How strong is Iran’s regime?

So Iran had this strategy for defense. strategy of u recruiting militias. working with Assad in Syria, Hezbollah. in Lebanon and this was undone has been. undone by by Israel. The the question I. have is is that strategy judged to have. been a failure inside Iran. It looks a. failure to me from outside but I I have. seen reports that inside Iran it's it's. thought that it slowed down the moment. at which Israel attacked. And if it if. it if it wasn't seen as a failure or. indeed if it's still seen as worth.

doing, can Iran resurrect this strategy, especially now that Syria is, you know, Iran has no presence in Syria really. It's much more dominated by Turkey and. Saudi Arabia. So is this is this forward. defense strategy that was so disruptive. for the region actually kind of. permanently finished? In fact, with. other conversations that we had, the. focus wasn't on uh trying to stand up. some form of nuclear weaponization or on. uh proxies. it was on missiles. They. were putting almost all their eggs in. that basket. >> Well, look, I hope you're right. I mean,

this is now sounding somewhat. optimistic, right? A regime that thinks. its past approach wasn't working. A. regime that is serious about wanting to. have negotiations hanging over this, at. least for me, and this gets us to our to. perhaps the third big question is the. regime itself. I mean you you've you've. intimated that it's you never quite sure. where the real source of power is or. what is indeed going on but but what is. your sense you know you you you were. there for the first time but you did you. see very much evidence of the sort of.

overhanging clout of the supreme leader. was he visible he's what he's 86 and and. frail. >> yeah I think because I was a naive you. know first timer in in Iran it was. easier for me to go to people and say. look I don't know anything about this. country, but your supreme leader, he's. pretty old, isn't he? He's going to die. soon. What happens next? >> Yes. >> And I was interested to see first of all. how they'd react to the question, but. then what they'd actually say. Uh people. were very shy of of speculating on who. the next leader could be or giving us. any particular names. But it's clearly.

the game that is played in the parlor, in the cafes where people can speak. frankly uh in Iran. So I I think that is. a huge question that's looming and. hanging over. actually I found people. more open this time to talk about names. but also to say that whoever's a. stalking horse now would probably not be. >> yeah the the name that emerges that you. know until um nobody knew who Ray C was. the previous president or Peskan or. until these names are sort of somehow uh. dangled in front of the public.

>> but there there were reports Nick that. um when um Hami retreated into his. bunker during the 12-day war and and you. know clearly actually was sort of. marginalized a bit but there he he he. felt he was a target and he drew up a. list of successors which didn't include. the favorite his son Maba but did. include three other names and we don't. know who they are the way in which we've. traditionally tried to understand Iran. is um reformists and hardliners some. call them principalists um the. reformists had their uh former president.

Roani um is somebody who is a cleric and. is still very much a name that is being. touted as kind of somebody who could. step into the role of supreme leader. The hardliners um have the backing of. the revolutionary guard or in in our. traditional way that we understand Iran. have their backing. The problem with all. of this is that everything has become. much more muddled that um what may be. driving uh uh many decisions is not. ideology. It's money. It's interest. And.

I think that has led to a massive. blurring of who controls what of. different alliances which straddle the. lines of reformist and hardliner. So. you're actually ending up with a much. more kind of complex picture and it may. actually take time. There may not be a. single name that emerges immediately. It. may take time for for for for a new. leader if there is going to be one to. establish themselves. >> Did you get the sense there that this. was a regime that would be around in 5. years time? >> The absolute misery of a lot of Iranians. suggest to me that they're going to. struggle and they're going to get more.

and more angry. So I'm going to have a a. guess that they're going to fall within. five years. >> They're going to fall. What about you, Ed? I think they'll still be around because. we've predicted it so many times. The. the big question for me is is a change. of leader a change of regime and that. that's the most dangerous moment since. Kamani took power. Nick, >> I'm going to hedge and say that I think. the regime will try to reinvent itself. just as it's accepted that the veil. which was a sort of a symbol of the. regime can go just as it's want reaching. out to America and the great Satan can.

go just as we're now seeing in you um in. the main square in Tan which is Islamic. Revolution Square. They've erected a. huge statue to a past hero predating um. the Age of Islam. um they're. resurrecting national symbols, they're. resurrecting um ancient Persian symbols. This is a regime which I think. understands that its old narrative is. not working and is going to try and. adapt and establish a new narrative but. keep the placeholders there. >> That's really interesting. So the regime.

stays in power by reinventing itself as. a nationalist regime. Talk us through a. little bit more what those signs were. and where you think that goes. >> I mean on the streets it's really hard. to see signs of theocracy. You see them. in the billboards, but I think in the. whole time we were there, we may have. seen what one cleric walking on the. street. One cleric. You you you don't. see you don't see the presence of. religion in society. This is, you know, secular people we met described Iran as. the most secular society in the Middle. East. Some said in the world. Um it's a.

it's a it's. >> what people you met described Iran as. the most secular society in the world. >> I think I mean I certainly heard that. when we were chatting to people. There's. there's an idea from the outside. I. certainly had it, that Irano, it's a. place of mad mullers and nuclear bombs. and that's it. And you get there and. ordinary people are living pretty. ordinary lives. They're riding on a. metro. They're sitting in cafes. They're. very nice coffee shops. You know, these. people are not all going to pray three. times a day. They're living a pretty. ordinary life. >> It's it's a it's a country that wants to.

be connected to the rest of the world. that feels itself wants to have its. natural place in the international. order. And you know the the the ideology. of the of the regime of the revolution. doesn't fit that. And so the revolution. if it's going to sorry the leadership if. it's going to survive is going to have. to adjust to its own population and in. many ways already has taken major. strides towards that. >> I think that's potentially an enormous. source of tension because the IRGC the. the guards which are heavily involved in. the economy make enormous amounts of.

money out of sanctions. That's what. allows them to control the economy. an. open economy is is a big threat to them. So you have, you know, a move to. nationalism which gives power to the. guards, but the guards want distance. between Iran and the rest of the world. That's the source of revenue. >> So you think that because of the the. benefits that the guards get from the. existing regime, they will be resistant. to any kind of reform that leads to an. opening. >> and integration. Yeah. And and the last. point I'd make is don't forget that the. Iranian nuclear program begun under the. sha this is this is in spite of what.

Binyamin Netanyahu says. This is not an. Islamic bomb. It's an Iranian bomb. It's. a national bomb. And therefore, I think. a movement away from a theocracy if if. that's what happens. Doesn't mean that. the nuclear program goes away. That's. not its inspiration. >> Do you agree with that, Nick? >> I very much agree with Ed's point about. this tension between does Iran live in. splendid isolation. You know, you're. talking about an economy which is 90 a. country which is 90 million strong which. has a strong internal economy which in.

itself can you know has has oil has fuel. has many ways of sustaining itself can. continue to get by. Do the do the guards. do the people at the at the helm. continue to monopolize that in which. case sanctions is serving them. We met. one industrialist who insisted that. productivity was increasing because. others weren't coming in. And indeed in. places where there might be competition. like China, Iran is putting in sanctions. of its own if you like protection to. stop to to stop that competition. There. is there is this huge tension between. does Iran remain this close society in.

the grip of the guards or does it do. what its people want to do and re reach. out to the rest of the world.