Iran War Expert: Bombing Iran Would Leave Nobody To Negotiate With! | Prof Robert Pape

We are about to enter the eight most. dangerous weeks in our lives cuz the US. midterms [music] will determine the fate. of President Trump's administration. And. the most dangerous time is the. transition of power. And we saw this. with January 6. And so what happens in. this transition period could also easily. dovetail in the Iran war because. President Trump has promised over and. over again that he will escalate after. the elections. Well, now we're after the.

elections. So, let me show you what's. really going to happen. But first, I've. studied political violence around the. world for 30 years and I've advised. every White House since 9/11. What What. do you think's going to happen then over. these eight weeks? >> So, let's start with the beginning. Will. President Trump accept [music] the. election results, but also a plan that's. on his desk is a plan to hit targets. [music] in Iran over a 3-day period. And. as the Iran war is escalating, now we. have the issue of this is a likely.

possible time when Putin is going to. start to realize he [music] can't get. Ukrainian territory from Trump. So, he. moves to his next plan. And I'll show. you what that might look like. What. happens next? There's going to be. enormous pressure on Europe to. retaliate. And when Europe does that, that's what World War II looks like. President Trump will be able to start. declaring [music] more and more. emergency powers. And this will lead. into a devastating 2027. What can we do?

And what [music] about the general. public? Do you think we should be. stockpiling? Number one, incredibly. important, which is. before this episode starts, I have a. small favor to ask you. Two months ago, 61% of the people that watched this. channel weren't subscribed. We're now. down to 58%. My goal is 50%. So, if. you've ever liked any of the videos. we've made on this channel, if you like. this channel, can you do me a small. quick favor and hit the subscribe. button? It helps this channel more than. you know, and the bigger the channel. gets, the more we can invest in the. guests and the production. Thank you and. enjoy this episode. [music].

>> [singing]. >> Robert Payne, every time I speak to you, I feel like I start with the same. question, but it is the question that is. front of mind for me, which is what the. hell is going on in the world at the. moment? What's going on is we are. getting deeper and deeper into an. escalation trap and we are moving up. rungs in escalation where risk is. growing and we are about to enter the. eight most dangerous weeks since this.

war began and they may become the eight. most dangerous weeks in our lives. We. are going to see the coming together of. three fundamentally dangerous issues. We're about to see the US midterms where. the voting has now stopped. But we are. now in the process of counting the vote, certifying the vote and in two months.

and it will take two months seeding the. victors. That's the transfer of power. Where the real danger zone of political. violence, what I call violent populism. is starting now. It began the moment the. voting stopped and the counting began. because that's the transfer of power. >> Okay, so most of my audiences around the. world probably won't know, including. myself, what a midterm is.

>> in the presidential system. In the. United States, we have four-year terms. for our US presidents. Then for our. Congress, we hold an election every two. years. >> And we have two houses in our Congress. Sometimes it uh dovetales with the. election of the president, in which case. we just call it the general election. But when the president is not up for. reelection, we call it a midterm,

meaning midterm of the president's term. >> So, let me explain this to you, and you. tell me if I've got this. There is this. House of Representatives, and then. there's the Senate. >> That's right. >> And both of them work to vote laws into. power. >> That's right. >> And as we stand here right now, the. Republicans, Trump's party, has a. majority in both. So, it's quite easy. for them to pass new laws. What you're. saying is in these midterms that are. coming up, there's a prospect that Trump. might lose his power in the Senate and.

in the House, which would mean he. wouldn't be able to get his laws passed. very easily. It's not just about passing. laws, Stephen. It's about a system of. check and balance. The way the. constitution was set up is that the. congress and the president and then also. the supreme court which does which is. not an elected body they check each. other. So what's supposed to moderate. the policies in the United States where.

we don't go to the extremes is when. different parties control the congress. and the president. When you have the. same party controlling both houses of. Congress and the president, by. definition, there's very little check. and balance on the president. The. president can pretty much do what the. president wants, especially in. international affairs, but also very. heavily in domestic. That's why the. president's power is going to be.

severely checked if Republicans no. longer control the House and the Senate. So why is this the eight most dangerous. weeks in your history? >> It's the eight most dangerous weeks. because political violence uh especially. in the era of violent populism when tens. of millions of Americans support. political violence on both sides of the. aisle. The most dangerous time is the. transition of power. And we saw this 6.

years ago with January 6. It's important. to remember that in November 2020, President Biden was elected. However, that did not prevent President Trump. from taking steps to prevent that. transfer of power. We saw it come to a. head on January 6th, and that occurred. over a two-month process. It was when. the voting stopped and the counting. began and then the certification of the.

votes began and then the transfer of. power. That was the most dangerous. moment that we have seen in American. domestic politics since the civil war. We are heading to a very similar. situation again and it's worse now. >> How do you know? For 30 years, I've. studied political violence around the. world. But for the last 5 years, Stephen, I have devoted myself to.

understanding what's happened in the. United States. We are seeing a. transition of power in the context of. literally. this fact. >> What does that fact say? That fact is. that today, as of a month ago, over 40 million Americans support the. use of the US military to suppress.

Democratic protesters against the Trump. agenda. Think of this as 40 million. Americans who support political violence. for Trump and 60 million Americans, over. 60 million, support the use of force to. prevent Trump from being president. I've. been doing these national representative. surveys for 5 years. These numbers are. double what they were in September 2024,

two years ago. And two years ago, you'll. recall, we had multiple assassination. attempts against President Trump. You. remember a year ago, we had the. assassination of Charlie Kirk. So these. numbers are worse than that. And we are. coming into the most volatile election. in our lifetimes really because this. really will determine the fate of.

President Trump's administration for the. final two years. If it turns out that at. the end of these two months that the. Democrats control one or especially if. they control both the House and the. Senate, this is going to mean the. virtual political destruction of the. Trump presidency. the Democrats in. control of both houses of Congress. They.

will not only have the power of. subpoenas to be able to compel on. penalty of going to jail and prison uh. testimony from members of the Trump. administration. They will have the power. of impeachment. And it's not just. impeaching President Trump. It's. impeaching the members of his cabinet. Think Secretary Hegsth. think the attorney general, think uh the. Department of Homeland Security.

Secretary. And if in fact they also. control the Senate, now with just a few. more Republican votes, and there are. many disgruntled Republicans already and. many Republicans that have moved away. from President Trump in recent months, they have the possibility of literally. removing them from office. That would. create a spiral down. There's no. political bottom there, Stephen. This is.

not like, oh, it's just once you get rid. of one cabinet secretary, everybody. calms down. What we are witnessing is a. true watershed period for the uh. political power of President Trump. And. that means also the power of the MAGA. agenda whether or not there will be mass. deportations in the country. How would. that be impacted by the midterms. >> if starting in January there are months.

and months of turmoil in the Trump. administration where literally the heads. of the cabinet offices including the. Department of Homeland Security are on. the block to be removed. the idea that. you're going to have consistent um. operations within the departments very. very very difficult. Stephen, >> what do you think is going to happen. then over these eight weeks? >> It starts with the midterms. It starts. with the issue of violent populism. It.

starts with the issue of the. consequences of President Trump's. presidency. But it doesn't stop there. because you see this is not happening in. isolation. It's happening during the. Iran war. And so what happens in this. midterm transition period could also. easily dovetail with more escalation in. the Iran war. And in fact, President.

