Global Forecaster: The Brutal 2026 Shift (And The Crisis They Can’t Stop)

These conversations aren't always easy, but nonetheless, they are important. So, every single year, Professor Ian Bremer, who's one of the world's leading. political scientists, produces this. [music] risk report, and it highlights. the top 10 biggest risks that everybody. should be thinking about. And today, he's going to talk to me about the three. that matter the most. [music] So, he. predicts that a US political revolution. is on its way. the US has become the. biggest [music] driver of geopolitical. uncertainty in the world and in my view.

Trump will fail. >> And he also says that the other thing. everybody needs to be talking about and. aware of is what's really playing out. with AI behind the scenes. >> They created a model which is so. powerful that they couldn't release it. because it would have been an immediate. systemic risk to the global economy and. our security and artificial intelligence. is eating its users. and we can talk. about that. >> And lastly, I want to end on a point of. optimism. Can we take this craziness and.

turn it into a utopia with realistic. solutions? This is super interesting to me. My team. given me this report to show me how many. of you that watch this show subscribe. And some of you have told us according. to this that you are unsubscribed from. the channel randomly. So, favor to ask. all of you. Please could you check right. now if you've hit the subscribe button. if you are a regular viewer of the show. and you like what we do here. We're. approaching quite a significant landmark. on this show in terms of a subscriber. number. So, if there was one simple free. thing that you could do to help us, my. team, everyone here to keep this show.

free, to keep it improving year over. year and week over week, it is just to. hit that subscribe button and to double. check if you've hit it. Only thing I'll. ever ask of you. Do we have a deal? If. you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll make sure every single week, every. single month, we fight harder and harder. and harder and harder to bring you the. guests and conversations that you want. to hear. I've stayed true to that. promise since the very beginning of the. Dio and I will not let you down. Please. help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get. on with the show. [music].

Ian Bremer, what is this document that I. have in front of me here? >> This is our top risk report. We put it. out at the beginning of every year. try. to help people around the world. understand the risk environment. globally. >> So for the last 30 years your firm has. been trying to understand the world to. help make better decisions based on the. big picture of what's happening. geopolitically.

>> Yeah. >> And every year your firm releases this. top risk report. >> The 2026 one appears to be pretty. prophetic because a lot of things that. you list as the top risks are playing. out before our eyes. For anyone that. hasn't read this report, what are the. most important subjects? You wrote this. in January. We're now sat here in April, I believe. >> What are the most important subjects of. the top 10 risks that you think we. should talk about today? I think that. there are three that are really big. Um, the first is that the United States has.

become the biggest driver of risk, the. biggest driver of geopolitical. uncertainty in the world. And we see. that with the tariffs. We see that with. Venezuela. We see it with Greenland. We. see it with Iran. I mean, if there was. that level of uncertainty in a smaller. political system, and that happens all. the time, we wouldn't care as much. because the global impact would not. matter. But everyone out there is. affected by even small changes in the.

United States. Suddenly, big changes in. the United States. The Americans are. saying, "We no longer want to play by. the rules that we set up historically. We don't want the free trade system that. we put together. We don't want to be the. global policeman that is paying for the. collective security. We don't want the. open borders that used to welcome so. many people from around the world. We. want a very different set of rules. It's. the American system is not being.

challenged by the Chinese saying we. don't want the Americans themselves and. the leadership are saying we refuse to. be the leader that we used to be. >> So that's number one. Yeah, that is. number one. >> And this is a critical risk. >> That is a critical risk. That's but it's. the most important without any question. >> And again, I say critical in terms of it. is happening right now. It is. overwhelmingly likely. It's. overdetermined. Um and the impact is. massive. So there's no way you could. look at the geopolitical order today and. not say this is the most important thing.

that is not just driving headlines but. that's creating real movement in how the. global economy works, how global. politics works, global security, everything is driven by this change. >> And what's the second one? >> The second one is the big question of. how the second most powerful country in. the world is responding to all of that. Now we in the top risks piece talked. about overpowered. Overpowered being the.

global energy dynamic. How China has. been working to build the most effective. electric vehicles all over the world at. scale and the batteries all over the. world at scale and the critical minerals. in rare earths for decades now. not just. having access so they can exploit them, but also so that they can reprocess. them. >> For anyone that doesn't know what. critical minerals are, >> Yeah. >> and how important they are to our. everyday lives, could you give us some.

color there? >> Sure. We're talking about all of these. things that you take out of the ground, whether it's lithium, antimony, >> which is in all these devices, >> in every device, in your car battery, it's in your missile systems and your. advanced weaponry that keeps you safe at. home or allows you to go to war against. somebody. I mean, you can't have an. advanced economy without critical. minerals and rare earths. and and the.

Chinese have been investing at scale. globally in that capability for decades. now, thinking long term. And a lot of. the rest of us have not been thinking. long term. We're like just in time, globalization. How do we make the most. money now for our next quarterly return? And that reality is making China not a. better economy today, but it's setting. them up for a much stronger long-term. trajectory. So, as a risk, you're going.

to ask me to do this. It is not as. critical as the US political revolution. because this is focusing on 2026 and. China is playing out over a longer. period of time. But it is absolutely. severe because the Chinese understand. that long-term. as countries are saying the Americans. are less predictable and we're more. vulnerable to their sudden changes in. decisions. Many more countries are. saying well we want to hedge and do more.

with the Chinese and those decisions. really matter. If this continues, if. this direction of travel continues, what. happens next in terms of global order, in terms of the Middle East, in terms of. all of these things we've talked about, >> Trump will fail. Um, and and I think. that the level of policy incompetence. and unwillingness to take on expertise. is ensuring that it will fail. He's. quite unpopular on so many issues right. now. He's going to lose in a big way in. the midterms coming up in November. And. that will make him look like a lame.

duck. and Republicans will start to. think about their own futures as opposed. to holding on to this 80-year-old guy. Having said that, we will not have. resolved these underlying challenges for. average Americans. So, there will still. be a demand for a political revolution. in the United States. The question will. be will the next person that comes and. captures that are they going to be. focused on themselves or focused on the. country? Right? that Trump actually. identified the symptoms and was able to.

benefit as a political entrepreneur. twice from getting elected in free and. fair elections. Right. Mostly the. reality is a future person. We we're in. New York right now. Zoran Mdani, a. democratic socialist, is the mayor of. New York City, which is like the capital. of global capitalism and finance in the. world. What does that tell you? That. tells you that there's still a demand. for something very different. And we.

don't know is it going to come from the. left or the right, but we know that that. level of uncertainty is growing. And. it's not just growing in the United. States. It's growing in the global. order. Because if the Americans are no. longer willing to act as the global. leader, but no one else is capable of. filling those shoes, you don't have a G7. or a G20 where governments come together. and agree on the rules of the road. You. have a G0, an absence of global. leadership, where people, the powerful,

make the rules that are useful to them. and the weak have to accept that, have. to find a way to live under that. That. that's where we're heading. There was a. Yale poll in April 2026 that said Camala. Harris is leading the overall Democratic. field with 20% narrowly edging out Gavin. Newsome at 19% and Pete Bhajed at 14%. with AOC at 13%. Means literally nothing to me. You know, I think it was Jim Carville, the great. um Democratic political strategist that.

was talking about November. He said, "You know what the Democrats need to do? They need to all get on a plane and go. to Turks and Caos until after the. election. Say nothing. be absent. Just. do not be and allow it's it's like um. you know the SunSu it's like when your. when your opponent is making mistakes. stay out of their way. >> When you say the election, do you mean. the midterm election? >> Midterm election. Yeah. Yeah. So for now. there there's nothing happening except. Trump and the reaction to Trump. Then. after that we have a two-year long god.

god help us uh election in the United. States. billions of dollars will be. spent and people will have far too much. information about far too many of these. people. Then we can have a conversation. It is too early to talk about 2028 right. now. >> I have to ask you then what on earth is. going on? >> I wonder when we're going to get there. We got this big map in front of us here. We haven't even touched the Middle East. We literally haven't touched it. >> What is going on? Like really take me. back to the beginning. What did Trump. think was going to happen? How is this. linked to Venezuela? Why would he do.

this after saying that he was the. president that was going to stop all the. wars? What is the big picture here? >> And literally one of the eight wars that. he said that he had stopped was with. Iran. >> This was not what he was voted in on. >> He was voted in, he ended the war in. Afghanistan. I mean, he cut the deal. with the Taliban. Was it a great deal? Yeah, for the Taliban it was pretty. good. But it got the Americans out. 20. years, a trillion dollars fought on the.

backs of the Afghan people and of. Americans, not wealthy Americans, not. people like Trump that could find a way. out of service, but poor Americans. >> and Europeans. >> Yeah. And Europeans who fought side by. side with the Americans when the. Americans asked them to. almost all of. them sending troops and many of them. wounded and dying in the same numbers, the same percentages, just as courageous. as the Americans were, right? So, Americans wanted an end to that. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, what the.

hell are you guys doing? We're not. benefiting that. Stop it. Trump stopped. it. So, why did he do this? >> Why did he do this? >> Why did he do this? I think there are. three reasons why he did it. I'll take. you through. First reason you said. Venezuela, not on this map. Shouldn't be. relevant to this map. Turns out it's. relevant to this map. Trump had plans to. take out Maduro. He's got a lot of people inside his. administration that see this guy as a. real problem. And by the way, a problem. for the region. 8 million Venezuelan.

refugees destabilizing the region. Lots. of drug export destabilizing the region. So he had been planning to do something. >> Was it also linked to oil? it was. relevant. They have the world's largest. oil reserves. It is going to take far. more years than Trump will be in office. to make that meaningful. So, it sounds. good from a branding perspective and. you're going to see a few hundred. thousand more barrels a day, but it's. it's going to be years. If you saw that. um testimony by the CEO of Exxon Mobile.

who said, you know, Venezuela is not. investable today and Trump was angry at. him and all the other energy CEOs like, "Thank you for saying that. We're not. saying anything like him. Look at him. Look at him. Not much courage among. those CEOs publicly. So the oil is a. great headline for Trump. It doesn't. matter much for Trump's presidency as we. know. >> Just to get some color on that. Is that. because they just can't they have to. build up lots of infrastructure to be. able to extract it? >> Oh yeah. And and because all their. engineers are gone, most of them in the. oil patch up in Canada, which has.

similar uh geology to it because they've. destroyed so much of their. infrastructure. It's broken down because. the governance structure isn't there. yet. They don't have people that are. capable of actually ensuring that there. will be contracts that you would follow. through on engage in people that still. have huge lawsuits that need to be. resolved. Right? So all of this stuff. but to get to your I don't want to lose. sight of your why did Trump do this in. Iran. So the first point is beginning of. the year Trump goes in to Venezuela,

right? It is the most successful. military operation you can possibly. imagine. Not a single American. serviceman or woman is killed. They go. in, they take Maduro out. They don't. kill him. They don't injure him. They. bring him to a jail in Brooklyn, right. here in New York. Out of burrow, but. still counts. New York City, right? Extraordinary. And he's facing justice. And meanwhile, Deli Rodriguez, right?

