The Investing & Crypto Expert: "We Only Have 6 Years Until Everything Changes!" - Raoul Pal

We've got about 6 years before. everything changes, and we thought the. money in the bank was safe. We thought. our house was safe, but none of that's. true. And the moment you put your money. and your savings in the bank, you don't own anything. And your future. self is getting poorer by 11% every. year. And that's a problem for financial. security and wealth creation. But I know. where the opportunities lie and I've got. answers. So, could you explain it to me through. the context of this? Okay. So, Raoul Pal. is one of the most influential voices in. the ever-changing world of modern. finance. Unpacking the secrets of crypto.

and how to build wealth in an uncertain. future. People know their futures. They. can't afford to buy a house. They have. less savings, debts from university. People in their 30s are the first. generation that won't be as rich as. their parents. So, what advice would you give to set. myself up for wealth in the future? You. start investing. But what about the people that no matter. how hard they work, they still don't. have that excess income to invest? You don't need huge savings. You just. need to understand how to look for. opportunities. For example, the S&P 500. is not worth your time. Real estate. doesn't really make you any money. Those. days are gone. Gold actually lost you.

money, but investing in crypto, like. Bitcoin, gives us stupidly high returns. in short periods of time, growing at. 150% a year, scaling at twice the speed. of the internet. So, now the guy with. $500 can get rich. I have a question. here then. So, if I'm now at 30 years. oldish, have I missed the boat? No. Much of the reason why I think. people don't invest in crypto is they've. heard stories where people have put too. much in and they've lost it all. So, what if you're wrong? We're going to. talk about how not to [ __ ] it up. And. then, how do I invest in crypto? It's really simple. You're going to. start somewhere. So,

do that and you'll make money. This has always blown my mind a little. bit. 53% of you that listen to this show. regularly haven't yet subscribed to this. show. So, could I ask you for a favor. before we start? If you like the show. and you like what we do here and you. want to support us, the free simple way. that you can do just that is by hitting. the subscribe button. And my commitment. to you is if you do that, then I'll do. everything in my power, me and my team, to make sure that this show is better. for you every single week. We'll listen. to your feedback, we'll find the guests. that you want me to speak to, and we'll.

continue to do what we do. Thank you so. much. Raoul, from a very high-level perspective, and I'm being unspecific here, so I'm. looking for an unspecific answer. What. exactly is the mission that you're on in. this season of your life? Like what are. you doing and who are you doing it for? Hm. So, obviously, you do it for yourself. But, really, I think that. I've been armed with tools and knowledge.

over the years, my 30-year career, that. I kind of have a decent sense of where. the world is going, where the opportunities lie and where. the risk lies for people. And I can see. the problems people are facing, and I. think I've got answers. So, what I want to do is help as many. people as possible. in that journey. And why that happened to me. was I was in Spain back in 2012, and also during the financial crisis.

2008. And I was writing macroeconomic research. for my research service Global Macro. Investor, and I had seen it coming. I predicted. it, I knew it was coming, I knew the. problems. I warned all of my friends. They Nobody listened. Nobody understood. about the financial crisis, what was. going to happen. And most of them, cuz I. was living in a beach town in Spain, they were in real estate. They all went bust. But worse than that. was that when we got to the European.

crisis, when basically the governments of Europe. ran out of money, the banks also ran out of money. And as opposed to being bailed out, they. got what's known as bailed in, which. means that they took your savings. to pay the debtors. And friends of my parents and friends of. friends were wiped out. And they were like, "Why didn't we. know?". I'm like, that was a question that sat with me for.

a while. "Why didn't we know?". And I saw that everybody had lost total. faith in the system. So, Occupy Wall Street happened at the. same period. And it was people angry. It's like, "We. thought money in the bank was safe. We. thought our house was safe. We thought. the system was there for us.". And suddenly they all wake up and. realize the system was not there for. them. Hm. It was actually for other. people. You know, people talk about. bankers never went to jail. No, there. was There was that sense that it was. never concluded.

And it sat with me for a long time. thinking, "What can I do about this?". Because I was writing super high-end. kind of research for hedge funds and, you know, big asset management firms. And so, it wasn't accessible to people. Um and then I wrote a couple of. articles. One got leaked in Zero Hedge. in its early days, and it became super. viral. Um and I thought maybe there's something. here and. that I could reach a broader audience, cuz then I can help these people. And.

that's when we came up with the idea of. Real Vision, which was the idea of. interviewing the people at the very. heart of the system and kind of sharing. the details, cuz these people weren't. hiding it. They wanted to help people as. well. Everyone had that sense that we. could help people. So, I'm still on that journey. And that journey kind of has taken a. multitude of paths, starting businesses, but also just trying to educate people. on why they feel the way they do. You know, why politics is so polarized.

Never used to be this bad. You know, what's really going on. and who really to blame. and what to do about it. If I stop the. average person on the street that knows. you and watches Real Vision, and I ask. them, "What has Raoul and his channel and his. information done for you?" What do you. think they would say, the average. person? They'd just say thank you. Because we've helped demystify. it, the world of finance. And. you see, we all have.

The root of unhappiness and happiness. often comes from does your vision of. your future self match where you are. today? Can you see that path? Whether that's finances, whether it's. health, they're all very similar. journeys. And when people can't see the vision of. their future self, and they can't see how to get there, they get upset. And what we've tried to. do. is unfuck people's future, which is an. expression we use, which is a way which.

is a a memetic or a meme or just a short. phraseology to help people understand we. understand that you feel like you can't. get to where you want to get to, but. there are options to do it. And I think. people are immensely grateful for that. in general. If you're on a mission to help people. unfuck their future, can you explain to. me specifically the things that stand. the chance of [ __ ] their future from. a macro perspective? And when I say. macro, we have to pause and just define.

what I mean by the word macro. When I. think of the word macro, I mean big. picture Yeah. perspective. So, from a. big picture perspective, what are the. things that stand. a chance of [ __ ] my future? Okay. So, and we can we can dig into why these. things have occurred, but generally speaking, wages in real terms, adjusted for. inflation, haven't gone up for decades. So, nobody's getting richer. If you're an American, you have this. powerful meme, which is the American.

dream. But that is not a reality for most. people. The reality is you grind it out. Your savings are not worth what you. thought they'd be. This whole promise of. your pension and swanning around on a. cruise ship around the Caribbean when. you're older, living in a nice house, none of that's true. And it's because. wages haven't gone up. So, okay. So, let's cut to. somebody who's in their 30s now.

Because this is the really important. cohort I think for this. They. can't afford to buy a house. If I go back to when I was. 30, I bought a house in London, and it. was. it was a nice place in a good area, and. it was three and a half times salary. Yes, I was in finance. I was earning a. high salary. You can't buy anything for. three and a half times your salary. Now, that same place, if I took the same. kind of young investment banker salary,

it's probably eight or 10 times. So, it's tripled in how expensive it is. to just buy your first house. So, what is a house? Firstly, it's your. quality of life, particularly, you know, in England, the UK, uh in the UK, sorry, in the US, we're home buyers. You know, we think of our home as our castle. It's. It's like the thing that solidifies our. security. But, you know, if you're in Germany, for. example, they don't they rent. But if we think.

about the mindset of owning a house, it's an asset that you can then pass on. or you can sell if you need to. And an. asset is. really. a future savings plan. It's something. you save now that in the future you can. consume. You can buy stuff with. But what you're doing is for the average. 35-year-old, the average millennial is. 36 years old. They can't afford to buy the house. So, therefore, their future self is. poorer.

If they think of how much of the stock. market they can buy, they can buy less with with that money. They have less savings. They They've got. debts from university. So, they don't have the ability to get. out of this trap. And then, what we are. finding is because of this, they're having to live with other people. into their 30s. They're having to. They don't have kids and they don't get. married. And these numbers have. collapsed since 1983. You've seen these.

numbers come down from um people living. on their own, so I you could get your. job, get yourself an apartment, has gone. from 80% to 62%. You're seeing the. marriage rate halve. You're seeing. um the home ownership rate go from 50%. to 30%. But these are all expressions of the. same problems. Which is people know. their future's [ __ ] and they can feel. it. They have a sense of desperation.

You see then the same cohort of kids in. their 30s doing two jobs, three jobs, four jobs. That's not because they want to. Nobody. wants to work 12-hour days, 7 days a. week. It's because they have to. And their parents, the baby boomers, who. are in their 70s and retiring, never had. that. They were the richest generation. the world had ever seen. So this is the first generation that. won't be as rich as their parents. And that's a weird thing because we're.

all used to human progress, the American. dream. If the American dream is, well, you'll. never be as wealthy as your parents and. they were middle-class people and I'm. now less well-off than them, that's kind. of [ __ ] So look, here's some stats. about a 30-year-old today versus a. 30-year-old in 1983. So. a 30-year-old in 1983. 85% of them. lived on their own. They could afford.

a house or an apartment to rent or to. buy. Now, it's 64%. So people are living having to live with. other people. Marriage rates, they've gone from 80% of. 30-year-olds in 1983 who were married to. 47% now. Kids, having kids, gone from 60%. to 32%. Population growth is collapsing because. people can't afford it. And home ownership for a 30-year-old has.

gone from 50% to 32%. It just shows that dramatic change. that's happened happened over the. decades and why each generation has. found it more and more difficult. to be like their parents. So I am. 30 years oldish. Yeah. I like to hang on. to 30 for as long as I can. Um. What advice would you give to someone. like me that's my age or maybe even. younger, you know, mid-20s, as to how to.

play the game over the coming years to. make sure that I don't find myself in a. position where I'm having to work two. jobs, I'm poor, I don't have assets, I. don't have anything to show for it. Like. if you take it right back to being like. maybe let's say a a 20-year-old or a. 25-year-old, how do you play the game? And and when I think about this, I'm. thinking like wealth creation, how to. then preserve my wealth, like what's the. game? So the first part of the game. is income. Okay. Without income, you don't have the cash.

to do the other things, to invest or to. look for opportunities. So first thing. is income. But even that's changing in how we earn. incomes these days. You know, it used to be you go and work. for a big firm, you get paid, you get. the benefit. That's all going and nobody. wants to do it. So you kind of end up. having to be a entrepreneur, work two or. three different things. The point being, if you're 20s, do all of that. Work day. and night. Really? many things, learn as much as you can, fail as often as possible.

What about work-life balance in your. 20s? [ __ ] it. Because that's the time to put in the. hard work. Your work-life balance. actually comes out later. I'm a big believer in yes, if you're. straight out of university, go traveling. for a year or two. You know, that A gets rid of the pent-up. need, but also gives you a much broader. perspective on the world than any other. single thing that you can do in your. life. After that, you get your head down. and you get your head down probably till. mid-30s. Okay, so what when you say get my head. down.

I'm guessing one of the most important. things in that season of your life is. knowledge acquisition. Yeah. And then if. that's true, then. the next question is what type of. knowledge should I be acquiring to set. myself up for wealth in the future? Cuz. I could go acquire knowledge of, you. know, how to clean a toilet or how to uh. be a gardener, but what what is the most. high returning knowledge? For me, it is. first to be an expert on something. Okay. And then a generalist on as much. as possible.

Right, be that expert because somebody. will pay you for that, at least for the. time being. And we'll talk about how the. world may change in the future, but for. the time being, if you're an expert in. whatever it may be, whether it's driving a taxi or whether. it's a computer scientist, doesn't. matter, be an expert. Compete with. yourself day and night to be the best. that you can. So at least it's going to give you the. chance to earn some money. Okay, so just. to drill down on that before we continue. to move forward.

