Iran War Expert: “I Worry They Will Attack Us On Home Soil!” | Robert Pape

Iran is stronger today than it was. before the [music] war started. And this. is literally the nightmare scenario that. we've been worrying [music] about. And. the reason you're having me here is. because in the next few months, the. world economic crisis is going to grow. >> And it does appear that you've been. largely correct about what you said. would happen. >> It's because I've been modeling the. bombing of Iran for 20 years. And I've. advised [music] every White House from. 2001 to 2024 on different issues related. to conflict. And right now we're coming.

into the stage [music] three prediction. We're like on the Titanic and we're. about to hit the iceberg. [music] And. when the iceberg hits there's not enough. lifeboats for everybody. So we are. knocking on the door of the world. literally running out of oil. And then. on top of that even we have another set. of [music] problems. For example, Iran. is attacking our base in Jordan and. we're in our ninth day of bombing in a. row. And the scale of eliminating the. drone [music] and missile threat is much.

bigger than people realize because they. hide those drones everywhere. >> So, how real is the risk that US will. [music] do some kind of limited ground. operation boots on the ground in Iran? >> It's bordering on 70% now, probably. [music] by the end of this week. But I'm. concerned about terrorist attack because. controlling pieces of homeland territory. is the biggest risk factor [music] for. suicide terrorism. So the choice is do. we have a global economic crisis, [music] possibly a recession, possibly. worse, or do we let Iran control the.

straight of hormones? >> This is not a good place to be. So what. is the most [music] probable next thing. that you think happens? >> I think that question, Stephen, is the. most [music] important question in the. world. And I think the answer is. This is super interesting to me. My team. given me this report to show me how many. of you that watch this show subscribe. And some of you have told us according. to this that you are unsubscribe from. the channel randomly. So favor to ask. all of you. Please could you check right. now if you've hit the subscribe button.

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promise since the very beginning of the. D of Sio, and I will not let you down. Please help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get on with the show. [music]. Robert P, with everything that's going. on with Iran at the moment, the US Iran. war, and everything that I've learned. from you in the two previous. conversations we've had on the D of a. CEO, I'm guessing that you're not really. surprised by what we're seeing now. No, I'm not. I've been modeling the bombing. of Iran for 20 years. The uh the fact is.

the modeling has held up and literally. month by month by month uh when we were. first here the big surprise for most. people was that we bombed the regime in. Iran and it still stood. It survived. even though uh we killed the supreme. leader and something like 137 of their. top leaders. Think about that. So that. would be like if somebody killed our. president, his wife, the first lady,

members of the first family, half of the. cabinet, all of the leaders in the. Pentagon, all of the leaders in the CIA, and about a third of the Congress. That is what we did to Iran in those. opening weeks in March. And nonetheless, that regime survived. And that was. something the modeling showed for that. 20 years that was based on uh. substantial um patterns in history uh. where air power alone had never toppled.

a regime going all the way back to World. War I. Most people had not really heard. that before. Many people even in the. military did not fully know how much. President Trump went up against the. weight of history. Then we shifted. We. shifted to uh six weeks of a bombing. campaign. And then what did we do? we. shifted over to a two-month blockade. Well, that was another version of. punishment. So, the US said that they. were going to block the straight of. Hormuse, basically trying to take. control of it themselves and therefore.

kind of punishing the rest of the world. >> U well, they they didn't want to punish. the world. What they were that did. happen, but what they wanted to do was. punish Iran. So, they were trying to. coers Iran to get the government to. surrender control of Hormuz. So keep in. mind what happened is on February 28th. that regime change bombing happened and. it went on for a few days but by March. 2nd March 3rd Iran controlled Hormuz.

literally within a few days the ships. stopped cold and they basically have not. reopened except for teenytiny periods of. time in a small in a modest way and then. you're stuck. How do you get Iran to. give up control of Hormuz or do you let. Iran continue to uh control Hormuz for. as far as the eye can see? That's been. the dilemma we've been in, Stephen, since really the first week in March. And now it's become clearer to the world.

that has the core dilemma. We're at a. fork in the road. Either we physically. take hormones back all those other. tactou didn't work. didn't get. >> theou. >> uh the memorandum of understanding. >> which was the I sat here with JD Vance. and he told me that they were about to. sign an agreement with Iran to. ultimately end the war and they had that. agreement. >> Yeah. >> JD told me that it was about to be. signed. Couple weeks later here we are.

They're back to bombing each other. >> Yeah. There's really two big issues with. this Stephen with theou. the memorandum of understanding. Um, I. do believe that uh uh Vice President. Vance sincerely thought it was going to. uh had a good chance of ending the war. Uh, but there's a big problem here, Stephen, which is when you listen to. Vice President Vance, he approached this. as a business deal. So, he kept talking. about all the benefits that were going. to come to Iran if they performed a fee.

for service. We want the straight open. and we're going to offer you money in. different ways if you will open the. straight. Well, this is just a. fundamental misunderstanding of. international politics. This may work. great in real estate. I'm not saying it. doesn't, but in a ma major war like. this, what's at stake is the balance of. power. The balance of power. Now, I want. to explain that before the war, before. the war started, there was a balance of.

power where America was ascended. Israel. was the rising power and Iran was. actually the declining power in the. region. What happened almost within. again two weeks of the war starting is. the balance of power was shifting. dramatically when Iran became in control. of form. This represents tremendous. power in the future. that wealth, all of. the potential that uh even though it. hadn't been realized yet, equates to not.

just money to put in coffers, but it. equates to military power. It equates to. the ability to influence other states in. the region to build a sphere of. influence. This is power in terms of. major power politics that was shifting. here. And so with theou as uh you look. at theou JD Vance appears we could just. look at it he appears to have thought. this was a business deal. So he appears. to have thought we're going to hold up. the uh promise of say $300 billion it.

will eventually fall on you if you will. just to agree to do what we want and. behave. Those aren't the clauses that. matter to Iran. The clauses that. mattered to Iran were the clauses which. directly relate to the balance of power. in solidifying Iran. uh its control of Hormuz and essentially. thisou is fundamentally a road map to.

Iran becoming the regional hegeimon. >> Heggeimon what does that mean? >> The most dominant state in the Persian. Gulf in the Middle East. Wait, so you're. saying that this agreement would make. them the most dominant state in the. Middle East? >> Absolutely. >> So why wouldn't they sign it within a. heartbeat? >> They did. They did. Iran sign. In fact, most of these points were exactly the. points that President Trump said he. would never sign in April when Iran. presented the initial 14-point plan in. April. And the key back at war then?

Well, well, let me just explain the key. the key things that happened here is. that number one, notice in article five, it says that Iran will make the. arrangements uh with Hormuz, that is the. ships with Hormuz and it will not charge. for 60 days. It doesn't say it will. never charge. It says only 60 days. So, think about that. That this is already. it written into the agreement that. President Trump is signing. And then if.

you say, well, what's going to happen. down the road? It's going to be Iran and. Oman who are going to determine the. future fees. There's no mention here of. the United States. There's no clause to. even let the United States wiggle itself. in. This is a perfectly clearly written. clause. And this basically gives Iran. control of the straight of Hormuz and. also of the the the discretion to set. the fees for as far as the I can see. with no constraint whatsoever.

>> How do we know that this is the actual. document? >> Because both the Iranian government and. the White House put out exactly the same. document word for word um so that we can. actually compare them literally word for. word. So this is exactly the document. that President Trump signed. There's no. question that uh we have like an earlier. draft. Now, there were some earlier. drafts leaked by Bloomberg. That's not. what this is. This is the final one. But. let me go a little bit further here, Steve. So, here we're talking about the.

strategic base of Iran. And keep in. mind, controlling hormuz means. controlling 20% of the world's oil. That's a fantastic amount of wealth and. strategic power to build on in the. future. No limit says that nothing about. you can't spend it on missiles, anything. else. But up here with Lebanon, the. first article. So here, >> so when you say article, this document. contains 10, is it 10? >> 14 different points. And when you say. >> 14 different points and there's three. points that are really the critical.

action points that matter here. this. promise of $300 billion dollars down the. road, this is so far, you know, th this. is like holding out um uh funny money to. the Iranians. These are the things that. are actually short-term because this is. happening now. >> So, point one, you're saying. >> point one I want to come back to, Stephen, because I want to explain this. is Iran's strategic base. >> Point number five, >> point number five. But what happens to. become the dominant power in the region? You need more than a strategic base. You.

want a sphere of influence. You want a. sphere of influence here. And can I just. can we so I'll hold this up here. Is. that. >> Yeah, that's good. That's good. Point. number five is controlling the straight. of Hormuz. But many of uh the different. countries including Saudi Arabia. You. have already started to have pipelines. to bypass the straight of Hormos. There. were plans to do this for years. They. were too expensive. But almost. immediately uh they started to do that. So the Saudi Saudi Arabia started to put.

out four to five million barrels of oil. a day starting in mid-March uh into the. Red Sea on a pipeline that had already. been built and hadn't been used. There's. a a little area here called Fujyra which. is where the UAE had a pipeline that's. almost 2 million barrels a day. So 20. million barrels a day were going through. Hormuz almost immediately 7 million were. being bypassed. Then there's all this. discussion that Iraq might build some. pipelines. There might be other.