Trump has promised over and over and. over again that he will escalate after. the uh elections. Well, now we're p now. we're after the elections. And at the. same time, as if that was not dangerous. enough, we have a third issue, which is. that President Putin and Russia is. threatening to escalate strongly. against civilian infrastructure in. Ukraine to target electric power in Kev,

in Carke, and in Odessa in a dramatic. way. I thought they were doing a deal. >> President Putin has done nothing to say. that this is off the table and there's. uh every sign and in fact growing signs. by European governments that they are. extremely worried about what's coming in. the Ukraine war that there will be as. the phrasing is now called a dark winter.

in Ukraine. >> So these are eight weeks. >> Yes. talk me through them week by week. Let's start with the beginning which is. the election results. And now the. question is, will President Trump accept. the election results? Or if they. ultimately go against the Democrats, will the Democrats. who are built up this giant set of.

hopes, expectations. of victory, would they accept not taking. control of Congress? This is really step. one. And this is coming right on the. heels of another step. President Trump. has promised that the United States and. Israel will conduct strikes against. Iran, heavy strikes right after the.

midterms. >> When did he say that? I was looking for. his quotes on this and he he seems to be. pretty cryptic in saying that. >> um Trump described it as decision time, stating he faces a choice between. reaching a deal or taking action to. finish them off. >> Yes. >> And asked directly by reporters whether. strikes would resume, he remarked that. anything is possible and declined to. take options off the table. as he is um. putting on the table the distinct. possibility of him deciding to do these. strikes, he's taking serious steps with.

his administration to literally prepare. for the strikes. Step number one, that's. that's a costly step is to remove. embassy personnel, the families of the. embassy from the region. This has. happened in Saudi Arabia. This has. happened in multiple of the frontline. Gulf states. The second big thing that's. happened is he has asked the military. for a detailed set of attack plans.

These detailed plans, we have the leaks. of them. Um he has not just had the. plans drawn up but he's given the orders. for sentcom that within maximum 96 hours. of his go code they are to execute the. plan. >> So you I've got your book here bombing. to win air power and coercion in war and. you actually spent a long time modeling. what would happen if the US decided to. bomb Iran before they did. >> That's right. 20 years. >> and what you said to me in these.

previous conversations we've had has. played out in a really, you know, very. interesting but very accurate way. Um, actually when we first met and you first. told me about this idea of an escalation. trap and that the US might be stuck. I. didn't really understand that idea like. the US military is so big. Of course, they would just go in there and they. would win. Um, but you were right. And. so I ask you now we're now, you know, I. don't know, five, six months into the. war. What is what is going how does this end? >> An escalation trap, Stephen, is when a.

strong country like the United States. and Israel attacks a weaker country and. they have tactical success. The bombs. hit targets, the bombs kill leaders, but. the weaker country gains power. And in. this case that happened almost. immediately as Iran gained heavy control. of the straight of form and with it. heavy control of 20% of the world's oil. >> What happens next?

>> What happens next is humiliation. for this the side that started that. attack. Uh, this might be a good time, Stephen, to let me explain what a lot of. people think is strategy. And a lot of people think that what. strategy is, Stephen, is a chess game. But let's play that out and show you. what the escalation trap looks like in a. chess game. So, this is white and white. plays an opening move.

>> Is that America in this analogy? >> This is America. This is President. Trump. White plays an opening move and. red then makes a move. And what does. white do? Takes a pawn. Now it looks. like white is ahead. Now red makes. another move. And let's just say red. brings out a knight. Of course. threatening the pawn. And now white. makes another move putting the bishop. here thinking threatening the queen. But.

as we know in chess, the queen, the red. queen can now just simply take the. bishop. The opening has opened. There was an. initial gain, but what happened very. quickly is red is now more powerful than. it was before. At this point in a chess. game, Stephen, what happens is white. offers red a draw. Trump and Israel. started this. Iran got ahead and so.

everybody's been saying for months and. months and months, President Trump, just. take a deal. Well, that would make. perfect sense if what we were doing is. we were playing a chess game. International politics, especially when. a strong power is ahead, is not a chess. game. Let me explain what I mean by. that. A better analogy for international. politics is roulette. You see what happens in a game of. roulette, and anybody who's been to the.

casino will will know this. You can go. and you see that, oh my goodness. gracious, the odds of me winning here if. I bet on a number, they're not very. good. But the odds, if I just decide I'm. going to bet on say red, I'm just going. to put a bet down. And what happens is, um, it's not quite 50/50. the house. still has an advantage, but nonetheless, a lot of roulette players think, "Well, I'm going to start out there." Well, what happens, Stephen, when they lose. Now, you're the house. You've just won.

there. Now, what happens is a lot of. gamblers will suddenly dig in deeper. I'm going to double down, or in this. case, I'm even more than doubling down, and I'm going to bet even more on red. because since I lost on red before, surely it'll come up red again. But now. the h the wheel spins and guess what. happens? It comes up black again. Now. the house has taken even more chips. Now. I'm way behind. And you know what I also.

did here? And a lot of gamblers do that. They made a deal with a bookie and they. said, "You know what? Let me borrow some. of them chips here cuz I'm going to get. it back." And what are they going to do? They're going to bet an even bigger pile. of chips. They're going to bet all those. chips on red 36 because see now the odds. are riskier. But if they win, and again, they're betting on red. They're hoping. they're finally their numbers finally. come and do, they're going to make back.

the money they lost and even more money. At each rung, President Trump has uh has. made a bet. He's bet that if he attacks. uh the Supreme Leader, kills the Supreme. Leader, this will weaken Iran. It didn't. work. He lost the chips. So he bet on a. six week air campaign and then he. thought okay well I'm going to increase. I'm going to go not just for two or. three days of bombing I'm going to go. for 6 weeks of bombing he lost on red. again. >> How did he lose that? >> Because Iran did not concede and kept.

control of the straight of form moves. That is what is wrecking and putting the. gas prices up high. So as time has gone. on it's literally the chips that he is. risking here are American gas prices. And so in American lives. >> in American lives and American interest. rates, all of that is the equivalent of. the chips that we are losing. But now. he's bet again on the blockade. And. guess what? It's been six solid months,

Stephen. And he's lost again because. what's happened after 6 months? Iran has. not caved. It's not collapsed. Those gas. prices are going up. This is why he's in. so much pressure in the midterm. But it. gets worse than that. So now Stephen, he's lost again. Take these. Now you're. the house. You've got all those chips. Now he's way behind. And he's got a deadline because in the.

gamblers's deadline, all these chips. that I've just been playing with, I've. borrowed them. I borrowed them from the. bookies. >> Are you saying that he's borrowed the. chips from somewhere? He's borrowing um. uh the chips and in this case the chips. are the political support of his party. MAGA and the control of the party in. order to win back everything because. come January 3rd there's going to be a. new Congress. That's the equivalent of.

