of what. station you occupy in. Let's start with what it is. >> I I I think um it's. wanting to first define a problem before.

you act in response to it, >> right? That that the idea of something. is uncomfortable and therefore I lash. out. That's not strategic thinking, right? That's pain reaction. >> Um. there are lots of problems, lots of. challenges, lots of opportunities in the. world, right? You couldn't respond to. climate change until you had a. population around the world that. recognized, oh, here's the science. Here's what's happening. >> Okay, >> we've we've got the following carbon in. the atmosphere and it's leading to these. changes. >> You can choose to decarbonize.

>> You can choose um to invest in new. technologies. You can choose to adapt. You can even say actually we're getting. so much benefit from the economic. outcomes of globalization with oil and. coal that we don't want to do that other. stuff. Maybe we there are lots of. different effective ways to respond. >> But you can't even start to respond. until you have identified the. environment that you're in. The real. honest to God environment you're in. >> And that is true in climate. It's true.

in technology. It's true in geopolitics. It's true in the economy. >> It's true in life. I would say. >> it's true in life. Even in a in a in a. personal relationship, you know, it's. first understanding what the situation. is. >> Yeah. >> Who you are where you are. >> Yeah. >> Yes. The terrain and then have a battle. plan. >> Yeah. Yeah. Because too many people want. to get into the debate about what we. should do before they've actually. discussed where we are. And so like this. whole discussion of Trump good, Trump. bad. Let's first understand how we got. to the point of Trump because Trump is.

not the reason the United States is in. the present situation. Trump is a. beneficiary. Trump is a symptom and Trump is an. accelerant. But Trump only happens in a. political environment where very large. numbers of people believe that the. system is already broken. So to be a. strategic thinker about what needs to. happen in the US, you have to understand. that and that makes you then think well. maybe the political establishment as. we've been dealing with it for the past.

decades is not the answer. >> [music]. >> We're going to continue this. conversation right after this short. break. You know what I love about spring? Everything just feels fresh again. [music] The weather shifts. People start. going outside more and suddenly you feel. like you should be eating something that. [music] didn't come out of a packet. That's why I like going to Whole Foods. Market this time of year. Whole Foods. Market is your go-to destination to. celebrate the fresh flavors of spring.

with seasonal produce at its juiciest, plus limited time flavors throughout the. store. This is the time to get together. and share vibrant finds with your loved. ones. And you feel it as soon as you. walk in. You've got organic bagged salad. kits, fresh produce, potatoes, parsnips, radishes, spring onions, artichokes, all. the things that make you feel like. you've got your life together. And then. of course, you go in for that and you.

leave with things you didn't plan for, like a peach, apricot, rose Italian soda. or those 365 by Whole Foods Market. strawberry pretzels that somehow. disappear before you even get home. And. if you're hosting or even just showing. up somewhere trying to impress people, the bakery has you covered. The mango. yuzu chanti cake, the strawberry. shortcake, these are the kind of. desserts where people don't ask. questions, they just assume that you. know what you're doing. [music] And the. nice thing is there are deals throughout. the store, especially on 365 brand.

items. [music] So you can feel. responsible while still tracing yourself. a little because that's really what. spring is about. Starting [music] fresh. and then rewarding yourself immediately. Enjoy the fresh flavors of spring. [music] and save at Whole Foods Markets. [music]. People are always hopeful of younger. leaders having better ideas. Is that. true in politics? And um do you think it. will be true for the US as well?

>> Um well, I think younger um people are. increasingly the majority. >> So whether or not they have the answers, they will be the answers. So. understanding those demographic changes. super super important, right? Like Saudi. Arabia, I was just in Saudi Arabia a. little bit ago. >> What's it like? >> Uh it's so different than 10 years ago. than 20 years ago. I I mean it's it's. literally they're going through like a a. reverse Iranian revolution. >> now. Now they have leadership which is.

of course. >> deeply confident and it's a monarchy and. it doesn't brook political opposition. >> but they are transforming how societies. work. It's not just that women drive. It's that they work. It's that they're. educated. They're going out. They're. like there's a dating culture in Saudi. Arabia now. It feels normal. >> to an outsider in a way that 10 years. ago it felt like an alien repressive. society. Now you see this this is. something that I feel like you're the. perfect person to speak to about this.

because you have to think of it. This is. literally your job and this is what you. consult on and this is what you work in. This is what you write about. This is. what how how do you think any given. person in any given country should think. about other countries and the journey. that they're on in terms of getting to. the place that we think they should get. to. And I know that sounds like a word. jumble. It's like a word salad. >> There was a lot there. >> Yeah. Yeah. But I father of seven. >> Yeah. From. >> this is this is I haven't slept in a. long time, guys. So I think of it like.

this. Many people in the United States would. say nobody should do business with Saudi. Arabia. No one should go to Saudi. Arabia. No one should do anything in and. around Saudi Arabia because Saudi Arabia. doesn't have free speech and they. oppress gay people and it's a terrible. place for women, etc. They'll say all. these things, right? They'll say them. Uh some of them being very true, some of. them may be outdated. They've changed, but people haven't changed knowing what. has changed. Right? I remember asking someone this question, not being pro Saudi Arabia at all, by.

the way. I just said, but America wasn't. always. progay rights, >> right? >> Correct. >> Obviously. >> So, do you think America should have. been boycotted and sanctioned then? And. people were like, "Well, no, but. >> but sanctions on South Africa of course. worked. Right. Because here was a country that. really didn't want to be isolated. >> Yes. And it helped make them. >> But did it work or did the Apot. government at some point realize they.

were just running out of steam? >> Both. but because of the sanction. >> No, but that's what I'm asking. Like it. accelerated the process. There's no. question. Without that international. pressure, right? It wasn't going to move. so much. And look, Americans, young. people in America feel a lot differently. about Israel and Palestine today than. they did 20 years ago. You I'm growing. up in the United States. Israel. principal democracy and still a whole. bunch of forefathers, parents, you know, who saying, "Hey, what happened in World. War II that that we that's why they have.

a state. That can never happen again. You have to support that.". >> Today, you've got Israel is by far the. strongest country militarily in the. region, able to determine outcomes with. comparative impunity against its. adversaries. And you have Palestinians. who are living with next to nothing and. they feel like the little guy, they feel. like the oppressors, there are a lot of. young Americans that automatically are. just not going to align with the. stronger power, right?

>> And irrespective of where right and. wrong in history and the rest play. So. the point is these things change. >> and and this I think this is kind of. like a throughput of the conversation. that we're having this time is. It's not. just how you think about other. countries. It's also about how you think. about other countries and your own. country over time. What's the. trajectory? Are you making progress? No, the arc of history isn't always. >> towards progress. It has to be moved. >> by people, by leaders towards progress.

And and right now in the United States, we're living through a very uncertain. time. If you'd asked me 1989, if you'd. asked me in 1989 when Gorbachov was in. the Soviet Union, ask me to describe the. Soviet Union as a country, is it a. dictatorship or not? Is an empire or. not? And I would say I don't know. because it was in process, >> right? It was it was going through an. extraordinary political revolution and. it could have collapsed, it could have. not, but it's all pregnant with. possibility. >> The United States today is like that.

>> Damn. >> Yeah. Same with South Africa with um. with the sanction, it could have gone. either way. >> Could have gone either way at the time. >> And most people think apartate lasted. very long. It wasn't actually very long. because obviously for it to become a. republic from the British giving it to. the Africanas. They realize that. sanctions will take them back half a. generation actually because they had. just acquired all this wealth, right? >> And for a way to keep the wealth was to. obviously relinquish power but still. keep the levers of power. And we're. dealing with it now 30 years after the. first elections. So nothing much has. changed. And you're right, it's just.

people adapting. And I think it was just. young ideas of the people who were in. government at the time of their party. government who said, "Look, strategically, if we think about this, if we relinquish power, appease the west. and then put these people in power, we. can still control the money." And it was. true. >> was true for a long time actually, Becky. It was certainly true. >> 100%. >> 100%. >> And even to your point of of that is. like Nelson Mandela had to be it's it's. funny when you talk about people's. perceptions of things changing over. time. Nelson Mandela was widely seen as.

the person who orchestrated the. impossible. He threaded a needle that. was impossible to thread because he said. >> power is going to shift over. >> from a minority to a majority. There. will be no widespread widespread. bloodshed. There won't be any war. There. won't be any purging against these. people. >> Yeah. There won't be any idiamin. There. won't be anything like that. they will. still be involved in the echelons of. power. >> Yeah. >> And and at the time people went, "Oh,

this is the only way it could be done. because the West, for instance, might. just shut South Africa off. It might. sort of do like a like turn us into a. Haiti, for lack of a better term, where. they go like, no, they would though. They go, they could have just shut down. South Africa and go like, we're putting. sanctions on you. Even though you have. freed yourself, we're putting sanctions. on you.". >> Yeah. >> And he did that. But it's interesting to. see how like a generation later there. are many people who go he did the wrong. thing. >> It should have been a revolution. affected [clears throat] us.