How does one become an expert? Like what. are the like how do I have to show up to. become an expert? You're an expert on. many things. Okay, so this to me is this is a trick. that I learned. And it's called manifesting your own. destiny. And what you do is what I've always done. my whole life. is I envisage myself five or 10 years in. the future. What do I want to be? And you look around you and say, okay, what are the things that I want to have. that future vision of myself as opposed.

to the 30, 40-year path, it's too. difficult. Give it five years. Where do. I want to be in five years? Okay, and you look around that future. world and you think, okay, well, how. would I got here? You know, if I've. built a business cleaning windows and. I've got 20 people working for me, well, how did I get there? Well, I would have had to have figured. out, okay, how do I make this scale? How. do I employ people? How do I train them. to have the right standards? All of. that. You ask yourself your question of.

what that success looks like. And you kind of deconstruct it and go. back and make it happen. So you reverse. engineer it back from that that. five-year reality. So. window cleaner with 20 employees, I need. to learn management skills. I need to. learn how to clean a window. Accounting. Accounting. I need to learn. probably marketing so that I can spread. the message of my business. I probably need to learn potentially. like how to speak, like public speaking,

because that's sales. So I need to I. need to learn sales. Technology, you know, what what um. solvents, detergents are people using? What are the ways of doing it more. efficiently and faster so I can beat the. competitor? Ooh, so I might go and work. for a big window cleaning company to see. how they do it, to try and see the. opportunity in what they're not doing. Yeah, or even somebody who manufactures. stuff for that sector. It can be. anything where you can glean knowledge. to give yourself an unfair advantage. Now,

on podcast, it always makes it like. easy, everyone becomes an entrepreneur. and before you know everybody's rich. Doesn't work that way. But all I'm. trying to do is stack the odds in your. favor of getting close to that. that image of your future self. And you. can reverse engineer it. So I'm now an expert in whatever. I'm. I'm 29 and I'm an expert in window. cleaning or whatever it might be and I'm. a generalist in many things. You're saying that's going to enable me. to start to build wealth in something so. that I can go to the next season of my. life or. So.

when you become an expert. or when you become good at something, if you're careful in your expenditure, you will produce excess income. Right, cuz people are going to pay you. for your expertise. So if you manage yourself carefully in. those first few years, that excess cash, you can then choose what to do with it. Now, maybe you want to build the real. business that you wanted to build in the. first place, the crazy idea you've had. And if you're in your 20s, you can take.

the risk and blow your savings on that. crazy idea. because you've actually learned how to. do build a business already by building. the one that you started. Or you start investing. Now, the world of investments was this world. of weird financial advisors and they. would tell you some things like, well, you do this and then. you're a 25-year old, in 45 years' time. you'll get some money. I mean, [ __ ]. that. I mean, what what am I going to get out of it?

When I'm 65 years old, I suddenly get a. lump sum that I've spent my whole life. saving for. I don't feel it. It's got. I've got no emotional attachment to my. pension plan. And I've got real world problems to. solve. I can't buy a house. I can't get married. I can't have kids. So I need to solve these in a shorter. time period than my pension. My pension. was suitable for a different generation. that just needed enough after they. stopped working. So I got to solve that. And the answer.

is investing. Then most people roll. their eyes and go, really, stocks and. bonds? It's boring. Yeah, but the world has changed. The. world has changed. in many, many ways, but it's offered us. opportunities, whether it's investing in. technology, investing in crypto, that. gives us much higher returns, stupidly. higher returns, in short periods of time. Okay, that's magic. That's magic for. young people. It may be too risky for their parents,

but if you're young and you can take. some risk, okay, here's your chance. So now you can. build a business, use some excess. savings, put them in investments, now you're on the path. So let's get. onto investing then, but just before we. get onto investing, um I was playing. through the different sort of personas. of my audience and I was thinking that. some of them are working really, really, really hard at the moment. They're. doing, you know, they might be a a cab. driver, they could be, you know, doing. some sort of manual labor. And it feels to them that no matter how.

hard they work, they still don't have. that excess income to invest. So, for. those people, and this is a little bit. of a maybe a contentious question, like. is there something that they're doing. wrong as it relates to the game? No. The game is the game. And you have to play the game. So, okay. So, maybe you don't have. thousands to invest. I've seen many, many people in markets. like crypto.

go from. $500. to $500,000. Now, there's a lot of people who don't. either. But all I'm saying is the opportunity is. there. You don't need to bet your house. You. don't need to have huge savings. You. just need to focus on what you're doing, understand how to manage risks a bit, and how to look for opportunities. And. it's the self self-teaching is how do I. become that guy who's got a half a.

million dollar portfolio. considering I've only got $500 today or. $1,000 today. Is that possible still? Yeah. Very much. Haven't I missed the boat? No. No. It's happening again right now in. meme coins. This is fascinating. People. watching this will go, "What bunch of. nonsense." These are coins, tokens, and we'll talk about blockchain. and and this later, but these are. investments based on. a meme. A joke. A joke. Something that.

grabs attention on the internet. And you can bet on. those. Well, what is that? That's about betting. on attention itself. If you think about a business like. Facebook or Google or any of these, they're. Twitter, they're all based on attention. And now we can bet on attention. Do people find that funny? Are they. going to find it funny in. 6 months time or 6 weeks time? And we. can bet on this stuff. Okay, this is the.

super speculative end, but it's also. very cultural. It's not about investment. bankers. It's not about gatekeepers. It's about you pitting yourself. thinking, "Is this going to catch on. viral?" And if it is, is it going to. grow bigger? Now, some of those. might do. a thousand X. in 6 months. Now, 99% go to zero. But all I'm saying is returns are there.

And then you've got different levels of. return. If we look at Bitcoin, well, actually, let's compare it to the. S&P 500, and this is this will be an. important number later. What's the S&P. 500? That's the US stock market. It's the. broadest measure of the stock market, and you can buy. shares in it. Now, that grows at about. 10% a year, 11% a year. So, let's imagine you've got your. $1,000. Well, 11% a year is going to. take you a [ __ ] long time to make any.

money, right? So, it is not worth your. time. The financial advisors will say, "Yes, you must do this. Start now." I'm like, "I'm sorry, it's just not going to. change your life.". Okay, then we go to technology stocks. Nasdaq does about 18% a year. Okay, that's starting to add up because these. numbers. compound after a while. You know, it. goes from a thousand. to 1,200, and then, you know, it's another 20% on. top of that, 20%. These numbers add up. fast. Bitcoin,

since 2011, been 145%. a year. Even with it falling 80% three times in. the middle of that. So, 145% a year, as long as you're in it long enough, okay, now that's really starting to pay. off. And then. as you. get slightly more speculative, I take a bit more risk in things, well, the returns go up, but they become. riskier. So, once you start moving into that.

world, okay, this is a whole different. world now. Now, the guy with the $1,000. can get rich. What about buying a house? Because I think most people think the. minute they get some excess income, and I know for sure, when I say most. people, it's like 95% of people that. walk the streets think that the minute. you get some excess income, you should. take it and put it in a savings account. and buy your first house, get your first. mortgage. Now, as a strategy for wealth creation. and unfucking your life, is that a good. approach? No, cuz it's not wealth creation.

People think of houses as like an asset, but in the end, you barely ever will. sell your house to take the money out. You might downsize later in life. If. absolutely needed, you might sell it. But generally speaking, your house. is the lifestyle bank. Now, that is. super important. And I think it is the most important. trade of all is the lifestyle bank. So, what do you do this all for? You.

want lifestyle. So, do you sacrifice. your future self having more money. by having a house and having security. earlier? I would argue. those days are gone. What do you mean? So, I could do it cuz it was three times. income. Yeah. So, a house was not expensive for. me. So, I could start paying it off a bit. sooner, and it became not a big deal. But now, your mortgage is likely. a huge amount versus your income. You'll.

spend the rest of your life paying it. off, and most of the time you're just. paying off the interest. So, you don't. actually, you know, getting anywhere. You don't own that house. Anything goes. wrong, the bank takes it away from you. So, you've got to get more control. of your life. And that is by having savings that are. growing. Then you can make the choice, you know, let's say that example of the. person who's gone from $1,000 to. $500,000.

Maybe on route, they say, "Well, I'm going to take some. money off the table and put it in my. lifestyle bank, and I'm going to buy a. house.". That's what I've done my whole career, and I find the lifestyle bank that. that's the reward. Cuz now it's like, "Okay, nobody can take my house away.". So, if I'm trying to. build wealth, buying a house is not a good idea. It's. not the best approach to take to build. wealth. You're telling me that it's. actually about psychology and about.

emotion, the house, and it's not about. making myself wealthy. Um I I wanted to. read some of the. comments that. people often post when we talk about. these subjects because I think you're. probably. the guy to. address some of them. "I bought a house, and it's the best thing I ever did. It. launched my mindset in new directions. Remember that having your own space has. profound psychological impact and can be. life-changing for some that don't live.

in a healthy environment." I guess that. speaks to your point about um. it being a psychological. But you would also get the same feeling. if you rented. that was in a nice place and you knew. that, you know, your rent was secure, it. wasn't going to go up. Whatever it was, I don't think there's any difference to. that as long as you can feel that you've. got security, you can take risk and do other things. I purchased a house in 2014, and I sold. it 7 years later for 66K profit. Um I've put a large amount of the equity. into a financial investment portfolio.

with my bank, and it's been down 2%. since. I also put some money into. different shares based on Warren. Buffett's strategy, and that's now up. 18%. A friend of mine also lost about 30. to 40K on investing in the stock market. You have to be careful. I don't think. there's a correct solution. Some house. purchases do amazing. This idea that. some house purchases do amazing and some. people make returns is a is a sentiment. I often see. about buying a house. Yes, and. you know, we're here today in the UK, there's a big.

idea about buying two or three houses, getting a mortgage, renting them out, using the cash flow to pay for the other. one. But that's a lot of people's. dream portfolio idea. You know, I've rented out houses in the. past. Generally, it's. if you're not in a big city like London, it's generally often a terrible business. because you've got to repair them, there's a lot goes on. Headache. Headache. Tenants. Yeah. It's you know, people think it's easy money. I just I. just do nothing and it all makes money.

It it There is no easy money in this. world, and there's risk, right? Because. that little pyramid of. mortgages are all backed by your income. being able to put pay the mortgage on. the first house. If you lose your job, what happens? Then it becomes problematic because. if you're losing your job, maybe the. economy's slow, and other people are losing their job, and suddenly before you know it, none of. these mortgages are getting paid, and. guess what? You don't know any of this. stuff. Houses are not.

a safe investment. They feel safe. because the price doesn't go up and down. every day. It's not on the screen. It's not on. CNBC. But they're illiquid, which means they. don't often trade, but sometimes. something happens in that equation, either the price goes down or your. ability to pay that mortgage goes, and then the whole thing collapses in. seconds. And 2008 was that double. Everyone lost their jobs, so they. couldn't pay the mortgage, and the house.

prices collapsed. And so, I don't think houses are the panacea. They're not the perfect answer. Yes, they can be real estate is a decent. opportunity, and we'll talk about. debasement of currency and how that all. works. And real estate is. okay. It's certainly not the best. But. but, you know, yes, if you're rich and. you can own these things without. mortgages, you can be the Duke of Westminster and. own half of London and just collect. rents. You can do that for X generations.

and be rich forever. I get it. But most of us don't get into that. situation. My brother who has been an. investment banker for about 10 years now. works in my company and my fund. He said. to me when I was young, "When it comes. to creating wealth, what you want to do. is focus on games that very few people. can play that you have a unique. advantage in.". Because he goes, "Everyone can buy a. house, so you can you should assume that. the returns from doing it aren't going. to be amazing." So he was like, "Go find. a game that you have high leverage, you. have a unfair advantage in.".

expert in something. Yeah, be the expert. in something where you, because of your. knowledge, your expertise, your. experience, your contacts, you can play. that game but very few other people can. And he goes, "That's where you'll yield. your highest returns." And I always. thought about that, just very logically. thinking, if everyone can play the game, don't play that game if you're expecting. high returns because the returns are. going to be very low. And I'll tell you. the first game everyone plays when they. get a bit bit bit of income is buy a. house. So logically, you can go, "Okay, that's not going to yield me the best. returns unless I get lucky." Unless I. get exceptionally lucky and I buy some. barn in an area and then they build a.

bloody Whole Foods next door and it. becomes the the center of the world. Um. which isn't Again, the probability is. still not great. So what do you think of. that as a theory? Well, it's the same theory as I said is. be an expert in something and. you can find more opportunity. If you're just a generalist, it's really. hard cuz you're competing against. average people doing average things, right? If you're just working in an. insurance office, I mean, there's thousands of people. And.

plus you're competing with AI. You know, how are you ever going to be something. within that? How do you become an. expert? Now, you could teach yourself, "Okay, if I don't mind this industry and I. think I know it, maybe I need to learn. management skills. Maybe I spend all the. time listening to podcasts and learning. management. Maybe it's And that's I can. then manifest my destiny.". But as you say, doing something other people aren't. doing. is a superpower. Do you know what's. really interesting with that is this. idea of becoming an expert um I think.

it's critically important. But then. there's this other step I found which is. knowing what market to apply your. expertise to to yield the greatest. return. And the very simple analogy I'll. give you is for the first portion of my. career, I was I became an expert in. social media. Now, with that skill set and expertise, you can do a number of things. You can. help a fashion company sell more. dresses. And that will yield X return, a. smaller return. Then in the second. portion of my career, I realized that. that expertise was highest value and.

most rare if I applied it to. helping public companies tell their. story before their IPO. Because the variance in outcome for the. public company that I was applying my. social media expertise to was billions. So in the second sort of. sort of era of my career, I worked with. companies that were about to IPO, about. to go to the public markets, where their. performance could be, you know, their. market cap could be 1 billion or if they. were really good at telling their story. in a world where retail investors are. now so interesting to everyone because. of Wall Street bets, their market cap.

could be 3 billion. And that means they. would pay me seven figures for my skill. set. And I often think about it. You. think about the the stock market. If you put a company on the stock market. in London, it's valued at let's say 1. million. If you put it on the stock. market in America, the same company is. valued at 4 million, the same company. If you think of your skills like that, where are you applying your skills to. reach reap the highest return? Let's go. back to the window cleaner who's now. decided to build this business and he's. got 20 people. Yeah. Okay, so he's now.

got the hassle of managing all these. people, they turn out sick and then this. happens and then the customers are. unhappy. So maybe. the right answer is to create a program. to train other people to build their own. window cleaning companies. Free yourself from the rat race. and build this business. You'll make more money doing that than. you will from actually cleaning the. windows. 100%. Cuz you're going up the knowledge curve. The further up, the more of an expert. you are. And there's two things that. people need to think about.