the bookies wanting all those chips back. in your hand. So you're saying with with. this last bet that he's making because. he started the war in Iran, >> that's right. >> Sentiment towards the Republicans and. Trump has gone down. >> Hugely down. Lost all those chips in. your hand. >> And now senators and Congress people are. going to potentially lose their jobs on. the Republican side to Democrats. >> That's right. They're going to lose. their jobs. And as they lose their jobs,

um they're not going to want to support. him in the future. They're pulling. They. will pull away from him more and more. and more. >> Why doesn't he just He's got two years. then. Is it not conceivable that he just. decides to relax for 2 years? Okay. I. can't get laws passed and I can't get. things done. But, you know, I could just. I'll chill at the White House. >> Yes. So, there's two big problems with. that idea, Stephen. Um problem number. one is um presidents don't just abandon. their party, their agenda, and their.

legacy. We see this not just with. President Trump and MAGA, but we saw. this with Lynden Johnson in the Vietnam. War. Lyndon Johnson went through a very. similar game of roulette where he kept. doubling down as each rung of the. escalation ladder cost him more and more. support. As the American people were. turning against the war, he kept going. up the ladder, >> chasing his losses. He's chasing his. losses, hoping even though each risk is. riskier, each bet is riskier, he sees it.

as the only way to dig out of this doom. loop that he that he is in. And there. are deadlines. The equivalent of the. bookie wanting their money back in two. weeks is the election. And it's not just. the day of the election, it's the. elections mean transfer of power where. the whole legacy comes unglued. And the. legacy of the losing president is the. worst of all. And so this would mean.

President Trump, when you say, shouldn't. he just go to St. Andrews to play golf? He becomes Jimmy Carter and Lynden. Johnson combined, the worst president. that we've ever had in in anything like. any of our lifetimes. This is a huge. problem for any president to just simply. absorb. >> So that was the first point. The second. point is the crypto. So, President Trump. has made enormous uh money for himself.

and his family on various investments. and a lot of it is in crypto and crypto. is ultimate confidence investment. So that what you have with crypto, the. final gold piece here is this can go up. poof [sighs]. when President Trump's power goes up. So. the problem with crypto and his money in. crypto is that this is heavily dependent.

on President Trump's power. And when. President Trump's power goes poof, a lot. of crypto, not all of it, but a lot of. it will go poof. And that will be true. not just for him personally, he's 80. years old, but for his family, for his. friends, those people that have made uh. enormous fortunes on this. So when when. President Trump looks at this, this. isn't just ego um humiliation. This is. massive.

loss in history and this is also massive. personal financial loss for his family. his family are quite involved in the. gambling laws and prediction markets in. the United States as well. I think his. son is actually on the board of two of. the big prediction market companies and. as they sort of like held back the laws. and regulations so that prediction. markets can exist. So I I understand it. from that perspective as well that they. do have financial interests that could. be at risk. >> And what happens with the gambler here? They keep going until what? They lose it.

all. >> So what happens? >> So they lose it all. >> in Iran. So let's go back to the board. now that we understand the escalation. trap that President Trump is in. What we. can see is there's reality to why he. wants to escalate and double down again. because he is looking for a way to turn. around this pessimistic view of. President Trump as he can't win the war.

This is now critical because if he. doesn't find a way to hold on to the. final set of chips of MAGA support which. depends on him being the winner, he's. going to lose those chips going forward. So this is the big pressure, the. pressure I call the pressure of. humiliation for the loser to keep. doubling down. And this is why this step.

is a serious is a serious risk as we go. forward. He hasn't given the go code yet. to actually strike Iran. and we're going. to play out the rest of this because. once we see where this could all head, it's important to understand that I've. advised every White House since 9/11 and. I've seen that in the White Houses, even. though there are heavy commitments to. policies, until the final go order is.

given, it is possible to reverse course. >> I'm pretty sure he's learned that now. that just dropping more bombs doesn't. work. This is the mistake that many. folks are making in the media because. they have become gone from being uh. white belts to green belts with their. strategy, but they haven't gone to brown. belt and and black belt. So, the leaks. that are coming out about the 3-day plan. are uh consistent. The 3-day plan is uh. President Trump is describing here. The.

plan that's on his desk is a plan to hit. targets in Iran over a 3-day period. And. as soon as the media, I believe, saw the. word three in the 3-day, now this can't. be anything. This must be a truly minor. issue. But what we're talking about in. the target sets that are coming out are. a whole new level of leadership. targeting, a level of economic targeting, hitting.

refineries, economic power and bridges. And this looks to me an an awful lot. like what was instant thunder. the. 3-day, it was supposed to only be a. three-day plan that opened the war. against Iraq in 1991. that was targeting 84 leadership and. infrastructure targets where it was. meant to paralyze Sodom Hussein's.

regime. This is exactly the air campaign. that has been at the heart of many um. air strategists since the 1991 war. This. is when I am debating air strategy. I am. literally debating the uh people who. come up with that plan originally and. are still pushing that plan. It says, "The 3-day plan is a Pentagon military. contingency for a rapid, highintensity.

aerial campaign against Iran if. post-election negotiations break down, presumably the midterm elections. It is. designed to hit missile sites, drone. launch hubs, IRGC command centers, and. energy infrastructure over 72 hours to. force capitulation without triggering a. prolonged ground war." Trump paused. major strikes until after the November. 3rd midterms, but he has explicitly. characterized the post-election window. as a final choice to either strike a. diplomatic deal with him or initiate.

these strikes to finish it off. >> That's right. This is much more than the. word three days would communicate. What. you just read there is exactly the full. set of instant thunder uh target sets. if if he does this three-day plan thing, is does it fail? And if it fails, >> it fails. And then what happens is we go. to stage three, >> which is a three-day bombing campaign.

becomes a much longer bombing campaign. So the 3-day bombing campaign drags on, Stephen. This is exactly what happened. >> with Instant Thunder. It was planned as. three days with an extra three days of. backup strikes, but it went on for 43. days, never did succeed in paralyzing. the military of Iraq. >> And the hope here, the success, as far. as Trump would see it, would be that. they come to the table to make a deal to. reopen the straight of Hmuz and to vouch.

never to have nuclear weapons. >> Uh, no, not only that. That's part of. the deal, Desi. Once you do this, there's nobody to come to the table. You. are destroying. so much of the. leadership. stratum. that the idea of coming to the table. We. President Trump has occasionally said. he's not sure who to negotiate with. Now, once you're in day six or seven of. this, you're really not going to know. who to negotiate with because this is.

the the whole point of this plan, Stephen, is to paralyze the government. so it cannot function. Their goal of the. plan is not to tilt the balance of hawks. and doves inside of the government the. way a lot of people again who just kind. of generally know about bombing but. don't know the full details of the way. the strategies work. This is a plan. Stephen that is meant to completely. paralyze the body of the military.