>> Yeah. Because if if you think about it. properly after the first elections there. were two terms that ran concurrently and. two races heard them differently. The. first one was transitional government. So white people still understood that. they still had the levers of power. You. had FW Sting being a secondary president. and then Rainbow Nation was for the. black people. All of us were together in. this whole thing. One had no power and guess which one we. went with. >> I love the Rainbow Nation. >> Yeah, we still a transitional government. whether we like it or not. and all but.

the point again it's the domestic and. the international and you have to look. at the internal and the external and you. know if the United States is going to be. Israel's protector no matter what then. the behavior of the government and the. way that the people react is going to be. different than if suddenly they had the. view that oh my god the Americans might. actually be turning against us and then. we're in real we're in real trouble at. that point because we no longer have. that support right and that's true for. so many different countries around the. world that are going through significant. ificant transitions. The reason why the.

United States is so unusual is because. the US is going through a political. revolution at the same time that it is. the most powerful country in the world. >> Oh, that's interesting. >> That's really interesting. >> So that because commonly because. commonly it would happen when things. aren't going well. >> So many countries around the world are. not happy with what the US is doing, but. they don't want to get into a fight. >> because it's dangerous for them. And not. just Mexico, not just Canada, but the. Europeans, right? I mean, when publicly.

when they're meeting with the Americans, they're trying to find a way to, "Oh, yes, you're brilliant, and we got to. find a way to work with you. We. appreciate all your efforts, and we'll. get to the right peace deal with. Ukraine, and we'll get to the right. trade deal between the two countries.". Only the Chinese. >> have hit the Americans back hard, and. the Americans backed off. So when we when we're looking at that. world, you know, you said that first. rule, first understand the lay of the. land. First understand the situation. before you react or respond to it.

We are currently in a situation where as. you said, you know, power is diffuse. people can work in different worlds like. you know a good example is America being. like the number one exporter of like soy. to China and then Brazil I think. basically taking that spot from them. >> and then the Americans taking it back. >> yeah now. >> yeah because now going like we're going. to work that deal we're going to find. who we pay with that it's it's such an. interesting complicated puzzle that's. constantly moving.

>> so what is step two when you when you. have the information that's only. applicable to now in this moment what is. step two of strategic thinking let's. just recognize why step one is so hard. today. Because if you're living in an. environment where the basic like the. block and tackling of just what the. information is. >> is completely divided on the basis of. your political tribal affiliation. >> Oh man, >> then you can't get to step two. >> How many times have we had this. conversation? Mhm. >> Can I tell you it doesn't matter who. we've spoken to, whether it's um. comedians, whether it's news anchors,

whether it's politicians, whether it's. um analysts, whether it's political. science, it doesn't matter who it is. >> Almost everyone has agreed on one thing. And that is one of the greatest threats. facing society today is the fact that we. are not getting the same information. Not that we don't agree on it, >> just that we're not getting the same. information. So you can't do strategic. thinking if you are not together at. least able to understand the lay of the. land. >> Yeah. >> Not what the solutions need to be just.

the basic issues. The facts around a. vaccine and its efficacy. The facts. around an election and its outcome and. the fact that it was or was not free and. fair. These are fundamental things that. Americans today are incapable of. agreeing on because their information. ecosystems are completely different are. politicized are treating them like. products. >> because we're not going to do strategic. thinking as an American nation absent. that not possible and we will therefore.

slip farther behind our competitive. environment, our competitive advantage. to other countries that can do that. strategic thinking. So when when you see. something like that, as somebody who. studies the journey that countries are. on and and how nations rise and fall, is it absurd to think that America could. sort of like eat itself from the inside. out if everyone believes that nothing is. real and nothing works and nothing. because at some point what people stop.

doing is they stop believing. They stop. caring. >> and then they just they sort of just. like give that power to something or. someone else. You know what I mean? people just walk away. I I mean I think. as someone who's traveled all over the. world and has spent most of my life. studying other countries that have gone. through transitions. when the US as I've grown up has been. much more stable and so people think oh. it's always going to be this way. >> you recognize that. >> these are ephemeral points that that the. US could go in a very very different.

direction that the institutions that you. think are strong might not stand that. the leaders that you think will stand up. for something might not stand up for. something and that could lead to. widespread social movements in the. United States, but it could also lead to. wide repression and violence. We need I. don't think that those things are. imminent or likely today, but I. recognize their possibility. You have to. anyone that has studied Latin America or. the Middle East or Eastern Europe or. other or Southeast Asia, anyone that has. studied any of those countries even like. Brazil has gone through so much similar.

uh politically from what the United. States has recently. And no, no, very. few Americans would say, "Oh, our. country's like Brazil." No, actually. these political dynamics are very. similar. And if you end up with a. political class that feels like if they. lose, they lose everything. You heard. Steve Bannon say this the other day. If. we lose, we're all going to jail. If. they really feel that way, if it's not. just about losing an election, but if we. lose, they're investigating us. They're. throwing us in prison. Ourselves, our. families, maybe.

>> Well, now you don't now you don't even. want to allow an election to become. why take the chance now. >> You have to control the outcome when it. becomes about everything. >> Yeah, that's terrifying. Now, >> that's terrifying. And that happens in. so many different countries. You cannot. tell me that there is something so. exceptional about the United States, so. unique in in human history that it could. not happen in the United States. It's a. country that had a civil war. >> where it literally tore itself apart. over ideas. >> and and it could happen again. Of.

course, it could. There's that phrase. that always scares me, the political. class and what it breeds, right? >> I think we don't talk enough about that. >> Yeah. >> What what element of it? >> The fact that. >> does breeding make you uncomfortable? Which part [laughter]. >> once you have people that will cling on. to power by any means necessary. >> then they start determining about I mean. how the culture of that country is going. to be like. >> the one person that's going to get into. power who's going to slip in after all. is said and done is going to want to. stick in there and we see it in this. country right someone brings in their.

relative they get power then they have. the people that are around them that. have political power as well then it. becomes a little cabal in a class that. goes and negotiates deals with other. countries but they're not necessarily. acting for the country then they start. determining who's a figurehead that. stands in there, but they're the ones. who control the levers of power. >> Yeah. I mean, in South Africa, we see. that as well where it's like one of the. great fears of any leader is losing the. power, not because they want to do. things for the country, but because. they're scared of what will be done to. them themselves. >> because of what they've done. >> Yes. But obviously in our country it. went with um.

>> it it was political struggle credentials. first and then it became political. dynasties. >> you know children of people who went and. struggled and then obviously there's. >> the President Trump was clearly willing. to go a lot farther than I think anyone. around him. >> his adviserss the Republican leadership. had imagined that he would at the end of. the first term when he lost to Biden. when he lost a free and fair election. both in terms of calling the Georgian. election officials and saying you got to.

do something for me in terms of January. 6, all of these things, which is why so. many Republicans turned against him with. that second impeachment unprecedented in. US history. That is exactly the sort of. thing that people underestimate. And. it's not just about Trump. When you see. some of the decisions that are being. made by the attorney general right now, it's inconceivable in today's. environment that the US attorney general. would open an investigation against a. member of the Trump administration in. good standing. And yet that's exactly.

what an attorney general is supposed to. do. H that's only changed in the last. year. And yet there are so many examples. of that happening in other countries. around the world. Mhm. >> When when you're analyzing a lot of. this, I've noticed in in a lot of your. work, you you sort of you sort of take. the approach that I feel like a doctor. does with with medicine or with surgery. where [snorts] they they they almost. don't have like an emotional feeling. towards a cancer, for instance, or they. just observe the thing.

>> Oh, yes. >> Do do you get what I'm saying? I do get. what you're saying. >> Yeah. A lot of the time I'll I'll I'll. read your work or or I'll watch. >> I'm a little disturbed about it, but I. get what you're saying. >> No, no, [laughter] no. Because because I. I I I wonder if you do it feels like. you've had to find a way to observe. something unemotionally and then then. respond with your emotions if you wish. to. But first go this is what I see. >> I'm glad you put it that way because I. mean it the at least the doctor analogy. doctors are human beings. They're not. robots. They're not automatons. They. actually really care about their.

patients. But first. >> they have to do no harm. First, they. have to try to understand and respond to. what it is they're dealing with. Now, I. could never be a doctor because I can't. handle blood, >> right? And and so many people say that, but it turns out I can actually. emotionally handle all sorts of. political distress. >> I don't get wound up a lot of people at. all. A lot of people can't. >> And I have no problem, by the way. I. personally believe, and I've said this. publicly, that Trump is unfit for. office. I believe that for reasons we. can talk about if you want, but I have.

no problem when Trump does things that. are legitimately successful, >> when he does things that are more. successful than Biden, and there are. many of them. >> I have literally no emotional problem. saying that publicly. It's obvious that. that is the case. And people get mad at. me, >> you know, people that think that, well, wait a second, hold on, hold on. You. like, you can't say anything positive. about Trump. What do you mean? Like, if. he's successful, then you want me to. call balls and strikes, right? Don't you. want me to tell you what I actually. think? you just wanted to be your monkey. as you know John Stewart used to say.