pipelines here going through Syria. So. what if you're Iran, you now control. this. But notice it's a declining asset. that way. If you only control Hormuz. within 5 years, good chance your power. is going to be whittleled away. What you. want to do is you want a sphere of. influence. So what Iran started to talk. about is their security resistance belt. where they wanted to control and they.

said from the Mediterranean. to the Red Sea to the Gulf. This was the. leaders of the Revolutionary Guard. And. why would you do that? Because you want. to prevent all of those bypasses to. Hormuz. And they're already happening. And where's the key one? You don't you. already have the Houthies down here. You. have Hezbollah here, but you want to. make sure the Houthies are pretty secure. right here. It was. >> So, just again for the people that can't.

see. >> Yeah. >> So, you're saying the Houthies are. pretty secure where. >> the Houthies are pretty secure down here. in Yemen. They've been fighting uh with. the Saudis for quite some time. They've. held their own. Uh we fought a war with. the the uh the Houthies in May 2025. to try to get them to uh pull back from. a temporary shutdown of the Red Sea. And. we lost essentially. Um so we couldn't. beat them. But the big one that was at. issue was uh Lebanon. And it's and my.

point is it's not so much that they love. Hezbollah. They do of course they've had. long time uh decades of relationships. with Hezbollah ideologically. There's. there uh there's good reasons for that. But there's something else that's a. power reason that's being ignored uh. here, which is you want Hezbollah to. have drones right here in Lebanon. So if. there's a pipeline that comes out here. through Syria, if you've got some other. pipelines that are coming out here, you've got Hezbollah here that can act.

as your Houthies. They can actually. attack the shipping. So now you have a. you're you're Iran. You're a major. power. You're the dominant power in the. region. You don't just control this area. here and the straight of. >> the straight of Formuz and Iran itself. You have an arc, a security arc here. that in uh is a sphere of influence, but. it's an operational sphere of influence. This is not just a piece of paper or. something to talk about. This is what's. guaranteeing you. You control all of.

that oil whether it the oil from the. Persian Gulf comes out through Hormuz, whether it comes out through Syria or. whether it comes out through the Red. Sea. And that's what article one is. about. So how come. >> that's what I'm saying is not when I. listen to Vice President Vance, which. I've listened to your interview and. other interviews, a super smart guy. Okay, this is not a matter of that. Okay. Uh but he's thinking of it as a. business deal. We want Hormuz open.

what's it going to take to pay? They're. not looking at that. They're looking at. they want to be a regional hedgeimon. This is their roadmap and that's why. they stuck to those goals. But they. signed this document, but then the war. has kicked off anyway again because what. happened is President Trump signed the. document. He owned the document for it. for a day. He explained that he signed. the document because this was literally. four weeks ago because the world was. going to run out of oil in four weeks.

and he wanted to open Hormuse. So, President Trump saw this as a way to try. to uh open Hormuse. But what happened. immediately after President Trump signed. the document literally starting in the. next 48 hours is uh President Trump. started to and his administration. started to undermine the document. violate the clauses in that document. So. issue number one was Secretary Rubio. establishing a framework accord. agreement in Lebanon which essentially.

would lock in Israel's military presence. in Lebanon as far as the eye could see. Whereas article one in the document says. that uh the United States would. guarantee the territorial integrity of. Lebanon which I'm everybody would. realize would mean Israel is is. violating the territorial integrity of. Lebanon. It's not ensuring it. So that. would mean Israel can't be locked in. there and still be faithful to Article.

One. So the framework agreement. immediately violates article one. The. second thing that happened and this. happened shortly after the framework. accord is President Trump started to. encourage uh passage through the. straight of Hormuz uh through the. southern uh there's three routes through. the straight of Hormuz. The central. route which used to be in existence the. main route before the war now that's. where the 80 mines are. So, nobody's. using the Sentra. They're either passing. through the southern avenue, which is. the one close to uh Oman, or they're.

passing through the Iranian passage, which is, of course, near the coast of. Iran. And what President Trump did is he. started to encourage this passageway. ships to um bypass or pass through. Hormuz on the southern passageway, but. with no coordination with Iran, with no. um even u often with their transponders. turned off. In fact, President Trump was. bragging about this as his secret way to. sort of uh bypass Iran's control of the. straight of form. He literally bragged.

about this on multiple posts on true. social. Well, that directly uh. contravenes article 5. Um and then the. third thing that happened is if you look. at we haven't looked at article 11 but. if we look at article 11 you would see. that Iran was um uh due to have some of. its frozen asset some of its assets that. were seized by the United States and. have been held for decades unfrozen. and it and there's a specific sentence. which gives Iran the exclusive right to.

determine um what's going to happen with. that money and what President Trump said. is they can have their money but only if. they give it to the farmers the US. farmers and buy American grain. That's. the third violation of theou. So what. happened here Stephen is President Trump. owned theou he and was faithful to it uh. for at least a day maybe two and this. represented a strategic defeat for the. United States. And he even explained why.

he accepted that strategic defeat very. clearly and forthrightly. I call that. owning the loss. He owned the loss for. about a day or two, but then he tried to. reverse the loss almost immediately, Stephen. And that's how we're back at. war. Because the big miscalculation that. happened in this period was assuming. that if President Trump didn't restart. the war, the war would be over. The mis. what? Who started the war? Who started.

to shoot the ships in the straight of. Formuz? It was the Iranians. Why did. they do that? Because we were violating. theou, bypassing their control of the. straight of Hormuz, and that means. preventing Iran from becoming the. regional power, the rising regional. power, ultimately the regional hegeimon. So this is why they violated. It wasn't. so much a legal understanding. This is. great power politics. Stephen, Iran.

wants to be the dominant state in the. region. The United States does not want. Iran to be the dominant state in the. region. That has what is what this war. has been about since the first week in. March and now it's 5 months later and. we're still at that point. There should be a button just down below. here and if it says subscribed, you're. already subscribed. If it says.

subscriber, that means you're not yet. And if you're not subscribed, please. could you do us a favor and hit that. button? It helps the show more than you. know. And according to the algorithm, you're someone that watches our show, but you haven't yet hit that button. Thank you so much. Did Iran charge. people to go through the Straight of. Hormuse before this? >> No, never did. Did they control the. Straight of Hormuz at all? Well, before. uh the war started, not at all. Before. the before February 28, Iran did not. control the straight of Hormuz. What. Iran did is it moved from survival to.

ambition. So Iran saw there was an. opportunity with the bombing uh because. the United States had no mil we didn't. even have our navy here. There was no. means whatsoever uh to sort of offset. this this uh Iran's uh control of the. straight of hormones. Nothing at all. Iran took this as an opportunity and the. opportunity was to seize power. So is it. fair to hypothesize that actually this.

war might have strengthened Iran because. now it has this control over energy on a. global basis that it didn't have before. >> Without a doubt. Without a doubt, Stephen. I don't say this with any. happiness. There's really no question at. this point that Iran is stronger today. than it was before the war started on. February 28th. And that's because it. controls uh the Strait of Hormuz, meaning that it can threaten at will.

virtually any ship that goes through the. Straight of Hormuz. It's demonstrated. this over and over and over again. Even. when the ships turn off their. transponders, they are still able to. threaten ships as they go through. And. every time a ship tries to run the. gauntlet, they run into a drone, a mine, they run into basically Iran's barrier, and that is Iran's power. >> There was a a tweet that went viral this. week um about this. I'm going to read.

the tweet here. It says, "I'm confused. The US has the most powerful military on. Earth. We've bombed the hell out of Iran. for 4 months. Trump says their air. force, navy, and nearly all of their. missile capabilities are destroyed. So, how is Iran still capable of hitting US. bases right now? Because only a small. fraction of its drone arsenal is. necessary uh and missile arsenal in. order to inflict that damage. Iran. entered this war with thousands, we.

think tens of thousands of drones, missile uh ballistic missiles, anti-shipping missiles, which are lower. sea skimming cruise missiles. Um, and. even though we have destroyed large. fractions of their uh of their missiles, they have plenty left over to hit these. uh these targets because they're doing. saturation attacks. They're essentially. doing swarms. They're saturating our uh.

our defensive capability and the the uh. the drones and missiles to get through. plenty enough to damage it to the point. we can barely use it if if if at all. >> So is it is it mainly drones that. they're using at the moment to conduct. these attacks on the straight of Himuz. and on US bases? Uh it's been a. combination in the m in in March. It was. mostly intermediate range ballistic. missiles and then drones since about the. middle of March. Um until just quite.

recently it's mostly been drones except. for Israel when Israel's been attacked. It's it's been very heavily with. ballistic missiles. Uh but what you're. seeing now that's just in the last week. is you're starting to see the use of. ballistic missiles. You're seeing the. use of cruise missiles. These are these. sea skimming missiles here and they're. being used in against multiple targets. So the full arsenal that Iran has the. full range of the arsenal it appears to.

be fully there full stocked very well. and they're showing no signs of running. out of ammo. If anybody's running out of. ammo, it might be America running out of. interceptors to shoot things down. Um, but we don't know that as a fact. And I. think that what you're seeing is Iran. has been highly intelligent intelligent. about how it has deployed its its. missiles. Trump said they have no navy. It's been knocked out. They have no air.