Suddenly, vice president becomes acting. president. It's like, "Sir, we want to. work with you guys. We don't want any of. that." Right? And so, you've got a new. government that is has a different. trajectory, but it's basically the same. regime. And they say, "Whatever you. want, we will work on. You want we'll. open our oil sector. We'll open our. mining sector. We'll have better rags. We'll we'll we'll try to improve the. economy for the average Venezuelan. I. mean, they're starting to become. popular. In another year, if they had. elections in Venezuela, it is not.

inconceivable that she would win in a. democratic election, which is like blows. your mind, right? Whole bunch, hundreds. of political prisoners, they've. released. I talked to leaders all over. South America. They all think this was a. success. This is enormously popular. among the populations in those countries. because they care about security. That's. what they've been voting on. Their. elections have been about the economy. and local security and Venezuela has. been a problem for them, right? I mean,

they're exporting people causing crime. Colombia, Peru, Brazil, this Chile, right? This has been a serious issue. Trump Trump is hugely feeling great, successful, and now he's like, I can do. that in Iran. I can do it even bigger. That's the first reason. That's the I. said three reasons. That's the first. reason. Second reason, this is not. Trump's first rodeo with the Iranians. In his first presidency, the Iranians. were engaging in strikes against the. Americans directly and with proxies, uh,

bases in Iraq, other places also were. taking on strikes against the biggest. refinery in the world in Saudi Arabia. Those drone strikes, you may remember, the Saudis and the Amiradis were telling. the Americans, when are you going to do. something? we need to take some action. Trump didn't want to do anything. They're getting angry, right? Finally, the end of his presidency, he orders, pretty bold move, the assassination of. this incredibly charismatic military. leader, Kasamsulammani, the head of the.

Kuds force as it was called in Iran. And. Iran was so angry and they were going to. destroy the United States. Death to. America. What do they actually do? Nothing. And then last June, Iranians are developing their ballistic. missiles. They're developing their. nuclear enrichment in radian enrichment. They're like stockpiling at higher. levels 60% and the Israelis want to go. in. Trump's providing intelligence. He. doesn't want to go. Kind of dangerous. The Israelis go in. It's enormously.

popular. It's going well. Succeeding. Trump's like, I want a part of that. That's successful. So, he joins in. Second time Israel took casualties about. 100 killed I think in the course of that. 12-day war. The United States Iran. talked big did not hit the Americans. They threw some missiles at that Alade. base in Qatar, the biggest US base. They. warned the Americans through Iraq before. the missiles were launched. So it was. very clear the Iranians didn't want any. part of that fight. So Trump is thinking.

to himself, "This is going to be awesome. cuz I'm going to go in. I'm going to. pull Venezuela in Iran. And I know they. don't want to fight me. I kill the. Supreme Leader, 86 years old. He's going. to die anyway. He's not that popular. among the Iranian, the Islamic. Revolutionary Guards Corps, the IRGC, because they're the ones that really run. the country. I'm going to have this huge. military force that shows what I'm. capable of doing. Then the rest of the. Iranian leadership, they're going to. want to work with me just like they did. in Venezuela. That was reason number. two. And then the most important reason,

the most important reason is that unlike. Trump's first term where he had people. around him that were patriotic first and. foremost to the country and when they. had disagreements with Trump, they let. him know and they leaked and they also. um were willing occasionally to do what. they could to undermine an incompetent. decision that would hurt the country. And we saw that whether it was with Mike. Pompeo or or or Mad Dog Mattis, right?

All of these people who were much more. independent, strong actors. This time. around, Trump has some really good. adviserss, people like Marco Rubio and. uh Scott Besson. He also has some. staggeringly incompetent adviserss like. Pete Hegath for example. But what they. all share is that they are first and. foremost loyal to the president and they. will not tell him. They won't push back. And what he hears from them is shaded.

towards how brilliant he is. And that. makes him think that he will be more. successful even when the military thinks. this is a horrible idea. And we just saw. this with the reporting from the head of. the joint chiefs, Dan Kaine, who clearly. thinks that this is a really bad idea. and understands that the military um. scenarios are super dangerous and that. the Iranians will be able to shut down. the straight. And every military in the. US for the last 20, 30 years has gamed. out how the Iranians could shut down the.

straight in a major conflict. And Trump. hears very little of that and he's. taking away. I'm incredible. I'm. confident I'm going to make this happen. Those are the reasons he went in. >> And so he thought it would be take out. the Supreme Leader, then they'll. negotiate. We'll get a better deal. We'll have a political system there or. political leader there that is obedient. to us. >> Yep. It'll be and it'll be maybe it. won't be a day, but it's not going to be. a month. >> And what actually happened? >> That did not happen. What actually.

happened is um the Americans took out. well the Israelis took out the supreme. leader and also took out a lot of the. military leadership that the Americans. had been speaking to which is why Trump. came out and he said well a lot of the. guys were talking to are dead now so we. don't really know who to work with. He. said that in the not even if it's true. and it was you don't want the president. saying that right he has no filter. Um. so which is which is one of the more. interesting things about this. presidency. What happened is the Iranian. leadership was taken out. The response.

was immediately what they call this. mosaic situation uh where they. decentralized the um military decision-m. to local commanders because they were. worried that the high level commanders. if they were on cell phones, if they. were engaging with other commanders, the. Israelis would know where they were and. they'd be able to assassinate them. So. then suddenly the Iranians were taking. shots at other at Gulf states at. critical infrastructure and stopping.

transit from the straight. >> This is one of the questions I had is in. several interviews that Trump has done. he alludes to the fact that he thinks. he's talking to the right people. Do you. really believe I know there was a. meeting recently in Pakistan where they. sent JD Vance in to negotiate with Iran. Do you think anyone is running Iran at. the moment? Is there leadership in Iran? Is it possible to negotiate and control. all of these dispersed forces. um at the moment? >> First, the honest answer is it's. impossible to know because this is right.

now the the the internal decision-m of. Iran is extremely buttoned up. Um and it. they ain't talking to anyone uh about. that. >> But it's very easy to assess two things. first um that their ability to make. centralized decision plans and implement. them is real. So when their biggest gas. field is hit and they say we're going to.

hit you back in return, they are able to. implement on that in short order. So. we've seen a number of occasions in the. last five weeks where Iran has gone from. statement made by the foreign ministry. and by spokespeople to action taken by. local commander in Iran which implies. that there is a centralized structure. We also see toll taking on the strait by. individuals that are being ordered by. the central Iranian government to do. that. They're not operating by.

themselves. So in that regard, the fact. that the Iranians showed up in Islamabad. in Pakistan with significant leadership. with the foreign minister, also the. speaker of the parliament, but also a. team of experts who had briefs on. negotiating on a number of different. points on the street and on ballistic. missiles and on support of proxy actors. and on the nuclear issue which proved. the most divisive in those 21 hours of.

talks. shows that this regime is still very. much functioning despite all of the. Israeli and the American efforts to say. that, you know, they've done all this. incredible damage. This regime is still. very much in place. >> and they couldn't get a deal. So Trump. announced that he's going to block the. strait of Humuz himself. >> just hours ago. I think that that is. also overstated. You have 21 hours of talks led by the. vice president of the United States. I. assure you if these talks were a.

disaster, they don't last 24 hours. Two. or three and then they're out. 21 hours. means very substantive conversations on. the entire range of topics that were of. importance to the Americans and the. Iranians. Trump did not get the outcome. he wanted. Ultimately, I'm not super. surprised because the Iranians feel like. they have more leverage right now than. the United States thinks they do. And. this frustrates Trump immensely. And so. at the end, remember he's he's calling. and talking with Vance more than 10.

times over the course of this entire. conversation. It's a they're they're in. regular contact. At that point, Trump. says, "Okay, I'm blockading the street.". But just before markets open on Monday, you also see reporting that, well, these. talks that were a disaster, we're we're. going to engage in further talks. So. maybe it wasn't such a disaster. Maybe. what's really going on here is Trump. wants to show that he still has more. leverage to use against the Iranians.

because he's lost a lot of his leverage. He gave a speech to the American people, one speech so far about Iran. Prime time. speech. In that speech, he said, "War's. almost over. Two to three weeks, Max. We're done. If I'm the Iranians and I. hear that, I'm like, great. The. Americans can't take this pain anymore. They can't take it." He keeps saying, "Straits, not my problem. Straits, let. them take care of it." I hear that I'm. the Iranians. Great. He can't take this. economic pain. He knows he doesn't have. a military solution. So, it's not that.

the Iranians are only hearing for Trump, I'm going to destroy your civilization. They're seeing what he's actually doing. >> And he seems to change his mind a lot or. not follow through on some of the. threats that he makes. >> Right. Of course. >> And then they also will be aware that. he's becoming increasingly unpopular. >> on this issue specifically. on this. issue. >> on this issue specifically. He is. underwater just like he was on Greenland. where he eventually completely did a. 180. He was going to put tariffs on all. the Europeans that supported Denmark. He. had to take Greenland. Those things went. away. >> So you're sat there. You're going.