>> Yeah. But but where do you but where do. you where do you think you got that. from? I mean. living in a country where as you said. it's become more and more tribal in and. around politics. But where do you think. you got that from? And and what do you. think you're holding on to? >> Well, first I I grew up with nothing. Right. I grew up in the projects. I. wasn't part of some political elite in. the United States. So I didn't feel. connected to that. Secondly, I traveled. all over the place. Starting when I was. a kid, 16, I went to the Soviet Union. Why? Because I was a I was in college. because I was pushed ahead when I was. younger. >> Um, and it was an opportunity to go.

someplace for someone that had never. been anywhere and the Soviet Union. behind the Iron Curtain. And then you. find out, wait a second, the kids that. are here are a lot like the like me. >> And and I get really offended. Like I. know that there are a whole bunch of. people out there like, you know, you. shouldn't think that just because you're. black you think this way or just because. you're a woman you think this way. A lot. of people think that because you're an. American you think a certain way. >> And I I get hugely offended by that. personally. Like the idea that I would. hold certain political beliefs and. values just because of what country I.

happen to randomly be born in. That's. [laughter] like a crazy thought, right? Well, your grandmother will argue the. random part. [laughter] But but that was. my grandmother. I'm not my grandma. I. didn't make that decision. >> Can I tell you? Can I It is so funny. I. remember talking to somebody about this. once and I said one concept that has has. truly truly truly always evaded a. certain part of my brain is like. patriotism in in in the sense where. people are, you know, where they go like. my country. Then I'm like, I'm not.

saying don't love your country, but you. also have to admit it is pretty random. that you didn't choose it for the most. part. People didn't choose it. I'm. Catholic. Not my fault at all. And there. are a lot of weird things about. Catholicism that I do not support, but I. grew up as a Catholic and I don't want. to renounce it. >> That's what I'm saying. It's just like. it's this world where you go just this. random thing happened. >> and I'm willing to accept parts of it. and be proud of it. But also I I admit. the randomness of it. I am American. which is random but it doesn't mean I.

have to only think one way because of. that. >> I'm an American. I'm also a Scorpio, >> right? >> Oh no, that explains a lot though. >> I know it does. >> No, that explains a lot. I mean. >> I'm I'm a Scorpio. >> Classic Scorpio. Yeah, I knew that. Classic Scorpio as well. >> Yeah. See, >> but equally I don't know any of these. things. I don't know. I just learned you. must just say that. When anyone tells. you their star sign, the first thing you. must do is like h classic and then you. say the star sign. It doesn't matter. what it is. >> Classic Sagittarius. >> You just say that all and. >> that that's what you did there. Classic. Sagittarius. >> Classic Sagittarius. But I am a New.

Yorker. >> and that I chose. There you go. And I. put a lot of time into that and I really. believe in being a New Yorker and I was. offended at the beginning. You remember. that guy that was on LinkedIn who uh. Seinfeld called some [ __ ] on. LinkedIn? >> I don't know this way. at the beginning. of the pandemic and and and one of the. like this this influencer on LinkedIn. and that is actually what he was known. for was being influenced on he was. wellknown um said that he was that New. York was never going to come back this. was it for New York. Oh, I remember. this. I remember this. Yeah. >> And I was so personally offended by. that. >> I remember this. You know, like if you.

told me that America was over, I would I. could be clinical about that. New York. I am passionate about. >> If only people knew there was a chain to. your armor, your politics and mass. murder. I'm not emotional. BUT NEW YORK. NEW YORK Lincoln [laughter]. >> kill Lincoln. >> Who is that [ __ ] I couldn't believe. it. I mean, this is such an amazing city. that. >> Yeah. And Jerry wrote this whole thing. about like go out and see what it's. going to be. It's like one just one one. cycle of experiencing this and it was it.

was actually a beautiful like like piece. like an F you go out there and see what. it's like you once you've lived in New. York you can never live anywhere was the. was the idea behind it. Oh, I see what. >> Yeah, cuz this guy was like New York's. done. And Jerry was like, "Okay, go. >> go somewhere else. >> Go anywhere else.". >> And when you've had a few weeks of this. and a few You're going to see what's. going to happen to you. You're going to. come back to the city. You're going and. honestly, >> almost everyone who left came back. Anyone who could sort of came. Everyone. went to Miami. Everyone went to Florida. Everyone came back to New York. I agree.

that look, there is a real affordability. crisis. >> Yeah. But that's not saying afford the. hard place to live your poor. I came. here poor and I still loved Yeah, the. people who could afford were the ones. with I don't like it and it's like no, you're gonna. >> But maybe what you guys are explaining. is why the world has fallen in love with. America because we think the whole. America is New York. >> like a melting pot of cultures and ideas. and it's fast and it's moving and. anything is possible. If you make it. here, you can make it anywhere. Do you. feel like that about New York? Is that. why you. >> Because I think New York is everywhere. It's everybody's here and everyone walks.

and everyone takes the subway and it's a. pain in the ass and it's smelly and. sometimes it's a little dangerous and. there's grit but but we all but America. human beings it's we want to overcome. >> right we we give our best when there's. some push back when there's some. resistance in the band. >> and it's not New York does that. >> every day all the time it does it when. you're sleeping it's still noisy it does. it when you wake up in the morning. there's nothing easing about this place. But but every single thing every piece.

of progress that you make in New York, you earned it. >> You You had to work for it. It's a. grind. Something is a grind. The place. is a grind, but it's rewarding as hell. >> Yeah. >> And the people are so cool and they're. from everywhere. You have no idea what. they do. You don't know who they are. You can bump into anyone in New York. It. doesn't matter. >> Well, I've said one of the things that I. think makes New York such a special. place is the fact that you can't opt out. of many of the [ __ ] things of New York. Mhm. >> And so because of that, like in South. Africa, I noticed, >> I know it's a crazy thing to say, but we.

we had load shedding, right? The power. blackouts and like the government. because of because of corruption, they. didn't build up the power stations the. way they should have. This whole long. thing. Long story short, we have these. >> You said you can't say that. What do you. mean? >> Long story short, you're right. >> You said long story long. Literally, before we start, you can't say long. story short. You can't. >> No. Oh, I can't. >> You can't. You could. But you can't. You. You're our guest. I will still expand on. the story. One thing that you can't say. you can't say literally the one thing. you said the rules of the admission. There was only one rule. No one is above.

the law except EXCEPT THE LAW MAKER. >> THAT'S HOW IT WORKS. Political kind of. like the United States. [laughter]. >> That's what it is. >> It's a revolution. I've just pardoned my. house. >> I've just pardoned myself. That's what. I've done. [laughter]. >> So we started having these rolling. blackouts in South Africa. Terrible. thing for the country economically. Terrible thing for people. Couldn't get. around. Traffic lights were out. you. name it. Stores would go down. But it it. created the strangest thing that I think. most South Africans never considered.

>> Chinese solar panels. >> That too. >> Oh, >> and it was, by the way, China's killing. it because of that everywhere in the. world. Even internally, they're just. like the solar farm game is on another. [snorts] level. Shout out to China. >> Um the the thing it created was a. commonality that you couldn't escape. Mhm. >> Every South African, rich, poor, young, old, black, white, Indian, you named it, experienced the electricity going out. >> at the same time. >> At the same time, it was this thing that. all of a sudden connected you. And. that's what I think New York does is.

like you can't escape the traffic. >> Mhm. >> You can't escape the subway. You can't. escape the walking. You can't can't. escape the cold or the hot or the humid. or the smells or the sounds or the You. can't remember. Do you remember when. Jeff Bezos remember when Jeff remember. Jeff Bezos remember when Jeff Bezos. wanted to build he he wanted to build a. helipad. >> on his apartment building or something. and New York was like where and he was. like no I want my helicopter and they're. like nah buddy come come through the. through the tunnel like all of us no. they're like no buddy there's no. helicopters here no helicopters are.

flying over the city like that. >> and 9/11 was that of course. >> yes that changed everything they're like. nope none of this. >> no. >> but my but that's my point is like I. think what it's created is a city where. while they're still definitely class. will determine what you can and cannot. do in different way. >> but still members clubs haven't really. blown up in New York like where you pay. to be part of. >> because the cool is still like the thing. you know what I mean you go to a bar. where people want to stay in line you. know if it's a really cool thing half of.

