Emergency Podcast: Iran, Israel, & Imminent Destruction | The Tim Dillon Show #486

- Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Tim Dillon Show. We have two great reporters here. that I'm really excited to have on. We have Ryan Grim, who's returning from Drop Site News, and Jeremy Scahill, who's the author of Dirty Wars, also a great documentary. Jeremy, first to you. You've looked at a lot of different conflicts. that the United States has been involved in. What makes this unique as a. challenge?

Forget the morality of being there. We're gonna get to that in a moment, but do you think we're winning this war? And if not, why not? And why didn't George W. Bush do this? I mean, why has no other president done this? I mean, this is a seemingly a unique set of challenges. I think generals told Trump that. before we went in, yet he went in anyway. In your estimation, why is this so incredibly difficult?

- Yeah, I mean, first of all, Tim, like you, you mentioned the Bush era, and I think one of the, one of the factors here that is kind. of extraordinary is that Dick Cheney and, and the Bush team, they also were sort. of lawless gangsters when it came to like, respect. for the Constitution and basic civil liberties. and congressional procedures regarding war. But they look like, you know, sort. of constitutional law scholars compared to. what the Trump administration is doing on issues. of war powers, et cetera.

And, you know, one factor here that I think really has. to be emphasised is that the leadership. of the Democratic Party, they completely sat on their hands in. the whole buildup to this. Trump was telegraphing that it was gonna happen. They didn't have any kind of a public debate on it. The Gang of eight gets briefed by Marco Rubio. All of these guys know that this thing is imminent. and they delay a vote on the War Powers Act. Now, it wouldn't have passed anyway. Like they wouldn't, you know, the, the Democrats, enough. of them are in full support of this, that it wouldn't have actually made a.

huge difference to him. But the point of it is that that's. where an actual debate happens, where like, members. of Congress have to go on the record. And so the, the Democrats sort of cynically exploited this. because a lot of them actually want regime change in Iran. and support the agenda. But they also hope that, you know, Trump screws it up. and it becomes bad for him electorally. But on a, on a tactical level, the US is approaching this answers your question. The US administration is approaching this like it's gonna be. Venezuela, that they're gonna be able to just lop off, you know, the leadership in Iran, cut a deal.

with the number, whatever they're on now, number 10, you know, ranking guy. And then Trump's gonna sort of own the oil and go in there. Or they're talking about it sort of like Libya, where you take out Mofi. Then you have ground forces that are working with you. They've completely misread this. Iran has been building horizontal institutions since 1979. It is not just a dictatorship of one. And you kill the supreme leader, and all of a sudden the state collapses. This is a multi-decade project with cross sections.

of society, running, security, the economy. There's also a religious dedication on the part of some. of their largest security forces that is not wed. to one individual. And so I, I think what we're seeing is. that Trump's people are talking about. this like a sporting event. Certainly the US has overwhelming firepower. You know, Pete Hegseth, who's sort of drinking buddy. as defence secretary is, you know, is really braggadocious, you know, and arrogant in the way he's talking about it. The Iranians are, we were told.

that they were basically wiped out. Trump saying 60%, 64% last night. after Pete Hegseth held a press conference saying the. Iranian attacks are abating. The Iranians launched some. of their most ferocious attacks at US targets. throughout the Middle East. They did heavy bombing of Israel. What's clear is that the Iranians actually have succeeded in. targeting a number of high-end US radar systems. that are their early detection. And so you're starting to see more Iranian hits on bases.

I I think that the US death toll quite probably could rise, but the idea that you're just gonna overthrow this. government is a massive miscalculation. And if they wanna do that, they're gonna have to send in, you know, a hundred thousand plus American troops. and then it's gonna be an utter bloodbath. So what does that mean? It means, at the end of the day, the only winner here is sort of the agenda of Israel, because I don't think Netanyahu so much cares. who comes into power in Iran as much as he wants. that state shattered, he wants. to convert it into a failed state. He wants the US to bomb their conventional military.

He wants to ensure that there is no nation state. with a real military capable of serving. as a deterrent against Israel's agenda. - Ryan, what do you think. Donald Trump is there? A lot of what Jeremy said is, is sort of, is had. to be known to generals. The military is telling Donald Trump this. They're telling him it's gonna be difficult. I mean, that was even leaking out. They were saying things like, this is not a cakewalk. Why does he pull the trigger and decide to go in?

I mean, from your reporting, why do they take out the spiritual leader. of a Muslim country during Ramadan. and expect that then the entire, you know, regime is gonna unravel. and then they're going to win popular support. What pushes him into this in the 11th hour? - I think Trump has been told so many times.

that you can't do a certain thing. And then he has done that thing. and then it has gone fantastically for him. And, and I think the latest one. to Jeremy's point was Venezuela. I said, you can't, you can't just go into the country. and grab the president and his wife and take 'em back out. and not lose a, you know, a single American service member. and then just say that you run the country. that you can't do that. It's not how, it's not, not not how things are done yet.

He did that. And it, from, from his perspective, it worked out, you know, phenomenally for him. And he has said, he has said like, I'm on a roll. Like, let's go, let's, let's hit Cuba. Like, I'm feeling good. Like he's, he's it's 3:00 AM in Vegas. And like he's feeling great. and he's also like, been under enormous amounts. of pressure from Israel. And then you have the Secretary of State saying, well we were gonna, we were definitely gonna do it at some. point, no question about it.

But the reason we did it now is. because we heard that Israel was gonna do it. We knew what we would be attacked in. response if Israel did that. So we just decided we're gonna go along with Israel. and start this war now. Not, not, not considering the other option of saying, Hey, those are our weapons you're using. You know, how about you don't do that? - Yeah. It seems to me that this, this whole thing seems backwards, you know, in the sense. that we are arming Israel.

and we're providing them the, the money to do this. So how did we get to a point, and maybe Jeremy could, could jump in. How did we get to the point where the president. of Israel is sitting in the Oval Office? And this is according to the Secretary of State, it's not a conspiracy theory telling the president. of the United States, we are gonna do this with your money. and weapons, whether you like it or not. And suggesting now this is the Secretary.

of State didn't say this, but there has been reporting. and the credibility of it. You know, I think it's relatively credible that. they had discussed potentially using unconventional. or nuclear weapons at a certain point. or a certain stage in the conflict. How do we get to this point where the president. of Israel is telling the president of the United States, we're doing this with your money anyway, and you better get on board to minimise the damage. because if you don't get on board, perhaps we'll have. to use nuclear weapons.

- You know, sources we also talked to that had some degree. of access to the decision-making process leading. up to this war. We're saying that, you know, since the Venezuela operation, Tim Trump started to like walk around opining, including in like intelligence briefings that he wants. to go down in history as the president. that forever changed Iran, you know, that sort. of veed the 1979 revolution and the taking of the embassy.

And I think that he really got fluffed up by a lot of people. that, you know, you're, you're, you're gonna like experience greatness here. and that we're gonna run the deck. You know, Trump won when he was first in the White House in. that, after that 2016 election. Remember how the disdain he had for like John Bolton. and the neocons and the, and the deliberations that went into that one strike. that Trump authorised at the Baghdad airport. where they killed General Qsm Soleimani, you know, the head. of the IRGC, the most elite force in Iran. But Trump came out of like Bolton's era.

as his national security advisor denouncing him. and saying, if it was up to John Bolton, we'd be in World War iii. Well, you fast forward to Trump 2.0. and what I would call the sort of NeoCon Netanyahu wing. of the MAGA movement, which they're the most dangerous figures in the American. political scene that they kind. of took over this entire portfolio. And part of it is that Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is up to his neck in Gulf Money. He's very invested in Israel on an ideological.

and religious level. You have Miriam Adelson who, you know, Trump basically has said is, is calling shots. and is the most, he, he called her the most influential. and powerful Israeli in the world. You know, when he went to announce. that he was ending the Gaza War when it, when he spoke at the Knesset, and you have these people, they completely captured Trump on this level. I don't think Trump is an ideological guy. I think that he got fluffed up. He has a lot of business going on. He's simultaneously the president.

and he is looking out for his business, his family business, his cronies business. And I I I think these guys just convinced him, you're gonna do something great that is like, you know, building the coliseum on a foreign policy level. And the reality is they are engaged in action right now. that is going to make the world less safe. for a long time to come. It's totally, no matter what your politics are, this is totally contrary to American interest, to the basic safety of Americans in the world. to our perception as a nation state.

He twice used the false veneer of negotiating. with another country to then launch military strikes. They did it in June of last year. They said, oh, we have another negotiation. coming up days later. They do 12 days of massive bombing of Iran. They do the same thing this time. If the whole, it's a huge scandal, Tim, because what the Iranians put on the table went far beyond. what Obama was able to get in 2015 from them. It was a massive, massive series. of concessions from the Iranians on that nuclear issue.