Trump's own people are pressurizing him. to get the hell out of here. >> He's unpopular day by day. It's hurting. his economy. Correct. His midterms. elections that are coming up. He's going. to be severely hurt and he's going to. lose power in that regard. So actually. the Iranian leaders, I mean they might. be incentivized just to wait it out. >> That's right. Because they don't think. they have to wait it out for months. >> It's a democracy. So he's going to be. unelected at some point in a couple. years. >> They saw China. China did this right. last year, Liberation Day as Trump.

called it where he puts tariffs on all. these countries. He puts these high. tariffs on China. They hit back. He does. it again. They hit back again. He's. like, "I'm going to do export controls.". I said, "Well, we're going to shut down. your critical minerals." Suddenly CEOs. are going to Mara Lago. They say you got. to deal with the Iranians or or we're. going to shut down our factory lines. In. red states, Trump has to back down. Right? So they've we've already seen. that when a country has leverage over. Trump and they can hit him, he has the. most strong military in the world, but. he also has a glass jaw. He can't take a.

hit the way that unelected. non-democracies can. The Chinese and now. the Iranians over the Strait. So what. Trump is doing with announcing the. blockade, and by the way, he hasn't. broken the ceasefire. So even though a. blockade is an act of war, he still. hasn't said, "Okay, you guys have to. start hitting the Iranians again right. now." So he this is still deescalated. compared to a week ago. A week ago, this. looked much more dangerous than it looks. today. He's saying to the Iranians, hey, I'm willing to cut off your source of.

funds. I'm willing to stop you from. exporting oil and making money off of. it. same Trump that suspended those. sanctions on Iran because he wanted to. keep the prices down. So that's that's. what's happening right here. >> Iran also, again, I'm trying to put. myself in the the mind of, you know, the. incentive structure of the Iranian. leaders. They can't let it be seen or. known that dropping bombs on us made us. pander to you. Because if they set that. precedence, then for the next couple of.

decades, every American leader is going. to know, okay, if you want Iran to play. ball, all you do is take out their. leadership, you drop loads of bombs on. everything they have, and then they come. and negotiate with you and give up their. nuclear weapons and everything else. So, I imagine there's an element of an. Iranians now going, if we buckle here, then for the rest of time, America are. going to repeat this playbook. >> I I hear what you're saying. I I would. put it slightly differently. I I think. that after the 12-day war last June, the.

Iranians understood that their deterrent. capacity had failed. They were incapable. of preventing the Americans and the. Israelis from hitting them and their. proxies whenever they wanted. We've. talked a lot about Iran. We haven't. talked at all about Lebanon. There's. another war going on in Lebanon right. now. The Israelis are hitting the. Lebanese very hard. There's over a. million displaced people in the last. several weeks. >> Why? Why? What? What is this war? >> Well, Hezbollah, which is um a terrorist.

organization uh as recognized by Israel. and the United States, though not. everybody, continues to have the ability. to engage in strikes against Israel. Nowhere close to the strength of the. Israeli military. But le the Lebanese. government promised to disarm them. They. have not done that. And so Hezbollah has. been able to continue to engage in. missile strikes, relatively small. numbers of missile strikes into the. north of Israel where Israeli citizens. live. There was a period of time after. the October 7th um attacks by Hamas.

where over a 100,000 Israelis had to. evacuate from their homes and their. schools and the rest for like a year. because Hezbollah was making their lives. hell. Right? So what Israel is now doing. is they're going to take territory about. 5 to 7 kilometers of Lebanese land. They're going to occupy it as a buffer. zone to protect those Israeli civilians. from Hezbollah being able to hit them. with their weapons. That is the.

intention here. And so what Iran. understands is that their ability to. deter Israel from hitting Hezbollah, Hezbollah at the beginning in October. 7th, Hezbollah was the most powerful. non-state military in the world. No one. else was close. And today, Hezbollah has. shown that their leadership gets. targeted and destroyed, assassinated. across the board by the Israelis, that. their military is incapable, their. critical infrastructure can be.

disrupted, and that Israel can also hit. Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, and no. one can do anything and return to. Israel. >> There's lots of chaos going on in the. world right now. >> Yes. Was there a way to have avoided all. of this? Was there something that. someone could have done further upstream. to avoid all this chaos that we're. seeing now in the Middle East? Like what. was the first domino that fell. >> in Iran? You do have an enormously repressive. regime that has the ability um to take.

action against their own people in a in. in a incredibly brutal way as we saw. play out in January. >> And it's also a regime that does not. respect the right of Israel to exist. It's also a regime that has been sending. weapons and money and military advice to. other revolutionary actors around the. region, undermining security in Yemen, undermining security um in Iraq,

undermining security in Syria. So, I. mean, the fact that at the core of the. Middle East, you have a revolutionary. regime that was exporting instability. and violence is a serious problem. That's number one. Number two, Israel. America's top ally in the region. America first. But Trump still gives. billions of dollars every year to. Israel, even as he's cut off military. aid and support for almost everyone, including for Ukraine. Right. This. country is very capable of now attacking. all of its enemies and creating outcomes.

that it wants whether or not it creates. instability in those countries. We've. seen that in Gaza and the West Bank, right? I mean reality is Israel is. continuing to take more and more. territory in the West Bank and no one. can do anything about it. They hit. Lebanon really hard. No one can respond. to that. So that is creating a reality. where Israel is able to determine. outcomes and even attack Iran directly. with the United States. They felt very. confident about taking that on and that.

there would not be backlash that would. undermine Israel's own political. survival. It wasn't an existential risk. to Israel and even if Iran developed. nukes which is everyone wants to prevent. from happening but Israel has their own. nukes right I mean they have like a 100. plus so those are two fundamental. drivers of of conflict and instability. in the region one aligned with the. United States one a revolutionary. theocracy there have been very positive.

developments in this region very. positive developments first of all Syria. Assad was a brutal dictator that was. overthrown by his own people and his own. military would not support and fight for. him and the Russians proved that they. couldn't support him in a significant. way. And so now you have an opportunity. for Syria to become a representative. government that can engage with others. around the region and more broadly. That's a positive. You've got Saudi. Arabia and the UAE and Qatar that are.

engaging in transformative domestic. policies to attract investment from all. over the world to build experiences that. everyone would want to travel and engage. in to create work opportunities that are. far better remunerated than anything. that foreign labor could get in their. own home countries allowing them to. bring money home. And in the case of. Saudi Arabia specifically, they're. taking 35 million people. Half of that.

economy used to be closed to women and. now they're bringing women into the. economy. They're actually not just. educating them, but they're giving them. opportunities in every area of. employment. That is one of the most. extraordinary stories in the world today. in terms of change and governance and. that continues. Then final point here is. that in the context of this Iran war we. do and in the context of a United States. which is doing less global leadership. there are questions of how these.

countries that are aligned with the US. want to ensure their own futures. And so. we see increasingly two different blocks. that are starting to form. You've got. the United Arab Emirates together with. Israel. You remember the Abraham Accords. which was Trump's big foreign policy. success in his first term where he got. these countries the UAE and others to. recognize Israel and and start doing a. lot more tourism and you know business. and technology transfers and the rest.

So UAE, Israel, the United States and. India are increasingly aligning on. national security and technology and. they're becoming more of a international. block. based on this region. At the same time, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan long worked. together on defense are now much more. public about an alliance. Pakistan is. nuclear, Saudi Arabia is not, but. Pakistan would provide them nuclear. weapons if they really wanted it. That's.

absolutely something to think about. They are increasingly becoming a. regional defense quad. Four countries. together with Turkey and Egypt. Big. countries, big populations aligning more. diplomatically and on defense calling. for a regional security architecture in. the region, but that would not be easily. aligned with the UAE, America, Israel, and with India. So that is also a.

significant tension. And in the context. of all of that, 95 million people in. Iran whose military has been. substantially degraded, whose economy. and industry have been substantially. degraded and who were already running. their economy into the ground before the. war happened. These guys aren't winners. They're survivors, right? They have influence over the. strait, but they're not winning. And. this is dangerous long term. >> Your firm makes a lot of predictions. So. I I wanted to ask you to help me try and.

look forward as to how this conflict. might end. Um we're in a position now. where it seems that the US aren't going. to give up the demand to Iran that they. cease to develop and pursue nuclear. enrichment. It appears that Iran have. said that they want the right and they. believe they have the right, they said. this before this conflict started to. enrich uranium and to have nuclear power. plants and all these kinds of things. So. how does this end? Like Trump's now he's. blockaded the straight off news.

>> Um we're in another standoff. >> Cease fires in place. >> The ceasefires in place which I think he. said was 14 days. >> and we're now probably what got 9 10. days left of that. >> Yeah. >> He's thinking a lot about his legacy. He. can't be reelected. He talks sometimes. about, you know, winning the peace prize. and want wanting to be on a Mount. Rushmore of presidents and all this. So. he he can't just leave. If he just. leaves, then Iran carry on with their. enrichment program. It goes down in. history almost like a Bush failure,

geopolitical failure. He can't just. leave. He has to be seen to win. But. also Iran can't let him be seen to win. So So how what happens? I think unlike. almost anybody else you can imagine, if. he decided that he wanted to end this, he could end this. He could just leave. and he would say, "I won." He's already. said this in different ways. I don't. even care about the nukes because we've. already intumeded them. They're under. all this rubble. We've got satellite. coverage. If the Iranians try to get at.

them, we can hit them back. He's already. said that there's already a regime. change. It's already new people. We can. work. We can talk with these people. He. already said the strait isn't his. problem, right? But of course, he's also. said different things sometimes in the. same tweet. Right. So he he's picking. and choosing. But what I'm suggesting to. you is that Trump has already moved. towards deescalation. >> You're spot on when you say he's set the. stage to back out. >> To back out. >> We won. Regime change. Straight is not. my problem. We have our own oil. Blah. blah blah blah blah. But then. >> if you don't open that straight, I'm.

going to end civilization. >> Yeah. >> So which was which didn't seem to fit. It seemed like he was setting the stage. to back out. And then suddenly the. civilization tweet, I'm going to bum. bomb your bridges and your nuclear power. plants. Which suddenly made me think, okay, so maybe he does really care. >> And wasn't plausible, by the way. I. mean, there was no chance that he was. actually going to do all that that. evening. >> So why didn't he just back out? >> Well, I do not want to be Trump's. psychologist, right? It is very clear. that he is impulsive and that he does. not have much impulse control. Nor does.

he create around him mechanisms that. create impulse control that enforce. impulse control. He's on his phone all. the time. He watches the media. relentlessly. People engage with him. from all over the world on his cell. phone and he has recency bias. The thing. he heard and saw last, he frequently. focuses on. >> But he also watches the markets. He. seems obsessed with the stock stock. market. >> That's why so many of the announcements. he makes are right before or right after. the market opens. And obviously there's. been a lot of insider trading concerns. around that too. And people there's he's.

concerned about personal enrichment and. people around him making billions of. dollars. That plays in too. I I wish it. didn't. It's it's horrible to talk. about. But you can't avoid that topic. What happens? You want to know what. happens? I don't have a crystal ball. No. one does. But where I think this could. be going on the basis of that, the most. likely outcome is that the ceasefire is. eventually extended. That [snorts] we. have those talks that were 21 hours that. were substantive. There'll be more. talks. Maybe not with the vice. president, but there'll be more talks.

