Why doesn’t the UK become closer to the EU?

Let's go through the things that might. help boost growth. And one is trade. And. clearly, if Brexit was damaging for UK. growth, then some sort of tightening of. relations with the European Union would. presumably be helpful for European. growth. Why is the prime minister or why. is this country so unwilling to push. harder for a closer relationship when. that presumably would help boost the. economy? >> I think PTSD basically the Brexit for. the political system in the UK was. effectively a heart attack.

uh that the polling went wild. You had. three years of just sort of screaming at. each other in Westminster. Nobody really. wants to go back with that. But voters. have really sort of moved on. The the. idea of a closer relationship with the. EU is completely utterly uncontroversial. among the a big majority of British. British citizens and among a huge. majority of Labor voters. So politically. there simply isn't really a domestic. issue when it comes to moving closer to. the EU. So then it becomes just a much. more sort of technocratic problem of how.

you actually get there. >> And do you think when when Prime. Minister STmer talks about you know. doing things iteratively do you think. this will actually add up to much in. this term of this parliament or not? >> In short no. position in 3 years time. I think come. 2829 when Star has to appeal to this. liberal progressive block of voters that. make up his base. He's going to start. wrapping himself in an EU flag. So I. really wouldn't be surprised if those. red lines became a bit pink or even sort. of rubbed out altogether.

>> of all the manifesto sort of promises to. break. This feels like a really sensible. one. If you look at the polling, if you. look at sort of support among uh Labour. members, voters for for closer. cooperation, I I completely agree with. you. >> And there are so few policy areas where. the relatively straightforward option is. politically popular, free, and would. make the country sort of richer. That's. that's a very very powerful combo and. they don't often exist like it's the. closest thing Karma has to 50 pounds on.

on the pavement. >> and on the on the PTSD point sorry on. the PTSD point I think there's a real. still a a confl a misunderstanding of. what Brexit was why people voted Brexit. it wasn't because of the shape of. bananas and regulation and stuff like. that it was migration to in my opinion. it was largely migration points. >> so we'll come on to that in a second but. I'm just looking at Ed who's whose brows. are furrowing ever more do you do you. buy this idea from from our two Britain. colleagues. >> Well, what wor what worries me is that. that as this prize hoves into view, um.

Europe itself becomes less functional so. it becomes worthless. I mean, you know, if we have a president Bardella in 2027, not much is happening in Europe in my. view. >> I think that that's a very good point. I. mean, there could be a really. unfortunate overlap that just as PTSD. has got over and eur British British. politicians, you know, want to get much. closer, there is chaos on the other side. and they won't get much closer. Let's. talk about the the big area that reform. clearly has has made its own which is. that of immigration. And Sasha, you. focused on this closely and I wanted you.

to talk our viewers through what. actually has been going on because I. think there is quite a lot of. misunderstanding of what's actually been. happening in the UK. So maybe you could. set the scene and then we can talk about. whether this is something that will help. or hurt the prime minister. >> Okay, let me let me bring up some. charts. I'll I'll be quick, I promise. Um, so this is the big one. This is the. big one. What you see here is from 2021. you see net migration quite suddenly. really going up after a little co dip. which is where we start in 2020 and this. is a mix of things. It's partly Hong.

Kong visas and refugees from the war in. Ukraine, but it is largely what we now. call the Boris wave, which comes as. Brexit is officially implemented in. January 2021. And you have a new um new. migration rules essentially that are. quite um liberal for for non-EU um. migrants, so particularly care workers. and foreign students. And it shoots up. as you can see. I mean, this is very. very high migration numbers. If we're. talking about why people are are angry. and upset, that's really very big. Anyway, so that goes on for a few years.

and then you see it to start to come. down mostly in 24 with big drop actually. to be fair as as those kind of partly. the things I mentioned before stop but. also as migration rules tighten um. specifically on working visas um with. wage uh um limits um as well as foreign. students. Now if you go to the second. chart really quickly um what this shows. though so in general net migration goes. down but what goes up is asylum claims. and next chart please um small boat.

arrivals the next chart shows small boat. arrivals and this is the thing people. really think about and care about when. they think about migration although this. is a fairly small chunk of the first. chart it is going in the wrong direction. particularly asylum claims which are at. their highest and those are the things. people are I think very upset about and. that's underappreciated. >> the reason I think this is fascinating. is because you had this absolute surge. of the Boris wave and even though now. that's come down very much because you. have fast growing small boat arrivals. you have a sense of lack of control over.

borders and for our American viewers. this is I think very reolent of the. nature of the debate in the US which. leads me Ed to ask you whether you think. if net migration stays at these lower. levels still high frankly 200,000 a year. but much lower than they were does this. issue retain the salience it has for the. British public. [snorts]. >> I'd like to think that it begins to die. away, but I worry that migration has. become this sort of it sort of stands in. for general discontent. The government's.

not working. Uh public services aren't. good enough. It's a too long queue to. get to see your GP if you're not feeling. very well. And that um for as long as. those things don't really work, people. blame migration. But I I mean I happen. to think that if you've got a growth. agenda, you need to encourage migration, particularly high-skilled migration. And. I really worry that in trying to deal. with the the the boats, you end up. squeezing out the people who are who. would contribute most to the economy.

>> without without stopping the boats. >> Without stopping the boat. >> So So Duncan, what do you think? Because. what's a what's your pathy advice to the. government on what they should do and. what they should focus on? Should they. should they sound tough on migration? How what's your analysis. >> in terms of migration numbers? I think. they should just take take the win. So. migration numbers have come crashing. down. They've gone from about 800,000 to. about 200,000 and it happened on Star's. watch. I I will put that on a on on a. placard and march around with it and. saying look we do have control. We said. we would bring down immigration and we. have I think there is a lot of politics.

that people can do on this topic. Uh and. I think that the. I do think public opinion will shift as. well. If we do have a few years of close. to potentially net zero migration, I. think public opinion will shift very. quickly and that brings back to. something I was saying before about the. shifts on the red lines with the EU. One. of which was free movement. So in 3. years time, if you've had zero or even. sort of negative migration, I think. people would be willing to have a. discussion about free movement.