And then the problem here is because. you've paralyzed it, who are you going. to negotiate with? No, that's not likely. the next set of steps. You see, once you. do this now, if you haven't fully paralyzed the. military, and that's what I'm telling you is very. likely, what's going to happen is the. Iranian military that is left, and.

there's going to be quite a bit of it. left with a lot of power to strike back, they're going to start lashing back, and. they can lash back in a whole variety of. ways, including attacks against airports. in the region. This is the real this is. the time when Sodom Hussein after we did. this this is when he bombed sites in. Riad. So this is when his personnel were. killed in Riad. And in fact we could.

never stop the Scud missiles of Iraq. And so what happened is so we've seen. the breaking of this threshold. This is. why this is credible. It's because we've. seen the beginning of this with Iran's. ally, the Houthis, which is the group in. Yemen. So what happened is as the. escalation between Saudi Arabia and the. group in Yemen called the Houthis was. escalating, the Houthis directly with.

missiles struck terminals three and. terminals four on separate days in the. Riad International Airport. killing over. a dozen people and wounding over 300. people. And this is the first time in. this war we saw the direct targeting of. civilians, intentional targeting of. civilians. And it wasn't just one day, it was multiple days. And what I'm.

pointing out is this is the pattern that. you would expect as this progresses. So. that what you're doing is you're getting. deeper in. And who are you going to. communicate with to tell them to stop? >> What's number six? >> Number six. Now we need to understand. that what's happened, Stephen, is look. how deep we've gone in. We started with. what was supposed to be just another. limited strike. This time, however, it's. building its own momentum. And as it.

builds its own momentum, it is now now. we have that decentralized structure in. Iran striking back in ways it decides on. its own. But there's another problem. That other problem is these attacks, Stephen, are likely going to kill. thousands and thousands of civilians in. Iran. >> Which attacks? The 3-day and the six day. and the continued attacks here on these.

instant thunder style airplane is. exactly the airplane we executed against. Sodom Hussein in 91. But it was against. his regime. It was against the economic. infrastructure. We hit his oil. refineries. We hit his electric power. And we killed somewhere between five and. 15,000 civilians. in doing this plan. This is not a her a. plan where no civilians die. So you're. saying this is a plan lots of people are.

going to die through this period. Lots. of people are going to die here which. and that leads to inspired attacks. >> What an inspired attack is is a. terrorist attack that is not command. directed by a government. It is not. coming from the supreme leader. The. supreme leader may even be dead as a. result of all this. an inspired attack. is what we saw in the Tel Aviv plane. incident. So, we just literally saw the. last time I was on your show, I was.

warning you that there will be we will. likely see uh civilian attacks. It could. well be inspired attacks. It's because. in the aftermath of the tens of the 10. million plus who came out to support the. supreme leader, they called for revenge. That is exactly the pool of sentiments. that is likely to inspire individuals on. their own, I don't mean command directed. by Iran, on their own to carry out. terrorist attacks or suicide terrorist.

attacks. Well, what happened in the Tel. Aviv incident? This was a co-pilot who. the plane took off from the airport in. Dubai and it had about 170 civilians on. the airplane. And about a hundred of. those civilians were Israelis. And after. 2 and 1/2 hours, that co-pilot took an. hatchet that was in the cockpit. Most. people didn't even know there was a. hatchet in the cockpit, and he tried to.

take control of the plane, tried to kill. the pilot, and he was only 30 minutes. from Tel Aviv. So, I've studied 8,000. suicide attacks in detail. >> I've read [clears throat] a book about. it. >> Two. You've got two. Two there. Yeah. Yeah. Cutting the fuse as well. So, so. studying all those attacks once I saw. exactly the location of where the. co-pilot tried to take uh control of the. plane, that told me very heavily this.

was likely a suicide attack. Because if. he just wanted to kill himself, the. co-pilot, he likely would have done that. almost immediately after the plane had. taken off. He wouldn't wait to just clo. get so close to Tel Aviv that then he. could have the possibility of driving it. into a target in Tel Aviv, killing. people on the plane and people on the. ground in Tel Aviv. And looking at some. of the reports here from CBS News, they. say various sort of Israeli officials. have linked it to Iran, but Trump also.

said based on what I'm hearing, the. co-pilot had direct links to Iran, warning that any state actor behind the. incident would face devastation. >> Well, so we don't know for sure it. wasn't command directed. Stephen, I'm. telling you that it wouldn't need to be. command directed. Some of the best. information we have is come from the. pilot himself. So now that he's healing, he's giving interviews here and he is. describing a situation where everything. is fine in the flight. There's no sign.

whatsoever that he's sitting with a. mentally disturbed individual looking to. somehow off himself or so forth. And. then suddenly he feels a club on his. head. Then he realizes and starts to put. two and two together. And that's when he. makes every effort to keep the door. open. And essentially what you saw here. was we're not we can't say it's uh 100%. certain it was a suicide terrorist. attack but my estimate is that it's gone.

from being say 75% certain to 90%. certain that this is an individual who. wanted to not just kill himself but to. kill everybody on that plane and to take. control of the plane just in time to be. able to ram it into Tel Aviv. Pilot said. the morning started very normally. >> Y. >> the first officer asked to pray then. struck him from behind with the clash. axe.

>> Yep. And notice the pray. So this is a. very common religious suicide attacker. They commonly will go through a certain. ritual before they do their suicide. attack. >> The pilot thought that a heavy piece of. equipment had fallen on his head before. realizing he was under assault. As his. vision tunnneled from blood loss, his. sole focus was releasing his seat belt. and crawling towards the cockpit door. release. He explained that each burst of. physical effort caused him to fade in. and out of consciousness. He noted the.

terrifying sensation of feeling the. aircraft plunge violently nose down. while he was on the floor. Believing he. would not survive, he pushed through to. unlock the reinforced door before. collapsing face down, which allowed. other passengers to see him and rush in. And then I think from what I heard in. the reports, passengers rushed through. the door, restrained the. co-pilot, and I can't I don't know who. landed the plane. Was the pilot able to. >> No, there was actually somebody on board. who was a pilot, had the knowledge to. land the plane. This was an.

unintentional backup pilot that just. happened to be there and that was um. extremely fortuitous. But what you see. here, Stephen, are the telltale signs. Because if it was suicide, then you. would have expected it to happen right. away. And if it was a suicide attacker, the first thing that that would come to. their mind is if they took control of. the plane 2 and 1/2 hours from Tel Aviv. Remember, it's a 3-hour flight to Tel. Aviv from Dubai. If they took control of. the plane too far out, well then that.

would create the opportunity for Israel. to scramble jets to prevent it from. striking Tel Aviv. So. >> So you thought you think that they were. trying to crash the plane into Israel? >> Yes, I think it's very strong and this. is what what I mean by inspired attacks. When I saw the first command directed. attack, that's the Houthis on civilians. We've seen an actual inspired terrorist. attack that has already happened. Well, let's keep going. >> The biggest unfair advantage in business.

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of this is a crisis that's unfolding. Okay. >> See, what you are seeing here is that. the election results are creating. incentives to go down this road. But. this doesn't just stay on its own path. It starts to play a role and come back. up and start to affect events here. because as this is occurring, we need to. expect gas prices are going up. We need. to expect diesel prices are going up. we.

need to expect the housing market which. is already frozen up is going to freeze. up even more. So this as we start to see. the interaction here or the the the. effects the effects are not simply. what's happening in Iran or even what's. happening in the economy and this will. be in the world economy it's going to be. what people think and we just got a big. lesson in what people think in France. and what happened in France wasn't just. a one-day problem and it wasn't just a. one-off it's starting it started to. spread to other parts of Europe the.

riots and a big part of the riots not. the only reason for the riots. So, we. have some actual opinion poll data on. this. So, I'm not just speaking. generally, but a big part of the reason. for the riots are the rising prices due. to the Iran war. Well, this is exactly. recreating and making those dynamics. worse. So, now we're back over to the. possibility here of protesters and.

federal agents starting to clash. This. is a moment when they're still counting. ballots. So now there's more and more. tests occurring, but it's also at a. point where the ballots have not been. certified yet. So notice where we are. We have moved through November and we. have nowhere near come to the end of. transfer of power to the new Congress. So we have this whole very contentious. election. We have the process here where.

we still have the counting and the. certification of the ballots. We have. that occurring not in isolation but in. addition to an international set of. events that are just. >> and also the Russia. >> and also the Russia. So we we've skipped. over Putin. So what's happened here also. in week four in week well roughly week. four. This would be around Thanksgiving. possibly. can't really polymarket it to. the day, Stephen, but we're just giving.

the sequence. So, as the Iran war is. escalating now, we have the the issue of. will there be an actual deal with Trump. and Putin that prevents Putin from. escalating on Ukraine. Putin isn't just. interested in some sort of, you know, uh, photo op with President Trump. What. he wants out of President Trump is he. wants there to be real pressure on. Ukraine to cave to Putin's demands. >> What do you think Putin wants from.