They'll become more substantive. and. that eventually I expect that the. Iranians are more likely to give on the. nuclear issue and on enrichment. if they're able to maintain a privileged. position on transit through the straight. because that will help provide them with. money and with security. They get a. level of deterrence if everybody knows. these guys could shut down the straight. in the future. That helps them. They. never had nukes. They weren't going to. get nukes. If they got nukes, they were.

going to get blown up. Like everyone. knew that they were two weeks away if. they had access to the material and they. reprocessed the nuclear grade and they. weren't stopped by the Americans and the. Israelis. That's a lot of ifands, right? So, but here they've got influence over. the strait. They have it. They've used. it. They're using it. They're making. money. Trump does not have a military. plan to hit them back. So, I think that. is the most likely outcome. If that is. the case, then over time the Iranians. will cut more deals with more countries.

to get more oil out. And meanwhile, there will be after the ceasefire is in. place and strong, then the Europeans and. other countries, the Indians, other. countries will come in and they will. start escorting ships to create a more. secure environment in the strait itself. That is the good scenario or it's the. less bad scenario because all of this. should have been avoided. I want to make. sure I'm clear on this scenario. You're. saying that they'll concede on the. nuclear point Iran potentially. >> at least somewhat. I think they will.

compromise on the nuclear point, >> but in turn they'll get more control. over the straight. Yes. >> And what does that mean? That they'll be. able to decide who goes through there. They'll get a toll. Oh, they'll get. >> they'll be able to charge. And by the. way, you could define them charging the. toll as part of the reconstruction money. that they're going to need for the war. that they just. >> reparations for. >> I mean, they'll call it reparations. No. one else will call it reparations, but. that's fine. I think that is the good. scenario again, the less bad scenario, and I would say it is more likely than.

not. There is another scenario, right? And the other scenario is that. everything that Trump has been saying is. because he doesn't yet have a military. plan. Over the last days with all this. ceasefire, there's still this new. aircraft strike group that is motoring. its way over to the Gulf. You got. thousands more American troops that are. heading into position, ground troops, right? They're going to have almost. 15,000 total that will be deployed by.

Trump since this war started. They're. going to be there in the next 2 weeks. Once Trump has them there, he can use. them. And there are lots of things he. might use them on. He keeps saying, I. keep seeing him go back. Before I was. talking about all the ways he was. saying, we don't need to defend the. strait. We don't need the nuclear. we. can hit them. But he also has been. saying we should take the oil. >> I've heard him say this on a number of. occasions. I've also seen him say if. just the American people were a little.

more patient, we can take the oil. What. does he mean by taking the oil? That's. not a block. B blockade isn't taking the. oil. Blockade is stopping the Iranians. from getting the oil out. Take the oil. is control the export facility on Car. Island. Right. And and explain this for. for anyone that doesn't know what Car. Island is and the significance of it in. the oil situation. >> This is this is a comparatively small. island. It's about half the size of. Manhattan. >> It's not incredibly fortified or. defended. Um and it's very close to the.

Iranian shore and it is uh responsible. for 90% of the export of Iranian oil. sentcom the central command say that you. can take Car Island with 12 to 15,000. men relatively comfortably. >> So where is Car Island on here? >> Yeah. So Car Island is right about here. It's not in the straight itself, but it. is this is it's right off of the Iranian. coast and and we're talking about 90% of.

Iranian oil export comes out through. there. So if the Americans take it, obviously very easy for the Iranians to. be engaged in strikes against them, but. the Iranians will not be able to get any. oil out. So suddenly the Americans have. far more leverage over the Iranian. economy, right? In a very direct way, in. a very targeted way. And that is the way. that you take the oil. >> Could Trump take the actually take it. out of this region somehow? Is there. like another passage through that.

doesn't involve Okay, so he could just. stop the oil. >> He could stop the oil. Okay. >> But again, if he has control of Carg, the oil coming out of CarG, if you want. to have bring it to market, the only. ones that could do it would then be the. Americans. Now, the Iranians at that. point could still disrupt the strait. And there are other conversations, there. other military plans about how you might. be able to take coastal regions, raids. on the territory that would take out. more ballistic missile sites, go after. their drones. All of this takes more.

troops. All this takes more casualties, but would also give you more capacity to. eventually enforce a navigable straight. with escorts, which right now you can't. do. Right now, the Iranians can prevent. you from getting any ships out if they. wish to. I I think that the likelihood. that Trump is ultimately going to make. that order is well below 50%. I think. that the worst scenario is not the more. likely one because he understands how. unpopular it will be. But it does mean.

that he's going to have to sell a pretty. ugly pig with lipstick on it. >> Mhm. >> It means that because this was the. problem Trump has is he can't blame. anyone else for this. >> Yeah. >> He's the decider. Like he did it. I. mean, he's got his secretaries in the. cabinet. They're all saying, "Well, the. war, it's up to Trump. He's got the war. goals. It'll be over when he says it. It's all about Trump. He can blame NATO. for not want to join him. They're. joining him. It was his war of choice. and he's never been responsible directly. for an economic downturn. I mean, the.

the pandemic wasn't his fault, right? [clears throat] This is an economic. downturn with oil prices shooting up, gas is over four bucks a gallon, diesel's over five, inflation's ticking. up, food prices are going up, he's. wildly underwater on affordability, and. he is completely responsible for it. No. one else is responsible. And zooming out. even further, when we think about this. on a global scale, you've got Russia, who are at war with the Ukraine, that. seems to have just completely vanished. from the news cycle, by the way. >> It has not in in Europe, I promise you,

but in the United States, they're. talking a lot less about it. It's true. In Poland, this is a very big issue. In. the Baltics, it is a very big issue. >> And then you've got China who must be. laughing because it looks like the. United States are just sort of. selfharming themselves. >> Yep. And then you've got Europe, which. is the last power, who seem to now just. be sort of colluding with themselves and. getting together and saying, "Listen, you know, we're not going to help the US. anymore." I mean, we I grew up through. all these little conflicts and wars, and. the UK always seemed to come to the US.

Yeah. >> And for the first time ever, I'm. watching the UK go, "Actually, no, you. do this yourself. >> I'm going to meet with Macron in France, and we're going to we're going to uh. huddle and um go it alone.". >> What is that big picture? And which part. of that big picture is most pertinent to. talk about? Yeah, China is the most. pertinent because it's the most. powerful. Russia is the easiest to deal. with. Um, which is that for the. Russians, they don't have um much that. they produce that's manufactured. They. don't have very good technology, right?

They're they're relying more on the. Chinese. >> They've got oil there, haven't they? >> That they manufacture. They've got oil, they've got gas, they've got fertilizer, right? All the things with the prices. have just spiked through the roof. That's what the Russians have. That's. where their power is. And so they are. making so much more money. Their economy. was really getting squeezed with all the. sanctions. Now they're getting so much. more for everything that they actually. sell. And the Americans have reduced. sanctions like they did on Iran against. Russia because Trump cares about the.

markets as you say. So Russia's in a. better position for that reason. And. they're in a better position because all. the weapons the Americans have been. selling to the Europeans to get to. Ukraine, America now needs to get to the. Middle East. So the the Ukrainians are. going to have a harder time defending. their cities against Russian ballistic. missiles, against Russian drones. So. this clearly means that Putin will be. much much less interested in a. ceasefire, which let's face it, he. wasn't really very interested in to.

begin with. Trump at the beginning of. this term promised he would end this. war. He was hugely frustrated. He goes. to Israel to announce the Gaza. ceasefire. It's a big win. the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, their standing. ovation. He's like, you know, I thought. I was going to get the Russia war done. and I failed it. They haven't been able. to do that. I got this one instead. Like. Trump never brings up his own failures. But this really bothers him. So here. you've got yet more ability for the. Russians to say, "We're going to.

persist." And it makes it more likely. that Trump will eventually do a deal. with the Russians over the heads of the. Europeans. So that's that's the Russia. issue kind of in a little box. Now. Europe, we already talked about how. Europe is having its problems. economically. It doesn't have the. productivity. It doesn't have the. growth. >> What What did Europe do wrong in your. view? Like how did I'm a European, I. guess. I was born in Botswana in Africa, but I moved to the UK when I was young, so I guess I'm I'm British. Um,

>> what did the country do wrong? because. the country was so strong and powerful. and respected when I was younger and I. love Britain. But it appears on a global. stage that that perception has changed. The US are talking to us like a lap dog. >> Yeah. >> At Davos, I saw the talks. They're like, "You need to get your together and. be stronger and stop being so woke blah. blah blah blah.". >> Yeah. Well, first, the the Americans. talking to the Europeans that way has a. lot more to do with the change in. administration. Okay. I don't think any. other Democratic or Republican president.

would do what Trump is doing to his. closest allies. I think that's more. unique. But but it is certainly true. that over the last 30 years, there have. been two really big geopolitical shifts. Right? The United States has shifted its. orientation, but not geopolitical power. But in terms of power shift, you've got. the rise of China and the global south, India in particular after China, but. China is the biggest piece of that. And. then you have the decline of American.

allies. Europe, Canada, Japan, South Korea. These are countries most of which are. contracting demographically, right? They're countries most of which that. have much flatter growth and much more. reduced productivity than the United. States. They've not been investing in. their own defense. They've not been. investing in their own technology. So. what you see is an asymmetry. At the. same time that the Americans are saying. we're not interested in the rest of the.

world. We don't want to do all this. stuff. Want don't want to fight the. wars. Don't want free trade. You're also. seeing a reality where those countries. don't bring as much to the table in a. conversation with the United States. So. the the so-called draggy plan, the. 800page plan by the former central bank. head in Europe, the ECB, Mario Draghy, they called him Super Mario. He had this. competitiveness report that all of these. things that the Europeans needed to do. and he would say the Brits as well to to. address that to build entrepreneurship.

to spend in ways that would actually. bring a return long-term to like invest. in new technologies to reduce red tape. The plan is there. But unlike the United. States, unlike China, Europe is not a. country. Europe is 27 countries in the. EU and the United Kingdom which decided. for Brexit. It's a lot harder when you. don't have scale. It's just harder. And. when you have elections every, you know,

sort of couple every few years, it's. just more challenging. You can't do the. sort of stuff that the UAE or the Saudis. or the Singaporeans or the Chinese can. do at scale long term. So, as a. consequence, what did Europe do wrong? Europe focused, Europe believed that the. world after the wall came down in 1989, after the Soviet Union collapsed in. 1991, they believed that the world was. just going to be peaceful, that everyone. was going to have a system like the. Europeans did. So, they didn't need to. invest in invest in defense. And it was.

okay if they didn't invest in lots of. technology because they had friends that. they could work with and maybe their. growth wouldn't be as big, but their. quality of life would be so high. And. they were completely wrong. China did. not. They got wealthier, but they didn't. suddenly align with the United States. and Europe. China didn't become a free. market economy. China didn't become a. democracy. China is a consolidated. dictatorship under Xihinping with no. term limits and with control of the. economy, state control of the economy.