force that's been knocked out. They have. no air detection that's been knocked. out. Their radar has been knocked out. And just about everything's been knocked. out. Virtually everything they have has. been knocked out. He said that on Truth. Social in May 2026. If everything has. been knocked out, >> Mhm. >> then how come there's no safe passage. through the Straight of Hermoose? How. come this weekend we saw more Americans. tragically die um because of Iranian. attacks? >> Because what they have left we can't.

knock out and is plenty to do the. damage. That's the fundamental problem. We took out the easy stuff to hit. they. didn't need it in order to seize control. of hormones and keep hormones and start. to defend themselves against uh more. aggressive pressure. And the bottom line. is that it's it's very difficult, if not. impossible, to eliminate that. capability. We would do it in a. heartbeat if we could right away. >> Explain to me in just simple terms why.

it's so difficult to remove that. capability. You know, I was looking at. this picture here which shows the size. of a drone relative to another object. So, I guess there was two questions. which is like where do they hide these. and how easy it is is it to make one of. these drones? So, they hide those drones. Stephen everywhere. Okay. >> Okay. They can they're in drone caverns. They're in warehouses. They're everywhere. They could be. So.

that drone, just to kind of give you a. sense here, would easily fit in this. room. But the reason this is so. difficult is notice how small that is. here. That that drone compared to the. scale of where it could be. And this is. what I really want to uh show you. because this is I think the hardest part. to explain to to people as I'm talking. in whatever format I'm talking is it's. the scale of eliminating the drone and. missile threat is much bigger than.

people realize because they're hearing. measurements well we've destroyed x% and. y% and that's why you're getting the. question but if you look at this map. this is what they where these drones. these shah Heeds 136 could literally be. anywhere in this radius, 500 mile area. And notice how huge this area is. This. area, this area like this is bigger than.

California. It's one and a half times. the size of California. >> So I guess it's like trying to find a. truck in California. >> It's like trying to find a truck in. California. These little things here are. the Shahed drones. Yeah. >> Okay. And what we're doing in this area, which is mountainous. So, this is why we. have a a threedimensional, it's not just. a two-dimensional problem. It's a. threedimensional problem. >> We'll show some of these uh visuals on.

screen now just to show what the train. where they're hiding these drones might. be like. >> They could be anywhere in these. mountains. There's all kinds. And if we. kind of imagine this as a visual. So. this is the general problem here we have. which is just this stuff could be. anywhere. And now these are the drones. and this is the terrain that the drones. are going to hide in. And notice I've. just sprinkled some here. But now I'm. going to cover these up with more.

terrain. And notice you can't see those drones. anymore. And now I'm going to put in. some more drones somewhere else. And now. we're going to put another layer in. And. this is this is again it's the. three-dimensional part of the problem. Meaning hard to find from the air. Now. if I get my people out and I start going. in now, I could start to dig them out. But let's just keep doing this for a. while. So now I'm putting in another say. 20 drones. And I'm going to cover it yet.

again. And then I'm going to put in uh another. set of drones. And I'm covering it yet again. >> I guess you could put all the drones in. there and you you would still be able to. cover them. >> You would. Yes. But you wouldn't do it. in You would do it in layers. So they're. going to make it so that if you find. one, you're going to have to work really. hard. You have to get them drone by. drone by drone or at least in clusters. of them. >> I guess also an important point of. context is they're also making new ones. this whole time.

>> Exactly. So our estimates that we have. leaked from the Pentagon are in April. That's months ago. these drones, they're they were making u. 55,000 a year and giving them to Russia. So just think about that. That's. thousands every single month. Why. haven't they made uh another 5 or 10,000. drones since April? If you want this to. open, so let me just straight for. >> the straight of form. So now let me just. explain. So this is our problem. If you.

want the straight of Formoose to open, it's not good enough to say, "Oh, look. I' I've found like dozens or hundreds of. these drones." You've got to persuade. the shipping companies that their ships. are safe. They don't obey orders from the. Pentagon. You can't order the shippers. to go through. >> because the ships are expensive. >> The ships are expensive and the crews. don't want to Oh, in the many millions. millions and millions of dollars. I.

don't know the exact amount of these uh. tankers, but each tanker will carry. between 700,000 and over a million. barrels of oil. And so they have quite a. the just and you can do the math right. there to see how much each ship is worth. carrying that much uh uh that much oil. >> I was looking at the cost here. It says. when you combine a brand new vessel with. a full tank of oil, a sh single tank. crossing the straight of Hermuz is a. floating asset worth 300 million. >> Oh wow. See, I didn't learn I learned. something from you every time. Um, and.

>> that's not even the lives on board, which again are going to cause an. insurance problem, but also no one wants. to people to die. >> Well, and they don't want to die. So, you're going to have mutants. They're. not going to. So, this is why you're. seeing more ships leaving than you're. seeing ships come in. And the ships that. are coming in are very heavily coming to. Iran's ports. That's one of the reasons. President Trump put the blockade back. on. It's because what happened here is. theou this whole idea is not opening up.

the straight of hormuz it's not. preventing what's going to come in the. next few weeks maybe month which is the. world economic crisis we are knocking on. the door of what President Trump told us. he was trying to avoid which is the. world literally running out of oil and. just today before we started the. Houthies which big ally of Iran. So just. to come back here and and reshow the. map, uh remember I said that once uh the.

straight of Hormuz became shut down, there was 2 million of barrels coming. out every day through um for the UAE. coming out through Fyra and then four to. 5 million uh coming out from Saudi. Arabian oil going out to the Red Sea. Uh. and this is the the port there at the. Red Sea. Well, the Houthies have just. shut this down literally today. >> Oh, really? >> Literally before we came on. Uh, it. happened about 6 hours ago. This has.

been escalating for several weeks. Iran's been asking for this. This is. part of the general escalation that. we're seeing. >> Okay. So, we've got the Straight of. Hermoose closed. We've got the Houthies. closing. >> the Red Sea, >> the Red Sea. So, there's no oil flowing. through there. Yeah. >> So, are we on the verge of an economic. crisis if things don't change quickly? >> Yes. Yes. This is a this is literally. the nightmare scenario that we've been. worrying about. And the reason is is. this. Go back and let's let's think.

about this from the 20 million barrels. of oil that was going through the. straight of Hormuz. So when Iran gained. control of the straight of Hormuz, what. happened immediately is the uh Saudi. Arabia and the UEE started to bypass. Hormuz with 7 million barrels a day. So. that means only 13 million at issue, right? That's a little that's helpful. The next is the strategic petroleum. reserve, the United States. And we.

started to release about five or 6. million barrels a week through the. through the strategic oil. >> when uh we started to do this. It's. right around the middle of March. I. can't remember the exact date, but. notice that you put a big dent in that. And so that's one of the reasons the oil. markets did not go crazy right away. >> So I've got some data here then. says, um, President Trump authorized the. emergency release of 172 million barrels. of oil from the strategic reserve.

designed to be pumped out over roughly. 120 days. This wasn't just a US issue or. the US acting alone. The US draw down. was part of a massive coordinated effort. by 32 member nations of the. International Energy Agency who. collectively agreed to release 400. million barrels from their emergency. stock piles. Because these massive. releases um were done to offset the. Hormuz blockade, the US strategic. reserve has been heavily depleted. And.

as of July 2026, the reserve has dropped. down to roughly 300 million barrels, which marks the lowest level the reserve. has since 1983, a more than 40year low. They're being. depleted. Once you spend your reserve, you don't get it refilled. And that's. what I think President Trump was talking. about when he said we're about to run. out of oil in four weeks. That was. exactly the date because we've just run. to the date of uh that that quote. What. you just read is we're coming to about.

the 120th day. And so what that means is. all of that cushion that we had in the. system to protect the ga the price of. gas already went up. Now you have even. more risk. And then on top of that, Stephen, we have another set of problems. besides the oil itself, which is. refining capacity in the world. So we we. don't uh put crude oil in our cars. We. put gasoline in our cars. Diesel as. well. Well, how do you get the gas and.

the diesel? You refine the crude. So. that means the refineries need to work. Well, where are much of the world's. refineries? in the Persian Gulf. Not. just oil comes through the Persian Gulf, refined product, they're called. distillates, they come through the. Persian Gulf as well. Now, so that means. you've shut down something like uh 25%. or a third of the world's refining. capacity. Now, let's marry this to what's. happening with Russia and Ukraine's.

blasting Russia refineries in Russia. So. what's happening Stephen is you are. getting not just the decline of crude. itself is about to run out but the. refining capacity now has been heavily. uh uh strained and and limited. Uh it. might be down you know 40%. I don't know. the exact number but it's something on. that order. And what you're seeing then. is what I think President Trump was. seeing a month ago, which is he wanted.

the straight of form moves to open, but. he also didn't want to own the L. And. what President Trump has decided is. he'd rather take the risk with the. world's economy than own the L, own the. loss, and maybe he'll change his mind, >> which means he'd rather take the risk. with the world's economy than just own. the L. So what would owning the L in. this scenario? opponent the L would. allow Iran to follow through with. article 5. So if we go back to article 5. >> to control to control the straight.