The Iranians were talking about also having negotiations on. conventional weapons, including talking about range of ballistic missiles. That's what I was told by Iranian officials, that they actually were willing to discuss. that if the nuclear arrangement was reached. So Trump could have called it a huge win. He could have said, I, I did what Obama couldn't do, I did. what Biden couldn't do. And he could have made an actual deal. that every expert on nuclear weapons. and Iran would've said. that is an extraordinary achievement to get to the, the Iranians. To that point, it's just proof that none.

of this was actually about actual security. It wasn't about nuclear weapons. And in terms of the generals, I'm sure that, that Trump was sitting in briefings. where these guys were laying out for him, how strong some. of Iran's missile capabilities are. and the potential damage to American troops. Now there's six confirmed American military deaths thus far. - Do you believe that number, we've got. - Some, got some - Indications that the number of. - Injuries - Think that number. Do you think the number. of casualties is being accurately reported? And I'll just ca send that to both of you as a question.

Yeah, - It's, you know, it, it's a tough question. You know, having spent a lot of time around, around military guys. and military communities, it's, it's not that difficult. to cover up some deaths of special operations forces. And you can later say, well, there was a training exercise. and the families of special operations forces go. through briefings where they understand. that if their loved one gets killed on a covert operation, that there's gonna be a degree of public concealment. of the conditions under which they died.

It's much harder to do when you're talking about rank. and file soldiers because military families talk. and they know when someone's, you know, family member is, is missing or is dead. So I tend to think. that there isn't a large scale coverup of deaths. There may be some coverups, there may be some covert actions. that took place and more people died. What I think is almost certainly being covered up, 'cause we have witnesses telling us this is I think a lot. more American troops have been injured, some. of them seriously than, than the Pentagon has been willing. to acknowledge at this point.

I think the Iranians have been far more successful at. hitting American targets than anyone is. willing to talk about. I think also they've been far more successful at hitting. infrastructure inside of Israel. The Israelis have imposed sweeping censorship on. what targets have been hit. You know, we have the Qatari oil minister coming out today. and basically saying, if this thing goes on for weeks, it's gonna crash the entire global economy, that prices are gonna skyrocket, that oil. and gas prices are gonna skyrocket. It's already happening.

So what Trump is doing right now is lighting a massive fire. And I, I think if it does go on, we're gonna see the US death toll tick up. and we're gonna start to see actual American interests. set on fire by this policy, - Ryan, when you have all these Gulf states. Yeah, Tim, I think that, go on. Sorry. No, go ahead. I was gonna say, of all these Gulf states, we have our embassies there. Iran has targeted these embassies incredibly successfully. We have diplomats. and US citizens stranded in that part of the world.

and cannot get out Dubai, which is either the busiest. or one of the busiest international airports, you know, has been closed. What does this do to our relationship to those Gulf states? Do they rebuild those embassies? We haven't seemingly protected our interests in those. countries and we, and those countries have been made vulnerable by this. and they're gonna lose a lot of money with tourism.

Why wouldn't those countries just say, we want to deal. with China or someone else. We don't wanna deal with the United States when they're. gonna unilaterally launch a war with Israel. that destabilises the entire region. - Yeah, they are expressing a, a lot of outrage about this. One of the, one of the most powerful influential businessmen. in the UAE, who was a former business, who was former business partner of Trump himself, put out this long statement saying, you know, Mr.

President, your excellency who gave you the right. to do this, who gave, who authorised you. to set this region on fire, they're, they're also frustrated. by the fact that Israel gets most. of the treatment when it comes to missile defence, despite the fact that, you know, we mostly pay for those. Whereas the Gulf countries that pay the United States. by the weapons are, are getting the short end of the stick. The the way you're starting to see this play out though is,

is going to be probably very detrimental for Trump. and a lot of his friends. 'cause what he doesn't seem to have thought through is that. the US is right now is basically there, the economy is propped up. by an AI bubble slash Ponzi scheme, which is mostly supported by financing from the Gulf. You're already seeing, and I I I say this with regret. because I know that Barry Weiss is a friend of the show, and as you previous guest host here, - The closest - Her attempt to take over CNN.

and Warner Brothers, and the rest of these is backed. by billions of dollars from the Gulf. They are now saying that they might not have the money. or frankly the interest in going forward with. that takeover. So this this, yeah, you're. - Talking about the Ellison deal. It was the Ellison family that owns TikTok. Yeah. That owns CNN. That is paramount. Yeah. CBS are now buying Warner Brothers, which the Trump administration kind. of got involved in that deal.

Yeah. Because Netflix was gonna buy them. Now the Ellison family. and they're, you know, Larry Ellison is no secret. as I think the largest donor to the IDF. He's incredibly ideologically driven, not just profit driven. Who the hell wants to own CBS news? Really? You know, it's not exact Right? That's not the future of news. CBS News. Yes. But he is ideologically driven. and you are saying the fi some of the financing for, for this deal to buy Warner Brothers, which would give, you know, also him control of CNN is from the Gulf.

Like sovereign wealth funds. and investment funds in the Gulf. A dec. - Decisive. - Yeah. - Yeah. - And they're not interested anymore. - A decisive portion of financing. Yeah. - You know what the real war is, folks, your financial wellbeing. And that's why you need Stash. You don't need to overhaul your life to start investing. Just automate it with Stash. Your new Year money goals can quietly run in the background. while you focus on everything else. Stash isn't just another investing app, it's a registered investment advisor. that combines automated investing. with expert personalised guidance.

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- Paid on client endorsement, not a guarantee. or represent nor representative of all clients. More portfolios of discretionary managed accounts. and subject with additional fees. See the advisory agreement and. deposit account agreement for details. Investment advisory services offered by statute investments, LLC and SEC registered. investment advisory investing involves risk. - Is it in any part in Israel's calculation, and this is for both of you guys, that this war would not only. hopefully topple the leadership in Iran, but also serve to either weaken. or outright sever the connection. between a country like Qatar in America or the Gulf States.

Does Israel see that as a positive? I know that you know, a lot of, you know, people that. promote ultra Zionist ideas in this. country are constantly accusing Qatar. of running the country. The free press wrote an article about all the money. that Qatar has put into things like higher education. I'm sure Qatar puts money into things, but the idea that. Qatar is now incredibly sceptical.

of things the United States says. and may not be able to trust us, is that something. that Israel's excited about? Is that a good thing? And is that part of the calculation here? - Yeah, - I mean, you know, one of, - Go ahead Jeremy, - Just Ryan to. to mention one, one concrete thing. 'cause we, we seldom here kind. of the Iranian government perspective these days, you know, it's, it's, it's, it's really just kind. of the, the, the Trump show. And because there's been this multi-decade.

campaign about Iran, it's, it's very hard to actually on, on just a basic factual level, say, well, what is their actual position? What Iran has been saying, Tim, about some. of the retaliatory strikes. that it's done over the past week. is that they didn't do them. They're saying, for instance, that they have not attacked Saudi Aramco's oil refinery. They're saying that they did not strike. the British military base in Cyprus. And in fact, the British government is saying they don't.

believe that the drone that hit that base and. and destroyed a a, an, you know, a base. where American spy planes come from, that it came from Iran. They're saying it may have come from the direction. of Lebanon, which is an interesting thing. The Iranians are saying that some of the hotels. and other buildings they hit in Bahrain. or in the United Arab Emirates were housing Israeli spies. or American personnel. But, but why am I bringing this up? I'm bringing it up because what the Iranians are saying,

and, you know, take it at face. value, it should be fact checked. We should look into it. What they're saying is. that they believe Israel has engaged in some false flag. attacks in some of these Arab countries, or potentially in Azerbaijan in an attempt to try. to draw those nations into the war. as actual combatants in it. And Netanyahu is sort of gleefully talking about this, you know, Trump's people are saying, oh, and even the Arabs are now gonna start fighting. against the Iranians. Certainly Netanyahu loves to be the merchant.

of chaos when it comes. to disrupting US relationships with other countries. Certainly he wants to see Qatar weakened. He wants to see the economies, the, the economic power. of the United Arab Emirates. and Qatar, the closeness of these countries. to US institutions, and particularly to Trump thrown into turmoil. He knows that the populations in those countries don't like. what's going on right now. Yes, the, the attacks, especially when they hit hotels. or they hit infrastructure, it's enraging the,

the populations of the Arab Gulf. But on a much broader level, this is a war in service. of Israel and the populations of those countries, the, the, the anger is simmering. They understand what's happening. It's destroying their entire project was based on this idea, Tim, that the United States puts military bases in all these. Emirates, in all these kingdoms, and they have an American security guarantee. I don't think that they, in their wildest dreams, they thought that the United States was going to allow Iran.

to pummelled them the way that they have while pouring billions. of dollars into the quote unquote defence of Israel. So on one strategic level, and this cuts to your question, Tim, I do think. that Netanyahu views opportunity in this. He wants to be the merchant of chaos to try. to utterly destroy that relationship between the US. and these other countries because he views it as a threat. Trump is unpredictable. Trump is merging family business.

with the business of government. This causes some consternation for, for Netanyahu in his broader sort of project in Israel. - Ryan, do you think. that Iran hit the Saudi Aramco facility? - They, they say they didn't, and they say it so here, and their argument is this, and Jeremy interviewed the foreign, the deputy foreign minister on, on Wednesday. and asked him directly about this. And para paraphrasing him, he said, that would be insane.

because our entire economy is also. based on the oil industry. Like why, like you think we wanna start a tit for tat. where people are bombing oil fields. I frankly find that a fairly persuasive. argument at this stage. I could imagine if this war continues. to descend into chaos. and it continues to climb up the escalatory ladder that you, that Iran may eventually strike a, an oil field and, and we may strike all of their oil. - Fields.