And that that's a not an easy. environment for the Europeans to be. comfortable being non-competitive. >> A lot of this come down to energy and. productivity. >> The cost of energy, >> the cost of energy. So a lot of these. countries decided to carry on drilling. oil and pursuing nuclear and a lot of. the European countries decided to go for. net zero where they tried to focus more. on sort of sustainable energy sources. >> whereas China didn't seem to give a. quite frankly the US didn't really seem. to care much um and then also on this.

point of entrepreneurship and innovation. these the US and China have both really. aggressively pursued entrepreneurship. and innovation and new technologies. whereas one could make the case that the. European environment has been less. friendly ly to new technologies and. innovation. >> So the the Chinese, you said the Chinese. didn't really give a Not true. The. Chinese have invested in everything. So. the Chinese know that they still need. lots of dirty coal in order to power um. their industry, but they also have. invested like nobody else in green.

technologies at scale, >> solar and things like that. >> Solar and wind and their their car. companies are the electric vehicle. leaders in the world. and batteries that. are the best batteries, the most. efficient batteries at scale in the. world and all of the the the materials, the raw materials that go into producing. those. The Chinese have invested in this. for decades now. And nuclear, right? While the while the Europeans have, with. the exception of France, France is, you. know, has heavy nuclear and that's. helped them in this crisis, most of the.

Europeans have turned away from nuclear, the Europeans have not done an allforall. approach. The Europeans have done a. let's lean into green but let's make. other technologies more challenging. including nuclear which should be seen. as a green technology. So yeah there's. no question that that has inhibited. growth in Europe. The United States has. been on again off again. You've got one. administration that's leaning into. green, the next one that's not when. America should be doing America today is. the world's leading oil producer by a.

long margin and fracking natural gas as. well by a long margin doing incredible. work there. Yet the United States is. actively undermining the ability to also. produce clean technologies for energy. Texas produces more sustainable energy. than any other state in the United. States. Red Texas. So I mean it's not. like this is these energy technologies. are not Republican or Democrat. They are. at scale becoming cheaper. You need all.

of them. And so the Europeans made a. mistake in not recognizing that you need. everything. >> Everybody says that the United States is. the world's leading superpower and that. has been the case. You know hard to. argue against that for a long time. Is. that set to change? Is China set to. become the world's leading superpower? not soon. Um but the trae the present trajectory. if it continues. clearly would challenge America's.

dominant position clearly. I mean the US. has the dollar is the global reserve. currency right now. Nothing else is. close. And transacting in the dollar is. a huge advantage for the Americans who. can continue to print money with. reckless abandon and run massive. deficits and have lower interest rates. as a consequence. China does not have a. convertible currency. They don't have. rule of law. If they opened their. currency to become convertible, there'd. be massive capital flight and political.

instability. That's what they worry. about. So, they don't compete with the. US there. China's military is still a. fraction of the capabilities of the US. They're watching what's happening in. Venezuela, in Iran. They don't have that. capacity. They're not close. They're. building their nuclear weapons out. They're building their conventional. weapons out. They have never fought a. naval war. They have It's decades since. they fought a ground war. U they're not. capable of doing these things. >> So, is there any concern with China? >> Yes. >> What is that concern? The concern with. China is that the most the world.

changing new technologies out there, the. Chinese are investing at scale and the. Chinese are now either at parody or. ahead of the Americans and everyone else. by a long margin in many of the core. technologies that matter most in the. world. >> And what does that potentially mean that. is worth paying attention to? Why does. that matter? >> It means that they can set the rules. They can set the standards. They can. sell the products that you need them. that if they determine that they're. going to shut you off, you're dead, right? I mean, think about what. happened. The Europeans were so.

dependent on Russia for gas and for oil. And the Russians invade Ukraine, they. want to shut it down, and it destroys. the European economy. The Americans are. doing just fine. The Americans are. building and get so many of their. semiconductors from TSMC in Taiwan. I'm. sure you've talked about that before in. your show. Well, what happens if China. decides that they want to cut that off? If they have that capacity, the. Americans are really screwed. So you. don't want to be in a position where one. country, an adversarial country that you.

don't trust, have a good relationship. with suddenly produces all this stuff. that you desperately need or your. economy will fall apart. And yet that is. the the the the trajectory where. president if China if China had. elections coming up in November, I'd be. worried, right? Because, you know, you. can just imagine a situation where the. Chinese being more short-term would say, "Well, look, the Americans are. distracted with Iran and the Europeans. are distracted with Ukraine. Now is our. time for Taiwan because we really want.

to get like all that support. So, let's. jin it up." Chinese aren't doing short-. term at all. They're doing long-term. The Chinese are thinking for 10 years. down the road, 20 years down the road, and they're investing that way. They're. taking very little risk. They're making. no regret moves to set themselves up. long term while the Americans are doing. all this short-term stuff, all this. electoral cycle stuff. That's the worry. If the the Americans the biggest danger. to the United States, not China, it's. America. It's America getting in its own. way and not investing in having the best.

products, the most competitiveness, the. most attractive place to study, the most. attractive place to live, the most. attractive place to work. This has had. probably the single biggest impact on my. office. Of all the products that I've. tried that have given me productivity. gains or cognitive boosts, I would say. that exogenous ketones are in the top. three most pivotal things that have. given me massive productivity gain. It's. some Stanford graduates that have been. able to basically bottle up the effect.

you get from being in a ketogenic diet. in a small shot that you can take that. makes you feel incredibly focused and. gives your brain an incredible source of. energy. And the clinical studies that. have been done on exogenous ketones have. absolutely blown my mind. I reached out. to them. I became a coiner in the. company. I became an investor in the. company. And so it's with great pride. that I can tell you that this exists. If. you haven't tried these shots, go to. ketone.com/stephven. for 30% off your subscription order, and. you'll also get a free gift with your. second shipment. I still buy my ketone.

shots predominantly online. But. thankfully, I can now grab them at. Target whenever I drive past them here. in the United States as well, because. we're now stocked in Target, where your. first shot is completely free. I'm 100%. more productive using this app despite. spending 50% less time typing. And that. might confuse you, but let me explain, which is exactly why I invested in. Whisper Flow. They're also one of our. sponsors on this podcast. Whisper Flow. turns your speech into text, so you can. send it in any app or device at any.

time. And I promise you, it doesn't seem. to ever make mistakes. This is the most. accurate voice dictation I have ever. used after a decade of trying to get one. to work. Not only does it save me a ton. of time, it also corrects your speech if. you change your mind mid-sentence before. turning it into text on the device. I. love it and I know my team loves it too. because when I posted it in our Slack. channel asking if anybody wanted a pro. version, half the office said yes and. they had it within an hour which tells. me everything. This is the tool you and. your team need to speed yourselves up. and to capture those important ideas so.

that they don't disappear. Head over to. whisperflow.ai/stephven. to download it now. That's wispr. lw.ai/stephven. you um did a TED talk two years ago in. June. It was published in June 14th, 2023 and it's done tens of millions of. views on YouTube. It is titled the next. global superpower is not who you think. Yeah. >> And I was looking at the comment section.

earlier and the some of the top comments. are you called it a year ago and you. were 100% right. There's another one. here saying hello writing to you from a. year in the future. I have some bad news. about 2025. You were right. What were you right. about? >> I was I guess what they're saying I this. you and I have been talking about the US. and China and traditional geopolitics. What I was saying is that increasingly. the world is moving beyond geopolitics. and that the most important new global.

leaders aren't countries, they're. technology companies that are writing. their own rules. I was looking how the. Russian invasion of Ukraine that that. war started not on the 24th of February. but the 23rd of February when Microsoft. found out about all of the cyber strikes. that were hitting Ukraine and made the. US government and the Ukrainian. government aware of it. I look at Elon. Musk and providing Starlink. If it. wasn't for that, I'm not sure that the. Ukrainian government was going to be. able to fight these guys on the ground.

