Big Tech & China: Supply Chains, Trade Wars & Industry's Future | The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart

JON STEWART: You've got these firms in Silicon Valley who. are absolutely crucial to the future of any technology that's. going to be utilized anywhere. And they have the greatest designs and the best silicon. transistor specs, and they're sending. it out to these other places. Did anybody in the government or within those companies. think, but you know we're going to need a lot of uridium. and palladidium and all these other things.

that we are not in any way mining or refining. None of it. SPEAKER 2: It sounds crazy, but the answer is not really. JON STEWART: [LAUGHS] Everything--. I like it how it's always in hindsight, yes, it does sound crazy. [THEME MUSIC]. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to The Weekly Show podcast. My name is Jon Stewart. It is a lovely day. It is May 19.

It is Tuesday. I'm actually on Colbert tonight, so if any-- oh, well, this will be airing tomorrow. I'm actually on Colbert yesterday. That's a strange way to promote that. It's my, sadly, final appearance on The Late Show, and I'm--. I just can't wait to spend some quality time with my friend, hopefully, to the pleasure of the audience. that will be watching. And so I urge all of you, if you are within the sound.

of my voice, please do watch. And not just that. Watch on Wednesday and watch on Thursday and enjoy. Celebrate what has been a remarkable run of a person. and remove it from the melancholy circumstances. by which it occurs. Because his career in broadcasting--. and it's not over by any stretch of the imagination, but it deserves to be separated from whatever. black hole of perverse corruption.

snuffed it out in the first place. And I think that's what I'll be going there to do tonight. And that's what I hope that everyone will be doing. over these next few days. Just truly a once in a lifetime broadcaster, performer, and can't wait to see him. and give him a big old hug. But on the way to that, I would be remiss if I did not also. discuss the Taiwan chip war.

This may be the--. this may be the worst segue I've. ever done in the history of this program, but it is an important. The President of the United States, has just returned from his historic trip. to China, where he got--. what's the Chinese word for bupkis? We got bupkis. And we don't really know-- we got into a trade war. with no real plan. So out of character for this administration. And we're going to see what ends up happening.

And who better to help us understand the parameters. of what might possibly happen than someone who's written. about it for many years? So we're going to get to that. Our guest today is Professor Chris Miller. Chris Miller. [MUSIC PLAYING]. Ladies and gentlemen, we are delighted to be. joined by a gentleman by the name of Chris Miller. He's the author of Chip War. Not Doritos, my friend, it's the fight for the world's. most critical technology. An American historian, economic history, international relations, Chris, you're a professor.

Yes? International history, Tufts University. CHRIS MILLER: That's right. JON STEWART: Beautiful. And this is not your first go round as an author. Putinomics and The Struggle to Save the Soviet Econom, and We Shall Be Masters. Thank you so much for being here to talk to us. You wrote Chip Wars in when, 2022? CHRIS MILLER: That's right, yeah, four years ago. JON STEWART: And that came out. And then like, a month later, ChatGPT launched. Yes? CHRIS MILLER: That's right. And it's been a wild ride in semiconductors since then.

JON STEWART: I mean, the chips almost. became even more seminal and more important. to the world economy. CHRIS MILLER: 100%. Because as we roll out AI, we need bigger and bigger data. centers full of the most advanced semiconductors. that we can make today. JON STEWART: And so the basic premise of Chip Wars kind. of-- it talked about how Taiwan and in combination. with, I guess, some Japanese technology. and some Dutch technology, became the leading edge,

the cutting edge of all of the most specialized chips that are. used in this technology today. CHRIS MILLER: Yeah, That's right. So the key chips, they're designed. still in Silicon Valley by companies like NVIDIA or AMD. But when it comes to AI in particular, they're almost all manufactured by one Taiwanese firm, a company called TSMC, which has. the vast majority of its manufacturing. capabilities in Taiwan.

And so it's this partnership between Silicon. Valley and Taiwan that makes the most. cutting edge chips possible. JON STEWART: And what does Silicon Valley--. what do they give to Taiwan? Is it the software that they give to them? CHRIS MILLER: Well, it's really the designs of the chips. So if you take a piece of silicon, like you'd find inside of your smartphone or in a data center, they've got billions and billions of tiny switches. called transistors that are etched into the silicon. And different designs produce different capabilities.

So an NVIDIA chip's designed differently from an AMD chip, and these designs are what enables progress. in the semiconductor industry. And so these design files are essentially emailed over. to Taiwan, and the Taiwanese do the manufacturing. of these designs and put them into the silicon. JON STEWART: I mean, it's an incredible technology. with advances that take place in terms of hours, not in terms of sort of epochs. So how did you reason-- the reason that I think.

it's important to talk today, especially to somebody. with your expertise--. President of the United States has just come back from China. China obviously has designs on Taiwan, an island that is. very close to their mainland. They always have felt that it is part of, you know, since--. I don't know when it split, '49? Was it Shanghai check in '49? CHRIS MILLER: That's right. Yep. JON STEWART: OK.

So they split off from China. China has always had designs to get it back in the same way, I guess, that Russia would have with Crimea. The President of the United States--. the United States has always been the implicit and sometimes. explicit protector of Taiwan. The President of United States came back and said, maybe I'll use our military support. and weapons to Taiwan as a bargaining chip with China--.

I guess, saying like, if they would. agree to buy more soybeans, we would let them have Taiwan. What was your read on the president's messaging and--. and the future of Taiwan as this-- on the vanguard. of 21st century technology? CHRIS MILLER: Well, I would say, first off, the US has been getting more and more nervous. not just under Trump, but over the last decade. about China's capabilities. So China's wanted to seize Taiwan, as you said,

since 1949. But it's only in the last couple of years. where Chinese military capabilities have grown. to the point where they might now be. able to succeed in doing so. If there was a war right now, nobody. knows how it would play out. And that's increased concern in Washington about. does China have both the intent and the capability. to do something around Taiwan. And that's happened just as Taiwan has gotten more and more. important as a partner, enabling Silicon Valley. to produce all the chips that we need in data centers,

in smartphones, in computers. And so right now, Taiwan is really at the absolute center. of the AI industry. And the US can't do AI without chips. from Taiwan, which means that on the one hand, we've got to treat the Taiwan question very carefully to make. sure that we defend Taiwan. But on the other hand, we also got. to be ready for China looking very carefully at Taiwan, both in terms of achieving its long-term strategic aim. of seizing Taiwan, but also in terms of realizing the more.

pressure China puts on Taiwan, the more pressure it puts on us. and our AI industry, because we're dependent on importing. chips from Taiwan too. JON STEWART: Where does China make their chips? CHRIS MILLER: Well, that's a great question. China would like to import the most. advanced chips from Taiwan, but the United. States doesn't let them. So for the past couple of years, we've said to the Taiwanese, you can't sell the most cutting. edge AI chips to China. And China can't produce these chips domestically. at any scale that matters. So for cutting edge AI chips, China's in a bind.

The most advanced production is in Taiwan. China thinks it owns Taiwan, but it doesn't. And the US does not let Taiwan sell to China, because we want. our companies to have access to the most. advanced AI chips, not China. JON STEWART: What is the relationship. politically between the leaders of Taiwan and Xi of China? Is there a world where this isn't a military operation, but a transactional operation, where Taiwan cuts a deal.

with China to do just that? CHRIS MILLER: No. JON STEWART: In exchange for not, you know, militarily invading them. CHRIS MILLER: I think the short answer is no. JON STEWART: That is the short answer. CHRIS MILLER: You know, the Taiwanese have been very clear. They've repeatedly voted for presidents that have said they. don't want to be integrated into China, that they. want to be an autonomous country, ideally even independent.

Poll after poll of the Taiwanese population. says that they think of themselves as. a separate political entity. And I think what's key here is that if you did. a poll a generation ago in Taiwan, you would have found a lot of people. who would have said they're part Chinese, but part Taiwanese. If you do that poll today, what you find. is that as the generations change, Taiwanese think of themselves increasingly. as a separate country, a separate society. And so there's not much interest at all in any sort. of integration with China. JON STEWART: And even economically-- forget. about political independence or integrating in that way--.

they have no interest in saying to the United States, look, we love your chips. We love your sweet, sweet silicon. transistors by the billions. We'd like to cut a deal with these guys. Economically, we think it'd be beneficial for us. We think it would ease the pressure on us. in terms of them threatening to invade us.

Is that even a possibility? CHRIS MILLER: There's some more nuance there. There are some people in Taiwan, especially in the business community, who. make that argument and say, if we have closer. economic ties with China, the political situation. will be more stable. But I think the dominant view in Taiwan is to say, look, our population is a tiny fraction of China's. There's no hope of an equal economic relationship. And in fact, a lot of people in Taiwan. worry that the closer the economic ties, the more China will smother them, given its size. And so if you look at where Taiwan's been investing, where.