Do you think Lebanon? I don't think that they, do you think Lebanon. struck the Saudi Rom co. - Facility? I don't think Lebanon did it. I mean, I I think their claim that Israel hit this, that Israel hit this oil facility needs. to be taken seriously. - So it's very possible. - So one, one thing just for the record. - Yeah, go, go on Jeremy. - Just to, just to put a factual thing on the record, what, what I was told by the Iranians is not. that they are against hitting oil facilities. What they're saying is we will only do. that if the United States.

and Israel start to attack our oil infrastructure, we're gonna strike back at their oil infrastructure. Sure. Because we don't view it. as simply the sovereign property of these Arab countries. We view it as facilitating. and linked to the American project. But they're saying as of now, right. That they never. - Intentionally did it. So I'm just trying to get this straight. Our ally, our closest ally, who was told us. that they were launching a war, a regime change war in Iran. with our weapons and our money also very potentially.

has attacked the oil. Saudi Aramco processing facility in another one. of our allies, Saudi Arabia. and also kind of one of their allies. Israel and Saudi Arabia have like sort. of an understanding, right? So. - This is what the Iranians are suggesting, right? And and I'm not saying I, I fully believe it, you know, it could be that they accidentally hit some of these things. It could be that they did do. it and they're trying to cover it up. Although Iran, you know, I I think.

that wouldn't really be to their advantage. It's possible that they did it. But the Saudis claim that, that it was debris from a drone that they shot down. But let, let's say for let, we should just take this seriously and investigate it. Yeah. Because if it is the case and evidence emerges, - The Saudis are - Saying that Israel false flags. - Yeah. The Saudis are saying it's debris from a drone. They shot down. - That, that was the initial statement by the Saudi. First it was Iran bombed Saudi Aramco, then the, a Saudi defence official came out.

and said this was actually debris that fell from a drone. that we had intercepted. And the Saudis. and the Iranians have had an interesting. diplomatic back and forth on this. The Saudis are not as aggressive right now in going. after the Iranians as, for instance, the Azerbaijani government is Right. And, and really, you know, sort of demand, you know, saying. that Iran did this. Iranians are denying that as well. So all, all of which is just. to say we should never just take it face value the. proclamations of the Iranian government.

- Right. - But if you think about it on a common sense. level, it doesn't benefit Iran. to further enrage the populations of these countries. because they're already, they already are, are very nervous about what's happening. So they're the who benefits from this Tim, right? Who benefits is Israel from the idea that, you know, Iran is this kind of madman, this mad dog loose, and they're just biting everyone. They're biting all their neighbours, they're biting the people who they've been in this. rapprochement with for two years.

It doesn't make sense. So that's why you have to pursue it. and say, is there any legitimacy to. what the Iranians are alleging? - So now a friend of mine who is who, who's kind. of deeply connected in that part of the world, Sheikh Carlson has reported on his show. Sheikh Tucker has reported on his show that. in the UAE two massage agents were. arrested for potentially trying. to start false flag attacks.

I don't know if you guys saw that, but it was, it did go pretty big in terms. of news. I don't know if you've looked into. - That. He said it was in Qatar. Qatar in Saudi Arabia. - Right. So is there anything. that you guys can add to that? Is that verifiable in any way? I mean, he, he is, here's what I will say about Tucker. - Yeah. - He's deeply connected in those. parts of the world. Right. I think that, you know, that's quite obvious. And he's goes there and talks to a lot of people there.

And I don't think he would come out and make that up. - So a what what, what I can add to that is they both Qar. and Cutter and KSA have Saudi Arabia have. denied that this has happened. - Okay. - We had a drop site had a source with, with Saudi Arabia that, that denied to us that it happened. Cutter Qy sources have been a little kr when it comes to, when it comes to confirming. or denying that off the record, on the record,

they're denying it also, it's the kind of thing. that you wouldn't, you wouldn't necessarily like talk about. if it did happen. - Right. - It could also, but it could also have been made up by somebody. who told it to Tucker. - Sure. - Like they're trying to sow, like, it may have been a very credible source that told it. to Tucker, but that credible source was just trying. to sow dis sow, you know, misinformation, disinformation, chaos. - Yeah. - Moments like this.

90% of what you hear turns out to be proven incorrect. You know, a year, you know, a year later. So we're, we're in that the heat at that moment where we're, there's gonna be a lot of lot flying around. But, you know, it's, you know, I, I, so I don't know. That's about, that's about what I can add to. - That. It's what are they, now that Jeremy had said. - It's another thing that needs to. continue to be investigated. - Saudi Arabia is, is not, you know, if, if for example, if Saudi Arabia genuinely believed. that Saudi Aramco was targeted by Iran,

I would imagine there'd be a massive retaliation. from Saudi Arabia. Have you seen. - That? I, I think that's an important Yeah. - You haven't seen that, right? - No, I think that's an, yeah. Yeah. And I think that's an important insight that that does go to. what Saudi Arabia believes. Because I, I think you're right. If Saudi Arabia. genuinely believed that Iran. - Yeah. - Had hit it, they, they would be reacting in a different way. - Well, 100 person. We also on the, on the Tucker Carlson, on the Tucker Carlson issue, Tim, like, you know, I know.

that I, I was in Doha. for the Doha forum when Tucker Carlson, you know, appeared there. Yeah. And it was like, you know, it was like Michael Jackson appearing at the height. of his fame somewhere. Yeah. You know, like he is a massive figure there. Yeah. He's purchased property there. - Right. - You know, and, and Tucker Carlson, he is, he is globally famous right now. - Yeah. - And deeply connected. He meets with, with the, you know, the epicentres. of power in the Gulf right now. There's no question about that. So I don't believe Tucker Carlson just made this up.

It's possible what Ryan said, somebody mentioned something to him. Maybe it was sort of like floating something, but let's remember that Israel has a decades long history. of engaging in all sorts. of covert operations in false flag operations, in assassinations, in bombings that they then try. to blame on other groups. There's a long history. of Israel doing false flag bombings. in Lebanon and elsewhere. So again, it's in the category of we need to pursue it, we need to look into it. But, you know, the idea that there's Mossad agents running.

around these countries is like, not at all a a a shocker or, or a surprise, you know, it's, it would be surprising if they weren't doing these things. The question is were they, were their agents. arrested and it's being covered up? Or was this floated to Tucker. because they wanted to achieve some purpose. that we don't quite understand right now? I don't know. Yeah. But Israel has a long. history of doing this stuff. - Right. And also, if they did arrest, if they did arrest agents, they would not like, I imagine. what it would take for them to say that publicly, like.

for allies of the United States, Saudi Arabian Qatar, to say publicly, yes, this is true. We arrested these Mossad agents. Like that would be a significant diplomatic kind of breach. Like, so the diplomatic thing to do is to deny it. So the denials are, are worth reporting, but it, it doesn't necessarily tell you a whole lot. - When you look at the time. Tim, can I. - Tell you one, one brief? - Oh, go ahead. Yes. No, go, go tell. - Me. No, I just wanna tell you 1, 1, 1, 1 story about Israel.

You know, in the 1990s, the head. of Hamas was a guy named Khalid Al. And he was, he was based in Jordan at the time, and he comes out, he, he drive, he's driving his kids. to work and then to school. And he gets out of the car with his bodyguards. And these two guys posing a as tourist come up. and they spray something in his ear. And it was a, it was a, a poison, and it sends Khalid al into a coma. And then there was a pursuit and his bodyguards. and Jordanian police end up tackling and getting the guys.

And it turns out that they were Mossad agents, the king of Jordan then. And this is a public story. People can read about this. There's been documentaries made about it. The king of Jordan then says, we are gonna cancel our treaty. with Israel. and we're going to execute these agents if. Netanyahu, he was prime minister at the time in the nineties. If Netanyahu doesn't give us the antidote. to resurrect Khalid Sal, the head. of Mossad gets on a plane from Israel flies to Jordan.

to deliver the antidote, to save Khalid Michel's life. And Hali Michel is still alive to this day. I just interviewed him, you know, some, a couple, a couple of months ago. But the, the nature of what Israel is able to do, that's one. of the most sort of famous known episodes. Israel has deep penetration throughout the Arab world. And there are many cases. where they conduct operations and they get caught. Like not here in America, where the world never. - Actually no penetration here. And that's what I'm proud of. You know, these other countries fell for it,

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and maybe, maybe it's no role, or maybe it's some role. or maybe it's, I don't know what percentage of a role it is, is controlling. politicians through things like blackmail. or coercion of some degree. Obviously, apex spends a lot of money, but then we have these files come out that show that, that Jeffrey Epstein is in contact with a lot.

of very highly placed people in. governments all over the world. But the ex-Prime minister of Israel living in his house, it comes out that an Israeli, that. I believe the Israeli government, this was reported, put a security system in Jeffrey Epstein's, New York townhouse. This is true. This is not a conspiracy. That townhouse is being frequented by some. of the wealthiest, most powerful.

and most influential people in our society as well. The man has an island and a ranch in the middle. of nowhere in New Mexico. This man is a, is a paedophile, is, is, is, is a human trafficker. He's clearly, when you look at these documents, arranging. these parties. and events where very powerful people are going from your. reporting in a very sober minded way, does that type. of control system, is that something you think Israel.

has employed or is employing in, in any way, sort. of get certain results from certain politicians? - I mean they, the Israelis have a history of doing. that sort of thing for sure. The, the link to Epstein in this case to me may. the way that it influenced Trump to try to. change the subject.

