Will Donald Trump abandon Ukraine after the midterms? | The Economist

In the last few weeks. President Trump has been. peculiarly damning. of Volodymyr Zelensky. Is this a sign of a. very clear. continued pro-Putin push? It is absolutely clear now, I suppose. it was even clear before, of just where. Trump's sympathies lie. His sympathies. lie with Putin. And I do think that. in the same way as he wants. to get Iran off the table. he wants to get the. Ukraine war off the table. so he can focus. on his relationship. with Russia,

which he believes. is important. It’s an important. money-making opportunity, not just for. the United States, but also. for members of his entourage. But also I think he feels. he can slightly prise. Russia away from China. Now, there are real limits. to how much. he can actually do that. but I think that's. part of his thinking. However, I am really struck. time and time again. when I fear that. he's about to throw Ukraine. under a bus. the domestic pressure inside. the United States does.

weigh on him. And the question. I guess I have is, once the midterms. are out of the way. does he care. about any of that? Does he just say. “I don't care. I'm going to go. ahead and abandon Ukraine”. Or does. he still feel constrained? Don't forget. we had a poll just this month. about Americans’. sympathy and 66%. of Americans. sympathised with Ukraine. and only 3% sympathised. with Russia. So abandoning. Ukraine would be really, really unpopular. David, do you think. any change. in control of the Senate. and the House.

would affect this? If you have Democrat control. of the House, and certainly if you. have it of the Senate, you’re going to have. more Democrats. presumably more sympathetic. to Ukraine. There are scenarios. where we've seen in the past. after midterms lame-duck. presidents have had Congress. override their vetoes, for example. And so there are ways. in which they can exert. a bit of pressure. I think I'm less optimistic. than you, Ed, that they're willing. to really stand up to him. And I think the thing. that is really weighing on. European minds at the moment. is that the pressure on. Ukraine is familiar,

but also there's. a new edge to it, which is that. some of the. reporting is that. the game is not just. to bring Russia. in from the cold, have all these. lucrative energy deals, but to say to Ukraine. “and you are. going to be cut in on this”. So [for] the oil and the gas, once again. Ukraine is going to be. the transit route. All of. the de-risking, all of the decoupling. of the last few years. to try and get away. from Russia's. extraordinary leverage. as the dominant energy. provider to Europe. It feels as if. one of the scenarios. is that Trump. and his business-minded envoys. are trying to rebuild that.

Russia-to-Europe pipeline. through Ukraine. and Ukraine's only. win is to be cut into that. But, of course, that leaves Ukraine. as dependent. as it used to be. And that's a really... That's a nasty new edge, which I think is worrying.