Mark Rutte on NATO’s survival

Mark Rutte, Secretary General, thank you so much for joining us, a very warm welcome. Thank you so much. for having me on the programme. We're coming off the back of several. serious Russian violations of NATO. airspace, in some cases, the most egregious violations. we've seen in many years. What I wanted to ask. you is, the mood in NATO. in among allies has been fairly. I would say sort of self-congratulatory. We've done a good job, we're strong, we've put fighter aircraft. into the east, we've put air defences. into the eastern countries. There are some who will worry. that this is all very reactive,

that the Russians. have the initiative. and we are responding. to everything they are doing. are you worried about that? NATO is infinitely stronger, more strong. than Russia will ever be. I mean Russia is not bigger. than the economy of Texas, Of course with a nuclear deterrence. so in that sense. it's more than Texas. but it is not bigger than. the combined economies of the Dutch. and the Belgians. But you're right, of course, last couple of weeks. we have seen these drones in Poland. and we have seen. the MiG-31s in Estonia.

But I mean, NATO reacted. as we shoot react. I think there is one lesson. we can draw from all of this, and particularly from the drones, is that when it comes to. our anti-drone. defence we have to step up. and we are doing it. and we are doing it. And the concern is. we could have these violations. occur again and again and again. and as long as the Russians. are not posing an immediate. and direct threat. they could keep violating airspace. with impunity. And that's partly what I mean. by ceding the initiative. Are you worried about that? Because I see no sign.

there is an appetite. to shoot down these planes. if they do not pose a direct threat. But why would you shoot. down a plane which is not. posing a direct threat. I mean that would be silly. I mean we have done this. for 60, 70 years as NATO. We have worked with the Soviets. and now with the Russians. It is not new. You said Russia is losing. the war in Ukraine, NATO is strong. I think you said the Russian economy. is the size of the Dutch. and the Belgians. what you gave us right? So economic heft very limited. I also heard you a Chatham House. this summer in London at the. think tank talking where.

I think you very famously said. “if you don't get defence spending. up, learn to speak Russian”. Yes. I think there is a real tension. in these assessments. because on the one hand. Russia is weak. Russia's army is barely able. to advance in a serious way. in Ukraine, albeit the Ukrainian army. poses a very stiff defence. On the other hand, these assessments. sound almost alarmist. Yeah. You know that we... And for good reason. How do you square this circle? Is Russia a threat. or is it not a threat? It is a threat. and for two reasons. Not because the. Russian economy is strong.

and if you were Putin today. you would not be happy. You have lost one million people. dead or seriously. wounded in the war. one million? You have tried to divide NATO, US. and the European part of NATO, not successful. You try to divide NATO. and the EU, not successful. You try to capture Ukraine. and the one million people. is what you get back for that. is half a percentage or 0.75%. of Ukrainian territory. gained this year by the Russians. so very little to show for it. Now the problems are two-fold.

Problem one is that. if you have a dictator. who is willing to sacrifice. one million people, take that guy. seriously, that he is willing. to do very crazy stuff. and prepare for that. Even if you're as strong as NATO. you still have to make sure. that you have everything in the best. possible shape. to make sure you can defend yourself. against somebody like that. because the guy is really. up to very silly and crazy stuff. And secondly, Russia is investing 40% of its state. budget in defence. And even for a small economy, that is a lot of money.

and the purchasing. power of that money. of course is higher. than in the average European country. You can pay more for these rubles. than we can pay for the euros. and the dollars because of. the typical makeup. of the Russian economy. So for these two reasons. we have to make sure we are. in the best possible shape. that’s why I make all the plans. We know we have to spend. 3.5% on core defence spending. and 1.5% on defence-related. spending to make sure. that long term. we can fight the Russians. And it is not only. the Russian threat. There's also the Chinese.

who are increasingly building. up their own military. having a thousand. nuclear warheads by 2030. and have a huge navy. And we know these countries. work together. with North Korea and Iran. So for all these reasons, we need. we need to ramp up defence spending. I want to tackle. the subject of Donald Trump. and I imagine you might. be completely sick. of talking about him by now. No, I like the guy. and I think he's doing good stuff. But at the Hague summit. I think everyone understood. why you had to engage in such. a flattering approach. to the president. to play up his.

responsibility for elevating. European defence spending, for putting pressure. on people to spend on defence. and I think everyone understood that. Do you understand. the views of those who say that. it may have gone too far. in that it makes. Europe appear weak and dependent? And I'm thinking here. as well as the image of course. of the leaders crowded. around the Oval Office. compared to school children. We understand the reasons for it. but do you understand. the potential risks?

Well let's take the NATO summit. What happened to 5%. you really think we would get there. without Donald Trump? The fact that eight countries, I was in Spain in January. and this was before. Trump was inaugurated, Trump 47. And in April, they committed to the 2%. Do you think Spain, Italy, Belgium. would have committed to 2% this year. if Trump would not. have been reelected as president? of the United States? The fact that he reopened. the floodgates, paid for by allies. but still American gear. lethal and non-lethal going into Ukraine. since mid-July would that happen.

without Trump? We know that under Joe Biden. basically the money had run out. and delivery of weapons. was really also tapering away. So for all these reasons. I think he's doing. exactly the right things. And what I think. if somebody is doing. the right things. you should commend him for that. That's exactly what I'm doing. And then it's just. a question of style. and taste, whether you like the way. I do it or not, this is how I do it. because I feel it is warranted. We can really be thankful. what Trump is doing. Are there any expectations. the United States has.

do you think of its. European partners. in a conflict with China? You yourself have said that. these two wars. or potential wars. could be intimately connected, that should Xi move on Taiwan. he may ask the Russians. to conduct provocations. or attacks in Europe. Is there an expectation. in this administration. Europeans help America. in the Pacific? Well, I think they first of all. This is the mutual alliance. I think they. first of all for them. it's important of course. that we can take care. of NATO territory together. And if Russia indeed would.

in conjunction with China. act on NATO. that we make sure that we, in a devastating way. will deliver a blow. from which. he will not easily recover. So that's what we need to do. It is my absolute conviction. that it will not be a one-front war. They will probably first call. their junior partner, the famous. paper tiger in Moscow, and ask him. to attack somewhere in NATO territory. here in Europe. So we have to be prepared for that.