>> to control the strait on its terms. >> but they that would be set preceded for. all of these straits. >> Yes. >> Around the world that. >> that's exactly right and you can't have. that. >> Well these are the choices we have. Stephen. So, so the choice is do we have. um uh a global economic crisis, possibly. recession, possibly worse, or do we let. Iran control the straight of foremost? >> This is not a good place to be. >> Well, that's the fork in the road that I. was telling you was the stage three.

dilemma. So, that's exactly where we. were in Mar. So, so Stephen, just to. explain to your audience because they. were trying to figure out how are we. getting here? This is what the 20 years. of modeling was really showing. we would. very quickly get to this fork in the. road. It wouldn't take months and. months. It would happen right away. And. President Trump has been trying to avoid. the escalation trap. This is called an. escalation trap. And he's been trying to. avoid that trap. He tried to avoid it. with bombing for 6 weeks. He tried to.

avoid it with the blockade. He tried. signing theou. He let JD Vance offer. money. And that that none of those were. were actually working. And what he where. he is now is still at this fork in the. road. The dilemma of the escalation. trap. Either he owns the loss which it. means everything you just said and. becomes known as the president who. allowed not just the straight of form. moves to be uh be controlled but set a. precedent for other countries and other.

non-state actors to control their their. choke points. or we have the um we take. it back physically. Are we going to. physically take it back? >> So, we'll go through the stages in the. escalation trap at straight away after. this after we move on from this point. around oil because I think some of my. audience might not know that this. escalation trap is historically. predictable and that you've been talking. about this for a long time and it also. allows us to understand exactly what. happens next. Um I was quite shocked. when you just said that Trump said.

recently that the US would run out of. oil within 4 weeks. So, I did I just. looked down at some research here and it. says that during a recent press. conference at the G7 summit in June. 2026, President Trump made a blunt. admission about how dangerously low. global energy oil stock piles have. become due to the ongoing crisis in the. straight of Hammoose. His direct quote. was, "We run out of reserves at about 4. weeks." You know, there are reserves all. over the world and we would run really,

really low. we would run out and. there'll be a time when you wouldn't be. able to get it. It would be bedum. >> Yes. >> Why is he saying that? Isn't that. because. >> doesn't that make him look bad? >> It it makes him he's being I think. forthright in why he signed theou which. is to avoid that bedum the world. economic crisis. However, the problem for President Trump is in. order to avoid the bedum, he has to let. Iran control the straight of H formuz,

establish that sphere of influence I was. explaining and he almost immediately. after he said that statement within 48. hours undermined thatou that would have. avoided that. Had theou just been uh. implemented as written, we may not be. sitting here today talking about the. impending world crisis. And I believe. one of the reasons we're knocking on the. door of more escalation right now is.

because President Trump is desperate to. open the straight of foremost. I think. he's taking low risk uh high risk. military option mil. I think he's. pursuing military options he likely. knows are unlikely to work, but they're. his best chance to open hormuz before. the crisis literally hits. >> But there's also another before, which. is the midterm elections. >> Yes. Am I right in thinking that this. midterm election takes place in 3 months.

time and if his approval rating is low. at that point because of what's going on. with the war because when Americans go. to the pump to fill up their cars they. notice the prices are way high higher. than usual that means those Americans in. the election in the midterm elections. will vote for the Democrats which means. he will lose the Congress. So he. basically needs to make sure Americans. are happy in three months time. He he. needs to take the best chance he can can. to make that happen. Okay. And I think.

that what happened here, Stephen, is he. his quote, you just quoted him, I think. it was June 17th. >> He's saying that within a month those. reserves are going to run out and we're. heading to that bedum that economic. crisis and that is already happening. His s four weeks later, we're right on. that trajectory. That trajectory has not. changed. Maybe we've bought an extra. week or two of time because some oil did. get out from the from the Persian Gulf.

Not that much, but enough for a few. weeks here. So maybe it's it's going to. now not fall on August 1st. Maybe it'll. be August say 15th or 17th. But it will. hit. It's And that's what he was. And. now I think he's he sees when it hits. he's going to lose uh there's a good. chance that the Republicans will lose. more seats in the House and in the. Senate. That will make him the lamest of. lame ducks for his last two years. Uh it. may not be that he would be removed from.

office. That's probably not going to. happen. But it could be that he will be. impeached again. He will be tied in. knots by the uh by the Democratic. controlled House or Democratic. controlled House and Senate. And um this. is what he's trying to offset. And but. he knows something that most of us I. think um are not really taking seriously. uh which is that the world is like we're. like on the Titanic and we're about to. hit the iceberg. And maybe that iceberg. moved a little bit further away but.

we're still right on the trajectory to. hit that iceberg. And it's coming and. when the iceberg hits there's not enough. lifeboats for everybody. And who's going. to be short of lifeboats? The. Republicans. And that's what I think why. I think people made the mistake when. they said, "Well, President Trump. couldn't possibly escalate before the. midterms." Couldn't possibly for weeks, Stephen. I've been on shows talking. about, you know, why President Trump. will escalate maybe after the midterms, maybe next year, but he certainly and I.

kept trying to explain this is not. that's probably not right. And that's. what you're seeing now. You're seeing. that that President Trump is desperate. to try to open the straight of Formos. He's he I think is being told probably. directly from his military these options. are very low uh risk. They're very high. risk. They're very unlikely to succeed. But now that the Titanic is going to hit. the iceberg, his only other choice is to. completely walk back and say, "You're.

right, Oron. You control her moves. You. set the fees. You don't have to make any. limits on your nuclear program. You are. the fourth center of world power. And I, Donald Trump, it happened under my. watch. That's a big L to wear on your. chest, Stephen. And that would be true, I think, for any president. This is what. Lynden Johnson faced in Vietnam. Uh, we. now have the tapes that Johnson was.

making in the White House in. conversations. It wasn't just Nixon. making tapes here. Johnson uh was making. tapes. And we now have tapes of Johnson. as he's making decisions to escalate the. Vietnam War, explaining that he knows. this is very unlikely to end the war. It's likely to make it worse. And why is. he doing it? He's doing it because he's.

trying to uh hold on to his uh Great. Society program just for another four or. five months. And what he's hoping is. that even though the escalation is. likely not to work, there's some tiny. chance it will. And in four or five. months, he'll be able to pull a rabbit. out of the hat. He became uh it failed. domestically. Lyndon Johnson had to uh. pull back from running for reelection. because of the escalations in the. Vietnam War. And President Trump is.

running the same risk that even though I. believe that he's doing this because. he's trying to give him him himself and. the Republicans the best chance to win. uh in November, uh it may not work. That's why I think President Trump. already planted the seed of uh China. meddling in the elections. he's already. started the conversation uh that um uh. that there's another possible stone. election in our future. This time.

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Hey Jen is already used by 30 million. people, including 85% of the Fortune. 100. Whether you're building an audience. on social media, launching an online. course, or rolling out training across. your team, check out Hey Genen now. Your. first three videos are totally free at. heyen.com/doac. That's h een.com/doac. See you there. On this point of the escalation trap, um, it has several stages to it, the. escalation trap, as far as I understand.

>> Uh, yes, I think you have the picture. Do we have the picture? I have a I have. the escalation ladder. >> Yeah. Yes. So, I made this I think it. was uh something like March 2nd or March. 3rd. >> Okay. So, for people that can't see the. visual, we'll also explain what we're. showing here, but we will put it on the. screen for those that can see. >> Yeah. So, what I did um is I was um uh. trying to find a way to um graphically. show the escalation trap. And what this. looks like for those who can't see is an.

upside down pyramid. So basically it. starts small at the bottom and gets. worse and worse and more and more red. and more and more red as you get through. more and more stages as you go to the. top. In the beginning you start with. limited strike. That's the bombing of. leadership bomb. You kill the leader. You kill uh you you try to topple the. regime with leadership to uh and that. leads to retaliation. Stage two. Stage. two retaliation is Iran takes hormones. and that then leads to us doing some.

retaliation. I would still call it in. stage two by the way. Um that's why I. kind of kept it the same color where. we're doing the uh six weeks bombing. That's also where the blockade is. And. notice then you get to this red stage. here. Notice it's where economic crisis. is. This is where stage three really. starts. Okay. Now we were able to offset. that economic crisis. So when we talked. in March and April, it wasn't clear, especially China, they were still. buying. So that economic crisis was a.

lot closer in um March and April than it. became after the summit with Shei. because she stopped buying 5 million. barrels of oil a day. I want to. underscore that. And what did she get. for that? Uh President Trump last week. just blamed him for uh meddling in our. election. So I'm not sure she has. thought that was a good deal. But still, we're at this point now, and this is. where stage three is, or the choice is. if you want to get off of the escalation. trap, you then have to let Iran become.

uh the gain power, become the rising. power in the region, the regional. hegeimon, and essentially the fourth. center of world power because once it um. gains power u with Hormuz, has a sphere. of influence, a year or two from now, Steven, they're very likely to have. nuclear weapons. So this is this this is. what it means to let Iran win. It's not. Iran will win and be nice. Iran is going. to become a very powerful state in the.

region. If we go further and this we. actually uh do escalate and with the. other map I'll explain what I think the. real issues are going to be between now. and the midterms. Then we're going to head into 2027 into. the deep red which is the actual forever. war. So many people this week and next. week they're going to I'm going to be on. a lot of shows Stephen talking about are. we in a forever war? Well, that's. coming. Okay, possibly. But right now, we're coming into the stage three.

question, which is are we going to. physically use force for the first time. for real to seize back control of at. least part of Hormuz and so forth? And. that is the big question because if we. do that and that's why I think the real. issue on the table right now is uh can. the United States physically open hormos. between now and the midterms. I think. that question, Stephen, is the most.

important question in the world, for the. world, for the world's economy, for. international terrorism against. Americans, uh, for whether or not we. truly will be in a forever war. This is. going to be decided between now and the. midterms. And the and the and the key. issue is, can we physically open the. straight of form moves between now and. the midterms? And I think sadly the. answer is almost surely not.