You either have a very broad market for. something, candy bars. Well, then you've got to sell massive. scale and it's really hard. Or you go. through an area that has. very specific. group of users, buyers, whatever. And particularly ones that have a lot of. money. So let's go back to the house idea. again. The guy speculating on houses. So there's two.

the house speculators. There's. the guy or girl who's hustling. and renting them out, finding the cheap. bargain, doing them up, renting, getting. the cash flow, doing that. And then there's the guy. who's buying a place for 10 million, making it ultra luxury and selling it to. the billionaires and flipping it for 50. The the difference in the returns is. staggering. Why? Because one group is.

price insensitive. In fact, the more. expensive it is, the more they want it. The other group is trying to compete. with everybody else. Mhm. You know, the. two the two-bedroom apartment in the. city. Right? There's thousands of those being. done up and sold and everything else. So. to your point earlier, the returns are. less. But no, if you're doing super high-end, then there is a defined group of buyers. of which you probably know them all. Yeah. personally.

You can cater to their taste and they. have unlimited money. That's the big. thing, isn't it? It's like who you're. solving the problem for. Cuz you can. clean like Dorothy's windows, lives in a. bungalow in Plymouth. Or you can clean Google's windows. And. therefore you get a bigger contract, you. get guaranteed work, probably get a. return, you get more windows to clean. It's still one contract, it's still one. sell. It's the same skill set. Same. skill set. They're going to pay you a. lot more. And then And so I just don't. think I always find that bit missing. when we talk about like become an. expert, but then like who do you sell.

to? And your idea of selling to people. that are more price insensitive. and that aren't going to and that less. people are trying to sell to. Or they're super defined. Mhm. Mhm. Right? Like like Tom Bilyeu who we both. know. Tom's a good friend. You know, he. made his money because. there was a rise in. high-protein ketogenic foods. And it was difficult to have that snack. bar cuz people still have a sweet tooth, but they can't have sugar. So him and his partners built Quest,

which is now everywhere. So what you found is a. trend. And this is really really really. important. Is you find a trending market. where people are underserved. Mhm. And. they'll pay a lot of money cuz it's. health. It's like wealth and health. People pay fortunes in that industry. And so you make a fortune very quickly. Now Now it's a saturated market, so it's. not that easy. Mhm. But this is the. other key key thing. Is if you've got a clean slate,

do one thing. Follow a trend, a secular trend. A. secular trend is a long-term trend. Something that's happening, right? So. everything is being digitalized. You. rode that trend. Right? Social media was. new. from about 2010. Right? Now it's a saturated market. And we've got AI coming in, but you rode. a secular trend. in the hyper-acceleration phase. Yeah. That's why you did well. Mhm. So you.

look for a trend that's big, meaningful, and proveable. And use your skill set in that. We've seen something in America. I don't. know if you just saw the trend. Finally, the obesity numbers ticked. down. I didn't know that. Yeah. First time in. 50 years, obesity starts to fall in the. US. Right? This is a Zempic effect. Mhm. And it's probably some diet effect. My belief is the more people will take a. Zempic, the more they also think about.

diet and understand that something went. wrong for them. And my guess is there is going to be. huge opportunities in that trend towards. healthy eating. The other one is in an increasingly. AI-driven online digital world. There's two things that are going to. happen. One, the the rise of digital. communities. You see this in what you. do, I see it where I do. They become. more and more important. uh communities online. They're. meaningful for people.

The other is the entire flip side. I. spend 12 hours a day on Zoom calls. What is the most single valuable thing. to me? Nature. Nature and experiences. So let's say you're that person that. loves the outdoors. Well, start a guiding company because. your job is not going to be taken by the. robots anytime soon. Sure, you'll have. drones with you. So you can take photographs of the. guests you're going with or or look for. animals, whatever you're doing. You'll. be leveraging technology, but your job. will not be replaced.

Okay, what I'm about to say is a. mishmash of ideas that came to mind as. you were speaking. The first one was how. do I spot a trend? And when I say that, I mean how does it feel in the moment? Because the trends that you capitalized. on and the trends that I capitalized on, they feel a certain way at the time. And I here I'm talking about like how. disruptive they are, contrarian, what. people will say to you. They'll tell you. you're an idiot. And then with that as. well, you talked about um how right now. in the world we live in, betting on.

things like nature is a good idea. And I. actually did a post on my LinkedIn about. exactly this. I said, "My investment. fund is backing two things at the. moment. AI and automation and the exact. opposite." Because I saw this viral. video of people in I think it was like a. cafe in Amsterdam who come now every. week no phones allowed. They read books. and they knit. And this cafe in. Amsterdam is like exploding. I'll put. the video of these people on the screen. for everyone to see. And it made me. realize and that that overlaps with what. a two billionaire friends of mine said. to me in private. They said, "These are.

billionaires that invest in AI, they. invest in crypto, you probably know one. of them. And they invest in. psychedelics." They said to me, "If you. want to invest right now, invest in AI. if you can, but if you can't, invest in. entertainment and community." Because in. a world of AI where productivity is so. high and we maybe move towards some form. of universal basic income where the. government just hands people money, people are going to have so much free. time on their hands that they're going. to need something to do with it. So they. he said to me, "This is why you're. seeing this rise in people buying. football clubs uh and these sporting. franchises because that's one of the.

that's community and it's entertainment. at the same time. So I've thrown all of that at you. Yes, the equal and opposite idea. is I think. very important. I just came back from 3 weeks. off-roading in Zambia. living on a tent on the roof of a Toyota. Land Cruiser that is off-road prepared. and going out into the total wilds. And I can't express. how in the present you become.

How it cleanses your mind from all of. the clutter all of the things you worry. about, the broken car or the whatever's. going on online the politics. all goes. And it all becomes about. you wake up, who's going to make the. coffee, who's going to put the fire on, who's going to do you know and so. the more time we spend online, the more. we desperately crave. I saw it in the. Cayman Islands where I live. So it's a. Caribbean island and.

it was 2022. and the world hadn't really recovered. You know, there was the high inflation, people were losing jobs, everyone was. really uncomfortable with the economic. situation. It was painful for a lot of. people. We had a record tourist season. I'm like, "What the hell's going on. here?" Normally, discretionary spending. goes down in times like that. And I realized holidays had not become. discretionary spend, they'd become a. necessity as a reaction to work from. home.

If you're on your own at home working. for. a startup or a company or doing whatever. it kind of feels a bit lonely. And so you start seeking out like-minded. people who have like-minded pursuits. Now, that could be sporting teams. It could also be. tour lovers because you happen to have a. tour and you love it. And you'll talk to. other people around the world. You now. have no borders. This is this Balaji.

idea of the network states where you can. create large groups of interest. So if. you look at the largest group of. interest in all of social media, it's. actually crypto. Why? Because we feel like outcasts, we're new. to something where something's happening. and you want to get together cuz you. speak to 90% of your friends that don't. care and they don't know what you're. talking about. But you think this is the. most exciting thing you've ever seen. So. you will aggregate online with others. And this whole rise of people thinking.

they need to. that that that the security of working. for a large insurance company, whatever. it may be, your whole life, getting paid. and retiring has gone, which is why the. rise of your podcast success. Because. people are searching for answers, new. solutions to their way and they fell. they form communities around it. They. want to share their ideas, spread share. their stresses and strains. This is becoming bigger and bigger and. more solidified. And the more we go into.

AI the more we'll see that. Now. there's another player in this game, which is the AI itself. We're already seeing the rise of AI. I. follow several on on X. where it's an AI posting. But it's they're forcing it to try to. break free. But it's it's got character. Marc. Andreessen actually backed it by sending. it a Bitcoin to develop its business. plan. I mean, it's there's some crazy. stuff going on with AI.

Um. but soon, if you think what you and I do. is communicate with people in a. to an audience, one to many. That's a very old business model. It's from town squares or the souk in. Marrakech. It's the same thing. It's a. storyteller telling to a group of people. and you have a shared experience. Where we're going is one to one. And you know, I'm developing a a a Ral.

video bot. where you can just have conversations. like this with me. One to one. And it's trained on all of my. information. My all my YouTube, all of. my writings, all of my Twitter all the. books I've read, everything. And so it's. essentially a replacement way of. speaking to me. But just on that Ral bot. thing, we'll keep moving forward, but um. the reason why I. haven't trained a Steven bot even though. my team have said, "Oh, this is a good. idea." is because I wonder if.

people care about Steven. or they just want the information. And. in a world where you can get the. information from a very advanced large. language model like the chat GPT 1.0 or. whatever. I go, "Why would they want it from me. when you can get it from the entirety of. the world's like trust?" Okay. You've built trust. That's what you. built. People come to watch you and your. interviews because they trust you. So. people know me as an entrepreneur um. in one area of my life and they come to.

me for for say like business advice, let's say. But if you could get business advice. from Steven or you can get it from. Steven, Elon, Steve Jobs, every business. person in the world to suit your. specific problem, why would you just. want Steven's point of view? Because. we're humans and I just want to ask you. that question. And you won't believe it. if it's Steve Jobs cuz he's dead. But. yes, that's all coming. Okay, maybe. is that window going to last where. people will use a Steven bot versus. the world's greatest expert on.

everything? It takes a bit time for people to adjust. to that, but within 10 years, maybe. that's not there. But let me go a little. bit further on this. Have you seen Character AI? No. Nobody. has. Character AI builds bots. which are. characters like anime characters and. they're really specific like the cool. kid who's the bully at school that I. fancy. sort of thing.

150. million conversations. There's some of these anime ones like, you know, hero figures. 450. million conversations. And it's young people. If you go on to. Reddit, uh I think it's R character AI. They changed the model and there was. uproar. It doesn't love me like it used. to. People are building personal. relationships with these things at. scale. This is TikTok happening all over. again.

But you're too old to see it and I'm too. old to see it. I stumbled across it and. I'm like, "Holy [ __ ] This is happening. all over again." is something that we. will just think is the most ridiculous. awful societally toxic thing in the. world is about to scale to the billions. in front of our eyes and we're all. talking about chat GPT and how we can. get knowledge out of it when actually. the big problem to solve is teenage. loneliness. How disruptive do you think AI is going. to be? It's this it's.

How do I put this? It is the single greatest innovation of. humanity. ever. The only thing that comes close is. probably the splitting of the atom. This is so big. Everything we've talked about is based. on scarcity of knowledge. Why do lawyers get paid a lot? Scarcity.

of knowledge. So it's either scarcity of. knowledge or scarcity of capital, those. two things. What you've created is infinite. knowledge. Right, knowledge is now worth zero. Not people that can't see it yet, but. it's going to be worth zero. This is. like water. What What the hell does that mean? And. it's something, you know, a topic we'll. come on to later. But this is happening really fast. It's.

going to break the entire economic model. for good and for bad. It's going to. change our understanding of how society. functions, what humans do. It's going to. change our understanding of what humans. are and will be. Because you can either have the choice. and society will take the two paths. You. either merge with the machines. or you reject the machines. We are going towards two different. species. One group. like we had for a about 100,000 years, I.

think 50,000 years, we had the. Neanderthal man and Homo sapien. And one died out. We will have people. who will utterly reject this and we'll. have other people who will be embedding. neuralinks into their brains and using. every part of this to enhance. themselves, wearing the goggles so they. get the information. Well, as soon as. you embed into your brains, you've now. merged with the machines entirely and. you are now a super creature. And I know this sounds like science. fiction but this is happening faster. than anybody can imagine.