Taiwan's been diversifying its trade over the last decade, it's been trying to turn away from China because it's. afraid that economic ties are a beachhead. for political influence. JON STEWART: What are the other-- so in Taiwan, you've got this incredible chip industry that is dominant. They are the monopoly in terms of this kind of manufacturing. What else do they do? Is it a Saudi Arabia, you know, oil. economy situation and now they've. suddenly decided to diversify?

Is it all electronics and circuitry? What do they do there? CHRIS MILLER: Yeah. There's a whole range of manufacturing from machine. tools to plastics, but the electronics industry. is by far the dominant player. And it's not just chips. It's the chemicals that go into the chip plants. It's once you take a chip, you put. it on a printed circuit board. You wire it together with other devices. You can make almost anything electronic in Taiwan. And they're the leader, not just. at the chip segment of the supply chain, but at many other segments, too.

And it's been a great business for them. It's why they're one of the wealthiest countries in Asia. despite that, two generations ago, they were a country doing nothing but farming. JON STEWART: It's an incredible story. Where are they getting the materials for this? CHRIS MILLER: Well, the materials are. easy to dig out of the ground. There's silicon everywhere. The challenge is getting the materials refined to the level. of purity that you need. And so when it comes to manufacturing chips, you're manufacturing at essentially the atomic level. And so your materials have to be purified basically.

to the atomic level as well. And so in the chip industry they talk about eight nines. of purity, so 99.999999 is the level. of purity you'll need for certain types. of chemicals or gases. JON STEWART: Wow, that's like Dial soap. That might be the only other substance as pure as that. So when they talk about--. because there's all these things floating around. So they say that Silicon Valley provides.

the silicon, which is embedded with the billions. of transistors. What do the Japanese do in this supply chain? CHRIS MILLER: Yeah. So today, Silicon Valley doesn't do much silicon at all. They just do the designs, first and foremost. JON STEWART: Oh, so they're just doing-- they're. sending out blueprints. It's just they're emailing you, here's. how you want to-- here's how you. want to draw your little maze. Because they seem to look like little mazes. CHRIS MILLER: That's right. That's right. Yeah. That is most of what Silicon Valley does today. There used to be actual silicon in Silicon Valley.

That's why they named it Silicon Valley, but not anymore. JON STEWART: And it was a valley. CHRIS MILLER: And it was a valley. That's right. JON STEWART: Yes. CHRIS MILLER: That's right. So today it's actually the Japanese. that are the world's leader in making. the wafers, ultra pure silicon wafers, and many of the other chemicals that you. need to manufacture chips. JON STEWART: And then what are--. the Dutch do something. I don't know if it's the icing. What do the Dutch bring to this process? Because that's the third leg, yes? CHRIS MILLER: That's right. Yeah. So if you want to pattern where each of the transistors.

goes on a chip-- so put your design file actually. into silicon-- you need a tool called. a photo lithography tool. And the Dutch have the world's leading company, really the world's only company that produces the most cutting. edge versions of these tools. JON STEWART: I have to tell you, as I hear it described, I can't help but feel a sense of pride for humankind. I can remember, Professor, my father worked at RCA.

This is in the '60s, late '60s. And he brought home, in 1969, maybe '70, a calculator. And the calculator that he brought home. was the size of a desk. And it added, and subtracted, and multiplied, and divided. And we played with it for hours,

but it was the size of a desk. And I imagine it's the exact same principles. as what is now going into these supercomputer. AGI chatbot models. Is it all the same principle? CHRIS MILLER: It pretty much is. You're carving little circuits into silicon. And the difference is that, compared to the 1960s, you're carving a billion times more circuits. than was possible then.

JON STEWART: And that is what gives it the ability. to make as many calculations as it does at the speed. that it does. CHRIS MILLER: Yeah, that's right. So if you think of all your files, all of your text messages, all your Instagram likes, they're all just long strings of ones and zeros. That's what the entire digital world--. and each of those has to be reflected. by a switch in the silicon turning on and off. And that's why, for the most cutting edge.

chips like those inside of your phone, you need 10 billion or 20 billion of these tiny switches, all carved into a chip the size of your fingernail. JON STEWART: And doesn't this sum up the human experience? It is our expertise and scientific advancement that. allows for this technology. And it is our--. I want to say conceitedness that. is that we use it for Instagram likes, like this.

It's-- it's almost shocking. Hey, folks, you know, I ask you this question a lot of times. Where do you get your news from? Me, I'm a town crier guy. I like to go outside in the street, see if there's, you know, a young person. in knickers with a giant bell telling me what's happening. But I know that dude. He's from my neighborhood.

But most of your news, you don't. know where it's coming from. You don't know the biases involved with these people. That's where Ground News--. do you know Ground News? It's an app. It's a website. And it helps users see beyond whatever single narrative. they're getting. Subscriber funded, by the way. This isn't like, some multinational AI. devious sociopath created--. I'm not naming names. I'm just telling you, this is subscriber funded. No corporate incentives that are influencing.

what you're going to see. Aggregates are reporting from 50,000. plus news sources worldwide. It compares how these different outlets frame the same story. And I think, as you can see, they. frame it differently depending on which. Murdoch they're working for. You know what I'm talking about. We don't need to--. I don't need to spell this out for you people. To get unlimited access to the Vantage subscription, go to GroundNews.com/Stewart.

Subscribe to get 40% off. The discount's available only for a limited time. That's GroundNews.com/Stewart, or you can just. scan the QR code on screen. And don't forget to get 40% off Ground News. at GroundNews.com/Stewart. But want to get back. So you've got this little supply chain. What is China's role in all of this? Why do we care? If they're not involved in this-- or is it--. what are they providing into this chain.

that we need them for? CHRIS MILLER: Well, it's a key question. If you look in terms of dollars, almost all. of the money goes to companies outside of China--. US, Taiwan, Japan, Netherlands. But the thing that Chinese do provide. are some of the basic materials that go in. So rare earth elements, for example, are needed in certain parts of the chip making process. And those are mined and processed. largely in China, in some cases, almost exclusively in China. And so for the past couple of years,

China's been choking off the export. of these critical materials, which. has caused problems for the entire semiconductor. supply chain. JON STEWART: When you say rare earths-- because you just. said silicon is the main ingredient, and that's not rare, that's everywhere. It's sand, I guess. It's everywhere. It just needs to be purified. Are they actually rare or are these materials everywhere but. we just haven't dug for them?

CHRIS MILLER: They are everywhere. What is rare is deposits that have enough concentration. to make it economically viable to mine them. and to process them. JON STEWART: What kind of materials are we talking about? CHRIS MILLER: Well, you got to out your periodic table. and rewind it. JON STEWART: Wait. I have it. Hold on. CHRIS MILLER: So they get pretty obscure pretty quickly. Yttrium, dysprosium, terbium-- things you. would never think about but--. JON STEWART: Just made up words, basically. CHRIS MILLER: Well, you know, a lot of these materials. were only identified in terms of how.

do you actually mine and process. them in the last half-century. So they are pretty new materials. in terms of manufacturing, but they've. become critical to the entire electronics supply chain. JON STEWART: So you have detailed in your book, and I think brilliantly, and it's so interesting, how Taiwan. became the leader in these kinds of chip assemblages. and chip production. And if we could, just briefly walk us back. Because it was not--. it was not a Fait accompli that Taiwan was going.

to be the leader in that. There was a gentleman from Texas. Instruments who had that expertise. and took it to Taiwan. Yes? CHRIS MILLER: Yeah, that's right. So the chip manufacturing industry. started in Silicon Valley and in Texas, with Texas Instruments being one of the key players, including in the calculator industry, like your-- like your father was working on. And for a long time, it was the US. that was the dominant manufacturer of chips. But in 1987, this gentleman, Morris Chang, was passed over for the CEO job at Texas Instruments--.

JON STEWART: Oh, my god. CHRIS MILLER: --one of the greatest. mistakes in American history. [LAUGHS] And he went to the Taiwanese government and said, I'd like to start semiconductor manufacturing company. that'd be different than any other company that. came before it. Because before that point, companies designed and. manufactured chips in house. You did both the design and the manufacturing. He said, I only want to manufacture. I want to be sort of like what Gutenberg was for books. Gutenberg didn't write any books. He only printed them.