- Right. - You know, he tried the, I I think the Venezuelan operation had, you know, wasn't, wasn't an attempt to kind of turn the page on that. and get it off, but it, you know, that, that lasted like. 12 hours and the public was back to, okay, that's interesting. Let's look at, let's look through some more. of these Epstein files. So I do, I do wonder, absent the Epstein scandal itself, whether Trump, you know, has the kind of motivation.

to, to carry through with this. It has its own logic and, and motivation to it. Netanyahu said the other day. that this is something he's been yearning for for 40 years. and, and they have been working towards pressuring the. United States into it since then. And so like that, that alone, you know, has an enormous kind of gravitational pull to it. But I, I, but, and I think Trump's gonna be sorely disappointed.

because I think when the war ends, if the, you know, if the war ends with us still alive on this planet, we're going right back to those files, guy, like, we haven't forgotten about this. - Jeremy, can you speak to that. and then Jeremy also adding to that from your understanding. of someone like Jeffrey Epstein, now I'm not accusing Jared Kushner. of being a human trafficker, obviously, but when you look at what Jeffrey Epstein was doing, and you look at what Jared Kushner was doing, sort. of being a, you know, whatever you wanna call it, right?

Like a rainmaker putting all these people at the table. trying to arrange scenarios. to get certain results working sort of with government, but also outside of government. Would it be completely crazy to say that Jared Kushner. is working in an Epstein like fashion. to, to maintain certain. relationships and to build other relationships.

and to increase the likelihood. that certain outcomes happen on a global chess board? Do you see Kushner as a figure like that? Or am I overstating it? - You know, I, i I think one of the, you know, one. of the biggest scandals is what's hidden in plain sight. I think that, you know, a story like the Epstein files. and Jeffrey Epstein's relationships with all. of these ultra powerful people. and you know, Ryan has done more reporting than anyone on. the Israel connection on this. You know, it captures the imagination.

But part of why it's so damning is that it's, it's, it's indicative of something that doesn't, that. that isn't even a secret conspiracy. That what's hidden in plain sight is that the reason. that we're at war against Iran right now is. because of the way that the US political system is arranged. It's because of the sameness of policy that exists. among the elites of the Democratic party and, and the kind of most vicious elements. of the Republican party. This is a, an enormous indicator of the influence.

that Israel has over an issue as sensitive of the decision. of a state to go to war. Where you have, as you mentioned earlier, the Secretary. of State mistakenly saying the quiet part out loud that we, we did in fact go to war for Israel. And then he has to, you know, walk it back later. And then Trump has to concoct this ridiculous statement, you know, about how he, he, the, the US has been in a state. of needing to preempt Iran for 47 years, but what's what's hidden in plain sight is in a way more. damning than the Epstein files.

It's that we have a system that produces the kinds. of characters that are in power right now. That, that, that in the open you have Merriam Adelson being. able to purchase American foreign policy. and get it done, that you can have a Jared Kushner, and I think you, I think you're, you're nailing it there. He is the fixer extraordinaire right now. for the US government as a whole, because Trump is the president. and the nexus of corporate power. and government, the relationships with the Gulf countries,

the relationships with Israel, the political interference. around the world, and then the, the, the way. that they have sort of conducted a coup deta in plain sight. against the American constitution. It's like beyond Dick Cheney's wildest dreams. Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld spent their entire lives. playing by the wrong set of rules. They wanted to do this, but they made the huge mistake. of actually believing they needed to follow the rules. Trump has shattered that illusion, and he did. You don't have to read an Epstein file to see it.

It's hidden. It's, it's hidden nowhere anymore. It's just out in the open. And what do we have as an opposition? Hakeem Jeffries, Chuck Schumer. What, what, what are they doing? - Right. - You know, Trump laughs at them. Trump's running the deck on these people. - Well, are is Chuck Schumer. or Hakeem Jeffries principally opposed regime changing Iran? It doesn't feel like that. - No, no, no, no, no, no. I mean, bingo. Like, right. No, I mean, Chuck Schumer his whole life has wanted. to see his whole political career, has wanted to see this happen.

I mean, Ryan and I did a report recently, I mean, Ryan Ryan should speak to this, but we did a report that was showing. that even last June, Schumer. and other Democrats saw opportunity in the possibility. that Trump would try to go all in, in a regime change war. And I mean, Ryan can pick it up. 'cause it's kind of an amazing story. - We have just, he Schumer did the whole. Taco Trump thing Yeah. Trying to, trying to taunt Trump into the war.

And so a a bunch of anti-war groups sent Schumer a letter. saying, Hey man, like we get it, like it's fun. to score points against Trump, but let's not kind of goad him into World War ii. Let, let's, let's relax on that one. - This is one of the most positive, just to restate. for people, this is one of the most powerful democratic. senators from New York. Chuck Schumer kind. of taunting Trump like you always checking out, you're not gonna follow through on regime change in Iran. - Yeah. And so that, that letter that these groups sent.

to Schumer leads to a phone call. between a top foreign policy aide for Schumer. and one of the leaders of one of these anti-war groups. And she says to him, look, what you have to understand is. that he's under a lot of pressure from the caucus too, because there are a tonne of Democrats in the Senate. who really want to see a regime change war. They, they hate Iran, they want the military. to take out Iran, but they also know that the American people are. done with these wars. Right. And so it would be extremely damaging,

but it will also then. therefore be extremely damaging to Trump. So they're two worst enemies. The Ayatollah and Trump, you know, both take a hit. So they're like, so we're actually, he is like, and. and she said, well, Schumer, he doesn't believe that, but he's under a lot of pressure from Democrats un unnamed. Democrats who believe that. But from our reporting like that, that basically captures a lot. of the democratic lawmakers position on this, - Right?

- That they want this war. and they want Trump to be the one. that wages it and takes the hit for it. - And loses politically for it. I have heard that Stephen Miller was a huge. proponent of this war. I don't know if you've heard that, that Stephen Miller behind the scenes. - Who was - Stephen Miller. - Oh, oh, interesting. - Behind the scenes, yeah. Was a big proponent of this war. It's been reported that JD Vance, who's kind of marketed. as an isolationist, who came on my show. and said, you know, we've made a lot of mistakes by,

you know, going into these countries like Iraq. and Afghanistan and having regime change wars. It was reported that he said, if you're gonna do this, go big and go fast, I believe was the quote. Or hit hard and go fast. Any, does any of your reporting suggest any internal. conflicts in the White House? Obviously somebody like Tulsi Gabbard, which I don't think anyone listens to again, said she's,

you know, was, was more of an isolationist. JD Vance was marketed. and he marketed himself as someone who, and I, and I do believe JD Vance, a lot of what he said. has been somewhat consistent about, and he said it on my show. He came on my show and he said, we shouldn't be doing this. And yet they're doing it. So, and I mean, listen, I, I know there's a lot. of people out there that'll say that these people are. politicians and especially JD Vance believe in anything.

and that's very possible. But what is your reporting about the. dynamics in the White House? Yeah, - You know, I, the other day I was talking to Daniel Davis, who's a, you know, career military, and he was supposed to be one. of Tulsi Gabbard deputies in this administration. And then Republicans. and the Israel lobby went ballistic. because he had been a critic of the Gaza War. and had said critical things about Israel.

and there's a career decorated military officer, and he was gonna be put in the position. of presenting the Presidential Daily brief to Donald Trump. This this just happened right at the beginning. of this Trump administration. So then they withdrew his nomination. So Daniel Davis would've been, you know, a real voice. of kind of objectivity and independent thought, but also, you know, a long time military thinker. And he was saying. that he still maintains contact with some people. This was just recently I spoke to him. that he maintains contact with some people. He said, there's only like a handful of,

of sane people left in the inner circle when it comes. to anything having to do with national security. or specifically with this Iran. And that there's a vibe that anybody who sort of speaks up, it's not welcome to sort of be giving contrary views. It's that you're gonna be viewed as disloyal. It's, it's like you're in a kind. of authoritarian dictatorship. and you're like afraid. that nikker from the Democratic German republic is gonna. like oust you if you say the wrong thing. That that's, so that's totally sort of counter to the idea.

that when it comes to sensitive issues like waging war, especially this kind of war based on nonsense that, that you don't want critical voices. I mean, Tulsi Gabbard is the embodiment of what happened. to the isolationist wing. of the MAGA movement when it came to power. And Trump in this second administration, these guys are completely sidelined, as you said, it's like a joke. The other day you had another, another guy who falls into.

that isolationist category. Eldridge Elbridge Kolby, yeah. Who is Assistant Secretary of Defence. What happened to him? Yeah. So bridge. So bridge I mean, I also, I mean, you know, we, when I was, we tried to get him on the show, wouldn't come on the show podcast. So I, I interviewed him, I interviewed him years ago. He and I had a, had a had debate. This was before he was in the Trump administration, but we also agreed on a bunch of things. K Bridge, Kolby was against all this nonsense in the Middle East. - He's a China - Hawk. He comes into the. Pentagon the other day.

