Financial Crash Expert: The 90-Day Collapse Timeline They Are Desperately Hiding.

So there are five scenarios in which the. war could end because Trump is stupid. enough to take on what Israel wanted to. do, which was destroy Iran, but they've. bitten off far more than they can chew. So scenario one is Iran destroys the. Gulf power infrastructure. I think. that's highly likely. And if that. happens, then Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Dubai, they'll become uninhabitable. And. then scenario two, Iran disables. Israel's nukes. I hope that happens, but. there's this one. And it scares the. out of me. Professor Steve, I have so. many questions. What is going on?

>> So, this war is threatening everybody on. the planet. And what Trump is doing at. the moment is a pump and dump scheme. He's trying to drive up the oil price. and exploiting it for his friends and. for his own wealth in the process. So, people are focusing upon the price of. this. But the really important point is. this, the straight of Ham. So, oil, fertilizer, helium all have to pass. through the straight of Ham. >> and Iran have blocked that gap. >> So, they can say you do or do not pass. depending on your country's attitude. towards our country. And that's quite. terrifying because 20 to 30% of our. fertilizer comes through at this point.

But if this is not available, the globe. has a famine. >> Do you think he will send ground troops. in? >> Yes, I do. But I'd hate to be one of. those troops because it's a suicide. mission. They've got underground. military units of weapons [music] and. troops, but we have no idea of the. scale. >> Trump keeps saying that the war has been. won. >> Yeah. >> What's going on there in your view? >> I think he's been fed propaganda to tell. him that he's winning the war by his. immediate advisers because you cannot. tell a person like that that they've. made a mistake. We'll talk about that as. well. But you developed a bit of a. reputation because you're very good at. predicting things. So, which of these.

five outcomes do you think is most. probable to happen? >> Oh god, >> this is super interesting to me. My team. given me this report to show me how many. of you that watch this show subscribe. and some of you have told us according. to this that you are unsubscribed from. the channel randomly. So, favor to ask. all of you, please could you check right. now if you've hit the subscribe button. if you are a regular viewer of the show. and you like what we do here. We're. approaching quite a significant landmark. on this show in terms of a subscriber. number. So, if there was one simple free. thing that you could do to help us, my.

team, everyone here to keep this show. free, to keep it improving year over. year and week over week, it is just to. hit that subscribe button and to double. check if you've hit it. Only thing I'll. ever ask of you, do we have a deal? If. you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll make sure every single week, every. single month, we fight harder and harder. and harder and harder to bring you the. guests and conversations that you want. to hear. I've stayed true to that. promise since the very beginning of the. D ofio and I will not let you down. Please help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get on with the show. [music].

[music]. >> Professor Steven, who who are you? If. you had to sort of distill it down to. three areas of specialism, what would. those be? history of economic thought, financial instability, so the what. causes volatility in the in the economy. and the dynamics of money and ironically. it makes me a minority in economics. because most economists ignore money. completely. >> It's a strange thing to you.

>> It's ridiculous but it's true. >> We'll talk about that as well today. I. really want to focus on what's going on. in the world right now because there's. so many questions. It's it's all quite. confusing. >> extremely. >> and understanding the layers of. motivation that you know Trump has, Iran. have, Israel have is um it's a difficult. jigsaw puzzle to put together. >> I guess the the question that I keep. asking myself is like what is going on? >> You can't get away from the fact that. we've basically elected a mafia dawn to. president of the United States. You've.

got a guy who. admires the mafia. who's running the country. So what we're. getting in some ways is a shakeddown. rather than anything driven by any sense. of political necessity. Okay. So that's. that's a crazy element to begin with. And the American deep state as it's. called has been anti-Iran for 40 or 50. years. Israel has wanted to defeat Iran. for that length of time. Trump is stupid. enough but also cunning enough. It's a.

combination of the two to take on what. Israel wanted to do, which was destroy. Iran. They're now trying to do it and. they're finding that they've they've. bitten off far more than they can chew. >> Trump is someone who cares a lot about. people's opinions of him and he must. have known that this would be. politically unpopular to target around. at this moment in time. >> I don't think so. I had a relationship. with somebody with narcissistic. personality disorder. So that's. something over and above what I learned. academically that I when I think about.

his behavior and somebody like that, they want to be the center of attention. at all times. They can't stand it when. somebody else is being spoken about. It's ridiculous, but it's it's a. pathology. So he's interested in. people's opinions so long as they're. positive and they're about him. >> So you are you saying that he attacked. Iran and started this war in part. because he wanted attention? >> That's always something with somebody. who's got that disorder. Yeah. >> I mean, what do you think about his. rational? He's saying that he attacked. Iran because they had nuclear weapons.

and they were there was an imminent. threat. >> We still don't know whether Iran has. nuclear weapons. Okay. We know that. Israel has. If you're going to attack a. country with you, you should attack. Israel, not Iran. >> But you can't attack attack Israel, can. you? Cuz. >> I cannot make sense of what politicians. all over the planet are doing these. days. There's a huge gap between what. politicians are saying about global. politics and what people in the street. are saying about it. So people on the. street have seen the Gaza genocide. They've seen all the conflicts Israel.

has started there. And I think the. general sentiment in most countries in. the world today is anti-Israel because. of the way it's treating the. Palestinians. And that's what people are. thinking about. the top echelons like in. this country as you know if I if I say. free Palestine I say that outside on the. street I can be arrested it's crazy what. there's a huge divorce between what. people are thinking and what the. politicians are saying and I can't give. any explanation for that divorce apart.

from believing that Israel has something. over our political leaders. >> what do you mean you think they have. something over our political leaders. >> I think there. We know about the whole Epstein. The the. way that the Iranians refer to what's. happening is they say they're fighting. the Epstein class and there's belief. that there's something where Epstein. has been working for with the Israeli. intelligence service and has blackmailed. worthy material on a huge range of. politicians. And that's the only way.

that I can explain the the sort of. things that politicians are supporting. when their populace is angry about those. same policies. So you get demonstrations. here, you know, free Palestine. demonstrations, 80-year-old female. vicers being arrested for saying this. sort of stuff. You go back 40 years ago, there was a a a belief in the public and. a belief amongst politicians that Israel. had a right to exist and it was all. pro-Israel. And now after 40 years, the. type of abuses that have happened in.

Palestine have hit individual ordinary. people's attitudes to Israel. So. ordinary people are saying Israel's the. aggressor. Israel's making the mistakes. But the politicians are all saying it's. a it's it's anti- um Seemitic to. criticize Israel. >> If you had to give a a one-s sentence. answer as to why this war started. because we sort of hypothesized a few. things there. What would that one. sentence answer be?

>> Again, this is trying to make sense of. the senseless. I just think Israel. wanted to destroy Iran. They thought. they could do it and they thought they. had an American president who would help. them do it and they I drastically. underestimated how prepared Iran was for. that conflict. >> Why would Israel want to destroy Iran? What's the context there? >> This goes back to religious elements. The Zionist state had the right to that. whole region and there's an expansionist. element to Israel's behavior for the. last 40 years. And the major rival they.

saw themselves as having in that sense. was Iran. They can invade Jordan. They. could attack Lebanon. Uh they could do. all these things. Of course they the 67. war. Uh they wiped out the is Arab. invading Arabian armies in six days. They have this past history of being. militarily dominant in the area and they. they knew that Iran was too big for them. to take on on their own. They thought. they could get the Americans in there. and I think they drastically.

underestimated how prepared Iran was for. this situation. >> When you say Iran were prepared for this. situation and it somewhat surprised. Israel and the US. What is that. preparedness you're speaking about? Well, it's for a start the the fact that. Iran witnessed that there were um. decapitation attacks on other countries. in the region going way way back not. just the last 10 years but the last 40. or 50 years decapitation. >> you take off the leader you kill the. leaders and then with the leaders killed. the armies in disarray and you can come.

in and invade and take over. So getting. rid of Saddam Hussein that sort of thing. you know wipe out Saddam Hussein's power. base and then the whole system. collapses. That was the Iraq story. But. the Iranians observed that and they have. broken their military into 31 divisions. There are 31 provinces like 31 states in. that sense inside Iran. Their military. has broken into those 31 units. They've. got their own fail safe system running. in the background. They've got their own. resources, their own missiles,

production systems, all that sort of. stuff. So you've got to take out the. whole 31 and then they'd have that sub. area. So the only way you can beat the. country is by literally bombing it to. back to the stone age. >> which is appears to be what they've been. trying to do. >> trying to do. But the thing is it's a. huge country. I mean look at you know. the scale of around the map's always. distort how large. So that is larger. That's more than half the size of. Western Europe. It's got a population of. 90 million about 1/3 or one quarter the. population of Europe far more than Iraq.