>> It's funny because you mentioned LBJ. So. I was looking at some of his quotes. around the time to see how they link. because everybody knows the Vietnam War. as being a war that just lasted forever. and really achieved nothing. I mean. that's generally the consensus that you. read about. >> And LBJ said at the time, I know we. ought not be there, but I can't get out. I just can't be the architect of. surrender. And by this, he knew that the. current strategy was a mistake, but he. felt politically paralyzed because.

backing down would be like a humiliating. defeat, which again links to Trump's. situation. He also said, "Let's get. somebody that wants to do something. besides drop a bomb, but that can go in. and take in after these damn fellas and. run them back where they belong." And by. that he meant relying entirely on. overwhelming American air power wasn't. actually solving the unconventional. ground level problem which again links. to Trump's situation as you've. described. >> That's the transition from air power.

rolling thunder to the heavier use of. ground forces and both of those of. course ultimately fail. >> He also said I don't this is again LBJ's. comments as president during the Vietnam. War. I don't think that we can fight. them 10,000 mi away from home and get. anywhere in that area. It's just the. biggest damn mess that I ever saw. By. this, he meant trying to project. military power halfway across the globe. against an enemy fighting in their own. backyard is incredibly difficult and. likely futile, which again links to the.

orange situation. And lastly, LBJ said, "A man can fight if he can see daylight. down the road somewhere, but there ain't. no daylight in Vietnam. There's not a. single bit." And by this he meant that. there was no realistic achievable end. point or path to victory for its. military strategy. And that also links. to how like when political pressures. change and you know Trump's recent. admission at the G7 that the world is. about to run out of um their energy. reserves is a stark realization that the.

current strategy is hard. It has a. deadline and there's no clear solution. in sight. >> Yeah. It's so tragic. It's so tragic. that we're essentially replaying the. Vietnam War. Trump is replaying the. decisions that Lyndon Johnson made and. coming to very similar decisions, which. is he believes as Lynden Johnson did. that even though the military escalation. would be a likely loser on the on the. battlefield, that loss would take months.

and months to play out. So there was. some chance he could pull a rabbit out. of a hat. But if he accepted immediate. abrupt defeat, that would totally. undermine and destroy his domestic. political agenda. >> So, I've got I basically before you. came, I looked at the top 20 questions. that the internet currently wants to. know about the Iran war. >> Oh, great. >> And we've knocked off a few of them. already. >> Okay. >> We've got a couple of them left. >> Yeah, I love it. Um, one of them is can. the United States actually force the.

straight of Hummus fully open with our. current strategy or does Iran now hold. lasting leverage over this critical. choke point? >> The answer is um it the United States. cannot do it and this would be an. opportunity. Stephen, could I have that. map back? >> Let me explain. Yeah, let me let me show. you what I think is really in the offing. here. >> So, a lot of people are wondering what. are we going to do with 8,000 ground. troops? So, we have somewhere around. 4,500, 5,000 Marines, somewhere around. 4,000 or so troops from the 82nd.

Airborne. What are these troops actually. going to do? And I think that what. President Trump is doing here, and I. think you can really we can really see. this if I kind of explain this is what. we are doing is we are concentrating our. forces, our naval forces here into the. Gulf of Oman. We are not moving them. through the straight of Formos where con. our carriers are in the Gulf of Oman and. also our marine expeditionary unit is in.

the Gulf of Oman. Now previously these. had been further away. the board in the Indian Ocean. We move. them here closer. And this is important. because these guns are are guns that. have range to be able to hit the shore. within about 12 mi. So what are you. doing with these ships? And what are you. doing here is you are building a force. that might be uh able to take a piece of.

territory at Charbahar or there's a um. uh right in between Bandraas and. Charbahar there is a little port town. called Jasque and this would be exactly. the kind of armada you would build in. order to take one of those objectives. of either Charbahar or Jaskque. And the. reason that you would do it politically.

for President Trump is because this. could possibly be a symbolic victory. You could possibly take the territory. and hold it for weeks. Now, why would. you be able to take the territory and. hold it for weeks? It's because this is. Pakistan. We haven't even shown the rest of Iran. here. uh Tehran is is is over here. So. maybe we want to Yeah, why don't we uh. bring the other map here as well. So.

what we have done, Stephen, is we have. concentrated our forces here in the Gulf. of Oman. This is our carriers, our. destroyers, our battleships, and they. can provide some air cover here for. ships that might pass through uh the. southern part here. So they I'm not. saying this is the only possible. mission. Uh, but those Marines and the. 82nd Airborne, they're not helping. They're not really there to help ships. pass through the straight of Hormuz, but.

they're here. Okay. At least the Marines. are here. >> Where? >> Uh, we don't they're somewhere in the. straight of in the Gulf of Oman. We. don't know exactly where they are. That. would not be good. >> You're just saying that cuz some people. can't hear. >> Yeah, that's right. So, they're in the. Gulf of Oman uh here, which is to the. east of Hormuz. The Gulf, the Persian. Gulf is to the west of Hormuz. So Hormuz. is the true choke point between these. two Gulfs and the Gulf of Oman here is. then what's north of it is the. souththeastern coast of Iran which is.

the the least populated part of Iran. Iran's population is mostly up here. around the word Iran. >> So you're saying that the US might take. a small part of Iran from here? >> A small part of Iran. >> with ground troops? >> With ground troops? That's right. and. literally hold it here uh in order to. get a symbolic victory and in order for. Iran to knock us out, they have to. redirect all of their attention to this.

Uh and this would be this is why I don't. think it's going to work because. ultimately they will do this. Uh but in. the short term in a period of say a few. weeks or so, this uh there's a there's a. chance and I say it's a low chance. I'm. not trying to tell you I would advocate. for this. I would not advocate for this. I'm trying to explain what these troop. these forces are doing here because. otherwise there's no point in having. these forces here. >> Okay. So, some questions on this then. If they if the US do I guess invade Iran.

from. >> capture. port little one of these port towns. >> from the sort of south east here. >> That's right. >> This would mean that Iran have a target. to kill American soldiers. >> That's right. And the cost of losing. American soldiers, especially back home. in America, would be tremendous. >> You're talking about hundreds dead over. a period of at least weeks. >> And this would be just terrible. politically for boots to be on the.

ground and be dying in Iran. >> Well, it will be divisive politically. So for people that are opposed to the. war, this will make them even more. opposed to the war. But for people that. are supporting the war, and this is the. part of the politics that I study, Stephen, uh it's important to understand. that there's a large part of MAGA that. is incredibly supportive of this war. In. fact, the opinion polls uh uh tend to. show that more MAGA supports regime. change uh for Iran than oppose it. So,

this is not like MAGA has become Tucker. Carlson country or something. This is. still Trump country uh here and they. want Trump to win. Well, what you are. seeing here is that if there are if. there are troops that are killed, you. are likely going to see, and you're. seeing this on Fox News this morning. after three more died over the weekend, you're seeing a tremendous amount of. support for our troops and therefore the. war. >> Okay, so I've got some numbers here. >> about public support. Based on recent.

polling from mid 2026, the ongoing. military conflict with Iran remains. highly unpopular with the general. American public, but support is sharply. divided along political lines. Overall, roughly 27 to 34% of Americans support. the war, while a solid majority of 53 to. 57% oppose it. But then when you look at. MAGA, it says that 77% to 85% of MAGA. support the war. There's a MAGA.