Yeah, he's a China hawk. And that's. where he and I were arguing about this stuff. But that's, he's known as a China hawk, but he's a very realistic, sort. of isolationist when it comes. to these forever wars and Middle East policy. He sits in front of a congressional hearing the other day, and he is explicitly on record for years. of being against a regime change war in Iran. And he gets asked about his previous comments. and he just fumbled around. He couldn't even answer it. You could play clip. after clip of Tulsi Gabbard explaining very articulately. what's wrong, these kinds of wars.

And they put her in charge. She's the director of National Intelligence. She has nothing to do with this stuff. And if she's allowed to speak publicly, oh boy, she needs. to toe the party line. That's the reality of this administration. The MAGA movement needs to understand the whole thing was. an epic sham. There is no isolationist wing of this administration. There is no America first. This is Israel first right now, and it's Trump family business first. - So what's interesting about Briggs Kby is this is a guy. who last summer, they are running hit pieces in the Politico.

on him because he is opposed to contin the, the continuing of funding of the Ukraine war. And he ha was, was sort of outspoken about that. Now I know for a fact that serious people, billionaires, media, people were calling Trump going fire this guy. We don't want him like genuine, you know? And I, and I, and I know that not for a fact, for a fact, like I wasn't in the room, but like people saying like, this guy was a thorn in the side of more.

of the neoconservative, ideologically. driven people on that end of the spectrum. They were going, this guy's gotta go. And, and now he's sitting there. and he's, he's completely changed his opinion. - Yeah. Yeah. And the only opposition that really came. internally came from the military, and particularly, you know, general Dan Cain, Trump loves. to call Raisin Cain, who,

because they had material concerns about the war because, and if, if, you know, if you're reading Drop site. or wa you know, like listening to anything. that Iran was saying in the months leading up to the war, they were saying, if you come for us, we're gonna turn this into a regional war. Right. And we have learned the lesson. of the previous conflicts that we need. to hit much harder than we hit before. Like th they were saying it out loud in English for anybody.

who wanted to listen to it. And so Kane was internally sharing these assessments, like, th this is what they're gonna do. We got, Hey man, we got a billion dollar radar. installation right here. It's radar. We can't put it underground. They could hit it. You know, we got these patriot missile. batteries, they can hit those. Like we have all of these bases that are within range. of their ballistic missiles. They can hit those. We've spent decades, you know, building up this elaborate military infrastructure to con, to basically control the Middle East. and con to control global commerce. And we're putting all that at risk over this,

over this war when the Iranians are offering you basically. everything you're asking for at the negotiating table. So the only opposition was coming from the like, people. who were like, let me just tell you like what the reality. of this situation is. But everyone else was like, no, man. Like they're gonna surrender. or you push 'em over, you'll be a historic figure. It's, it's gonna be incredible. And they, and he went with the, it's, it's gonna be beautiful. - I mean, Israel's recently signalled that outside of Iran, they feel that Turkey is their biggest threat.

Yeah. Turkey is a NATO country. This is psychotic. I mean, you know, at. what point does the United States of America. divest from this Israeli foreign policy. of attacking any. and all countries they feel might be a current. or potential threat? I mean, it's, this is straight up Bush doctrine, preemptive war, the biggest foreign policy failures. of my lifetime. that I witnessed growing up in the early two thousands.

Israel seems to have. that foreign policy position about Iran. and now about Turkey. When you hear, and I forget who said it, and you guys know more than me, but someone came out. and said, and I don't know if it was. lipid, I forget who said it, but basically somebody said, outside of Iran, we are looking at Turkey. as the biggest potential existential threat.

to our existence. Why would they come out. and say that at this point, Connor, do you know who said that? Can you look that up? Because that, that definitely was said recently. - Benny Gantz, - It might've been Benny Gantz. I'm trying to, my producer's looking at it, what exactly would they mean by that? Why telegraph that publicly in the middle. of a war with Iran? Or, or, or, or assume before? I don't, I don't understand that.

- Y you know, one, one thing. and it cuts to this issue of Turkey, et cetera. You know, one, one thing that I think we're, we're witnessing here, I I think we're on the verge of, of this being drilled into the heads. of an entire generation. of young people across the Middle East that in fact it, it is a religious war. Yeah. You know, there's, there's been great pains taken. to sort of say, this isn't about religion, it's et. but the, the message that's being sent, especially when the US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee,

who might as well be the foreign minister of Israel, the way. that he talks is, is endorsing the idea of a greater Israel. that goes from the Mediterranean all the way. to the Tigris in Euphrates rivers. and starts defending it in kind. of some bizarre theological ground. But what what what we're witnessing right now is. that you have all of these gulf monarchies. that are propped up. and defended by the presence of American military, military sites in their countries by their interwoven, interconnected relationship to the global economy,

specifically to the American economy. There isn't any semblance. of democracy in any of those countries. And, you know, their populations are bribed. and bought off to sort of be quiet. And, and maybe it's effective, maybe the propaganda. or what Iran is doing right now. Maybe it's damaging, you know, certain aspects, you know, or, or, or making people feel like, well, we should be aggressive toward Iran. But at the end of the day, in a bigger picture, the genocide in Gaza, the, the absolute obliteration.

of Gaza, the attempts to further annex the West Bank, now they just issued forced deporte e evacuation orders, displacement orders in Lebanon, clearing out hundreds. of thousands of people from the south suburbs of Beirut. The Israelis doing massive bombing there. They've set the entire region on fire. It'll take a generation, but there's gonna be blowback, Tim. And it's like the lesson of nine 11, the lesson. of the so-called War on Terror. It's like we, we step on the rake in the same place in the. yard every few cycles. And I, I think that it may seem like Israel is quote unquote.

winning right now, but a series. of events are being kicked into motion. that we don't know what's gonna happen. But what, but what is certain is that a lot of people, millions of people are being told this actually is a. religious war against you, and that's gonna come back. and bite the United States in a major way. - Ryan, the opposition leader in Israel, came out. and said, this is all of our war. This is our entire country's war. So I know that Netanyahu very rightly gets a, a tonne. of criticism and to say criticism, it's, I mean,

to put it mildly, how much. of this in your estimation is just Netanyahu, like, you know, the great man of history theory where it's like, without Netanyahu, how much of this is happening. and how much of this is just the. preferred policy. of the entire Israeli government. and without Netan, you know, if Netanyahu died tomorrow, are we looking at a major course correction in.

Israel or not. - I mean, you know, when, when it was looking like there might be some sort. of election for, you know, prime Minister, again, the, the, all, most of the candidates closest. to Netanyahu were to his right. So of the top four. or so, he was like the most kind of left wing candidate. And I think what you're seeing from the population there is. the natural product of the relationship. that the US has set up with Israel, which is, you know,

at the beginning you had a, a, a left. or a centre left when in Israel that would say, we should do coexistence with the Palestinians. We should do it, we should do two states. We're we're all here, we're all gonna be here. Let's, let's hammer this out. And then you had a right wing that was saying, why would we give anything away to these subhuman people? Let's just keep using the American military weapons and, and support that is flowing in to just continue. to lock down control of more.

and more territory. It's free money, - Right? - It's free real estate. Let's, let's use it. And so the, the, they, they were, they kept being able. to win that argument because one side. of the political calculation is arguing for some level. of compromise in order to get a sustainable coexistence. The other is saying, how about we don't compromise. and actually get more stuff? And only by taking away the American kind of military. and financial support, would you have forced.

the political conversation. to be held on reasonable grounds. What. - Is the, yeah, what is the religious element? You know, when Jeremy says this is religious war. and people are now going. to internalise this in the Middle East as a religious war, Tucker got a lot of criticism recently. for talking about Habad and talking about the third temple. and playing a, a, a a, a video of Pete Hegseth saying. that the third temple could be, you know, rebuilt in our lifetime. And I know this is sort of end times mythology.

that Christians and Jews actually share to a certain degree, which is why there's so much Christians eism in America. I've always thought of this maybe, and maybe it's just. because I'm uneducated, I thought of it more. of a secular financial motive of like trying. to build a Miami and Gaza trying. to build an AI smart city on this mass grave. and trying to have regional hegemony in the Middle East. Is there an element of this that is mystical, spiritual, whatever you wanna call it, where you do have. really influential clerics pushing certain ideas.

because they believe. that there is some spiritual element to this fight? - Oh, I, I, I, I actually think, you know, if you go back. and you, and you look at. how the Republican revolution was organised in the 1990s. when New Gingrich and the contract of America came to power, or you look at Reagan's electoral campaign in the 1980. election, at the core of it was the Republican strategists. mobilising the evangelical vote and,

and including getting large numbers of evangelicals. who were not voters at all to start voting. and supporting Republican candidates. And, and very cynically, there were the Carl ROEs. of the world who viewed that group, that section. of Americans as kind of the crazies, the loonies. And so we need to constantly be throwing red meat. to the loonies to keep them on our side. And I think that there, those dynamics still exist. and they certainly exist in this. Netanyahu's not a particularly religious guy at all,

- Right? - But he'll talk about Amalek, right? And the need to wipe them out. and cite the Torah and, you know, all that. And he'll do it when it's convenient. But I think you're, you're nailing it when you talk about. the sort of big real estate project. And what I'm referring to is this, that when you have Kushner and you have Netanyahu, although Netanyahu's is also political, it's Zionism, it's it's expansionism, it's all of those things. But it, but there's, this is big business. That's why you can have the United Arab Emirates normalising. relations with Israel. and posting pictures where they're celebrating together.