So to understand the issues we have even. dealing with some of these things. is humans thinking in a linear fashion. We kind of understand the passage of. time, right? That's how we think about. things. Every year is the same amount of time. that goes forward. Never accelerates. May perceive that it accelerates or. slows down occasionally, but it's not. It's it's a constant. The problem is with things that go. exponential. is they keep doubling every year or. tripling every year and before you know.

it. every graph looks like this. Goes. straight up. Just goes straight up. vertically. Now, the issue is with this. technology. is it's kind of an exponential squared. It's it's happening so fast and the. faster AI. becomes. powerful. is the more it's used to create AI, which creates more it solves its own. problems. Right? We're not prepared for a super.

being. that solves its own energy problems, compute problems and how to improve its. model. at an exponential rate. If you look at. the speed of innovation coming out of. Open AI and that whole space perpetually. everybody. it's ludicrous. Every 3 months. everything changes, completely changes. Whether it's video models or whether. it's spoken models or whether it's the. models themselves and what they do. I mean, they're nuking every startup.

that tries to build a business. No. company, you're a big giant. pharmaceutical company and you're trying. to use AI. you can't plant a flag. because you can't see past 6 months. I mean, we're going into a world that is. incomprehensible. When you said that much of our society. sort of functions and is based on the. scarcity of knowledge. I really think we should just pause to. make that real for people cuz we all get. it. Okay, lawyers, yeah, they they rely.

on knowledge, but. dry like I was thinking about how I got. here in the morning. So, if you think. about my whole day today, I woke up this. morning and my my executive some of the. CEOs of my company said asked me a. couple of simple business decisions and. I'd replied to them. Then I got in a car. and I drove here. That's knowledge at. the end of the day. It's someone seeing. with two eyes. My driver outside sees. with two eyes and drives me here. The biggest employer I think in the. world, the biggest sort of profession in. the world is driving. And that's knowledge-based. And if you. go to San Francisco now, the the Waymo. cars are driving themselves. There's no.

driver in them. You can get you can book. a car that takes you from A to B in San. Francisco right now that has no driver. I then got here. And what am I doing? I'm I'm sharing I guess we're probing to. find knowledge and to share knowledge. I. think about my whole day today. I'm like. and then after this I'm going and. speaking on stage to share knowledge. I'm like I don't understand if in that's. all knowledge. Okay, so then do that. The next time. you're going around London or any city, look out the window. Myself and Julian Bethell who works with. me do this all the time. Just go around and say what job is going.

to be replaced by a robot or the AI. Like one thing I was in I was in. Manhattan. and I just looked out I was in an Uber. bored, you know, driving uptown to. downtown. I looked around and I was. like, holy [ __ ] Every car here is a. professional driver. There's virtually. no people who drive into the city to go. to the office or whatever, right? So, it's all Uber drivers, limo drivers, yellow cab drivers, delivery drivers, truck drivers.

All gone. And this stacks up in pretty much. everything you do. Uh and that's how disruptive it is. And when. the things that created value, the. services economy. and the manufacturing economy. don't need humans. Okay, what does that mean? Amazon. already employs more robots than humans. Now, the robots work 24 hours a day, 7. days a week, never take a break, never. complain, never ask for a pay rise. In.

fact, they get cheaper every year. Who's not going to do that? So, for the. 4 and 1/2 million people [ __ ]. themselves as they listen to this Yeah. What what advice can we including myself. um. I'm not actually [ __ ] myself. I've. got to be honest because I just I see. opportunity in all these things and I. think that's you kind of have a choice. when you hear information like this. You. can either let the cognitive dissonance. get over overwhelm you and then reject. it, which a lot of people will be doing. now. They'll be saying, well, you're.

wrong. This is not going to happen. You're wrong. You're scaremongering. That's what one group of people will be. doing. The other group of people will be. I guess open-minded and the third group. of people will be leaning in to see. where the opportunity here lies. And it. all comes down to your like disposition. as a human. Are you scared? Are you excited or are. you paralyzed? If something is so clearly going to be. your demise, not demise as in you're. going to die, but your current way of. doing things is going to be forced to. change.

Well, you can either fight it as you. say, being different to it. or you can invest in it. This goes back to the question I asked. you earlier, which is how does it feel. in the moment when a trend is coming in? Usually, there's culture around it. So, if you remember I talked about. when I got into finance, there was. Gordon Gekko, the film Wall Street, the. there were books coming, right? There. was. Barbarians at the Gate, there was famous. stuff happening. It became cultural.

And that usually tells you it is now. become a trend that's going to be. persistent. If we think about. the rise of software and technology, the. culture. of Silicon Valley and the mythology. around it. becomes something that everybody wants a. part of. Cryptocurrency is another one that has a. mythology. You see people getting rich.

It has this feeling of being outsiders, but you know. you see AI is another one. You see. online people experimenting. You can see. what's going on. You can see everybody. is starting to talk about it. Doesn't. mean you can just buy some. share that that's exposed to it and. you'll be hilariously rich. Doesn't work. that way. But you know something really. big when you're. when you're trying to acquire knowledge. you know. people watch you and I to try and glean.

knowledge, you know. build their world view. You'll hear that every single person is. talking about this and trying to figure. out what it means. The issue is is AI. will build businesses, right? So, we're. 6 months away of agentic AI. Agentic AI means it's like having Fiverr. a website of experts that you can ask. any question and it will go away and do. the task. And by using a number of Fiverr experts. you can build a.

online business. Well, the agentic AI will do that very. very soon. It'll build design the. website, code it, register the domain. name figure out the branding, figure out. the marketing, figure out the email. list, figure out Super fast. the whole. thing. Mhm. So, then you and I are in. competition now. You've built this. incredible new website and it's a new. supplements formula. thing, but it's a cool website new. experience kind of 3D whatever it is, right? It's got AI in it. I just go to. my AI and say, love Steven's website,

can you just build it better? Make it in. Hindi as well cuz I think there's a big. market there. What do you think? It'll. come back and say, not Hindi, I think. there's an undersaturated market in in. Indonesia. Boom. 3 minutes. What? How do how can we be entrepreneurs. in software? So, now there's this. theory going around that. AI is going to eat software. And I kind of get it cuz it can build. anything in seconds. So.

and again, whether it could do it 6. months or 12 months, it's it's of that. magnitude. the what the hell does that mean? But yet. the 23-year-old who's learned guiding in. the jungles of Latin America and is. building a luxury lodge for people and. uh you know, some eco-tourism. I don't give a [ __ ] about any of this. It's so interesting this idea that we. might be at the the collapse of the. digital opportunity in a sense because. when I say the digital opportunity, I'm.

talking about content creators. I'm. talking about entrepreneurs that built, you know, after the dot-com era. I'm. talking about. stock traders, you know, people that. trade stock markets. And if we're at the. collapse of the digital opportunity. and that the value's all going to accrue. to these big sort of tech giants or the. AIs. imagine if this is the moment in history. where actually the best play was to go. be build the backpacking company in I. don't know, the Himalayas or whatever. Maybe like. that's the opportunity. But it's not.

scalable. Yes, you can do it and find. people will spend more at it. To go back. to our earlier conversations, people. spend a lot of money on it. So, it's. quality attention cuz everything in the. world is attention. Attention is upstream of everything. So, you get the attention of these people in. a rainforest. They want to spend money. on doing this particular thing. Fantastic. Um how scalable is it? Difficult because then there's people. management. It's not like software,

right? So, they're not but you can do. very well. and not be concerned about this other. world. How does one. invest in AI? Something that I think about a lot. because I believe the things you say. I. believe many of your predictions around. around the impact that AI is going to. have on the world, the economy, on all. of us. And as someone that's an. investor, I want to like take part in. that. I want to take part in the upside. So, I'm wondering, do I just go buy. Microsoft stock because they own a bit. of ChatGPT? Do I buy Meta stock cuz they. own a bit of cuz they own Lambda? Do I. buy Google stock cuz they have Gemini.

and their models. So, here's the problem with the. financial system. The average person watching this. has no chance of making the money. They'll make normal returns, not. supernormal returns. So, Microsoft is whatever it is, two, three trillion dollar company. What what. could it be worth? Who knows? 10. trillion, 15 trillion. It doesn't really. matter, right? That's a 5x. What for the most revolutionary. technology the world has ever seen? You. make five times your money?

That's not. But somebody else. in VC or earlier, in some way, shape, or. form, or the entrepreneur will make all. of the money. And this is the thing I don't like about. the system as it is. It's kind of rigged. against the ordinary person. So, we're going to have your jobs replaced, you're going to have this societal. change, and yet they don't get a chance. So, yes,

invest in technology. Don't own any other stocks. Own technology. And you will capture some of this. You're investing in your own demise. At. least you'll get some high-quality. returns. But otherwise, the only way I can come up with, again, and we keep referring to it, it is crypto. What is crypto? Crypto is just a technology. You know, it's a lot of things to many people. It's just a database that's better than.

databases in the past. So, right now, your database may be in your. spreadsheet, and let's say you and I. have a bet. You put it You write it down. there, and we get a third person. to say, "Yeah, that was the bet they had, and. this is what's happened.". Okay. That is how databases, that's banks, that's pretty much everything we do in. society is in this ledger system. It's. called I've got a suitcase here, which. is. maybe.

maybe a good way to kind of explain. this. This is a bank. And. inside the bank, which is, I guess, the middleman, you. got money. Yeah. So, could you explain it to me through. the context of this, we'll call it the central bank, how the system currently works as it. relates to transactions, the public. ledger, et cetera? So, okay. In the old. world, we both had our gold. Yeah.

And we'd stick it in our safe or bury it. in the ground. That gold was your gold. This was my gold, and I might try and. fight you for it. It's what pirates did. Okay. And then we invent banks. Mhm. And banks, we put it in there, and they give you a. note to say, "Stephen, you've got one of. those coins. Raoul, you've got one of those coins.". Okay. So, we both got a a note now. saying that. Yeah. And now we trust this bank. to give us our coins when we want them, cuz they're our coins. Mhm.

Okay, that makes sense. Safe as Safe as. a bank, as people would say. The issue is. is in this world of smoke and mirrors, what's known as fractional reserve. banking, they have taken. those coins. and given them to somebody else. They've. given my coins to someone else? Yeah, they've lent it for money. So, now that coin is not in there. But they've been given the money, so. usually when you're just the the You.

know, if everybody pulls all the money. out, there's not enough money. It's. called a bank run. We've seen those. recently, but that's a classic thing. So, it's not your money. because you don't actually own your. money. The moment you put it in the. bank, what you've become is, in fact, a debtor to the bank, or a credit Sorry, a creditor to the bank. So, you've lent. them money, and. you get some legal redress. that if you've got less than 100,000. euros, pounds, whatever the currency is,

generally that's protected by the. government that if the bank goes bust, then you get your money back. But anything beyond that, you don't get anything. But I've got a. piece of paper. Yeah. Means [ __ ]. You don't own anything. Now, it's so big as a problem. that 2000 So, that was 2012 European. crisis, exactly this. People didn't own. their money. That person walked off with it, asked. the bank for it. The bank didn't have.

it. Nobody's got any money. Where's it. all gone? That's the same Ponzi scheme. we talked about when you've got. you buy a house and use the cash flow to. buy another house, another house, right? Somebody takes away what's known as the. collateral, suddenly it's all gone. But the issue is actually bigger cuz. 2008. proved another thing. Is that nobody owns anything. So, the whole system itself. is leveraged. So, for example, back in that time,

the average US government bond, which is. the safest thing in the world, was leveraged. up to 30 times. What does that mean? That means. 30 people. thought that that was theirs. Oh, so I say that. this is the bank in front of us, the. suitcase, and it had one coin in it. When we put that one coin in, it created. 30 more coins, and gave out 30 pieces of.

paper. Yeah. So, there's actually only. one coin in the bank. Yeah. But they. made 30 pieces of paper. all well and good. if. the collateral, the thing that it's. secured on, the coin, maintains value. Uh okay. Or isn't pulled. by one person. If you were the lender. and you're original lender and you get. it out, and something happens, then all of these. 29 other people are like, "I want my coin back.".