Republicans and only 5% to 14% of MAGA. Republicans oppose the war. >> That's right. So what you are seeing is. the divisions in our country which have. been building for years. are still in existence with this war and. they're becoming hardened in this war. And if as deaths occur, this is likely. to harden the division, not shift, at.

least not shift much of MAGA to the. anti-war position. And the reason is. because just as Trump complained when. President Biden pulled out from uh. Afghanistan. there, this is going to be uh not just a. loss for Trump if he pulls out. This. will be viewed as a as as an insult to. the people who died. And so people will. say, "So if we leave, did those people. die as a mistake? Was it a mistake? Is.

their death were their deaths. worthless?" That's a hard thing. And. that's one of the reasons why when. troops die in war for months, this can. harden support for a war, possibly even. grow it. Over time, yes, it tends to. whittle down, but in the in the near. term, deaths can actually harden support. for the war. And that's a thing that. most people aren't really fully grasping. yet. >> How real is the risk that the US will do. some kind of limited ground operation.

with boots on the ground in Iran? uh well over 50%. I think it's uh. bordering on 70% now. Um and the reasons. are that uh number one, the economic. crisis that President Trump was trying. to prevent and therefore the economic. costs that will hurt him later is. already starting to become baked in. what you're hearing this morning with. the Houthis closing the pipeline area. around Yanbu, it's called this port city.

in the Red Sea where the uh 4 to 5. million barrels of Saudi oil is coming. out. What you're hear what that is going. to do is make the economic crisis even. more baked in, even more likely unless. it's immediately reversed. And even if. it was immediately reversed tomorrow, that could be reversed again the next. day after that. this is starting to. spiral out of control because it's not. just up to President Trump now to to put. this genie back in the bottle. President. Trump can actually still uh can withdraw. and uh but right now Iran has to stop.

the escalation. It has to let the Red. Sea oil flow. It has to allow ships to. flow from Hormuz. And Iran is not is in. a mood for revenge. Iran is there is. emotions coursing through Iran, but it's. not um causing Iran to uh uh pull back. Uh it's causing Iran to want revenge. And the leader statement, the Supreme. Leader statement just of a couple days. ago, this was Saturday, uh two uh US.

soldiers were tragically killed in. Jordan. Um he called it uh what the. Supreme Leader did was uh used the. phrase that he's going to deliver. unforgettable lessons to America. Unforgettable lessons is the exact. phrase by the Supreme Leader over the. weekend. What you are seeing here, Stephen, is as we have essentially as. Iran um started to shoot now shoot at. ships here to try to reinforce theou,

President Trump up the ante. Now we're. in our ninth week, ninth day of bombing. in a row. Now Iran is upping the Annie. And Iran is upping the Annie in multiple. ways. It's attacking our base in Jordan, which it only rarely done since uh since. March, actually. It's now with the. Houthis closing the Red Sea. And we. haven't yet talked about Kuwait. And we. should talk about what happened here. over the weekend here in Kuwait because. this is a harbinger of what's to come.

because it shows how ferocious the anger. is by Iran and how hard it's going to be. to stop this spiral of escalation. And. that is what is one of the the that's. what's going to lead to President Trump. thinking long and hard about putting. those ground forces in because we're not. making an independent decision now. >> So you said there's a 70% chance Yes. >> that troops could be put on the ground. in Iran.

>> Yes. I think within I think probably uh. within the next month, maybe even. shorter than that. It could even be by. the end of this week. This is something that I've made for. you. I've realized that the direio. audience are strivals. that we want to accomplish. And one of. the things I've learned is that when you. aim at the big big big goal, it can feel. incredibly psychologically uncomfortable. because it's kind of like being stood at. the foot of Mount Everest and looking.

upwards. The way to accomplish your. goals is by breaking them down into tiny. small steps. And we call this in our. team the 1%. And actually this. philosophy is highly responsible for. much of our success here. So what we've. done so that you at home can accomplish. any big goal that you have is we've made. these 1% diaries and we released these. last year and they all sold out. So I. asked my team over and over again to. bring the diaries back but also to. introduce some new colors and to make. some minor tweaks to the diary. So now. we have a better range for you. So, if.

you have a big goal in mind and you need. a framework and a process and some. motivation, then I highly recommend you. get one of these diaries before they. will sell out once again. And you can. get yours at the diary.com. And if you want the link, the link is in. the description below. You've shown me on the graph that you've. just shown the escalation ladder, you. can call it, and and where we are now. What is the most probable next thing. that you think happens with this war?

The biggest thing I'm worried about is a. mass casualty attack against American. troops or American civilians. >> Wow. >> Against American troops in the Middle. East, but I'm specifically worrying. about a barrage of ballistic missiles. against our uh naval ships in the Gulf. of Oman. So the Iran is showing a uh. through its the targeting it's that it's. already been doing in the last uh week.

and a half an exquisite ability to. precisely target and um we don't know. for sure they're able to track the. movement of our naval ships in the Gulf. of Oman uh or they're getting help with. either the ch from the Chinese or the. Russians in doing that. But I'm. specifically worried that as this. escalates, they've just closed the. straight. They've just closed the Red. Sea. If we keep going forward, and we'll. find out if we're going to if Trump will. pull back or not, but if we keep going.

forward, one of the big things I'm. concerned about this week, next week, would be an attack on a ship. Uh, and I. think it would be a barrage attack. The. second thing I'm concerned about is uh. because we are now um literally. threatening ground occupation. That's. the biggest risk factor for suicide. terrorism in my 25 years of studying. suicide attacks. We haven't talked about. that, Stephen. And the reason we haven't. talked about it is because we were. pretty far away from the big risk factor. of how you start a big suicide terrorist.

campaign. That is now changing. Um I've. talked to my substack about this. glad. to talk to you about it now. Uh, but I'm. concerned about a mass casualty attack. against Americans. This could be against. an American airliner. It could be. against I mean Americans on a a. commercial airliner. This could be um. against uh uh Americans, say business uh. men in uh Aquaba. So you you might know.

there have been attacks recently in. Aquaba, which is this really lovely. resort town. I've never been there. And. the uh and the fact is um there are. business American businessmen um uh. moving all around the Middle East now to. build these pipelines. And so I can. imagine there being terrorist attacks. against the uh the hotels that are. staying at uh the um German and um. British embassies have just ordered. their evacuation. America State. Department has issued an advisory over.

the weekend for Americans to start. leaving the region. But I'm concerned. about terrorist attack because. threatening in or actually doing ground. control, controlling pieces of homeland. territory is the biggest risk factor for. suicide terrorism. That's what causes. people more than anything else to strap. on bombs to kill others while they're. killing themselves. So before we explain. in detail, so when you say Stephen, what. I'm looking for in the next few weeks, >> I'm seeing the spiral of escalation now.

occurring. It's a two-sided spiral. It's. not just President Trump. Iran is uh uh. escalating here as much as Trump, if not. more. And uh in this spiral of. escalation, there could be a mass. casualty attack either against our. troops or against American civilians. And the American civilian attack could. be anywhere in the world. It could be in. Indonesia. It could be London. It could. be anywhere. And if that mass casualty. event happens, I think what you're going.

to see is that this is likely going to. cause that division we just discussed. here to in America, support for the war. to harden even more. And you're going to. get though intense support for. continuing the war now to stop uh mass. casualty attacks by Iran in the future. So you have spent some of your career. studying terrorist attacks. >> and I guess suicide terrorist attacks.

>> specifically. Yes. >> Give me a view into the research the. work you've done there. You've written a. book on it. >> Two. >> two books on it. >> And then ladder me up to how that's. relevant to the moment we're in now. So, shortly after 9/11, this was, remember, America was hit with a a terrorist. attack here in uh New York, the World. Trade Center, the Pentagon. Uh nearly. 3,000 Americans died that day. I wanted. to understand why, and I wanted to. understand more. The more I studied it, I noticed that 9/11 was a suicide.

attack. It wasn't just a terrorist. attack. So, I started to collect what. became the first complete data set of. all suicide attacks around the world. Uh. I did this uh at the University of. Chicago. I did this with a few research. assistants, basically work study. students. The suicide terrorism, the. reason I studied it, Stephen, was. because it's the lung cancer of. terrorism. Suicide attacks kill more. people in the category of terrorism than.

all the other different kinds of. terrorism combined. The suicide attacks. are the biggest killer. Uh it's like. lung cancer. We have other kinds of. cancers, but lung cancer is the biggest. killer. And what is the key risk factor. for the lung cancer of suicide. terrorism? It's military combat presence. on territory the terrorist prize. >> So with suicide terrorism, is it hard to. stop? Because you know, we can intercept. missiles that are coming over pretty. well, it seems, but suicide terrorism.

seems to be a completely different type. of challenge. Suicide terrorism is like. a precision guided is like turning a. person into a precisiong guided weapon. because literally. nothing can better identify the most. vulnerable point in a crowd, the most. vulnerable point in a building, the. exact split second to set off the the. the explosive better than a human. >> And the how does the US, for example,

you're saying two things. You're saying. that that attack could happen in the. United States, but also it doesn't have. to. It could happen anywhere in those. regions where there's a high density of. Americans or Westerners. Theoretically, >> that's right. >> Because, you know, the Americans could. say, "Well, we're not going to let in. anybody from those regions. We're going. to get more diligent with passport. checks, whatever.". >> That will happen after the fir, God. forbid, I hope I'm wrong, Stephen, but. if and when that first attack happens, you're going to see all that come out.

You're going to see what can come out. >> You're going to see all the idea of what. can we do? Can we do passport checks? Can we do X or Y? What this is right. after 911, similar thing happened. Let's. hope nothing that large would would. happen. But let me just further explain. that when I when I um compiled that. database and it made a specific. prediction. It predicted then that if we. invaded and occupied Iraq, we would. touch off the largest suicide terrorist. campaign in modern times. What is it? What is it about okay.

invading. their country in particular versus. bombing their country in particular that. causes suicide terrorist attacks from. your research? Like what is it? Because. bombing them from the sky is is killing. people that it's not the killing people. part of this that matters. It's the. political control part that comes with. the ground forces. So the reason to use. the ground forces is to impose political. control.

>> So. >> that's not just killing people, Stephen. >> So the reason why America put in ground. forces. >> is to get political control and that. political control means the group. controlled doesn't control its way of. life. >> It's sort of seen as a deeper violation. Is that ultimately what it is? It's a. deeper violation that is uh not in. control of the local population. So when. we put in ground forces in Afghanistan.

after we topple the Taliban, we topple. the Taliban with their power by the way, but we don't get much suicide attacks in. Afghanistan till we start pouring in. ground forces in Afghanistan. That comes. after we topple the Taliban. So we. topple the Taliban in fall 2021 and then. we get the suicide terrorism starting. several years later in Afghanistan. It's. because that's when we're putting in the. ground forces. >> So Donald Trump has just posted on Truth. Social a few hours ago saying every time.