They wouldn't have been able to. communicate. Silinski might be gone. These are companies. The US government. at that point was scared about sending. all the military support, but the. companies were making a big difference. Now I see that these new AI tools like. we [clears throat] saw with Anthropic. and Mythos. >> For anyone that doesn't know, Anthropic. released a new AI model, which they say. is so capable that it presents the world. with a really fundamental security risk. to all of our technology. They say in.

their report that in testing this new. model, this new um type of AI could find. security vulnerabilities in lots of. different applications and software. applications that we use. So essentially. it posed a cyber security risk. It could. hack. >> a lot of banks and. >> critical infrastructure, your power. grid, water systems, anything with. software. and and not just like the. things that a hacker could get to, but. every bug that could be exploited. So,

it's so powerful that they couldn't. release it because it would have been an. immediate systemic risk to the global. economy and our security. >> And do you believe them? I say this. because I heard some people debating. whether this was marketing talk for them. as a company to say, "Look, look how. powerful we are that we're not going to. release this model because it's it's. going to cause that much harm." or do. you think they are being responsible? >> It is inconceivable to me that a company. that is this capable of raising money.

and this capable of talking to the. markets is not going to have a. communication strategy that is fully. aligned with that. >> So of course there's marketing here, >> but this was a real risk. [clears throat] When you have Jerome. Powell, the chief of the Fed, and Scott. Bessent, the Secretary of Treasury, looking at this and immediately calling. an urgent meeting of all the CEOs of the. banks, saying, "We have to deploy this. internally." And you have JP Morgan,

Jamie Diamond, is by far the best at. cyber security in terms of the big banks. and the big US institutions and. considers this a five alarm fire. I I. take this very seriously. Mhm. >> I [clears throat] think this is actually. a big deal that also happens to be. useful for anthropics marketing, not. least because Anthropic had just been in. a big fight with the defense department. and the US defense department saying we. don't want these anthropic guys because. like they're not they're woke, right? I. mean, they don't they refuse to let us.

use and deploy their AI in our targeting. or our surveillance. So, we're going to. take them out of our system. Well, turns. out you can't afford to take these guys. completely out of your system because. what they're doing is too important for. American national security. So, the. timing is convenient from that. perspective. But this risk is real and. it's real because it needs to be. deployed immediately to find these bugs. and to patch them before other people. have those tools because other people. will have these tools in very short.

order. [snorts]. >> And so on the scale of risks that we. have in front of us here, critical, severe, >> yep, also severe. Okay, >> again would be critical if we were. talking about two years out because. we're talking about this year and it's. already April. It just happened. I would. say severe, but my god, underappreciated. because the amount of attention this. gets on headlines. >> compared to Iran or Venezuela compared. to China is still tiny. >> And is that because of unemployment. because AI is going to take our jobs or. is it something else? Is it the nuclear?

What is it? No, I mean if if what I just. mentioned with anthropic, like if. suddenly your systems are hackable by. anyone that has access to this tool, your markets are going to go down. Your. banks aren't going to work. Your data is. going to be stolen. You know, your your. imagine if the Russians have that. capacity, what they would do with it. If. the Iranians today had that capacity, what they would do with it, they will. the these AI tools are are becoming. available to anyone with a laptop or a.

cell phone. So I mean suddenly in the. same way that the war in Russia Ukraine, Russia is much bigger than Ukraine and. yet in the last 3 months Ukraine has. actually taken territory back from. Russia. How is that possible? Technology. drones, right? They have become the most. capable drone producer in the world at. scale. so much that when the Iranians. were attacked by the United States and. they counter hit, what did the Americans. do? They called Zalinski, remember the. guy that didn't say thank you in the. White House, and they said, "Could we.

have your help with your drone. technologies in figuring out how we. combat Iran for our Gulf allies?" So. technology is changing the world so. fast, and it turns out that the biggest. way it's changing our security and the. economy is AI. on this point of AI. I. actually was watching a video this. morning before you arrived, which I I. thought I'd show you because um it's. quite it's quite dystopian, but what. you'll see in this video is true and. it's happening around the world and I. don't think anybody has any ideas. This.

is the video. I'll play it for those of. you that are looking at the screen at. the moment. Can you tell what's going on. in this video. from watching it? It looks to me um like uh they're uh the. work that they are doing is being uh. monitored real time. Um presumably by. some external source. Um you're going to. suggest to me that the external source. that's monitoring them is not a human. being but is artificial intelligence.

>> Yes. Kind of. What's happening is a. company has paid these Indian workers to. wear cameras on their heads. >> to watch their hands. >> Yeah. >> To train the AI so that the AI can do. that job in the future. >> to remove the workers from those jobs. >> Yes. >> Yeah. >> So it's kind of like sitting on the. branch of a tree and you yourself. cutting the There's this meme I'll throw. up on the screen. It's of a guy sat on. the branch of a tree and he's cutting. the branch himself. And what you're. seeing here is because the AI companies.

and the robotics companies need real. world data of these jobs being done, they're now asking the workers in the. factories to record themselves doing it. so that they can replace them. >> Yeah. [clears throat]. [laughter]. >> It's um I laugh because it's slightly. terrifying. It's slightly terrifying and. yet it's also slightly empowering. depending on what we decide to do with. the wealth that comes from this because. let's face it, most human beings do not. want that work to be what.

self-actualizes them. >> What kind of political system do you. need or social system do you need in. such a world where a lot of the work. that we do today is being done by these. intelligent machines and a huge amount. of people don't have work? I was saying. to you before we started recording, a. friend of mine called me the other day. and he had had a conversation with one. of the most successful technologists in. the world that everybody knows and he. said next year is the year where the. unemployment because of AI really will. take hold and people are going to get. increasingly.

annoyed. They also said that they think. the Democrats, even though I think this. person might be Republican, they think. the Democrats are going to win the. election because the impact of AI is. going to be so severe next year in terms. of employ unemployment that people are. going to associate the Republicans with. being the pro AAI party. And I saw. another report last week saying that AI. is now less popular than ICE in the. United States. And just as a podcaster. who has conversations about this, I know. people are are not happy. I know they're. not happy. I see it in the comment. section in part because we don't see it.

flowing down and making people's lives. better. We see major corporations. getting richer. >> And so the funny thing that video you. showed me, most people in the global. south are very excited, enthusiastic. about AI because they think it's going. to give them tools to improve their. human capital, to improve their. opportunities. China, the Chinese are. very excited about AI because they think. that it's going to make their lives. better. Mhm. >> The Americans, the Europeans are not.

They worry that this is actually going. to undermine their jobs, particularly. their white collar jobs, [clears throat]. >> uh their knowledge worker jobs. And and. what I think is going to happen. politically, I I I don't agree that. we're going to see massive unemployment. in the US next year. I think there's. going to be much more friction. And most. CEOs don't want to get rid of a lot of. their workers unless they have to. So. unless there's a major economic downturn. that gives them that excuse, I think. it's going to take a lot longer. And I. also think that social mobilization long.

shoreman in the United States like said. no AI, you're going to protect our jobs. And they were willing to actually. demonstrate. They mobilized and it kept. AI out. There'll be a lot of like, you. know, resistance that will slow this. process down. But what I do think is. going to happen, I think you'll see it. politically. I was talking to uh someone. I know um reasonably well uh a senator, US senator who was saying uh can't talk. right now and prochecknology person pro. business person centrist right someone.

you and I would recognize as such say I. can't talk about data centers I've never. seen people my constituents so upset. about an issue as they do about data. centers. >> AI data centers. >> AI they said that no jobs energy prices. going up water prices going up. Zoning. looks horrible in their neighborhoods. They're growing like topsy. Huge amount. of investment. Everyone hates these. things. I I mean Trump in the United. States won on the back of a lot of men.

who many of whom had good jobs and were. making good money, but they didn't. necessarily have advanced degrees. >> And they felt like the world was moving. away from them. They saw robotics and. automation on their factory lines. They. saw free trade and jobs going to much. poorer, much, you know, less expensive. labor around the world, China. especially, but India, other countries. They said they saw immigrants coming in, but you're not taking care of me and my. family, so why am I letting that happen? You see this in Europe, too. This is the. Nigel Farage movement. Like lots of. stuff, right? They voted Trump in not.

once, but twice. Despite everything he. is, everything he stands for, they voted. for. We haven't seen women with advanced. degrees, urban and suburban, worried. about their jobs and worried about their. kids. And that wave of populism is. coming absolutely in 2028. And that is. AI is a very big piece of that. AI, data. centers, and the rest. So in that. regard, I agree that there's going to be. a real political wave here. And I don't.

yet know who the political figures are. that are going to respond to that. I I. don't think that person today exists in. the political spectrum. I haven't seen. that person. >> It appears that the least popular job or. least popular people in society at the. moment are AI CEOs. I mean, you're. probably seeing what um what's going on. >> We saw what Sam Alman just had a you. know, the the Molotov cocktail that was. actually thrown at his uh. >> and then yesterday again they said. someone shot at his house yesterday. Yeah. >> Yesterday night again.

>> Yeah. >> Which obviously nobody should support. violence of this type. My god, no. No, but it's not surprising. And we also had. the CEO of United Healthcare gunned. down, you know, a year ago, just uh a. few blocks from where you and I are. having this conversation right now. There is general anger at the elite. And. it's true that the wealthiest people in. the United States right now happen to be. those tech owners. Is there a solution. here where the technology which presents. us with tremendous potential upsides can.

be be thrive and be successful and make. our lives better but also the average. person the working-class people can also. capitalize and benefit from this. technology? >> Of course there is. >> What does that look like? >> Well, I mean first of all these. technologies are already doing. extraordinary things in improving. productivity and in reducing waste. I. mean, recycling doesn't work very well, but with AI, you can recycle in a way. that would allow you to actually get. that trash product back into a.

productive format. Who wouldn't want the. ability to make micro adjustments in um. the way that an airplane is navigating. real time because of AI that reduces. fuel consumption by 10%. Or improve. agricultural use. In Ethiopia, you've. got over a hundred million people and. they don't know what to plant and where. and when. Suddenly, you optimize for. that. They have cheaper food. Like the. these are amazing things. Every day I.

see uses for these technologies in. companies around the world that blow my. mind. But I also see and again I focus. on politics. And if we blow ourselves. up, it's not going to be because of. technology. If we blow ourselves up, it's going to be because of people and. politics. What do you mean by that? >> That the system is deploying these. technologies in inhumane ways. It's. allowing the benefits of the. opportunities to be captured by a small. number of individuals, a small number of.

companies that write their own rules and. don't care about people that are getting. angry. So when you ask, violence is the. wrong thing. But if you're seeing that. people are getting so angry that they're. starting to do things that they see the. only way that they think that they can. respond is outside of the legal. framework. It's not by voting for. somebody new, but it's by mass action or. even violent action. Then the politics. are really broken. >> So, do we need like universal basic. income or something? or does there need.

to be an AI tax or. >> I don't think that you go from everybody. has a full-time job or aspires to a. full-time job to universal basic income. in a year. I I I don't think that. happens. But I could easily see pilot. programs that say instead of a five-day. work week in the following areas that we. think are going to be disrupted, it's. going to be a 4-day work week or 3-day. work week. And we're going to pay you. the same amount of money, but that. additional day every week is going to be. on AI training that will allow you to.

have a job. either be more effective in. your existing job because the only the. people that know how to deploy these. tools are going to have a job another. three or five years or will allow you to. transition. But you've got to start. spending the money on that now. And this. that that guy that you had that. conversation with, I've been watching. him publicly. He's not part of the. solution. He's saying I think the. Democrats are going to win. Oh well, I'll be fine. I'm still worth a lot of. money, but I'm not going to do anything.

