WW3 Threat Assessment: Trump Bombing Iran Makes WW3 More Likely!

What does the United States think it's. going to gain from decapitating the. Iranian leadership? >> that's kind of obvious based on what the. president has said. It's that. >> On what the president has said? >> I'm I'm just saying based on what the. president says. You can't trust anything. that you're hearing right now. You can't. trust anything that you're reading right. now. Two to most Who would you trust if. you had to trust somebody, right? >> not paranoia. That is absolutely It is. absolutely paranoia to suggest that. everything is misinformation. Iran. doesn't have a nuclear weapon. So, it's. not a nuclear threat. You speak a. different nuclear language than I do. This regime is at its lowest lowest.

point. Why not strike it now? >> I can give lots of reasons why you. wouldn't strike it if they didn't have. the ability to create their own What are. you concerned about? And what are the. unintended consequences that you're. foreseeing? >> There is a domino effect that happens. with every decision that the United. States makes. So, Guys, I've got a quick favor to ask you. We're approaching a significant. subscriber milestone on this show, and. roughly 69% of you that listen and love. this show haven't yet subscribed for. whatever reason. If there was ever a. time for you to do us a favor, if we've.

ever done anything for you, given you. value in any way, it is simply hitting. that subscribe button. And it means so. much to myself, but also to my team, cuz. when we hit these milestones, we go away. as a team and celebrate. And it's the. thing, the simple, free, easy thing you. can do to help make this show a little. bit better every single week. So, that's. a favor I would ask you. And um if you. do hit [clears throat] the subscribe. button, I won't let you down, and we'll. continue to find small ways to make this. whole production better. Thank you so. much for being part of this journey. Means the world. And uh yeah, let's do. this.

>> [music]. >> Benjamin, Annie, Andrew, first and. foremost, thank you for being here. today. I I have to start with the. question that's been on my mind as. somebody that doesn't know a huge amount. about geopolitics, which is. what the hell is going on? And I And I say that because that's. exactly what I mean. What is going on? And what context do I need to understand. this sort of historical context of the. actions we're seeing in Iran with this. war right now. Benjamin,

I know you've got a a personal. connection to Iran because your family. fled Iran, I believe. >> Yeah, I was uh I was 2 years old when we. left in March of 1979. Um uh. a few months after the Shah had left and. uh just after Khomeini had arrived. What. is the Shah and what is Khomeini? Yeah, so the Shah uh the former monarch of. Iran um the Pahlavi dynasty which came. into power in the 1930s deposing a. previous dynasty that had been around. for a couple hundred years. And um the. he his father brought in that dynasty.

and then it was eventually he was. deposed by the British and the Americans. who felt he was getting too close to the. Nazis during World War II. Concerned about supply routes for the. Nazis oil and his son was installed on. the throne at a very young age, I. believe 18 or 19. And um. he ruled Iran from uh from that period. 1941. 1942 around that time all the way. through '79. A great ally of the United. States over over time eventually um and. uh was deposed was was um overthrown in.

a revolution and uh by Khomeini who was. a senior cleric who had been a thorn in. the Shah's side since the '60s, was. exiled first to Turkey, then Iraq, then. ultimately to France right outside Paris. actually. From there he basically led. the revolution that led to the Shah's uh. removal um after in '79. And how was. Iran different when the Shah was in. power versus when Khomeini was in power? That depends on who you ask. Um it was a. constitutional monarchy. The Shah had. powers that exceeded beyond what we.

think a constitutional monarchy has. today like in Great Britain. Um he was. he ruled with an iron fist when he. needed to. He was an authoritarian but. he also was one that was rapidly. modernizing Iranian society. Wanted to. make it more like the West using Iran's. immense oil resources and wealth to. really accelerate development, building. of social institutions, health care, uh. literacy, modernization, all of those. things. That was his focus, make you run. more like the West. And uh in that sense. he succeeded, but it came at the expense. often times of civil liberties for many.

people. It came at the expense of. freedom for those who wanted to. essentially practice religion, Islam, Shia Islam in their own way. The Shah. was not hostile to religion, but he he. his policies were inconsistent with. where the traditional religious Iranians. wanted to go. And it sort of created a. schism in society. And you also had um. uh a wealth gap and income disparity. Immense wealth poured into the country, but it didn't trickle its way downward. into the sort of the village and rural. poor. And so there was a lot of.

frustration, a lot of disenchantment. with his policies. And that led to sort. of this populist backlash of wanting. something that was more democratic, more. accountable, uh more like the West, uh. ironically. And uh and that sort of was. the beginning of of where that cycle. led. And so how did Khomeini take power of. Iran? He. led a movement, a mass populist. movement, not a religious one, but it. meant to. um go across multiple socioeconomic and.

political divides and unified the. opposition under this idea of removing. the monarchy, removing dependence on the. West. He specifically said Iran uh the. United States was to large part to blame. for Iran being in the state that it was, for people not having the the the the. things they needed to live, the. freedoms, the liberties. He blamed the. Shah's um uses of the secret police and. torture methods on the United States and. on Israel, who he claimed, you know, taught the secret police how to do these. things. Um there's a complicated sort of.

history to that. And he basically. promised them salvation from a what he. did what he. portrayed as a puppet tyrant of the. United States. And the masses bought. into this, but both the left and the. right. The really the right consisted of. the the black, the Islamist. So you had. the red, which were sort of the the. Marxist socialist uh uh followers, you. had the black, and then you had sort of. that middle in in between, and they all. coalesced around this one charismatic. religious figure, a very um austere man, um one who didn't really have a lot of.

luxuries himself, led a simple life, but. was consistent with his opposition to. what he saw uh tyranny and despotism. And people bought into it. And the Americans didn't like this. The Americans didn't know what to make. of it, and there was a failure, and I. think Andrew can talk about this as. well, over a failure by the State. Department and the CIA in the '70s to. see where the threat was. They saw the. threat coming from the Soviet Union. They They were still afraid of Soviet. encroachment in the Middle East, particularly through Iran. Their. concerns were with the Marxists, the.

Communist parties. They did not carefully look at the. black. They didn't look at the. Islamists. They didn't see them as a. threat until it was too late. The Shah. himself blocked or really didn't give. the CIA full access to Iran. There was a. limited information that was coming out. He relied on his own um intelligence, which fed him information he wanted to. hear, which is that everything is going. great. The country's doing well. The. people love you. They're all happy. Until the discontent and the the protest. became they reached a threshold, and it.

was too late to do anything about it. Yeah, the United States was kind of at. their peak period of meddling in foreign. governments at the time. Um kind of. uh in a strange way that we've come full. circle, this idea of of controlling an. entire country by controlling the. figurehead of the country. That's where. we were in the uh late '70s, at the kind. of brink of the Cold War, right? Nobody. knew that the Berlin Wall was going to. fall. Uh we were all concerned with the. spread of communism. Nobody was paying. attention to the Islamist threat. Nobody. was paying attention to really any other.

kind of threat at all. It was very much. the the. unfettered, uncontrolled, unsupervised CIA running around with no. oversight and with very deep pockets. And that changed at some point. That. changed in 2001 when Al-Qaeda. successfully carried out the 9/11. attacks in New York and all of a sudden. the threat that we had all been ignoring. was on our doorstep and had grown so. wealthy and had spread so vast across. the world that Islamic extremism became.

almost overnight a household term. Now, there's still a difference between. Al-Qaeda Islamic Shia extremism and what. is practiced in the Shia faith and with. the outcomes that the Shia militants are. trying to pursue. in support of Iran, but. it's hard to differentiate that in the. United States where we don't understand. the difference between Sunni and Shia. Annie, what do you think this war is. really about? Very interesting what you both said and. I think what I would add to that.

to that which very much speaks to today. is. that the CIA in fact had many ups and. downs over the decades from its creation. right after World War II until this. moment in time and then on 9/11. And so. it's been like an accordion experience. of power being taken away from the CIA. and then being grabbed back because the. CIA has always historically been the. president's hidden hand. It has been the.

way in which the White House can execute. executive power. without having to follow the laws of war. that the military does. So, military is. a code called Title 10, CIA is a code. called Title 50. And while that may. sound a bit wonkish, it is important to. understand because Title 50 essentially, as Andrew can speak to, gives the. president authority under classified. presidential directive to change any.

rule he wants that suits him for an. operation at hand, which gets us. precisely to where we are today. So, as. far as I understand, there was the Shah, the sort of royal leader, who was in. power. He was overthrown in the late. 1970s by Khomeini. Khomeini galvanized. people to believe in his way, and he's. been in power ever since. It gets. complicated because Khamenei, with an O, was the original leader of the. revolution and was later replaced by. Khamenei, Oh. Okay, that's two. And but. no, that's that that is a 100%.

>> leader. Yes. The, you know, and this. speaks to the revolutionary nature of. Iran, which has been, you know, taking. place since 1979. You know, in the news today, people hear. the um IR, you know, the. Iranian Revolutionary Guard. And it's so. important to understand that word. revolution because. and you can speak to this better than. any of us, but Iran has been holding. onto this idea that or rather the regime.

has that we are the revolutionary force. against America. That is why the chant. is always death to America. The wound of. 19 of pre-1975, the wound of America meddling and having. the Shah as its puppet is as inflamed or. was as inflamed two days ago. as it was the day after the revolution. in 1979. I think that's probably. important context we missed missed, which is the US got involved in the Shah.

and how he governed Iran. It's a fascinating period in 1951. So, basically, under the Iranian. constitution, the Shah, the king, has. the authority to select the prime. minister with the consent of parliament. The consent part is really nominal. And. so, Mosaddegh, who is a senior member of. parliament and also a member of the. previous royal dynasty, is distantly. related, this. um elderly statesman who the Shah, out. of sort of courtesy, after having gone. through a successive list of prime.

ministers, says, "Okay, I'm going to. appoint him Prime Minister. So, he. wasn't democratically elected. He was. that he was elected to Parliament, but. from there the Shah selected him to be. Prime Minister. Mossadegh nationalized. the oil company, the Anglo-American Oil. Company, which was owned primarily by. the British. This angered the British. who in turn blockaded Iran's ports and. basically shut down its oil industry and. creating a national crisis. Um and. Mossadegh was sort of amassing. additional powers within himself uh for. himself. Basically, overstepping the.

authority that he had, even though he. had the support of a good deal of the. public as it became obvious that this. was a a bad move, especially in the eyes. of um Iran's international trading. partners, and it was causing Iran to be. um isolated. There was pushback towards. him. And then he was removed. The. British had wanted MI6 had wanted to. overthrow him, basically get him. removed, and they um. tried to recruit the United States to. help. Um President Truman refused to uh. engage in this earlier. Eisenhower comes.

in, is more receptive under CIA CIA. Director Allen Dulles to actually engage. in this called Operation TPAJAX, led by. Kermit Roosevelt, who is the CIA agent. uh officer tasked with this. And then. the Americans and the British basically. help foment a crowd that is a part of. the movement that removes Mossadegh. Now, whether it's a common I think a. misconception that the US CIA was behind. it. The British had a bigger role in in. this. The um Americans were more of the. junior partner, but they became sort of.

the public face of it. But Mossadegh was. not this overwhelmingly popular. democratically elected figure either. The history is more complicated. And. regardless, um there've been many Prime. Ministers There were many Prime. Ministers after him. Um and so he was. known as a nationalist cuz he believed. that Iran's oil should be nationalized. and not really beholden to British. interests. And that created a lot of uh. resentment and animosity. But that began. the US-Iranian relationship really. solidified when the Shah returned. He.

didn't leave really, he just sort of. took himself out of the country for a. bit, but he never stepped down. And while this was all being resolved, then he comes back and then the the US. Iranian relationship continues all the. way through '79. So the UK and the US. have been meddling in Iran for a long. time and kind of, you know, exerting their will. The UK since the. 19th century, by far. The UK has been. the dominant colonial force in in modern. Iranian history. And they lose that. power in the sort of 1980s, early 1980s, because the Khomeini comes in. The.

British lose that power with the fall of. pretty much the fall of the empire in. the 1940s after World War II. And the. United States in '79, exactly. And then. since then. the UK and the US haven't been able to. sort of exert control and their will. over Iran. Zero. Zero. There's not even. an embassy there, because of course they. took our embassy, or they took over the. embassy. I mean, it's been and it's been. like ground zero of nothing for the. CIA's power, for any American power, really for any Western power. >> We call it a black box. >> Yeah. It's a rogue nation. It's a black. box of information. A rogue nation is a.

is one of a handful of countries around. the world that follow no international. norms. North Korea is a rogue nation. Belarus. is a rogue nation. Cuba is a rogue. nation. Venezuela was a rogue nation. These countries that completely. stand separate from the the norms of an. international society. And in Iran's case, it also became this. black box where it did not allow. foreigners in, especially not. Westerners. It closed down its embassy. The traditional methods for collecting. intelligence were very difficult. And.

geographically, it's so far away and so. far outside of the the sphere of. influence for the United States that in. terms of intelligence and military. prioritization, it just fell to the bottom of the list. >> And yet, look exactly where it is. It's. right in the middle of the East. And to. Benjamin's point, oil, oil, oil. It's. always about oil. There's always a. component of oil. And there are so many. other oil options in that region besides. Iran, right? Saudi Arabia, UAE,

uh Bahrain, Qatar. They've they've. they've got The United States could. partner with other. Arab countries to get what they wanted. without having to deal with Iran. So, explain to me in simple terms why Trump. right now has decided that this is the. best time to attack Iran. I want to. start with you, Andrew. What's your. point of view on that? The full picture. of what his motivations are. I think the. question that you just asked. is the most prescient question that we. will talk about today. Why? Why now? Why.

is it being communicated the way it's. being communicated? Why was it executed. the way it was executed? So, why is now. the very the best of all times? I frankly don't think it is. I think. that's the narrative that's being. communicated to the world and to the. public. Um what Donald Trump did in attacking. Iran goes against what the ODNI report. assessed for the the most likely threats. against the United States in her 2000 in. the ODNI's 2005 threat assessment. It. goes against the uh Department of War's.

