The Iran deal: the biggest gamble of Trump’s second term | The Economist

The Trump administration have. put billions and billions, tens, hundreds. of billions of dollars. on the table. Potentially. Potentially, if the right thing happens, it's a massive bribe. to try and get Iran to change. its behaviour fundamentally. It's a massive gamble. Do we think Iran can be bought? Do we think Iran wants money. or does Iran want power? And in the past, it's usually wanted power. A few big things. are meant to happen immediately. So America and Iran. are extending their ceasefire.

The Strait of Hormuz. should start to reopen. within 30 days. according to the deal. and America is issuing. a waiver, allowing. Iran to export oil. It's waiving temporarily. its sanctions on Iranian oil. So the deal specifies. that Iran pledges. not to build a nuclear weapon. It pledges to. dispose of its stockpile of. highly enriched uranium. The US is offering these. financial inducements. but all of that has to be worked out. over the next 60 days. Those talks can be extended.

by mutual agreement, but there is a lot. that is left vague. in this initial MOU. that still has to be negotiated. If Iran “behaves. like a normal country”. as Vice-President Vance says, there is the promise. of incredible prosperity. Do you think that is likely to work? I think Gregg is absolutely right. to signal the obstacles. that are in the way of it working. But it has to be said. that this is a new. direction of travel. and it's coming from Donald Trump. He's put his signature on it. and you've got a response in Iran,

which I'm frankly surprised about. I was expecting that. you would have a regime. which was embittered, driven by revenge, that was going to be. continuing to. present a hostile. face to the outside world. And instead what we’ve got. is an Iran which looks. as if it’s ready to do business, that has signed on the dotted line. and does show. signs of putting economy. ahead of confrontation. with the West. It may well be. that President Trump,

this is the biggest gamble. probably of his second term, but he is the person. who can turn 180 degrees. and with great determination, try something. completely different.