Is Takaichi Sanae the most powerful woman in the world? | The Economist

She seems extremely cool. Um, but tell me more  about Japan's prime minister. She she is pretty. cool. She's a mold breaker. Of course, she's  the first Japanese female prime minister. She is. uh not a part of the old party machinery  in the sense that she comes from a very. ordinary middle-class background. Whereas many  of Japan's former prime ministers have uh been. the the the sons always the sons of former prime  ministers or former ministers. Um she is a sort. of refreshing character. She communicates well on  social media. She plays the drums and she was in.

a she was in a heavy metal uh drummer the drummer  in a heavy metal band at university and she still. picks up the sticks quite often. Um she rides a  motorbike or has done probably doesn't so much. anymore. Uh she she's she's generally very cool.  She has like Margaret Thatcher an iconic handbag. which has been selling out across Japan. She  she's altogether a rather refreshing figure. Um though not especially young. She's 62, which is  kind of average for for Japanese PMs. But but no, a very interesting new figure indeed. And she's  won what is an extraordinarily large majority,

the biggest majority that her party, the LDP has  had. The the biggest majority that that any party. has had since um the end of the Second World  War. Um nobody's had a mandate like this. So, it's incredibly powerful and unprecedented.  So, Noah, what was it like or what is it like. in Tokyo? Well, there was a lot of uncertainty  heading into this election. It was a much more. fluid moment in Japanese politics than we've  had for a long time. And even on election day, nobody really knew how things were going to turn  out. Not least because there was a giant snowstorm.

that that hit Japan on election day and and made  it very hard to get to polling places. Even Tokyo, which is is rarely snowy, uh was covered in in  in white. And when the results started to become. clear, the scale, the historic scale of this  victory, it felt a bit like the small earthquakes. that are more common here, a bit like the ground  kind of shifting under under one's feet. Um, and and it was, I think, a really stunning result  even for people inside the LDP. Perhaps you can. give us a quick primer of what indeed are  her big promises. Yeah. So, I think her her.

slogan essentially is that she wants to make Japan  stronger and she wants to make Japan prosperous. hard to argue with either either element of those,  but you know, the stronger piece is essentially. about beefing up Japan's armed forces, building  out the the the security state. Um, the prosperous. piece gets a bit trickier when you you get  into the details of of of how she plans to make. that happen. Um, but these are again, these are  long-standing goals that the LDP has had. I mean, I think it's worth remembering that for all of her  all of her mold breaking style, she is a 30-year.

veteran of the 70-year ruling party in Japan.  She's very much a creature of the establishment. She's not an outsider trying to tear down the  establishment. She's the one the LDP turned to. to really fend off the challenge from the kind  of populist disruptors uh who who were starting. to make inroads heading into this election. Let's  start with foreign policy and defense where make. you know making Japan strong is is the goal. A big  part is defense and a very clear defense buildup.

Henry, how much does she want to increase defense  spending? How big is this? where it's about going. to a 2% of GDP target more quickly and uh it's  it's significant because uh Japan historically. has not been a country that spends on defense  post second world war it's actually in their. constitution uh that they're not supposed to have  an army for aggressive purposes of course they do. have an army for defensive purposes but they've  been firmly within the security umbrella of the. US and in this new world uh with more geopolitical  tension and a fraying commit ment of America to.

its alliances. Uh Japan needs to build out its  military strength significantly. But it is only. 2% of GDP. It is. And that this is interesting.  She'd already reached the 2% thing when she became. um prime minister in October. She put forward a  supplementary budget that lifted defense spending. in the current fiscal year, which isn't quite  over yet, to the 2%. The question is what happens. next? Because 2% is not very much. At NATO, we've  long replaced that target with a much higher one.