2026. National Defense Strategy and it goes. against the White House's National. Security Strategy. These massive. doctrinal annual assessments for how the. United States will will protect national. security, the attack against Iran goes. contrary to all three of those in terms. of priority and action. So, why. now? Why the way that we've done it? I can't answer it in any kind of logical. way. What's the non-logical answer? It's. a distraction. It's international.

pressure with Israel. It's a cheap win after a series of. losses. It's uh a last-ditch effort before he. understands he that Donald Trump and and. his party will lose control of the House. in the midterms this year. I I have a little bit of a different. take, shall I? Mhm. Um. >> [snorts]. >> I believe the current administration is. led as a completely top-down situation.

In other words, like sole presidential authority. This. current president. is very enraptured with power and with. um prowess, with effectiveness, and. on the heels of Maduro and maybe even. the cartel leader in Mexico. I believe that the current president saw. a moment of of intense weakness that had. been building, no doubt, and in warring in general,

when when looking at it theoretically. like someone like myself, the decapitation strike is the ultimate. strike. It's literally like it sounds. when you can It comes from cut off the. head of the snake. And that is exactly what has happened. Why Why though? Why Why did he do that? Well, I cannot tell you why, but I can. tell you what what we all know that this. happened. So, if you reverse engineer. what happened, I think it become There's only one.

conclusion, which is that. I would think the current president. wanted to do this. and was waiting. till he had the intelligent the good the. intel and the intelligence part of it is. beyond remarkable. Like how they how the. CIA and NSA and you know, probably DIA. and NGA, all of these intelligence. agencies, of which there are many, not. just the CIA, were able to get that. information to the president in that.

exact moment and make that strike and. decapitate the leadership that has been. in power since 1979. When they talk. about the motives here, Trump would. often cite nuclear weapons as the motive. saying he didn't want. Iran to get nuclear weapons. Is is that. what's going on here in your point of. view? The 2025. national threat assessment that was. produced by the ODNI in March, so less. than a year old, specifically says that. Iran was unlikely to pursue the.

development of nuclear enrichment or. nuclear weapons. That was the assessment. of the the ODNI. And that instead their. primary concern was that Iran was going. to focus resources into the research of. biological and chemical weapons. So the. fact that in March of 2025, the ODNI, the assessment of all intelligence. agencies, said Iran is not working on a. nuclear weapon. And then, after the. strike in June of the same year, where. we dropped bunker busters in in Fordow, further obliterating their nuclear. enrichment capability and obliterating.

their program, we have two documents. that say they're not developing it. We. have another series of attacks that says. it's obliterated, and yet we're still. saying. that we need to attack Iran because of. WMD. We've heard that story before. We've heard that WMD is a justice that. the concern of WMD is a just cause for. war, and that was when we invaded Iraq. in 1992. So what do you think the real. motivation there is therefore is? It's. very similar to what Annie is saying. that that we have a current. administration that is President down. It's fascinating if you read the. official documentation because when you.

read the Department of War's national. security strategy, what you hear more. than any other word. is Donald Trump. Our President Donald. Trump is leading America through our. President Donald Trump, the great Donald. Trump, like the it's incredible. When. you hear the speeches that come out of. Marco Rubio's mouth, of Pete Hegseth's. mouth, what do you hear more than any. other term? You hear the name of the. president. Usually you hear we or the government or. this administration. It's not around a. personality. So it's a very interesting. situation because if there's so much of.

a person at stake here, and everybody surrounding the office of. the president is only there because they. are respecting, kissing the ring of the. personality in the center. Benjamin. Netanyahu. >> I'm going to add to that further just. for a moment if I may because. on that point, the button on that is. that if you I watch the president the. current president's speeches to sort of, you know, discern things. And you can. often see get your answer right there. And in one of the speeches either this.

morning or yesterday, he mentioned that. the Ayatollah tried to kill him. And it's to me, it's like, oh, that's. the tit-for-tat. You know, again, top-down or you could. say schoolboy sandbox. I say that as the. mother of two boys. You know, this human. behavior that is way outside the norm. of, you know, intelligence reports and. assessments and these long monographs. that may or may not actually be.

effective. I mean, you know, the biggest. surprises of the past 40 years, the. Berlin Wall falling and 9/11 were. completely unseen by any intelligence. report. So, there is an argument that. those intelligence reports. are as good as a coin toss. So, I want. to come to that point because the very. fact that we have an Islamic Republic is. a direct result of the failure of. American intelligence to see that threat. as early as 1976-77, a failure to inform then President.

Carter to do the necessary take the. necessary steps to support the Shah and. to neutralize that threat. So, the. United States track record in Iran for. the last 40 or 50 years is abysmal when. it comes to intelligence. and when it comes to statecraft. And so, there's that legacy, number one. Number. two, October 7th, 2023, the Hamas attack. against Israel changed the dynamic. entirely. That attack surprised Israeli. intelligence, it surprised Americans, it. surprised almost anybody watching. Nobody thought Hamas was is to do that.

when they did it and the means in which. they did it. So, all of a sudden that. forced a recalibration, a recalculation. of what's at stake, what could happen. If we wait for an imminent threat, till. we see actually the sign outside the. door, it's too late. So, from the. president's perspective, to answer your. original question, why now, why do this? I believe the October 7th attacks, and. it's not at the behest of Israel. necessarily, it's the idea that Iran, we. know finances Hamas, subsidizes Hamas, trains Hamas, equips Hamas, provides um.

logistical support of. on on many levels, so that Hamas can be. what it was, and Hezbollah also. So, you. have these destabilizing non-state. groups in the Middle East wreaking. havoc, destabilizing, causing causing. chaos. You're the United States, you're. also dealing with a nuclear threshold. state. So, Iran may or may not have a. nuclear weapons program, but they. exceeded the 20% enrichment that they. were allowed to do under the non-nuclear. non-proliferation treaty. They they. violated IAEA safeguards. They they. lied. So, you take all of this together.

This is a regime that can't be trusted, that chants death to America, which is. more than Saddam Hussein ever did, and is funding groups that had that up. until 9/11, Iran was behind more acts of. terror that cost American lives than any. other state or non-state group in the. world. 9/11 changed that, but up until. that, the Marine barracks bombing. in in the 1980s, terrorist attacks. throughout Europe, South America, US. Embassy, absolutely. The USS Cole, all. right? So,

this is a we've we've been at war from. the president's perspective with Iran. since they took our hostages, for which. they've never atoned for. They've never. been held to account for. So, if you. take that calculus, and then now we're. in a post-October 7th world. with a nuclear threshold state, what happened that changed was last. year's six-day a 12-day war in June. created an opportunity, weakened Iran. enough in its proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas, weakened. If there's an opportunity to. finally address this 47-year-old. conflict, this was the window to do it.

That is why I believe, rightly or. wrongly, the president took the action. when he did. That doesn't make it the best window. And that's what we're being told is it. was the last best window. I don't think. it was the last best window, but it was. a window or at least from their. perspective it was it was a window. You've got everyone weekend, you've got. the the regime less popular than it's. ever been. I mean, we saw the protests. in January that led to the the, you. know, the the bloodbath that, you know, upwards of 30,000 people killed on. January 8th and 9th. This was, you know,

this this regime is at its lowest lowest. point both in terms of domestic. credibility and soft power and ability. to to use proxies to carry out its will. Why not strike it now would be the. logic. I mean, I can give lots of reasons why. you wouldn't strike it. It's it's it's. violating international law. It sets a. dangerous precedent. It creates. instability. There are Americans dead, and Moradi's dead, Saudis dead. For what? For for for something that was. already on the precipice of dying. itself. It's been dying for 40 years,

though. >> let it run its course? >> Because because what more damage is it. going to do? What more October 7th can. we see? Arguably less than anything. that's already been done. So, it's like. taking action on it's like putting down. the dead dog after it's done all of its. damage. It was Well, you I don't think. that you could say to the families of. the 30,000 some people who were murdered. by the regime just earlier, you know, in. January that it's a dead dog. I don't I. think they would disagree. >> That's it's their country. It's their.

people. It's their. it's their decision. It's their right to. self-determination. >> done. I'm I'm just simply telling saying. the facts of that which I agree with, you know, unilaterally that the the. weekend situation was perceived by this. administration as the moment to strike. And what is done is done. And so, I. think what's more interesting to me is. Agreed. >> And so, I think what's more interesting. to me is. you know, observing how America is dealing with. this. I mean, we are in our own crisis,

America, our own serious crisis. And. there are crises around the world, particularly in this area, and without. having a crystal ball, none of us know. And I think that. what will happen in the next 2 weeks. will be profoundly telling. Interestingly, people will say, "This. was a good move." Or this will was a bad. move, which in and of itself is a. bizarre theater because. your point is correct. You've got, you. know, America taking action in a place.

that's not it's not it's backyard. >> country. >> Yes. And to your point, you've got, you know, decades of a menace that is. now off the table. I would disagree with that. Exactly. We. don't know. And And the worst part is. that in the lead-up to this, Iran's. relationship with the with Russia and. China and and other countries that are. successfully countering American. influence worldwide had grown closer. than ever before. I think they're. fair-weather friends. They'd just turn. on them in a second.

>> What are you concerned about, aren't. you? So, so there's a number of things. here. So, first of all, with the removal. of Maduro in Venezuela, which happened. less than 60 days ago, and now the. killing, the assassination of a of a. leader. >> The decapitation of the regime. Which. was the same thing you did here when you. rendered Maduro, right? It's a. decapitation of a regime. >> different. I'm I am would say if you're. going to, you know, extract someone, you haven't killed them. So, that's not. decapitation. >> That's basically swapping out the CEO. This is completely reforming the. company, or at least trying to. Because.

because they were different countries, they operated in different ways. But. when you attack the leadership, when you attack the head of state, that is protected under international. law. Because because when you do that, you open the gates for everyone. >> Of course. What is it What is it the. heart of your concern? Because it sounds. like you're saying that this wasn't the. right time to do this. And and so what. are the unintended consequences that. you're foreseeing? So, there is a domino. effect that happens with every decision. that the United States makes. And now. that we have essentially taken this.

military action against a sovereign. country, it opens the door for all sorts. of other countries to just unilaterally. choose when they're going to take action. against another sovereign. Independent. We have created more opportunity for. more rogue nations, which is a greater. abandonment of an international. community, which destabilizes our global. trade, our economics, our sense of. personal security. The. Americans are less secure now than they. were 4 days ago. They're targeted now.

more than they were 4 days ago. And if. we if we are coming to the conclusion. that we need to make things worse before. we can make things better, that's a conversation I guess we can. have, the debate we can have. But with. with the crisis that we have here at. home, with the concerns that exist, with the. stated priority. >> here at home? We have an economic crisis. here at home, an immigration crisis here. at home. We have a crisis of politics. here at home. Like the United States is. I would just say it's tribal warfare. here at home. I mean I watch it and it's.

just very very very dangerous. Keep. going. No, no, no, it's just Now we have. just exacerbated that even more. And. we've exacerbated that more. with an ally in the Middle East. that. just got done carrying out one of the. most destructive. attacks in history against Gaza. You you. brought up something. You talked about. sovereignty uh with regards to the. January 8th. um. the violence committed against the. protesters. You said that that basically. it's their own people's.

self-determination. How do How does the international. community deal with acts of state. violence against its own people? That's. So, we have a a word for that and it's. called intrastate conflicts. Conflict. inside of a state, a civil war. >> Right. Mhm. The international community. has no responsibility for stepping into. a civil war. So, that was the This is a. great point. This is the debate that the. that the four allied powers had at the. end of World War when they were. convening the Nuremberg trials. You had. this idea that we don't have laws to. account for how a country or state.

treats people within its own sovereign. borders. The idea is that Germany could. do what Germany did within Germany. proper, forget about occupied Germany, within its own borders. They could. mistreat anybody because that was German. law. And the push was that that's not. the world we want to live in anymore. We. want to live in a world where basically. nations cannot do that to people. And. that's where the basis of the Nuremberg. tribunals came and that's where we got. international law of war crimes, crimes. of aggression, genocide, so on and so. forth. So, the idea is that just because. Iran is sovereign, we we sit back and.

allow them to do that. It's It wasn't a. civil war because one side was fighting. with with with knives, machetes, assault. rifles. The other side had spoons, wooden spoons, you know, I mean, that. kind of thing, right? It was so. lopsided. It was such an abuse and a. asymmetric battle. Under the Clinton. administration, we chose to not be part. of the International Criminal Court. We. pulled ourselves out of the very same. conclusion that you're talking about. >> Yeah, but Nuremberg was not but but. there's also the ICJ. There's a UN. framework that's independent from the. ICC and the Rome treaty. So, all I'm.

saying is we do have international law. that addresses what nations can do to. their own people. And we violated. international law by by run by attacking. a head of state. So, what what is the. There's no continuity. There's no. consistency. We choose to do what we. choose to do, we choose to support what. we choose to support, and we choose to. abandon what we choose to abandon. And. how how do you make sense in a world. like that? How do you predict the. future? How do you manage even raising a. family? How do you know where you can. travel? How do you decide on. investments? How do you can't That is a.

great point and I think that's the. that's a you know, that's a point to be. made here is that there's an absence of. the enforcement of law internationally. and it's victor's justice. And the. dominant will essentially exercise. whatever will they want, the law be. damned. Do you think this is part of Trump's. what his motivations are linked his. personal legacy? And I say this a lot. cuz I think sometimes you got to kind of. follow the incentive structure, especially with a president that can't. be reelected, who has talked a lot about. wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize, although he's probably never said it. directly. And you It almost looks like a.

Trump that's thinking about his legacy. ahead of time. And one's legacy is going. to be determined by like the wars you. you start, the people you take out, the. Venezuela situation, the economies seems. to be really important to him. Do you. think this is he he's motivated more so. by his legacy than say someone else? I. do believe that we are in a position. where this is the first president we've. ever had. And I would love to be wrong. Please. disagree with me on this, but I think. this is the first president we've ever. had that's more focused on personal. legacy. than professional or political legacy. I.

think he's thinking about Donald Trump. and the name Trump and the Trump fortune. and the Trump future more than he's. thinking about the image of him on. children's bookmarks as a as a president. of the United States for the rest of the. existence of the United States. I hope. I'm wrong, but I don't feel like he's. motivated by. country, by. service. He is supposed to be a public. servant. >> country over part or party over country, it's brand over country, the Trump. brand. I would agree with that, yeah.