Morris Chang didn't want to design any chips. He only wanted to manufacture them. And that's the origins of Taiwan's dominant position. in chip making today. JON STEWART: Why was it that in the United States, with this at their hand, that they weren't able to do both? Was it that they just didn't see the future? They didn't see it coming? CHRIS MILLER: Yeah, I think that's--. that's the primary explanation. You had these big companies like TI, like Intel at the time, which were doing well. They believed their existing business model of both design.

and manufacturing sense. And there was this pretty disruptive idea that Morris. Chang came up with. At first, it wasn't clear it was going to work. And it was only over the last decade or two. that it became obvious it was the best possible way. to manufacture chips, because you can not. just manufacture for yourself. You manufacture for the entire industry, for NVIDIA, for AMD, for Apple. And you have these huge economies of scale. that result from that. JON STEWART: The story of manufacturing. has always been to create efficient assembly.

line methodologies. How did they not-- how did they miss this in such. an advanced industry if Ford is the one who figured it out. for automobiles, so that you could democratize this process. and make a product that would revolutionize travel. available to people at a scale that made the pricing. make sense?

How was that not obvious to everyone. in this nascent computer industry? CHRIS MILLER: Well, I think in hindsight, it certainly looks obvious. But if you go back to the time Morris Chang. went to his colleagues at TI and said, let's make what he called a foundry, this company that would just manufacture, not do any design. And they asked, who are your customers going to be? And he said, well, there aren't any customers today. because there weren't any companies. that only designed chips then. You had to have your own in-house factory. He said, if I build it, they will come.

And that was a risky bet at the time. But it proved right. And just as he was setting up TSMC, in part because he set up. TSMC, you had companies like Qualcomm or NVIDIA. founded at the same time that never manufactured. They just designed and sent those designs to Taiwan. JON STEWART: See, what I find so interesting about that, Professor, and I don't know--. so if you think about the creation of the industry. at large for computing, it was founded on the idea.

that, like Microsoft, we're not going to make the hardware. We're just going to make the operating system. And if our operating system is embedded in everything, we have a monopoly. And if that's how they were viewing software, I'm surprised that they weren't also viewing. that for the brain of whatever it was that they were going. to create-- that they would not only own the operating system, but they would own the physical brain for all of these.

CHRIS MILLER: Yeah. Well, I think the other dynamic is financial, which. is that the closer you are to the customer, the more you can charge. And so you look today, TSMC is a $2 trillion business. NVIDIA, which relies on TSMC for almost. every single chip manufacturers, NVIDIA is a $5 trillion business. And so if you say, would you rather be TSMC or NVIDIA, the answer right now is clearly NVIDIA.

And that's just one of TSMC's many customers. And so here's the paradox, is that Silicon Valley made. the right choice financially. The US has by far the most valuable chip. firms in the world, an ecosystem. that everyone is envious of. But it was only possible to get that because we. had this reliance on Taiwan. It was a rational choice to outsource. the manufacturing to Taiwan. The only problem is that, as we were. doing that, China's military threats. and capabilities were growing. JON STEWART: So who are the companies-- when. you talk about-- so in Silicon Valley you've got Chip design.

That's NVIDIA. Who else is on the cutting edge of that, Intel? CHRIS MILLER: So Intel's a bit of a different case. because they still have some in-house manufacturing. But set them aside. JON STEWART: OK. CHRIS MILLER: NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm, Apple, Google, Amazon-- all of these companies design chips and manufacture. almost all of them at TSMC. JON STEWART: See, this blows my mind. Because if you think about it, you're telling. a story of specialization.

In Silicon Valley. It was important for them financially. and otherwise to specialize. So they're going to do that. Then you have a company like Amazon who is saying, OK, yeah, we're going to specialize in that. But we're also going to send you books. and energy bars to your house. Like, that almost seems antithetical. to the entire premise. CHRIS MILLER: Yeah,. Yeah. Well, and that's been a big change the last 5 or 10 years, is that all the big tech firms used to just. buy chips from chip designers.

Now, because they're running these vast data centers--. which is a new thing. It's just the last decade that Amazon. and Microsoft have become these massive cloud. computing companies. They've realized that if you're going to own this many chips, you're better off if some of them. are specialized to the specific types of calculations. that you're undertaking. And that's why today the big tech. firms are among the biggest buyers of specialized chips. JON STEWART: So now let's take it, like, back into that geopolitical arena. that we were talking about earlier. You've got these firms in Silicon Valley who.

are absolutely crucial to the future of any technology that's. going to be utilized anywhere, and they have the greatest. designs and the best silicon transistor specs, and they're sending it out to these other places. Did anybody in the government or within those companies. think, but you know we're going to need a lot of iridium. and palladidium and all these other things.

that we are not in any way mining or refining? None of it. CHRIS MILLER: It sounds crazy, but the answer is not really. JON STEWART: [LAUGHS] Everything--. I like it how it's always, in hindsight, yes, it does sound crazy. CHRIS MILLER: Yeah, I think two things happened. One is that companies were late to really. realize how problematic the US-China relationship was.

going to get. They were constantly hoping, well, the next president. is going to make it better, or Xi. Jinping is going to change his mind, and it never happened. It's just been more and more conflict over the last decade, and companies were slow to realize that. But the second thing is that even if you're. one of the biggest tech companies, on your own, it's hard to solve a mining problem. since you are miles away from mining in the supply chain. You're not buying yttrium or dysprosium. Your suppliers aren't buying it. It's the suppliers of your suppliers of your suppliers,

which are often in different countries. or different continents. And so these big tech companies often. struggle themselves to understand how much yttrium. is in their end product. JON STEWART: Oh, they don't even. understand downrange what is required to make their product. CHRIS MILLER: They've been spending the last couple. of years trying to get up to speed, and it's a hard set of questions. JON STEWART: [LAUGHS] You know what they should do. is plug it into ChatGPT, and it'll just.

come out with a whole list of dysprosium, where you can buy it. When did the first-- because I'm. having trouble wrapping my mind around it. because it's so bananas to me. It reminds me of, you know, we have cars, but you know what we're going to need for those cars. Tires and vulcanized rubber. Oh, yeah, but we don't have rubber. Oh, well, we better figure that out.

Imagine people going, no. Hey, man, I just designed the cars. I don't know what--. you know. I didn't realize we needed rubber. CHRIS MILLER: Yeah. No, it does sound like a total failure. of supply chain management. And I think that's fair. I think in the defense of the tech companies, here's what's different from cars. So when Henry Ford was around, the number of suppliers he had. was small and all of them were in Michigan. Today, if you're putting together a smartphone, you've got thousands and thousands of suppliers,

both the ones you're buying from directly. and their suppliers, and they're on every continent. in the world. And the number of materials that goes into a smartphone. is in the dozens. JON STEWART: But what I would say. is I'll almost give a pass to the tech company. because they're focused on the one thing. Who I won't give a pass to is the United States government. How you have an industry that is so crucial to--. I mean, right now, all the discussion is we're not allowed. to put any guardrails on AI.

We're not allowed to regulate in any sense. Because if we slow them down for just a moment, they will be passed by China, and America will. no longer be a superpower. If that is the stakes that we're dealing with, their inability to plan this out in some measure. is-- almost feels unforgivable. CHRIS MILLER: It's certainly led us.

to a pretty tough situation. And I think here's the-- here's the real dilemma. is that governments know less than companies. If you ask the government, explain the supply. chain for an AI server--. JON STEWART: Oh, wow. CHRIS MILLER: --their first step is to call the companies. that design the AI servers. Because how would the government. know who are the component suppliers. for this or that piece? And so you'd like to think the government should be in charge, but then you realize the government. knows less than companies do. JON STEWART: Right, and they're not. putting together a strategic planning board.

that reaches out to Silicon Valley and says, how can we make your industry more resilient. and how can we safeguard your supply chains? Even-- when was the first--. Professor, when was the first supply chain. disruption in this industry? Was it 2010? CHRIS MILLER: Yeah, 2010 and 2011, China first. started cutting off rare earths to Japan, which had implications for the entire tech sector. Then China rolled it back, and most of the industry.

basically forgot about it, hoped that it. would never come again. And that should have been our wake up call, but it wasn't. JON STEWART: But it was a wake up call for Japan. CHRIS MILLER: That's right. That's right. JON STEWART: And what-- so how did Japan deal with--. when it first hit in 2010-- so remember, this is 16 years ago. What did they do at that point? CHRIS MILLER: So they started investing in rare earth mines. and processing facilities outside of China, so a big one in Australia processing in Malaysia. They didn't solve their problem,

but they took some meaningful steps to mitigate their risk. And in the United States, we did essentially nothing. JON STEWART: [LAUGHS] I'm sorry. It's not funny. CHRIS MILLER: It's tragic. JON STEWART: But it's funny. You know, the funny thing about the ads, the commercials that are happening, I don't know where--. I don't know where they occur. This could be the first ad you're hearing. This could be the last ad you're hearing. This could be in the middle of the podcast. So my point being, I don't know if you're sleeping.