And you have all, it's all business in a way. But what I'm saying is they're erecting their condominiums. and their business projects on a mountain of corpses. of Muslims who've been killed in all of these wars. And what I'm saying is you can't do that. and expect that it's not gonna circle back around to you. So a day may come where some of these gulf monarchies, they're toppled or they're brought down. And part of the story is gonna be. what we're all witnessing right at this very moment. because the message has been sent that Israel,

it was an Israeli supremacist war that was waged. with the united by the United States, with the support tacitly and otherwise of these monarchies. - And when these gulf monarchies are toppled, you mean. by progressive secular pluralist, right? I mean, you're like, well, obviously it's gonna, but, but this is what I mean, right? You're gonna get Syria, right? You're gonna get somebody who is an ISIS who's now going. to take, so you're gonna take a country potentially. that's somewhat modernising a Qatar, Alman Jordan, whatever.

And some of these gulf monarchies would be toppled. and you would get you, they'd probably be toppled. by religious fanatics, - But, well, but let me, let me, let me answer. that in a little bit of a nuanced way. - Yeah. - We have an example, a living example of this. When the Egyptian revolution happened in 2011, when the so-called Arab spring uprisings were happened, the US backed dictatorship of Sni Bak was toppled. and there was a popular revolt. And then Egypt for the first time in decades had.

free and fair elections. And the candidate who won those elections. with the wide support, not just of religious Egyptians, but also secularists and young people, was Dr. Mohammed Morsey, who came out. of the Muslim Brotherhood movement. And he won a democratic election, even though a lot. of the people that voted for him were not members. or supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, but he, he won a sort of consensus of, of the population. And within like a year. or so, the US was backing a coup where General Abdul Fatah.

SSI took power. And Egypt's gone back to the moment. of we're not gonna have any real democracy anymore. And I think that the, the question then becomes, you know, Mo Muhammad Morrissey and Egypt was an interesting guy. because he was modern, he was extremely well educated. He under, he was a political realist. And I, and I don't think it was given a chance to even see. what does it look like to have a country. that has democratic elections, has a distinctly religious sort of identity to it, but also respects a basic secularism.

that's never really been allowed. to function in the modern era. Because the United States doesn't want that. The United States isn't actually interested in having. democracy in any of these countries. Look who Trump, Trump was asked. by Dana Bash from CNN this morning, you know, what about if a religious figure takes power in Iran? You know, 'cause Trump's saying, I have to be. involved with the picking of it. You know, Iran needs to pass a national voter ID law. real quick, right? To get Trump out of it. But Trump's saying, I have no problem with religious leaders. And he's basically saying, it. doesn't have to be a democracy. I'm fine. They don't care. They don't really care.

They want malleable states that in one way. or the other are gonna do the bidding of the United States. And they couldn't really care less what they do. to their own people unless it's convenient to the narrative. - How, how generic were the, I mean, I'm not generic. how when we're looking at footage of Iranian protests, and I'm sure I I I, I live in California for part of the, and I know a lot of people that you know are from Iran, and I know that a lot of them were you, you know, genuinely. excited when the Ayatollah fell. because, you know, they had experienced depression.

and they, you know, they have pointed out that women in Iran. to, to some degree, and again, I don't know, I'm not there, you know, how, how genuine. and widespread were those Iranian Iranian protests. that we saw, like small videos of, were some. of them engineered by outside forces, potentially Mossad, were they kind of egged on and stoked by that?

How much of the country does that represent? How powerful is that section of the country in terms. of determining the future course of Iran? Are we talking 10% of people, 30% of people? I mean, the country has 90 million people. How many of them are we talking about? Only young people? Are they only in Iran? What do you think about those Iran protests. and how organic they were?

- There were, you know, there were. some huge protests, right? Like there were enormous numbers. of people that were in the streets. It was started in a, in a market where shop owners, you know, started protesting about exchange rates. And the US has been clear, Bestin himself, the treasury secretary said publicly, you know, we deliberately engineered a, a, a currency crisis in Iran in order to spark a protest. Like that's almost a direct quote from, from our treasury secretary.

What he did is manipulated, you know, through, through sanctions and through some new sanctions policy, what, what people's savings were worth. and what you could buy, you know, with, with Iranian money. And all of a sudden the, you know, merchants were just, you know, who depend on, you know, some stable monetary system in order to be able. to buy imports and then sell 'em on the streets. They started protesting against this, which is precisely what the US wanted. The US also said that we shipped like, what, 50,000.

of Elon Musk's little satellite devices into the, into the country and otherwise have been, you know, fomenting uprising. But, but there's no question talking to Iranians like. there, there's a lot of anger. Sure. Like The country is the, the country. I mean, even setting aside your opposition. to the regime if you have it, or to the Iranian government, the economics. crisis over the last months. and years is makes daily life very difficult.

Now, ironically, most of the opposition. to the government would be, like you said, in Tehran. And that is the place that we are now, you know, bombing into the seventh century, - Right? - Seems like indiscriminate bombing around, around the, one. of the oldest and biggest cities in the world. So we're hitting, you know, the people. that would be most likely to be, to be supportive of, of. to be, to have been out in the streets protesting.

- Right. You what to add to that, Tim, because you're, you're also asking about sort of. the, the broader picture there. You know, what ended up happening, and we, you know, we, we also spoke to people. who witnessed this themselves, is. that you had these huge popular protests. and there was almost no response from the state whatsoever. In fact, the supreme leader of, of Iran, who. of course was assassinated in the opening stages. of this war, had even publicly said that the protestors need. to be listened to. And there were, there were no significant reports.

of any violence until around January 8th. So like, they start, they started in late. December, they go to January 8th. And you know what, what we know for a fact happened was. that small cells of people that were embedded within larger, peaceful demonstrations started attacking police stations. or attacking police officers. Huh. And in some cases, they start attacking mosques. Huh. And, you know, and, and so I mean, like one, one Iran interesting that I talked. to who witnessed some of this, said.

that it's like watching agitators at like a big anti-war. demonstration in the US where you've got like the people. that wanna break off and they, the revolution's gonna happen now. and let's try to set a cop car on fire. - Right? - So you start having people do this. And, and so, and the, what the Iranian government has said, and again, this is a nation state's narrative, but what the Iranian government has said is. that there were cells of people. that they believe were being supported by Mossad, and in some cases provided with smuggled in weapons. that were coordinating attacks against the government, attacks against mosques, attacks against security personnel.

And what it sounds like happened is. that there were then these gun battles that start, and I think thousands of Iranians got gunned down. And I'm, I, you know, we, I don't think we know the extent. of the death toll, but what I think is clear is. that the narrative. that it was simply the Iranian government decided. to open fire on peaceful protests is, is not true. The question is how overwhelming was the force? How many Iranians did the government kill in the process.

of trying to put down what they characterised. as terrorist rebellions? How excessive was it? How many corpses were there? We don't know that. And, and it needs to be investigated, but we have to be intellectually honest about this. The Iranian government has said that 3,100 people died. That includes e everyone, including security forces. Yeah. International human rights organisations are saying those. numbers are much, much higher. Some of the numbers also come from human rights. organisations that are connected to the National Endowment. for Democracy and have received US government funding.

But even the big ones, amnesty International Human Rights. Watch, they all have characterised it as most. of the deaths were caused. by the Iranian government opening firearm, peaceful protestors. I think that we, because these narratives have been. weaponized into broader public support initially. for some kind of quote unquote action against Iran, there needs to be an actual investigation of the events. that took place in Iran in January, but it, it, it is not even part. of the narrative anymore from the White House. Right? This isn't about we're saving the Iranian people.