I've never had a president talking about. I might take Greenland, might might go. to Venezuela. Um He He fancies himself a. deal maker. He wants a Nobel Peace. Prize. He He prides himself on the. number of wars that he's he's he's he's. um ended, um conflicts that he's solved. I think ideally he would have wanted. Iran to end up with a diplomatic. solution. He came with terms. I don't. think war was a preferred option. I. think he would be much happier if there. was an agreement that, you know, allowed. everything to kind of stay in place. Iran would abide by nuclear. restrictions, missile restrictions,

proxy restrictions, and then a Trump. casino gets built in, you know, Tehran. That would have made him happy. Because. yeah, that is about the personal. That. is about the brand. That And it's also. he sees that as benefiting the United. States, benefiting the US's global. partners in the region. So, but but I. think a lot of this is personally. driven. I would I I would agree. I also find it quite fascinating that. our Prime Minister in the UK, Keir. Starmer, is not being asked about any of. this stuff ahead of time. I think if we. go back a couple of decades, the UK and. the US were allies. Now it seems like.

the US is kind of acting as a lone force. in the world. And it's funny because, you know, I watched Keir Starmer come. out after the attacks have happened, and. he clearly had no idea what was going to. happen. Same in Venezuela. Once upon a. time you would have briefed us. The president did go to the Prime. Minister about, I think, using Diego. Garcia and other bases, um, and was. turned down, if I'm not mistaken, right? That That So, there was some awareness. that something was being planned, and. and the Prime Minister said that the. that the UK government would have no. part in any of that. What's going on. here? What's the the macro picture of in.

terms of the declining world order that. we once knew, where we had where it. wasn't just United States running around. doing whatever they liked, and other. people might be briefed or asked? I mean, I'm interested in looking at. outcome, you know, and then kind of. looking backwards at how we got there. And I'm also very interested in how. divided America is, because I really do. see it as the greatest weakness. So, you. can show strength in what just happened, but if you are extremely vulnerable at.

home, that And I'm not talking. necessarily about Hezbollah terrorist. cells being, you know, activated, which. may or may not happen. I'm just talking. about the the clash of political parties. in the United States. And. to that end, I often look at. the past. And like so, we're talking. about You mentioned, you know, being. friendly and having our allies and our. and I can't help but look at the.

reaction of the opposing party right now. at this action for better for worse, but. bringing up the Iraq war. And talking about how we. got our allies involved, we went to. Congress. And I. as a historian. can't help but think, but wait a minute, the Iraq war was built on faulty. intelligence. The Iraq war led us into a.

20-year. absolute misery with so many people in. this area killed and so many more. problems metastasizing as a result. And. so to to be selective about what works. and what what what doesn't work is to me. as dangerous as a situation as we are in. now. And I know that's a little bit. skirting away from. you know, giving you an answer as to why.

what was done was done or whether it's a. good idea or bad idea. It just simply is. very interesting to me because I can't. help but see, you know, being a subject matter expert. on the history of the CIA in particular. I see these actions. where it is presidential authority. driven. since the end of World War II. And to. me, that's what this action looks like. So we're in the new era where we are in, which I find interesting, is where. the president of the United States can.

essentially take what would historically. be a covert action operation. You. wouldn't even know about it. That would. be the idea. Instead. announcing it as a military program. So. he's merging the legal authorities of. title 10 and title 50. And of course the average person in the. United States doesn't like, "Oh, wait a. minute. He's merging those authorities. because. >> is a thumb What are the Title 10 and. Title 50? Well, Title 10 is the military. must follow certain laws of war. Okay.

>> Okay? And Title 50 says, if the. president decides it is a national. security threat, he can use the CIA's. paramilitary. that is an actual mili- military force. They sheep dip Tier 1 operators over. from the military and take the patches. off their shoulders, put them in. non-military clothing, and send them out. to do military type work. So, he's using. the military how he wants to use them. >> Yes, and that's. >> that right. As the commander in chief,

as the chief executive of the United. States, the DOD, or now the DOW, and CIA. fall under the executive branch. They. don't fall under the legislative branch. They don't fall under the the judicial. branch. So, the president has and always. has had the ability to take these types. of actions and write executive orders. What's so different here is that while. we're talking about CIA and CIA being. used. um by the president in his exercise of. authority,

what we're all not talking about, what. we're missing, is that CIA has been. gutted. This is the same president that. went to a war with CIA in his first. term. CIA has gone through massive. attrition since then. They were defunded. under his first presidency. So, Director Ratcliffe is the least used. director, the least referenced director. You never hear about him. Is he the head. of the CIA? >> He is the head of the CIA. And And. what I am concerned about is that the. CIA I left.

in 2014. was already missing intelligence on. Venezuela and and Iran. Since then, it's. gotten smaller, it's gotten marginalized. more, it went to it's been treated. hostilely by the by the US president, and the CIA that I. had started hearing rumors about in the. early 2020s, 65% of the intelligence. that they were producing was coming from. foreign allies. They didn't have the ability to create. their own intelligence or sit and.

outsource it. >> is that every CIA, sadly, you know, has. nostalgia for the former CIA if you look. at history, and believes that their CIA. was better than the current CIA. That's. just the nature of. >> saying it was better or worse. I'm just. saying the intelligence that the CIA is. using now, I I would argue. that we keep talking about CIA and you. keep seeing CIA in the headlines, and. it's actually not But but hang on. But. hang on. ODNI didn't or at least. according to, shall we say, The New York.

Times, which must have come from the. White House, CIA provided the. intelligence. >> Exactly. That's. fake. I don't think that's real. I don't. think that is a shield. Here's the thing. CIA is. CIA is the Central Intelligence Agency, which is by design. It means that every. other intelligence that comes from every. other agency inside the DOG, inside of. the National Security infrastructure, has to come through CIA. Only CIA. produces the final product to the. president. So, therefore, everything is.

CIA. And CIA contain and CIA is the one. that's in charge of maintaining foreign. relationships with foreign intelligence. services. So, when Israel has an. intelligence report that they share with. the US president, it goes through the. CIA. So, all credit and all blame always. goes to CIA. That doesn't mean CIA. actually had the intelligence. themselves. >> who do you think had the intelligence, and why does this matter? The number one. most informed country in the world on. the goings-on in Iran is Israel. Tell me.

if I'm wrong. >> No, I would agree with that. >> There's no way the United States would. have been able to launch against Iran. without close coordination and. incredible intelligence support from. Israel. >> And I'm going to disagree a little bit. >> why does it matter? Because it means. that Israel could be directing the. activities of the US military by the. intelligence they select to give to the. press. So, I wouldn't take that step. >> Yeah. >> [laughter]. >> I don't think Israel has a monopoly on. intelligence provided. Um we know that. uh MI6 has also historically been very. active and very capable, probably more.

so than CIA has been and in large part. because the British government has a. embassy, has diplomatic ties, um has. trade and economic ties with Iran. Um. and it's and the Islamic regime has seen. the UK as a effective sort of pipeline. or conduit to the United States and has. used that in the past. Um sometimes. you know, to to better effect than. before, but I I think that there's a I. think there's sources of intelligence. that the United States gets and Israel. is influential, but I don't think it is.

the sole influencer or the one that. pushes it over the edge one way or the. other. >> I wasn't saying that they're the sole, but but when it came to Iran, and I. think we're saying the same thing, they. are they don't have the monopoly, but. they have the they're the biggest game. in town exactly when it comes to. understanding what's happening in Iran. I mean, I'm going to disagree because I. think that it Okay, look at past. situations where. the United States attempted to do a. decapitation strike and then have a. regime change. You can look at Iraq. We. tried to kill Saddam Hussein, failed,

and then a disaster blows up. Libya, tried to kill Gaddafi, fails, a disaster. blows up. Iran. tries to kill. the regime or take decapitate the regime. and succeeds. So, you are you saying that you believe. that's because in the other situations. the intelligence was coming from the CIA. who didn't have such great intelligence. and in this situation the intelligence.

was coming from Israel who did? No. I'm. saying that. that. a big piece of the opportunity of Iran. is tied to the opportunity that was. presented to us by our allies in the. region. I don't think it's just Israel. Saudi Arabia wants to see the end of. Iran, UAE wants to see the end of Iran, Jordan wants to see the end of Iran. There's multiple allies in the region. that want to see the end of Iran. But. when it came to who had the longest, most reliable human intelligence source.

network inside Iran, I don't think anybody came even close to. comparing with. with Israel. >> And you're saying that was used. selectively, meaning. >> Because all intelligence that's shared. with an ally is selective. >> Of course. I have 10 pieces. Do I give. all 10 pieces to my ally or do I give. just the three pieces that I think will. move them off the X? >> Well, you had to They had to have those. 20 individuals tagged to do their find, fix, and finishing. Period, end of. story. It couldn't have happened without. it. And I believe that the United.

States, the CIA, aggregates all that. intelligence, you know, sigint, I mean, all the ints. to know that. I can't imagine how Israel. knew that more than the United States. >> [gasps]. >> I just I've I That's my That's where I. was betting my horse. >> give you a very quick example, right? You're 100% right. The people have to be. tagged. When you tag a cell phone, let's. just say we're talking about cell. phones. Cell phones give you a geo a. geolocation. Every cell phone signal. sends a geo tag. But only on the service network that.

controls that phone. United States. doesn't have access to most of the. service providers in the Middle East. So, you already have to have someone to. interlocute the Middle Eastern service. provider with the West. And then on top. of that, you then have to be able to. identify that that selector, that cell. phone, belongs to that person. Again, if. you think that the United States is so. powerful it has every cell phone of. every person around the country, around. the world, they're I think there's biometric. tagging that.

is not necessarily electronic based. So, you're saying that it. I I appreciate your point of view. The point is that Iran, according to every prioritized list that. we have, is on the low end of our. priorities. Russia's above them, China's. above them. Uh the cartels across Mexico are above. them. So, somehow we had such refined. intelligence on. What's your conclusion here, Andrew? Cuz. I feel like there's a there's a second.

half of your point that's missing, like. a conclusion that you're. you're pointing towards but not saying. >> Isn't it just the lowest of the hanging. fruits of all the ones you mentioned. also? Correct. It doesn't So, what I'm. saying is I it doesn't make sense. that we would take this action unless. we are really just acting on the behest. of our allies. for some other kind of gain. A personal. gain for the Trump brand, if you will. Some sort of uh hegemony that the United. States is desperately grasping for, cuz.

we realize we don't have that power and. influence anymore. And as a result of. these actions and actions like what we. took in Venezuela, we have now empowered. and validated some of the worst regimes. in the world that we've always held. accountable for taking the same kind of. actions that we take. >> And who are you concerned about as it. relates to other regimes? >> China, Russia. This Russia. I believe that a big part of the reason. that that Zelenskyy hasn't been. assassinated by Russia is because that. would be crossing a red line. That would.

That would infuriate Europe and the. United States because you don't attack. world leaders. We just gave them. permission to do so. The same thing in. Taiwan. We can Now China has free reign. to just assassinate one person in. Taiwan. And And that's just them. We're. not even talking about Pakistan and. India. We're not talking about any of. the border disputes that are happening. anywhere else across Asia or warlords in. Africa. We just validated. these these illegal, inhumane, extrajudicial processes all over the. world. So, unlike these other world.

leaders, Khomeini was his his his his. philosophy, his entire ideology was. is built on death to America among death. to other things. You don't have other. world leaders, you don't have the. president of Taiwan saying death to. China, you don't have Zelensky even. saying death to Russia. He might want. Putin dead, but he's not sort of he. doesn't want the demise of the entire. Russian Republic. Uh. so, I think this is where Khomeini. stands apart where it is it is a. a movement which became a system of.

government predicated on the demise and. the destruction of of the United States. >> What's interesting with How do you. counter that? Yeah. >> With interesting with the term stands. apart is I was imagining therefore a. spectrum. And the minute it becomes a spectrum, it. becomes somewhat subjective. So, you know, one might say, well, we. think they wanted to hurt us. Whereas. before in my head when you when I grew. up, I always used to see these wars and. go, why don't they just they know what. the guy lives like. I know that sounds. like a simplified way, but they know. where he is. Why don't they just take. him out? And and it was always it always. felt to me that that was off the table.

in what you can't just assassinate a. leader cuz you don't like them or you're. having a sort of geopolitical. disagreement. [clears throat]. And it's actually only in the last sort. of year or two that I've thought, okay, maybe it is free reign to just fly in. and snatch someone out of bed with their. wife, which is what happened in. Venezuela. And then seeing this that you. can just drop a bomb on them wherever. they are. It does kind of make you. you know, wonder, maybe this is now on. the table. I've never really seen that in my. lifetime. I mean, I know there were some. things that went on in Libya and in Iraq. and so on, but to snatch a prime. minister out of bed with his wife and.

fly him over and with photos of it, I. go, wow, this is. this is a new type of uh geopolitical. action. >> the Yes, what our Secretary of State is. calling the golden era of the United. States. The old world is gone. Like these are. the this is the narrative coming out and. and being spread by the representation. of the free world. France, their Macron. just this morning stated that to be free. you must be feared.

This is the world that we're creating? Death to America? Guess how much I care about that. Guess. how much I care that a poor broke ass. far away piddly dink country. says death to America. Guess how afraid. I am of that. Zero. And guess how afraid. multiple people who have led the United. States have been afraid of that. They. They're not. You can say it all you. want. Doesn't matter. And when you do. when you do carry out an attack Right. against the USS Cole. for every one attack that's successful,

25 of them are thwarted. That's the. That's the benefit of being the most. powerful military in the world. You. don't have to. worry about everybody who chants in the. streets. How many people disown their kids cuz. they say I hate you when they're. teenagers? You don't care You're like, give it time, they'll grow up, they'll. be fine. They've got to go through their. before they realize what it's like. to be grown-ups. That's what we say. about our children. You can say You can say the same thing. about a country that just came to power. in 1979?

They're less than a hundred years old. What do What do they know about how to. actually be a country? What do we know? We're only 250 years old. Um I mean, it's hard it's hard to. swallow that like, you know, it's okay. if you have like a horrible, you know, murderous, brutal regime making women. run around in hijabs and ruining entire. thousands of years old Persian. civilization. >> been to this part of the world? I have. not been to that part. >> they That's normal life there. That's.