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the mining, it could be 20 years. before something comes online and is really significant. So here's what's crazy about that. What was the year again that they. disrupted the supply chain? CHRIS MILLER: 2010. JON STEWART: And what year is it now? CHRIS MILLER: [LAUGHS] We're almost there. We should, by now, have the mines ready. JON STEWART: Right. CHRIS MILLER: Yep, that's right. That's right. JON STEWART: If we had in that moment said, oh, this isn't-- now--. and I don't know this, and maybe this is something.

that you don't know either. But let's just say, geologically, surely there. are places in the United States where these elements exist. in a concentrated enough form that we would be. able to mine them effectively. I think refining them is a much different process. And from what I understand, it's--. it's not particularly pleasant. CHRIS MILLER: That's right. But your intuition is correct.

There are places in the US, as well as in South America, and in Africa, and elsewhere, that you can find the materials. you need. And the processing is not easy. It's sometimes not that clean, it's not cheap, but it's also not rocket science. JON STEWART: How much have the Chinese. monopolized this industry? And is any of their forays into Africa. also involved in the rare earth industry? Is any of their belt and road investments-- in other words,

I guess what I'm getting at is they very clearly. have an industrial policy. CHRIS MILLER: Yup. JON STEWART: How much has their industrial policy-- we're still. ahead in making the specs. But how much have we built this industry on the tenuous edge. of a rock that's teetering? And how much of the foundation of these industries. do they now control? CHRIS MILLER: So for certain of the rare earths, especially.

what's called the heavy rare earths, their processing share is almost 100%, almost all processing today is in China. JON STEWART: Of rare earths? CHRIS MILLER: Of certain types of rare earths. Everyone has a different type of processing, but certain ones, it's basically all in China. Now, that's not true for the mining in some cases. And everyone is different, but there's. a literal monopoly for certain types of materials. JON STEWART: So why in God's name. would we start a trade war with them?

CHRIS MILLER: I think the administration very clearly. wasn't expecting, but should have. expected China to retaliate using exactly this tool. JON STEWART: The one tool that our most important. industry is based on. What did you make of it? Did you follow--. I thought it was really unusual that when they went. to the summit, they brought basically our entire tech. industry with them--. I mean, Qualcomm, Apple, NVIDIA, Tesla, SpaceX, Boeing,

and then obviously the financial guys. from, I don't know, Goldman Sachs, and Blackstone, and all that. What did you make of the presence of those companies. and individuals? Was it-- I can't wrap my mind around was. it a show of strength or was it in some. ways a show of deference? CHRIS MILLER: You know, I think the dilemma. we face as a country is that China is both our number one. economic competitor, but also a huge market for our most.

important companies. And for companies, they are laser focused on keeping access. to the China market so important to their sales. and financial performance, which means they're constantly. pushing the US government to make sure that China. policy is made with a focus on company sales in China in mind. And so most of the CEOs that were visiting, they wanted to make sure they could keep selling into China. A, that the US would let them keep selling, and B, that China would keep taking their products. because they need the market.

JON STEWART: It strikes me as such a fundamentally backwards. way then of demonstrating strength and leverage, is to bring with you the most powerful business. leaders in our country to basically. genuflect as opposed to demonstrate straight resolve. CHRIS MILLER: And China knows that it's got a really powerful. tool in terms of its ability to cut off access to our companies.

whenever it wants to. And it's done that on a regular basis. JON STEWART: So what was the greatest. strength then for America? It's clearly now not our materials, our manufacturing process. What is it? Is it our allies? CHRIS MILLER: But even when you look at materials, I think it's a nuanced picture. So China produces a lot of the basic materials. But if you look at the high-end materials. that those basic materials are based on, a lot of that R&D. still happens in the United States.

or in friendly countries like Japan. So we're great at taking the stuff that China produces, doing R&D on top of it, and selling it for a lot more money. to the rest of the world. Like, if you look at rare earths, does China make any money off of rare earths? No, almost none. JON STEWART: Wait, really? CHRIS MILLER: It's a tiny business. Tiny industry. JON STEWART: Rare earths, an industry. that crucial to the technological progress of. humankind, is a bad business? CHRIS MILLER: It's a bad business. And the reason that China dominates it.

is because Chinese firms produce and then. sell with little to no profit. And so they undercut any other company that. wanted to enter the market. Because you can't make any money because China. is producing at very low prices. JON STEWART: So what their understanding is, this isn't a money maker. This is a strategic sledgehammer. And it's worth it to us--. they used to call this in the business, a loss leader. CHRIS MILLER: Yeah. JON STEWART: You know, it's like when you go by the--.

I can't remember what it was--. Hickory Farms, and they'd have the little plate. with the little cheese cubes. And you'd go out and go, you're not making any money on this. You're just giving it away. And they're like, right, but we got you in the store, didn't we? Is that their methodology for this? CHRIS MILLER: Yeah, that's 100% right. And it's worked. It's worked. It's got us in the store. It's made us dependent on their materials. And right now, we're in a position where even our most. expensive products, our most advanced chips, we can't sell them unless we can get. these materials from China. JON STEWART: Well, now let's--. let's complicate it a little more.

Let's get away from-- because right now, we're just talking about sort of the advantage. that China might have for the very beginning. of our supply chain. Right? They've got the mines, they refine the materials, and then they send them out for all our brilliant engineers. and technologists. To make the Dutch come in, they buff it up a little bit. The Japanese do their thing. What we've learned about manufacturing in China. is they invited Apple in, let them pay workers much less,

let them take advantage of the freer regulations and all that. And all they had to do was bring their expertise. But what did the Chinese have them do? Train all of their people on their expertise. And so now they have industries that are competing with that. Are they doing the same with these chips? CHRIS MILLER: For a long time the answer was yes, and they were making progress in catching up.

But then, in 2019, the US and the Dutch and the Japanese. began restricting sale of certain of these advanced chip. making tools to China. And so right now, the ASML, the Dutch tools we. were talking about, you can't sell them to China. at the most advanced levels. And it's really cut off a lot of the progress. that China had been making. And it's meant that, for the most advanced chips, almost all of them, including all of the R&D, is happening outside of China, in Taiwan, and Japan,

and the US, and in Europe. And it's only because of these controls that that's the case. JON STEWART: But let me ask you-- knowledge travels. I mean, it's one of the things that we're seeing now. We take it outside of a trade war and put it into a real war. It's one of the reasons why, you know, things are so fraught in Iran. We obviously have nuclear knowledge and technology. that far exceeds theirs. But they're getting enough of it that they can compete. and that they can make-- they've.

got the centrifuges now. They've got the other stuff. What is preventing China from developing. the kind of expertise and knowledge, of bringing in the leaders in that industry to educate? I mean, I can't imagine that they're not planning for that. CHRIS MILLER: They're certainly trying. But I'd say different types of knowledge travels. at different speeds. JON STEWART: OK. CHRIS MILLER: Nuclear weapons, you mentioned--. nuclear weapons were invented now in the 1940s.

They're so straightforward, even the North. Koreans can make them. And so the level of complexity in nuclear weapons. is a tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of the level. of complexity in one of these Dutch tools. that's used for making chips. You've got the most complex engineering ever done, hundreds of thousands of components, manufacturing happening at the nanometer scale. That's that's virus sized, and it's got to happen. accurately every single time. And so, yeah, China's trying to copy it. You know, Dutch media have repeatedly.

reported of different ways that Chinese hackers. have broken into the Dutch company. to try to steal the blueprints. That's all happening, but it's really hard stuff. And it's now been almost a decade that China has been. trying to copy this machine, and they haven't. made a lot of progress. JON STEWART: How much of a moving target. is this expertise? In other words, if they were 10 years behind. and they're slowly catching up, how much more. advanced-- you know, are we still disappearing.

past the horizon or is it a little bit more. of a fixed target, and they're going to be. able to find their way to it? CHRIS MILLER: Yeah. No, that's a key point. And because technology moves forward so rapidly, it's a very, very fast moving target. And the reason why you've got companies. like NVIDIA or like TSMC that have. this dominant market position is precisely because their R&D. is so capable. Every year, they're delivering a much, much. better manufacturing process or a much, much better design.

And so if you're sitting in China, you're not trying to catch up to 2026 level. If you hit 2026, but it's already 2030, you're light years behind. And so you've got to catch up to this moving train. It's been very difficult to do. JON STEWART: Will it be-- in your estimation, is it easier for us to catch up on the raw materials end. or for them to catch up on the the high-tech refinement end? CHRIS MILLER: I would rather have our problem.

than their problem. JON STEWART: OK. Well, OK, listen. I don't know how far into the podcast we are. We could be an hour. We could be two hours. I don't really know. But I just heard a glimmer of hope. I just heard a little flash of sunshine. that that just came out there. You'd rather have our problem. How would you attack our problem? CHRIS MILLER: So here's why. Here's why. First, the-- the mining of the materials. that can happen in a bunch of different countries.