Ukraine? >> What do you think he wants generally? >> Well, let's uh let's look at some of the. maps. >> I've got a map. >> Yeah. So a really good way to understand. this you see is in this map which is. August of 2022 4 months after invaded. Ukraine. You can see that the lines here. have settled down into eastern Ukraine. You can see there's no longer Russian. forces around Keev. uh all on the edges.

of the south of Ukraine and the east of. Ukraine. And what you can see is this is. Donatka. The these are some of the areas. that Putin has already annexed. He's. officially annexed them. And also this. is Crimea. You see that Putin is still wanting to. gain at least the rest of this territory. right around here. These are the pieces. of these four Oblasts that he has not.

conquered yet. He has officially annexed. them in into Russia. He's he's actually. passed laws in Russia, but he has not. physically taken control of them. So, at. a minimum, he's interested in. controlling this bit of white around. here and here. And notice at this point, he's he's pretty far away from that. Now. he may also and he's talked about an. area called Nova Russia Rousia which is. uh this would be the next set of oblas.

just behind the first four and that is. this area called Nova Ria which is also. where vast numbers of Russian speakers. also live in Ukraine. So the debate here. is whether Putin only wants this white. territory around here or does he also. want this? But let's look where he is. four years later after four solid years. and the loss at a minimum of 250,000.

dead Russians. This is the minimum, Stephen. There's uh counts that go far. higher than that. But these are the. counts based on obituaries so that we're. really sure by name that at least that. number of Russians have died. Look at. how far he is away. Look at the white. He's gained a little bit of territory, about 1% of Ukraine territory, but look. how far away he still is from that white.

area I just pointed out. This is July. 2026, and he of course is nowhere near. the second force. So he is we So when we. say that Putin wants a deal, this is not. Putin settling for some sort of a signed. piece of paper where he's just going to. have a photo op with Trump. What he. wants Trump to do is deliver the. territory that he wants in Ukraine. What. do you think is going to happen? >> I don't think Putin is going to get. Trump is not going to be able to.

deliver. Trump can say that he'll. deliver it, but he can't do that on his. own. only Ukraine could deliver that. territory. For Zalinski to truly. surrender that territory, there's a good. chance he'll be killed by his own. people, his own military, his own. because. >> would kill him if he gave it up. >> Oh my gosh. Yes. Yes. Yes. So what what. people don't know about international. politics, I mean smart people don't. know, people who even know a lot of. history is leaders take dramatic risks.

when they're losers. I just explained to. you the risk that Trump was taking here. with the for someone in Putin's position. or Zalinsk's position where they're. literally talking about whether or not. they will gain or surrender pieces of. territory for Zalinsky to actually. surrender not just the territory Putin. currently has but even more. This is. taking his life in his hands and his.

family's life in his hands. >> What's number seven? >> Ah, so let's keep looking. This is when. Putin because doesn't get the territory. This is when Putin escalates. This is. the most likely time after Putin is sure. that Trump can't deliver any more. territory. This is uh right around. Thanksgiving. This is a likely possible. time here when Putin is going to start. to uh realize he can't get territory. from Trump, Ukrainian territory from.

Trump. So he moves to his next plan. which is the winter attacking the. electric power stations in Kev, Carke, Odessa that is the capital city of. Ukraine and two of the major cities in. Ukraine near the areas he wants to. control. And by attacking those electric. power areas, he's not looking to just. cause a couple of days of brown out. where you don't have your air. conditioning or your heating for a.

couple of days. a plan is to knock out. 90% of the power in those cities and. that would keep that out. If you truly. knock that out for that that that. amount, this is probably going to last a. month or two. >> This is very much his own escalation. trap. very much Putin is in an. escalation trap because Putin started. this by launching almost 200,000 Russian. troops in order to not just take the. southern part of Ukraine and eastern.

part of Ukraine. Remember they were. surrounding Kev. The idea here was to. take Kev. So this was to take almost. half of the country and he lost. So he. is in his own escalation trap. Putin is. because if he accepts surrender, if he. accepts capitulation, now he has his own military to deal. with. and he faces in not just. humiliation and a horrible legacy in.

history, but he really faces the fate of. a lot of authoritarian leaders do when. they lose uh major wars, which is being. killed. >> What do you think is going to happen. with both of these wars? >> I think they're going to happen at the. same time. What this what this chart is. doing, what we're really showing here on. this chart is all three of these. dynamics are occurring at literally the. over literally the same eight weeks. >> And what happens next?

>> What happens next is they start to. interact with each other. So now as we. see that we're starting to see the. escalation here of violent populism. starting in a small way for real. And. when you say violent populism, what does. violent populism mean? >> Violent populism is when. political violence moves from the fringe. to the mainstream.

where you have not just small numbers of. violent actors, but large numbers of. violent actors. You don't just have an. isolated political assassination. attempt. You have strings of them over a. period of years and you don't just have. a protest that's a localized protest. over say a police beating. Rodney King. would be the classic example of of of a. localized protest where in LA there were.

four days of riots but only in LA. That. was in the early 1990s. With violent. populism this starts to spread. It. starts to spread and become much much. more significant. Was that kind of like. the Black Lives Matter pro protest which. spread across the world? >> Exactly. It happened was a single focal. point event and I'm going to show you. how these uh actually occur in just a. moment can spread like wildfire. because with violent populism,

political violence takes on a whole new. dimension. Stephen, let me explain what. I mean. I like to use the analogy for. violent populism of a wildfire. And the. part of the reason for that is because a. lot of people know about wildfires and. they know that in why we have a wildfire. is we have this combustible material. Uh. it's often dry wood that's been sitting.

there and maybe with global warming it's. got we've gotten more of it and this is. predictable. We can actually predict the. size of the combustible material in a. wildfire season. But what we can't do in. wildfire season is predict the spark. What is the spark that's going to set. this off? These are always unpredictable. and the sparks can be a cigarette butt. that's thrown in. So let me just show.

you what that might look like. So just. in this analogy, what is the combustible. material? >> In this analogy, the combustible. material um with violent populism are. the millions of Americans on both sides. of the political spectrum who support. political violence for their goals. And. today we have over 40 million Americans. who support political violence for. Trump's goals. We have over 60 million.