Iran kills an American soldier, they. will pay for that killing many times. over. This directive has been passed. onto the Secretary of War, Pete Hexath, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staffs. and his other military leader. And. obviously this is in response to losing. an American life. and he's very actively. tweeting as we speak about the war um. tweet after tweet after tweet after. tweet on true social. It it it begs the. I mean I just don't know what is there a. end an achievable endgame or off-ramp.

here that restores the free shipping. through the straight of Hermuz but also. allows the United States to retract. without appearing to have suffered a a. strategic defeat. >> No, Stephen, there is not an achievable. offramp. um that ship sailed first when. um President Trump decided in the first. week in March not to declare he could. have declared my advice at that point. first week in March was to declare. victory and walk away to say all you. wanted to do was teach Iran a lesson.

you'd killed the supreme leader a bunch. of other leaders now let's go back uh to. negotiate uh with um about Iran's. nuclear prayer he did not do that when I. was with you in April I was giving a. different advice. Um that advice then. was to militarily contain Israel. That. advice was to keep a lid. Israel was. moving into Lebanon doing other things. Keep a lid on Israel militarily. Um. President Trump has taken these ideas.

and I'm not saying because I said them, but he's taken those ideas months too. late. If you look at what I'm I think. President Trump might think he is trying. to militarily contain Israel right now. uh with theou I do think he tried to. declare victory and and and walk out. But the problem here Stephen is that. these are now u a day late and a dollar. short. They're just not good enough. So. if you wanted to get back to the. negotiating track, what exactly are you. going to uh offer Iran to come back to.

the table at this point? The sameou say, "Oh, sure. We're going to now just we're. going to we're going to honor theou that. we already signed and then we violated. over and over and over." You're not. that's not credible. >> So is this the forever war? >> No, we're not yet in the forever war. stage. >> But you said there's no way out. There's the way out would be if the. midterms come and the Democrats win. either the House or the House and the.

Senate and they shut down the money for. the war. >> Oh, >> that is a way out. >> Oh, they can do that. >> So, this is Yes. That's what happened in. Vietnam. >> They they they can shut down the money. for the war. >> They can shut down the That's what. Congress did. Yes. Congress has the. power. It doesn't use it very often. And. the last time I did this was in 1974. The reason I, as I showed you on that. escalation ladder, I said there is a. stage five, a forever war. We're not at. a forever war yet. What would be a.

forever war would be um uh where that. will come. And and the reason I'm. defining the the escalation period. between now and the midterms is the most. crucial period right now. This is going. to determine everything. And the and. what's going to determine the outcome of. the next few months is can America open. the straight of form physically. What. could easily happen between now and the. midterms is President Trump tries to.

open the straight of form moves or he. allows Iran by the way to um he pulls. back. He could actually pull back. Either way, at this point, Stephen, there's um uh there's a good chance he. will uh lose in the midterms, meaning. that the Republicans will lose one or. both houses in Congress. And if that. happens, then uh whoever takes over. control will be a Democrat. They'll be. hotly um anti-war. And there will be uh. great efforts here to shut down the war,

meaning shut down the money for the war. So, it's always about the money. >> I need to get an understanding of the. role. So this sort of link between the. midterms, the money, and then the war. So the midterms are going to change. who's in Congress. >> Yes. >> And then the people in. >> who controls it. >> And the people in Congress, they decide. how much money the military gets. >> They decide whether or not um they can. pass laws, and this is what happened in. 1974, uh to prevent money from being spent on.

the war. >> And Trump can't overdo that. He. >> he can try to work around it. Uh there. can be then Supreme Court cases and so. forth and so on. >> So even if Democrats win the midterms. and try to halt the war, Trump could. bypass them because he holds massive. constitutional advantages as. commander-in-chief. He can simply veto. any war powers resolution or funding. restriction passed by Congress, which. would then require an incredibly. difficult 2/3 supermajority in both. chambers to override. Furthermore,

mirroring the arguments of almost every. president since Richard Nixon, Trump. could evoke his Article 2 constitutional. authority, claiming he has the inherent. power to defend America's interests and. troops without needing legislative. approval. Finally, even if Congress. refuses to authorize new funding, the. president can use emergency transfer. authorities and creative accounting to. shuffle existing Pentagon budget funds. to keep the military operations running. in the short term. You've just defined a. constitutional crisis. Congress will.

think it has the power. President Trump. will think he has the power. That is. what is a constitutional crisis. And. that's why these midterms, as my. don't mean to to say it quite in this. context, but as you know, I have a book. coming out, Our own worst enemies, the. preface is called uh the most dangerous. elections in our lifetimes. That is why. this election coming up will be the most. dangerous election in our lifetime. because the tensions now are growing. On.

top of all that, they're not calming. down those waters. The Iran war is. making all these worse. And what you. just read is the tension here that is. that could well come because the. Democrats are not going to want it to. there to be a forever war. and they were. going to they'll likely fight really. hard once uh once they control the um uh. once they control one or both houses of. Congress. President Trump will want to.

fight really hard for his legacy and his. um uh domestic agenda, including uh. deportations, including ICE. So, this. will all come together. These will not. be compartmentalized separate issues as. we get into the midterms. That's why I'm. saying that we're coming the midterms. The midterms. The midterms. We're not. heading to a future where it's just. about what happens to military bases. overseas. It's just about what happens.

to ships overseas, what's happened in. Hormuz. These lines, the domestic. political violence in the United States, I call this the era of violent populism. and the growing tensions in the country. over the Iran war. These two lines, the. domestic uh crisis and the international. crisis are about to come together. And. as I told my research team in the summer. of 2024 and talks I gave in Chicago, my.

nightmare, they asked me what my. nightmare scenario was. This was in the. fall of 2024. And I said, "My nightmare. scenario is we have uh an international. crisis at the same time as we have an. election in the fall of 2024. We really. didn't have that. Now we do." And this. is we're heading into the fall of 2026. And this was always my nightmare. scenario. >> Why? What does that mean? What are those. two things colliding? >> Those two things colliding start to look.

like the 1960s. >> And what happened in the 1960s? the. 1960s, we had mass uh demonstrations. We. had anti-war violence, we had anti-war. terrorism with the weather underground, we had multiple assassinations uh that. occurred. Martin Luther King, it was uh. Bobby Kennedy was assassinated, a. convention in Chicago, there was just. mass uh demonstration. Mayor Daly in. Chicago gave a shoot to kill order. I. already mentioned to you the weather.

underground um uh string of bombs that. they set off. So what we faced in the. 1960s was the collision of domestic uh. political tension with an unpopular war. That's how you got the chaos of the. 1960s. I have a whole chapter in the. book about the 1960s and why it was so. particularly intense. >> So do you think that Trump is likely to. lose the midterms as things stand? Do. you think the Republicans are likely to. lose. >> here? Here's here's the thing. If um if.

we have a mass casualty attack, this. will increase the odds of Trump uh and. the Republicans winning in the midterms. And I think if uh we uh have a world. economic crisis without the mass. casualty attack, uh then I think it's. likely that the Republicans will lose in. the midterms. >> Okay. So I think we have the reason I. can't give you a clean uh answer to this. which I know people want they they would. because we have multiple specific issues.

here that are now as part of the. spiraling violence. >> and three 3 months isn't awful long. >> It's a long time because that mass. casualty attack could happen in in. October and it doesn't have to be. command directed by Iran. It can be it. can occur the mass casualty attack. against Americans uh can occur because. it's an inspired attack. The Iran the. the supreme leader is issuing statements.

that sound almost like Baghdadi that was. the leader of ISIS issuing statements to. encourage inspired attacks. That was the. suicide uh attacks in Paris in November. 2015 that killed over a hundred people. That was San Bernardino. So we we we saw. leaders inspire attacks before and the. Supreme Leader statements are just are. eerily close to the same words.

Is the current US air campaign. sustainable? You hinted at this earlier. on that actually the US might be running. out of some of their their weapons. Um, it's estimated that the daily cost of. this this war for America is around $2. billion a day and Iran's ability to. continue these sort of asymmetric. attacks with drones and other things. >> doesn't come as at such a high cost and. seems from the example you gave with the. bowl earlier on to be more sustainable. So, is there actually a risk here that. the US will run out of weapons? Um, I.

think that there's a risk we'll run out. of interceptors to shoot down missiles, but even that's pretty low because. what's really happening in our arsenal. of weapons, Stephen, is we are using a. lot of interceptor, especially say. Patriot missile interceptors to shoot. down incoming ballistic missiles, but. we're drawing from stocks um in Asia and. in Europe. This is one of the reasons. Zalinsky can't get Patriot missiles, uh,

at least not very many of them. It's. because we're now moving most of the. stocks here for the Persian Gulf. So, I. think that there's some chance we'll run. out of the, uh, those interceptors, but. even there, I think it's low. But. literally, in terms of the bombs, it's. it's an gross exaggeration to expect. that uh, we are going to run out of. bombs to drop from aircraft. And there's. two reasons for that. In order to make a. precision bomb, most people don't know.

what it takes these days. And it's true, we can spend a lot of money making a. precision bomb, but we can literally. take dumb bombs, 500 lb dumb bombs, and. strap a backpack on them that will uh. connect with GPS and have little uh. cords to the fins of the bombs in order. to turn a dumb bomb into a precision. bomb. Those fanny packs are about 20,000. bucks, maybe 25. So, we can make them. much more easily than people think.