Not easy, but we know the materials are out there. JON STEWART: Is it happening in a bunch of other countries? CHRIS MILLER: It's starting to happen. JON STEWART: So some of these-- some of these mines. are starting to come online. CHRIS MILLER: That's right. That's right. Yep, that's the first. The second is that the processing, it gets better over time. But the rate of improvement is nowhere near the rate. of improvement in chips, which means that we. can figure this stuff out. And a lot of the processing steps were invented in the US. or in Japan or in Europe. So again, this is-- it's not simple, but it's not rocket science either.

JON STEWART: You're talking about the refinement. of the raw materials, the rare earth metals. that they're pulling out. CHRIS MILLER: Exactly. JON STEWART: We actually invented that process. CHRIS MILLER: For certain types of them, yes, invented in the United States. JON STEWART: And then decided, but we don't-- we. don't want to do it. That would be too easy. We're not going to bother with that. CHRIS MILLER: Yeah. Most of the key rare earth magnets, for example, these chemistries were invented in the United. States, often in US military labs,

before we got out of the business. And so can we learn that again? I think the answer is pretty clearly yes. JON STEWART: Now, my understanding of the trade war. is, to some extent, it's being levied. to force the corporations to repatriate some. of the manufacturing base that we lost when China joined. the WTO and, you know, globalization sort of hollowed. out our base.

Would that be accurate? CHRIS MILLER: Yeah, I think that's right. And that's how the president sees the dynamics. But I think I would say a lot has. changed in the last 30 years. The way you make a car then versus now. is totally different. You know, then we didn't have cars. that could drive themselves. Today, we're on the cusp of autonomous. driving in a big way. And so we shouldn't be trying to rewind the clock to 1990. But we should be asking ourselves, how do we manufacture the things that will want to be. producing at scale in 2035?

And those are two very different questions. JON STEWART: Now, is that what--. when they had passed the CHIPS Act, is that was--. was that intended to address the issue. that you're talking about? CHRIS MILLER: I think partly. But I think also the CHIPS Act was laser focused on the Taiwan. dependency that we started our conversation with, which is that if your entire tech sector relies on one. provider and China keeps threatening to blockade. or invade them, that's a huge strategic challenge too. JON STEWART: All right, Professor, this is where.

the rubber meets the road. I hate to come back to rubber again, vulcanized rubber, by the way, the processing of. the rare materials of rubber. You have the opportunity to be Silicon Valley. for our manufacturing process or base in America, in the sense that I want you to think about the specs, the blueprint. If you're designing a process between government. and these companies, and a strategy to make America more.

resilient and yet still remain at the forefront. of these technologies, what would you do? How would you design that? CHRIS MILLER: Here's what I'd say. Our problem is not innovation. Our problem is dependence on China for critical components. JON STEWART: That's it. It's as simple as that. CHRIS MILLER: Simple as that. Our companies are the most innovative in the world. We've got no problems on that front. It's that we're too dependent on Chinese inputs. for all the innovative products that we make.

And so I think that's a problem that's solvable. Part one is to say we've got these allies in Japan, in Canada, in Europe and Australia. They've got great geology, they've got great. manufacturing capabilities. Let's work with them, not against them. That's part one. JON STEWART: OK, Professor. CHRIS MILLER: Yeah. JON STEWART: I've got some bad news for you. [LAUGHTER]. CHRIS MILLER: It's been a complicated couple of years. JON STEWART: When we launched the trade war, you may not have noticed, we didn't do it just to China. So, again-- and I hate to come back to the part. where my brain hurts--.

but the first piece of strategy-- and we'll. get back to the rest of the strategy. But the first piece of strategy you laid out. is our strength is in the alliances we have. with these other countries like Canada, and we're absolutely obliterating. those relationships. CHRIS MILLER: I would not have put that. at the start of my strategy. Totally agree. JON STEWART: [LAUGHS] So that's--. so let's say that those relationships are good. CHRIS MILLER: Yeah. JON STEWART: How are you leveraging those relationships.

to make us stronger? CHRIS MILLER: So all of these countries trees. have a similar version of the dilemma. They're becoming more dependent on China too. Every single year, China is competing. with their industries. They need Chinese rare earths and other inputs. And so we ought to work with them to lock out the Chinese. from our market and say, we can't. have more Chinese rare earths, but we. can source from among these friendly countries whoever's. got the best geology for this mineral, that mineral, whoever's got the best component. for this manufactured good or that manufactured good.

That ought to be the strategy is band. together with your friends. JON STEWART: Would you invest-- how would you sweeten that pot. for places that have-- you know, for instance, in China, because they're much more focused. on central planning, they look at the future. and say, well, the real problem here for us. is going to be electrification. So we might have the rare materials, we might have that. But if we move towards where everything is moving towards--.

AI and cloud computing--. we're also going to need, in the way. that they're trying to build data centers here, they're going to need giant data centers, and they're going to need a ton of water. And they can just go out to the rural areas of China and go, we're doing it here. And the populists can't go, not in my backyard. You know, how are we going to do that? How do we incentivize these other countries keeping. an eye on the electric--- you know, with our eye down the road?

CHRIS MILLER: I think there's a lot of different tactical ways. you could target this industry or that industry. But we have one superpower that we haven't used enough, and that's the size of our market. If you add up the US economy plus the European economy plus. the Japanese economy, you're already at 2 and 1/2. times larger than China. JON STEWART: Really? CHRIS MILLER: And companies collectively. were much larger than China. The problem is we've been dividing ourselves. into different parts rather than. aggregating it all together. And if you're a company that has to choose, do you want access to that market or the Chinese markets,

that's a small fraction. The choice is obvious. JON STEWART: How would China react to-- would they see that. as hostile? Or would they seek to come up with something that's. a little bit more-- would they seek. a compromise in that scenario? CHRIS MILLER: I think they would see it as hostile. But they also need access to our market, because their entire manufacturing base is geared. towards exporting to us, to the United States,

to Europe, to Japan. We're buying all the products that they're producing. And if we've threatened to close that off and cause. immense problems for their entire industrial base, I think it's a lot more likely that they're. going to come to the table. JON STEWART: I don't know what you do on your computer, but chances are you don't want me to know. what you do on your computer. Not that I'm in any way suggesting. that your searches are untoward,

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but do you think one of the unintended consequences. of this trade war is not only have they, in the way that Iran. now recognizes the power they have over the Strait of Hormuz, China recognizes now the power they. have in terms of rare earths. But almost equally as importantly, they recognize that they can diversify their export base. Forgive me if this is the wrong information, but my understanding is their exports.

went up after we levied those tariffs, not to the United States. They just developed more resilient. supply lines elsewhere. CHRIS MILLER: Yeah, and the exports went to Europe. They went to India. They went elsewhere. And those are exactly the countries. we should be trying to get on our team, working with us to build one collective market. that China has to negotiate access into. JON STEWART: I think BYD just got into Canada. CHRIS MILLER: That's right. That's right. And I think that's an error on the part of Prime. Minister Carney up in Canada. But I think that shows that if you're.

going to bully your friends, they're going to diversify. their partnerships. JON STEWART: Why would you say it's an error? Because you think it's going to crush. Canadian electric car markets or just. their car markets in general? CHRIS MILLER: I think both. Also, it's going to be a major issue in the relationship. with the United States. JON STEWART: Although, I imagine at this point for them, they probably feel like, well, what else are we supposed to--. I mean, they're so reliant on the United States.

It feels like this trade war has forced. everybody to look elsewhere. CHRIS MILLER: Yeah, I agree with that. And I think we should be doing the opposite, forcing them to look towards us, aligning their policies with us, and tackling the Chinese challenge collectively. JON STEWART: Now, this is probably. going to be outside your area of expertise, but I'm going to ask you to weigh in on it. like you're an expert anyway. And I want you to talk with certainty. and just say that you can't be wrong. because you're a professor. CHRIS MILLER: All right. JON STEWART: I know you have the diplomas. CHRIS MILLER: [CHUCKLES]. JON STEWART: This is-- now, this. is the metaphorical nuclear weapon in the conversation.

So our actions, alienating our allies while not making inroads. to our rivals in terms of the resilience. of our supply chains, has forced people to look. elsewhere in the world. But our one final card to play has always. been that we are the reserve currency, whether it's. petrodollars or dollars. That is our final weapon that we deploy.

Is all of this weakening that--. that last bullet we have in our gun as well? CHRIS MILLER: You know, I think it's the right question to ask, but I think the answer is not yet. JON STEWART: OK. CHRIS MILLER: First, if you look. at the value of the dollar versus other currencies, you haven't seen a major move. You'd expect the dollar to fall in value if everyone. was selling their dollars. Not happening. JON STEWART: Hasn't it fell, though, in the past two--.