>> I mean it looks like it's double the. size of the UK or more. >> or more than double. I mean you know one. thing about the MA projection. >> No. What's that? >> Okay. It's that it's it makes the the. northern hemisphere is twice as large as. the southern and arounds in the northern. hemisphere but not as far north as. England. So the distortion gets. amplified the further north you go. So. it's bigger than France and Germany and. Italy and Spain. >> and possibly Poland in terms of area. And then if you even see just looking on. the map itself you can see the. corrugations there versus what you can.

see corrugation. >> the what representing mountains. Okay. >> Okay. There's more mountains inside. there. It's a hor it's a horrendous. terrain to fight a war on. I think what. Trump is doing at the moment is a pump. and dump scheme. He's trying to drive up. the oil price, tell friends beforehand. that he's about to make his announcement. which will cause the price to fall and. he's just oscillating this way up and. down and exploiting it for his friends. and for his own wealth in the process. >> Do you actually think that's the case? Because this must be make sense of this.

stuff. this must be hurting his friends. economically because the this, you know, the stock market's going to take a dip. if he's not careful and his friends are. all shareholders in different big. companies. So, you know, also if you. know like the one of Kane's great lines. was that there's no point in buying a. stock which you think is going to. increase in value over time if you think. it's going to slump in the immediate. future. So, he's making an announcement. which causes oil markets to panic. So, the price goes up. We've given him. control of the most powerful country on.

the planet. He knows if you make an. announcement, it moves markets. He has. no compunction whatsoever in exploiting. that to cause rises and falls in prices. and try to exploit them himself and with. his friends. >> I did. I mean, I did see that. I've got. the data here on on the floor showing. those graphs. I I generally looked at. that and thought, yeah, you know, maybe, but it's also conceivable that Trump is. quite a predictable character and he. tweets at the same time every day. And. it's also I think me and you both know. that before the markets open on a Monday. morning, he's going to want to say.

something really positive. >> He has a track record of doing that. So. is it conceivable that they knew he was. flying because it was tracked that he. was going to be on this plane journey. There's going to be a press gaggle. We. know he's going to give an interview. I. actually think that was quite. predictable. If I was a betting man, I. would have gone Sunday night or Monday. morning. I would have put a bet on oil. prices coming down, the stock market. going up. >> Yeah. And like for example that one of. the things he said most recently he. talked about getting a present from Iran. >> and then he finally let slip what the. present was and was letting eight ships. through the straight of Hmas.

>> Oh. those eight ships were not American. They were other allies. I think what. he's thinking is these um that's going. to mean the oil market gets calmed down. That means the price is going to fall. Uh so I can then do another pump and. dump. >> Let's explain the straight of hormones. >> Oh god. Yeah. is if we had to explain it. for 16 year olds because there's been. lots of coverage on it and I think some. people have kind of skipped past the. importance of the region. What is the. straight of hormones and why does it. matter?

>> Well, it's the choke point in the. Persian Gulf to get through. You've got. like 21 km. Okay, that's an incredibly. narrow gap for ships to pass through and. that means that all the countries that. pump not just oil but fertilizer, uh, helium, all these critical elements for. the production system all have to pass. through this point. And obviously that's. well within reach of any weapons from. Iran. So they can say you do or do not. pass depending on whether we approve or. don't approve of your political your. country's attitude towards our country.

>> You said fertilizer. >> Yeah. >> Oil and helium. >> Yeah. Helium. >> Where are they coming from? >> They're mainly coming from I think for. mainly from the Saudi Arabian side. Saudi Arabia and like Iran will have the. same things but Iran would keep it keep. those for themselves but Saudi Arabia is. the main source of gases and oils which. are refined and as byproducts we get. sulfur dioxide and we get helium. This. is the helium. >> Yeah. >> Okay. That's you know a couple of kilos. of helium. But helium it's an element.

which there's no substitute. >> So helium is inert. >> What does that mean? It means it doesn't. interact with other chemicals. You want. to give it a try? >> I've never done it. >> I don't think there's any in here. >> Oh, what a pity. Okay. What I would have. done to give it a try. You got any real. helium? >> Oh, bloody hell. Helium balloon. >> Okay. >> Does it change your voice? >> I don't know. Has my voice changed? >> It did. [laughter] I'll give my voice a.

try. Okay. >> Um Okay. I've never done this before, but I've heard it at parties. >> Okay. And now I think my voice has. changed somewhat from [laughter]. the fact you can do it. Oh my god. That is a riot. Okay. >> Where is helium coming from? >> It's coming from a gas field. So about. 30% of the world's helium comes from a. gas field which spans both Saudi Arabia. and Iran. If you don't trap helium.

physically somehow it goes to outer. space. That's the ultimate destination. of the stuff. So it's trapped in the. same things that trap oil. And then when. you drill for oil, you also get helium. coming out. And then helium is. absolutely critical for the. semiconductor industry. It didn't matter. 100 years ago. >> And semiconductors are important for. what? >> Everything. I mean you you know your you. take the semiconductors out of that, you've got a brick. Okay. The the the. processors, the CPUs, the memory chips, they're all made. Helium is an essential.

element to make them. >> for our iPhones, our tablets, >> everything. Everything electronic. If. you need semiconductors, you need. helium. So if you cut off 30% of the. world's helium supply, you cut off the. capacity to produce 30% of the world's. semiconductors. >> And Iran have blocked that gap. >> And that means that we've suddenly lost. 30% of the world's helium. >> I've got a quote from March 2026 from. leading helium expert Phil Cornblutch. >> He said, "We're looking at a minimum 2. to 3 months shutdown of helium. production with up to 6 months before.

supply gets back to normal." and he. explained you can't stockpile helium. because it leaks through containers. >> Y. >> so once supply is cut off semiconductor. production will stop entirely. South. Korea gets 65% of its helium from Qatar. in that region and makes 2/3 of the. world's memory chips. Their government. has launched an emergency investigation. into the shortage. Nobody's talking. about this. >> I know. And this this is one reason it's. quite terrifying about the scale of what. we're going through cuz people just.

thinking it's going to be oil's going to. be more expensive. That's the sort of. mindset we have. But in fact, critical. elements of the production system are. being terminated by this conflict. You. can't produce chips anymore. And you. can't Well, you got hang on. You can't. produce these chips either because the. fertilizer is disappearing. >> So, you're holding a potato in your. hand. >> Yeah. >> How are potato chips going to be. impacted by the water? >> Because the fertilizer. If we don't have. the fertilizer, we can't grow the. potatoes. And it's not just potatoes. It's a whole range of crops. We eat.

food, okay? We eat this green stuff. It. actually starts as brown stuff because. the fertilizer is an essential part of. growing all the food we eat. And the. fertilizer is produced by a process. called the habber bosch process which. takes petroleum and nitrogen and fixes. them in such a way that you can put this. on the on the field and your plants will. grow courtesy of the fertilizer. If we. didn't have fertilizer at all, guess how. many billion people the planet could. actually support? >> I don't know. >> Between one and two. And fertilizer.

comes from this region. >> Again, 20 to 30% of our fertilizer comes. from that region. >> Through the straight of. >> through the straight of Hamos. >> Where is it coming from? >> It's coming again from the the same gas. field that's producing the helium. produces a side effect of fertilizer. And you need you need I'm not a chemist, okay? So I can get these things wrong, but you need sulfur. You need sulfuric. acid as well as part of these production. processes. 20% of the world's. fertilizer, helium, sulfuric acid, all. pass through that straight. And if you.

take them away, then you can't make. microchips, which is what Korea is. suffering from. You [snorts] can't make. fertilizer, which which everybody will. suffer from. If we lost 20% of the. world's fertilizer, we'd lose roughly. 20% of the world's food. And it cause a. global famine. We've never had this. experience before. We've had localized. famines. You know, countries like India. have had famines in parts of Africa and. so on. But if this is not available, the. globe has a famine. >> And what's the last uh tanker you've got. down there? There's one more on the. floor.