What do you think is happening in the in. the Hermit Kingdom in North Korea? I mean, shoot, look, Afghanistan. We. left Afghanistan and knew that that's. what exactly what the Taliban was going. to do. >> Right, but what's happening what's. happening here is not since '79 is not. normal. But But just to go back to one. step for a second, who do we know. launched the missiles that killed the. supreme leader and all the other. um in the hierarchy? The I think the. credit is going to the United States. No. No. No. No. The credit is going to. Israel. >> So so so Israel is the one that. essentially pushed the button, pulled.

the trigger, what have you. The US. provided. Exactly. In which case then does does. Israel have the prerogative to take out. a head of state that was. you know essentially the only nation. state might I remind you that came out. in support of the October 7th attacks. It was only Iran. Not even North Korea. came out and said anything. No one else. said. Khamenei absolutely said this was. Not only that, on October 8th he. directed Hezbollah to join the war. >> is he a fair is he a fair target for. Israel? >> It's a great question. Is he a. combatant? Yeah.

If a if a. >> Can you answer that? authorizes, funds, motivates, endorses, and basically. encourages, and shoves out the door your. attacker, do you then have a right to go. after them? That's I think that's maybe. that's the $10,000 question here. Okay. >> Because because if you are will if. you're willing to see the the leader of. every country as an as a combatant, they. are the heads of the military. The. president is the the commander-in-chief. of the military. If they are combatant, they are a legal. target. So if they're a legal target,

why is it against international law to. attack head of state? And even more, what's the acceptable. collateral damage? Because Israel is. notorious for assassinations around the. world. It's it's what makes them so. difficult for other people to ally with. because we don't support assassinations. And most assassinations are not legal. combatants. They're scientists. That's a. civilian. They're experts. That's a. civilian. They're heads of industry. That's a civilian. They're generals, but. not in a hot conflict. That makes them a. non-combatant. >> The space is you're talking about the.

line between civilian and someone who. works for the government or is on a. government-funded weapons program or. something of that nature. Those lines. are blurred in the Middle East. We know. that. >> Those lines are blurred everywhere. A. civilian who works for a company that's. hired by the US military, is that person. a combatant? >> Okay, but it but those distinctions are. are are far more subtle in the Middle. East and especially when you're a. scientist working for a state nuclear. program. >> That you're being forced to work for. because you're one of the few scientists. that can do it. I I don't know. Are they.

forced to work for? I mean I mean there. are there are defectors. There are those. who who who opt and then there are those. who double down and become religious. cheerleaders supporting what the. government's doing. I mean the point I'm. making is that you saying it doesn't. give you the international under. international law the right to take out. a head of state. What if it was. self-defense? That's not what it was. >> a counter narrative here. Just to throw. it out and kind of switch up the the. discussion here. You know, this administration is very. interested in in social media. And for.

that reason I am too. And I look at I. saw a meme that was going around. immediately after this. um decapitation event. So quickly in fact it made me wonder. like who pushed that out that quickly. And it's a white sheet of paper with all. the months of the year of 2026. And. January there's a picture of Maduro. February there's a picture of the. Mexican cartel leader. March, one day.

off, there's a picture of the supreme. leader of Iran. And then there's a. question mark in the other months. And. it made me think and sort of wonder. speculate. Is this messaging to Putin. that he better start negotiating with. Trump? No, Putin's a whole different. beast. What What that's a message to is. the leader of Cuba. Yeah, Cuba I was. going to say is next. >> And if you follow what the United States. considers to be the four state sponsors. of terrorism.

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United States to the brink of nuclear. war during the Kennedy administration. It's one of the only countries in the. Western Hemisphere that does not fall. under the United States' sphere of. influence. >> I actually saw this yesterday. The Cuban government is talking with us. and they're in a big deal of trouble as. you know. They have. no money, they have no anything right. now, but they're talking with us. And maybe we'll have a friendly takeover. of Cuba. Exactly. So, Trump says that. >> Precisely. Maybe we'll have a friendly.

takeover of Cuba. And he said that 2. days ago. >> Mhm. So, Cuba's next and then North Korea? Do. you They wouldn't North Korea have. nuclear weapons though, don't they? I. mean, so. >> Yes, they do. I I always wonder that. Actually, does getting to a point where. you have nuclear weapons kind of mean. the US will leave you alone? Absolutely. I think that part of all of this is the. the sort of elephant in the room is that. you cannot, you know, the United States. will not let anyone else join the. nuclear line.

North Korea was the last example of that. mistake during the Clinton. administration. being told by the leader of North Korea, "Oh, no, no, we're not going to have a. nuclear program." And then him not, you. know, deciding by sort of committee and. all his sage advisers and following and. talking to Congress and all of that, "We're not going to attack North Korea. That would be unacceptable." That was. the Democratic President Clinton's. position. And as a result, North Korea.

developed nuclear weapons and now has. nuclear weapons and the nuclear weapons. systems to strike the United States. And. has demonstrated, you know, a desire, if. provoked, or actually has said, if. provoked, it would do so. And so, you. know, you. that was not going to happen with Iran. Certainly not on this watch and probably. not on any watch. Is there a bit of an. unspoken rule geopolitically where if. you get to nuclear weapons you can do. whatever the hell you want? It's It's. the ultimate deterrent.

>> Yeah, absolutely. You can't mess with. somebody who has a nuclear weapon. And. you And you what And you don't. One of. my friends was asking me this morning. how the situation with Iran getting. nuclear weapons is any different from. the situation with North Korea having. nuclear weapons or is it the same? Well, it's the same thing. It's only perhaps. worse. Well, now this regime is. is it is up We don't know what will. happen with it, but having, you know, an. ash. Correct me on this pronunciation. The idea that the Shia idea that.

the sort of apocalyptic end is not. necessarily a bad thing. Uh the arrival. of the Mahdi and and and and that whole. thing, right? Sort of creating the. conditions for that to come about. >> Yes. There's a There's kind of a. undergirding the Islamic regime's. thinking is this idea. And that's very. dangerous to the idea that we don't want. to have a nuclear war. >> Though that regime is not suicidal. I I I will sort of state that Khomeini. was was prepared to die for his cause, but he was not suicidal in the sense. that he would go out and sort of, you.

know, um if you could, I don't think, start a nuclear war that he knew his his. country was going to. get destroyed fighting. Uh that is, I. think, you know, one distinction. And. I'm not saying North Korea is suicidal, but definitely what remains of the. government there is not is not suicidal. Um I don't think there is ideological. diehards, as we saw in the founding. fathers, of which Khomeini was the last. one. So, that changes it a little bit. Now that he's dead, you know, um there's. uh the um. a philosopher, Eric Hoffer, he sort of. wrote that great causes start as.

movements, then they become businesses, then they become rackets. Okay? So, Khomeini moves Khomeini's movement that. started in the '70s, that was the. movement. It became a business, a. enterprise of which the Islamic. Revolutionary Guard Corps profited. immensely till it became a racket. And. now we're at the racket phase of it, and. the only one really left are the. racketeering leaders. You know, and and. because the the the spiritual leaders. are now gone. Um what happens next, I think, is sort. of and you know, we're now right much in. unknown territory with that. Andrew, to. that point of nuclear weapons, if Iran.

had already violated um many of the. things they'd said around nuclear. weapons, and they had I think they'd. have enriched uranium to 60% roughly, they would have theoretically continued. to go because they know that if you want. the US and other people in the region to. stay away from you, you've got to get nuclear weapons. And. once you get back to that point, then. you you no one's going to mess with you. So, I think the assumption is that no. one will mess with you with nuclear. weapons. I don't think that that is. going to be the assumption for much. longer. I think that that Iran recognized that. if it could get a path to a deployable.

nuclear capability, whether it's a. rocket or whether it's a missile or even. if it's a truck with a nuke in the. trunk, they had options. 60% enrichment, they have op- I mean, that's a dirty bomb. They have options. there. I mean, with just nuclear waste, they have options to cause real damage. But, enriched military grade sustainable. kind of permanent state nuclear. capability is a much higher level of. enrichment than that. And that's arguably what they have in. North Korea. Their deployability, their.

capability for actually putting it on a. rocket and having the rocket hit where. it's supposed to hit and not blow up on. the launchpad is a little bit different. And for that reason, I think we have to. take seriously the fact that if the. United States wanted to demonstrate. their power against the nuclear capable. country, they could do it against North Korea. There's also this concept that our. current military doctrine under Heggseth. has applied that no other president has. ever applied and no other Department of. Defense, Department of War has applied. And that's this idea called burden. sharing.

According to Department of War, their doctrine now is a doctrine of. burden sharing, which means they will. force the burden of a national security. interest on American allies. An example is they go into Iran with a. small naval force. They bomb Iran knowing very well that. Iran is going to spread the pain across. our allies in the Middle East. To the United States Department of War, that is us, that is our allies sharing. the burden. If they want to be our.

allies, they have to do this. Same thing. is happening with Ukraine and with. Russia. If you want if Europe, if you. want to counter Russia, you must share. the burden with the United States. It. also gives the the United States now. carte blanche to go anywhere it wants. with a limited force, stir up a hornet's. nest, and then let everybody else pay. the price. >> Well, in terms of the Middle East, it. certainly was an effective move because, you know, all of these. six countries that Iran has now bomb,

you know, attacked in the past 48 hours. are now very angry with Iran. So, the. burden sharing has gone from kind of. like, this is a fight that you were not. in to this is a fight we are in. I don't think that anybody has taken any. offensive actions against Iran except. the United States and Israel. >> But they're not happy with them. >> happy before. No, they've but the the. statements they've put out are some of. the strongest that we've seen. I mean, you know, we've never even seen anything. like. >> seen the Gulf states put out what they.

basically, you know, condemning Iran and. holding it responsible. It It's now any. pretense that there was a rapprochement, there was some sort of a coming together. is is now shattered. And And that's a. setback for whatever's left of the. Islamic Republic. A huge setback. The. the the power that Iran has over the. Middle East is a power of agriculture. All of the countries that we look at, all the oil colluding countries can't. make their own food. Iran makes their. food. So, they've always had this weird. relationship where they disagree with. them politically, they disagree with. them religiously, they disagree with.

them militarily, but they're still. allies because of food. The United. States has sanctions all over Russia. except in one area, space. We still. cooperate with Russia. It's a carve out. because we don't want to lose their. access to the space program. Do you. think we're closer to nuclear war now. because of this action? >> 100%. So, you do you think this has. moved us closer to that? >> 100%. And and I've got like there's. proof of that all over the headlines. today because France is deploying. air-launched nuclear warheads.

Air-launched nuclear warheads. That. means small warheads that fit on the. ends of airplane rockets. They're. deploying them all over Europe. That means France is now taking its. nuclear arsenal and spreading it across. its European allies. The more nuclear. proliferation, the more risk of nuclear. >> have been That's just as much about. Ukraine as it is about. That has nothing to do with Iran. >> What? Yeah. That has nothing to do with. Iran. It happened 2 days after It has it. The threat of nuclear war comes from the.

conflict, in my opinion, comes from the. conflict in Iran from the war in Ukraine. and comes from Russia. Because you have an actual superpower. president who has threatened the use of. nuclear weapons. Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon. So, it's it's not a nuclear threat. You. speak a different nuclear language than. I do. Russia is launching intercontinental. ballistic missiles that can't be. intercepted. It's got the Aresnic. What. the hell is it going to be afraid of a.

warhead on the tip of an airplane? It's not. That's a tactical nuke. That's. a battlefield nuke. >> is your point? My point is that we the. deployment of a nuclear weapon is. nuclear war. The deployment of a nuclear. weapon. If you're talking about. >> on. mutually assured destruction. >> about the use of a nuclear weapon or are. you talking about putting a warhead on a. aircraft? >> No, that's that's been technology for a. long time. Using it in the battlefield. >> You didn't think it's been You think it. is being used in the. >> No, I'm saying it's being deployed. Is.

that getting us closer to nuclear war? Yes. Yes, but but it's not but it's not. is of Iran. It has nothing to do with. Iran. And what are you talking about. being deployed because into you're. talking about France maneuvering where. its weaponry is. >> definition of a deployment. >> That is well, then we're talking about. it. I'm talking about nuclear use. I. mean. the United States deploys its nuclear. forces all the time by President Trump. saying I'm moving our submarines.

which is just talk because they're. moving anyways. It's it's the same as. it's threatening when Putin says I'm. moving at my nuclear or when he tests, you know, Norway by. popping up right offside outside of. their shores. Those are maneuvers that are very. dangerous. I I absolutely agree. >> but in this particular case, has the. even from a Russian perspective, has. this war in Iran increased the. probability that a Putin would use a.

nuclear weapon? >> opinion, absolutely not. No. In my. opinion, no. In my opinion, what it does. to Putin is it makes him say. "Wow, this president. is unpredictable. And to some to an. authoritarian. person like Putin, that's a match for him, not someone for. him. to walk on. And I think that. I'm not I'm not saying that's a great. way for world diplomacy whatsoever. It's.

not diplomacy, it's just you know, it's just strong-arming one another. But. but we are not I do not feel at all that. this situation makes us closer to a. nuclear threat whatsoever. I agree. I think it's a combination of. Ukraine and China's um military. exercises and action in the South China. Sea, and the whole sort of what you. know, what we're not seeing. There's. this argument that China's watching. what's going on with the US and Iran. Here we are depleting our interceptors,

our munitions. China's meanwhile. stockpiling you know, its resources. And. is it Does this put us at a disadvantage. if and when the day comes where China. decides to take proactive aggressive. action vis-a-vis Iran? That's something. to think about, and I think that then. I'm worried about the risk of nuclear. war in that instance. I don't think Iran. by itself in a vacuum is is moving the. needle on that sort of nuclear. risk meter. To your point, what this is. a boon for is the defense contractor. world. It's the military industrial.

complex because. for example, part of or well, Iran is so. weak is because they've used up so many. ballistic missiles. in their conflict with Israel. I I read. today the interceptor to missile ratio, something like 25 to 1. That the. interceptors needed to to to catch these. ballistic missiles that Kuwait, the UAE, Israel is using. They're like upwards of. of 10 15 times more expensive. Yes. Um. and and these drones are relatively. cheaply made, these Shahed drones that. they're using. So, you know, there is.

that aspect of it, too, that Iran can. just fire like a madman all these sort. of. expendable. um munitions, and meanwhile we're. spending three, four, five, 10 times as. much to intercept them. Yes, although. you do see in any kind of conflict like. this, you always see new weapons on the. battle. And and that's what happened. now, and. America actually has been copying the. Shahed drones, these cheap we call them. the Lucas, these cheap systems that can. just go in and you know, cause havoc.

without precision and we deployed them. So, I think this was a I think this is a. long time coming. >> going to interrupt you, Stephen. I I. think this is one of the big questions a. lot of people are asking, which is how. long can Iran fight for in this war? Um. and what does that fight look like? Um. here in these jars, you have I think. it's the relative amount of soldiers. that each country has. Now, obviously. soldiers are just goes back to what. Obama said about horses and bayonets are. one form of. um combat, but I was quite surprised at. how big Iran's military is relative to.

even the US, but other um countries in. the region. I think they have the. biggest military in the region. Is that. correct? >> have to separate between the IRGC and. the national army. They serve two. different functions. >> What are those two things? >> The IRGC, uh which Andy brought up. earlier, so the I stands for Islamic. Revolutionary Guard Corps, not Iranian. What does that mean? It's protecting the. Islamic Revolution. It is an ideological. army that sits outside of the main. structures of power, accountable only to. the supreme leader.