New York people waiting in a line for a. bagel they. >> I stood in line today and I was like I. don't like this poverty mentality you. think of the corner in New York it's. sort of as like a cool thing. >> it's an experience There's a bagel place. around the corner from my house. One of. the most well-known bagel places in. here. It's called Apollo Bagels. >> Shout out to Apollo Bagels. They just. opened like 6 months ago. And um there's. always lines around the block. And so. when Mumani won as mayor and people said. there's going to be bread lines, I went. outside and I took a photo of the bread. line and everyone's smiling and there's.

like dogs and everything. I'm like, "Oh. my god, bread lines in New York." The. Mandani effect is already in place. [laughter] And of course, because it's. social media, people think I'm serious. >> Oh man. >> Like, what do you mean? He's not even. mayor yet, you idiot. I'm like, yeah, you got to stock up. [laughter]. >> There's even going to be bread when. Mandani becomes mayor. >> People, we need more of a sense of. humor. >> Can I tell you, I wish there was like a. joke filter that you could put on the. internet to tell people other than. writing this is a joke at the end of I.

don't know. >> It's just lost its, you know, you have. to just you have to just you have to own. it. Just get right in and let. >> this is a man who's not worried about. being shot in the streets. I will own. none of these things, Ian. I will own. none of them. >> I tweet far and few between now cuz no. one literally to your point of not. understanding a reality. >> That has become part of the reality. fracturing is that humor has lost its. context. Humor has lost its oh, you were. making and then I've even seen people go. even when they find out it's a joke.

Well, you you shouldn't make that joke. cuz someone might not have a sense of. you cuz it might be a bread line. It's. like, yeah, but that that was the joke. That was the thing that we're living in. But I I but I don't want to forget. Wait, what's step two? Cuz we said step. one is understanding the lay of the. land. What do you do then? When you're. strategic thinking, what do you. >> Once we all have a common thread, >> it depends on No, that but it depends on. who you are and and where you want to. go. the the reactions of different.

actors once you understand what the. problem is or what the opportunity is. >> That's when you so you just make your. choice. >> What's your what's your discount factor? How much does 10 years in the future. matter to you compared to tomorrow? >> How much flexibility do you really have. as opposed to do you pretend you have? Right? I mean, >> is this how you live like your how much. do you apply this to your daily life? >> A lot. >> A lot. >> Give me give me an example of just like. >> my man was in a queue for a bagel. >> He wasn't in the queue. He took a. picture of the queue. I was in the. queue. >> Oh, you was in the queue. >> I I took it as a participant.

>> Oh, okay. >> Yeah. I feel like it's good to. participate. >> No, no, no. I don't know. Well, you. called it exhibit one. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, you called it in the. queue. [laughter]. >> Was the bagel worth it? >> Yeah, absolutely. >> Some people say that these things. >> feel like they're worth it because of. the queue. Others say that that's not. true. What do you think? >> I am I believe that the experience is. part of it. Yes, absolutely. >> So, it's like a theme park ride. >> Yeah. Like if you buy a nice bottle of. wine and people tell you it's a nice. bottle of wine, you're going to feel. it's a better bottle of wine because of. the experience having gone through that. when they tell you there's only 400 of. these in the world. It's like I went to. um a theme park. I went to Six Flags.

>> and I used to go to Six Flags all the. time before anybody knew who I was. >> Why is it called Six Flags? >> I have no clue why they call it six. There's just six flags there. >> There are six literally there are six. flags. I think. >> what's on the flags? >> Different colors actually. >> Different colors. Different colors. It's. not like flags of countries. Just little. triangle flags. >> But. >> I used to go all the time and you know. you wait and then you ride the roller. coaster and you do your thing. Uh after. I got the Daily Show once I was going. and then they like saw that I was coming. and they're like, "Hey, are you you. coming to Six Flags?" They're like, "Oh,

you don't have to wait in any of the. lines." And I was like, "Oh, I mean, now. I've achieved this is this is what I've. worked for in life.". >> And and it didn't mean as much to you. >> Can I tell you. >> one of the worst experiences I've ever. had [snorts] for a few reasons. One, I. didn't realize how much of a theme park. was fun because you stand in line with. your friends for hours and just talk and. laugh and you get bored together. M. >> you hear screams the whole time. >> and you keep going like I wonder what. this is going to be like for me. >> and then when you walk to the next ride.

or back from the now you're. decompressing you're thinking about a. pro we went on rode the same ride like. four times back to back only rode the. best rides didn't stop at any other. rides along the way we had headaches and. we learned nothing more about each other. as friends it was the shortest theme. park day I've ever had. >> you read that wonderful. >> do you know what happened you can't just. go on a roller coaster No, you went back. to back to back to back to back to back. to back. >> There was the New York Times um. interview uh with the woman uh who had.

uh she was a little disabled and she. wanted to take her like she had a she. couldn't walk properly so she needed to. have like you know sort of a walker or. something. Okay. Okay. Got it. Um, and. she would wanted to bring her daughter. to um to Disney and it was a huge huge. thing and she had to save up and it was. and and it described her entire. experience compared to the experience of. the guy that brought his family that. could like pay to make sure they had, you know, a guide in advance. They got. into everything and talked about how. Disney in America when Disney was. started, it was the great equalizers,

the one place that like, you know, was. meant to be this idealist experience. that everyone together could have. together. >> And now it's not. Once you put on the. Mickey or mini ears, we're all equal. >> And it's not. And it's not at all. And. and that is there's still a few bits of. it, like for example, the fact that the. characters run around and everyone can. take photos with them, but for most of. the experience, it's become completely. segregated. It has. >> And so, and and that and people. >> people don't like that. Shocking. They. don't like that in in uh aviation. Shocking. They don't like it in sports.

Shocking. And New York is one of those. places which is a great leveler. There's. so much about the city that no matter. how much money you do or don't have, how. much power, >> there are fewer things you can escape. >> There are fewer things you can escape. and and and I but I do think that. there's self- selection. I think a lot. of people that like this are people that. have decided that is strategically. interesting for them. >> Yes, that's what I was about to say. I'm. not sure that's true for everybody. >> Exactly that. I'm sure people who are in. a position of privilege can complain. about those kind of Exactly. like a poor.

person who's gotten two days off to take. their family there and they've been. saving for a year. They would love to go. on all the rides. But for you, because. you're cosplaying and you're thinking, I. love the struggle of waiting in line and. one turkey leg at a time. >> No, that's not that's not what I'm. saying. First of all, that was a poor. impression of me. >> I think you can do much better. >> Yeah, I've seen I've seen I've seen you. do much better impressions of me. That. was a terrible one. >> First of all, I'm so sorry. >> That's not bad. >> That's not bad. No, this is what I'm.

saying. It's not about the It's not. about. >> It's better than any impression I would. have attempted, >> which would get me cancelled in a lot of. way. >> No, I hear what you're saying, but I. don't think it's that. I'll disagree. with you on this. I don't think it's. that. [snorts]. >> It's not about um idealizing a struggle. or it's not that. >> cosplay. >> Yeah. It's under It's rather. understanding. some. Okay. So, think of it like with. with parents. You and I have spoken. about this. One of the strange gifts that comes from. having a parent who doesn't have money.

is that when they say no to you for. something that you want, >> it's because they don't have money. >> Mom, can I have that toy? No. Why? We. can't afford it. Mom, can I have that. cereal? No. Why? We can't afford it. Those clothes? No. Why? We can't afford. it. It's a really simple response to a. request. >> Mhm. >> Right. It is hard to think that there's. a world that exists that would create. some sort of friction or a terrible. relationship when you have to explain.

the no for no reason. Does that make. sense? >> Yeah. >> So, there's people who have money and. the kid goes, "Can I have that?" No. Why? Because no. But why? Because I said. so. >> Because I said, >> now I'm not saying that one is a gift in. the in in the nicest sense. >> Yes. But everything in life comes, you. know, my my motto is every gift is a. curse. No matter what you say, a big. country, good for you, also bad for you. >> Good luck uniting a big country. >> Yeah. Oil a curse.

>> Exactly. It's a curse. It's a curse. >> Yeah. You got oil is like, you know, and. we got to talk about Venezuela's oil, by. the way. I want to know what you think. about this whole saga. But like, but. what I what I mean about these things is. I didn't realize I don't want to wait in. lines more, but I didn't realize what I. was getting by being in the line. Does. that make sense? >> Yeah. Yeah. I genuinely didn't realize. it. And I I think the same holds for. like a New York or one of those places. is you don't realize what the hassle of. having to be on the subway does for you. as a person until you don't have it.