>> Oh my god. Okay. Hey, that's pretty good. It was. accidental, but that's that's petroleum. Okay. A petroleum tank. Obviously empty. 20 L. >> So that's oil. >> That's oil. >> Oil. Okay. And so if that that's what. we're losing right now and people are. focusing upon the price of this but the. really important point and I can bring. up one of my own charts here is the role. of energy in production because if we. don't have energy we can't produce goods. and services and the link is incredibly. tight. This is looking at change in.

energy and change in gross world product. over the last 40 years. I'll throw this. graph on the screen for people that are. watching. >> Okay. So, what what you've got here is. the annual percentage change in gross. world product and the annual percentage. change in gross energy consumption. And. they're virtually lock step and they're. the same magnitude. >> So, when energy goes up, GDP goes up. >> And when energy goes down, GDP goes. down. Now, we're losing 20% of the. world's liquefied natural gas, a. substantial proportion of its oil as. well. We could see a 5 or 10% fall in.

energy. we will certainly see a 5 or 10%. fall in global world gross world. product. >> So explain that to me. So where is the. oil in this region? >> It's everywhere. [laughter]. >> Okay. >> I mean this this is one of the accidents. of history that the oil is a large part. is concentrated here and a large part. over here and a bit in Russia. >> So over here for people that can't see. you're pointing at Iran, Saudi Arabia, >> Saudi Arabia, >> Iraq and then there's a lot in the. United States and there's a lot. >> you've got some in Russia as well. There.

was a small amount like the North Sea. had a substantial amount of oil as well. at one stage. >> And the type of oil in this region I. hear is quite important. >> It's very I mean oil there's no such. thing as a homogeneous product. >> What does homogeneous mean? >> Me everything is the same everywhere. You can if you don't get it here you can. substitute for something over here. That's a myth that economists actually. unfortunately believe. They basically. could persuade people to think that. everything is homogeneous. In fact oil. from Venezuela is almost like tar. oil. from here is flows like water.

comparatively. You need different. processing systems to to extract that. oil than you need over here. Uh if we. lose this, we can't replace it with. something from over here. So once that. goes then the production system of the. planet is damaged. Uh this has been the. shocking thing for me as a citizen has. been the fact that a war with one. country could decapitate what 20 to 30%. >> of global production. >> global production of oil.

>> Yeah. And food. >> That's a vulnerability if I've ever. heard one. >> I know. And this is like one reason I'm. a critic of mainstream economics is they. trivialize all this stuff. They don't. teach their students how critical this. is. So most people are like you, even. people who've done a PhD in economics, even worse in that sense than other. people, they don't understand how. critical and how fragile our production. systems are. So people can talk about a. war in Iraq and think, "Oh, that's a war. in Iran and that's going to cut off our. oil supply." No, it's going to cut off. your food supply. >> And for [snorts] the average person.

listening now, what will they start to. experience if this war doesn't. immediately end? 2 or 3 months India is. going to run out of fertilizer and so. there'll be a famine in India. Food. production on the planet could fall 10. 25%. And therefore the there simply. won't be enough food for everyone on the. planet and then it's a question of who's. going to starve. Now you'd think the. wealthy countries are going to be safe. there. Look for Australia, my old home. country has about 30 days oil supply.

When it runs out it can't get food from. the farm to the city anymore. So. Australia is incredibly vulnerable. We're all far more vulnerable than we. realize and this war is threatening. everybody on the planet. >> I got in an Uber yesterday and I was. with a a wonderful guy who was actually. weirdly I sat to the Uber at 2 a.m. and. I looked up on the screen and he was. listening to the D of Sierra and then he. clocked he clocked me in the back of the. car. We had a great chat and he was. saying to me, listen this isn't actually. my main job. It's my third job. I do. this because of the cost of living and.

it really stayed with me. >> He's doing three jobs which I love. Yeah. three jobs and he picked me up at. 2:00 a.m. He's got a family. >> and he's working his butt off to keep. the family alive. >> Yes. And you know, I'm going to say. something which I probably um I don't. say a lot which which came to mind which. is um in the position I'm in now. I. think it it it was a real reminder of my. own personal privilege that I think is. really important for someone like me. that doesn't has an interview show. because you've got to be like. intellectually honest with yourself or.

just like honest with yourself generally. that like as a as someone in my position. who has been fortunate enough to be able. to make significant money. I can. understand from having that conversation. how. detached. >> you are. >> I am. >> from the world around you. >> Yes. You're you're a very unique soul because. you I know like read a bit of your. history of course and you've had that. terrible period where you were you know. unemployed and what the hell do I do. >> shoplifting food and stuff and. >> you were ambitious but you okay if you.

don't experience poverty you don't know. what it's like. >> yeah but even if you have. >> you can forget it. >> you can forget it. >> but you haven't yet. >> well this is why it's so important for. me to have those conversations because. him saying I'm working three jobs and. this is and picking me up at 2 a.m. in. his Uber and him telling me he's doing. that because of cost of living because. he needs to pay the bills immediately. made me think of ahead of this. conversation today like oh my god if the. prices go up 20% for people. >> he's out he's he can't work 24 hours a. day. >> can't work another he can't work more. hours in the day and it was just one of.

those moments where you go hell. Steve like man you need to stay close to. the plight of uh of people that are. >> on the bread line and so many people are. these days in advanced countries not. just third world countries but certainly. like in America and the UK there are. huge numbers of people who are basically. living from hand to mouth at the current. system. So if we have a breakdown they. can't afford it and in that situation. you can no longer use money as your way. of deciding whether you can eat food or.

not. >> I wonder if politicians know this cuz. part of the reason I say this is because. you know Trump is a very wealthy man. multi-billionaire reportedly. >> and if the prices go up 20% at the pump. >> he makes profit. I mean he actually when. he said he said he said in favor of the. rising oil price we'll make a lot of. money out of it. His immediate. association rising price of something. that I'm indirectly selling that's good. He doesn't say what about people buying. it. The people who buy it can no longer. afford it. >> You've got um some food there on the. table which shows how these conflicts.

and the pressure they put on some of. these scarce resources can impact our. ability to go and buy food. I think. you've got two bowls of potatoes. >> Well, let's actually make it fairer. right now. Let's get the actual. distribution correct initially. So, you. are talking about someone who in your. situation, you've got that. local Uber's got this, and now you're. taking away the oil price. That's going. to make Trump better off, but he's down.

to the stage where, you know, he's not. too far from that happening. And that's. what we've pushed ourselves into with. this war. Do do wars typically make inequality. worse? >> Very good question. I think wars are. created when inequality is bad. If you. go back to the Great Depression and see. what caused World War II, it was largely. the collapse of the German economy. Uh. when they repaid their debt, their. private debt to America or government.

private government debt to America that. led to the rise of Hitler. Everybody. thinks Hitler rose because of the VHimar. inflation. That's what people normally. think. In fact, the when when Hitler. came to power in Germany, the rate of. inflation was minus 10%. It was. deflation. Prices were falling. Unemployment rose from very low to 25%. of the population. In that situation, people supported Hitler. He revived the. economy. I'm happy to talk about how he. did that later. But inequality leads to.

people being willing to elect demagogues. to say we can save you. And then you get. war coming out of it. What happened. after the World War II is. politicians realized that people had. been through the Great Depression, which. was horrific, and they'd been through. World War II, which was horrific. And in. that period, people in America were. talking about either a fascist world or. a communist world. So the Americans. realized they had to improve the living. standards of the average American.

substantially to get away from that. And. if you look at, you know, in 1950s. and60s, that's what is called the golden. age of capitalism because at that stage, you could be a single male supporting a. wife and four kids and have a. comfortable lifestyle at the time. That was where we started from. So the. the war itself led to a focus upon. equality, a focus upon fairness and. getting as much as you can to the. poorest in society. And then we've. forgotten that over the last 80 years.

And we've now got back to massive. inequality once more. So I think. inequality causes wars. Wars in the. aftermath make people focus on equality. not to allow that horror to happen once. more. And then we forget and do the. whole damn thing again. >> One of the um surprising things I. learned the other day was that the. country that is estimated to have the. biggest reserve of oil. is Venezuela. >> Yep. The third country on this list that. is estimated to have the biggest reserve.

of oil is Iran. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Now, it doesn't take a genius. Funny. enough, >> of two countries have added. Yeah. The. second country being America. >> Well, it says Saudi Arabia. >> Saudi Arabia. Well, that's already an. American vessel. Yeah. >> Yeah. That's already basically they're. basically partners with America already. >> And funnily enough, the fourth one is. Canada. And if you if you're listening a. lot to Trump's rhetoric, he said he was. going to take Canada and make it the. 51st state or something. it doesn't feel. that the countries that the US are.

invading their leaders are the country. that have the biggest supplies. And. Trump has already said, you know, immediately he said after taking out. Maduro in Venezuela, >> pulling him out of his bed with his wife. and flying him back to the US, >> he already said that the oil's on the. way back to America. >> Yeah. One might assume that much of the. motivation here with Iran is when they. were in negotiations with them, maybe. they weren't playing boy ball with the. oil. Maybe they were threatening. something with the oil and maybe it's.

such an economic waste. >> Well, maybe most of Trump's friends, if. he has them, are oil executives and they. can see the benefit for them in. controlling global oil and the one part. they can't control is Iran. >> But I mean, it would it's backfired. pretty horrifically. I think one of the. great sayings in humanity is it's looked. like a good idea at the time, then you. do it and you realize you underestimated. your opponent. You have you don't. realize how difficult it is. Like you. mentioned, you know, talking about how. being wealthy can make you dissociate. from the problems that ordinary people.