Trump, Trump is, they're not even talking nuclear anymore. Now it's, we're gonna get rid. of their ballistic missile capacity. What they're actually saying, I want people. to understand this, what they're actually saying is Iran. shouldn't have any defensive capacity. It shouldn't have any ability, which any nation state worth anything has. to deter other nations from attacking it. The position right now is Iran should be like Syria, where. after Assad fell, Israel came in, they bombed the entire conventional military capacity. of Syria to make sure that whoever comes next,

whatever Arab ruler takes power, won't have a real military. In a way that's kind of the minimum that Netanyahu wants. of this game, Ryan, we, let's make it. so they can't ever be a real nation state again. - Yeah. Ryan, we spoke earlier about the role. that AI is playing in actually Coordin helping these. military coordinated attacks. Can you speak a little bit to that? This is one of the, you know, obviously the Gaza genocide is another, I think, example. of this, but this is one of the first theatres of war.

that we've seen AI have such a prominent role. - Yes. Yeah. It was reported that, that Israel in the early stages. of the bombing of Gaza was u was using AI. to pick, to pick targets. And there would be one low level person at the very end. who would just, you know, press confirm, confirm, confirm on all of those. But it, it does appear like the US is using AI in, it's, in its targeting here. The, the most absurd example, this is the one you. and I were talking about, they bombed in Tehran,

a place called Police Park. And, and first of all, it shows you that the, and it's, it has nothing to do with police. It's just called police park. It shows you that they're, that they are doing. what Iran says they're doing, which is bombing a lot. of civilian infrastructure. Police are, you know, they're are part. of the civilian infrastructure. Of course, you're trying to like keep order. They, they want, they want disorder. And so in their list of, you know, you know. that whoever produced Claude.

or somebody else of police targets, they, they added police park like so and so. We dropped a, you know, 10. or $20 million missile to blow up a, a park bench surrounded by a couple of trees. The, and, and there's a real open question. of whether the 180 plus people killed in the school, in, in mana in southern Iran came about. because it was an AI chosen target. Because there, there had, it had previously been part. of an IRGC base,

but since then it, it was broken off and there's a wall. If you went on Google Earth last month and looked, and you, and people can look this up, it was labelled. as a school literally on Google Earth, - Right? - So if they did use ai, why is the AI not. checking Google Earth before bombing the school? And if they didn't use ai, how, what are we doing? - Right? - Like, why, how are we, how are we, like, who, who's, who's checking this? - Jeremy? A lot of people are saying.

munitions are running out. A lot of people have been talking about that. A lot of people have been saying that. because we've given the Ukraine a lot of weaponry. We've provided Israel with a lot of weaponry that we have. overextended ourselves. We've de depleted our munition stockpiles. And that the idea that we could, you know, with these missile interceptors that we could defend Israel, the Gulf states, that we could, you know, that, that we could continue to have the ability. to attack Iran at the level that we need to.

Is there any credence to that claim? Do you think that we, we are kind. of running a little bit low on certain munitions. And to piggyback on that, as Israel runs low on munitions, do they consider using alternative weapons, nuclear weapons if they feel like they are losing this war? Which right now it seems to be that they are, and I don't know if that's true or not, and that could be reversed, but it does seem to be.

that they're taking heavy losses, big hits. As you said, it's censored over there. It's hard to tell. But do we have munitions to keep fighting this war? Can we defend some of our allies and partners? And if not, what happens next? - I mean, th this is such an important question. that you're asking, and it's one I'm also talking. to military experts on, and I'm also, I'm also interviewing Iranian officials, which is, you know, somewhat unusual in the. context of American media.

And here's what I would say. I think the next couple of days are gonna be very telling. what the Iranians are claiming. And this is coming also from the IRGC, their most powerful military entity. They're claiming that the munitions they've used up. until this moment that I'm speaking to you, Tim, have largely been missiles manufactured between 2010. and 2014, and that they haven't utilised some of their most modern, longer range powerful missile systems, and that they're going to begin deploying those systems.

We're gonna see if that's true. We're gonna see how powerful they are, how effective they are, because I think the Iranians are, are reaching a trigger point. where they're gonna start doing that. I think we also are gonna see the extent. to which the Thad battery systems, the, you know, the defence systems that the US put in place in, in, you know, throughout these countries, the radar systems. that the Iranians have attacked, that coordinate the Patriot. and Thad missile defence systems. The early warning detection systems seem. to be failing in some countries.

You know, we have colleagues in different Gulf countries. that are saying that sirens aren't going off now and, and things are just hitting right. And there's a lot of censorship happening. So I think the US certainly has enough bombs, they've destroyed enough of Iran's air defences to. bring in aircraft flying at lower altitude, dropping different kinds of munitions. I don't think there's much question that the US. and Israel can keep bombing. They're gonna start putting planes at risk. They have not decimated the air defences in the way that. Hegseth and others are bragging. I mean, I think it's pretty clear the Iranians have been. preparing for a long time for this.

They have mobile units. It's a mountainous terrain. It's an enormous country. So I think that the, the rubber is gonna hit the road on, on, on what narratives have been true. and which haven't over the next couple of days. We could see a scenario where it becomes really clear, really fast that a lot. of those Gulf Arab countries are extremely vulnerable. and that the, the anti missile technologies have been. severely degraded to a point. where the Iranians starts striking in a much. heavier capacity. And, and then you're gonna have enormous pressure.

already on the oil issue. They're going nuts right now, right? Because we're messing with the family. businesses all through the Middle East. But on a tactical level, the Iranians have said from the beginning, it's gonna look like we're getting waxed. It's gonna look like we're being destroyed here, but you haven't seen our most powerful systems. and we know what we're doing. We are causing them to expend all. of their energy in the opening week of this war. And then you're gonna see how vulnerable they are. And they're talking about, we're,

we're gonna see which narrative is true or which is. - False. Oh, they're talking about hypersonic. missiles, specifically what. - We're talking about hypersonic missiles. Yeah. Yep. - Can you talk about the difference between a regular. and a hypersonic missile in terms of capabilities. and damage that can be done? - I mean, 1, 1, 1 thing just to fir first to say, you know, there's been a lot of, of outrage being expressed. by Israel over Iran using cluster munitions, right? And first of all, it should be stated that neither Israel. nor Iran are party to the convention banning cluster bombs.

And the United States itself has used cluster munitions, including under Barack Obama. They used cluster bombs in Yemen. and shredded 36 people in a strike. that they said was aimed at Al-Qaeda, but they shredded a bunch of villagers in Yemen with them. But why are the Iranians using cluster bombs per personally, I'm, I'm completely against them. I've seen the effect of cluster bombs. I think it's a heinous weapon system, but the Iranians are using it as a way to try. to trigger the Iron dome. and other air defence systems so. that the larger missile itself is able to penetrate. or other missiles are able to penetrate.

And they're, they're ugly, ugly munitions. No one should ever defend the use of them. Iran though is using sort of, you know, they're using guided munitions, they are quite precise. But with the hypersonic missiles, it's much easier for them. to penetrate through the existing US. and Israeli defence systems. It doesn't mean that they work perfectly, they're just, they're a much faster missile. In fact, the Yemenis at times have used them on Israel. as well in, in, in some cases actually hitting. So what you're talking about is a much stronger blast.

You're talking about a missile that has a much greater. capacity to defeat the technology that the US. and Israel have deployed. And if some of the higher end. technology has already been used up. and they have to get replenishments in terms. of combating the ballistic missiles, you could start. to see much heavier damage take place inside of Israel. - Yeah, - But again, I wanna emphasise the Iranians have. claimed this for a long time, and we're gonna start to see if what they promised is true. We're gonna start to see that very, very soon.

Last night, very heavy bombing from the Iranians. after the US had claimed that they were sort of pausing or, or it was abating a bit. The Iranians responded by just utterly bombing throughout. the region and hitting Israel very hard. - It's unbelievable. Well, Jeremy, we know you need to get outta here. Ryan, could you stay for another five minutes, just a few more questions, because I wanna talk to you about this ship incident. Jeremy, thank you. You were the best. - All right, Tim, appreciate you. Thank you. - Very much. No, I appreciate you, Ryan.

I want you to talk briefly about this incident. that was very disturbing that I read about. regarding an Iranian ship that got torpedoed by the US. because it does just talk about how there is, I think, a misunderstanding for, from certain people as. to the brutality of war in, in, in, in the, in the sense of. how, how truly evil things that happen. during a war are, and how this is going to be seared into the minds of people.

And it's so important for people in the US to stand up. and go, yeah, this is not something that we cosign. Could you just talk about that? - Yeah, this is a dark one. And, and India is actually roiled by this right now. because it, it implicates them. So the, the Indians, they love to project. that they have hegemony and the kind of Indian ocean, and they're, they're the ones that are gonna, their navy's gonna keep the Indian ocean safe. And so toward that end, they, they host this biannual kind.

of little festival of ships. Yeah. You know, I think 70 countries, including Iran. and the United States sent ships to these two separate. but related events. And they did a live fire drill. - And when did they do this? - When they did it from, I think the February 17th to the 26th. - Gotcha. - So it, it wrapped up 48 hours. before, maybe 36 hours before the war started. - Right. - They, they, they, they paraded on land.

The US pulled out of one of the two. of these little festivals, but did participate in the other one. with the, with the Iranians. So like, we're there, like, with them, as part of the kind. of peace protocol for these events, you're only supposed. to bring enough ammunition, you know, to like, you know, fire off, you know, during, during your little events. Right. You're not supposed to come all, you know, kid it up. - Right. - In a way that could cause you. know, serious problems. Because also you're out there doing these complex.

coordinated drills, you know, you don't want something to go wrong. - Right? - And so they, they try keep it. as, as safe as possible. And so then it, you know, it starts to head back to, to Iran, and this is where we need more investigation. It appears that it was then held at a port. for something like 11 hours near Sri Lanka. - Yeah. - Or, or Sri Lankan port, which we now people are suspicious, was allowing kind. of the nuclear, this nuclear sub to catch up to it.

There, there's also the question of like, how did they find the exact location? There's some in, in India, they're speculating. that the US exploited its kind of joint intelligence network. that it has built with India to get into the Indian system. And then 'cause the Indians are, and the Iranians were, you know, they invited the Iranian ship. and then they said goodbye to the Iran ships. They knew exactly where it was. So then they, they, the nuclear sub, you know, finds the ship and torpedoes it.