The national army really goes through. the office of the presidency and others. and you know, even though the supreme. leader has a say in it, but the the. army's job is to protect Iran's borders. The IRGC's job is to protect the. revolution and the ideology and the. proxies and everything else that we have. come to know about Iran. So, if we look. at the if we look at those if we look at. what's in the jar, we have to separate. what the national army, which is only. its job is to defend the borders versus. the ideological army. I'm curious what. that would look like if we took out the.

national army and are left with the. ideological force. Iran have the largest. stockpile in the Middle East of. missiles, drones and air defenses, possessing thousands of ballistic cruise. missiles and kamikaze drones. This is. their primary offensive strength. Um and they have quite a significant. defense budget as well. I guess the. question I'm trying to get at is like. how long can they fight for and how does. that fight look over time? Cuz I know. they shot they shot hundreds and. hundreds of ballistic missiles over the. weekend. >> Yeah. Israel claims that in the in the. July in the June war of last year it it. eliminated about half of Iran what it.

believes Iran stockpiles but also. batteries, launchers, basically. capability. So if you whatever it was. let's say they have half of that left. I I've seen a statistic saying that. really they can't go at this rate. Iran for more than two to three weeks. before they're completely depleted. Well, there's also an interesting move. that the United States did well we. didn't kill the supreme leader. What we. did do was send our B-2s. to take out missile underground missile. systems which Iran has. >> Which are the aircrafts, right? No,

they're underground. They actually call. them missile cities. Yeah, they came they came from the. United States. And this is a considerable considerable. damage because. the. two ways in which these sort of rogue. nations whether it's North Korea or Iran. work their missiles is they have them on. what are called road mobile launchers so. that they cannot be tracked and targeted. or they bury them deeply underground. And one of the only things that can take. out those deeply buried missile sites is.

a B-2 and that's what the United States. sent. Sanjay, how how do you think this. plays out over the coming weeks and. months? Because at some point yeah, they. might run out of missiles but that. doesn't necessarily mean the war is. over. I'm presuming that the US don't. want to throw soldiers on the ground. in Iran either. So what how like how. does this play play out and how long? >> And and that's one of the major. strategic errors that we made in. attacking Iran. They have the benefit of. time not us. They can choose how to react, when to. react, in what way to react. We don't.

know if they have a dirty bomb that. they're finishing up in some underground. bunker right now that's just going to. sit there and wait until American boots. on the ground show up. The fact that you. guys think that that current nuclear. deployments have nothing to do with. what's going on Iran it it's I I. want to respect that opinion, but to me it shows just a lack of. military experience and actual strategic. intent to kill. Like when you look at. how. military and intelligence operators are.

trained to think, we are trained to. think through a lens of maximum damage. >> Mhm. Iran is thinking through the same window. right now. And they're watching what we. just did in Afghanistan. Don't forget we. killed Osama bin Laden, who was an. ideological figurehead of Al-Qaeda in. 2011 and didn't leave Afghanistan until. 2022, when we were when we gave up. That's another 11 years of war after the. guy that we were supposed to kill to end. the war. How is. Khamenei is different. Khamenei is.

different. But how different? I don't. know yet. And what are we going to do? The the new leadership in Iran, what's. it going to be? Is it going to be a. leadership that that kowtows to the. United States? That kowtows to to. Israel? Is it going to be another shadow. government like the Shah? Are we going. to place somebody else and the Iranian. people are going to love it? Or are we. leaving a vacuum that China and Russia. are going to step into? And now we're. going to we're going to see a. strengthened Iran that's strengthened by. our largest adversaries in the world. This is the reality of what we've got to. figure out because because the whether.

they launch all their rockets in the. next 2 weeks, that doesn't mean that's. the end of the fight. For all we know. it's going to come back and bite us in 6. months when some Hezbollah cell lights. New York on fire. We don't know. But. when it happens, arguably it's going to be justified. To Andrew's point, Iran can wage a war. of attrition. It's harder A war of. attrition is basically low-level. warfare. Think of like death by a. thousand cuts, right? I'll just keep. poking at you enough to eventually wear. you down, destabilize you, weaken you.

Whereas what you can do is massive. retaliation and these big sort of, you. know, theatrical strikes. War of. attrition is basically grinding for the. long haul and wearing you down. This is. something that to to his point, Iran is. capable of doing and is probably willing. to do and sees as the only way that it. can survive this is a war of attrition. The war it's it's it's whatever remnant. is left. >> That's how Russia has survived so long. It's a war of attrition. But but like. I'm like who's the leader? Do you need a. leader? Or is it just lots of different. pockets of people? Time will tell and. you know, Hezbollah's sort of cells.

around the world will tell us what. happens, but I think another way of. looking at it, I saw a. a. former member of the National Security. Council commenting that like yes, cells. could be activated in America or they. could just fade away. And this is where. I don't have a crystal ball and I'm just. observing what's happening, but I do. think that the that all of this hangs on. the razor's edge of public opinion.

Because. you know, we time will tell whether or. not this regime falls, whether what. you're say if it's either or, but I. don't I don't think that we I don't. think that we can know. I just. >> Haven't we been here before to some. degree? Too many times. Too many times. What is the lesson from history that. everyone seems to have forgotten? That. we are shitty learners of history. That's that's [laughter] what the lesson. is. To to your point of you know, who. the leadership would be, something else. that that philosopher I quoted, Eric. Hoffer had said that you know, mass. movements, they don't need a god, but.

they do need a devil. So, to that. effect, the leader doesn't matter as. much as having an enemy does. That is. the so so basically so long as we, the. United States or the Western world is. framed as the enemy, that is enough to. keep a war of attrition going absent any. figurehead or a charismatic leader. And. he was a religious figure. versus just a political figure. He was a. religious figure. He's But to your. point, he was a racketeer at the end. Yeah. Yeah. I mean he was running I mean. effectively. Yeah. >> And everyone in most people in the.

country knew that. Yeah. Absolutely. Thousands of people have gathered in. public squares in Toronto openly weep. and mourn his death. Roughly 20% of the. population are staunch ideological. supporters of him. Yeah, 20% of 90. million. Yeah. >> And it's interesting because you you one. can imagine that that 20% might grow, especially if the the coming months make. their lives worse in some way. They. experience, I don't know, poverty or. whatever else and and then, you know, friends die because of this war. It. doesn't take long for narrative to turn. and So, that's what everyone's been. warning about. That you strike Iran,

this was the warning last June. You. strike Iran, you're going to get rally. around the flag. The people that are. secularists now are going to turn and. they're going to start supporting the. regime and we're going to set back the. cause of, let's say, freedom or. democracy. It didn't happen. It turns. out that, basically, the people in Iran. blamed the regime for their own for the. misery that was that was um put upon. them. And so, I think that 20% will get. even smaller as a result. Not just of. this. It would have gotten smaller. anyway. As a result of this, I think. it'll get even smaller still because. their salvation is not at the end, you.

know, of a of a of a turban or a robe. It basically comes with liberty and. freedom that this government, this. regime won't give them. And so, that is, I think, evident now to the 80% of. Iranians, all of whom of that mean that, you know, 80 80% of the population is. born after '79. They don't know the old. regime. All they know is this one. And. what they know is they don't like it. They don't like living under it. And. they want anything other than what this. is. You feel differently? I think that. that's an overly idealistic way of. thinking about it. We failed to convert. Iraq when we took out Saddam Hussein. We.

failed to to convert Afghanistan when we. took out the Taliban. >> Iran is not Iraq and Afghanistan, though. It is not. I'm not saying it's. the same. I'm saying that when you when. you change a government from the top. down, that doesn't do anything for the. people. No one's changing it. There's no. nation building. We're not going in and. doing what we did in Iraq. We're not. We're not trying to build a. constitution. >> going to build it? What's going to. change it? The people? The people that. have been slaves for basically the last, what, 40, 50 years? The people who have. had no education? The people who have. been marginalized? You think they're. just going to understand how to how to.

organize themselves? >> Very, very highly. I mean, it's it's one. of the most educated populaces in the. world, and I have and and they are very. the the people that are not regime. supporters are very Western-thinking. I. mean, we see this. We see this in in the. culture they produce, the media they. produce, when they go and they speak. around the world. So, the populace is. there, the capability is there, the will. is there. All they need is basically not. to be you know, not to be facing the. barrel of a gun. >> We're about to find out if that's true. And that is what that is what we are all. writing on right now is whether this.

this intellectual minority. in a poverty-stricken, economically. defunct country is going to even. stay there. Or whether they're going to take their. brains and their success and their. opportunities somewhere else. The the. diaspora and everything we're hearing. says they are the people are cannot. cannot wait to help rebuild the country. >> trust what you're hearing? Well, his. family's there. So, he's probably. he's probably a. >> worse, the worst thing you can do is. trust the people that you have a. personal relationship with. They're the. least objective people that you can talk.

to. >> So, who are their 80% of the population? >> you talk to? Exactly. Who do you trust? You can't trust anything that you're. hearing right now. You can't trust. anything that you're reading right now. The information landscape is too. tumultuous. So, who do you trust? You. have to trust somebody, right? It's not. paranoia. It's healthy. It is absolutely. paranoia to suggest that everything is. misinformation. One would believe, at. least I certainly believe that I have a. faculty up here to be able to take. information and try and discern what.

might be. misinformation and what isn't. And then. also be willing to stand corrected. That's a very important part of it. And. that goes back to my tribal problem is. once you have a horse in the race, and. you become convinced, and I am hearing a little convinced-ness. from you, that you know, then I believe. you lose your ability to be able to go, "Oh, wow, maybe I was wrong. Maybe this". And again, I'm not condoning what the. administration did whatsoever. I'm just. listening to Benjamin and saying that is.

to my eye a much better source. I'm a. journalist. I'm going to listen to what. people on the ground are saying there. Certainly family members because their. opinion is going to be legitimately, you know, heartfelt and not propaganda. >> Again, we speak a completely different. language. When you talk to me about. opinion, heartfelt, and family, and belief, none of those are objective. None of.

those are rebellions are born on those. things by the way. >> And and that that doesn't make it. objectively correct. It was a rebellion. that ended up in the Iran that we just. saw fall apart. That was a revolution. That was a rebellion. Andrew, where does. your skepticism come from? What's it. rooted in? Because you did spend almost. a decade as an undercover spy for the. United States in the CIA. Where where is. the skepticism coming from? Why. shouldn't we believe people on the. ground who are saying what they're. saying? I have seen this stuff. firsthand. I've been trained in how this. stuff works. I've had to deploy this in.

in pursuit of American goals and. ambitions in the past. And and what. you're saying isn't inaccurate. as to how people react. People we just. trust the opinion of the people that we. we trust the opinion of the people we. trust more than we trust the opinion of. others only because it's our opinion. that they're trustworthy at all. So, who. do you trust to get your information. from? I want to take my information from. as as far opposite sources as possible.

and then see where the information. confirms itself, where it correlates. Because if you if you see anti-American. people saying the same thing as. anti-Iranian people, where their. messages are the same, has. corroboration. The number of dead leaders as an. example. This that's a corroborative. point because you're hearing both the. Iranian state media say that and pro-US. Western forces talk about. >> if it's your point a black box and you. can't get information from the sources. you're used to getting from? >> Well, that's it's that's exactly right.

It is a black box. So, if we know it's a black box, we have to. question every source that comes out, every piece of information that comes. out. What we're seeing a lot of right. now with Iran is called circular. reporting. It's one single source of. information that comes out that gets. multiplied over and over again. We're. seeing it happen in the White House, too, because the White House has kicked. out so many journalistic legacy media. outlets. So, now one story gets. multiplied over and over again, and. we're seeing stuff that's that's. repeated. >> I have to say something. I am I am a. little bit skeptical about what is true.

I'm like the furthest from ever being a. conspiracy theorist, but a little bit. skeptical of what's true because. I did a post about this subject. And. obviously I spent 15 years in social. media, so our whole business was. building scaling huge social media. audiences. And what I received in my DMs. was like I've never seen before. About. what? I've heard people talking about bots for. decades, and most of the time that. they're actually they're wrong. It's. something else going on with the. algorithm, or maybe something they don't. like they saw, so they call it a bot. I. received thousands and thousands and.

thousands of DMs when I posted about. this subject matter, and some of those. accounts, when you go on the page and. you look at their posting history, their. engagement, you look at certain. patterns, which we've built tools before. to kind of um spot. Some of these accounts aren't real. And I I said to my friends, I was like, "What the I posted about this. issue." And then I had thousands and. thousands and thousands and thousands of. these accounts DM me encouraging me to. post more about certain things. First. time in my life ever I go, "Oh, that was. definitely It was so atypical.".