have. It can also make you dissociate. from reality in general. You don't. realize how difficult it is to something. do something you want to have done. So. all these oil executives and people who. Trump socializes with could have. thought, take out Iran, America. dominates the global oil thing. We're. all going to be rich. Okay? But they. don't realize that Iran's been aware of. this possibility for 40 years. And. they're prepared. They're far better. prepared than the Americans and the. Israelis thought. >> So you've got five scenarios laid out on.

these cards in front of you here that. you think could happen next. I'm going. to ask you to explain to me what the. five scenarios are and then tell me. which one you think is most likely to. occur. >> So, scenario one, which is the one that. I think Trump is I think Israel wants. this one, Iran has destroyed. Okay, if. that happens, we're all gone because to. destroy Iran, you're going to have to. use nuclear weapons. Okay, you can't. destroy it without obliterating it as. nuclear weapons do. And that's the. scariest. I don't think it's going to.

happen. My main hope here is that Iran. realizes that possibility and they've. got a way to neutralize. not America's nuclear weapons, but. Israel's. >> You think it's a possibility? >> It's a possibility and it's what scares. the out of me because if this. happens, then we're all dead. Obviously, a nuclear bomb doesn't just blow up an. individual target. It everything within. reach gets exploded into the atmosphere. That's what led people to realize that. you couldn't have a nuclear war back in. the days when we had mutually assured.

destruction as the as the policy. If you. attack a country, then you will also. die. >> But can't they use narrow nuclear. weapons? Is that not a thing? >> Well, um. >> smaller nuclear weapons. >> Well, again, if the country is smaller, you're talking about destroying Europe. The weapons you'd need to make sure you. got every last potential element of Iran. neutralized. You're talking about. bombing something which is, you know, virtually the size of Western Europe. The amount of weapons you got to drop to. do that.

and you've got to if you if you don't. get it right, then they're going to come at you with. what they've got left. >> The world has dropped nuclear weapons. before and people survive. Other. neighboring countries survived. >> only twice and only small weapons. The. weapons we're talking about in Hiroshima. and Nagasaki, they're about equivalent. to 20,000 tons of TNT. We're now talking. weapons to 20 million tons of TNT, the. biggest nuclear weapons. And if you. wanted to hit a country the size of Iran.

and know you've neutralized it, so you. destroy the whole thing, you're talking. hundreds of those weapons. >> If you had to give a percentage. probability of that outcome occurring, would it be less than 1%? If we didn't have a madman in. Washington, yes, be less than 1%. Um, if. we didn't have madman in Israel, less. than 1%, I think probably 5%. >> 5% probability that. >> that's a possibility. I mean, again, you. know, this is trying to make sense of. the senseless. >> Okay.

>> But I'd put it about less than 10% but. still scary as a possibility. >> If we end up there, we're all gone. I mean, you know, I know very little. about all these things, so that's the. disclaimer. Um, I'd say that I don't. think Israel would intentionally wipe. out the rest of the world or cause a. nuclear winter because that would. obviously impact them as well. But I I I. am quite scared of president's setting. And what I mean by that is if we. establish it being okay to drop nuclear.

weapons on people you don't like, the. sort of domino effect of that for people. in Ukraine and other parts of the world. where there's conflict might then lead. to, >> you know, mutually assured destruction. >> Yeah. It's the it's the last possibility. you want to have happen. The fact that. it's even possible to contemplate it is. a terrifying prospect. >> Let us hope. >> Yeah. So scenario two. is Iran destroys the Gulf power. infrastructure. I think that's highly. likely. >> Iran destroys Gulf power infrastructure.

What does that mean? >> What it means is that Iran all the Gulf. states have got their own power systems. mainly based on burning oil for obvious. reasons. Uh if you take out their power. structure systems then those countries. become uninhabitable. >> Is that what's happening already? Cuz I. know Iran have attacked a few sort of. power facilities in the region. There. have been a couple of well there was one. attack on a Saudi Arabian power systems. and that took out two of the 14 units. that are critical for creating liqufied. natural gas and apparently it'll take 5.

years to rebuild them and there are only. five companies on the planet that can. actually do that rebuilding. One quarter. of the world's liquid natural gas comes. through the straight of Hamos. One tenth. of that has been destroyed. It's like 2. and a half% of the world's energy supply. is gone for the next 5 years until those. are rebuilt. If Iran destroys the Gulf. power infrastructure, then Saudi Arabia, Qatar, uh Dubai, they all become. uninhabitable. >> And we're seeing that happen in parts. I. mean, it sounds like this these attacks.

have slowed down a little bit, but it. was interesting that Iran's strategy was. to attack their neighboring sort of. partners and specifically targeting a. lot of their energy infrastructure. Is. that in part to apply pressure? >> Yeah. If I attack Dubai, the leaders of. Dubai are going to call Trump and say, "Listen, cut this out.". >> Oh, yeah. I mean, the pressure coming. back from the Arabian states on America, I imagine, is quite immense right now, saying, "Don't do it." It's quite. possible Israel could do it, like attack. Iran and then Iran does a retribution. attack. Trump, if you would have seen.

his tweet this morning, I think he's put. it off to April the 6th before he says. he starts attacking power. infrastructure. if he attacks power. infrastructure in Iran. Iran has said we. will attack power infrastructure in the. Gulf States. So we've got till you know. what 8 days. I think he's bluffing. I. hope he's bluffing. But if he does do. the attack then Iran will respond by. destroying either an equivalent. component of the Gulf States or the. whole infrastructure. >> I don't think people quite realize how. costly it is for regions like Dubai when.

Iran attack them. I was looking at some. of the data. >> Yeah. >> And according to current estimates and. historical risk assessments by Dubai. officials, >> they lose a million per minute, which is. 60 million per hour or 1.4 billion a day. when there's an unplanned emergency. shutdown just of their airport. >> Their airports, let alone their power. systems. Yeah. >> As we probably saw on the news, Iran had. flown it seemed like a couple of drones.

into Dubai's airport, which meant that. it had to shut down. Yeah, >> they're losing a billion a day because. that airport is closed. I think it's the. biggest airport in the world. >> It is economic pressure. which will then trickle down to Trump. and sort of force his hand. So, they've. got a clear incentive to cause chaos. >> Yeah. >> And that partly what Iran is saying. It's it's like a game of bluff. You. don't want to do this bluff. If that. bluff happens then the Saudi Arabian. peninsula becomes uninhabitable.

and therefore all the I mean that if if. people have are forced out of there and. most of the residents in those countries. are not Saudis. They're third world. workers from India and Pakistan and the. Philippines and so on. They're being. paid lousy wages to to work on all these. systems. If they leave because the power. is not there to support them anymore. they try to leave then we lose the. entire energy contribution that that. region makes to the global economy. >> and and the figure screwed. >> and that figure I cited includes not.

just lost airport revenue but then the. immediate impact on airlines cargo. logistics and the missed opportunity. cost of thousands of highv value. business travelers attending the region. that Dubai's GDP is roughly 30%. dependent on the aviation and tourism. sectors so when the airport closes it. impacts tourism hospitality real estate. investing global supply chains and. everything so it's Um, it's quite. remarkable specifically with Dubai. >> because Dubai I think Dubai is a lovely. place. I've been multiple times. I I I I. love going there. >> But it felt really safe and so a lot of.

people. >> It's not safe. Yeah. >> It's not safe. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. A lot of people had chosen to. uproot their lives and move there and. you'd almost kind of forgotten you were. in the Middle East to some degree. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> But I think this is going to be a pretty. traumatic reminder for a lot of people. there. >> how fragile. >> how fragile. >> this area is and like that's the lesson. we're learning. It's the fragility of. the society we take for granted. >> So that was scenario number two. >> Okay. Scenario three. That's the one. that really scares me because that is. the Samson doctrine. You know the story.

of Samson. Yeah. Okay. Samson is a. enormously strong individual who's. strong because of his hair. And then he. gets conned. This is an ancient story. from the Bible. And the woman who's. conned him shaves his hair. So he's. weakened. And then they put him in a. temple where he's standing between two. pillars and his hair is gone. He's bald. He can't do a thing. They forget the. fact that his hair is starting to grow. His hair gets to the stage where he's. now got his strength back. He pushes. those pillars and the whole thing.

collapses and everybody dies. That's the. Samson doctrine. And that involves. Israel's nuclear weapons. If they. realize that they are going to lose this. war and it becomes existential for them. then one of the things they have claimed. that they do is unleash destruction on. the rest of the world [snorts] like. Samson pushing the towers and the whole. thing comes collapsing down. >> This is I mean going back to the. situation with Iran and Israel. One of. the things I was thinking a lot about. from some commentary that I'd seen is. Israel really have a motive to get rid.

