Elon Musk on AI: humans will no longer be in control in ten years | The Economist

I think AI may exceed the sum of human. intelligence. in about in around five years. >> In five years, >> roughly five years is my guess. Um, so there really won't be anything that. AI. can't do better than humans apart from. being human perhaps. >> In a more prosaic level, what will life. be like? The most likely outcome. is an age of amazing abundance uh where.

anyone can have anything they can think. of. This is this is this may sound. preposterous but well here we are in. 2026. Let's see where we stand in 2036. Now of. course there are things that could. derail this like a a massive global. thermonuclear war or something like. that. Um, but assuming that there's not. World War II, uh, I think I think we're headed for an. age of amazing abundance. So, this is, I.

guess, a message of of optimism. and, uh, excitement about the future. >> You're sure that humans will no longer. be in control in 10 years time? >> I think it is unlikely. Um, in the same. way that if you had a vastly more like, you know, the. like like if if if the difference in. intelligence between AI and humans is.

vastly greater than the difference in. intelligence between AI and chimpanzees, it's hard to imagine that the. chimpanzees would be in charge. >> I'm really sorry. We are essentially um. an evolved form of chimpanzee. So it. wasn't that long ago that we're swinging. through the trees eating bananas um in. the jungle and we still eat bananas. >> You said there was a 10 to 20% chance of. killer robots wiping out humanity. >> So you sounded worried then. Now you.

seem very relaxed about it. Have you. changed your view? >> I still think there's risk associated. with AI and robots. It's not zero. Um, I' I guess I've come to. my my sort of philosophical conclusion. is to look on the bright side. Um, I. like I I can't see any way to really. stop this incredible momentum of AI and. robots. Um, and and at times I sort of. think, well, perhaps, you know, even if.

there was a stop button, we probably. shouldn't press it. uh because. because the most likely outcome is. incredible abundance for for all. >> That's what I thought actually. It. struck me that now you seem to have. decided it's inevitable. Let's hope for the best and go for the. ride. >> Yeah. I mean, yes, pretty much. Let's uh. let's enjoy the ride is is is I think my.

philosophy at this point because I mean. honestly this there's it's it's there. there seems to be just an inexurable. uh progress here in in AI and and in. robots. >> that um. >> but you even if I wanted to stop it I. don't I couldn't um. >> do you think there's still a 10 to 20%. chance that killer robots mean the end. of humanity? That's a high P doom as they say.

>> Well, in the long run, we're all dead of. course. Um, you know, um, so I mean, so. I mean like according to the standard. model of physics, the end of the. universe is um a long boring sort of. thin gray soup of uh gradual cooling. um. meaning the sort of the heat death of. the universe it's called. So now if if. the heat death of the universe is in.

fact the outcome for our reality, then. it really is all about the journey. because the destination is terrible. >> But 10 years [laughter] is not very. Yeah, I get that. But that could be a. long way and you're basically very long. way. >> If it's 10 to 20% in 10 years, you know, would you go into one of your rockets if. you thought there was a 10 to 20% chance. of it blowing up and killing you? >> Yes. But [laughter]. but let's say there's you can't do. anything about it. Mhm. >> that I guess the only thing we can try. to do is minimize the probability of the.

bad outcome. Um but trying to stop the. intelligence in robots. Um. I mean for the longest time I. declined to participate in AI or was you. know you know created open AI as a. essentially a counterweight to to Google. because at the time they were um they. had more or less a monopoly on AI in. creating open AI and then having. anthropics spin out of that and now.

currently anthropics leader in AI. Um, I mean the these actions have actually. resulted in. knock-on effects that accelerated AI, which wasn't really my intention. So, it just seems like all roads lead to. acceleration of AI. So, then I'm like, okay, well, you can. just sort of be sad about it or. join the club, I suppose. >> Well, you've certainly joined the club.

>> Yeah, [laughter]. >> you definitely joined the club. If you. can't beat him, join them. You know, >> a number of the other leaders of of. model makers have been pushing for. different ways to try and minimize the. risks. Um, you know, just last week, Demises came out with a proposal for a. private public regulator. Do you think. you guys should be working more actively. >> to get something in place to control the. risks or do you think that's impossible. too? Yeah, my recommendation to Dennis.

because we I talked to him for a few. hours before he published his his piece. was that um the most immediate thing. that we could do is to have the leading. AI companies um at least just meet uh or. have a some sort of call once every few. weeks um and just. uh discuss. any safety and security issues. >> But why why haven't you done that yet? I. mean you don't all like each other very. much. Yeah. But you're not all you're. not all I mean you're also all competing.

right? You all want to be first. >> Yes. But that's that's where I think. >> um the competitors can keep it keep each. other honest. So meaning meaning like if. um like I think it's quite difficult for. someone in the government who doesn't. have a deep technical understanding and. isn't driving the frontier of of AI to. know whether something should be. released or not. Um however the. competitors I think will can you know if. given sort of a week or two to review a.

new model um can highlight issues and uh. and have an incentive to keep all all. the competitors have an incentive to. keep the others honest. >> So you'd have a system where the model. makers would check each other's work. If. there was something that worried them, you'd tell the government. Yeah. The. government would then think, okay, >> if there's something that was worrisome. and that company was not doing anything. to address that risk, then that would be. the the moment for government to step in. and take action, which is literally what. just what. >> does all this have to happen?

>> Well, I think it would be good to do. that I think. immediately really. >> Yeah, that's what people keep telling. me. we we have to get this some kind of. system in the next 6 months because of. the pace at which the models are. improving. >> Yeah, 6 months is a long time. Um, >> so you think shorter than that? >> Well, I mean there there's so many AI. breakthrough announcements, sometimes. multiple per day. I mean, how many were.

there last week? >> A lot. >> I lost track, you know. >> Yeah, a lot. Um, >> so, so you you basically, you know, whether it's Demis' proposal or others, you need to get together and get this. set up kind of now. It sounds like. you're telling me. >> Yeah. I I I would recommend that we at. least have some sort of informal g um. you know weekly or bi-weekly um call and. and and that like I said just that that. there's that that.

um there's maybe a week or two weeks of. of early access by competitors and this. is why I think the incentives work is. because if if you know competing. companies I think are likely to. understand if something is a security. risk. and they're not going to be shy about. highlighting that that their. competitor's models should be delayed in. release. >> You guys don't much like each other and. you don't much trust each other. You're. insulting each other on on social media. constantly. So, do you do you think you.

can do that with people that you dislike. that that where there seems to be such. kind of personal vitrial between some of. these leaders? >> Um, yes. Well, I'm I'm not a fan of Sam. album because if you started a nonprofit. that was meant to be an open-source AI. company and um you know owned by the. world uh and it somehow got turned into. an $800 billion for-profit company with. closed source. I think you'd be like. well wait a second that's uh the exact.

opposite of what I donated the money. for. That that's my issue. I think it's. a legitimate one. Um, and then Daario I. think also is not a fan of Sam Alman. because he felt uh, in fact the reason. the anthropic team left OpenAI is. because they they didn't trust Sam Alman. otherwise anthropic wouldn't exist. They. would still be at OpenAI. Um, I I think Dario is a very principled. person. He cares about things a lot. uh. cares about the future of the world. And.

I I think everyone I've met at Anthropic. so far has been I'm like no one set off. my evil detector. You know, they always. seem seem like they're well-intentioned. Um and uh the road to hell is I think. mostly paved with bad intentions. There. are a few well-intentioned paving stones. in there, so we we don't want to be. complacent. Um but uh you at the end of. the day, if we have to talk, we'll talk. I mean, set aside our personal. differences for the good of the world. type of thing.