But before we do that, let's Noah, put all  of this into some historical context for us. As as Henry said, Japan's contribution prevent  constitution prevents it from having an army, although it has what what is it called? It's  called self defense forces. But how how how is. this debate going down in Tokyo? How much is are  people behind her in this push and how how far. do you think it will go? Yeah, I think there's  been a kind of a gradual evolution that's been.

accelerating. So, as as Henry mentioned, Japan  after the the Second World War really kind of. sheltered under the American security umbrella,  started to to focus more on on its own economy and. on on economic relations with others in Asia. But  that began to change in a big way in in the 2010s, I think, as as Japan started to recognize that  China was rising and and wouldn't be benevolent. and at the same time that America is increasingly  unreliable. And I think this is one area where. Japan is a a kind of a harbinger on kind of on the  front lines of of geopolitical trends that have.

come to shape the world since. And Abbe Shinszo,  who it should should be noted was is is sort of. Takayichi's mentor, her political uh godfather  as it were, he set out a new course for Japan, a new strategy to to deal with these two  forces, strengthen Japan's own defenses, try to keep America committed to Asia and at the  same time kind of do more with other partners. across the region. Um, but the pace of change  was always gradual and and you know it started. to accelerate more after the war in Ukraine, the  full-scale invasion of the war of Ukraine in in.

2022. I think that really shook people here in  Japan. Um, but it still hasn't been fast enough. to match the scale of the challenges that Japan  faces. And and what Takaichi is doing is basically. saying this road map that my mentor Abbe put us on  is it's it's the right one. It's the right course, but we just need to put the the pedal to the  metal. um you know we need to to hop on the. on the motorcycle and we need a new target now I  think you know but we haven't heard that from her. yet I mean the context for me is is China if you  look at this the rate at which China is building.

its navy expanding its air force everything all  manner um you know a sort of gentle abbey like. increase in in awareness is really not keeping  up with the two big things are changing right. China China's aggressive rearming and and  its you know more aggressive general position. And of course, as Noah said, the US, let's  take them in turn. Let's start with China. because even in her her four months before  she got this extraordinarily large majority, she'd already had a fairly testy and consequential  interaction with China. Remind us uh exactly what.

happened there, Chris. Yes. Well, she made a  comment that caused a lot of concern in China. um you know unjustifiably I would say but she she  simply noted that in the event of a Chinese uh. attack on Taiwan that Japanese essential interests  would be affected and and that suggested to [ __ ]. to China and was sort of considered by the Chinese  to to to mean that Japan might intervene. Now, she didn't say that it would, but but the position  has always been that there was be strategic.

ambiguity that neither America nor nor Japan  are committed to defend Taiwan. China had a huge. reaction. A Chinese console general said stick  out her dirty neck, she'd be chopped off and it. was very kind of hostile and aggressive land. And  now Chinese tourists don't come to Japan anymore, which has been very problematic because that  was a big part of the tourism industry which. has grown quite faster. Noah, do you think that  is uh now seen as being a a mistake uh or is she. going to double down on that? What do you expect  from her in terms of how she behaves towards.

Xi Jinping? Yeah, I I think what she said in the  diet initially was a mistake. It wasn't she didn't. intend to cross that line. Uh which Japanese  prime ministers haven't crossed in the past. Um but she's not going to walk back from it now.  Um it's it's become a position that she has is is. standing on. It's it's essentially saying out loud  what everyone already understood. Um, and it has, I think, won her, you know, some some support from  the public. It's there's been a bit of a rally.

around the flag effect. It's helped to to kind of  consolidate her image as a as a tough leader who's. willing to stand up to Japan's uh Japan's hostile  neighbors and and that that sense of security is. part of what voters want. So, what do you think  will be the practical consequences for the. Japanese relationship? I mean, do you think that  these these restrictions on tourists are going to. continue? Is this going to be a very hostile, Tety  relationship? Well, to my mind, it just shows you. how difficult this whole process is going to be.  I mean, um, one of the things that Takaji wants.

to do is to change the constitution. That's harder  than passing a law. She still needs a two-thirds. majority in both chambers for that. But if it's  not going to happen now um you know with this. prime minister voted in as Noah said on a security  ticket with this kind of majority if it's going to. happen now when when is it going to happen and  China is going to be very very cross about that.