of Iran because Iran have repeatedly. threatened Israel. It's also because I. mean Israel is trying to get rid of the. Palestinians and in that sense Iran has. been probably the major bulkwood. supporting the Palestinians say let the. Palestinians survive. Let the. Palestinian people continue existing. And the Israelis have been pushing and. pushing and pushing the Palestinians. out. You know, it's a hornets's nest. We've provoked a hornets's nest. Iran is.

responding right now, I think, in a very. judicious way. But if the Israelis. realize they're facing an existential. defeat, that scenario, it would again. mean uh civilization potentially gets. destroyed. And just looking at some of. the things that Iran have said about. Israel, historically, the Supreme Leader. of Iran stated in 2015 that Israel would. not see the next 25 years. Other. officials said things like, "The end is. near." Um, >> and in March 2026, Iran's tone shifted.

from ideological to purely retaliatory. with the speaker of the Iranian. Parliament, Muhammad, stating that Iran. has officially declared that it. considers all Israel energy, water, and. IT infrastructure legitimate targets for. irreversible destruction with zero. restraint. If we think about this from a psychology. perspective, you've got two neighbors. They're both either implying implicitly. or explicitly that they want to wipe the. other one out. >> Yeah. >> Trump is sort of this third party in in.

the arrangement who's not in the region, so he might be a little bit safer. >> Those two parties that are against each. other, one of them has nuclear weapons. and the other appears to be trying to. make one. the neighbor that is Israel. presumably cannot let that happen. because if it gets to a point where they. both have nuclear weapons and they both. want to wipe each other out. >> No, I I actually think that the old days. of mutually assured destruction were a. more stable time than what we're in now.

because if you realize that if you. attack you also die, you don't attack. >> But what if you think of death as being. a better thing than life? You you have to have a society. continuing after you die. If you're. going to be a martyr, there has to be. people who are going to mourn your. death. If you believe being a martyr. means everybody else so so dies and you. don't do it. >> So, do you think if Iran had nuclear. weapons, it would be a safer world? >> I think it'd be safer because it would. tell the Israelis, stop attacking your. neighbors. >> I sat with um a few nuclear experts and.

one of the things that was shocking that. I learned is. >> if the United States wanted to launch a. nuclear weapon today, >> Yeah. It is one person's decision. >> I heard that. And that's what Trump can. actually just make that decision. >> He can make the decision on his own. He. doesn't need to consult Congress or. anybody else. He has someone who walks. around with a briefcase that has the. nuclear codes in at any moment. They. call it Yeah. And when I think about the. same in this region, actually, you don't. need a whole state to decide that they. don't like their neighbor. All you need. is one supreme leader.

>> or Netanyahu to say, "Do you know what? I'm near the end of my life and these. [snorts] people have really pissed me. off." Yeah, that's right. And that's I. mean I thought there was at least some. control. I saw I saw that segment with. Annie Jacobson. Yeah. >> I thought there was at least some. control. He had to consult someone. >> But if and or they had to have. circumstances were justified not. consulting someone. >> If he's got that right, then we it comes. down to what's the behavior of the. person who carries the nuclear football. Does he let Trump get hold of it? And.

like there there was another incident. way way back I think in this 70s or 80s. that the Russian early warning system. reported that there was a nuclear attack. on the way to Russia and there was one. submarine commander or one element of a. submarine command system and they had to. have three people in the submarine who. agreed to to launch an attack and this. particular person refused. If he'd agreed with the other. nuclear war at it,

even the Russian submarine had three. people who had to make that decision. So, we didn't have a nuclear war. Now, we've got one maniac in this White House. who could do it. I'll play Annie. Jacobson's clip now where she talks. about the idea of sole authority which I. think is an important thing for people. to understand because when we think. about who we're electing to lead our. nuclear capable countries. >> you have to think about who you want to. give sole authority to.

>> the United States president has sole. presidential authority to launch a. nuclear war. >> what does that mean. >> it's exactly like it sounds what's so. interesting is a lot of this stuff this. nomenclature that gets thrown at. If you just break it down, it's sole. solo presidential. He's the pus. authority. He doesn't have to ask anyone. for permission. Not the SEC staff, not. the chairman of the joint chiefs of. staff, not the Congress. I love the. worried look on your face in this moment.

because it is once you know that. you say well first you might Google is. it really true and you will get for. example on Reddit like that's not really. true you'll get like hundreds of. thousands of people you know coming in. with their opinions about how that's not. really true well it is really true it's. absolutely true and in fact during the. former President Trump administration. Congress became so sort of I want to say.

motivated or alarmed by this issue. meaning they were being asked questions. by the powers that be. Is this actually. true that they released a report stating. specifically and I quote in the book yes. it is true as commanderin-chief. the president has this sole authority. He doesn't need to ask anyone. >> So what is scenario four in your. envelopes there? Iran disables Israel's. nukes. Nobody can know. But I do believe.

that Iran has not developed nuclear. weapons. >> So you're hoping Iran disables Israel's. nuclear weapons? >> I am. I hope that happens because that. takes out the nuclear option. Okay. We. won't see nuclear war as a result of. this. If the only nuclear weapons that. we know exist in the Middle East are. destroyed. >> But if Iran starts disabling Israel's. nukes and attacking Israel that. effectively, there's going to be an even. bigger problem. Well, not not if we're. talking conventional weapons. If it's. conventional weapons and ground trips, then you don't end up with nuclear.

winter and the death of everybody on the. planet. >> Wait, so you're saying you hope Iran. invades Israel and takes out their. nuclear weapons? >> No, that's necessarily invasion. It. could be the missiles they've got left. Again, we don't know how capable their. missiles are. The level of planning that. Iran has done in this war, I I had no. idea of of the fact they had those 31. regions, for example, until the war. began. My special is economics, not. global military politics. But once I. learned that, I thought they have really. thought this through. They have wargamed.

what happens if they get attacked by. America. And they've warmed it. comprehensively. Now, I hope they've. also wargamed if we start defeating. Israel and Israel realizes they're going. to be wiped out, then the possibility. for the Samson doctrine comes in. We. have to disable that before it happens. How could they possib They They don't. have a functioning military left in any. sort of typical sense. They don't have. ships left. They don't have planes left. >> They don't have ships. They don't have. planes. But they have got missiles. And.

we don't know how many missiles they've. got. We don't know where the missiles. are. Certainly the Americans would have. some intelligence. I think the word's. got to be used with inverted commas. these days, but some intelligence over. where they are located in Iran. But if. you listen to the Iranians talking about. it, they say they've got hundreds of. these facilities buried hundreds of. meters below the ground. If the with the. weapons they've developed, the the um. advanced rocketry they've developed, they can evade RIL's Iron Dome, maybe.

they can also get into and destroy. Israel's launch capabilities. And if. that happens, I think that's that would. be the best possible outcome because we. have a a rogue state in the Middle East. which has nuclear weapons which will. neither admit that it has or won't sign. it. They're not part of the nuclear. nonpol proliferation treaty. They won't. sign that treaty. We should never have. allowed that to happen. And if Iran gets. rid of them, I think it's the world's a. safer place. >> Israel are just going to make more. nuclear weapons. >> They have the resources. Uh, you need a.

hell of a lot of technology and a hell. of a lot of intelligent people to do. that. You've already lost the war to. >> How could Israel lose the war? >> You've got 90 a population of 90 million. in Iran and a [snorts] population of. less than 10 million in Israel. >> But they've got it's a sort of. technological. gulf. >> It's not as big as we thought it was. We're only realizing now the level of. technology that Iran has. I mean the. things which Iran are doing in this war. so far have surprised everybody who's. hasn't got the background of.

intelligence to tell them what's going. on uh it's an educated sophisticated. culture far more so than the caricature. we've got from the west has been about. it in the past so they. >> they don't have near nearly the same. level of resources and technology and uh. and I would say maybe sort of. sophisticated yeah advanced systems from. a war perspective that Israel do. >> We think we don't know. We're assuming.

>> even the intelligence services, even. their like their planes and their. missiles and their defense systems are. like profoundly more advanced than. Iran's. >> If that was the case, we wouldn't be. having this conversation. It's 3 weeks. after the war began or 4 weeks. You. know, the original belief that Trump has. to be over in one day. That's proved. false. >> I think that's in part because of what. you said because they've prepared for. decapitation. If I was the supreme. leader of Iran, yeah, that's the sort of. approach I would have taken, which is. you take me out and actually you've got.

a bigger problem because now you've got. to negotiate with 41 or 31 different. sort of submillitaries and that's an. impossible task. >> Yeah. Yeah. And that's the Iranians were. aware of that and they've got a, you. know, a huge army. They've got they can. conscript far more people than Israel. has. Um it's to me if it gets down to an. conventional military then it's possible. that you know Israel could lose that as. well. >> On March 21 Trump threatened to. obliterate Iran's power plants if they. did not fully reopen the straight of. Hormos within 48 hours.