>> So, what do you think the United. States/Trump's. objective is at this particular point? Like, what is the goal? The the real. goal? Cuz there's lots of press. conferences I see where they say it's. nuclear weapons, it's this, that, and. the other. I. >> I think President Trump's goal between. now and the midterms is very simple. A. symbolic victory. >> And what would that look like? That. would look like a victory that would. hold for uh a week, maybe two weeks, and. that would be uh an opportunity to show.

that President Trump fought back. I. think that's how this would be framed by. uh uh President Trump's supporters and. those who support the war. And it would. be uh I think President Trump would say, "And this shows what we can do if you. let us win.". I think his words would be a little. different. >> Do you think he's stuck? Yes. >> Do you think he knows he's stuck? >> I've never met President Trump. Um, my. research here, Stephen, has always.

looked at the actual words by decision. makers. What I can tell you is what his. incentives look like. And the incentives. that I've laid out have been quite. predictive of his behavior. >> Do you want him to call you? >> Yes. >> And if he calls you, what is the advice. you would give him on what to do next? Uh what I would do is try to design a. several year strategy to build a better. balance of power in the region that we. could over a period of time uh stabilize.

the world and stabilize the region. And. I think that is the big issue that's. being missed right now. >> But if he says, "Listen, Robert, what do. I do in the next three months because. I've got these midterms coming up?". >> Then the answer is don't call me. I I want to help President Trump, but I. want to help America for real. Uh these. are not necessarily at odds, but the. bottom line here is that um everything I.

have to say to President Trump about the. next 3 months, we've just done on this. podcast, Stephen. Um, but I am. absolutely delighted to talk about how. to actually build a more secure future. for America and for the Gulf. And I just. don't think that's that's happening. And. I don't think the uh the pressure that. this must lead to an electoral victory. for President Trump is likely to uh uh.

make the the the true security for. America and the Gulf more likely. In. fact, it's going to go the other way. around. It will encourage the escalation. trap. So, that's why I'm I am I'm stuck. by my own logic of the escalation trap. uh here. It's literally um we we have to. move past the idea that uh the only. acceptable option is an option that. guarantees.

um political success for an individual. even if it means the president of the. United States. >> What do you think Russia and China. who are often positioned as adversaries. of the United States? What do you think. they're thinking right now? And what do. they what do they want to happen? You. know, I guess China's being hurt by the. oil situation. Russia's got their own. situation going on with the Ukraine. What are they thinking? >> Uh I think China does not want there to. be global instability. Uh but at the.

same time, they don't want this to be uh. a situation where Iran comes out. smashed. I think that is um uh that's. that's simply not in the cart. I also. don't think China is going to insert. itself in a very forceful way. I think. the idea that Iran might come out and. militarily support the United States. here or militarily support with its own. forces Iran is not likely to happen. So. I think that what you were.

>> Why don't they want Iran smashed to. China? >> For President Xi um he explained quite a. bit of this at the summit. He said to. President Trump, "You're a declining. power. Are you going to uh fall into. what he called the Thusidity trap? Meaning, are you going to launch a. preventive war against China in Asia? And that's what President Xi said. >> What about Russia? >> What Russia is seeing is an opportunity. to squeeze Europe economically.

Uh so I believe that what has been. happening in the last few weeks here, the last month is that Ukraine has. actually been gaining. uh uh not just strength with drones but. in a specific area called Crimea in uh. which uh Russia took and Putin took in. 2014. There's been a mass exodus out of. Crimea in the last weeks. Ukraine is putting more and more.

pressure on the supply lines coming into. Crimea and also coming into Ukraine from. Russia. And what Putin, I think, is uh. is is uh wants to have happen is that um. he will likely escalate more, put more. pressure on Europe at exactly the time. in the fall when the world economic. crisis is growing because of Iran. And. that is going to squeeze Europe, make it.

hard for Europe to fulfill the. commitment they just made to uh Zalinsky. of 80 billion more dollars. I guess my. my last question then before I go to the. diary is um if you were to predict how. the next couple of months play out, what. would your prediction be? And this is a. on a on probability 51% probability of. outcomes. What happens next? I I think. we're going to uh in the next few months.

cross the threshold with ground. operations into either one of the. islands or part of the coast of Iran. because the world economic crisis is. going to grow. The price of gasoline in. the United States is likely to grow and. President Trump is going to be even more. desperate to try to find a way to look. make it at least appear as if he has a. plan to open hormones. It may not be. real. It may only be symbolic. But I.

think Stephen that the uh where we are. heading is um uh the more the crisis the. world economic crisis increases and if. there's a mass casualty attack the more. that crisis increases the more President. Trump is under pressure to demonstrate. he has a way to open hormuz even if it's. far off and he needs a down payment on. that. He needs something to show.

tangibly and I think that's where the. pressure will come from for crossing. into stage three. >> I think it's worth saying in these. conversations as well that there are 90. plus million Iranians who currently live. in Iran and who are caught in the midst. of this craziness and chaos. And. sometimes in these conversations we kind. of don't really think about the fact. that there's a nation that's just bigger. than the nation I come from, the United. Kingdom, who are right in the heart of. this. And so every time Trump says he's. bombed more people over the weekends or. he's firing bombs, I always think about. the the real families that are caught.

right in in the midst of all of this. that didn't choose this war that are. living in an environment where bombs are. dropping on their heads. And I think for. everybody all around the world that. listen to this show, whether you're in. the UK or the United States or Australia. or Canada or wherever you are, South. America, Asia, wherever, Africa, it's. worth taking a second just to imagine. what it would be like to know that the. United States are dropping lots of bombs. on the nation in which you live and how. that would feel psychologically, how. that would feel for your children, how. that would feel for for you yourself,

how that would impact your day-to-day. life. And also I guess the uncertainty. of not knowing when it's going to end, if it's going to end, and also hearing. this term escalation trap and thinking. that you know this is actually going to. escalate and troops are going to come. into my country. And so there's a real. human cost to this which sometimes we. leave out of these conversations. >> And I have students um uh and at the. University of Chicago who um are. Iranian, they have families in Iran uh. and they ask me questions about this all. the time. And sadly, what I have to tell.

them is that real hope for the Iranian. people is 5 or 10 years away. And as. this war escalates, it pushes closer to. 10 than five. We have a closing tradition on this. podcast where the last guest leaves a. question for the next. The question left. for you is if you could go back to a. certain time and see something occur or. ask someone something you've always. wondered about, what slash who would. that person slash place be and why?

>> I think the key person I would ask would. be uh Franklin Delanor Roosevelt. He. died before we dropped the atomic bombs. I would want to know from him when he. was developing uh and supporting the. atomic bombs. Did he imagine the world. that would be created by the atomic. bombs? Because in my lifetime, war has.

been a defining feature of my work. Uh. but uh the uh the prospects of of. nuclear war have always overhung quite a. bit of our work. We never want to get to. anything like that. But I'd like to know. from the person who had the most. authority power uh in order to make that. future happen who never even saw it, didn't even see it happen, but knew it.

was coming. I'd like to know from him. what did he think was truly going to. come because I think that this would be. uh uh extremely useful to know whether. or not our leaders truly truly how far. out they can really see and understand. how much their decisions today shape the. world for decades to come. >> Robert, thank you. Um we're very excited. for your book September 22nd. So, do we. have a pre-order link yet? It's just up.

Actually, literally, it's just up. So, yes, >> I have to say when we first sat down, you said a bunch of things in terms of. what would happen next. And I'm not sure. I believed them all. >> because I don't know anything about war. and they and you never really think. about the psychology changes both at. home, but also where the bombs are. dropping. And it does appear that you've. been largely correct about what you what. you said would happen. this escalation. that happens across all wars that has. happened also in Ukraine and Russia at. the same time but now we're seeing play.

out in Iran. So I have to give you your. credit because you have been. unfortunately you've been right I should. say I would agree with the word. unfortunately. So, this is uh um part of. me would like to be happy about this, but the truth is uh and this is what I. just was talking to my 97year-old. mother-in-law about is um uh I told her. that you had invited me again. She's 97. years old, can't even get out of bed, Stephen. And I told her that um it was. it was one of the the saddest things I.

had to agree to. And it's because of. what it really means. The reason you're. having me here is because things are bad. for our country and I want nothing more. than for things to be better for our. country. >> Well, Robert, thank you so much for. coming back and um you know, if we do. come back again and convene, I hope next. time it's on better times because we're. analyzing how it all resulted in peace. for everybody, especially the people. that are living and around right now. >> Robert, thank you. >> Thank you. >> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm. where they know exactly what video you. would like to watch next based on AI and.

all of your viewing behavior. And the. algorithm says that this video is the. perfect video for you. It's different. for everybody looking right now. Check. this video out and I bet you you might. love it.