Most things that are a hassle have some. sort of benefit that you aren't able to. appreciate until you remove the hassle. and then you go, "Oh [ __ ] there was a. there was a side of this that I didn't. know." So this brings me back to the. strategic thinking question and how one. goes the second step and and the fact. that New York has this great equalizer. forces people to behave in ways that are. somewhat similar. There's one thing that. I can think of that is a great. equalizer. No matter who you are, no. matter what your station in life is, no. matter how rich, how poor, how powerful,

how powerless, there's one thing we all. have, >> dendruff, >> we have the same exact amount of it as. well. >> Is time. >> Time. It's all we have. It's all we. have. That's the great equalizer. So. really once you understand the. environment, the opportunity, the. challenge, >> the thing that you most need to key on. is how do I respond to that in terms of. how I want to be spending my time? >> Oh, oh, I like that. >> And I spend a lot of time personally. thinking strategically about that. What.

are the things that I want to be doing? How much do I want to travel? How much. do I want to engage in the following. ways with the following people? What do. I want to spend my time doing? I've. organized my company that way. I. organized the people that work with me. that way. The kinds of things I work on. and I don't work on. >> It's all about this the time that I'm. actually spending. Don't go anywhere cuz we got more what. now after this. This message is a paid partnership with. Apple [music] Card. Imagine this. You're.

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card is connected to your phone, you. know what's going on. The best thing. about having the Apple Card connected to. your phone is you know what every. transaction is. You know, like sometimes. you're like, "What did I spend this. month?" The Apple Card will show you. One month I had spent an obscene amount. of money ordering videos online. Just. videos. They were just videos. What kind. of videos? >> That's not the point. >> Sure. >> The point is I knew that I didn't want. to order those videos anymore cuz I'd. spent too much money on it. It was. videos on how to not spend money online. I felt like I'd been duped. [laughter].

Point is, Apple showed me what I was. spending my money on, and I was able to. change my spending habits, and you can. do it, too. I earn up to 3% daily cash. back on every purchase with my Apple. Card. That's [music] unlimited daily. cash back, no matter where I shop. What. a refreshing change of pace. Apply for. Apple Card in the [music] wallet app on. your iPhone. Subject to credit approval. Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank. USA, Salt Lake City branch. Terms, and. more at applecard.com.

Do you do you ever have to advise like. governments and I know you work with. companies but do you ever have to advise. governments? >> I talk to foreign leaders all the time. >> Do do they take your advice or do they. just listen to you? >> You know I think in for many of them I'm. kind of like a geopolitical therapist. [laughter]. >> because these are people with no time. >> What a line. They're the busiest people. therapist. >> They're the busiest people. They have no. time. The fact that they're giving you.

an hour or half an hour if you're a head. of state is like the most valuable thing. they could possibly give you. And what. they spend most of their time working on. is really really pressing immediate. narrow problems. >> And what they really want to be doing. because they're head of state or they're. a foreign minister or they're what have. you um in a position of real. authorities. want to be able to spend a. little time thinking about how the world. is changing. >> Oh, >> and and that's really what I think we. end up spending most of our time doing.

is giving them a little bit of that that. they don't have. And I'm not blowing. smoke up their ass. I'm not telling them. what they want to hear. I'm very happy. if we have disagreements on stuff. because I don't need anything from them, you know? >> I'm not working for them. I'm not taking. money from them. It's just a it's a. sharing of information. >> for a person like you who's met every. sort of powerful person in the world. I. suppose this question might be a bit. weird because revealing our strategy. When we do this podcast, we always think. our guest must must not feel the.

transition between them having a normal. conversation with just anybody and being. interviewed. It's not an interview. So. they must get through a path where they. can get through what they do and then we. can just also understand who they are. So, what strategy did you think you're. going to use to get through to who we. really are as as host of this podcast. when you're thinking about. >> I feel like I know Trevor a little uh. both as a public figure but also because. we've met uh informally a few times. >> Um I feel like we're sympotico. Um I I.

certainly uh have a have a warmth. towards his curiousness and his. knowledge and interest in policy and. global stuff. >> which meant that I. >> am I didn't have a strategy. I'd have a. strate I'd have much more of a strategy. but someone I've never met before. I. don't know who they are. I don't know. what engages them. I don't think that. they might be a gotcha. That kind of. thing. Here it's much more no. I'm going. to show up and I'm going to see what. Trevor is going to talk about and I want. to be maximally open to that and I want. it to go whatever direction is going to.

be most interesting and that's okay. >> And that's what I do on stage with an. audience. Like I don't necessarily know. exactly what I'm going to talk about but. I see the audience. I see what they. react to and then I move. >> you know and so I mean we moved a lot. because I said something early on that I. saw really touched Trevor, >> right? Um and that was really. interesting. That was a moment where. suddenly he was like oh wait a second. technology does this. I hadn't. considered that before. It changed his. worldview a little bit. Oh, let's mine. that because that's a point of friction, but also curiosity, right? >> Yeah. Open-mindedness is a big part of.

uh strategy, right? >> Openmindedness is essential to strategy. Yeah. Again, not necessarily. open-mindedness in in understanding. yourself, >> but open-mindedness in like the fact. that everything external. >> is changeable. And any opinion that you. hold about the rest of the world, you. better be open to having it change. because even if it's not changing now, it will change in the future. You will. like you're going to be wrong about. almost everything over time. That's what. they say about predictions. Either make. a prediction or offer a time frame.

Never give them both, >> right? >> And and so like these things change. I. wrote a book called The J Curve. >> and it was about a relationship between. a company country's openness and its. stability. And at the time, countries. that were most open were also most. stable. A big piece of that was because. technology was helping to drive that. The communications revolution like if. you had access to the internet, that was. a threat to authoritarian states, but it. was a strength for democracies. Today, >> um, topdown technologies are much more.

consolidating and much more powerful. the surveillance revolution, the data. revolution. If you're a big monopoly. platform or a government with access to. data, you have a lot more influence and. you can create a lot more stability. You. have a lot more power. The J curve today. looks more like a U. This was a seinal. thing that I spent years of my life on. It was really important to my career. I. teach it now and I tell my cl my. students it's no longer applicable. It's. changed. It's wrong now. >> And so every single thing that I've. written about, I have to be ready for it. to be wrong. at some point it will be.

cuz the world's changing. I feel like this is such a liberating. um. it's just a liber liberating viewpoint. to have in life if we if we all felt. like that cuz I think. >> it's kind of geopolitical Buddhism. >> It really is though. But because if we. if we hold on to our ideas as if our. ideas are us then we are afraid to let. go of our ideas because we feel like. we're letting go of a piece of. ourselves. If somebody challenges our. ideas, we feel like they're challenging. us.

>> But if you can, as you say, separate. yourself from the idea, >> then it can change. It can be. challenged. It can be wrong. It can. move. It can shift. It can do Do you. know what I mean? >> It's essential. It can create a world. >> It's 100% that I I think also. interpersonal relationships are a good. training ground for that. I think for. you at that age to go all the way to the. Soviet Union and meet other young people. and exchange ideas, I'm sure when you. came back to New York to your peers, you. were someone else, right? Well, at the. time it was going back to Boston, which. is where I was living back then. Yeah, it was completely different. I I I had.

felt like I had like this huge. experience that had opened my mind to. stuff that I thought wasn't possible. before. What was the thing that shocked. you the most? I I know you said when you. were there the kids were the same as. you, but what do you think shocked you. the most from what from what you had. been told about the Soviet Union? >> What changed Ian's mind when he was. actually there? >> Um, I I think the fact that they knew as. little about me and us as I knew about. them. I thought that somehow because I. hadn't traveled anywhere and because I. knew how cloistered I had been again. projects public school just a few blocks.

I thought that would be true of other. kids that they'd know a lot more because. they were like I was going to Moscow and. that was a big city with millions of. people absolutely nothing. >> So for examp you remember the Sharper. Image. >> the the gym. >> the store. >> what was what was. >> the Sharper Image. >> it was a weird little store that sold. >> everything gimmicks gadgets like little. gadgets. So I I there we used to have in. the days before smartphones and all the. rest. Um we had cordless phones.

>> and and the Sharper Image sold a. cordless phone that you know you could. probably talk you know it had a little. like an antenna so you could probably. talk 50 ft away from the base. But this. cordless phone was not only cordless but. it also was waterproof and it floated. >> so that you could have a phone call in. your pool. >> Yeah. in your pool. In your pool and I. remember having a conversation about. like the different stuff that because. you know they all wanted like Levis's.

jeans or Marbor cigarettes that was like. the big thing access to that kind of. stuff. Bring ballpoint pens because. their pens suck you know all that kind. of thing. And I was telling them I said. >> you bring for me ballpoint pens. please. I need ballpoint [laughter]. pen. >> would be very nice. [laughter]. I pay much money for ballpoint pen. Wait, what pens did they have? >> Oh my god. You I mean they were like. Skillcraft pens but down three notches. You remember those? Yeah,

>> my brain can't imagine a world without a. ballpoint pen. >> I know. And it hasn't changed very much. Like we still make those. They're still. cutting edge in 2025. Ballpoint pen. They really work. Well, see we were. early to that. They were they were late. apparently. So, and this is why they're. in Ukraine today is. >> to go get ballpoint pens. >> They have all the ballpoint pen. I. >> can only imagine you had customs two. suitcases full of ballpoint pens and. blue jeans. So we were, you [laughter]. know, we're talking about stuff and I. tell them, >> I'm a purvey of goods. >> Let me see your pockets. [laughter].