>> He then came out and said that he was. pausing that because Iran were. negotiating. >> um and he says he he thinks he's. negotiating with the right person. As of. yesterday, Trump has announced a 10day. pause until April 6th on destroying. energy plants, claiming that indirect. talks are going very well and that Iran. is begging to make a deal according to. the Guardian. So, what's going on there. in your view? >> I think he's gaming the markets. I.

really think he's using it to cause the. OMI price to go up and down and gaming. at either side. and somebody in his. circle or people are making a fortune. playing that's the case. >> Yeah, I do. I mean. >> because there's lots of ways to make. money that don't involve crashing the. global economy, losing the midterms. >> Yeah, you'd think of that. You've got. you've got ethics, you've got empathy, you've got morals. Trump has none of. those things. >> Do you not think it's just it's just. again if we look at Trump's pattern of. behavior over time, even with the.

tariffs? >> Yeah. The same pattern of behavior. occurred there where he would come out. and say, "Every leader is calling me. They can't stop calling me. They all. want to make a deal. I'm going to do a. tariff on you 10%. Wait, no, I'm not. Pause. Call me.". >> Yeah. >> It's the same pattern of behavior. It's. you you make a threat system. Yeah. >> You then. >> blackmail the person to try and. negotiate with you. when they don't, you. hit them with the thing hard and. eventually in the end of the day, you. don't really do any of the stuff you. threaten to do. >> because you've sort of. >> manipulated a person into getting your.

way. It's the same pattern of behavior. We're going to smash you if you don't. call me. >> Yeah, >> they do or don't call. He announces to. the world that they called. They're. begging. Look, it says here, "They're. begging me for a deal. I'm going to give. them 10 more days.". >> To me, it sounds like he's trying to. build his golden bridge to get the. out of there. What he's imagining is. he's dealing with somebody like himself. in Iran. Okay? He's he's projecting what. how he would react to these things. He's. obviously projecting his own behavior. onto the system. And it's projection.

rather than understanding. So if you. decapitate, you know, if you took out. Trump, the fear of being, you know, assassinated, yes, well bargain, what do. you want me to do? He thinks that works. in Iran. It doesn't. >> You can look at his behavior and sort of. understand what he wants. He wants to. win this war and he he want you know he. wants to win the war and that's and get. out of there because that's what he's. been saying. We've won. We won. We've. won every day. We've won. More missiles. go in. We've won. So that's clearly what. he wants to happen. The problem is. winning here doesn't seem like a. straightforward thing. >> No, it's not going to happen. >> No pun intended with a straight up. But.

it really doesn't seem like a. straightforward thing. >> So I it's my opinion now that they are a. little bit stuck because if you leave. now you lose. >> Yeah. >> Iran start firing at Israel. Israel. don't stop even though you tell them to. Yeah, >> they start firing at each other. The. whole thing blows up. Oil, they keep the. straight of Horos closed. Oil prices go. up. It looks terrible, terrible, terrible for Trump. We might get he. might find himself in a Bush situation. where his legacy, and I think that's. such an important word, a man that can't. be elected for a third term. His legacy.

is tarnished in the same way that Bush's. legacy was tarnished by going to war in. the Middle East. M. >> I think his greatest fear, Trump's. greatest fear, you think back through. all of these moments over the last. couple years where he talked about the. Nobel Prize, >> I think he's trying to put himself on. the Mount Rushmore of presidents. >> Yeah. >> In history's mind. >> And I think how this situation plays out. now, the sole thing he's thinking about. is his legacy. And right now, being. stuck in a war and contemplating putting. ground troops in is arguably the worst.

thing for one's legacy. Americans dead. >> Yeah. And lots of Americans dead. These. wars are like you think about Vietnam. These wars are never really won. >> No. Well, they did. America hasn't won a. war since World War II and even World. War II was won by the Russians more so. than the Americans. So, we have this. picture of America as being this, you. know, invincible military power. But it. lost in Vietnam. It lost in Iraq. It. lost in Afghanistan. America's failed in. all of these. This is another American. failure, but on a scale far beyond what.

happened in Afghanistan and Vietnam. >> Do you think he will send ground troops. in? Yes, I do. Uh, and like I've seen. people talking about where the troops. might land. And the only part of they. can land is is right towards this edge. here with Pakistan, where they might. land to between 2 and 10,000 troops. I'd. hate to be one of those troops because. it's a suicide mission. again with those. 31 provinces, the separated um military. commands they've got, the weapons. they've got hidden underground, the. troops themselves who if if you know. that there are Americans landing and.

you're Iranian and a soldier, you are. going to attack them like nobody's. business and not be afraid of your own. death because you do think if you get. martyed, it's the remaining people that. you're defending. There will be people. who recognize you as a martyr. It's it's. horrific. If you had to give a sort of. percentage probability of them putting. ground troops in, >> I would say more than 50%. We're going. to find out in the next couple of weeks. >> Much of the reason most people haven't. posted content or built their personal. brand is because it's hard and it's.

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>> What is the best case scenario? The. Americans have to realize they've lost. They've not going to negotiate the terms. of reparation. And what Iran has. proposed, when you look at Iran's terms, they're extremely reasonable. They're. saying America. leaves the whole Asian. America no. longer comes back in this region. No. military bases, no agreements. This. becomes Iranian protectorate. That. becomes an Arabian Empire or not Arabian. Iranian Empire because they're not. they're not Arabs. They're Persians. Uh.

so this becomes like a Muslim part of. the world that's you can actually take. the whole region out to here it's all. Muslim and what's been happening and. this is part of the weird religious. elements here you've got the Sunni sect. and the Shiite sect which is a bit like. the Protestants versus the Catholics go. back 500 years and what we're seeing. here is like the 100red years war that. occurred in Europe back in the days when. it was Protestant birth as Catholic was. a serious thing. Um, so we're seeing a. religious war being fought here and the.

the Sunni majority about 90% of Muslims. are Sunni. They have focused on their. rivalry with the Shiites. And so what. they've done is they've sided with this. mob to enable United States the states. to so they've sided with the Christians. to strengthen their own Muslim sect. which is the Sunni sect against the. Shiite sect which is Iran is. predominantly Shiite. Now what's. happening here is as soon as the war. started America. the reason the the Arabs agreed to bases.

here military bases is they thought it. to protect them from Iran. As soon as. the war starts those spaces are. obliterated the Americans leave and they. realize that hasn't worked at all. So. the deal the Sunnis made to side with. the Christians has proved to be an. extremely bad deal. You're going to have. to have change in who rules these. countries to enable it to happen. But I. think the persuasive case coming out of. this within the Muslim areas is Muslims. stick together. Don't cooperate with the.

Christians. >> Don't cooperate with the United States. >> I think that's what's going to happen. >> You think that's going to happen? >> I hope so because that at least gives us. something which is relatively stable. This becomes a region that is Muslim. >> When you say this, you mean the Middle. East? >> I mean the whole Middle East, Saudi. Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan as well. because it's a Muslim country. Afghanistan. This region becomes Muslim. dominated. Shiites and Sunnis start to I. mean the whole idea of of Catholics. fighting Protestants that's completely. dissipated. Um there's no level in in.

the west anymore of large scale military. type animosity between Catholics and and. Protestants. That's what's happening. over here. The the conflicts those. religious conflicts within the Cath. within the Christians disappeared. largely speaking. They're still. happening within the Muslim religion. This could persuade them that that's got. to end. >> So, we've got one more scenario. Scenario five. >> Iran develops nuclear weapons. I'd. rather four happen than five. >> Which of these five outcomes do you.

think is most probable to happen? >> I think the most likely outcome is Iran. disables Israel's nuclear weapons. Because Iran has been so prepared for. this conflict in a way that America has. not, in a way that Israel was not. I. hope they're also prepared for the. eventuality of having to neutralize. Israel's nuclear weapons. >> You think the highest probability is. Iran disabling Israel's nukes? >> Yeah, I hope I'm right. I mean, if Iran. gets destroyed, then this leads not to.

