Is China the new superpower?

First of all, let's talk about the. military side because I think this is. something that not enough people think. about. You know, the PLA, I think, in. terms of numbers of soldiers is by far. the biggest army in the world, but it. hasn't been in a war since what, 1979. Um, it's constantly being purged as far. as I can tell. You know, how effective, Ed, do you think the PLA is as a. fighting force? And is it any match for. the US? >> I think it's a serious force. Um, it's. got the largest navy easily. It's got. [clears throat] far superior ship. building capabilities. It's got advanced.

weapons, hypersonic missiles. Its drone. capabilities is incredible. And I think. to go back to what we were saying. earlier, its manufacturing sort of surge. capacity in the in war just out. outclasses any other country including. the United States. So the PLA is a. serious serious contender. But I still. think America's armed forces would would. are stronger. But but but so P is not a. vulnerability for China. a growing. strength of China's but doesn't quite. yet I think match.

>> you share that David because I think. there there are amongst security. professionals some concerns that. actually the PLA may not be as as strong. as as Ed's description suggests. So, does it matter if if Xiinping's dream is. to have a war over Taiwan this year, which I don't think we believe, the fact. they've just purged huge numbers of. generals, uh, including the latest wave, very, very senior level. Is that a. problem? Of course, it is. Is it a. massive frustration for the leadership. that corruption was just so endemic that.

you couldn't do these surgical cuts to. take out the corrupt generals? It turns. out once you start, you just find that. the entire chain of command has been. corrupted to the core. That's a massive. frustration. But I fear I do also agree. with Ed that you know scale is its own. sort of source of strength. And if you. read some of the stuff that's being put. out by smart security scholars uh in. America they're they're writing you know. the number of missiles the number of uh. you know high-end machines being put out. just the ammunition factories running at. full speed. Some of the latest. hypersonic weapons that the Chinese have.

put out with these multiple warheads. that fly in their own different. directions. The Pentagon doesn't even. know how they work. They don't, not only. do they not have them, they don't know. how the Chinese are doing it. And so, you know, if it was a fight over Hawaii. next to America in America's backyard, then the American military is al is or. inspiring. But China's not interested in. fighting over Hawaii. It's interested in. its backyard. And that, I think, is not. just stuff, but also will. >> I mean, remember that Bill Clinton. sailed an aircraft carrier, I think it. was, between Taiwan and the mainland in.

1990. >> It was the missiles 1999. It was the It. was near Taiwan. I mean, I think America. would do that again if it had to, but. it'd be very very very nervous about it. So, this is a this is a serious rival. That's my point. It's a serious rival. And. >> it's it's it's a serious rival. You. think that America is still ahead. militarily, but it's a serious rival. determined to catch up. So, that is less. of a comfort to those people who would. like to, you know, consider that America. will stay top dog. So, let's let's notch. up a sort of tiny bit of comfort from.

that. Not too much. What about China's. economy? Because as we alluded to. earlier in this conversation, you know, China's domestic demand is weak. China's. had an ongoing property bust for a very. long time. Uh it's got endemic deflation. as you said. You know, the economics. training that is still somewhere at the. back of my mind says that this is a bit. of a toxic cocktail and that China's. economy is therefore not a kind of. worldbeating economy. >> So I think domestically, you know, their. debt levels are terrifying. uh they do. have this you know 38 months of of.

factory gate deflation now but it comes. back to that do you see this as a purely. economic question or do you see it as. kind of arming yourself as a fortress. China against a hostile world in which. case you know you know you go back into. Chinese history I remember traveling to. cities where you know in the cold war. chairman Mao was so convinced that the. Americans and the Soviets might invade. China that he moved whole factories. under mountain sides thousands of miles. away from the coast economically it was. crazy if you worked and dug those. factories out. It was very very. dangerous. But for him, it was worth it.

for national security. And so they have. different priorities. And for them, the. leverage that they now enjoy, the. control that they now enjoy, if it gives. them sort of comprehensive national. strength, they will take some of that. economic pain. The question the question I have is, you. know, I've learned from what's happened. in the west over the last decade that if. you don't produce e enough economic. growth and make people feel that they're. happy, they kind of lose faith and get. very cross with the political system. they have. China's had as 30 years as we.

saw of of absolutely incredible 40 years. of blistering growth which has made. everybody better off. Now you're in a. world suddenly where you know youth. unemployment's up at what 18%. um. children are no longer sure they're go. their their own children may be. wealthier than them. Jobs aren't around. for graduates. H how long is it before. this starts to create absolutely genuine. discontent? >> We felt that very palpably in Beijing. I. remember those meetings with students. that you used to organize and over the. years they've become sort of glumber and. glumber because their parents you know.

