Why Ukraine’s refinery strikes backfired | The Economist

Did Ukraine make a mistake? Because actually. hitting those refineries, the global. supply of diesel goes down, that causes prices. to surge all around the world. Did Donald Trump decide. that actually. the pain wasn't being applied. to the people of Russia, it was being applied. to the people of America, and that was. hurting him politically. So did the Ukrainians. do something militarily smart, but politically dumb? They couldn't or didn't. factor in the Iran war. into those broader equations. It's also just so important. to remember. how desperate Ukraine is.

You know, they are. the weaker party, they are. a victim of a much stronger system. that's attacking them. And sometimes you can step back. a bit too far. and see a pain parity. So I don't blame Ukraine. for trying to find. particular points of pressure. You're describing so. well the dilemma for Ukraine, which is, as the underdog, the smaller party. that's fighting for its life, it's willing to punch pretty hard. in some pretty painful places. Are you worried. that the talks this week. game over for Ukraine. or what's your level of anxiety. that a bad deal could be imposed?

Not necessarily. Russia feels that it owns. the clock here. and feels that it can wait. and endure. to get the best deal possible. If that frustrates Donald Trump, post-midterms now. quite focused. probably on his legacy, keen to bank a win, he will be maybe. front-loading incentives. to Russia, to get Russia to do a deal.