Could NATO survive without America?

How would you describe. the crux of. European reliance on. American military capabilities? Where are those areas. where dependence. is greatest. and most severe? It's essentially. three areas. The first is leadership. There's a lot of disagreement. around that table. of 32 allies. And without a big. ally like the United States. trying to drive consensus, and put its thumb on the scale, it's quite difficult to get people. to rally around a position. Second, going over. to the military level, command and control.

is certainly an. integrating capability. that the United States provides, particularly at those higher levels. We could get to a place. where European allies. could do that. But for now. you really do need that. integrating capability. that NATO's tactical commands. of air command, land command. and maritime command. provide for all allies. And then thirdly. the term is “key enablers”. There are certain. very important. integrating capabilities like.

intelligence, surveillance. and reconnaissance. Logistics, integrated. air and missile defence. that are in short supply. across the alliance. So when we talk about. burden-shifting, actually, this is not something. that's only been born. of Trump's insistence. that Europeans do more. I recall from my time at NATO. during the last NATO. defence-planning process, where allies look at. the capability targets. and what's needed, the United States raised its hand. and said we actually don't have. enough air and missile defence. to cover all your needs.

We actually do not. have enough. naval surface ships. to take on the burden. that you're asking us to. So it's not just politics. that's driving this burden-sharing. and burden-shifting. It is actually the fact. that in some cases. and in some capability areas. the United States. itself is overstretched. Do we blindly follow. these NATO targets. which assume the US. is locked in. for years to come? Or do you reassess this. and say, actually, we need to plug holes. that the Americans might leave? I think it's a bit of both.

I would try to be an optimist. about the US. staying in NATO. because I do again believe. that the majority of Americans, and possibly even. President Trump himself, realise that it is a good deal. for the United States. and that these allies and partners. really do magnify US power. I do think that NATO. is thinking through. how well the. NATO plans could be executed. if the United States. didn't show up. or didn't show up. at the level of magnitude. that was anticipated. Now it will cost. massive amounts of money.

and it will require. hard political choices. I'm not so worried. about the North Atlantic. because of the level of seriousness. and high levels of defence spending. and integration and political. and threat alignment there. I worry about central Europe. I worry about southern. and south-eastern Europe. So to offset that risk. the alliance needs. to go down to that level. of regional planning. and have those conversations.