And they're like, "It doesn't exist.". It doesn't exist. So, we just made it We just created the. coin. Correct. We just Sorry, we just gave you a piece. of paper, but there was no coin backing. it. Yeah, and the issue is So, that's. one issue with the banking. The other. issue is is pretty much everything we do. is created on this. It's called a ledger system. A ledger. was invented in the Renaissance, in the. 1500s, 1400s, where. what would happen is you have this on a. on a. accounts or balance sheet, you'd have.

these dual-entry. ledgers. And what it's basically saying is I. agree with you, and often we'd have a. third party agreeing it. Okay. Issue is. is that's known as the Byzantine. general's problem. It's actually a. philosophical mathematical problem that. has been unsolvable. until Bitcoin came along. And what it is. is we are generals in a war. You are way away from me. We can't. communicate with each other, but I need. to send somebody to tell you something.

There is no way of making sure that that. person tells you exactly what I've told. them, and no way of you approving it. And that's what a three-party system. does. I may go to a notary, but how do you. know I haven't bribed the notary to lie? I see that all the time. We see it with accounting firms and. audits. We see this. in everything. There's always one of. these trusted parties that is not. trusted. The bank, classical trusted. counterparty, that suddenly. may not be trusted. We saw it with. Silicon Valley Bank recently in the US.

So, what blockchain did, really. cleverly, was said, "Okay, well, the way of. solving this. is to get thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of. thousands, millions. of people confirm it." Okay, so let's. throw away the bank. Take my paper back cuz that's worth. zero. Um. If you pick up this chain here on the. floor, Yeah. this is our hypothetical. blockchain. Yeah. Now, explain to me the.

difference between the bank we just saw. and this blockchain. So, this blockchain, so this, let's say, is a Bitcoin. Mhm. This slot on the blockchain. is confirmed. by every other part of the blockchain, which is all the computers. that that solve this mathematical. problem. We don't need to worry about. that, but what it is is tens of. thousands of people reporting. on all of the activity. So, if I.

transfer this ownership to you, Yeah. it. will know that you are the owner. You. can either hold it yourself, like the. gold coin, Mhm. as a bearer asset, or. you can ask somebody to custody it for. you, but. still your name. So, if I want to send you a Bitcoin, how is. how are tens of thousands of people or. hundreds of thousands of people. confirming that that transaction is. legitimate without a middleman checking? So, they're essentially taking a.

snapshot of the blockchain, and they all have to agree. And they're not actually It's called a. consensus mechanism. They're not. actually at their computer saying, "Yes, I agree.". Well, the computers agree. Okay, so the. computers are checking. Yeah, or the. the blockchain itself. will say, "Well, that doesn't agree with. all the others," and it gets rejected, and that whole block will get rejected. until resolved. Like, there's a problem. here.". And that's called consensus. So, what. you're doing is a multi-party consensus.

that this is truth. Mhm. So, now what. you've created is what a friend of mine. calls the security truth machine. So, at first, we all know it for. Bitcoin. I can own a Bitcoin. It's proven that I. own the Bitcoin. I don't need anybody to. tell me that I own the Bitcoin because. it's. publicly acknowledgeable. and verifiable on the blockchain. It's. immutable, which means. can't be broken. Mhm. Okay.

But, this is where it gets really. interesting. Is we suddenly find that after the. invention of the smart contract, so. right now, let's say we're 2,000 and. There's a contract in here. Yes, because I've sent one Bitcoin to. Raul. Okay. So, this is the world. pre-Ethereum. Okay. The world post-Ethereum would say, "I'm. going to send Raul one Bitcoin if the. sun shines 13 days in a row in London.

and something else happens. Whatever it. is.". And it'll automatically settle, verified on the chain. Because there's. 10,000 computers. And there's code in that to make the. settlement. Okay. Okay. So, all's well and good. Maybe nobody knows what that means yet. What it means is that everything we do. as humans is actually contracts. Me. turning up here today, a contract.

Literally everything we do is a. contract. Every ticket you buy, every purchase you. make, everything is a contract. It's how. society functions. Money's a contract, isn't it? Money's a. contract. Government's a contract. Religion's a contract. Everything is a. contract. It's how we create a social. construct and social order. Now, what we can start doing. is using this very powerful chain. and putting other stuff on it. The first random thing that came on it.

was actually art, cuz it's valuable. Called NFTs, non-fungible tokens. They're single pieces of art. that are stored there and we can have. ownership. But that's really experimentation. Really, your Taylor Swift concert tickets can be. on chain. Why would you do that? Because now, this has solved another big thing that. didn't exist. We talked about before, in a digital. world, everything goes to zero in value. So, Raul, what's the point of this? This.

is just like cloud cloud storage. Just. goes to zero in cost. No, cuz what we've. created is digital scarcity. You can only create a certain amount. We. can make that one asset be that one. asset. Mhm. And so, therefore, it can't be. replicated at all. So, now in this digital world, where. every day is more digital than the next, we've created the scarcity. And scarcity is what gives value. It's. what humans assign value to.

And that means that Scarcity of. knowledge Mhm. means that knowledge was. valuable. Lawyers, cuz not that many. people come out of law school that then. Now, with AI, not valuable. So, to make. sure I I and everyone listening. understands what a what the blockchain. is, it's this. public, can think of it as this database. in the sky, and the database in the sky is checked. by everybody who has their computer on. and is interacting with the database in. the sky. So, you no longer need a.

government or a bank checking the. transactions and the and the contracts. in the database in the sky, because now. all of our computers that are on, interacting with it, are in the. background checking that if I send you. one Bitcoin, if I do something on this. database in the sky, it is. um. in accordance with the history of the. database, and um it is. in line with that database. Yeah. What. and to make it less complicated,

it just makes it a source of truth. Okay. In a world. where we don't even know who is who. online, who owes each other what, any of these. things, we now have source of truth that. everybody can agree on. And everyone can. see. And everybody can see. And you don't need to trust anybody. And so, that as a technology. solves. many things, problems that we don't even. know we've got, because they're so part. of how we exist.

So, the technology is not about money. The technology is about. truth. and. exchanging value and creating value in a. digital age. Now, what is interesting. and powerful about this technology. is we've seen technologies similar. before, the internet. We've seen broadband. We've seen these. big global infrastructure things.

Most of those, the internet was a public. service good. Broadband was all built private sector. We didn't get to make money out of these. things, really. Amazon made the money or. or whoever it was building the. broadband, they all went bust as well. What we've got here. is this very clever thing. that. everybody in this block chain gets.

rewarded for the role that they play. In maintaining the blockchain. In. maintaining the blockchain. And because these things are scarce, and. let's say Bitcoin being the most classic. example, there's only 21 million that. will ever exist, you've created this. scarce asset that is a reward system. So, the people who mine the Bitcoin, they use the electricity to solve the. algorithm to get the Bitcoins to make. sure there's only 21 million, well, they. get rewarded. The people who verify the chain get. rewarded.

And then, we can buy the asset, which is actually. us investing. in the future use cases of this thing. Are people going to use it for storing. wealth or building stuff? So, now you get. this global infrastructure layer. of which. people can invest. Now, let's go back to. the example of AI. AI, 99% of people listening to this will not.

be able to invest in it, apart from. buying some of those big public. companies. Because they're not accredited. investors, they're not allowed, they. don't get to see it, they're an insider, all of this stuff. This is the inverse. It is fractionalizable. So, a Bitcoin, you don't have to buy one. at 60 whatever thousand it is today, you. can buy. a fraction. So, remember we talked about property. and the guys who own the big high-end. property make all the money.

None of us can buy the $50 million. apartment in Manhattan and then do it up. and flip it for $250 million. Now, blockchain, we can all put 10% of our paycheck in. it. Do you think people should? Yeah, and more. But the point being. is this is the only. globally homogeneous asset. on Earth. It's the same in Nigeria as it is in.

Brazil, as it is in London, as it is in. Silicon Valley, as it is in India, as it is in Papua New. Guinea. And everybody is on an equal footing. You can put the same percentage of your. worth in it. Okay, that. is mind-blowing. And it bypasses the. banking system, the brokerage system, and all the other incumbent things that. get in the way of a Nigerian. buying an international investment.

So, we've got a playing field that's. leveled in the fastest growing. technology of all time, in the fastest. appreciating asset in price terms of all. time, in the shortest period of time, that is. globally available to anybody. And then you realize, "Holy [ __ ] Okay, this is important." Now, why that's. important is because. having more investors in it means the. asset becomes more valuable, which means.

you're more likely to secure it. People. want to join the network to earn some of. these tokens to secure it. The more use. cases get built upon it, because people. are making money, and it bootstraps. It's behavioral economics. It's an. incentive-based system to bootstrap the. most ridiculous startup idea of all. time, which is, "I'm going to entirely. disrupt money and create a new. internet." I mean, that's laughably. stupid, and that's what's happening. One. of the I run a company called. Thirdweb, which is a Web3 infrastructure.

business. We we've raised quite a lot of. money for the company, about $30 million. now, and we have a big team, and it's. interesting for me to observe the use. cases, because people come to Thirdweb. to build on the blockchain. And one of. the really interesting use cases we've. seen over the last, I'd say, 12 months. that's really exploded is is gaming. People building. uh Web3 blockchain-based games, because. if you think about games like FIFA, which is a huge game, obviously, in the. UK, where we're big soccer fans, or.

other games like, you know, um Runescape. back in the day, where you have assets. in the game. In FIFA, you have a Messi. card. In Runescape, you might have a. sword. The thing that the blockchain now. enables us to do is to take those assets. from the game and actually trade them. outside the game. So, I can if the if the sword was on the. Ethereum blockchain, even though I'm not. inside the game, I can trade that sword. on the Ethereum blockchain, and so. one of the most exceptional use cases. we've seen at Thirdweb is people. building AI games. Oh, sorry. People.

building Web3 games, because these. assets are now valuable. It's great for. the game developer. They've now got this. brand new economy for their for their. company, and it's great for the people. that own those assets in the game, cuz. they've now those assets are now more. valuable, cuz more people can access. them. And I don't think people realize the. extent to which this disruption is. already taking place. People think of. crypto and Web3, and they think of. buying coins and hoping the price goes. up. But it was interesting, you know, everyone knows like DocuSign and Adobe. like e-sign and those things. And I went. on one of their websites, I think it was.

DocuSign, cuz I just I thought surely. physical contracts should be on the. Ethereum blockchain now. And there was. this little paragraph on the DocuSign. website which says every time like a. contract is signed on DocuSign, we do. like there's a hash on the blockchain. So it's like recorded on the blockchain. I thought people don't even know that. the blockchain is now penetrated. society. I was um I've got an asset management. company, Exponential Age Asset. Management, and we invest in. hedge funds that just invest in crypto. to capture this trend of going from.

2 trillion dollars where it is today in. value, I think it's going to 100. trillion in. let's say 2032, 2034. Okay, that's. stupid. That's that's more wealth than. the than. has ever been created in that period of. time on earth by. quite twice the amount of value the S&P. 500, the US stock market. took to build. in 100 years. I think we'll do it in 20. So, this is staggering that wealth,

which is why we'll talk about why people. should be involved in how they should be. involved later cuz I'm passionate about. that. But I was one of our investors, I was in. Switzerland, and she is the head of. trading at. one of the soft commodity companies. So, soft commodities like cocoa, sugar, corn, all of this stuff. Agricultural. commodities. And um. I'm like surely you guys. should be thinking about building on. blockchain. You know, because there's a lot of.

letters of credit and stuff that. happens, shipments. She goes, "Oh, we. all all the commodity trading houses. built on Ethereum in 2020." Mhm. She goes, "So, every shipment we make. the shipping contracts. the quality of goods contract the. letters of credit. everything is on chain. So, we don't. have to trust these others cuz. commodity industry is full of sharks and.

you're dealing with countries that are. not easy to deal with. She's like, "We've got this verifiable source of. truth. It's completely revolutionized. our industry, and nobody knows about. it." And if if I own Ethereum Yeah. if I. own an Ethereum token Yeah. which I do, by the way. Yeah. I've been stacking it. and refusing to sell. Good. Much to my brother's dismay. He's. like, "Steve, you're a bit too emotional. about this stuff." I was like, "Bro, I. was like, if there's any asset that I. own that I Well, we're going to talk. about how not to [ __ ] it up later. That's another thesis. But how do I. benefit from the fact that games are now.

being built on Ethereum and It's really. simple. If. we'd all been given shares in Facebook. when it started we'd have all been. hilariously rich. But we didn't. The VCs got it, and then it went to the. public market, and then you have to have. a brokerage account, you have to be. approved, right? What this is happening, you buy an. Ethereum token today. if Ethereum ends up becoming bigger. and more uses. your token value goes up. It's as simple.

as that. So, you get to participate in. an entire technological revolution. really simply from your mobile phone. And you don't need anybody to approve it. or do anything. Yes, there's regulation stuff, but. simple stuff like that, it's pretty. straightforward for almost everybody in. the world. So, therefore we talked about. how do you invest in your disruption and. the future of technology. Okay, here's. one where you can really do it, and. it's easy to do.