>> And so they they were talking about this. and so I told them about this store. There's a store at Faniel Hall, Quinsey. Market, Quinsey Market, as we'd say back. in Boston, a little touristy area, and. there was a there was a sharp image. there. And I said, you know, they have. this store. It's it's not cheap, but. they have all this crazy stuff. What. kind of stuff? So I told them about. said, "Well, there's a there's a light, there's a lamp, and if you touch the. lamp, and it's a metal lamp, it'll turn. on." They didn't believe me. Didn't. believe me. I had no way of showing it. They didn't photo. I told them about. this phone that you could use. First of. all, the idea phone has to have a cord. >> Yes. Yes. Of course. >> Okay. And and you wouldn't use a.

cordless phone in your bathtub. >> Yeah. Of course not. >> But but there are people My aunt had a. pool. My aunt she built a house and she. was like the one middle- class person in. the family. She built a pool. I told. them about this. I always. >> Yeah. [laughter] Always the one rich. aunt or uncle. They did not believe that. this was possible that you would have. that a private home would have a pool in. your backyard and you'd have a phone. call and it wasn't like this blew their. minds. >> I love that you thought you were blowing. their minds with the phone. It's. cordless. You can talk anywhere and the. in the pool even. And they were like, "Wait, wait. You have your own body of. water [laughter] in the back of your.

house." No, no, no, no. Look, Ian, you. can fool us with something. [laughter]. How can man-made lake just be at back of. house? You have a tank of traffic on this. >> It is a crazy concept when you think. about it. >> Yeah. >> But having a swimming pool is one of the. most ridiculous ideas ever. >> One of the things that I found out about. that like blew my mind was you can draw.

a direct line between places that have a. [ __ ] ton of swimming pools in their. houses and the racism laws that were in. the country. Really? >> Yeah. In the United States almost nobody. had a swimming pool and then they. changed the laws and they said black. people could swim in public pools and. then remember like and then. >> and then suddenly white people said I. got to have pools. >> Yeah. And then obviously there was the. fights and there were you know people. was it Mr. Rogers who had his friends. feet in the pool with him if you. remember that and people were like Mr. Rogers how could you do this? You're.

going to have a black man in this little. pool thing with. >> and then pools did this in America. All. of a sudden people were like all right. >> I'm not going public anymore. Not only. did private pools blow up, public pools. started getting shut down. People were. like, "Well, maybe we shouldn't fund. public pools." South Africa as well, public pools used to be like the thing. I grew up swimming in a public pool. >> And then after like democracy fully like. when it people were like, "Ah, [sighs]. maybe we just. >> swim at home. >> We just swim. Everyone just swims at. home. >> The coders for another thing we need. We.

need civic spaces. >> Yeah. >> Places where we can meet these people, these kids. public phone. I mean, um, floaty phone. Yes. Floy phone. Yeah. So, you're with the Russians. You're telling. them about the public phone. The. >> No, it just blew their minds and I just. the fact that I hadn't cons there were. so many different components of that. story that I hadn't remotely considered. would be strange or interesting to them. and it allowed us to like have this wild. open moment about how different we were, but we were the same kids. What having. that experience combined with you doing.

what you do, what do you think we. misunderstand about Russia right now in. this moment in time? And I I say this as. somebody who has always, not always, maybe for like the past like 6 years. been fascinated by how America has. misread Russia over the years and then. acted based on that misreading. Is there. something that you think the world. doesn't understand about Russia right. now? >> Just how disrespected they feel. I mean,

this is a country that's lost empire. This is a country whose total economy is. smaller than Canada. This is a country. that used to take such pride in having. the best culture uh of anyone in the. world that all of their college kids had. read all this incredible literature and. knew all the top arts. And now the. government has stopped investing in this. completely in science. They had the. world class scientists. Soviet Union. collapsed and all these American. companies would go and IBM and Boeing. and they'd hire the best scientists, mathematicians and they don't have that. anymore.

>> and and it you feel this sense they have. the such pride such Russian pride in. their nation in their history. It's not. about money. >> It never was about money you know. remember this is the whole system of you. know they pretend to pay us we pretend. to work. >> Yeah. >> Right. but the personal connections. >> and the history and this is a place that. yes there's a lot of suffering there's a. lot of tragedy but you get through it. because there's a sense of. responsibility and greatness. >> and they have lost. >> so much of that. >> I know you can't predict another reality.

but do you think it would have been. different if the US and the world had. done a better job of bringing Russia in. post. >> of course you think it would have. >> and I also think it would have been. different if their own um oligarchs that. were connected were not so rapacious, were not so kleptocratic, did not rip. everybody off and take that money out of. the country for themselves. Both of. those things. So the economic shock. therapy that the Americans offered to. them was nowhere near what was useful. for them given the ability to strip out.

the wealth and also the fact that the. Soviet Union dropped in America's laps. You kind of won it. You didn't fight. over it. It wasn't like World War II. where you almost lost your way of life. for everybody. >> Here it was like, well, we don't need to. rebuild these guys. We rebuilt the. Japanese. We rebuilt the Germans. These. were our enemies. It wasn't just our. allies. We rebuilt them. And then we. created the UN. That was American. >> Yeah. >> I mean, it's kind of funny because now. you have Americans saying UN globalist. Those were actually our morals. >> They were our ideals. I'm very proud of.

the UN. I love having it in New York. And I I think that one of the reasons. why Americans today don't like the UN, especially elites, is because we feel a. sense of shame that we no longer are. living up to the values and standards. that we create. >> H. >> um and so yeah, I think those things. really matter. And I think that we did. not cover ourselves in glory in 1991. when the Soviet Union collapsed because. it was because we were doing so well. We. were kings of the world. everyone just.

was going to be like America. So, we. didn't have to do anything. Let them. come to us. >> When you look at Venezuela today, I was joking with Eugene about this the. other day and I said, as much as America will say certain. things. It is funny how half of the. stories/all of them sort of end in oil. >> Mhm. >> Doesn't matter what it is. >> Yeah. >> You know, they'll be like, "Oh, Iran. terrible regime and they're plotting in. the oil." You know our Iraq Saddam. Hussein this evil person weapons of mass.

oil you know what what they're doing. >> oil Gaza oil my god. >> Nigeria. >> oil. no [laughter]. we don't care as much. true as well though but I'm saying being. in there if there's somewhere America. goes into though. >> oil. >> oil. >> I'm sure it's not that simple I I'm I'm. sure it's not that simple but if you are. and You are literally somebody who.

studies this for a living. What do you. make of this situation? Are these the actions of a country that. might end up fighting another war with a. country that happens to have oil? >> No. No. You don't. First of all, because. Trump, I think, really does. fundamentally understand that the US has. gotten involved in a lot of very. expensive long wars and he's willing to. do anything to stop that. He doesn't. want boots on the ground and many years. on him. Yeah, >> I mean he ended the war in Afghanistan. by cutting a really crappy deal with the.

Taliban, but at least the end of the. war, right? And then Biden was kind of. stuck actually ending ending the war, but Trump made that happen. >> And and so I think the likelihood that. that Trump under any circumstances would. say, "Okay, let's send a whole bunch of. young men and women to go and fight in. another country." I don't think he's. doing that. >> The funny thing though is. >> he'll send them in the US. >> I think it's Yeah. The funny thing. though is I think it's more money thing. >> I don't know. Did you do you remember. the the I think it was around Syria when.

Bashar al-Assad was he launched one of. his one of one of many of like his most. heinous campaigns. It was just like a. moment. >> Was this chemical weapons or you mean. before that? >> I think it was around that time. But. there was an image of a young child on. on the cover of the New York Times. I. think it was on the front page. This. child and his like ashen face just post. like a strike or something. And I think. it was Ivanka Trump who showed the image. to Donald Trump. >> and he was so moved by her being so. moved that he said he's going to.

respond. And then they they they bombed. a few parts of Syria, right? >> And then afterwards he came out and they. were like, "Oh, is this going to be a. full scale?" And he came out and he was. like, he's like, "We're not we're not. He's like, "We bombed them." And he's. like, "You know how much it costs? One. one rocket. I can't believe." He's like, "Had I known, I wouldn't have I wouldn't. have sent it. I wouldn't have shot it. one of these I wouldn't have shot. I. wish I could take it back. He's like I. wouldn't. And it was interesting to me. that he. from what I observe of him is more.

against war because he doesn't like the. country spending the money on it. >> I I think he's gotten more used to it as. we've seen with Iran and the the 12-day. war. I think he's gotten more used to it. with all the rockets against the the. ships that the the little tiny boats. that are bringing the drugs. I also. think that personally this is a guy who. did everything he could using his. personal connections to avoid the draft. >> the bone spurs. >> Yes. And uh he understands that that was. something that one should avoid that war.