to actually help facilitate this. Like. if you if the people that are most. capable of being aware of these. challenges and of addressing them are. instead all in winner take all mode, then obviously we're going to have a. breakdown in society. It's a tricky situation, isn't it? Because we've seen what happens when. governments get involved in technology. sometimes, you know, even in the UK for.

and the European Union. Bloody hell. I. remember speaking to I don't know if I. have permission to say his name either, but he is the CTO of one of the biggest. technology companies in the world and he. was explaining to me that they can't. release their features. This particular. piece of hardware, we can't even release. it in Europe because the European Union. have so much regulation. >> Yeah. >> That they've actually created a bunch of. issues for us as companies. One of them. was [clears throat] that in this. particular device, the European Union. demand that the battery can be taken out. and put back in again. And what this.

actually means, he was explaining to me, is that we're going to have to buy loads. of batteries and keep them on the shelf. and then they're going to go bad and. actually it's going to be worse for the. environment, but also it means that the. devices are no longer waterproof. So. more devices are going to break, which. is even worse for the environment. And. this overregulation that's. >> which means that the Europeans are. nowhere in terms of competitive. >> They know they're not competitive. >> So he and you know what he said to me? He goes, um, and I don't think what the. Europeans don't realize is we just don't. need their market anymore. He said. Brazil's coming online and all these. other big markets are coming online as.

buyers. So we just can decide just to. not sell to to Europe. >> So there are three systems out there, right? Broadly speaking, one system, the. United States system, most power in the. hands of the private sector so much so. that they're able to capture the. regulatory process, write their own. regulations. That turns out that system. drives an enormous amount of growth and. wealth. The problem is that lots of. average Americans do not benefit from. it. Mhm. >> Because nobody is looking out for them. Then they get angry and then they lash.

out, right? The Chinese system where the. state actually captures the private. sector and they say what the private. sector can and can't do. And frequently. they own the private sector, state-owned. enterprises, right? And that system. drives an enormous amount of growth over. the long term, but the people have no. say over what is and what is not. allowed. And that creates a lot of. dissent and this lying flat. we're not a. part of the system and the solution. Then you have the Europeans and the. European system is very oriented towards.

we want to make sure that the social. contract works for the citizens. We're. very interested in like having all of. the benefits that people need, but we. can't afford them because our system is. so heavily regulated and so anti-. entrepreneurial that we don't drive the. growth that would be necessary to keep. paying for the people. Right? So. obviously each of these systems have. challenges but the problem comes not in. the nature of the system but in when. they become extreme. Americans today.

want a new deal whatever that new deal. looks like. And Trump won because of. that. He won because he positioned. himself as the outsider that would make. sure those things happen. Right? He was. the guy that was going to end the wars. He was the guy that was going to invest. in the United States. America first, not. these other countries first. People like. that. Take care of your people. That's. what they want. People are voting for. very simple things. They want to be. taken care of. They want to have.

opportunities for themselves and their. families and their communities. They. don't want to feel despair. That's what. the American dream was all about. That's. why my grandparents came here. My. grandma, Armenian, you know, fled her. family fled the genocide. She came on. Ellis Island. That's why I'm here. I. came and I started a company in a land. that had great opportunity. But most. Americans don't believe that applies to. them anymore. And you asking me all. these questions about AI. The answer is. very simple. Give these people the. opportunity to create a dream for. themselves and their families in their.

own countries. If they don't have that, they will eventually revolt against you. >> Is that what history tells us happens. next in such a situation where the. people feel more and more powerless and. they feel like they have less and less. opportunity? >> It doesn't happen everywhere. I mean, let's face it. We've got 25 million. people in North Korea that have been, you know, ruled by, you know, a cult. figure who they essentially worship for. decades now. So, history doesn't. necessarily tell us that it the story. always goes well. But in a democracy,

>> in a democracy, sometimes democracies go. bad. But what we see frequently is push. back against people that are. kleptocratic, but it's people that put. themselves above the system. And we've. seen that in many cases in many. democracies all over the world. 70% of. people who add something to their online. cart never actually buy it. And that. number is based on over 10 years of. research. But what I think is even more. interesting is what the Bayard Institute.

discovered. They're a private research. company that ran a study which found the. average e-commerce store can increase. its conversion rate by 35% just by. making its checkout easier. Not better. marketing or better products, but by. delivering a smoother checkout. experience. So, if you're looking for an. easy way to make your checkout process. smoother, I want you to think about. moving your business onto Shopify. It's. the platform we use to sell the 1%. diaries and the conversation cards. because it's so simple and smart to use. It puts all of our inventory, payments, and analytics in one place and has so.

many AI tools to help us get up and. running straight away. Not to mention. that it grows with you regardless of the. stage that your business is at. So, if. you're ready to fix your checkout. process, sign up for your $1 per month. trial at shopify.com/bartlet. That's shopify.com/bartlet. And don't tell anybody. We have finally caved in. So many of you. have asked us if we could bundle the. conversation cards with the 1% diary. For those of you that don't know, every. single time a guest sits here with me in.

the chair, they leave a question in the. diary of a CEO and then I ask that. question to the next guest. We don't. release those questions in any. environment other than on these. incredible conversation cards. These. have become a fantastic tool for people. in relationships, people in teams, in. big corporations, and also family. members to connect with each other. With. that, we also have the 1% diary, which. is this incredible tool to change habits. in your life. So many of you have asked. if it was possible to buy both at the. same time, especially people in big. companies. So, what we've done is we've.

bundled them together and you can buy. both at the same time. And if you want. to drive connection and instill habit. change in your company, head to the. diary.com to inquire and our team will. be in touch. I think the part that I still have this. big question mark in my head about is. what you do about that. I was reading. this morning that Jeff Bezos is. investing or raising money raising a. hundred billion dollars for I think it's. called Project Prometheus which is his. own AI company. Um you've got Elon with. XAI, you've got Anthropic, you got.

Dermis at Google and Sundar, you've got. OpenAI, Sam Alman, you've got all these. big tech CEOs that are trying to sort of. raise super intelligence like like it's. a child. >> Yeah. And if they are to be successful, one would one would assert that. intelligence itself is the most powerful. commod like currency or commodity that. there isn't on planet earth. So those. that you wield it. >> and commodity is right because Alman. talks about you're going to need to pay. for intelligence the way you pay for. water. >> Yeah. >> Or pay for G and that that average. American hears that and goes what what.

I'm going to have to pay for. intelligence. >> Yeah. >> That that feels like something we have. free will over. Suddenly you don't. Suddenly a company has control over. that. You know, if you had a wand and. you could wave the wand and solve this. techno oligarchy. Yeah. >> What would you do? >> I want three things. I want three types. of governance. >> First, I I want to make sure um that the. United States and China start to have AI. arms control conversations. When we were.

fighting the Soviets, there were no arms. control discussions until after 1962. Cuban Missile Crisis. We almost blew up. the entire world. That was super. dangerous with much much lower levels of. technology. And then after that we said, "Oh, maybe we should like have a have a. hotline between the two leaders. Oh, maybe we should have deconliction. Maybe. we should not invest in certain areas. Maybe we shouldn't try to develop Star. Wars defense, for example. Maybe we. should have some arms control agreements. that limit, you know, what we do so that. it's safer." We desperately need that.

between the Americans and the Chinese. That's number one. Number one. Second. thing we need the financial markets. We. all need the financial markets, right? We we need we need them systemically. When there's a financial crisis, the. whole world comes together to get out of. the financial crisis. And it doesn't. matter if you're capitalist or. communist, the People's Bank of China, the European Central Bank, the Bank of. England, the Fed, they all work together. because they are first and foremost. technocrats who understand that we need. the markets to function. You need.

something like that for AI. in an AI. stability board so that whenever there. is a model that creates a danger to us. globally like Anthropic just did last. week that model is dangerous to all of. us globally because any software with a. potential bug in it is findable by that. model and it can be exploited that's. incredibly dangerous weapon so we don't. want everyone to have that so you need. at scale because everyone's going to. develop this stuff you need an AI.

stability board like the financial. stability board that is governed by. technocrats, by people that have an. independent capacity to identify threats. to the systemic environment, the AI. environment that we need to work that. can communicate that to the people that. have power and that can immediately. attack and address it. Right? That's the. second thing we need. We don't have that. yet. The third thing we need is we have. to have an ability to fund AI for people.

that otherwise would not be able to take. advantage of it. We've got half of. Africa that doesn't have electricity. The the gap between people with. electricity and people that don't have. electricity is going to be a hell of a. lot worse when it's AI. It's going to be. a gap between people that act like. empowered human beings, hybrid. individuals that have AI as a principal. relationship and can deploy that. knowledge and people that we won't even. treat as human beings. >> like a different species almost. >> like a different species. That's.

unacceptable. We can't allow humanity to. develop that way. So, we have to spend. the money to ensure that everyone has. access. We aren't close to that. What. about the domestic economy here in the. United States or in I know the UK or any. of these countries that are developing. the technology. >> Same as the last point. It's the exact. same. >> Okay. So, you've got to also fund. >> Yeah. It can't just be global. I mean, the Americans will not care about this. if this is like for subsaharan Africa. They'll whatever, right? It's them. I'm. saying this is something that is. necessary for humanity. But when I. looked at our our teas going around the.

moon, we're looking down. I don't see. borders. I see 8 billion people. I mean, if anyone that that came down that. wasn't being shot up from the earth and. came down, anyone that came down to the. earth would look at us and they say, "Oh, look at this. 8 billion people, they don't see borders, right?" And and. the first thing they would learn if they. learned how we actually operate with our. 8 billion people is, "Wow, you guys, given the technology you're developing, you have nowhere near adequate. governance for your 8 billion people. you guys are all divided into and all of.

these short-term decisions you're making. that are so inefficient and you are. you're going to destroy yourselves. That's what they'd say. That's what they. say. And and and I say that as a person. who is a citizen of the country that. created the United Nations because we. understood the last time we almost. destroyed ourselves in a world war. We. can't do that anymore. So we need more. global governance. We need more forums. that bring everyone together, not that. divide us apart. We're not heading in. that direction right now. >> We are not heading in that direction. right now. >> Yes.