CHRIS MILLER: A bit. JON STEWART: Right. CHRIS MILLER: But currencies move up and down. and nothing-- nothing that suggests a dramatic change. JON STEWART: OK. Nothing that you would think is like, oh, this is a permanent change. How much of it, though, besides the value of it. is the strategic play that, in the way that-- you know, Canada may not look at bringing BYD. in as a great strategic move, but they feel. like it's their only move. Do you think other countries might look at it like, if this. is the way the United States is going to behave,

we have to do this? CHRIS MILLER: The second question. is, if you're not going to buy dollars, what are you going to buy? There's only so many Argentinean pesos in the world, Swiss Francs, small country. JON STEWART: Well, the Chinese, you know, currency perhaps. CHRIS MILLER: Well, and so this is the key question. Because one of the reasons that Chinese manufacturing. is so competitive is that they control their currency by not. allowing the free exchange of renminbi into other currencies.

And if they were to ever open that up, it would create potentially significant. economic problems for them. So rather than internationalizing renminbi, they've been actually trying to lock down. the flows in and out of China because they. want control over that. JON STEWART: And they, I mean, are generally accused also. of manipulating the value of--. and the reason why I didn't name the Chinese currency. is because I can't pronounce it. CHRIS MILLER: [LAUGHS]. JON STEWART: Renminbi. I always add another M. Renminbi.

How does this, in your mind, resolve? You know, we have so many open ended conflicts that. feel like we stepped into with a lack of kind. of strategic vision, where we're. fighting these different areas on different fronts. How does this unwind? Or are we all just white knuckling it to see where--.

what incentive does China have right now to do anything other. than exploit their advantage? CHRIS MILLER: Well, I think China's going. to exploit their advantage. But I also think that if you're sitting in Xi Jinping's chair, not everything looks perfect either. You're worried about the energy shock from Hormuz. You're probably worried about your economy slowing, youth unemployment rising. You're clearly worried about your military. You just purged all your top generals. And who knows what other conspiracies are at work.

inside of the Communist Party. You're a paranoid guy. And so on this particular issue, you look pretty strong, but I think on a lot of other metrics, China doesn't look nearly as strong. as it would like to look. And Xi is clearly nervous about his domestic control, his economic position. And so he's not as strong as I think his position. in rare earths might suggest. JON STEWART: So you also obviously have. a great expertise in Russia. I want to ask you, when you think about Putin and Xi--.

you know, we were under the mindset. that if we were to engage Russia in perestroika. and détente and open up their economy, that they would be leading a more peaceful and cooperative, and that they would join, you know, the nations of the world, and we would all live in a rules-based environment. And he took that and invaded Crimea.

and then attacked Ukraine. So we clearly didn't understand the kinds. of historical grievances that were occurring there. and his vision of recreating whatever empire it is that he. thinks is their birthright. How much of that can be also applied to Xi and China? CHRIS MILLER: It seems to me like a lot. JON STEWART: OK, OK.

CHRIS MILLER: If you look at, you know, China's foreign policy, we think of just. the US-China relationship. But look at the China-Japan relationship. China's caused one of its largest trading partners. to turn increasingly anti-China because. of the rare earth dispute in 2011. and a series of territorial issues. Look at the Korea--. Korea-China relationship. Koreans have really turned against China. over the last couple of years because China has been imposing. economic sanctions on Korea. Look at the Philippines-China relationship.

They're constantly clashing in the South China Sea. with the Chinese Coast Guard and the Philippine Coast Guard. ramming each other. Look at India. China launched a small war against India and the Himalayas. in 2020 over some disputed territory. You look around China, and you find. there's a whole lot of countries. that have a bad and deteriorating. relationship with Beijing. And that's because China is trying. to rewrite all those relationships in China's favor. JON STEWART: Does that give us a strategic opening? And look, I know this is all complicated.

I mean, clearly, there was a summit. between Xi, Modi, and Putin and everybody was holding hands. So, you know, you can't tell how much of it. is the two of them, or three of them. enjoying watching the United States squander whatever. international goodwill it had. But if you were-- if you were playing the odds on all this, it sounds like that's a huge strategic opening.

for the United States. CHRIS MILLER: I think that's right. And you've seen all of these countries. take steps to build their military capabilities, to defend against China, to increasingly work together. Even if they're not working with us, it's the Philippines and Japan or Japan and India. working together to try to constrain. China's rising capabilities. And so even if we're not cooperating with them. in the ways we probably should be, they're cooperating with each other. to try to mitigate the impacts of China's foreign policy. JON STEWART: If we were to rebuild.

those types of Western alliances. that we were more accustomed to having, and then including. South Korea and the Philippines, and do. you think that would be a successful bulwark. against whatever China's ambitions are. and against whatever Putin's ambitions are? Although, he seems somewhat frozen in whatever quagmire. he's gotten himself into. CHRIS MILLER: Well, I go back to where. we were a couple of minutes ago in our conversation. You add up the US, plus Japan, plus Europe, plus India,

you've got a huge share of global GDP, a huge share of the economy, a huge amount of military power. China doesn't want all these countries working together. JON STEWART: And so that's their--. how concerned are you about the Putin and Xi summit? CHRIS MILLER: Look, these guys have been working. together closely for years. They've celebrated birthdays together. They describe each other as-- JON STEWART: Have they really? CHRIS MILLER: Yes, yes. Putin's birthday. JON STEWART: What? They're the-- because according to Donald Trump, it's really a special relationship that he has --.

what are-- is Trump-- is he trying to make us them? Is he trying to create-- you know, I read something today. that he had said that Russia, China, and the United States. should get together and end the International. Criminal Court at the Hague. CHRIS MILLER: You know, I think there are folks. in the administration who have an idea that's not crazy to say. you don't want China and Russia together, so you're better off splitting them apart. And in theory, that logic makes sense.

But the reality is that if you move closer to Russia today, Russia is still going to find China to be. its most reliable partner. And so the likelihood that we split them. apart in the short run seems, to me, to be pretty implausible. JON STEWART: And so what I don't understand about that. is he seems to be the era of trade and goodwill. that we created-- this world order over the past 80 years. was, at our behest, the idea that any of this. occurs without our patrolling of the seas, and without our trade rules, and without our dollar.

sort of being the foundation of it all. And now we're saying, no, that was exploitative of us. And so we have to become like Russia. and China, a great power that takes things. because we're great powers. Is that our plan now? CHRIS MILLER: Clearly, Trump is going. to be much more transactional in relations with allies. Now, I think, to his defense, it's true.

Were the Germans free riding on defense? Absolutely. Was it necessary for the Japanese to spend more. on defense? 100%. JON STEWART: But wasn't that-- again, that was kind of our design. We're the ones who said, you're not allowed. to have those things anymore. CHRIS MILLER: Well, I think--. I think that was the design at first. And then over the last couple of decades, a series of presidents, Democrat and Republican, have urged the Europeans to do more on defense, and they haven't done much. So I think I understand the source of Trump's frustration. But I also think that the medicine. has been just as painful as the-- as what.

we're trying to cure. JON STEWART: So do we now-- is Europe still our greatest ally? Or are they now kind of just another rival power? And maybe they are--. maybe the single largest liberal democracy bloc going. Because Trump seems much more comfortable. wanting a situation more like what Putin has in Russia. or what Xi has in China. CHRIS MILLER: You know, I think five years ago,

the answer to the question was obvious. Today, I think both in Washington and also in Europe, there are people that really question whether the word. ally makes sense. When I zoom out, though, this headline or that headline, it's easy to fix it on. You zoom out and say, what are the interests? What are the interests of these blocks? And it seems to me there's still a lot aligned. Neither the US nor Europe want a stronger Russia. that's expanding militarily. Neither wants a China that is threatening. their industrial base. And on those two core issues, I still. think that there's a lot of alignment,

despite all of the complicated and controversial. headlines that we see. JON STEWART: So in your mind, this isn't a game of Risk. where the United States of America, rather than being the head of the Allied powers, is saying, look, there's three axis powers. There's us, there's Russia, there's China. And we're going to divide up our spheres of influence. And if that hurts--. if that hurts, I don't know, the European Union.

or Great Britain, so be it. CHRIS MILLER: I think the debate. is really about what's the definition. of what's in our interest. There's the-- there's the short-term transaction, I want what I want tomorrow, and there's the long-term. let's build a relationship that will last over decades, involve mutual trust, involve mutual development. And that's what we had built in Europe. NATO was in our interest and in Europe's interest, and we built it over time. Not every single step of the way. was it in everyone's interest equally, but the net benefit was good for everyone. JON STEWART: Do you still believe in NATO.

being a viable institution for kind. of holding that alliance together. and keeping Russia at Bay? CHRIS MILLER: You know, I think that it's been a complicated 18. months, for sure. But the key question is, do the Russians think. NATO's a viable institution? And I would say they certainly haven't tested it yet. JON STEWART: Oh, that's interesting. So in your mind, they would like it not to be, but they still feel that it's got enough teeth. that they don't want to push. Would they really do--. I know this is off topic in terms of the chips and stuff,

but I'm curious. And this is your obviously an area of expertise. that you've written on quite a bit. But would Putin move beyond--. if he had the opportunity, Moldova and Poland, I mean, would he reconstitute? CHRIS MILLER: I think if the opportunity presents itself, he's going to try to maximize his power. and influence over the region. Now, that doesn't mean he's going to be reckless and dive. into a war with NATO. But if the door is open, he's going to walk through it.