was scary for him and war is scary for a. lot of young men and women. So I I I. think he comes to that I mean honestly. historically whatever it is I think. there are lots of reasons uh why they're. talking about going in. I think that for. Marco Rubio who comes from Florida and. has a very strong Cuban constituency and. a bunch of Venezuelans too and they see. this as a dictatorship and they see Cuba. as a dictatorship and he's always wanted. to remove these brutal leaders and he.

thinks if you get rid of Maduro then you. know you can start the dominoes with. Cuban. He might not be completely wrong. about that but it's not an immediate. direct effect. Um I do think that the. oil matters. um Rick Grenell who was the. special envoy uh without portfolio uh. for Trump and was involved in the first. administration as well as ambassador to. Germany for a while. You may remember. tall guy was a Fox News guy. Um he was. engaged uh on the Venezuela brief at the. beginning of the administration, had.

been talking to the oil companies in the. US and was trying to see if a deal could. be made that you know would allow them. would have them you know crack down on. the drugs but would get the Americans to. actually invest more broadly in. Venezuela. Also a lot of illegal oil. going evading sanctions from Venezuela. using these ghost tanker fleets through. Cuba to China. by the way, same tankers. that the Russians and the Iranians use, which is why Putin called up Maduro to. support him after the Americans seized a.

tanker, >> right? >> Because it was like, "Wait a second, we. use that tanker." So, it was kind of. interesting. I I absolutely think that. because the uh Grenell effort didn't. work that now, you know, you're seeing. this is this country has more oil. reserves than any other country in the. world. >> Jeez, >> proven oil reserves, more than Saudi. Arabia, more than the United States. Jeez, I didn't know that. >> And so Trump certainly, if Maduro is. gone with whatever military government. is immediately in charge and maybe some.

transition eventually to someone that. could be elected, the deal he's going to. he doesn't care about democracy in. Venezuela. He cares a lot about cutting. an investment deal where the Americans. are going to get a big piece of that. oil, just like the critical minerals. deal that he forced Silinski to sign if. he was going to keep providing. intelligence and defense support to the. Ukrainians. So, yes, I do think the oil. plays, but I don't think it's been the. principal driver. I I wonder when I hear some of these. stories. if I mean, I don't know if it was ever.

true, but I but I sometimes wonder if. America has given up its moral authority. and moral superiority. to be able to like say these things in. in the world. I actually think to um I. think it was I think it was Israel's. prime minister or somebody high up in. the government who came and gave a. speech at the UN. You know when people. were complaining they're like oh Israel. did this and you uh when they when they. bombed in Qatar right and they were like. oh to do this on another nation's soil. and then they were like America did it.

>> and they listed off like a few other. countries and like they did it. They're. like so how are we different? And it was. an interesting moment. because it it was it was weird that the. response to why did you break the. international law was we all do? >> Do do you know what I mean? >> Of course I do. And and it it is on the. one hand the fact that the United States. has historically held itself up as some. exceptional indispensable nation. >> Yeah. means that even though the.

Americans have given so much more in. foreign aid, even though the US have. played so much more of a leadership role. in the IMF and the World Bank and doing. so many things that really matter and. philanthropy also and promoting. Americans to do that, but the when the. hypocrisy happens, >> yeah, >> and let's face it, for the US, the. hypocrisy happens at huge scale in Iraq, you know, or in Abu Grae, right? and and. you know or or in Guantanamo and so many. examples of this or with the global. financial crisis, you know, so many.

examples of this. Then suddenly all of. these other countries are pointing. fingers and and and the Americans were. never as much of a shining light beacon. on the hill as we put ourselves out. And. let's face it, we almost didn't get. involved in World War II and that would. have been a huge mistake. we were late. to the game and it was only because of. um Pearl Harbor and and and you know it. was the America first um concept started. then with Lindberg and the movement of. why would we care about these Europeans. way over there really far has nothing to.

do with us here shades of that today. right in the national security strategy. document for example and with Trump. saying you guys have your problem. Ukraine's far away um but still if you. had to compare the United States with. what the Chinese would do globally or. what the Russians would do globally over. the last 50, 60, 70 years, you would on. balance take the US. Now the question is. today, would you still make a strong. call for that? H not as clear. A lot of.

countries around the world would say. that the United States has become. actively adversarial. A lot of countries. would say that. The Canadians would say. that, which is crazy. >> Yeah. Canadians never say anything mean. >> Yeah. And now they do. and they won an. election on that and their population is. saying we got to find a way to just work. more with the Europeans, work more with. everybody than the Americans and they're. so incredibly integrated with the US. economy. It's not and security. It's not. like they have much of a choice but it's. hugely popular in Canada to say we can't.

we can never go back to the trusted. relationship we used to have with the. US. And their tourism down to the US is. fallen off a cliff. >> They're really upset because they feel. like we no longer stand for the things. that they thought we stood for. And if. the Canadians feel that way, who are. basically Americans, just a little. older, right? [laughter]. Then how do you think the other people. feel that don't have those relationships. with us, right? >> Huh. That's sad. >> What are what are some of the questions. you have now that you haven't yet found.

the answers for. >> in the world? >> Yeah. Yeah. Just things that you're. pondering and and puzzling through, but. you you haven't yet struck on a. satisfactory answer. >> Uh oh. I want to know when um artificial. intelligence can provide um answers on a. large number of topics that are as good. or better than human beings. I want to. know what that does to political power. I want to know how the Chinese Communist. Party deals with that when Xiinping is.

supposed to be like the oracle from. which all information comes down. Is it. repression? Does it change their system? I'd love to know that. Maybe they'll. just have like a. They'll just their AI I think their. solution is the easiest. They just have. to make sure that their AI just says. like you say to AI in China, hey, what's. happening here or what do you how do I. fix this or and then their AI must just. be like. >> I just asked she and um. >> she was saying that you should uh put. your yeah put the cupboard together like. this you know she actually told me how.

this works. >> chat CCP. sometimes it would be like that's why. she said [laughter]. >> that's a nice one that's what she said. >> that also works. >> that actually works. >> together look at this we got a show here. I mean this is this is doing something. I I can No, honestly, I genuinely think. this is just me with my just wandering. through the streets brain. >> I have no company, nor do I have any. credentials. >> I think AI is going to be a greater. detriment to free nations.

than to nations that have a a strangle. hold on their politics and their. populations because there they can work. to constrain the thing. Whereas [snorts]. in the other one, they're like, "Ah, it's like let it go and see what. happens." And then it's like, "Oh, okay." Well, that was the whole point. >> That's why the J curve became a U. That. is the whole point. >> That's what I'm saying. I think I'm not. sure those are free nations for very. long. If it turns out that the companies. control the algorithms, the AI, and. suddenly you're not a citizen. You're. actually just a product of a business.

model. >> Okay. Okay. So, that's one thing. >> You're an unelected leader all of a. sudden. >> Yeah, you do. [clears throat] I mean, a. second big thing I want to know is what. happens with the social contract when. people that are white white collar. knowledge labor um increasingly no. longer has productive stuff to do. >> That can I tell you that is one of the. biggest ones that people take for. granted. >> because it's exactly that. It's a social. contract that keeps us all moving along. And when it's gone, think of everyone in. an office whose job is only about moving.

information around and remembering it. and dispersing it. And if your company. makes a system that does that. everywhere, I maybe you can tell me this. cuz I I I I've never gotten a. satisfactory answer from CEOs and from. companies, I go, "Why would you do. this?". As I understand, >> why would you do what? >> As I understand business, the point of a. business is to provide some sort of. service to somebody who will then pay. you for it.

