What does China think of Trump’s war with Iran? | The Economist

They're connoisseurs. of power. So they're very impressed. by the military AI. They're going to have. to have some serious. thinking on their side. about how far ahead. America is on that. So they're not. cheering about. what's happening. They're watching it. very carefully. On the chokeholds, one of my big fears. is that Donald Trump. is a connoisseur of. the chokeholds of his youth. He's obsessed. with oil and fossil fuels. The things that made you. powerful in the 1980s. The Chinese are looking. for the next chokehold. So several times. people said. yes, we use the control. of our rare-earth-minerals. supply routes.

last year to really induce. panic in America. and the rest of the world. But now. America is going to get us, is going to do. whatever it takes. to break that chokehold. So we need to think. of the next chokehold. They would list. pharmaceutical precursors, other chemicals. They are looking for leverage. all the time. They are connoisseurs. of power. But I think one other thing. that came up again. and again is... I've watched them, I've listened to them. tracking Trump. since the first term. when I was in Beijing. and then through into. the second term. They currently think of him. as chaotic. and difficult to deal with.

but also. a tremendous opportunity. because they say, and I do believe them. because I always... The more cynical they are, the more truthful. I think they're being, because they are exceedingly. cynical, is. he is the least. hawkish person in Washington. they know. He is more willing. to let China buy. high-end American chips, to invest in America, that his transactional, selfish, me-first instincts. are an opportunity for China. One of. the things we heard was. if this Iran war. weakens him too much, that's actually bad for us.

Because if he's really weak. in Washington, then that foreign. policy blob, the hawks. waiting in the wings, they get maybe more power. So they like. dealing with this chaotic, selfish, transactional, not very hawkish. Donald Trump. Interesting. So the. weakness of Donald Trump. would lead not to a more. traditional MAGA. Republican, but. to the sort of triumph. of the hawks. Yeah, Marco Rubio. gets more power. That's their nightmare.