>> operation. Okay, so what were they What. were these bots pushing you to post it. on? I'm conscious whether I should say or. not because I don't want to infer By. doing so, you're I'm like inferring that. a particular But I'm just saying I've. never felt. what I experienced then. And I have But. every this trailer will come out, we'll. see loads of bots, we have systems but. this was in my DMs. It was encouraging. someone like me who has a big platform. to push a certain narrative. And the the. the only reason I noticed is because of. the sheer volume and then the narrative.

was almost identical. And I think what? 1,700 different. accounts have all all asking me to do. the same thing. >> So you have final control over the edit. of this. Yeah. So there's no if you. don't if you don't want what you say to. get edited to get to get aired then. it'll get cut but one way or the other. Whatever you say like I I want you to. say what you saw because if the. narrative was anti-Iran. then you were attacked by Western. forces. Western bots attacking a known. Westerner. Mhm. If [clears throat] you. were if you were propped up by.

pro-Iranian. cyber bots then now you're talking about. a cyber capacity a cyber capability in. Iran that nobody's talking about. So one. way or the other you can see. >> or someone else or whatever it might be. I don't know. But I just it made what. it's My point was that it's made me. skeptical about my own information. chamber. And I'll be honest before I realized. what was going on very persuasive. Mhm. Very persuasive. You were persuaded. by the bots before you realized they. were bots. >> things to you and then they're. encouraging you to continue to to push a. certain narrative and it just took took.

me a second to pause and thought. actually maybe wouldn't that be a. perfect strategy in these moments to get. people who have big platforms to just. bomb bomb their DMs and tell them that. you know like why aren't you standing up. for us and please use your voice to. um to speak on this particular issue. And I thought actually maybe I need a I. need my information from somewhere else. Well, I think the point that you're. making which is very important it has to. do with you know memetics or popularity. In other words. what we don't know the outcome of the.

situation yet. We don't know if the. Hezbollah sleeper cells will be. activated. Are they waiting to see whether what. they do will be. welcomed or will be demonized? And I. think that. there's an a profound influence in. social media. And that isn't true in this. administration and and previous. administrations about the rise of. pushing public opinion. I mean that to. your point, that's what you worked on at. the agency or you at least saw happen.

The fact is I'm I'm glad that you're. seeing it for yourself. You can't trust. what you see. First of all, if you're a single. language person, you only see what's in. your language. You don't see what's in a. different language. And then we all have. an echo chamber around us and the the. the fact that we have so much technology. just amplifies our echo chamber. Our our. algorithm sees what we see, it sees what. we like, it sees what we pause longer on. than something else and it gives us more. of that. And people become very wealthy.

and very successful understanding the. behavior that people prefer and you give. people more of what they already prefer. and then it makes them happier and they. don't even realize they're sitting. inside of an echo chamber. So for all of. these reasons, I don't trust the information I see. I. don't trust information unless multiple. sources of conflicting values and. conflicting priorities and conflicting. goals where they say the same thing, I'll give that more credence. And if you. can't get those sources because. information doesn't overlap. >> Then you can't have a conclusion. So you. can have a living assessment but you. can't have a conclusion.

>> operate if you're a foreign policy. decision maker, if you're a president, if you're a national security advisor? You have to give advice and consent. You. have to figure out something. You can't. say I have a lack of evidence or have a. lack of opinion or lack of information. and therefore because I can't cooperate. or verify, there's no Venn diagram of. overlapping views That's when you have. you have to use time as a tool. You have. to use time to to be the tool that you. use to collect more information. If you if you give up time, you give up. one of your most important tools which.

is what we're giving up with this. attack. We're giving up time so that we. can potentially just fit a a calendar. January, February, March. Like that's. why what what did we actually gain? What. How did the United States actually. tangibly benefit. from what just happened in Iran? If the. United States, how did we. >> If in 4 months from now, before the. midterm elections, there is new. leadership in Iran, entirely new. If. there is regime change, in other words, if there is by the president's own.

metrics victory, Okay. will you change. your tune on this this quote of what did. we gain? What if it's not evident right. now? What if it is in 4 months? I know. Yeah, I it's a living assessment. So of. course if for all for all we know the. president's decision is going to work. out. But for all we know it's going to. get worse. For all we know it won't be 4. months, it'll be 4 years of of of a of a. drought and poverty-stricken and. Iranians dying, civilians dying because. they can't find food and water. >> The '79 revolution took 2 years to. happen, really began late '77, and then. you had a sort of reign of terror,

almost like the you know Thermidorian. Robespierre period in early Iranian uh. in the uh early '80s, where it took. really 4 or 5 years for all the dust to. settle. But but uh so the question is do. you want where are my results, right? It's only been 2 days. >> are my What What are we gaining? What do. we even think we're going to gain? What. does What does the United States think. it's going to gain. from from decapitating the Iranian. leadership? >> that's kind of obvious based on what the. president has said. It's that On what. the president has said? >> I'm I'm I'm just saying based on what. the president says. I'm not But if you.

ask what the point was according to the. president cuz he's the one who. authorized the op- operation, it was. putting an end to Iran's nuclear program. and regime change. I mean. >> base it off of what the president said, the nuclear program was obliterated in. June of last year. >> But there's an attempt to reconstitute. it. They were looking to rebuild these. facilities. They have satellite footage. of this. >> Why are you Why are you disregarding. previous narratives to adopt the current. narrative? >> Because if If learned nothing from '79.

is that the previous narratives were. wrong. The assessments were wrong. So, I. don't trust the assessments either. But, there's satellite imagery that shows, oh, there's reconstruction happening at. um Esfahan or Natanz or wherever. We can. see trucks moving. We can see buildings. coming up, right? >> somebody who chose to share that. satellite imagery. Hang on. >> [clears throat]. >> It's impossible. to to practically say, "No, no, no. Iran didn't want a nuclear. weapon. They just wanted to.

have electric power." I mean, nuclear. power. You know, for. That's That's not That's not really not. a plausible. assessment. >> That's what the ODNI put into their. official report. >> explain that they're going beyond 20%. enrichment? Then, why are they doing. that? >> And what they don't need more than 20%. So, why So, how And it's a racket. It. was a racket. It is a racket. And we're. talking about Tulsi Gabbard as a head of. DNI. Which Exactly. Exactly. Which is a. great point. Because she is a Trump. supporter. >> Well, you have not heard from her. Are.

you Are you not. >> Tulsi Gabbard has been a lot of things. in her career. Yeah. But, you Do you do you think there was. any risk of Iran developing ura- uranium. to the point that they could use it as a. nuclear weapon? Because if you look at. the timeline here, Of course. um which. I'll throw up on screen, which is just a. screenshot, by 2021, they were at a. dangerous threshold. Iran begins. enriching uranium to 60% purity, which. is a short technical step away from the. 90% needed for a weapon. And by 2023 to. 2025, we were told that they were. theoretically weeks away from being able. to create a weapon, which is when Trump.

decided to attack. You think that's. false? We only know what we're being. told. And what we're being told isn't even. consistent between what's publicly being. released by our own government and what. we're being told in mainstream media. But, everybody just. There's clearly Is it Is it. false? Is it Is it false? I don't know. I don't know if it's false. >> Well, just look at North Korea if you. want to know if it's false. I mean, I. interviewed Bill Perry, the Secretary of. Defense, who went there and got the. guarantee and the promise from the dear. leader there was no chance they were. going to develop a nuclear weapon.

Fingers crossed behind the back, thermonuclear weapon, and look where we. are now. And so, I think it would be. foolhardy for this administration or any. former administration to think that that. Iran wasn't doing the same thing. >> It has every incentive to do it. If I. were Iran, I would absolutely do you. know, absolutely build one. Because look what it did for North. Korea. We're we're getting lost in the. wrong question. I'm not trying to say that Iran wasn't. creating nuclear weapons. I'm saying. that the official stance of the ODNI was.

that it was not. The official stance. they want you to see. Yeah, to go to. right. Now we're getting Now we're. getting. Now we're getting closer to the same. point. Why would the president say. something different than what the ODNI. is saying to the public? That is a. failure in narrative control. There's an. inconsistency there, and that's the. question. >> on that. We absolutely agree on that, yeah. So, what do you think is actually. going on? I asked you this at the top, but clearly you're pointing at some some. sort of ulterior motive. So, I think what's happening here is that we. are seeing an administration that.

doesn't actually know how to. govern. And they're they're trying to find a way. to grapple back some sense of success in. the face of. overwhelming. contributing failures, economic. failures, alliance failures, power. struggles all over the world. We are we. are seeing a transition to a strongman. multipolar world. When we've only ever. lived in a unipolar world. What's a. strongman multipolar world? It's what.

she was just talking about with Putin. and Russia, right? You When you act in. strong authoritarian ways, and people. respect your authoritarian behaviors by. giving you safety and giving you. security, then that's strongman. diplomacy. >> And why does that matter? What happens. next? Because that's not cooperative. That creates conflict. That creates more. opportunities for conflict, less. opportunities for communication, less. shared common interest, which is a. pathway to more what we call interstate. war, which is conflict between states. Because they're not communicating,

they're not sharing, they're not even. reliant on each other. Therefore, it's. easier for war to break out. I have a. sort of pessimistic thought here. Which is an alternative to the what was. you know, what was hap- what is. happening in Iran right now, which is. what would happen, what could happen, and what might happen in the United. States. And to your point that where you said. this administration doesn't know how to. govern, I would, separate from that, whether. that's true or not, I would say this. administration thinks very.

futuristically about. surveillance systems and systems of. control. And you can see that with ICE. and with Homeland Security. >> [snorts]. >> And my concern would be that. red teaming or round tabling all the. different blow possible blowback, well, what if we have Hezbollah that sleeper. cells, you know, set off a dirty bomb in the. United States or do something. That that. is. in the eyes of some, a perfect. opportunity to create more of a.

surveillance state in the United States, to use. biometric surveillance platforms, ISR, against United States citizens because. it's the only way to control. people and to to really know where the. bad guys are. And that is a concern of. mine. >> So, you Can you Can you be a bit more. explicitly clear that? So, you're saying. that. Well, that you you you In other words, bio sort of I always just look at things. because I.

consider weapon systems a lot and. understand where we have come from, you. know, nuclear weapons are the weapons of. the past. Um. surveillance systems are the weapons of. the present and drones. What's the. weapon systems of the future? I mean, you're there's a with motivation. You. can just look at what happened with. Anthropic and Open AI in the Defense. Department the day before all of this. went down. So, you're saying they're. using this as a way to introduce. surveillance mechanisms potentially on. United States? And I'm I'm not saying. that per se, I'm saying one hypothetical.

scenario that I can see is. red teaming a bad outcome is not. necessarily a bad outcome. Like if there. were a problem in the United States as a. result of this, we could counter that. with. legitimate reasons for more surveillance. systems. Do you think people sit around. and say that kind of thing? >> they do. Really? I mean, I don't think. you can ever forget that the Department. of Homeland Security, which by the way. was like the big issue in the United. States, you know, just a couple weeks. ago. ICE, DHS, Department of Homeland.

Security for those of the younger. generation did not exist before 9/11. It. was an absolute. byproduct of America being attacked. So, you're thinking that this Iranian. situation could give them cover to. track and surveil US citizens more. It. would create a justification. I would. change the word from cover to. opportunity. Because I do think that's the way the. systems work inside the.

you know, executive branch. And I think. that there is a. always. an extremely powerful. hidden hand that has to do with. weapons developers. And this sets us up for a false. dichotomy. It's basically you can have. security or liberty, you can't have. both. So, which one do you want? You're biting your tongue there a little. bit. No, he's 100% right. And and the. the. the consternation that I'm feeling about. this whole situation is really tied to.

the fact that we had a chance to not. exacerbate. the security situation of our planet. by just not attacking Iran. We could. have not exacerbated the security. conflict for every other country. Only. Iran was struggling with their own. decision about what they were going to. do with themselves. Now, we have put dozens of countries at risk, active current risk, near-term risk. There are people dead today that would. not have been dead had we not sent bombs.

into Iran. There has been property. damage. There are markets damaged. There. are life height like livelihoods are. being damaged. There are 30,000 dead. today who wouldn't have been dead if. we'd done this in 1980. >> You're never going to hear me say that I. really care that much about an Iranian. life compared to an American life. That's just not how I roll. This is my. priority. This is my citizenship. I. don't I don't begrudge you that, by the. way. I I totally And it's not that my. loyalty is elsewhere, but I'm saying. you're now saying there are people that. are dead. You're talking about the four. Americans. You're talking about uh Arab.

citizens of the various cities around. the. >> Absolutely the four Americans, but also. the Arab cities, right? And And if we. want to like the. when we start counting death toll, Mhm. we start to lose sight of the fact that. we all have to live in a prioritized. world. It's like we talk about the. 30,000 dead Iranians. We We haven't said. anything about the Palestinians that. died in Gaza, right? There's a life A. life is a life. Practically speaking, a. life is equal. A life is a life. It's a. tragedy to lose any human being, but you. still have to prioritize that on top of. another. >> So, can we interchange them with the.

four potential lives that were lost as a. result of the Austin shooting that. happened yesterday? Sure. Uh an American life that's lost is an. American life that's lost. And the. priority should be on protecting. American life. >> Including protecting Americans from. themselves? Absolutely. That's one thing. that we're not resourcing right now. because our resources are going. somewhere else. Which is my point about, I think, you know, the real place to look at this. is is is surveillance in the United. States. >> Surveillance in the United States is is. 100% a guaranteed future. Mass.

surveillance has already happened. It. will It will just get exacerbated, expanded, and legalized. It's already. there. It's just the government has to buy. their data from your Apple phone. They. can't just pull it on their own. >> it's probably worth introducing the. Anthropic piece here just because some. people won't have context. Um in July. 2025, Anthropic, who are a big AI. company, one of the biggest in the. world, the most exciting in the world, and one of the most advanced in the. world, signed a $200 million deal to. build AI tools for US national security. Um in February 2026, which was last.

month, the Pentagon demanded Anthropic's. AI be available for all military. purposes, but Anthropic refused to allow. autonomous weapons or mass surveillance. of American citizens. This dispute. started after the US military used. Claude. um in its raid to capture Claude, which. is a tool made by Anthropic, an AI tool. made by Anthropic. They used Claude in a. raid to capture Venezuelan President. Nicola Nicolas Maduro in January, um which Anthropic said violated its. terms of use. The Defense Secretary Pete.

Hegseth threatened to cancel the. contract and brand Anthropic a supply. chain risk unless it dropped its safety. restrictions and stopped telling the US. how to use Anthropic's AI. And that. started a big conversation which is. raging raging online around mass. surveillance, which is one of the things. Anthropic said it didn't want America. using with its AI. I mean, I think. it's a convenient narrative to position. one giant AI company as somehow moral. because it went up against the Defense.