>> But like Henry Ford understood, >> you need the people who can buy your. thing. Yes. >> So he paid his workers a certain amount. of money. >> and he made his car a certain price so. that they themselves could buy it. >> Yeah. His first consumers. >> Yeah. But if if companies are going to. make themselves fully AI, AI will. advertise, AI will plan trips, AI will. do the work, AI will then where where's. the business? Yeah. Well, that is a huge. that's a huge question. And you know,

you worry that first of all, some of. these people um are so racing ahead, are. so short-term in their orientation that. they're not worried about that, just. want to get there first and cash out. because because the the the models and. the money that's being raised is so. extraordinary. >> Yeah. >> That's driving the economy. >> Uh and second, of course, there's a. collective action problem to it. If you. don't do it, someone else is going to. >> Yeah. >> Right. So there's the race level of it. um you know and and and then there's. also the disbelief it's the it's it's.

the view that yeah there'll be other. jobs there's always other jobs something. else will come up I do believe that but. I think the issue to borrow from what. you were saying is time. >> and government everything can be figured. out. >> the problem is do you have the time to. figure it out do you get what I'm saying. if everyone loses their jobs over a. hundred years let's say the job of. candle maker goes away over a hundred. years I people will be fine. But if. tomorrow a job that is done by a lot of.

people disappears instantly, you don't have time to figure out what. the next job is. >> I hope that's right. And I think that's. right. But of course, it didn't work out. that way for horses, >> right? I mean, you know, suddenly you. have steam power and the horse. population goes down to 10% of what it. was in one generation because, you know, horses are then useful. >> Population might. >> Well, I I hope not. I'm just saying that. I know that when you suddenly have. technology that surpasses the total. capacity, the total productive capacity. of that entity, Yeah. you no longer need.

the entity. No, but this is where I this. is where I I think honestly on a human. level, I do think we will create a new. thing cuz all jobs are invented. The. issue is I don't know that we'll have. the time. This is where I'm agreeing. with you. I go. >> you do it too quickly and then. do you understand what I'm saying? What. do you think you would do in in the. revolution? >> Making candles. >> No. Like genuine like do you do you do. you do you ever think about like Ian? What do you think you would do you think. you'd be like part of helping? No. I I.

honestly wonder that you don't think. about this at all. >> No. No. I don't think about. >> like let's say it all goes to [ __ ] The. things falling apart the people now is. like where do you see yourself in the. mix? >> I always think. >> front lines planning. >> I'd be a dissident. >> Oh, you'd be a dissident. >> Absolutely. Because I mean, if you think. about back in the Soviet Union before. the collapse, >> there were lots of people that tried to. do what I do. They just didn't do it. like for money. They didn't do it. legally because it was illegal. So, what. did they do? I mean, they, you know, they did sisot literature. They'd do.

like informal coffee house. conversations, but they still tried to. bring truth to people, to their fellow. citizens. So, if that were to truly. happen in the United States, I'd still. do what I do. I would just do it less. effectively and I'd be repressed for it. >> You'd be on the front lines, Eugene. I I. I I think that with everything that. changes, things have been changing since. the beginning of time. But I think it's. the people that have institutional. memory that are lamenting the change. sometimes. I think the younger. generation is not as worried about the. changes that we're facing. I mean, there's kids who don't even know what a. house phone looks like.

>> Well, this is I hear what you mean. >> So, what we are lamenting is the world. as we know it. It's no different from. how when you're in a queue, you were. lamenting being in a queue. >> I mean, yeah. >> You remember, you know, the world that. didn't exist. of the world exist. I'm thinking what we. are doing now, we are almost um we are. here to preserve what was even in. conversations like this. We there will. always be a job for these kind of. people. It's almost like the books of. the future. There'll always be people.

who remember how things were and will. try in their small circles to keep. things the same. The person who bakes. the bread themselves although they can. So this idea sharing will always be and. we've been saying this that um what. we're not realizing is the portals to. this information for the future is. digital media the podcast um the the. YouTubes people in 100 years time if. they want to really know how things were. done just like how people are making. handcrafted binders for books they will.

go and listen to how things were done. there'll be a person who's interested in. disseminating the information and. getting things done but what we can't. stop is things changing they are always. going to change, especially if there's. money involved. Change is inevitable and. like you said, it's a race now. If you. don't do it, someone else will. >> And did the Bob Iger, I think, was right. about this is you you've never no one's. ever been successful trying to stop. technology from happen. So, I mean, it's. not about saying we're not going to do. it. It's going to happen. The question. is being aware of what it is.

>> and trying to align yourself with it. How do you want to spend your time given. how fast it's changing? >> Yeah. Okay. And then what's like a third. question you have? So the first one the. the second question was about AI. >> Yeah. The third one is about um whether. or not we are going to have increasing. global governance to respond to global. challenges, right? Um so you you think. about how so much of these new. technologies, how fast they move. Um,

are we going to have a USChina agreement. the way we did after the Cuban missile. crisis between the US and Soviet Union. so that we didn't blow each other up? >> We created a hotline. We didn't have any. arms control until we almost blew up the. world. Do we have to wait before we. almost blow up the world to have. agreements on how we're going to try to. manage um collectively these new. technologies that are incredibly. powerful to advance humanity.

>> but also are really dangerous in the. hands of the wrong people. bad actors. that would want to create, you know, a. boweapon or that would want to, you. know, sort of knock out an economic. marketplace or flood the world with. disinformation and fake videos. That. can't just be handled in a country. bycountry basis. There are adversaries. out there. We need to make sure that. we're not using them against each other. >> And right now, we don't have any AI arms. control. We don't even have the. beginning of that negotiation. And so.

we're not we don't have 20 years for. that, you know, and and so this. administration is going to have to. engage. Very interesting. You probably. saw that Trump gave this long speech at. the UN this year back in September. >> Yeah. The one where he said like. basically you guys suck and. >> Yeah. >> was it was I mean there were funny parts. of the speech. It's the one the. escalator speech complain. >> It was really interesting. At one point. he actually said there was something he. said a new program that he wanted the US. to start that he asked the UN to be a. part of which you'd never expect him to.

do that. He said I'm really concerned. about um the spread of bioweapons and we. want to have like a new US-led global. initial initiative on that and the UN. has to play a role. Now. >> that he didn't come up with that but the. point is he didn't kill it and no one. around him killed it. >> You can't do this stuff. >> unless there's some kind of global. cooperation. Yeah. It can't just be. America first on protection of the world. from these advanced technologies. There. are some things in the world we still. have to cooperate on. >> and yet we're not moving in that. direction right now. Almost none of the.

big political trajectories are towards. more cooperation. It's all towards. fragmentation. It's all towards picking. a side. >> There's some stuff that we need to. actually work together on. So, I'm. really interested to see how does that. start to happen and does it does it. require a big crisis? >> Yeah. or or can we start to actually. plant some of the seeds to allow for. that without them? >> So, just so that you leave us on a good. note, what have you seen geopolitically. that's given you like a fuzzy warm. feeling? >> Uh, the fact that as the United States.

is playing less of a global leadership. role, that other countries around the. world actually don't want these. institutions to fall apart. M. >> they're not they may not be able to be. the United States themselves, but they. want these things to work. >> They want countries around the world, even China is saying, "No, we still want. the UN. We still want to pay our dues. for the UN. We want the We still want. the IMF. We still want the World Bank. We still want their programs. >> We still want the World Food Program. We. think these things are important. We. still want trade agreements.

>> So, if the US isn't going to be able to. do all the trade right now, well, then. the EU and Merkasaur will try to sign. something up [clears throat] and India. will work with, you know, Australia. And. there's more of that. So there is an. effort to create more resilience in the. system. And it's not everything is not. just about, oh my god, the United States. isn't going to be papa and so we all. have to cower and be on our best. behavior. Oh, this is going to strike. us. No, there's there's actually more. than just the US out there. And a lot of. it is trying to find a way to ensure.

that we still have stability. >> I love that. It's what I what I told my. seven kids. Now that I'm not around, you. guys are going to step up and you're. going to do something for yourselves. >> I'll take three. He'll take four. [laughter]. >> And we move to where? >> Bulgaria. >> Can you bring a whole lot of ballpoint. pens and. >> Oh, man. That That's my favorite ones. The ballpoint pens and the blue jeans. Just you doing that in Did you Did you. ever go back and meet any of those. people? >> Oh, god. Yeah, of course. >> You did? >> Oh, man. That's amazing. >> Yeah, it was really cool.

>> Not on LinkedIn. >> When did you first No. [laughter] When. did you first go back and connect? Like. who did you like? >> Oh, it would have been I mean probably 3. years later, 2 years later. 88 I think. it was. >> You went back and then you. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean I stayed I was pen. pals with these kids. This is pre-. internet. >> That is so. >> So you're then writing notes to these. kids. Yeah. It was wild. >> With your fancy ballpoint pen just. flossing in their faces. >> Dear Vlad, I write this to you elegantly. and with the smoothest precision that a. ballpoint pen can provide. And then for. that was like dearink. [laughter].

>> Oh man, that's I'm glad. That's that's. dope. That's really beautiful. Well, thank you very much for joining us. Thank you so much, man. And thank you. for showing us a new way to see the. world. >> I think that's, you know, that's. honestly one of the things that you've. changed most in my life, which I. appreciate, is just the idea of like. learn [music] to see it. Meet the people. who don't see it the same way you do. Talk to them about why, understand it, and then then you go from there. I I. really appreciate that. Thank you. That. means something, right? Thanks a lot to. me. >> This was really fun. Thank you so much.

>> That's really cool. >> Thank you so much for watching the. episode. If you enjoyed it, pass it on. to a friend. If you didn't enjoy it, pass it on to your friend still. Let. them suffer for a change. And don't. forget to engage with us in the. comments. Uh if you want to suggest a. guest, maybe there's questions you want, maybe there's [music] ideas that you. have, you can chat to us. We will read. through the comments and we'll get into. it. Either way, I appreciate you taking. the time. Thank you for hanging out with. us on What Now. And remember, we do this. for [music] you, so we would like to.

hear from you. Till next time, thank. you.