Will Vladimir Putin still be Russia’s president by 2030? | The Economist

We asked you whether. you thought Vladimir Putin. would be in power in 2030. And the results, I thought, were fascinating. So 16% of you thought. “definitely not”, 47% of you. “probably not”, which means 63% of you. thought not, either probably or definitely. Ollie, were you surprised by that? Yes. Where are you in this panoply? I’m very much on the 5%. No rose-tinted spectacles on me. You definitely think Putin. will still be president in 2030? I think there's a certain amount.

of wishful thinking. going on. I think he still holds. the levers of power. And even looking at. what repression is like. in Russia, well, I would say it's a six out of ten. And, like Spinal Tap, repression goes up to 11. in Russia. I respect your view. You're much closer to it. than we are, certainly than I am, but I have to say. I hope you're wrong. I hope so, too. Ed, where are you on this? I'm in the 47%. “Probably not”. And the reason being that. I think we live in a different world. from the world of Stalin.

And I think it's actually very hard. to turn up repression to 11. I mean, it's technically possible, but very hard to sustain. I also think that Putin will find it. very difficult. not to be depicted. as someone who lost a war. And I think the Russian people. are going to be very unforgiving. And, one way or another, his power is going to be weakened. And this is why this moment’s. so interesting, because it's like a test. I'm probably more with, and that's for me.

it's quite radical to say, I'm probably in that 47%. I'm not sure he will be in power, and certainly in the same way. I think it depends. on how the war ends, but I think it's the question of. what happens next. I think there is a very good. chance that it's “probably not”. What about you Zanny? I'm asking the questions. this time. I'm also in the 47%. I think “probably not”. Russian history,

as you know much better than I do, is not kind to people. who manifestly lose wars. in the way that, relative to. what he's been saying, he has done.