living standards were completely. transformed and now these these young. people see see much less you know growth. before them. Alice, I mean, you you you. follow social media very carefully. You. you you you you kind of live this. Um to. do you think that Ed is right or. actually is David right that the regime. can kind of continue to push this model. forward or do you think there'll be. growing protest. there? There is actually growing protest. in China, but I don't think it. constitutes a real threat to the regime.

in any way. And because when when you. think about China, I mean I mean when. you talk about western countries where. you know people are uh people grow. discontent if the economy is not doing. well that's because they have the space. to speak about it and and do something. about it. In China I mean one of the. stories I did last year was following. Chinese migrants who were crossing the. Darian gap trying to like desperately. trying to leave China and go to get to. go to America. Yeah. And some of them, yes, they were they had these um. illusions about well, they had these.

ideals about freedom and democracy and. so on, but a lot of them um they were. economic migrants who were saying, you. know, we can't get by in China anymore. or we're doing more and more work for. lower and lower wages and we will risk. our lives and cross this Latin American. jungle so that we have a chance. Um. >> it was a great story and and it was a. great podcast series. What was it? >> Um it was called Climbers. Yeah, >> Climbers. Really excellent. I recommend. you go back and try and listen to But I. would make the point that you know these. people they're they were not going to. organize some kind of you know mass.

movement um to protest against. >> we actually have a chart about the the. number of of dissented and the number of. protests and this is put together by. freedom house it suggests that. protesters rising. >> I mean it's very hard to track descent. in China right because it's a country. with so much surveillance and censorship. and so the best that this uh group could. do China descent monitor is basically. look at instances where people are are. trying to gather to go on some kind of. strike to to demand something. Typically. um typically it's economic economically.

driven protest. So it's, you know, they're protesting unpaid wages or um. houses that people bought that have just. been left unfinished. Um and they they. will monitor the number and and the. number is going up. >> David, you don't think that we've this. is a sign of any incipient serious. descent? >> So, you know, I wrote a whole bunch of. pieces before I left last year, but my. conclusion was that China is very fed up. and we should take that seriously, but. it's not in a revolutionary mood. Now. the caveat, the huge asterisk is every. foreigner who makes giant predictions. about China risks being proved wrong. because it's a you know country it's.

hard to kind of monitor. But my sense is. that uh people are fed up. They are. worried about kind of their kid won't. get the graduate job that they want. But. actually in some ways maybe the thing. that China doesn't control at all is the. outside world's willingness to be an. infinite market for China's products. And so I think they probably do. unfortunately have they have built at. incredible cost and with tremendous. effort a repressive machine to clamp. down on this stuff. And there are always. small protests in China which take them. seriously. They matter but they don't.

the regime's built a machine for them. but their economy requires the outside. world to buy their stuff and that's the. bit that I don't know they control. >> So that is weak and they're also aging. for us very briefly because but there's. al I mean I don't think it's binary. It's not as if either things are going. absolutely gang busters or you've got a. revolution. It's it's sort of sense of. optimismal animal spirits. Are people. content? Are people investing in the. future? And my sense of of the. discontent is that it actually just. dampens all this down and it makes the. problems worse. So that let's say there. is a collapse of foreign demand.

correcting now years of deflation. Now. that people have lost confidence, it. gets harder and harder to turn turn that. around. So kind of my worry is more kind. of in the middle. >> Putting all of this together, will China. be the new superpower? Quite simply, yes. or no? Um yes, China is is already I think a. superpower, but um that doesn't mean. that people inside China are are. enjoying all the benefits you would. think come with superpower status. Ed. >> Um yes, but I think superpower is now a.

sort of cold war term that doesn't. actually convey what what China will be. China's going to be a big regional power. that bosses everybody around, but it's. not going to be a superpower in the. sense that America was a superpower. during most of our lives. So it's not. going to boss the US around. >> Well, it'll boss people around when it. can, including the US, but it's not. going to sort of permeate all our lives. in the way that the US has. >> David, >> actually, I'm a bit Yeah. So, I think. that China will be internally. potentially stagnant. There will be. fewer ladders of opportunity. It be a. less happy country. The Chinese dream. will not be kind of achieved, but they.

will dominate certain technologies and. they will have the geopolitical strength. that in we will not mess with China.