How is Russia testing the West?

There's this sense in which Russia will. dial up things. Its risk tolerance is. much higher now because it sees itself. in conflict. It will do things which are. very risky and and uh that that can go. too far and I think the signs are that. it may have pulled back from that kind. of activity partly because it got the. message this has very serious risks of. escalating into something which Russia. fundamentally doesn't really want to. trigger a war through these activities. So each side is kind of calibrating. responses to try and assert to the other.

side that it you know wants to deter. that activity but not um carry out. actions which might escalate it and. that's quite a difficult thing to get. right and I think that's definitely one. of the worries. >> and it's also quite a difficult thing to. deter right I mean when I think of the. contrast you know and you know I spent. many years in Beijing as a correspondent. for us and I remember conversations with. Chinese uh in some cases officials. certainly Chinese sort the scholars. saying, "Look, we don't have a full. alliance with Russia because they do.

stuff that is just very reckless. They're not nearly as cautious as we. are." China is a very calculating, very. cautious power. It's, you know, it. thinks about every kind of step that it. takes when it's bullying. So, if Russia. is this kind of somewhat undisiplined or. kind of risk accepting kind of country, how does the West deter that? Well, I. think it is a challenge and I think you. also put yourself into the Russian. mindset which is worth doing which is. they see themselves as under siege. They. sees themselves as under attack. They.

see the Ukrainians who they see of. course as western allies uh attacking. their homeland carrying out drone. attacks, explosions, targeting air. bases, things like that. So in their. mind they are trying to push back at. that. So you can see each side feels it. needs to push back. Um so it requires. both a level of resilience I think. rather than just deterrence because I. think western societies are going to. have to come to terms with the fact. these kind of activities will continue. We're going to see you know. reconnaissance and perhaps sabotage on a.

much larger scale. We're going to see. cyber attacks. We're going to see kind. of arson attacks. These are going to. become part of part of life and I think. they are becoming part of life much more. in some countries like for instance. Poland but also the UK and talked about. Russia interfering in democratic life. trying to stir up tensions trying to. stir up protests anti-immigrant feeling. these are the realities so it it's quite. hard to stop Russia doing that um but it. it may be more about building up the. defenses and the awareness to to detect.

it and to be able to to cope with it. because I think it is a reality. >> Do you pick up discussions on the. western side about why are we always on. defense here? Why are we not trying to. make trouble in Russia? >> It's very interesting because you know. the the the Russians are convinced that. the Western services are I mean they've. long been convinced that Western. services try and stir up ethnic tensions. within Russia and particularly also. around Central Asia and and the. bordering countries. And so in the. Russian mind, the West is already doing. it. So there are some people in the West.

who say, "Well, maybe we should do it. given the the Russians, you know, believe we're doing it. There's very. little cost in actually us doing it. >> You don't think it's currently. happening. There aren't like. disinformation campaigns or sabotage. >> It's harder to see the same kind of. activity. I think if you were in Russia. though, they would say, well, we are. seeing sabotage campaigns. >> done by Ukraine. >> Done by Ukraine. But they would say. Ukraine is a western ally and things. are, you know, Russian airports are. being disrupted by by drones. You know, drones are being flown at the Kremlin. Drones are exploding, you know, at. Russian air bases blowing up bombers. So.

we are already seeing that kind of. activity but done through the west's. proxy in their mind which is Ukraine. So. that is the Russian mindset that it is. already happening. So it is that idea. that there is basically a low-level. conflict not a war but conflict which is. going on with Russia at the moment. I. think we should see it in those terms. and I think part of the problem is the. west has this binary war versus peace. comes from some of our legal and our you. know kind of historical traditions to. have it in that binary way whereas. actually that is not the reality of the.

modern world. modern reality is a. continuum of conflict, you know, at. different levels with allout war at the. very highest end. And we're in that. continuum. >> And it's fascinating how that's kind of. blending with that kind of gig economy. thing, you know, is someone a taxi. driver or are they, you know, someone. with their own car? Well, they're an. Uber driver. It's kind of halfway. And. here it's the same thing, right? It's. not an army on the battlefield. It's not. a professional spy, but it's not exactly. just a kind of street thug because they. are being hired over telegram. It's very. hard to fight, right? >> It is very hard to fight. And the. Russians are using interesting. techniques. They're using Ukrainians. So.

often people who are pro-Russian. Ukrainians or Ukrainians who are just. being paid to carry out some of the. attacks around Europe. We're seeing. quite a bit of that in Europe. And of. course then the idea is to stir up the. idea well it's you know it's the. Ukrainians fault and to try and you know. to undermine support for Ukraine. So I. think you know there's a spectrum there. also with political interference you. know and the support for um different. political ideas and groups and. individuals which we've seen in Europe. as well which again is part of that.

Russian playbook which they're very very. aggressive at using at the moment. >> Is there a sense for today's Russia. because they feel like the underdog. under siege that kind of the worse. things are the more chaotic things are. in the world kind of the better for. Russia because they're just better at. coping with chaos. It's there and that's. the difference you know which why China. is so different. China fundamentally. wants a stable order, you know, want to. be want to be their subverted, you know, their order in an economic order in. which there's trade. Russia, I think, views the current order as a western.

order. It wants to break that apart. certainly. Um, you know, and this idea. of a kind of getting away from, you. know, unipolar world into a multipolar. world is the kind of language they use. But it is basically about the view that. the west is is a perpetual enemy and. therefore to keep it offbalance, divided, weak uh and to undermine any. institutions which it backs. That that. gives Russia in its view room to operate. in a way uh that it doesn't wouldn't. have otherwise.