What does the war in Iran mean for Taiwan? | The Economist

I don't think that. somehow China thinks. you could invade Taiwan. while America's back. is turned in the Middle East. It's a much bigger, much more. dangerous operation. and they can't afford to lose. if they make a move. for Taiwan. So I don't think it's. an immediate threat. But that sense that. Donald Trump is. an unreliable, peevish, resentful ally, that he sees. allies as a burden, that his word. is not his bond, that America's vital interests. in the past are no guide. to what Donald Trump thinks. America's interests are, that is really corrosive. And I think.

one of the. fascinating debates. in Beijing is. can you use. what remains. of his presidency to get him. to say words. that induce. real despair in Taiwan. Perhaps in a summit meeting. in May in Beijing. between President Xi. and President Trump. There was a lot of. talk about ideally. you'd get him. to say something. that just changes. the language in a way that. fuels the sense. in Taiwan that maybe America. is a totally unreliable friend. And that, I think, survives. even the co-existing fact. they don't trust Trump. an inch. There's no sense.

that you could do a deal. for the centuries. with this man. How could you possibly? You don't trust him. But if you can. just get him to say things. that induce. despair in Taiwan. you strengthen. the forces on the island. to just go. maybe we have no hope. Ultimately, we're going. to have to cut a deal. with the mainland. That's so interesting. So currently there is this. strategic ambiguity. in America's. language over Taiwan. Maybe you could. just explain that. and give a crib sheet. for me and our viewers. of what would constitute. a significant departure. The thing that they. would like to change. is at the moment.

the official position. of the Americans is. that it doesn't support. the independence of Taiwan. They don't take a view. on whether Taiwan should. or shouldn't be. a separate country. If they could. get Donald Trump to say. that he opposes, that America opposes. Taiwan independence, the theory is that. the ruling party in Taiwan, which does favour ultimately. something a lot. like independence, would suddenly see. this giant obstacle. that your most. important partner, your most important. security guarantor, America, doesn't actually. want you to go down. that path.

There's a roadblock. placed there by Donald Trump. And there's a sense in China. that that could be quite. an important moment. to just chip away. at that Taiwanese confidence. Because there's. already tremendous distrust. and dismay. in Taiwan. about all of the. quite disobliging things. that Donald Trump. has said about Taiwan.