Americans who support political violence. against Trump's goals. They are the. combustible material that can be set. off. So you're saying with that pretext, with the sort of anger and with people. being more supportive of violence to. achieve their political goals, all it's. going to take is a spark. >> All it's going to take is a spark. And. imagine, let's use also, cuz we already. mentioned George Floyd, let's use.

January 6 as an example. What happened. on on January 6 is President Trump used. his rhetoric, a tweet on December 19th, 2020 to call a MAGA to Washington to. listen to him at the Ellipse. Then when. they were there at the ellipse, he told. them to march on the capital still kind. of channeling where the all the dry. combustible material were. Then what. happened is there was the true spark and.

what was that true spark that set off. January 6? It was another week by Trump. where he told them Mike Pence had let. them down. At that moment, that's when. the crowd burst through into the capital. in multiple places in response to that. tweet. And that's when you can hear the. chance, "Hang Mike Pence. Hang Mike. Pence." That's violent populism in.

action. And notice what we need is just like. what you did, which is we need a fire. break. And we don't want to wait until. the next fire because that if we wait. until the next wildfires to occur, we. may not it may happen and spread so. quickly, Stephen, that we may be in a. situation like France. So notice in.

France that this wasn't just a localized. event where it was a protest that got. out of hand against one government. building. This was a series of protests. that got out of hand. And they got out. of hand just in Paris, but in multiple. cities in in in France. And then a week. later, they happened again and wasn't. just limited to Paris and cities in. France. It spread beyond itself. So this.

is what I mean by violent populism. starting to emerge and these clashes. this between uh the federal agents and. protesters over say possibly u ballot. counting. This is what I mean by a focal. point event. It's literally an event. here that can act as a spark and it can. touch off those sentiments and that is. violent populism in action. So now we.

have notice we have actual major. problems starting to happen inside the. United States. We have major problems in. Iran that are just getting worse and. these are feeding each other. We have. major problems that are happening in the. Russian Ukraine war and this too is. going to increase energy prices. This is. going to these are these are not. disconnected events anymore. Is that is. that why I think it was Wes Streeting.

that said we in the UK need to stock up. on on this stuff. >> That is exactly why I think they are. stocking. They're asking the public to. stock up on batteries so that in case. the internet goes down. Why would you. stock up on batteries? Because there's. more problems down the road here. >> The one that told me he said this, I. actually missed that piece of news. >> Yes. You're saying the UK government has. asked people in the UK to stock up on. batteries. >> on batteries, beans, flashlights, water.

Because what can happen as this pattern, as this escalation gets worse and worse. is you can start to see that Ukraine. will will uh start to back here against. Russia and then Russia may start to. punish the supporters of Ukraine and. Europe including right here in London, right here in Britain. And that's why.

the defense minister is um uh calling. for preparations. Not saying there's a. tactical intelligence that there is a. threat coming tomorrow, but I believe. looking at something like this board. that we are uh outlining, Stephen, and. looking at this and saying, well, wait a. second, wait a second. The risk here of. this starting to get out of control is. starting to become real. And rather than.

wait for a panic to ensue after there. would be a cyber attack that would say. knock out the internet for several days. or knock out electric power in Britain. for several uh for several days. Go. ahead, stock up on some stuff now so you. can ride out some of those issues. So, the UK government has officially told. households to prepare for national. emergencies, launching the Be Ready. campaign, which advises every family to.

stockpile at least 3 days worth of. essential supplies to survive potential. hostile state attacks, cyber warfare, or. major infrastructure collapse. Britons. are being asked to store 3 L of bottled. water per person per day, a 3-day cache. of non-p perishable tinned food. alongside battery powered windup. torches, radios. That's why this. >> Y Britney Spears radio.

>> battery powered radios, >> power banks, first aid kits, and. physical. physical cash. And the reason for physical cash, Stephen, is because ATMs won't work. >> Pointing directly to the reality of. modern conflict and state sponsored. sabotage. The stark question being put. to the public is how ordinary people. would cope in a moment where electronic. payment systems or local supermarket. supply chains suddenly collapsed. A. warning that has already driven panic. buying, stripping supermarket shelves of.

bottled water and canned goods while. sparking a massive run on emergency. supplies across the entire country. That. is crazy. It is and it's showing. Stephen that governments are already. paying attention to the risks that we're. laying out here. So when we see the. United States pulling back its personnel. and families from embassies around the. Middle East, when we see the British.

government initiating a be ready 3-day. preparation campaign, what you are. seeing is governments are understanding. the risks that are that are starting to. emerge. What I'm about to say is an ad, but. there's something quite different about. this particular ad. Grockbot now. sponsors this show, and I've already. invested in SpaceX, which is the company. that owns Grockbot. Grockbot is an app. on my phone, but it's also on my. computer. And basically, I have all of.

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attacks, we we need to understand that. this summer in Minnesota and in a number. of other states in the United States in. July, the power and the water went out. So, we had a water problem and the New. York Times was the only paper to cover. this. And the New York Times quoted. directly from US intelligence that said. this was most likely Iran doing a cyber.

attack inside the United States. Story. was never followed up again. That story. was not repeated by other agencies. That. has all the hallmarks of US intelligence. telling the papers not to cover the. story. Now what happened in the case is. we know it's. >> You think that's what happened? Well, I've spent a lot of time with US. intelligence community. So, in the '9s, I had a clearance, but in the last 20,

30 years, I spent an enormous amount of. time with our intelligence community. And the quotes, the language in that. article, if people will go back to the. article, you'll see that the article is. spec quoting specific people and saying. that it has Iran's fingerprints for. cyber attack. Now, that's important. That phrasing is very important, Stephen, because that's exactly the. phrasing, the unclassified phrasing that.

is used to understand the cyber. capabilities of different actors, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea. >> Do you think the water went out in. Minnesota because Iran didn't attack? And then. >> I think it's most likely Iran. Yes, I do. think. I I we can't say for certain. But. I do I I would not put it forward if I. didn't think that was a credible report. >> And then you think the US government. might have had a word with some. journalists and said, "Listen, >> yeah, take it off the table. Don't talk. about it.". >> Do they do that?

>> They do. They do. I Gulf War in 1991. There was a big effort by um the uh. Pentagon to work with CNN, ABC, others. in the news to in fact control some of. the news that was coming out. And in the. uh up to the 2003 Iraq war, um this. continued and one of the times I was on. the set, so I was on the set, I won't I. don't want to embarrass the journalist, but I was on the set in CNN and they. flew me into New York and I was.

literally on a set similar like your. team. I was just talking about how great. your team is compared to theirs and u. sitting around the table and the. reporter who's a famous reporter had me. on with certain generals and before the. cameras rolled she said so let's let's. start with the ground rules what should. we not say what should we not ask you. what should we not talk about with the. public just imagine that Stephen imagine. that okay they would ask you.

to tell them what they can't share with. the public. >> They ask people from the administration. who were this was the Bush. administration where the normal role of. the journalist is to do the opposite. In. fact, CNN very very famously got started. by interviewing Sodom Hussein in the 19. or not got started but one of the big. things that they got a lot of prominence. was interviewing Sodom Hussein when the. US military went apoplelectic when they. did. So this is what I mean by when you.

ask me would it be possible for the US. for intelligence uh US government to ask. media to uh for the good they would say. for the good of national security uh to. cool it on a story and the fact is I've. seen it myself. >> Wow. What's next? >> So now this is the big problem we worry. about. I can't tell you this is certain. to come. Would not want to do that. I'm. telling you this is the pathway and if. we get all the way down to this part of. the pathway and that's an if then we.

