Has Donald Trump caused a manufacturing revival? | The Economist

You might say. there's not really any sign. of the tariffs doing what. they were supposed to do. Manufacturing employment. was lower in September. than it was in January 2025. Manufacturing real wages. 0.3% higher. than in January 2025, not keeping pace. with inflation. in recent months. Is there any sign. of that re-industrialisation? If I just start. at the beginning. of the administration, you see an uptick in. manufacturing value added. Furthermore, you see. an uptick in. manufacturing productivity.

If part of what you want. to do with the tariff. is to actually. have more manufactured goods. being produced domestically, it may be with. more workers. or it might be. with more robotics. or automation. Whichever it is, from my perspective. I view that. as a success. Manufacturing employment. has been declining. for a while, right? And it was declining. during the. Biden administration, even while you did see. some positive. manufacturing growth. So that should be noted. Now, in 2025, you saw a decrease. in manufacturing employment.

that was not as severe. as in ‘23 and 2024. And then in 2026. you see an increase. in manufacturing employment. The other thing to look at. is the growth in construction. that you see in 2026. I mean, that's. AI data centres isn’t it? That's not totally right. If I look, say, at fabricated metals, transportation, chemicals, you see an uptick. in employment there as well. So I think that. those are some signs that.

they are doing. what they're doing. I think it's. not only tariffs, just to be clear. I think. there are other things. that are also going on. And it would be hard. to disentangle all of them. The one big beautiful bill. provided a lot of incentives. for investment in the country. And I also do think. that a lot of companies. draw signal. from the tariffs. and they draw signal. from some of the interactions. with China and the need. to diversify. their supply chain. And so I think that it's. a combination of the tariffs.

combined with. some of the tax incentives. that I just mentioned. together with a recognition. of where. the global economy. is heading. And all of those three things. combined are causing. more investment. in the country. above and beyond. just what's going. on with the data centres.