Department and another one not because. it didn't because like you said in. there, Anthropic was part and parcel to. the Maduro raid. So, I don't I don't. believe that corporations, certainly AI. corporations, you know, are sitting around with a. violin for Americans surveillance. I. just don't I mean, Americans sort of. general well-being. I think that. >> altruistic. >> No, of course not. And I think that. narrative is dangerous. I think there. was a research piece done by King's. College in London where they ran.

simulations on Cold War style war games. using chat GPT, Claude, and Gemini, which are three AI tools. Each played. the leader of a nuclear armed. superpower, and in every single. simulation, at least one of the AI. models escalated the crisis by. threatening to use nuclear weapons. Claude, which is owned by Anthropic, recommended nuclear strikes in 64% of. games, which was the highest rate among. all three of those AI models, but. stopped short of advocating for a full. strategic nuclear exchange or nuclear. war. Bingo. Wasn't that the plot of the work.

movie WarGames in the 1980s? Bingo. I mean, that's Skynet. And so, these are major concerns. Um many of our. former generals who were heads of. um you know, cyber and NSA are on the. boards of these companies. I've had. conversations with a number of them. about this. I think smart people are. and and and learned people are on are. aware of like this is a absolute. cliffhanger precipice.

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cometeer.com/steven. We have finally caved in. So many of you. have asked us if we could bundle the. conversation cards with the 1% diary. For those of you that don't know, every. single time a guest sits here with me in. the chair, they leave a question in the. Diary of a CEO, and then I ask that. question to the next guest. We don't. release those questions in any. environment other than on these. incredible conversation cards. These. have become a fantastic tool for people. in relationships, people in teams, in. big corporations, and also family.

members to connect with each other. With. that, we also have the 1% diary, which. is this incredible tool to change habits. in your life. So many of you have asked. if it was possible to buy both at the. same time, especially people in big. companies. So what we've done is we've. bundled them together, and you can buy. both at the same time. And if you want. to drive connection and instill habit. change in your company, head to the. diary.com to inquire, and our team will. be in touch. What is your most likely. scenario that would lead to. a nuclear war? Like cuz you you wrote.

the book on this stuff that, you know, you're you're you're the person. everybody thinks of when we think about. the scenario that nuclear war could. break out. Of all the potential routes. there, which one do you think is the. most likely? I do think that North Korea is very. dangerous. I think. Putin is I would have told you 5 years. ago that Putin would, you know, he's an. former intelligence officer. He's. familiar with history. He He knows. better, and now I would I have a changed. opinion about that. I think it's very. dangerous, and I think that.

he, you know, his use of the Arashnik. was sort of like a. like that that was a ballistic missile. that is capable of carrying a nuclear. warhead. There wasn't a nuclear warhead. in it. He did notify the State. Department prior to the launch of that, you know, 30 minutes prior. But that's. like incredibly dangerous. So. everything is dangerous. Any. nuclear-armed nation that. that, know, threatens nuclear weapons is. dangerous. But AI is its own. extraordinary. level of danger and the article that you.

wrote speaks to that. Now, my. understanding is. currently everybody knows that, you. know, air quotes, and then when you. learn, when I learned about the. Department of War Anthropic AI late at. night battle over using AI in these. systems, I was I was surprised. >> Why? Because I thought there was more. restraint on that and what I see in this. administration. >> Yes.

And to see sort of the the same bravado. that we do agree on is coming out of. this administration. about exerting power, about um just. being able to do a decapitation strike. effectively. using AI, I I go, "Wow, that is not what. I expected." The interesting thing with. Trump generally is that. he has a reputation of saying and doing. things that at one point we would have. all gone, "Oh my god." But we've almost.

become so used to these things that. there's almost a desensitization to some. degree. >> Shattering of norms, they call it, right? >> He also contradicts himself. I mean, that's not even a I mean, he's spoken on. the record about how I mean, I think he. put out a video in 2011. I might be. wrong on the date, like attacking Obama. for, you know, and saying that he was. going to attack Iran. >> 20 In 2013, there's there's a there's a. tweet that he posted saying "Attacking. Iran is showing that you failed at. negotiations" and, you know, something.

to that effect, right? >> here we are talking about how important. it is to change your mind. Maybe if. you're not the Maybe not if you're the. president of the United States. I think. the slippery slope is is so gradual that. sometimes you don't see where you're. you're heading towards. And in terms of. sort of military action and the use of. AI and all these things and autonomous. weapons, it we feel like we're going. down a slippery slope here. >> Yes. In a way that I haven't felt for. the other 33 years of my life as it. relates to geopolitics and war. And also. generally, when you think about some of. the actions that and speeches at Davos. where the. US leaders were saying to the Europeans, "Listen, you guys are weak now. And we.

It was sounded to me saying like you. guys are weak. Get your together. Figure out your energy situation. We. don't need you anymore. Listen, we're. not going to We're going to run this. now." And this whole idea of special. relationship, blah blah blah, it seems. to have gone out the window. So, you've. got an emboldened United States military. and leadership who seem to be able to do. what the they want. If you don't. let us use your air how we wish, we'll. smash your company. We'll take away that. $200 million contract and we'll cut you. off from the rest of the supply chain. And we get used to it. You know, we hear. the head and go, "Oh, that's crazy.". Then and then we kind of get. desensitized again as humans do.

But the direction of travel is something. sometimes what you want to look at. Mhm. Yeah. Versus just this this sort of. static state of where we are. That's the. concern. I think you have hit the nail. on the head with that. I agree. I think. you've got I think you've got a much. clearer picture than most, Stephen, on. what's going on here. The United States. it has to pursue AI far more. aggressively than what. what the what the CEOs of these. companies want. I actually do believe. there's quite a bit of altruism in the.

CEOs and the founders of these AIs. They. didn't create these AIs so they could be. warmongers. They created these AIs for. some. techy, beautiful vision of some utopian. future. >> That's like saying Zuckerberg didn't. create Facebook for to to to cause teens. to feel better. >> about themselves. He created it for. people to connect. >> else, exactly. >> Right. >> But look what happens. That's Yeah, unintended consequences. >> Yeah. So, regardless of what the United. States' opinion is about AI, it also has to very realistically look. at how China is developing AI. And China.

is already 10 x more aggressive than the. United States is. And if they crack the. code on certain types of AI like like. artificial general intelligence or. recursive. uh self-improvement, if it breaks the. code on these first, it's an exponential head start over the. United States. And all of their AI, everything that we have some sort of. reticence about using automated or. autonomous weapons, mass surveillance, China's already using. So, the the number one strategic priority.

consistently in all documentation is. China. So, the United States has to. aggressively pursue AI. It I I. understand that mindset. It is. absolutely ludicrous to think that one. day an AI helps us take that leader of. Venezuela, and then the next day we. claim it's a supply chain risk. That's. just That's the kind of lunacy that we. live in every day. >> good point. But But the my my bottom. line concern here is that the United. States used to be the leader of the free. world. We're not a leader of the world. at all. We're adopting more autocratic.

behaviors because we're seeing other. countries succeed with autocratic. behaviors. And we're abandoning Europe, which is the only place left trying to. say that democracy still counts. Like we. are We are not leading anymore. We are. mimicking. We are reacting. We are. petulant, but we are not leading. I'm. still thinking about your doomsday. scenario with a deathbed Vladimir Putin. and what he might do. Is that like realistic? Is it realistic? You know, it's like. from hell's heart I stabbed at thee. I.

mean, it it it. I don't know what's realistic anymore. I. Again, these these norms that are. shattered, these restraints, these these. guardrails that we think No, a leader. wouldn't do this or someone wouldn't do. that. I'm beginning to question all of. it, too. Um I don't know anymore what. what someone is or isn't capable of. And. I think. human have a discomfort with cognitive. dissonance where, you know, holding two. opposing viewpoints at once. We've. gotten, I think, worse at it. evolutionary over over time. And our. politicians are the worst yet or our.

world leaders are are the worst at it. yet. And so, that's a cause of concern. for me. I always think like what has. someone got to lose and what have they. got to gain? And if you've got a couple. of days left of your life or couple of. days left in office and you're I don't. know, Trump's going to be what, 83 by. the time he gets out of office or. something? Yeah, why does he care if he. pushes a button and does whatever? At. which point. Yeah, you know. And the same with Putin, at some point he's going to be old and. he's going to have a couple of, you. know, couple of weeks left in his life. and he's going to be reflecting on his. legacy and he's got nothing to lose. Trump's got nothing to lose with he. there's no second term. Well,

>> [laughter]. >> Well, he he I was watching the other day. taking great admiration to the fact that. Zelenskyy can't be they can't be. elections in Ukraine because there's a. war going on and I think he cracked a. joke saying that he would kind of like. that but if there was a US war going on. then they wouldn't be elections. And I. it sounded like a joke. But a lot of things have sounded like. jokes before. >> [laughter]. >> that he said, so. What is your um what do you think. happens next? And also I I wanted to get.

your take on you know, we've got this. map here which shows where Iran can. strike with their missiles. I've got. friends in Dubai. Never in my life did I think bombs would. be dropping on Dubai or any strikes or. drones would be happening in Dubai. And. one of my best friends was in a in the. basement in a bunker the two nights ago. because of what's going on. That whole. region has been hit. The Dubai airport. has been hit. Saudi Arabia has been hit. Um Bahrain's been hit. What does this do? Qatar's been hit. What does this do to the region and why. are Iran hitting these places?

So, this is part of the burden sharing. strategy that the United States military. doctrine isn't put put in place. And I. think to a certain extent all of the. region already knew they were on Iran's. radar. They they've all had this weird. hostile. collaborative relationship with Iran out. of necessity because Iran is the. breadbasket [clears throat] of the. Middle East. So, they've known that. there's always the risk. But I don't. think they ever took that that. particular risk seriously. >> Why are Iran Iran doing it? Yeah. Why do. they care about.

messing up Dubai or making people in. Dubai scared. >> They are lowering the pain threshold. The deputy foreign minister said, "We. can't strike Americans in America. We can maybe strike Americans at their. bases in these Arab states, and we can. also strike the states that are that are. hosting Americans, American civilians, American military, American contractors, you name it. They're all complicit, and. it's lashing out. Because what happens. is if you make it miserable for. everybody, then United States is. pressured to bring this to an end.". Okay. [clears throat] So, they can.

>> What does Iran have to lose? To to back. to your sort of doomsday scenario, they're about to be destroyed anyway. What do they have to lose? They're going. to take everyone down with them, because. only if that threat is real, will the. United States say, "Okay, you know what? We're going to pause and see if we can. get back to diplomacy." And it might. work. Mhm. Mhm. If the Arab states, you know, decide that okay, we're not going to. sustain this, we're not going to fight. back, we need this to end. United. States, you have to stop what you're. doing. So, we could see a lot of the. conflict actually taking place in some. of these neighboring countries, terrorist attacks, et cetera. It's. working.

It's working. It's causing pain to these. sort of peripheral countries that are. not central to this conflict. And look. what the United States has done, arguably, right? >> Yeah. And one of the unintended, well, maybe intended consequences is, if I. turn on the news in the UK right now, the narrative is that this region, Dubai, all of these places, Abu Dhabi, it's all unsafe. And what that means is. they're showing that Sky News are going. up to families in Dubai and going, "How. are you feeling?" And they're going, "I'm stuck. I just want to get home.". And this region has spent a lot of money. building their reputation over the last.

couple of decades. Their tourist. economy. And this is going to even if. the war was to stop today, there'll be a. big cohort of people that choose not to. go there on holiday and choose not to go. and relocate there. And that will reverberate. Um. one could argue that it's actually in, you know, this narrative that the Middle. East is unsafe, one could argue that. that's actually in the interest of. the UK and It's going to drive. [clears throat] down the price of real. estate. Yeah. Yeah, and drive up our tax receipts. Because we have a lot of I think it's.

the biggest place that UK taxpayers have. gone to and millionaires have gone to is. this region. So, did you have any thoughts on that? >> No, you're not I don't think you're. wrong. I think that there's whether or. not. I I don't believe that Western countries. want to see death and destruction in the. Middle East. I don't believe that. Um I. do think that when they plan for. blowback, they account for that and they. try to make the best opportunity out of. the blowback that they already expect. And that does make sense. Um but at the at the end of the day,

Iran has to do something to react. And. it knows it can't just send all of its. rockets at the fleet that's off the. coast of Oman because the fleet that's. off the coast of Oman is going to be. able to intercept most of those rockets. So, if they want some kind of effective. response, the most effective response they can. have is to share the pain and create. some sort of international resistance. against what the United States has done. >> How long do you think this goes on for, Andrew, if you had to guess? If I had to. guess, I would say that there's going to. be an active hot conflict with Iran that. lasts a few weeks. Hot conflict meaning.

every day we wake up and we see new. rockets being launched and new new. attacks, new new air sorties being. launched. But but the actual. reverberations of this from Hezbollah, from Hamas, from the Houthis, from. whatever loyal stanchion still exists in. Iran, we could see that for years. There. There's no guarantee that Iran's going. to bounce back from this in a better. place. I hope it will, but hope is not. the same thing as reality. Hope is just. hope. I hope that it will, but in the.

vacuum, we could see the biggest. adversaries to the United States flood. in and support Iran like the biggest. adversaries in the world flooded in and. support Afghanistan. We might see that. we have even less influence over the. region in the future than we do now. Is. there some an issue of the destruction. this is causing to what's going on in. Ukraine and in other parts of the world. where there was already conflict and. there was already turmoil? Like are. people now not going to pay attention to. Ukraine? So that that gives Putin some. cover to be more aggressive there and It. absolutely emboldens every authoritarian. ruler out there. Because now they've.

it's been it's validating to them that. they're not actually doing anything. wrong. If the president of the United. States can do it, then certainly the. Putin can do it and Xi Jinping can do it. and and any warlord in Africa can do it. It's certainly it's allowed. Or on the. flip side, it's showing that if you act. outside of international norms. that the United States president will. not hesitate to decapitate your entire. leadership, which is something maybe we. didn't think was conceivable a couple. weeks ago. So there's that inverse. message. >> Is it conceivable that both might occur? Yeah. Yes, both can be true.

>> absolutely. It sounds to me like that. might be the most likely outcome that. you're probably going to go one of. either ways. You know, China might just. say now's a good time to get Taiwan. because I mean I mean, objectively. speaking, people are distracted. >> And it's a perfect time for someone to. try to assassinate the president. But. then Cuba might say, you know, if I can. get away with it, I'll behave. >> exactly. Because look what happens if we. don't. What do you think I mean in this. subjective, what happens next and what's. likely? I mean, I'm. To that end, I would say how fascinating. is it that what happened with Maduro in. January still shocks me. 150.

paramilitary or military and. intelligence officers go in, grab. the sovereign leader and his wife in a. heavily fortified military base, take out his. you know, guardsmen who are actually. Cuban. I mean, there's just so many. things to unpack in what I just said. about what just happened. And yet. that's just old news.