JON STEWART: Do you think he's as vulnerable. as people are talking about? CHRIS MILLER: He certainly thinks he's vulnerable. He's certainly paranoid. He's certainly-- the last couple of months, there's been regular disconnections of. the mobile internet in Moscow. So you can't order an Uber or you can't use DoorDash. You can't check your email because the internet has been. shut down for smartphones. That's a sign of just how worried he is. JON STEWART: So as China and the United States battle. for the supremacy over the 21st century AI and AGI technology,

Russia is deciding to make it so you can't have an Uber? That-- it sounds like they're floundering. and they're falling much further behind. CHRIS MILLER: And Ukrainians have now. fought them to a standstill. Ukraine's a third of the population of Russia, most people would have said much, much weaker than Russia. when the war started. But now it looks like on the question of who. can win territory, the Ukrainians are just.

as strong as the Russians. JON STEWART: And in your mind-- and this is sort of, like, as a wrap up to put the whole thing--. and I so appreciate your time, but also your expertise in all. of these areas that it's very hard to get what I like. to think you're providing, which. is a nuanced picture of all these competing dynamics. that are occurring. It feels very clear, that if cooler heads prevail and we get. through these sort of turbulent waters,

it's in everybody's best interest. Look, even when we talk China and Taiwan, the idea that--. and we always say like, oh, China. will just take the militarily because they can. But as we see with countries like Iran and Ukraine, it ain't so easy. And Taiwan has certainly got the technology. to produce drones, and weapons, and all kinds of other stuff. And if as you said, the temperature on the island. is much more nationalistic than even.

what it was 20 years ago, why would China risk putting. its economic progress and technological progress at such. harm to even make that move? CHRIS MILLER: I think you're right that if you were solely. focused on economic and technological progress, you'd stay away. I think where I worry is that it's not clear. that's where Xi Jinping and the Chinese leadership. are primarily focused. Their economy has been slowing the last couple of years.

And they've let it happen because they're. thinking both about economics but also about power politics. And that's why I think it's so important that the US. and its allies present a united front against China and say, if you move on Taiwan, the cost will be catastrophic. JON STEWART: And you believe they might understand that? Or is it, as it was in the case with Putin and Ukraine, no, this is ours from 1,000 years ago. And that's-- we're going to make ourselves whole,

whatever the cost may be. CHRIS MILLER: I think if Putin had known what the cost would. be, he would have made a different decision. in February 2022. JON STEWART: Oh, wow. That's really interesting. Is he someone that is reflective enough in a way. that maybe our president is not, to--. to understand that-- to understand that mistake? CHRIS MILLER: Well, I would say he's now four years. into the war. It doesn't look like. JON STEWART: [LAUGHS].

Thank you so much for joining us. It's been absolutely fascinating. Thanks for all the insights. Chris Miller, author of Chip War, The Fight For the World's. Most Critical Technology, and obviously a historian, economic history, international relations, and a professor. at Tufts University. Thanks so much for being here. CHRIS MILLER: Thank you. [MUSIC PLAYING]. JON STEWART: All right, listen to me. This is an intervention. Stop being a control freak and doing.

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Let me tell you something about professors. BRITTANY: Tell us. JON STEWART: You know, never bring a sledgehammer. to a nuance fight. These professors, they don't want-- they. don't want nothing to do with broad statements. Every time I jump in there with like, and then you got-- you know, how does the United. States not foresee--. well, to be fair--. to be fair to the United States-- you know what? To be fair to China, to be fair to Trump--. GILLIAN: He was fair to a lot of people. JON STEWART: Right? Imagine knowing so much that you.

have to be fair to everybody. GILLIAN: I can't imagine that. BRITTANY: That is no fun. GILLIAN: I don't want to live in that world. BRITTANY: Talk shit. JON STEWART: What ever happened to knowing just a little bit--. GILLIAN: And being fair to no one. JON STEWART: Thank you. GILLIAN: I think that's still en vogue, honestly. Not knowing very much is still happening. JON STEWART: And I am on the leading. cutting edge of not knowing enough to be fair to anybody. GILLIAN: Yeah, OK. BRITTANY: It's why we love you. GILLIAN: It's hard work, but somebody's got to do it.

JON STEWART: Quick question. Who's backing down first in the--. I still can't figure out the end game on any of this shit--. Russia, China, none of it. Like, how was it in 2010-- that was-- the thing that blew. my mind the most was they talk about, well, you can't really start mining your own rare earths. You can't really do any of that stuff. because the lead time is so long. Well, in 2010, they pull the plug on rare earths in Japan.

And now it's 16 years later. If we had done something then, we. would not be in the position we're in today. GILLIAN: And worse, we have a CHIPS. Act that our current president thinks is horrible, horrible. He doesn't even want to-- we have a plan now. We have something and he hates it. JON STEWART: Well, because it was signed by autopen. GILLIAN: Yes, it was exactly. It's invalid, in fact. JON STEWART: Yeah, that's right. LAUREN: I think some of the details that have come out. about the trip make me not so sure that there is.

a plan, like the idea that she gave Trump. these, like, rose seeds and there. was no real reaction to it. It feels like a burn. No? JON STEWART: Wait. What did he give him? LAUREN: He gave him rose seeds. It just felt like, oh, did you just destroy a rose garden? Here's, like, some seeds. JON STEWART: Oh, is that what he did? BRITTANY: He was being shady. LAUREN: I don't know. Maybe I'm reading too much into it. But after the-- like, King Charles gave him a bell,

I was like, something's going on here. I think people are just making fun of him. JON STEWART: That's so fucking funny. GILLIAN: I did see that the People's Republic. Band played "YMCA.". [LAUGHTER]. Which I was like, he's so easy, you guys. Like, I--. BRITTANY: Did he dance? GILLIAN: I feel like we-- we should. be able to manipulate this man more. easily for our own purposes. LAUREN: I actually was reading some of that, like what some countries have done to make him feel at home. And I think it was Korea where they just. served him steak with ketchup.

JON STEWART: I'm telling you, man, our problem is. we're so disturbed by the cat that we can't do. the things that would-- like, the Republican Party. has no problem kind of buffering his ego. to the point where they can get some of the things. that they want. Like, all China had to do was throw. a couple of four-year-olds out in front of them. to sing a song. He's like, this is our greatest rival on this-- you know, and then the minute he shows up, they're like, these children. They're singing to me.

Whatever you need! BRITTANY: They love me. JON STEWART: I think you're right, though, that they're-- they're fucking with him. Like, I do think they're--. I think the lack of respect that they all like--. I think they are all privately enjoying this. They are enjoying seeing the United States, a country that, let's be honest, holds itself up. in a slightly arrogant fashion as a shining city on a hill. I think they're-- they're loving seeing a little.

bit of schmutz on our shirt. GILLIAN: Oh yeah, 100%. LAUREN: Or even did you see the Marco Rubio story that there. were sanctions-- like, China had. sanctions against Marco Rubio from the time he was a senator. And then, in order for him to attend this trip, they did some finagling with the transliteration. of his name to overcome the sanctions. so he could go on the trip? JON STEWART: Wait. There are sanctions against Marco Rubio to travel? LAUREN: To enter China from his time as a Senator. JON STEWART: Oh. LAUREN: So they did some tinkering with his name.

It's all hanging by nonsense. JON STEWART: It is hanging by nonsense. Do you guys hear whistling? GILLIAN: That's definitely the construction on my street. I'm very sorry. JON STEWART: Wait. So the construction workers just sit outside your window. whistling at you? GILLIAN: I don't know. I feel like it's like a leaf blower or something. The sounds have been incredible. JON STEWART: Lord knows, I have been around many construction. sites in my life. Even worked on a couple. We never had a whistle machine. GILLIAN: I'm being catcalled by 3 stories up. Yeah.