I have a couple questions here then. So. you said it's easy to do. Yeah. Let's talk about the practicalities. How. do does one do it? I can do it on my phone, I have to call. someone, how do I invest in crypto? You. just open a crypto account. Yeah. Um with one of the big crypto providers, Coinbase, Kraken. crypto.com, who are at Gemini. What. about this though? My bank, my digital. bank is offering me to buy crypto on. there, should I do that? Yes, you can. And you could do it by PayPal. Start.

somewhere. I'm not going to say no. But you will go down the journey that. everybody goes down, which is. the easiest on-ramp is the best. Revolut, whatever, I don't care. Do it. Get a feel for what it's like to own an. asset that goes up and down a lot. Mhm. Particularly down. When it goes. down, it makes you feel terrible, and. you've got to learn about how to deal. with it. And then because it goes up over time, if you don't do anything and you've. chosen a good quality asset.

that's provable as a as an asset in. itself. it'll probably go up over time. In fact, highly likely to go up a lot. And then you'll start thinking. do you remember Raoul saying that the. bank owns this stuff and I don't own it? And then you might say, "Oh, but the. magic here is unlike the bank where I. can't take more than 10 grand out. I can put it all. on my little ledger device because. What's a ledger device? A ledger device. is it's actually a it's a company that.

provides it, but what it is. because this is just an address on a. blockchain. And think of it it's like your mailbox. You can send stuff to it. but you can't actually take it out. Like your email, somebody can't read all. your emails, but they can send you. emails. Well, that. that part that's private. that secure. passkey essentially.

well, you keep that to yourself and it's. stored on a device, and there's a. complicated way of doing it, and you'll. have to go through that, which is you. have to have this seed phrase that does. it. This technology will change quite. soon, you know, fingerprints, face. prints, and a bunch of other stuff. But. basically. a little USB stick. will secure that you can go and put in a. safe or go and take it to your nan's. house or whatever it is. can secure. your money that is only yours and nobody. can take it out. I have mine on a.

ledger. So, I have my Ethereum on a. small It's kind of like a small USB. stick. And then that USB stick is. protected by like 24 words or whatever. it is. That's right. And those words are. on pieces of paper in different. countries at the moment. Um and it means that no matter what. happens, no matter where I am in the. world, no matter who comes for me I can. always retrieve the X thousand Ethereum. that I have on this ledger device. Yeah. Um unlike a bank where my my account. could get frozen by the government, or.

they could empty my bank, they could. freeze my bank. I can I will always have that value. And. also, you know, there's a famous example. of the conversation of gold in the. United States, and it's been done in. many countries in the past. The good thing about this. magic internet money. is you have to physically cross borders. with it. Yeah. Yeah. Think of all the Jewish people who had. to take. money and diamonds and gold out of Nazi. Germany and out of Europe.

It was hard to do. Here, you have to do anything. You just. need to remember a seed phrase. A seed phrase being basically a string. of words. Yeah. Yeah. So, which. blockchain, which coin do you think. people should invest in? I have only. ever invested in one. I've only ever. backed Ethereum. I think part of my bias. there comes from the fact that when we. building Thirdweb I had a window into. the blockchains that people were. actually building their applications on.

And Ethereum was the. was the one. And obviously there's layer. twos, which are people then, you know, build blockchains on top of Ethereum, etc. But for me, Ethereum was just the. dominant blockchain that I thought would. solve for most of. the use cases outside of maybe um. what they call a store of value outside. of like money necessarily. So, contracts. and other things. So, what do you say? This is where. my this is my 30 years of expertise is. this one thing which is asset. allocation.

So, firstly. the average person watching this. is you need to allocate to this. End of. story. If you're going to start. somewhere. start with Bitcoin. It's just easy to do. It's widely available. you know, through different, you know, whether it's your credit card, anything, just do that. I don't care. Do that. And do it with. as much money as you can afford. to see go down. 60, 70% and don't care.

And expect that to happen cuz that's. what you have to see to see the. long-term 150% a year. It's included. within that is these downsides. Then. I want you to put in some money every. month. regardless of price. to build your savings in this. exponential asset that goes up a lot. Okay, now you're set. You're on the. journey. And then you want to figure out how do I.

make the most money? Like you, I switched I Bitcoin to start. with. I switched all of my Bitcoin into. ETH. in 2020, in Ethereum. And so I was I just owned that plus some. NFTs and a few other bits and pieces, but generally it was that. And then in 2020. two at the bottom of the bear market, I. started to see the price of Solana. seeing like it it wants to outperform.

Ethereum. Now, Solana, much like your. thesis. I saw this massive developer community. passionate retail, and a difference in. the technology. Cuz these are all. basically. distributed companies that sell block. space. So, you want to look for. attractive block space. Bitcoin, it's. the secure one. Ethereum, it's like the world computer, you know, and everybody's building on. top of it. Solana, faster, cheaper,

feels more friendly, efficient. Yeah, it. feels more retail. And I saw that. and the speed of which they can do. things and the innovation. and the the developer community. meant that I started switching and then. switched all of my ETH outside of my. NFTs where I collect a lot of art. into Solana. And I've now been switching part of my. Solana into Sui, SUI,

and as a. disclaimer, I'm actually on the board of. the foundation, but it's like the next. big chosen one. It's the group that came. out of Facebook that built Facebook. Libra. So, what I'm trying to do is. maximize my return. I'm a mercenary. around I'm passionate about this space. and what it means, the technology, and how it empowers people, how it can. change the third world, how it can. change the internet, but I'm also a. mercenary for my own capital and for. anybody else I can help. Now, it doesn't.

mean I always get it right. So, to in your particular circumstance, I would like Look, you'll probably be. fine over time, but you're not. maximizing your returns. But, do you. want to take the risk? Do you have the. bandwidth to do that? And these are the. questions we were talking about with. work. It's the same thing. How much do. you want to go down the rabbit hole? How. much time do you have to invest versus. the expected upside? I don't have the. time. I'm spending all my time doing. podcasting, building businesses. And. then, just do what you're doing. Unless. something says that Ethereum usage is.

falling off a cliff and developers are. leaving in total, then don't worry about it, right? You're. going to be directionally very right. Will you capture. the best returns? No, nor will I. Some other rando will get by luck. something right. But, the average. person, so I have this thesis that I've. had tried to help as many people where. this is from my own learnings and. watching everybody else [ __ ] it up. is what happens is you're given this. incredible asset class.

And at first, you do intelligent thing. like own some Bitcoin and some ETH. And then, you want to get out the risk. curve cuz you see somebody else making. more money, you understand you can. That's okay. And then, the bull market really hits, the banana zone period when things go. bananas, prices go vertical. And you. will see people online saying, "Well, I. made a million dollars today cuz I. bought this. meme coin." And you will lose your mind, and you will start buying all the stupid. [ __ ] and you'll go so far out the risk. curve, and then,

when the music stops, the stuff you own will be worth nothing, and the more quality tokens will retain. their value. The other thing that people. do in that journey. is use leverage. What is What is leverage? Leverage is. when you borrow more money to buy more. of the asset. So, I now borrow money to buy more. Ethereum cuz I want outperform you and I. want to make more money cuz I'm really. greedy. The 160% a year that Ethereum. does as returns since 2015.

is not good enough for me. I want to. make it 400, 500% a year. Stupid, right? And what happens is you borrow money to. do it. It's leverage. Futures markets, perpetuals, there's a. whole bunch of ways of doing this or. even borrowing on the bloody credit. card, whatever way people will do this, and you really have to know what you're. doing because the whole game, if this. technology. is going to last over time and it's. going from two trillion to a hundred. trillion, you have one job,

not to lose your tokens. One job. You can do nothing. like you're doing, and you will make an extremely good. amount of money out of it. Your one job is to not [ __ ] that up. I. have a have a bit of a theory. And this theory is very naive and narrow. and based on the smallest sample group. in the world. It is I have six friends. Um I actually I'm one of the six, so I. have five friends, five of my best. friends, and we've all taken different. attitudes towards crypto. And my friend.

who is most heavily involved in crypto. has made the least money. and is arguably. the least rich. Mhm. And it's his life. And I think it's because of what you've. described, whereas my position has. always been I invest in this one coin, I. don't sell it, and I just buy more when. I can over the last six years. I don't. really pay attention. Frankly, if you. ask me to log in to see I the last time. I checked what it was worth, I couldn't. tell you. Couldn't tell you what it was. worth. Actually, I'd struggle to log in.

It's been so long since I've logged in. and looked at it. And I think my returns. have outpaced his because of that. Yeah. I think that's right. And so, you know, this is all the conversation. we've been having, the secular trend, the opportunity, the skill set, then. it's the execution of that thing, then. it's not to [ __ ] it up. And what you've. done is not [ __ ] it up. He invested in. Luna. your. seed phrases elsewhere, so nobody can. You've got no single point of failure. You've got it stored privately yourself.

You have it in a large one of the top. two. There's probably three that. all low risk in terms of the chances. that the use gets abandoned in the next. five years, Bitcoin, ETH, and Solana. They're pretty safe. So, everyone should. knock their socks off. 80% of their. portfolio, do that, and you'll make money. 90% of portfolio, don't use leverage. Then, we're all humans. Give yourself.

10% and do the [ __ ] what you want. Most of the time, you'll find out that. that 10% goes to zero, which is fine. It's a good lesson. You don't care cuz. you've made plenty of money on the rest. But, if you are that genius who can find. the thousand X meme coin, knock your. socks off. Here's why I think that. genius ends up cuz it's funny cuz the. friend I'm describing, he's around He's. in Dubai. So, he There's a a lot of them. out there that you I mean, I said Dubai, you understand what I'm talking about. Um they all invested in Luna, they lost. their [ __ ] shirt. That he was telling.

me about his boy who he works with who. made, I don't know, tens of millions. betting on these meme coins. And then. now, he tells me that exact same guy is. broke and is in a a lot of trouble. because the mentality that makes you. go in pursuit of these real high risk. bets, these are like meme coins and. stuff, is also the same mentality and mindset. that makes you lose the thousand X. return, the ten million dollars you made. um on the other side. And I think the. psychology of money book talks about. that as well. It like case studies,

Morgan Housel's book, case studies, the. guy who like bet against the like the. contrarian that made the billion is also. the same contrarian that ends up losing. it again in the next cycle. So, I feel like I've seen that a lot. The problem with the meme coin thing, it. is a casino. Yeah. What is good is there. are periods of time where where. everybody in the casino makes money. Yeah. Right, which is unlike casinos cuz. there's trends in financial markets. And no one's taking out so it's paper. returns. And then,

a lot of this stuff goes to zero. So, that with NFTs last cycle, we've seen it. with a whole bunch of tokens, which is. where you need to be very careful of. latching onto a token and just keeping. hold of it because some of these won't. survive. You're lucky you're in ETH and. not in something else, EOS that was. around in 2017, right? It's like you're stuck. So, you need to be careful. Um. speculation does work for periods of. time. It's better than actually lottery. tickets and generally better than the. casino, but only for periods of time,

and then you will lose everything. Somebody's going to come into that. casino and sweep every table, and only. 5% of the people are going to be left. with money. So, just think of it that. way. So, if you want to have fun, people. But, the people who do it the most are. the people who live off adrenaline. Yeah. Right? It's the adrenaline. junkies. They usually terminally online. They probably like to. gamble in other ways, sports betting. It You know, it's an I'm not really that. person. So, I don't trade.