And that the, the laws of war, the Geneva Convention say. that if it doesn't put your own ship at risk, you are obligated under international law to try. to save drowning sailors. Like you have to do the bare minimum also under the kind. of common sense of humanity. Like, you see somebody drowning. Yeah. It's, it's like a meme. Yeah. You see somebody drowning, like throw 'em a rope, - Right? - Like that's what, that's what we do. We, we prosecuted a Nazi at Nuremberg for not doing that.

- Right. - But in gen, often the Nazis did do it right. Which is like, we're below, we're below them at this point. So Sri Lanka's Navy had to come out and, and get there as fast as they could. And they managed to save, I think 32 people from drowning. more than 80 Iranians died in the, died in the attack. And we, and we posted the video. and a, with the caption, something like this Iranian ship thought it was. safe suckers.

You know, you're not, and so now the Indian, so this is interesting too. Yeah. The Indian government is under enormous pressure. because this is a, you know, a slap in the face to them. If you noticed yesterday, Trump lifted sanctions on Russia when it came. to selling oil to India. Remember a few months ago, the biggest thing. that Trump was worked up about was. that India was buying oil from Russia. Right. And he's, he's like, I'm gonna do 25%. sanctions for tariffs.

I'm gonna do 50% tariffs. He stop buying oil from Russia. Now it's all fine. India can buy oil from Russia. and we're lifting the sanctions on Russian oil. That to me feels like kind of blowback from this, like, right, that modi's like, I need, I, I need something here. You're, you're killing me at home. - You gotta gimme - Something. You look like cold. - How do you just - So put, now Putin will. get billions out of this. - What do you think China and Russia, what is the lens. through which they're viewing the current Iran conflict? - You know, there was this, this really interesting argument.

being made by a guy. for Barry Weiss's news outlet, Javi RedTiger. He's like, - Yeah, - He's like one. of the smartest Israeli analysts out there. And so they, they sent their, like their brightest light out there. to make the best possible case they could. That the war on Iran. that the US is waging is not actually for Israel. It's actually about China. - Right. - And he lays out this case that just, there's oil. that that get China gets from Iran. You can go, go read his case.

- Yeah. - But it, it falls apart extremely quickly. because yes, it's true that Iran exports something like 80. to 90% of its oil to China. So you're like, oh, you see that number? You're like, wow, that really involves China a lot. That makes up something like five to 15% of Chinese imports. - Right? - They have plenty of oil. that they can get from elsewhere. And also, think about it, if we replace this government, if we manage to do a regime change. and we put in a new government.

that Donald Trump says is wonderful, like finds, finds his Delcy Rodriguez, why would. that country not sell oil to China to China? Like that, that, that it would make no sense. that the Of course, yeah. They'll sell to, they'll they'll sell it to everybody. Like they'll, they'll Iran will still be a country, right? It will still produce oil. - Yeah. It would still have an economy. and it, one of their the driving, it's still gonna. - Have an economy. Unless, unless Avive is saying that what Trump really wants. to do is blockade China.

from buying oil from anybody around the world. Like is. - That, and I'm sure China would have. something to say about that. I think they might think they might. What do you think about the chances. of boots on the ground coming, not coming? - I think special. I think the chances. of special forces are getting pretty high. - Reportedly we sent Kurdish troops in already. with special forces. Yes. - And then, and then as we reported, actually yes. - You guys, yeah. - Immediately it wasn't true. Okay. So that was fascinating. Yeah. That was, that was leaked by the Israelis.

It seems that the invasion, not the invasion's going. to happen. 'cause you can, you can get that wrong. - Sure. - It's, or you know, and then it doesn't end up happening. They said thousands of Kurdish fighters have invaded Iran. and are currently, you know, fighting inside Iran. - Right. - That was the reporting from a bunch of outlets. And it cl clearly seemed to be sourced from Israel. We, we talked to all of these different Kurdish sources. and all of them are like this. No, it's not happening.

Like, not, not casting judgement on whether it should, but it, it literally is not happening about. And then, and then this Kurdish, this Iranian Kurdish base. inside Iraq was bombed, which maybe it was from Iran, who thought that the reports were true. Maybe it was from Israel who's like trying. to rile them up and say, you need to go in there. We, we don't know, but it's not happening. Like, so the, the invasion's not happening. So the US is putting enormous pressure on them to go in.

The problem is, in 1991, we, we told the Kurds. to rise up in northern Iraq. - Yeah. - They rose up and then Saddam massacred them. - It's always the Kurds. We then. - We yeah. We then supported them in Syria. - Yeah. - To go against Isis. And a couple months ago we sold them out. - Right. - So there, so the Kurds have been staying. publicly got like, alright, 1991, that's one thing. And also all of the betrayals going back hundreds of years.

But like yeah, 91 is one thing you sold us out. like two months ago. - Right, right. You know, that's insane. But you, yeah, it's unbelievable. So you. - Think we're like, but they're still, they're still calculating, like, you know, 'cause they're under a lot of pressure to do it. And, and you know, Bush. and Obama were actually pretty decent for northern Iraq, the cur Kurdish region. Yeah. So they're kind of, but they're co they're comfortable too. They're like, we, we've got our autonomy. We're happy. Like. - Yeah. Why get involved? - We're good. Like, - What do you think, you know, I, I'm hearing the Qatar is basically saying,

we wanna pull our money outta the American economy. Saudi Arabia is, you know, saying similar things. You know, people are really upset out there. I mean, this could be a massive, you know, collapse financially here. I mean, what do you, what. what is Jared Kushner doing right now? Is he calling these people on the phone going, Hey, relax. - Yeah, he's got to, 'cause he's so much of his business relies on. the Gulf economy continuing to produce oil and gas and,

and dollars and then funnelling those dollars into the grifts. that the Trump organisation, the Kushner organisation are, are operating, you know, set aside the entire AI grif. that is the US economy at this point. Also, it obvi, this should be obvious to people, but that stuff is the backbone of everything else. Like, you, you, if you, if the oil. and gas stopped coming out, we stopped making aluminium, we stopped making chlorine. - Right. - Like, you know, we stop making the copper,

like the, the basics of our economy. and then we can't make semiconductors. And then like, and that happens as it's, it's almost. as if people forget like March, 2020. Like you remember how quickly, right. Like the entire world fell apart, shut down from supply chain shocks. - Yeah. - Wasn't that long ago. It's like, so that, that is, that that is kind. of Iran's strategy, I think is to hold, is to say like, they, they cannot withstand, like they are already driven.

to absolute poverty and desperation by our sanctions. - Right. - So they're already there. So they can, they can weather this. - Final question. How, but the. - Thinking is, yeah, Dubai - Cannot. Dubai cannot. Right. Final question for you. How does this play out? What is your prediction from what you know, from. what you've seen, obviously so many things could change. I mean, you know, what do you think happens here? Does Trump say, Hey, we won even though we didn't,

and just get the hell outta there? Or does this, you know, I've seen reports. that the Pentagon is asking for money. and some true commitments in terms until September, right? Like, right. What is this? Are, are we talking about this on July 4th? - I think the, the most, the most hopeful outcome at this point would be. Trump stares into the abyss. or the actuality of a global financial crisis. that he sparked and declares victory and just stops bombing.

Right. And says, we, here's the list. of things I wanted to accomplish. You know, I obliterated their ballistic missile programme. I obliterated their nuclear weapons. I killed the ayatollah. I maybe he'll kill his son. before the end of the day is over. Right. And so we won. And, and everyone tells me that it's, it's the most incredible, you know, war of victory. that anybody has seen, - Ever seen. But the revolutionary guard still could trolls the country. - And you're right. Exactly. - Will Israel allow that to happen?

- That's, that is the, that is an interesting question. now is Israel, if, if Israel feels. that they have been sufficiently militarily. degraded, that they've Right. They don't have any ballistic missiles left. Their Tehran looks like a Gaza, that, that they can then continue to do. routine operations like this. They, you know, with Gaza's, you know, they call it mowing the lawn. - Yeah, - Yeah, yeah. And in the nineties in Iraq,

this was kind of what the west would do to Iraq. They put 'em under sanctions, impoverished it, and then every six months go bomb it. Right. And then weaken it. So when 2003 came along. and you just kind of pushed it over, then. of course it became a gigantic catastrophe. and through the occupation and everything else. But that was, that was their vision. Like Iraq was too strong in the eighties to take out, but you take a decade. of just pummeling it relentlessly you tweak it. So maybe Israel's okay with pausing. - Yeah. - And then, and then six months later they go in.

and bomb them again. And then six months after that and. - Right. - And on and on. - Well, Ryan Grim drop site news. Thank you so much. We're very grateful that you. and Jeremy came on and everybody should go. and read your stuff. You guys are great. And this, I think helped a lot of people understand the mess. that we're in, but I don't know how much hope it's given us. But that's never been the point of this show, my career. or anything I've been involved in. Ryan Grim drops that news. Thank you very much.

- Yeah, you got it. If anybody knows Trump, just tell 'em it's a beautiful win. Just take the win. - It's the win. We did it. We won. Very good. - We won. - All right, Ryan. This will be out in a few hours. Thank you. You're the best. - Thank you, sir. - Appreciate it.