>> I mean, we're certainly heading in the. opposite direction in every sense of the. word. >> In the opposite direction in most senses. of the word, but technologically, one. could imagine that we're developing the. tools that will help us move in that. direction if we wish to. >> There is another version of the future, isn't there? Uh sometimes I question. whether it's possible because the human. condition is so. you know contaminated with all of these. um these sort of darker. parts of ourselves. But sometimes I. wonder if there is like a version of the.

future which is utopia. >> I don't see how there isn't. I mean I. don't I don't see how you allow human. beings to create the kind of tools that. we have and not have the ability to use. them for good. The big stories of the. world over the past 50 years, my. lifetime, those big stories have been. about growth. Those big stories have. been about how human beings are living. for longer with better education and. better healthcare and more wealth and. less starvation and less poverty. Those.

have been the big stories of the last 50. years. Now, you can say maybe it's a. blip, but actually when you look at. humans history on the planet, it's. generally moved towards more capacity. We've just had a couple of really bad. episodes. >> and information spreads so quickly that. we hear about these bad episodes in a. way that we wouldn't have otherwise. It. feels. >> the algorithm serving me up what's going. on 10,000 miles that way. >> And I worry the most about that. I worry. the most about people getting. programmed. I'm not worried about.

artificial general intelligence. I'm. worried about human beings becoming more. computer-like. When you spend all of. your time on your smartphone, that is a. computer programming a human being. And. we're acting more like the computer when. we know that we're not like that. We we. know that we're more like who we are. over the last few hours. >> We're sitting here. We're having a. conversation with each other. I've never. met you before. We know a bit about each. other, but we're having a real. conversation. That's a humane. conversation. As soon as it gets. intermediated by algorithms, as soon as.

you get programmed into a lane, we. become much more much more inhuman. And. I I worry that's why I hate prediction. markets. The idea that we're going to. instead of looking at our political. institutions as things that we built. that serve us, instead we create a. casino out of them, and we only care. about whether we're in or out of the. money. That that human beings don't. operate that way. Companies that want to. line their pockets make us work that. way. We're we're being forced away from. being our better selves. We need.

regulations and governance models and. companies that help us be more of our. better selves. >> What's interesting is as a podcaster, you sit in this really interesting. position where I don't have like a boss. or an overlord telling me who I can. interview and who I can't. And my team. know me so well now that they would. never even mention. the implications of me interviewing. someone to me. And when I say that is. like they would never come to me and. say, "Stephen, you should you should. interview Ian, but just so you know, this is his politics and if you if you.

interview him, these people might scream. at you." They know me so well that they. would never even mention it. So I say. this to say that I have the opportunity. to be like truly independent and that. means that you know last week we had. Ivanka Trump on had Michelle Obama. Michelle Obama on then Kamala Harris and. Gavin Newsome and I've interviewed Men. Dani and. it's funny when you sit in this position. and you have you look at your you know. the list of people that want to come on. the show and that you've asked you know. can we reach out to these people and you. see every name and yet you know that.

this having a conversation because of. the algorithms. with someone that half my audience don't. agree with is going to cause like real. anger. Real anger. But like it's what. what I also find to be really funny is. like when I meet these people in real. life that half my audience hates. >> for some reason. >> you connect with them. >> I can see like a lot of the time they. have a disagreement about the path but. they all agree on the destination. >> Well, no one's a villain of their own. story. The one thing I would tweak of. what you just said, you said um because.

you're independent, you have the. opportunity, >> right, to to do what you want and to say. what you want and to interview whoever. you want, handle you. I think you have. the obligation. >> Yeah. >> In this environment, independence is a. responsibility because there are so many. people that are not in your position or. my position that aren't independent that. can be fired and they do not have the. same opportunity and and instead we. can't be angry at those people. But we. have to recognize no no we we are. fortunate enough to be independent and.

if you can't be fired we have an. obligation to be out there and above the. 50% of people that are going to hate you. for whatever it is. >> Can I ask you a question then? Do you. think I need to say something to the. audience on why this is so important? >> Of course you do. I think I think you do. that [clears throat] through your. conversations but I think being mindful. of it is important. >> I mean it's it's about being authentic. to who you are. I mean, you and I may. not have exactly the same values. We may. not have the same priorities, but but if. you're being honest about yourself, with.

your audience, about what matters, you're doing that through your podcast, your conversation. It's about never. selling out when you do that. >> It's about never pulling back and. saying, "Oh, no, that that might. irritate someone, so I'm not going to. say it." That's not who you are. You. can't do that. >> Yeah. >> Right. Because again, that's that's what. mainstream media does, and that's why. they're in trouble. >> I I I completely agree. And I think it's. funny because sometimes I think that the. audience might not understand that. But. the reality is in the real world when I. go outside and I speak to people, they.

understand that and they appreciate. that. It's just sometimes I think vocal. minorities that that really don't want. to hear from someone that disagrees with. them at all. But I I just are they. really vocal minorities or are they. bots? Are they algorithmically created? When you and I are on the street and. people come up to us, it's over and it's. random. It's overwhelmingly friendly. >> Maybe, you know, I I think the digital. world is not really a human world. And. that's why it's so much more important.

to do more live, just get out there. Also, do more long form. The more that. we can do to resist the algorithm, the. better we'll be as a planet, the better. we'll be as a species. >> I'm so in love with the idea of like. talking to people you disagree with or. just have a difference of opinion with. I'm so in love by their I remember. reading a quote once that said if you. have the same opinion if you have the. same complete set of opinions as one. group of people those are not your. opinions and I find that to be really. really true because I can steal and take. ideas and opinions that I agree with.

from almost everybody that I speak to. And this is such a strange position to. take in an algorithmically driven world. where the echo chamber will un. unbelievably. reinforce and protect me if I just. choose a side. >> That's right. And the part of my life. that that resists this is that my view. is that if you hold the same opinions as. the world is changing, you will be. wrong. >> True. Yeah. >> And but the algorithm doesn't want you. to change your views. >> Is there any closing remarks that you. have for for the listeners based on the. journey we've been on? >> I mean, again, I know you're based um.

you're Brit. >> I live in Los Angeles as well. >> Yeah, I know. But but still, I mean, you. know, you got an accent and I mean, you. know, you're global. You four years old. You bought Batswana, right? that whole. story. Um, I mean, the fact is that. you've managed to build something. global. without promoting irresponsible lies and. hatred and dislike. And I don't I don't. think you're bad for people, right? And. we need more of that. Look, I mean, I I. I think about when I think about where.

power is coming from, it's not just tech. companies. It's also people outside of. established political force. When I was. a kid, I was here's what we're talking. about. I was in second grade, I think. Uh my my teacher's name was uh Miss. Criticico. She was she was Greek. And. she was asking us, we were talking about. um the elections and she was asking us. who wanted to be president and and she. was talking about what it meant to be. president. I remember raising my hand of. course and everyone's talking about.

think how cool it would be. And then all. of a sudden, Ian, why why why do would. you want to be president? And I looked. around and I realized that I was the. only person that had my hand up, which. did not make any sense to me at the. time. I would not have my hand up today. I thought when I grew up, I really. believed that like public service was. the ultimate expression of how you make. a difference. That is no longer true. But it's not because our system is so. broken, it's so bad. It's rather that we. have created all sorts of opportunities. for people to really make a difference.

globally outside of political. institutions. And I've devoted my life. to that uh professionally. And I think. it's incredibly important, right? And. maybe people don't agree with me uh all. the time. Obviously, that's fine. But. they do know that I really care about. what I'm doing and I'm trying to get. better over time. That's all we can do. Um and I don't think that has to be It. turns out I'll go through my life and. hopefully I'll have a long and healthy. life and I don't think I'll ever have. served in public office, but hopefully.

continue to have more and more impact in. a good way over time. >> Yeah. I remember I remember hearing um. Neil Degrass Tyson say something very. similar where he said the most powerful. people on planet earth are no longer the. elected. They are those that influence. the electorate because they end up going. to the polls and making that decision. and and so it is a huge amount of. responsibility in such a world for. people like yourself who I do think do a. public service and educating all of us. I mean look at all these books in front. of me. >> Um unbelievable how many books you've. written and how incredible they all are. >> I don't know how you found them all but.

they are out there. Yeah. Yeah. I'm. going to link all of them below and I. would ask my audience to take a look at. the variety of different I think this is. the most recent one. The power of the. most another one coming out next year. too. >> Yeah. >> What's the new book coming? >> Don't have a title yet. >> Oh, you don't have no. >> um The power of crisis, how three. threats and our response will change the. world. And in this book, you talk more. about AI as one of those threats as. well, but I'm going to link them all. below. And I highly recommend people go. and follow you both on your YouTube. channel where you make content. frequently about these issues as they're.

evolving. If you want to keep in touch. with Ian's perspective and also over on. your ex page, you've got over a million. followers over on X. Big audience over. there. >> We have a closing tradition on this. podcast when the last guest leaves a. question for the next guest, not knowing. who they're leaving it for. >> Okay. >> And the question left for you is I. cannot read this. Okay, here we go. >> When you are on your deathbed, how will. you describe your life? >> Unanticipated. >> Sounds like a a good life. Definitely. I. mean, you know, let's face it, the my.

optimism comes from the fact that we. have no idea what we did to deserve. being here. >> So, every day is kind of like it's a bit. of a gift, right? The more you can. remember that, the more I think the. better off we are. >> Ian, thank you. I really appreciate all. the nice you and you. Um, I've been. watching you for many, many, many, many. years. and uh whenever the world. descends into turmoil and I'm looking. for someone who can turn the lights on. for me. You're the person that I come to. typically on YouTube. I watch most of. your stuff on there, but I also follow. you on X and find your takes um. incredibly accessible and um.

demystifying, which is I think exactly. what we need more of at this time. So, you are doing a public service even. though you're not running a country. Um. you're helping people like me understand. all of this craziness and therefore um. hopefully live better lives and make. better decisions as to who we elect and. and how we think about the world and how. we treat one another. So, thank you for. doing that. It's it's a great service to. humanity. >> Well, it's very motivating to hear that, frankly, and uh I promise you I'll keep. doing my best side. >> Thank you. YouTube have this new crazy. algorithm where they know exactly what. video you would like to watch next based. on AI and all of your viewing behavior.

And the algorithm says that this video. is the perfect video for you. It's. different for everybody looking right. now. Check this video out and I bet you. you might love.