Iran developing nuclear weapons, but. every potential rival for America on the. planet developing nuclear weapons. We go. to a nuclear war dominated world. Do you. not think it's more likely that Trump is. going to find himself a golden bridge to. get out of this situation? He's going to. call Netanyahu in Israel and say, "Stand. down, please. I'm going to announce that. we've won this war. I'm going to. announce that we've done a deal. It's. all over.". >> Well, without doubt, whatever happens, Trump is going to say he won. Okay,

that's again the narcissistic. personality disorder thing. He simply. couldn't bring himself to stand on a. stage and say, "I lost." I mean, think. about the biggest insult that Trump ever. made in his apprenticeship show. You're. a loser. Okay? Being a loser is the. absolute worst possible thing that. anybody can be in his mind. If he has to. say, "I'm a loser," then his life is. over in that sense. He's self his. selfimage is over. So, whatever deal. comes out, he's going to say he won. For.

the for the average person that's. listening now when they hear all this. conflict going on on in the world from. an economic perspective, is there. anything they can be doing to protect. themselves against some of these. downstream consequences? >> Well, I think one thing is people we. we've now got to the stage where you can. buy your own uh solar systems for your. house. You need something which means. you are not dependent upon oil anymore. I I think we've trivialized the dangers. of climate change for the last half. century. We've done very little about it. to reverse it. This is telling people.

that if you relied upon oil, you've got. a fragile existence. Even if it cost you. more to build solar, you've got to build. solar as your own alternative energy. system. Cuz without energy, there's no. civilization. And that's what we're learning the hard. way from this conflict. So I think. individual responses is going to be get. some way to have your own power source. and for most people that means having a. solar. One man that has done a lot for. both solar and sustainable energy is. Elon Musk.

>> He has. He's also helped get bloody. Trump elected. So I think you've got to. score that against him as well. But. yeah, his work on solar then and and and. power and rocketry. I've absolutely. admired that and I see that as a. critical positive contribution. But. getting Trump elected, he played a major. role in that. He should learn from that. mistake and get the out of. politics. He has backed off politics. now, which is. >> I think he's realized how poisonous it. is. Yeah. >> Yeah. It sounds like he's realized you. can't really change the beast. No, >> he tried. >> Yeah. He should stick with the era where.

he's mature, which is what he does with. energy systems and what he does with. rocketry. He's really I mean, in terms. of legacy, uh, he's tainted his legacy. by getting involved in politics. Go back. to engineering. So you say that you. think people should invest in solar for. their homes to get their own energy. sources so they're a little bit. insulated from these sort of. macroeconomics. Is there anything else. they should be thinking about? You know, the average person the cost of living. crisis. What what happens next? What. should they be doing now? >> The thing that I'm most worried about. this is the impact upon food. I'm the.

last person to talk about growing your. own food. I've never done it. I'm I've. got brown thumbs, not green ones. But I. think if you can have any way to produce. your own food, you've got a bit of. insulation against what's happening at. the global level. The lesson that comes. out of this is self-sufficiency. If we don't have self-sufficiency, then. these sorts of global chaotic things can. destroy you completely with you having. no recompense. If you have some degree. of self-sufficiency, you can survive. >> And how does one create.

self-sufficiency? Growing your own food. is quite expensive and slow, isn't it? >> Yeah, extremely. >> So, how does one develop. self-sufficiency in this these sort of. economic climates? Is it saving money or. is it um. >> I think it's having your own physical. resources close to you that enable you. Money doesn't matter if you can't buy. the product in the first instance. The. product doesn't exist anymore. So, one. thing that happened during World War II. is a large amount of food was grown in. the UK by people turning their gardens. into market gardens. I. >> I've heard you make a few predictions.

about the future of the economic. markets. You know, you're famous for. predicting 2008 and the financial crash. that occurred then. I've heard you. saying that you think because of AI. there's going to be another financial. crash around the corner within one or. two years. >> Yeah. What's happening with AI is a. classic economic boom and bust cycle. overlaid on the fact that AI can also. eliminate a huge amount of employment. which we've never seen that possibility. in the past on that scale. But a common.

pattern in capitalism is that some new. technology will be developed like. railways for example. Some people see. the potential profitability of railways. Everybody pours in creating railways. You get too many railways built. The 90%. of the companies that create the. railways go bust. But then we all have. these rail systems that we benefit from. afterwards. So that's the classic uh. pattern of Joseph Schumpeda was the. person who best described that of that. Austrian economist from the early uh.

early 20th century. So he said you'll. get the the banks will finance a new. investment area that investment produces. a new technology which causes a boom. while you're building the technology but. when the technology comes online it. undercuts existing businesses and causes. a slump. So they boom and slump cycle. and AI is a natural example of that and. what you get is massive overinvestment. in the first instance because everybody. who invests in AI has the ambition of. being the only AI provider on the. planet. Therefore you get too many.

companies investing there's too much. money going into it. That's what causes. a boom. But then when the technology. comes online because it undercuts. existing technologies you have a slump. And when you look at the investment. taking place at the moment, the big tech. companies, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, own Google, Oracle is on track. to spend 720 billion on AI. infrastructure in 2026 alone, which is. less than 20% of the revenue that. they're making. We are seeing a 5:1.

ratio of money being spent versus money. coming in. Yeah. >> Which is historically unsustainable. >> Yeah. And I think that's true. There. there has to be a slump coming out of. this. And in in a sense, that's part of. the natural cyclical behavior of. capitalism because if you want to make a. profit, you've got to bring in. technology that undercuts everybody. you're currently rivals with. So that's. the railways are a classic example. there. You know, you had to get around. by carriage instead. You undermine the. carriage companies by bringing in the. railways. But the ultimate benefit,

society benefits because now you got the. railways for transportation. So that's. the same sort of thing that AI is doing. this time around. But companies 90% of. those companies are going to fail. >> I mean this is kind of what we're seeing. already. So the failure rate of AI. specific startups has hit 90% in 2026. >> Wow. That's luck. >> Yeah, you you predicted that one. correctly. Significantly higher than the. 70% average for general technology. Roughly 95% of enterprise AI pilots fail. to move into into production when they. incur massive cost. The other thing I. think a lot about is um.

>> a lot of startups now are raising a lot. of money at crazy crazy valuations. I. can think of one particular startup I. know they're making like a couple of. million dollars a year. They've raised. at a billion dollar valuation. >> and because they've [clears throat] got. the word AI on them. And the thing is. >> because everyone's so such in a frenzy. at the moment about AI, they're probably. going to raise at a 2 billion valuation. 6 months from now. >> When you think about what's going on. there, someone somewhere is putting. their money in. >> and they're going to lose it all. >> And they're going to lose it all. And. when when everybody starts losing all. their money very very quickly, you see. this contraction.

>> Yeah. where everybody realizes that. their paper gains, the gains they. thought they had on paper because of. valuation went up have just evaporated. And when you see that, you have to. quickly count your pennies. >> Yeah. >> And get frugal. >> and pull back in again. >> Pull back in again. Lay people off and. so on and so forth. So I I actually do. personally believe that we're probably. within 24 months of a pretty severe. contraction. And that won't just impact. these tech oligarchs, it'll impact all. of us in different ways. >> Yeah, it's a Burman bus cycle. I mean. the only thing which we've experienced.

in our own lives which is similar would. be the telecommunications bubble and. then the internet bubble between 1990. and 2001 2002. um we don't get bubbles in the internet. anymore because that's now a stable. technology in that sense uh but it. wasn't a big one this is much bigger. >> what do we do as entrepreneurs as team. members and companies what do we do at. this moment if what you're saying is. correct that there will be a. >> a boom and bust. >> a boom and bust which which I think ab. every smart person that I've spoken to.

agrees that there will be a bust soon. >> Yeah. >> Their timelines vary. >> Yeah. >> But what does one do right now in March, April 2026 to prepare for this? >> Well, you put money aside if you can. You buy other assets you think are going. to survive the the Burman bus cycle. >> Like what? >> That's the trouble. I mean, gold's been. driven up. Gold's now been driven down. Uh people are buying Bitcoin, but. Bitcoin is collapsing as well. uh in. some ways you you really you can't it's. like saying what do I do during an. earthquake to not fall over in terms of.

insulating yourself I really can't see a. way of insulating yourself from the. downturn but I don't I'm not wor as. worried about that as long-term. consequences of AI because this is the. first technology which implies you can. actually virtually eliminate labor as. necessary for reducing output because. [snorts] you can use AI rather than. clarks you can use I know this is a long. way from being feasible, but robots. could replace process workers and then. suddenly something which employs 70% of.

the global population is no longer. necessary. And then what do you do in. that situation? What I've seen which I. respect coming out of the tech bros in. America is they're talking in terms of. universal basic income. >> You think a universal basic income is a. good idea? I we should probably explain. what that is. >> Yeah. Well, it's it's the state provides. everybody with enough money to stay. alive. That's the basic idea. Rather. than having to work for a living at the. minimum, you get paid an amount of money.

that means you can buy the goods and. services that are necessary to stay. alive. You don't necessarily prosper, but you get enough to survive. And so. that's the idea of UBI. Now, at the. moment, to survive, you got to have a. job. And like that guy you mentioned is. working at three three jobs right now. if he got a UBI, he wouldn't have to. work at those three jobs. He might work. at one or he might actually consider his. own business possibilities in that. situation. So, I think universal basic. income is a necessity given what.