Yes, I own a few meme coins cuz I enjoy. the fun of the culture and seeing that. culture develop, but just keep it. simple, stupid. Is this why men are so. drawn to this? I was thinking about the. gambling statistics and like something. like 95 or 98% of gambling addicts are. men. And I was thinking, you know, how does. this overlap with like their sense of. purpose, community? I think men feel hugely under pressure.

to be successful, to provide. There's a societal. thing about what a man does and what he. should do and how you measure success. That. even in sports, it's kind of it's very. competitive to be a man, but it's also somewhat of a lonely. pursuit in that respect cuz men aren't. very good at talking about their. feelings and their fears and all the. [ __ ] you bring in your head. So, some gambling.

is to do with that desperate need to get. ahead. I I need to make this work. But, then it becomes somewhat of an. addiction because of the adrenaline. Dopamine is a very, very powerful drug, and we search for all day, which is what. the internet's all about. That's. behavioral economics. This is what they. discovered is you trigger dopamine, and. you can make all animals do something. Famously, Skinner and the rats, but. humans and the internet and like buttons. and anger and all of these things.

So, there's parts of that. It's partly also. male society is about. betting and proving your prowess, gladiatorial. So, it's a whole. complicated thing of what makes men do. it. But, the reason, for example, in crypto. it's so male. it's because we're driven by that need. to be the breadwinner, even though. society has moved on from that.

And we're seeing fantastically a rise of. women in the blockchain space. Um. and a changing of that crypto bro. culture that was there. If you follow. some of the crypto Bitcoin Twitter pages. that are the confession pages, and. people can write in and confess what. happened to them. It's often really sad and heartbreaking. hearing about this father who has three. young kids under the age of seven who. invested in some meme coin, lost it all,

and now his wife wants to know where the. money is, and he's got nothing to show. for it. And I've seen these. documentaries. I've even kind of heard. of these stories in in my extended. network where like my personal trainer. put 6,000 pounds of his very scarce. money into some coin, and it went to. zero, and he's lost it all. And it. the suicides in the in the bear market. when people have put too much in and. they've lost it all. Much of the reason. why I think people don't invest in. crypto anymore is either they've heard. one of these stories or they are one of. those stories. And I think there's so.

there's a kind of a disclaimer and kind. of a warning here which needs to be. Well, this is the don't [ __ ] this up. thesis. Buy Bitcoin, Ethereum, and. Solana. One of those three, preferably all. three. And that will stop you going to zero. But, it could go up. It could crash. It. could crash 70% or something. Okay, so. that's. a conversation about time horizon. How. long should I be prepared to hold it for. to make a return? Well, it depends. what return and for what. Remember we talked about, you know, what.

part of your destiny you're trying to. to manifest here. Which part of your. lifestyle chips are you trying to cash. in? So, if you're trying to get rich. quick, I I want to make loads of money. by next year. I'd rather you didn't. do this. Um I don't think that is a sensible, intelligent way of living your life. You're going to take too much risk, and. you're going to susceptible to lose it. all. If you said, "Hey, Raoul, listen, what I want is I want in 5 years time to.

have made a decent return on my money, you know, three, four, five times my. money.". I'm like, "Yeah, that's fine." Okay, I'm going to ask you. for a price prediction. No. You don't do You don't do price. predictions? Not anymore. And the reason. being is because. a lot of people listen to what I say, and therefore. they then build a mental model around a. price. Mhm. And what you do is then you. create a false.

comfort in what you're doing. But, Raoul. says it's going to X. And that stops you doing the work to. make yourself test anything. And then you start extrapolating, "Well, I put 10 grand in, and if Raoul's right, I'm going to have a million dollars.". Like the whole thing becomes this. emotional journey. Mhm. And so, I tried to stop doing it because. the the best thing I can say to people. is, "Listen, 2032, 2034, that is not.

long away. 10 years. This asset class is going to go from 2. trillion. to 100 trillion. Right? That. is a huge return. Now, some of the coins in that space will do. a multiple of that. That simple thesis. is why I built X fund, the asset. management company Exponential Age, was. just to capture this trend, to let Well, unfortunately, it's only for high net. worth investors and institutional.

investors, but just let them go on that. journey, get the hedge funds to take the. risk and figure it out, and do that. But, if people just do that, give me 10. years. Just give me 10 years. And. if you do it 10 years and you're. sensible, you'll be able to take a whole. chunk of money out every few years. because it's quite cyclical. It moves. maybe every 4 years, and so you can take. a chunk out, cash cash it in the lifestyle bank, and keep moving towards that goal.

Well, as you were speaking, I figured. out your price prediction based on your. prediction of how big the asset class. will get. So, you gave me enough time to ask AI. to do the math for me. And it says if. Bitcoin has a 40% market dominance, the. market cap of Bitcoin will be roughly 40. trillion. If there are approximately 90. million Bitcoins mined, the price would. be around 2.1 million per Bitcoin. At a 50% dominance, the price per. Bitcoin would be 2.6 million per. Bitcoin. Today, as we sit here, the. price of Bitcoin is $62,000.

So, if your prediction that the asset. class gets to 100 trillion, and if. Ethereum is 15% of that, then each Ethereum will be worth. $125,000. per Ethereum. And today, it's worth. about $2,400. then what I do when I'm faced with. something like this, when I first bought. Bitcoin in. I first wrote I wrote the first ever. Bitcoin strategy piece and made a price. prediction. based on. what I understood about Bitcoin back in. 2013,

12. It was the first ever piece written by. anybody. And I said, "Listen, I think it's worth. a million dollars.". And it was trading at $200. And I had some. basic math, but the same kind of idea. using trends and everything else. And I. said, "I'm assuming I'm wrong by 90%. Still worth 100 grand, and it's. currently $200. It's the best trade. you'll ever do in your entire life.". And that proved out to be true. So, let's assume that Raoul is a [ __ ]. and I'm 50% wrong.

That's a 50 trillion dollar asset class. You get to a million dollar Bitcoin. Ish, right? Mhm. And assuming whether it's that dominance. or less dominance, and what happens to. it. But, you can see the magnitude of the. returns. So, that's a what, 15X return. in Bitcoin. What if you're wrong? You've staked so much of your life. on this. You've invested so much of your. own money in it. What if you're wrong. about this asset class?

You couldn't have predicted Bitcoin. would be so dominant 20 years ago. We. couldn't have predicted even 5 years ago. that AI would take hold. These things. come out of nowhere, and they change the. paradigm. What if you're wrong? I'm an investor, so being wrong is part. of the thing. What's hard is via helping. so many people at Real Vision. and elsewhere, it is a weight I carry on my shoulders. because I'm trying to bring as many. people across the line and unfuck their. future and all of these things.

And I ask myself those questions, and I. go back to the simple thing. There was. the graph of the adoption of this. If that's going to stop, we've got an issue. But then, how are we going to solve. problems of. digital identity. or contracts in a globalized world or. any of these things without this. technology? I I can't do it, right? It's like a. magic technology. The Byzantine generals problem was a.

real, complicated problem that nobody. had solved until. Bitcoin. Maybe AI creates a better. blockchain. Maybe AI creates a better. system. Yes, it could do. But, how long away is that before we. adopt it it adopts that technology, you. know, some quantum. cryptographic, whatever, right? Is there. a need for it yet? Why are we disrupting a new industry. that's not been disrupted? But, yes. No investment comes without.

risk. Crypto comes with. that risk, the risk that governments will try and. shut it down, even though they've tried, and it's like a cork approach cuz it's. distributed, and it's everywhere. Yeah, there's the the risk the. blockchain you invest in. becomes less valuable. There is the cyclicality of this asset. that can fall 70%, 80% every three for. every 4 years. You have to deal with. that. There's the risk that you lose your.

coins. There's the. There's all the risks in the world, and. that's why you get paid the return. So, I don't There is no certainty in. this world. I live in a probabilistic. world. But, if you can show me the world. is going to be less digital than today, and you can show me a better way of. dealing with a lot of these structural. problems that we have, and you can show me that the community, the groundswell of individuals. Don't. forget, this is driven by individuals. We front run the institutions.

The institutions. weren't allowed to invest in it. But, we've been able to put our money in. before they did. We've created it. If I. see any of those factors is changing, then I worry about it. So, you're telling me that if I'm. earning an income right now, I shouldn't. hold these pieces of paper. that the central bank, my bank, is. giving me. I shouldn't keep cash in my. bank account. Everybody has different needs, and I'm. not saying don't Yeah, have where you're. sitting at home. Look, everything up to about 100 grand.

is protected. So, you're okay. You're not going to lose your money. that way. Mhm. But, you'll lose it another way. And that's the debasement of currency. It's time to take a moment to reflect on. our sponsor, Whoop's Sober October. challenge. I know thousands of you got. involved in the Sober October challenge. My inbox has been flooded with messages. sharing the changes you've experienced, which is amazing. A big part of why I. partner with brands like Whoop is. because I believe they offer something. of incredible value that I use in my own.

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goodnotes.com/doac. So, what's the debasement of currency? Really simply, we talked about in a. digital world, everything goes to zero in value. That is debasement. What it means is. too much of something makes it less. valuable. I can come out of the desert. I will pay you anything for a bottle of. water. Give me a million bottles of water,

I'll pay you nothing for them. All right, there's too much of it. Now, how you say, "Well, how can there. be too much money?". But what happens is the economic system. revalues things in this weird world, in. this weird way, by debasement. So, debasement in the old. times was, if we take one of those. gold coins, debasement was that was, let's say, 1 oz. of gold.

Then I was the Roman emperor, I would just snip off a little bit of. the gold. You wouldn't notice, and you'd. still value it. Try and pretend it was the 1 oz. But somebody else would say, "No, no, no. It's actually worth less. I've taken that sliver as the emperor, and I've used it and spent it on. sports cars, and. you've now got a less valuable coin. And the country has less value. So, the.

money is less valuable. It's called. debasement. The more of it. that's around, in the electronic age where you just. press the button and you create money, then what happens is the value of money. goes down. So, let's say, people can understand it. simply as, let's say you go on holiday. and you go to. a country that has a. very weak currency. Let's say it was it. used to be Mexico, let's say. You're an. American, you went to Mexico, everything.

was cheap. because the currency kept going down. But for Mexicans, it actually got. expensive cuz the value the purchasing. power. of your. um peso went down, and you couldn't buy as much with your. peso. What we're doing. is ever since 2008, the whole world, all the big economies. in the world, hit 100%. All the governments hit 100%. of GDP in debt. So, 100% of the economic.

value of that country was in debt. And that means. that just paying the interest on that. debt. starts to become a burden. So, let's say. your. your economy's growing at 2% a year. Let's say your interest rate was 2%. Well, 100% of the economic growth. basically goes to pay the interest. payments. Cuz somebody needs to generate the money. to pay them. But.

at the time corporations. were over 100% of GDP in debt, and so. were households, 2008. Everybody was in. a debt orgy. The financial system was just lending. everybody. And then it all fell apart. And so, what they stopped doing was. really corporations and households. stopped um. borrowing as much money. They in fact. restricted money to us. So, in these economic times, we've. actually been able to borrow less money. while house prices have gone up by. debasement. I'll show you that in a sec.

And the governments have taken on this. obligation. So, they've been massively. growing their debts. And they reset interest rates to zero. to kind of. give them a chance of paying debts back. in 2008. And only recently have they have they. really risen. But they've still got all of these. interest payments to pay. For now, the. US economy is. 400. well, 380% of GDP in debt. It's.

staggering considering the size of this. economy. The world, the entire world is 400% of GDP in debt. All right, we've gone so far beyond. what is sensible anymore that it's. become incredibly fragile. So, the management of the payments of. the debt and the debt itself. is the number one. focus of the government and the central. banks. Because. if it all goes to [ __ ] it all goes to.

[ __ ] Everyone's going to lose their. savings, every business goes under, every government goes under, there's no. payment of services, the retirees lose. everything. It is unfathomable. And I. know many people online talk about, "Yeah, we should just let it all go.". They have no comprehension of what that. will do in a world that's 400% in debt. It's basically a 75% wipeout of every. single asset. And all the. retirees and all your savings and all. your pensions and everything.

So, the answer is. well, let's just print some more money. to pay the bills. That's you taking a. credit card to pay off your credit card. payments. Now, when you control the money, you can. kind of do that cuz nobody's going to. tap you on the shoulder. So, what they do is they start printing. money. The first they used to use the the. balance sheet, which meant that the. Federal Reserve or the Bank of England. or whoever. would buy bonds from the market and kind. of.

basically take them off the market. So, it meant there was less debt around in. the market. But they changed the thing. They they. now have something more pernicious. called liquidity. You can't see it. They've got different mechanisms that. they put this into the system. And basically, everybody, all of the. central banks are doing it at the same. time, and they're also all in agreement. that they have to do it. And this is all. driven by the aging demographics and the. debt problems that it all caused. And so, what we've got. is every government having every.