JON STEWART: All right, Brittany, what. do you got for us this week? BRITTANY: Jon, if you had to vote for one, Nixon or Trump? JON STEWART: Nixon. If only to get the EPA. GILLIAN: Yeah, OK. JON STEWART: I mean, Nixon at this point. would be considered a gay Communist. in today's Republican Party. LAUREN: Yeah. Watergate is cute now. JON STEWART: Watergate-- yeah. Like, wait a minute. You hired a couple of guys to break into a thing? That's adorable. I mean, Nixon-- and by the way, Spero Agnew--.

Spero Agnew went down because of a slush fund. It was just a little hint of a slush fund. that Nixon was using to fund other things. And I think Agnew got into like, tax trouble because of it. I'm sure I'm mixing the realities of those things. But think about that in comparison to $1.8 billion. of taxpayer money. At least I think Nixon's slush fund was donors. LAUREN: All bribes. Yeah. JON STEWART: It was all-- at least.

it was straight up bribes. LAUREN: At least it was bribes. JON STEWART: This is fucking our money. I mean, it's-- do we even have a Congress or a court? GILLIAN: Did you see that the actual amount too is 1.776? It's a little-- it's too cute. JON STEWART: It's all Orwell. It's all a fuck you troll. Everything they're doing is a fuck you troll to us. This is against the weaponization of it. and it's patriotic. They're trolling us. His entire career is a troll.

LAUREN: What do you think's going to happen with that fund? JON STEWART: Nothing. They're going to give it to people that sprayed MACE. at police officers and pretend that they're. rewarding patriotism. BRITTANY: Yeah. The list of people sent a chill up my spine. JON STEWART: By the way, it's not transparent. They don't have to tell you where they're doing it, how they're deciding it, who's getting the money, none of it.

LAUREN: It just feels like one of the more egregious things. that's happened recently. And so I guess the faith in the system. still exists somewhere in my body, because I'm like, this can't stand. Surely, there will be a hearing at least. GILLIAN: I don't know about that. LAUREN: No? JON STEWART: You've seen those hearings, right? LAUREN: Yeah, all right. JON STEWART: You know, it'll devolve into grandstanding. that gets it nothing, or they'll just. bring Pam Bondi to come back with her book of slams. to be like, you know, you've got a lot of nerve. You're from Delaware, the small--.

you know, she'll-- dude, we're--. we're in the upside down. It really-- you know what it reminds me of? You ever see those videos where like, a horde of teens. flies into, like, a CVS and just starts taking shit? LAUREN: Mm-hmm. CHRIS MILLER: Smash and grab. JON STEWART: Smash and-- and everybody's. just standing around, like, is anybody going to call somebody. or are we just going to-- like, that's what we are.

The Trump administration is a smash. and grab on the American public, on the taxpayer. It is the most corrupt, just utterly unsheathed, unleashed on us, and they are just grabbing whatever they can. and pretending that it's renumeration. for some victimhood that they faced that's all fictitious. It's nonsense.

Wild. Smash and grab. GILLIAN: It fills me with white hot rage. JON STEWART: Doesn't it. GILLIAN: It really does. It's like, this week, this news, like, I--. like Lauren said, it's like, sort of reminds you. that you still have like, a barometer because you're. just like, oh, my god. How? LAUREN: Yeah Like the pace of news, you wind up pairing it with other stories. So today, there's also the story about how many people. have dropped out of the ACA because they can't afford it,

and then stopped paying their premiums. JON STEWART: Right. Millions. Millions. LAUREN: And you're just watching. like, we're going to hand out a billion to people for fun. JON STEWART: You know how hard we. fought to get 9/11 first responders some. health care for the thing? And they always told-- and that was not much more. LAUREN: Yeah. GILLIAN: Wow. JON STEWART: And these guys just drop it down. And the thing that is stunning to me. is like, I don't think we even know who to turn to.

When you see this level of corruption. and this lack of transparency, and you really are looking. around like, I don't even--. I don't even know who to call. There's no 911 for this. LAUREN: No. JON STEWART: No one's coming to the rescue. This is all about electoral politics. These guys got to go electorally. LAUREN: Because it's totally legal. And the people that--. the people that are supposed to be. guarding us against these interests. have no responsibility. Congress-- theoretically, when people created these laws,

they thought that Congress wouldn't. allow a president to take advantage of it in this way. And instead, they bow at the altar of him. It's ridiculous. JON STEWART: That's right. And you won't be able to go to the Supreme Court. because they will find a way to twist--. if it's based on precedent that doesn't fit, they'll make it fit. If there's a precedent that says you can't do it, they'll overturn it. They will just enable his corruption in the baldest way. He is a meme coin of a president. He is a pump and dump scheme of a president.

BRITTANY: Amen. LAUREN: So long as all the right people. keep getting rich off it, they'll be fine with it. JON STEWART: That's right. BRITTANY: Guys, in an attempt to reach for some optimism--. JON STEWART: Yes! Yes! BRITTANY: Today is a big primary day. Midterms are coming up. New people, new-- oh, no? JON STEWART: [LAUGHS]. BRITTANY: No? JON STEWART: That was one of those, I'm going to reach for some optimism, and then you just--. you take the blinds and you just go, boop. Boop. LAUREN: I opened the jar and it was just some dust popping out.

JON STEWART: I feel you. What's-- what's the last one, Brittany? BRITTANY: All right, last question. Jon, what question do you always get that annoys you? JON STEWART: I mean, none of them. It's always nice to be asked questions. BRITTANY: Aw. JON STEWART: It's like-- yeah. How do you get annoyed by questions? You know, I'm not asked that many. I'm trying to think. GILLIAN: Can I take a selfie with you? Do people ask that? JON STEWART: Oh, OK. OK, I've got one. I've got one. Will you make my bagel?

[LAUGHTER]. BRITTANY: I know who asks that one. JON STEWART: Yeah, I get that at home. BRITTANY: Does he live in your house? JON STEWART: He does sometimes. That's the only one I get where I'm like, what? They're already made. BRITTANY: Roles are reversed. JON STEWART: Yeah, that's exactly it. BRITTANY: I can think of a couple for you. LAUREN: Yeah, me too. JON STEWART: Oh you got-- which questions. do I get that annoy you? BRITTANY: Oh, well, none of them annoy me. But I think the one you probably get the most often is, well, are you going to run for president?

JON STEWART: Oh, yeah. LAUREN: That was my guess. BRITTANY: How do you find hope? JON STEWART: Oh, yeah, that's it. But I never get annoyed at that. People are genuinely-- genuinely, people that ask questions are almost. always invariably polite and kind, and the interactions are--. are quite pleasant, even amongst people, quite frankly, that very clearly are not aligned with me politically. are almost always-- unless they've been drinking. and I'm out with my family. And then it gets a little tense sometimes.

[LAUGHTER]. Other than that, Brittany, how do they keep in touch with us? BRITTANY: At Twitter, we are WeeklyShowPod. Instagram Threads, TikTok, Bluesky, we. are WeeklyShowPodcast. And you can like, subscribe, and comment. on our YouTube channel, The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart. JON STEWART: Fantastic. And as always, we couldn't do it without you guys. I just want to thank our producer Brittany Mehmedovic, producer Gillian Spear, video editor. and engineer Rob Vitola, audio editor and engineer Nicole. Boyce, and our executive producers. Chris McShane and Katie Gray. And, oh, I seem to have forgotten. one person, our lead producer, Miss Lauren Walker.

Lauren-- it is Lauren's final episode. with The Weekly Show podcast. She is moving on to greener and greater--. and I just can't tell you how much I've appreciated your--. your expertise and experience in the world. of journalism and news. I have always found so just grounding-- you know, it's similar to how I feel about Professor Miller. Like, I just want to go, like, black and white, two dimensional caricature.

And you always bring a nuance, and a shading, and an experience to the conversation. that is utterly invaluable. And I thank you. LAUREN: No, thank you. Thank you for trusting me. It's been so nice shaping your really important work. It's an honor. And yeah, thanks for listening to my relentless opinions. JON STEWART: [LAUGHS]. That should be the title of the book, Relentless. Opinions by Lauren Walker.

So we appreciate it. We'll miss you. You'll stop by again for our chats. And we wish you nothing-- nothing but the best, and we know that that is what's going to happen. So thank you again. And-- and other than that, man, onward. And we-- do we have a show next week? GILLIAN: We're off next week. BRITTANY: No episode next week. We're back the following. And this is the last episode of season two for us. JON STEWART: Oh, is that the case? BRITTANY: It sure is. JON STEWART: Look at us.

We were babies. Now we're out of the terrible twos. [LAUGHTER]. And we're-- we're into the terrible threes. All right, very cool. We'll see you guys later. Bye-bye. [THEME MUSIC]. The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart. is a Comedy Central podcast. It's produced by Paramount Audio and Busboy Productions.