That and that to me is. more interesting than what might happen. in the future. Not be because I'll I'm. I can I can try and wrap my head around. the past, but I can't predict the. future. But I am I do believe they they. correlate with one another and only. after time, you know, it's the old. hindsight is is is 20/20. It will makes. how.

Iran unfolds, you know, maybe we'll get the band back. together in 5 months and have a. discussion and we'll all be wrong. I I. don't know. Separate question, but do you think. Trump's going to leave office? I mean, the Constitution says he is. Do. you think he will? The Constitution says. he is. But do you think he will? >> [laughter]. >> I don't have a crystal ball. Do you. think he'll leave office? I do. Do you. think he'll leave office? >> I do. You do. I have more confidence. after last week's um. learning resources Supreme Court opinion.

that we saw two justices who Trump. appointed who basically defied a policy. that was the signature of his of his. second term, you know, his campaign, his. his tariffs and saying that you don't. have that power. I was emboldened. I I would have been. more pessimistic, but after seeing that, I it gave me a little bit more hope that. that that there is still sort of. guardrails and separation of powers is. still a thing. What do you think happens. next in the region? I'm with Andrew. I. think 3 to 4 weeks is the timeline I see. for the actual kinetic war and then.

after that um. every one of these Iranian leaders, whoever's left, whoever steps in and. fills the role of a whether it's a. military junta that takes over, whether. it's a symbolic supreme leader, these. are all marked men. They're all going to. be targeted for assassination. By who? By who? By Israel, by prime minister, by. pretty much anybody that considers um. them enemies. Even maybe not some of the. Arab states for that matter. At the end. of the day, uh it doesn't pay to be uh a political. or religious figure in Iran. So, at this. point I think what we're going to see in.

the months to come is a slow fracturing. of that support and I not surprised if. we start seeing defections from the IRGC. and people just like we saw during 1979. saying, you know what? It's not worth. it. There's nothing There's no there's. no long-term gain here. Because this regime has lost any. credibility domestically. There's none. left, zero. And it's losing credibility. in the region. It violated an unspoken. agreement with its Arab neighbors that. they don't directly fight each other in. this way. And its allies, so-called. allies, have abandoned it. It has nothing left. So, when you have.

nothing left, what is there to fight. for? That's why, but that's going to. take a few months, up to a year, to play. out. What is the most important thing that we. should have talked about that we didn't. talk about around. as it relates to all of the stuff we. talked about today? I think for me. what I'm always, what I always come back. to, is what is the future for the. average American. What does it look like. for us? I'm not sure how this plays out. I'm not. sure that we improve the state of the. average American very much in the last.

few days. I don't know that we will see. much improvement in the next few weeks. I don't know that we will see much. improvement in the next few years. Um, because of what actions we took in Iran, but I do confirm, I agree with what the. other two have said, like the United. States administration has shown it's. powerful in Venezuela, it's powerful in. uh, in Iran. Cuba's already being more than whispered. about as the next. the next transition in government. How, how much chaos are we going to see.

to the existing world establishment. before Trump then leaves office and. somebody else has to come in and pick up. the mess. And I've always been concerned. not about Donald Trump, but about who. comes after Donald Trump. Why? Because. if Donald Trump paves the way for this. authoritarian type of shift, and if he. has support through his final days in. office, then whoever comes next will. have even more legitimacy to come in. with a strong hand from the beginning. And potentially a world where only. authoritarian actions.

work. And that just continues to take us. down a road of pain. I've been talking. to you about this for the better part of. 3 years, that I believe the United I. believe the world and especially the. United States is is coming into one of. its darkest decades ever. This is the world that we live in now. A. world where it's not unipolar, a world. of AI technologies we can't predict, of. conflict that we can't anticipate, of. mass surveillance, of of. the breaking of international norms. This is the world we are coming into.

now. It's the world that our children. are going to be developed in. It's the. world that one day they will have to. create their own future in and and our. grandchildren will inherit whatever is. left of it after that. It's it's sad to me to see that this is. where we are and unless we take some. sort of responsibility for our own. future, we will keep following this. authoritarian trend. But isn't this. better than the past? I would say no. A unipolar world where the United States. is the supreme power, as an American, that is a better world. But at least you.

won't die of dysentery out in the. wilderness, right? Yeah, I mean, that's. kind of what people say, right? They. say, well, babies aren't dying anymore. at childbirth and you know, people less. people are struggling with poverty, so. so it's a better depends what metric. you're measuring, I guess, but. on. on that point of the transition after. Trump leaves, would it be worse if a. weak leader came in? Because I'm I'm wondering, look, we know. Putin's still going to be there. We know. a lot of these other powers are still. going to be there.

Biden didn't strike me as the. the scariest guy in the world. The most the the toughest guy in the. world. Didn't strike me as the toughest. guy in the world. So, if another figure. like Biden came into power after Trump, once with that war raging over there and. with, you know, China um. thinking about Taiwan, etc., is that not. even more dangerous? I think there's a difference between a. strong leader and a strong arm. A strong leader can chart a path, keep a. vision, make hard decisions, balance. priorities, keep people focused. Where a.

strong arm is out to win. And Donald Trump. his entire career, he's been the man. who's out to win. Again, I don't think this is a Trump. issue. I don't think this is a Trump. problem. I don't think Donald Trump is. some villain of the world. I just think. Donald Trump is the manifestation of how. most Americans felt at the time that. they elected him, which was like, we. want to win. And now. we're realizing that 2 years after the. second time that we wanted to win, there.

are other secondary consequences that we. hadn't considered. And that's why so. many of the kind of groups that. supported Donald Trump have changed. flavor about him. It's why his approval. rating is so low, because he's found a. way to ostracize so many of the groups. that used to support him because they. didn't realize that he was more complex. than what they had originally thought. back in that November booth. Annie, most important thing we should. have talked about that we didn't? I'm going to pick up on Andrew's. thought about a strong leader versus a.

strong arm, because it's so important to. think about moving forward. And is that. even possible, you know? Yes, we. absolutely cannot have a weak leader. I. mean, look what happened with Putin. moving into Ukraine, taking Ukraine, attacking Ukraine. And I I. I think that, you know, who wants to be. president? There's also this idea of you. you know, you look at the records of how. people. say come into office, how they how they. campaign saying what they are I'm going.

to get rid of these dangerous nuclear. policies. I'm going They have all kinds. of optimistic ideas about things. And. then something happens in that first. briefing. Something none of us know. It's so mysterious. And they never talk. about. And then their policies and their. their perspective deeply changes. And I. think people move from an idea that they. can be a strong leader to the idea that. they have to be a strong arm. And I. think that's. that's deeply depressing to me. And I am.

an eternal optimist, so I want to see. that change. For some people, like being. made aware of the real threats that they. face, that the US faces, and suddenly. what was, I don't know, theoretical. becomes. very real. Perhaps. And so the I who loves. narrative, the question is what is that. narrative? And anything that is kept. absolutely secret, I want to know about. And I I no one knows that answer. No. president has ever spoken of it.

So what is that narrative? What are they. told? It's definitely not aliens. >> [laughter]. >> It's a conversation for another time. Benjamin? Um here, right here. Taiwan. So I've been working on a. simulation, a war game, that looks at. something that's come up in the news. now. What happens if we don't need China. to invade Taiwan, we need China to just. blockade and completely cut off 90% of. the chips and microprocessors and and um. all the things we need in this AI age.

into the West. What the hell do we do. under that scenario? We don't have the. infrastructure, the capacity, the. resources to bring everything back. online that we need to to fabricate and. make these chips. Um we talked about. China a bit, but I'm really worried. about this. What happens here? Is so. because we rely so much on that little. island. Um and we don't need it invaded, we just. need it blockaded. Kind of So what we. see in the Straits of Hormuz happening. right now, 20% of the world's oil, OPEC can increase production, it'll take. a few weeks to bring it offline, stabilize the markets. We don't have.

that luxury here. Not when it comes to the very things. that powers the next generation of. warfare and diplomacy and. economic development. >> I don't think the average person. realizes how much the West relies on. that little island. >> 90% of our at least here in the United. States, 90% as I understand it, that. comes from. from the from that one island. All the. chips that are in all are the electrical. devices. >> Mhm. Why don't they just move it over here? They're trying. >> They're trying. They're trying, right? >> It takes years.

>> It takes years to get it cleared. It's. very environmentally damaging. The. infrastructure takes time. The expertise. isn't here. All the IP that's on that. island comes from the United States. But. the actual factories have been there and. will be there. >> I guess there'll be a big labor cost. impact as well. Absolutely. Regulations, all kinds of things we have to work our. way around and figure out how And then, you know, training the workers to be. able to fabricate them, do it as. efficiently, yield um you know, results that are that. are high enough. So, that's your. concern. Huge concern. I I I mean, our.

communications could shut down. Our cars. could I mean, so many things can go. wrong if we lose the capacity to power. the devices that we need. What advice would you guys give? This is. my last question, I promise. What advice. would you give to the average person? You know, cuz we we've talked. theoretically about geopolitics. And the. average person sat at home can't do a. lot about that. But if you were to give. advice to the average person who's. thinking about their family, about their. future, about their work, what would you say? We are not helpless. It's not out of our control.

But we do have to assert our control. There is a midterm election that could. effectively. quasi effectively block the decisions. that the president can make. unilaterally. If. if we exercise our right to vote, we. create either a blue Senate or a blue. House of Representatives. Arguably, we have demonstrated our. ability to exercise our right to vote. and taken back some semblance of control. in our country.

>> [snorts]. >> But unfortunately, I think people don't. like waiting. They don't like taking. 7 months before they can take an action. They want to do something right now. And. And we live in a country in a democratic. process where we get a chance to. exercise our power. every 2 years. So, we have to actually. show up and exercise that power. >> What are you doing for you and your. family? We're leaving the United States. Why? Because the United States is not going. in the direction. that I believe is the most conducive to.

the kind of citizen that I want to build. in my children. I don't want my children to grow up in a. country that is either afraid or angry. I don't want my children to grow up in a. country that's constantly compromising. its own democratic principles. I don't. want to raise my kids in a country that. puts capitalism before all other things. I want my children to grow up as global. citizens, to recognize that we're all. interconnected, to value every human. life. I wasn't given the privilege. I. was the perfect candidate to sit here. and tell you that American lives are.

more valuable than everybody else. That's not what I want to pass to my. children. I want my children to look at. lives around the world as valuable, independent individual blessings. And I. can try to teach them that, but that's. not the message that they get. So, where. are you going to go? That's for me to know and Costa Rica. >> [laughter]. >> Absolutely, read as much as you can. across [clears throat] the broadest. spectrum that you can find. And have. conversations about what you think you.

know and what you want to know with as. many people as you can across the. broadest spectrum you can. And don't be. afraid to have a little bit of friction. like we had here today. Mhm. There's. that that's the way it works and that's. how the mind stays fluid and flexible. and you can always realize that you're. wrong. Amen. I think that's increasingly. important in an age of um. misinformation, disinformation is to be. able to have conversations like we had. today where you have an opinion, but.

you're open-minded to listen. And um. something that I I think is increasingly. important, but in increasingly rare. Um even as a podcaster, you're kind of. forced to fit somewhere. You're pushed. to be on the right or pushed to be on. the left, or pushed to believe this, or. pushed to believe that. And it takes, especially in the modern world with. algorithms hitting you every day, it. takes some restraint and thoughtfulness. to try and remain open. Um so, I I love that message, and I hope. for our audience that are listening, I. hope that that's what they do as well. Like, even if they don't like the guest. we have on the show, or they have a. different of opinion, I hope you can at.

least bring yourself to listen and fight. the the cognitive dissonance, which is. very natural in human instinct, >> Yeah. to to hear them out and to allow. those ideas to clash with your own to. arrive at your own conclusions. Benjamin. I'm going to echo a lot of. what Annie said. Um stay curious. Mhm. >> podcasts like yours, and I think others. do a great job of exposing people to. different things they didn't think of. So, continue to feed that curiosity. Um. and cognitive dissonance is. uncomfortable, but it is a good thing. cuz it forces us to think of opinions. that we wouldn't otherwise. And I try to.

teach my students the power of uh. empathy, which basically means you don't. have to like the other side, you can. hate the other side, but just see the. world as they see it for a moment before. you do. Mhm. So, I think empathy's. [clears throat]. critical. Where do we find more of you. about, Benjamin? Someone's Um I mean, um. for me, it's it's I'm building out ways. to be able to find more of it, but um on. on socials, on X and on Instagram, I try. to post as often as I can, and I give. talks when I can. You You haven't. written a book yet? Not yet. I'm I'm. designing a simulation platform, that's.

sort of my work product, but it's not. available to the masses yet. And Annie? Where books are sold. I mean, you've got. a lot of them. >> Mhm. But you write fantastic books. Um. any particular one you would like people. to read? Start at the beginning. Okay. I'm going to Or start at the end. The. Annie anthology. I'll [clears throat]. link them all below in the description. so people can find them. Um and Andrew? You can find me at everydayspy.com, the. business that I own. You can find me. everywhere at uh as my name, Andrew. Bustamante, and uh and yeah. YouTube,

and you've written this great book, Shadow Cell, which has been a smash hit. New York. Times best seller, wasn't it? >> Yes, sir. It was. Uh and this is I mean, we talked about this in our last. episode, but uh. took a long time to get this book. declassified, I believe, and get. permission from the CIA to release it. And it's a fascinating story of um. uncovering a mole within. the CIA, which is fascinating. So, thank. you again of all of you for getting. together and demystifying a lot of this. stuff for me. It's helped me to build my. own perspective on what's going on in. the world. And um. I uh I hope we can have you all back. again soon once we figure out what. actually happens. So,

thank you so much. I appreciate it a. lot. Thank you. >> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm. where they know exactly what video you. would like to watch next based on AI and. all of your viewing behavior. And the. algorithm says that this video is the. perfect video for you. It's different. for everybody looking right now. Check. this video out. I bet you you might love. it.