have to worry about real troops in the. streets when. in the weeks just before the Congress. would be seated. >> So American troops in American streets. >> American troops in American streets. >> Has that happened before? since the uh. the 50s and the 60s when in the 50s this. was a completely different environment. So, President Trump just to put why this. is even credible at all on October 1st.

in Time magazine he was interviewed. about would he declare the insurrection. act and he said specifically that he. might and he wouldn't take it off the. table. Well, the insurrection act would. be the use of US military or it could be. the national guard or the reserves. It. wouldn't have to be exactly the serving. military uh but the use of the military. in uh American uh cities and that is a. huge step. it's rarely been used. Uh and.

that's a step which under the. circumstances of the environment I am. explaining you can see that first of all. there would be an ongoing escalation in. just one war but we now have two wars. and with this could be building and. building at this point in time that. would create the environment in which. there is an actual international. emergency that's occurring. So the. insurrection act is What does that mean?

The insurrection act. >> The insurrection act is where the. president has emergency powers to use. the US military or as I said national. guard or the reserves within the borders. of the United States against the. citizens of the United States. So. normally we have a policy called P. commatatus where the president not using. the US military inside of our own. borders. for obvious reasons, Stephen,

which is just takes a a moment in. history knows that authoritarian states. have routinely used their military to. suppress their own population. So, the. United States, the leading democracy in. the world, gone way out of its way to. not uh go down that road. That's why. it's particularly striking when. President Trump will not take that. option off the table. And if there was.

not a war, one could look at the courts. and one could think, well, if President. Trump tried to invoke the Insurrection. Act, could be taken to court and the. courts would oppose that act and it. wouldn't come into being. >> What happens next in in Iran? What. happens next is now we've pushed all the. way to look at how much danger there is. that's occurring here, how much economic. pressure that's occurring. But also.

notice that the Iranian military, although it's still able to do some. strikes, they probably are pretty. significantly paralyzed. They're not. 100% paralyzed by any stretch. They're. able to launch drone strikes, probably. missile strikes, probably even cyber. attacks, but that doesn't mean it's the. same military as exists today before the. 3-day war, the 3-day air war. >> There'll be US ground troops in Iran. I.

think there's Yes. I think this is why. the Marines are moving because under the. circumstances of the sequence I've just. laid out for you. If people think that. um when President Trump is talking about. moving US Marines into uh in for limited. ground operations, this would be. necessarily a suicide mission. Now, it. could be a suicide mission, but this is. very unlikely. much more likely would be. the way this played out with instant. thunder, which is you would paralyze as.

much as you could of the Iranian. military. The Iranian military would. still have remnants that are able to. attack us pretty severely. Now, you have. the ground force option to go in to try. to deal with localized areas of those. remnants, and you have a real reason to. do it. And once we go down this road, Stephen, in fact, I'm quite concerned. that once we start the 3-day bombing. campaign, this sequence is going to be.

almost impossible to stop because once. you start the 3-day bombing campaign, this is going to unleash responses by. the uh remaining elements of the Iran. military that can fire at us and they. will be maximally incentivized to fire. at uh the Gulf. states, infrastructure. in the Gulf States. Once you go all the. way down this this far, now you're in. the true forever war. Now you're in the. forever war that we can't really get out.

of. And we are now into a world where. this is a true emergency. President. Trump will be able to start declaring. more and more emergency powers because. this will be a true emergency and it. won't be over by Christmas. These eight. weeks are the most dangerous eight. weeks. But if we go all the way through. this trajectory, Stephen, this will lead.

into a devastating. 2027. >> And lastly, >> lastly, >> what happens in Russia? Russia, we see that if in fact what the defense. minister in London is worried about. happens, if those cyber attacks happen, there's going to be enormous pressure on. Europe to retaliate directly against. Moscow. This is not a situation where. cyber attacks, see, people haven't. really experienced cyber warfare.

They've heard about it. They've read. books about it. There's science fiction. books written about it, but they haven't. experienced it. So, what they what I. think many people think is, well, the. internet goes out for 30 minutes and it. just pops right back in, right? So, what's the big deal? The this isn't the. real set of cyber attacks our government. has been worrying about for decades. The. real set of cyber attacks are much, much. more costly on publics, the American.

public, the European public. And under. those circumstances, those publiclix are. going to demand payback. Then that's. when you actually have Europe. retaliating against Moscow. And you know. what that means? You know what that word. the word is for that when Europe does. that, Stephen? World War II. That's what. World War II looks like. Many people for. months have been discussing, are we in. World War II? The answer is no. We're.

not in World War II. We have war. happening around the world and in major. parts of the world. What World War III. means, when the world's largest powers. attack each other's homelands and their. militaries. kill each other, directly engage each. other. That is not the situation today. And we've been nowhere near that even. with all of the escalations that have. happened in the Ukraine war. But aren't.

we doing that by proxy? I.e. Britain. just announced yesterday they're going. to give another 10 billion to the. Ukraine. Presumably that money is going. to be spent on killing Russians. indirectly or directly. So, aren't we in. these proxy wars already? We were in. proxy wars during the Cold War almost. every year from 1947 until 1989. We were. in proxy wars in Africa. We were in. proxy wars in Latin America. We were in.

uh wars in Afghanistan. So remember the. Soviets went into Afghanistan. We sent. in the muja. >> Difference is when they attack each. other directly. >> Exactly. So proxy wars we we have we. have faced proxy wars almost every year. during the cold war since 1947 and after. the cold war. That is not a world war. We're going to use the phrase we're in. World War three. then it should have. some semblance to World War I and World.

War II and what the real pardon me. >> that's likely. >> I hope everything we're doing here. Stephen will prevent it. So I believe. that what we're starting down now I. don't mean eight weeks from now I mean. literally from today forward. we are living through the eight most. dangerous weeks in our lives. I believe. that if we allow this momentum to carry. on on its own that it's going to lead to.

very very bad outcomes at this part of. the. and we can do a lot. >> What can we do? >> Number one is every member of Congress. who's still in the lame duck Congress. now and who's just been elected to. Congress can say one thing. No. escalation by the by the Trump. administration in Iran until the new.

Congress is seated unless Iran strikes. first. Very simple declaration. This is the core firebreak. The core fire break is no escalation on. Iran. uh the Trump administration called for. by every member of Congress sitting now. who's in the lame duck Congress and. who's just won election to the new. Congress on step one. Step number two is.

now that we're actually in counting. season and certification season, there should be every governor and every. mayor should call on President Trump to. hold a two-month moratorum on all. federally armed agents in their cities. unless the governors and mayors call for. it. A two-month moratorum. So we take. off the table the possibility.

of violent populism getting out of. control. The key sparks, we can't take. every spark off, but we can take the key. sparks off. >> Is there a third one? >> A third one incredibly important, which. is that in all of the conflicts we have. just laid out, we have the United States. in the middle of them. We have Iran in. the middle of them. We have Russia in. the middle of them. We have Iran very. central. Of course, we now have Saudi.

