Former MI6 chief: Iran has the “upper hand” in the war

Who has the upper hand. right now? Iran. I regret. having come to. this conclusion because, like many MI6 officers. of my generation, we faced the violence. and brutality. of the IRGC. for most of our careers. That’s the. Islamic Revolutionary. Guard Corps. So there is no love. lost between us. and I shed no tears. for Ali Khamenei, who was killed. at the beginning. of this war. But the reality is. the US underestimated.

the task. and I think. as of about. two weeks ago. lost the initiative. to Iran. In practice, the Iranian regime. has been more resilient. than I think. anyone would. have expected. They took some. good decisions, actually, as early as last June, about dispersing. their military capability. and delegating. the authority. for the use of. those weapons, which has given them. significant. extra resilience. against this. incredibly powerful.

air campaign. They have embarked on. what’s technically called. “horizontal escalation”. ie, firing rockets. at anybody. within range, which at the time, honestly Shashank, I thought was nuts. but, in fact, has been a very good way. of putting. a direct price. on the US, has sort of worked. And then. they've understood. the significance of the. energy war. and held the Straits. at threat. and globalised, not internationalised. just globalised, the conflict in a way. that gives them.

some weapons. So, they’ve played. a weak hand pretty well. My second point is. that Donald Trump. has said some stuff. that will have. confirmed something. they knew already, which is that. they're in a. civilisational war, in their terms. They're in. a war of existence. Donald Trump. made it very clear. that he wanted. to see them. up against the wall. basically. Whereas America. has embarked. on a war of choice. And in those terms, I think that’s. imbued them. with more. staying power than. the US. and, certainly, US counterparts.

And they know that now. And I think that really. is giving them. the whip hand.