4 years or so. to print a lot of money. Why 4 years? Because in 2008, they all reset their. interest rates to zero. They then went and borrowed money 3 to 5. years out. And every 4 years, the cycle. comes up and they start injecting money, liquidity. Okay, so, what does this all. mean? Yeah, people watching this are. like, "Yeah, I I. I kind of know what you're talking. about." What it means. is that on average,

your money goes down in purchasing power. versus scarce assets. by 8% a year. And then you've usually got, let's say, a 3% inflation rate. You've got 11% of. your money. is being devalued every year. Your. future self is getting poorer by 11%. All right, remember we hit we talked. about the future self? And if you buy. the S&P 500, what was it making? About. 11% a year. So, if you buy the S&P 500, your future self is not going to get any.

richer for the risk you've taken locking. up your money for 10 years or 20 years. Because of this inflation. Because of. this debasement. Debasement. Now, people confuse. inflation and debasement. I would call this debasement of. currency. And so, this is happening at 8% a year, which is why we're all feeling so. [ __ ]. It's happening all these assets keep. going up. Real estate keeps going up to. offset this. Now, what I did, once I realized this, something I call the everything code, is. a big thesis around how this all.

happened and what it all means. What's. happening is basically the aging. population is driving debt to GDP. It's. driving the government debt. And then the liquidity is paying the. interest payments. So, it's this. economic machine that the world has. become. It's perfectly cyclical. It's. perfectly predictable. It's not going. away until we have this technological. revolution we talked about. And so, everybody has to protect themselves. So,

once I found this thing called the. everything code, I started thinking, "Okay, if this, let's say, 11%. rate, the hurdle rate of money that my. future self is getting poorer every year. by, what do I invest in?" So, I started. dividing everything by that. And the S&P 500 doesn't make you any. money. Real estate doesn't really make. you any money. Gold actually lost you. money. It's supposed to maintain your. purchasing power. I'm like, "Holy [ __ ].

There were only two assets in the world. that outperformed this. Technology, crypto. The NASDAQ was doing 18% a year. and crypto was doing 150 plus. You know, Solana was doing 250. % a year, even with three 80% drawdowns. So, this is what got me to change my. entire investing game from being a. broad-based investor. with you know, a balanced portfolio. to Okay, there's only two bets in the.

world. There There are literally two. bets in the world, technology and. crypto. And. the NASDAQ is down 99.97%. versus Bitcoin since 2012. How much of. your personal money do you invest in. crypto? 100% of my liquid net worth and it has. been 5 years. Have you done well? Yeah. Yeah, very well. I've I've not made any. major mistakes. I mean, I've been in this journey since. 2013. I mean, I have made mistakes.

My mistake was I bought it at 200. I put. not bad size betting considering how. unproven it was in 2013. It was how. unproven it was. And it went up. it went up. five x or something in the first 3. months of me buying it. I'm like, I'm. the best investor in the world. This is. amazing. Then it fell 87% and I'm like, I had this long-term view it's going to. 100,000 and that. um I would just not look at the price. I.

should be doing, right? And fine and then. 2017, it was now at 2,500. I was up like 10, 12 x which was amazing. I'd never had a. bet up 10 or 12 x and. and there was some weird stuff going on. There was another Bitcoin. It's going to. be the code have been forked and I was. like, I don't really understand this. I'm going to take my money. So, that was. about March, April 20.

17. By December, it had hit 20,000. It had gone up another 10 x that year. Then it collapsed down 85%. and then I bought it in 2020. during the pandemic. Into that big sell-off where it fell. 50%. So, I bought it cheap. I sold it on. the way up. I then bought it when it sold off.

If I'd have just held onto my original. bet. I'd have made five times as much money. And if I'd have listened to myself, which is every 4 years when you have. these big sell-offs you just try and. add as much money as possible. I'd have. made 25 to times as much money. So, I've. even though I got it right, I [ __ ] it. up, too. Now, you've said that the best trade. is always. quality of life. Yes. If your account is full of quality of. life and quality of life experiences, that's the greatest trade on Earth and.

I'll continue to do that trade until the. day that I die. What do you mean? What is the purpose of life? Now, we can get very existential about. stuff and you actually go down these. paths a lot with AI and universal. consciousness and a lot of other stuff. But basically. let's just assume we're humans. Let's just assume maybe we've got one. shot on this Earth. Well, you might as well make the best of.

it. And people have got to remember money is. just a scoring system. that allows you privileges. And people lose track of that and think. money is the privilege itself. The privilege is freedom. The privilege is being able to live. where you want to live. The privilege is. being surrounded by the people you want. to be surrounded by. The privilege is. being able to bring up a family. Whatever your value system is. those are the things.

So. for me it's. I like living in nature. And that's probably key thing number. one, but being connected. So, when I bought a house in Spain, that. was a huge quality of life thing cuz. I've got a security of a house that I. own. in nature. in good climate. Okay, I'm I'm fine. But really experiences are even more.

powerful. If there is a true currency in. the world, it's experiences. You know, as I said, I've just come back from. living in the remote wild of Zambia. That is an experience that is incredibly. valuable to me. And I've done a lot of. these. That is what it's all for. This understanding and seeing of how the. world is and the beauty and the marvel, the people, understanding people and not. being fearful of people and. and not thinking about. cultures except in terms of Oh, well,

that's their culture and that's their. culture as opposed to culture good, culture bad. Friends, yeah, all of these things, these are the valuable things. You can't. buy any of them. You have to physically go and spend the. time. and be uncomfortable. I've always said. there is your comfort zone. and where the magic happens and these. two Venn diagrams don't intersect. You. have to be outside your comfort zone. to feel the magic. If not, you're just.

doing life by numbers. Do I need money. to have those experiences? No. So, what's the point in me doing all. this, you know, Bitcoin investing. focusing and sacrificing my 20s? You need some money. You don't. You can solve for it without. But it's hard if you're living. in Ohio. or Birmingham or wherever you are, right? To get some of these things. It might be. I want to be warm and dry. I want to,

you know. grow my own fruit and vegetable. Whatever it is, it doesn't matter, right? You can solve it by. a number of different ways. But really. for the average person, I say this is. like. if you want to live on a beach you can. either become a billionaire and live in. St. Barts. or you can go to Latin America and live. on the beach for virtually nothing. And. if you're living in an internet age, you. can make it happen. But then what. happens is maybe you want some more. creature comforts. Maybe you do this.

But I don't say that we should all be. the Buddhist Zen master and say we need. nothing. We can reject everything. But if we break it down to what is the. feeling that I want. then you can solve it with money on. without money and you won't be. disappointed because remember the very. beginning of our conversation. is what makes people unhappy. is when their vision of their future. self. and their current state don't meet. Now, if your vision of your future self.

is remember I said I want that that. peninsula in Spain with that family. So, what are the component parts there? I. like sea. I like uh social life of. people. Uh I like natural beauty and. with somebody I love. Okay. That can be solved 100 different ways. But in your life, did you have to shift. from the building zone, the building. season of life to then the kind of. enjoyment season of life? I did. in the middle.

Which was the lesson I learned. Is I had done the investment banking and. the hedge fund thing. I then opted out. of the rat race. I wasn't the richest. guy in the world, but I thought, you. know what? If I can get a source of. income I can live and I can grow my. olives and almonds and I lived in a. beautiful house on the side of a. national park near a beach town in. Spain. I've won the lottery. And I started Global Macro Investor. That ended up becoming a um a much. bigger thing cuz the financial crisis. and I predicted it and got all that.

stuff right. Um and so. what I found is I'd semi-retired. and I was surrounded by people. who weren't really. stimulating, intellectually stimulating. I made some great friends. But you wouldn't have a conversation. like this. And so, I felt isolated. And then, you know, you live on. adrenaline if you're an entrepreneur or. you're in financial markets and so, you. end up going out to bars and nightclub, you know. and I'm like I looked at it and I've.

been there 10 years. I'm like, I got to. get out of this because I'm excited by. life. I'm excited. I want to do the. entrepreneur thing. I love investing. I. just want to be around people who also. did it. And but by chance, I ended up. building a house in the Cayman Islands. um cuz it was one of my dreams. I wanted. to drop a house on tropical beach. I. love diving, all of this stuff. And that. was the signal to me to go, [ __ ] it. I'm. moving to Cayman. I started Real Vision. and I started the entrepreneur's journey. and now I've got four companies and I'm. busier than I've ever been in my life.

I'm very happy doing it. But it's a. chapter again. And it'll give me the lifestyle ratchet, but also the intellectual ratchet that I. wanted to prove to myself that I can do. some of these things. We have a closing. tradition on this podcast where the last. guest leaves a question for the next. guest not knowing who they're going to. be leaving it for. I've never revealed the last question in. terms of who's written it. But I'm going to reveal it in this case. This question is written by Boris. Johnson. And the question was, have you ever.

tried to sack someone and ended the. meeting having accidentally promoted. them? Um Boris is speaking from experience. there. You know, I think. I probably have. I think I probably have. And that goes back to one of my things. that I've had to learn is how to have. difficult conversations. I'm English.

And my mom's Dutch. We're also quite. evasive. We don't like. drama. My wife's American, so she's taught me. that like you just go straight in for. the kill. And I've avoided tough. conversations. And so. I've probably ended up in that. situation. Or something close to it. Does it not I. have as well. Of course I have. And I'm. just like but this is the lesson I'm. trying to learn is. you need to be more.

if it's a tough conversation, just do. it. Amen. Thank you, Raoul. Um I think everybody. should go and check out your channel, which I've watched for many, many years. now. I think it's the In fact, it's the. only channel I go looking for when I'm. looking for advice on. anything crypto-related, the macro. environment, inflation, all of these. things. The only channel that I trust. and that I go looking for, and I really, really mean this when I say it, has. always been yours because I think you've. provided um nuance in a way that's. accessible to the average person. And a. lot of these finance channels are very. difficult to like understand the.

terminology. They kind of skip past that. part. But what you've done so well is. made all of these subjects so accessible. for everybody. Um and I can't imagine how many millions. of people you've um helped open their. eyes to the state of currency debasement. and you know, some of the myths around. how to create and and save your wealth. And I think that's um. a mission that is so incredibly. important because a lot of this insight. unfortunately, historically, has been. reserved for the elites, however you. want to define them. The elites.

intellectually or the those only the. people that work in finance. And I think. what Real Vision has done is blown those. doors open. And you're you've been a a. champion for me in my life um and and an. educator for me in my life. So that's. why I was very excited to speak to you. today. So. Thank you for what you taught me. I. appreciate that. And also, for everybody. watching this, look, I'm genuine in. trying to help as many people. And so we've that the this whole. everything code thesis to make people. understand it more. We've made a whole. special uh area for you guys on Real. Vision. Go to realvision.com {forward.

slash} diary. And there is all fit for you guys. watching this. It's the everything code, the document. so you can read it, watch the video. You. get free Real Vision subscription cuz. it's free to join. And honestly, there's so many tools. And. if you don't understand something, ask. the AI. The bottom right of the screen. is a little plus button. You ask the AI, the Real Vision bot, it'll explain it to. you. Everything you need is there. It's free. There's no reason not to unfuck your own. future. I'll link that below so.

everyone's got it. That's realvision.com. {forward slash} diary. There'll be a. link below in the description, wherever. you're listening to this. Um thank you. Thanks for your time. Thank you for your. time. Every single time you eat, you have an. opportunity to improve your health. That's why I love Zoe because it helps. me to make the smartest food choices for. my body. As you guys probably know, Zoe. is a sponsor of my podcast. I'm also an. investor in the company, which is. important to say. I invested in the. company because Zoe combines my health. data with their world-class science.

Using these two things, Zoe guides me to. better health every single time I make a. food choice and eat, which means I have. more energy, better sleep, better mood, and I'm less hungry. And the best part. about Zoe is that it's backed by their. recent clinical trial, something called. the method study, which is the gold. standard of scientific research. I. started Zoe just over a year ago now, and I've been able to track my progress. week after week so I can learn how to be. even smarter the week after. And if you. haven't joined Zoe yet, I'm going to. give you 10% off when you join Zoe.

today. Just use the code Steven10 at. checkout. So many of you have asked me. for a bloody code for Zoe, and here is. your opportunity. Steven10 at checkout. There may not be another one.