Will the Iran war spread across the Middle East?

Let's imagine that is chaos in, Iran. What is. how much sort of poison does that spill around the region? How worried are you about that? I think there's every chance. we get poison spreading across the region. We've seen it in the short term. with the economic consequences. if the Strait of Hormuz were closed. We've already seen. the oil prices and gas prices are surging because of that. There's uncertainty because of Hezbollah starting to strike. Israel. There are. possibilities of retaliation against Shias in Iraq.

We're we're sending correspondents. to different parts of the region on the borders of Iran, because we're quite concerned that this will spill out. You could see refugee flows. if it gets really serious, if you have the chance of a civil war within Iran. So there's every reason. for the rest of the region to be very concerned. that this is not a quick three day war. This is potentially weeks and weeks or even longer. Greg, when I look at the region, I see I see two Middle East's. There's a there's a kind of Syria, messy. Iraq, kind of lots of conflict.

and lots of lots of ugly stuff going on. And then there's this bubble of prosperity in the Gulf. Places that market themselves to the world's. rich as havens of security, where you can just get on and. make money. Is that model under threat? It is. That is, very much the concern in the Gulf right now. On the one hand, you can say. their air defences have performed better than than. anyone would have expected, before this campaign. They haven't really been tested before,

but they've performed reasonably well. And countries in the Gulf, are still keeping basic services running. They're handling this, reasonably well. But as you say, they have thrived on this reputation as oases of stability. in a very difficult region. That, model is now under threat. And the longer. this goes on, the harder. it will be for them to sustain that reputation. So I think coming out of this, they are going to have to have some hard conversations. about whether whether that works going forward, whether they can be countries.

that try to stay on the sidelines. of conflicts in the Middle East. Try to to not get directly involved. wherever possible, rely on the United States. for a security umbrella, or whether they need to take more responsibility. for their own security. Yeah, they've got a problem, haven't they? Because if if, Iran's strategy of attacking them. works in the sense that Trump. says, right, we're stopping now, then that's a massive incentive next time. round for them to do exactly the same thing. But if it doesn't work. and the conflicts start spreading,

then they're models in trouble, too. So they're in a bit of a dilemma, Greg, aren't they? They are. But I'm struck by over the past few days, the. the unwillingness to bend to the pressure and demand. that the Trump administration and the war, there have been. some very tough statements. coming out of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, even Qatar, after the strikes. on pottery, natural gas facilities, on Monday afternoon, the spokesman for the country. Foreign Ministry went on television and said,

we need to retaliate for this. This is a country. that for a long time has enjoyed good relations with Iran. They share a natural gas field. They're on good terms. But even the countries have been pushed to a point. now where they're talking. about military action against Iran. So if the regime thought. that attacking Gulf states. would, would force them to put pressure. on the United States to end the war, so far, what seems to be happening. is that's backfiring, and it's actually angering a lot of people in the Gulf, and they're starting to talk about. whether they should get more involved.

on the side of of the United States. And obviously for Israel. The key question here is, stopping the threat from Iran. That is a prize above everything. But to the extent that the whole idea of the Abraham. Accords was founded on a kind of prosperous, a prosperity agenda, if you like, for Israel and, its Arab neighbours, is that something that you see as being under threat?

If, the mess spills out of Iran as as Adam. and I were talking about earlier. Well, that's very much now in the balance now. It's true. that, as you say this, the prosperity. agenda was something. that was supposed to be shared. by Israel and the Gulf countries. But another thing that was shared. was a fear of of of the Iranian threat. And we've seen, it, we've seen, on the surface, the diplomatic relations that, you know, Israel. and the UAE opening embassies.

and having what seems to be a warm relationship now, but what's been behind the scenes for much longer. and much more intensive. are the defence ties, the intelligence sharing, the coordination. mainly through America's CENTCOM headquarters, which are based in Qatar. but have been connected. to all the militaries in the region of, of all the information necessary. to carry out these interceptions of missiles. And when. an Emirati intercepted. missile shoots down an Iranian missile, it's working with,

various information that it's receiving. real time from sensors around. the region, from American sensors. And it's using technologies. which were developed in Israel. over decades of of missile defence. All these things have been shared by the region. So it's not just a shared prosperity agenda. It's also shared. security, network, which is now being tested. And Adam, just one last question for you on US. policy and US engagement in the Middle East. It's hasn't America.

been trying to escape. being drawn into the Middle East now. for almost as long as I can remember? Yeah. Here we are, second term president yet again, getting mired in a war in the Middle East. This the odd thing about this one. is it's entirely by choice. He wasn't forced into this. It's a it's something he's pushed himself into. He's doing it with very little popularity. Not only is he generally unpopular, but support for the specific engagement is remarkably low. If you think back to when the US invaded Iraq, 70% of Americans were in favour of that. the Afghanistan invasion, 90%.

Support for this, as we said in the poll, is 27. So why is he doing it? He's doing it, I think, because he wants to find his place in history. You talked earlier. about his statement on Saturday morning. where he thought back to the humiliation of America. Jimmy Carter, the 444 days of American diplomats being held hostage. in an embassy in Tehran. I think a lot of this is quite personal for him. He wants to leave his place in history. as the man who restored pride. And, you know, respect for America after seven presidents.

failed to do that. So it's quite personal for him, but I don't think he's thought it through. I think the dilemma he faces is, is the dilemma that in order to be that president. whose legacy is a transformation of the Middle East. and the transformation of Iran, a thorn in America's side, he needs to act on a scale and time scale. that is measured in many weeks and over a month. And that is exactly what so many of his own base. and in his own administration are worried about. When he said, you know, this is not Iraq.

I was in I served in Iraq and this is not Iraq. This is fast. This will be limited, will have clear objectives. And the entire problem is to really durably. say, I've changed everything. that will drag you into something big and long. You know what strikes me is, is this president. who could be just making money at home. and, you know, parading. and preening himself in front of the cameras. is going after one thing after another. His appetite for change. He's certainly hungry. I mean, there is another possibility.

of what he's trying to achieve here. And that's just sending a message to China, to the rest of the world that America has the wherewithal. and the willingness to do really bold things. So look at what he did in Venezuela. Look at what he's done in Iran. So this could be a deterrence.