Arabia. We should have the core countries that. are calling themselves mediators. And. who are those countries? Pakistan, Qatar, and increasingly India. India has. been playing a quiet role behind the. scenes with Russia and uh and and. Ukraine. Those three countries that have. played this role as mediator should call. on all of the countries to do one thing. Hands off civilians.

Hands off civilians. No direct targeting of civilian. infrastructure or civilian residential. areas by states. Those are the three. If. we do those three things, what we're. doing is we are establishing fire breaks. on those that that momentum of the eight. most dangerous weeks in our lives and we.

have we do not have to simply watch as. those eight weeks unfold. Stephen, >> what about the general public? What. should they be doing? Do you take the. advice of West Streeting? Do you think. we should be stockpiling? I'm personally not doing that because um. what will happen is uh bring that back. up for a moment. Let me show you what's. really going to happen. Now we're at day. one and let's say day one we still have. a lot of uh water in our bodies. So day.

one we use one bottle of water. Now we go through day two. Day two of. the outage, we have to go through both. bottles of water because we're now. starting to run out of water. Now we're. at day three. That's what he's told us. to do. Now we're at day three and we're. definitely going through our bottles of. water. Here's the fundamental problem, Stephen. The attacks can happen again. >> You're saying there's no point.

>> What I'm saying is there's no point. And. what I'm saying is everybody will come. to that realization on day one that this. is not. going to prevent the panic. This is not. going to truly buy time those three. days. The way the governments can buy. time are those three fire breaks. And. what can every ordinary person do? They. can email, they can text, and they can. call their favorite political leader,

whoever that is, and tell them to adopt. those three fire breaks. That is how we. can navigate this journey and do. something about it. Otherwise, we're. just letting the events control us. >> I was going to ask you the question in. the book, and the question in the book. is basically, what can people do now to. prepare for the next 5 years? But I. think you might have just answered it. >> I think I did. >> Um, you have this wonderful book that's.

out now, Our Own Worst Enemies: America. in the Age of Violent Populism. You're. someone that's so incredibly well read, decades and decades and decades of the. most interesting experience. Um, anybody. is interested in these subjects that. we've talked about today, this is the. definitive book on the subject matter. It is evidence-based. There's lots of. stats and graphs and figures in here, but also um, so deeply read on history. as you are, Robert. Thank you for coming here and thank you. for continually keep keeping the lights. on for me cuz you know I remember the. first time you came and I thought what's.

he talking about escalation trap there's. no chance but it's um completely changed. my mind on how on what's going on in the. world and it's actually helped me to. understand reality and the complex messy. reality of war and incentives and ego. and humans and the human cost on the. other end of it and you know again we. always talk about Ukraine and Iran but I. think it's worth also remembering that. there. millions, tens and tens and tens of. millions of people, probably what, 130. million people combined, 40 million in. Ukraine, 90 million in Iran.

>> Absolutely. >> That are right in the heart of all of. this. And you know, it's all well and. good me sat here in our big office and. studio lamenting about what's going to. happen to them. But there are very real. people that are living there trying to. live their lives amidst all of this. absolute craziness and chaos. And my. heart goes out to them. And and Stephen, I just want to say one of the most. important things that's happening is. social media is not just a problem, but. you're seeing with your show, social. media can be a tremendous help. On the.

times I've come on your show, we have. really laid out some pretty dark. scenarios. And after the show, because. of so many people, what happens is the. questions come to the key leaders. One. of the key things when I was on just the. last time in July, we talked about we. were just about to unleash a whole. series of attacks with SenCom to go. after Iran's drone network. This would.

have been a disaster. This would not. have ended in improving matters here. And there was tremendous momentum. building for that. And this was uh uh. generals uh others in the military. ex-military and I know because what. happened after our show is uh changed. and suddenly. what was the reality the real issues. came to the four and that's one of the. big reasons I believe we didn't go down. that dark road.

>> It's because of. >> I think it's because of the diary. I. think it's because of the diary. And I. think it's not just the diary. I think. it's because on social media, what we're. able to do today that we could not do 20. years ago when we went into Iraq and. Afghanistan is we're able to have. serious substantive conversations where. we lay out the actual risks and. consequences, the true worst cases that. could come. >> And have you been contacted by anybody. at the White House?

>> Advised every White House since Are you. advising this one? >> Uh, I've advised every White House, Robert. >> I've advised every White House since. >> Have you been contacted by the White. House? >> I've advised every White House since. 9/11. And if there's um any any contact. I have been let you off the hook. >> Any contact I have, I could never ever. and and let me just simply let me just. here all day. Robert, >> have you been contacted by the White. House? You can you don't have to tell me. who, but since you've come on this show,

have they contacted you for advice? So, I've been um uh I've advised uh chief of. staff of the Air Force and I've advised. every White House since 9/11. I'm. incredibly proud of that. And the fact. of the matter is show. >> and your show among other shows, but. your show is a leading show raises the. profile of the consequences. and that is incredibly important as we. go. Okay, I'm not going to ask you about. the White House, but have people.

contacted you in positions of power? >> Yes. >> Okay. Cuz I remember last time you're on. the show, I remember I asked you, I. said, "Has this what would you advise. this White House? Have they have they. reached out?" And you said no to me when. we first met. So, subsequently, you've. been contacted by people in positions of. power. Anytime somebody in a position of. power reaches out, and that can be in. America and outside of America, it is an. incredible honor for me to uh the best. advice I possibly can and I will.

continue to do that every. >> advising the White House. >> I'm just telling you, Stephen, that I um. um. I'm No, I'm not telling you I'm doing. that. I'm telling you that what um I am. uh incredibly honored when people of. power reach out and the fact of the. matter is um Stephen that the best way. to the best way the best way to. influence the world is not always behind.

closed doors. It does happen sometimes. I'm really trying to tell you that what. happens when we explain the actual. consequences or the danger zone we're. moving into. >> I get it. I get it, Robert. This is how. it raises. >> I'm saying so are you advising people in. power in the United States? >> I'm advis I'm just telling you people in. power have contacted me. It's been a. tremendous honor and I'm very glad. >> I'm glad I'm glad I'm glad they're I'm. glad they're listening. >> Are they listening?

>> These people in power Steven um At some. at some point at some point at some. point at some point we're going to be. able to look back on this and be able to. um say how did we get through this. period of time and we're going to have. those conversations. But the way we're. going to way we're going to do this is. >> listen listen. >> I'm asking are they listening? Are the. people you I'm not asking who they are. what they're asking you about. I'm. saying are they listening? I'm tell so. the people in power who have um.

contacted me do believe um are listening. whether they're in the United States or. around the world and I do believe that u. and I just want to point out that one of. the big issues here is communicating the. true risks that we're running in. powerful ways. >> Robert, thank you. >> Thank you. Thank you for turning the. lights on for so many of us and bringing. and simplifying complexity. It's all so. complex cuz there's so much rhetoric and.

propaganda and stuff. So, it's nice to. sit with lots of different people that. have lots of different perspectives and. have the wealth of experience that you. have and have it laid out to me that I. can really comprehend. So. hopefully we avoid this escalation. I. believe this is how if we're going to. avoid it. I'm an optimist and that's why. I'm excited to be on your show. Not. because I want to see the doom loop, but. because I want to see us come to a. better world. >> I tell you, I'm glad the White House. reached out. Thank you, Robert. I've. done that. [laughter].

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