robotics and AI can do to employment. Every time I've tried to improve. something in my life, like my. businesses, my health, my relationships, I've noticed that the biggest shifts. have come from being better informed. And when it comes to our health, most of. us know very, very little. So when our. team was approached about partnering. with function health, it felt very much. aligned. Their team has developed a way. of giving you a full 360deree view of. your health, many of the things that are. going on in your body in the form of. different tests. You do one blood draw. and it gives you access to over 160 lab.

results, hormones, heart health, inflammation, stress, toxins, the whole. picture. I use it and so have many of my. team members. >> You sign up and you schedule your test. and once you're done, you get a little. report like the one I have here. I can. see my in-range results, my out of range. results, and there's a little AI. function, too. So, if I have any. questions about my out of range results, I can just go in there and ask it any. question I want. And these tests are. backed by doctors and thousands of hours. of research. >> It's $365 for a yearly membership. Go to. functionhealth.com/doac.

and use the code DOAC25. for $25 off your membership. This is. something that I've made for you. I. realized that the direio audience are. strivvers. Whether it's in business or. health, we all have big goals that we. want to accomplish. And one of the. things I've learned is that when you aim. at the big big big goal, it can feel. incredibly psychologically uncomfortable. because it's kind of like being stood at. the foot of Mount Everest and looking. upwards. The way to accomplish your. goals is by breaking them down into tiny.

small steps. And we call this in our. team the 1%. And actually this. philosophy is highly responsible for. much of our success here. So what we've. done so that you at home can accomplish. any big goal that you have is we've made. these 1% diaries and we released these. last year and they all sold out. So I. asked my team over and over again to. bring the diaries back but also to. introduce some new colors and to make. some minor tweaks to the diary. So now. we have a better range for you. So, if.

you have a big goal in mind and you need. a framework and a process and some. motivation, then I highly recommend you. get one of these diaries before they all. sell out once again. And you can get. yours at the diary.com. And if you want the link, the link is in. the description below. >> And you think up to 50% of working-class. jobs could be wiped out because of AI. and robotics. >> Yeah. >> I mean, that's um that's been a. prediction from the leaders of some of. the biggest companies in AI. I heard the. the leader of Anthropic uh recently say. the same thing. thinks 50% of jobs could.

be wiped out. I think the shocking thing. that we've talked a lot about in the. show is just, >> you know, there's been other sort of. economic or industrial revolutions in. the past that have caused for job. displacement. >> Yeah. >> But none, I would argue at this speed. >> No. And none that can replace virtually. everything. I see one of there's a. there's a classic story I read back when. I was uh talking about the global. financial crisis uh came out of the New. York Times article where they went to. interview workers in an air conditioning. factory. And there was one woman they. found there whose job it was to place a.

thermouple inside the air conditioning. units as they went past. So there's. 3,000 of these going past her a day. She's just placing one of these. thermouples where it needs to go inside. the circuitry of the air conditioning. unit. And she said, "You don't have to. love your job as long as it pays you. money." It was totally boring job. That's all she's doing. The thing is the. reason she got that job was she couldn't. make a machine to replace her because. the air conditioning units don't. necessarily end up precisely at the same. point. To make a machine that would do.

that is really difficult. Now if you. train a robot on it, the robot. perception can ultimately get to the. point where the robot can place that. piece inside there. That particular. unskilled job disappears. So people who. work in jobs like that no longer have a. possibility of getting a job. I think. even, you know, Anthropic released a. report. Anthropic are the makers of. Claude. They released a report saying. that entry- level positions, they're. seeing a 13% decline already in people. getting those entry- level jobs. And. actually, as an employer, someone that.

spends literally all last night, I was. looking through our inbox, our. recruitment inboxes at candidates and. talent. >> I have noticed myself changing. I've. noticed that um. people that I would have given roles to. maybe six months ago, >> yeah, >> I now have to think long and hard about. whether there's going to be technology. that can do those exact roles instead. And it's it was really shocking thing. I. was saying to the team last night at. like 1:00 a.m. in the office, I was. like, this is a prime example of a. candidate. I was looking at this. particular candidate that 6 months ago I.

would have bitten their hand off but now. >> I have to pause because my innovation. team in the corner of the office they're. they're able to do that now with these. AI agents instead and so I am you know. you hear a lot about the theoretical. impact of AI. >> but you're actually making the decision. yourself. >> and then it's theory it's theory it's. this thing on my Twitter feed like blah. blah blah whatever you hear on a podcast. you go blah blah blah whatever and then. you find yourself actually behaving that. way. >> Your behavior is changing and you're.

going, "Oh, it's very hard to know the. types of people to hire into our. company." And I've kind of almost. segmented them into these two groups. where you've got people that have very. deep expertise. Yeah, >> I'd say it's three groups. People that. have very, very deep expertise on a. particular thing, you know, like my CFO. Group number two, I'd say, are people. that are AI proficient, >> who can actually handle this stuff and. be the people who manage the agents. >> Yes. and they can redesign our workflows. across every department in the company. to be agentic. >> um the word about AI agents that's kind.

of like the word you use so agentic. workflows and then the third group of. people are people who have skills that. are highly beneficial human to human and. in in real life so like humanto human. sales people that deal with. relationships. >> and are very good at it. >> and are very good at it because there. are still a certain type of sale where. people want to meet the person shake. their hand and say okay you're. responsible for this deal. >> we're still in a situation where people. don't want agents to do that. Those are. like the three groups. What I didn't say. is young people who have.

>> just come out of university, maybe don't. know anything about agents. They don't. have the deep expertise yet. >> Yeah. >> And when you look at the data, we'll. throw some of the data up on the screen. It appears that these sort of entrylevel. white collar jobs are the ones that are. right now suffering. Yeah. Some of these. investment companies would hire like. three or 400 analysts to look at um. companies and make decisions. That is. one example of a of a role that's very. at risk now. We've got an investment. fund. We need one analyst, Molly. 6. months ago, we were interviewing more.

analysts. We now realize that we just. need Molly, and we need to give Molly. AI. >> Yeah. >> And she can set up I think Molly said to. me yesterday when I left the office at. when she left the office at midnight, she's now set up three agents, these. error agents. >> as her team. Those would have been three. people. >> Well, I I saw a demo of that. Like I've. developed a software package called. Ravvel uh which I've got one programmer. for and I I teach an online course as. well and I give Ravel as part of that. online course and one of the members of. the course said he's using an AI to. build RAL models and he's also using an.

AI to write code behind Ravvel and he. gave a demo this a couple of days ago. and you know I watched it happen on. screen as he built a model a simulation. system and it was messy on one stage but. it produced the correct mathemat atics. So he's showing you can actually he he's. trying to tell me that we should get my. main programmer to learn to drive agents. to do the whole thing. Now my main. programmer has said look there's things. that I can do that an AI cannot do. He's. one of your highly gifted people. And he.

said it wouldn't be worth my while to. have me telling an AI what to do because. what I lose in terms of my own. initiative I can't I just sort of. balance out. It's really a okay. But he. hires a junior programmer. than the. junior programmer would be one who's. trained to drive the AI. >> I I do think programmers are fine. Actually, there was some stats that I. saw the other day that showed there's. been this huge demand and people trying. to hire programmers. It's interesting. because you hear stats from Spotify. Spotify saying, "We haven't written a. human line of code since December.". >> And I'm very good friends with the guys.

at Spotify. I was actually with the CEO. the other day, a couple of weeks ago in. in Austin. And you you hear that and I. did check that with them. That's true. >> So, you assume that that means we don't. need programmers anymore. But if you. think about like Jeban's paradox, when. something becomes, you know, Jeb's. paradox is the old analogy, [clears throat]. >> cheaper, you use more of it. Yeah. >> Yeah. So like when coal became cheaper, people were worried that maybe the coal. industry was out of business or trains, whatever. But actually what ended up. happening is people just drove more. trains and they used them for other. things like transport. And the same. applies, I think, for AI. When.

>> creating technology becomes easier, every company starts using more. technology. So media companies, lawyers, you name the company, executive. assistants, they all become coders. And. actually the demand for highly for. really anyone who knows how to code or. program it, >> we're seeing it. It's exploding. >> Yeah. >> But I just think the job disruption in. the near for most people is going to be. pretty. >> Yeah. I mean there's ways in which AI. and robotics should be welcomed. >> because it means the possibility exists.

and it's only a possibility that we can. no longer have to be exploited to get an. income because if you look at the. Marxist attitude towards capitalism as a. cap workers capitalists exploit the. workers. Okay. Um the real world is. we've been exploiting energy. >> mutually both labor and capital exploits. energy. We could have a future where we. don't have to work for a living and. therefore you could do what you want to. do for a living. That it's a Star Trek. future. That's that's the possibility.

that it promises. But at the same time, uh it could actually eliminate the jobs. that people currently rely upon. And. what I fear is we have two. possibilities. We have a future where. Star Trek's high future where you have. replicators that make the goods and we. consume and and we all live a energy. abundant life. uh or the hunger games. where there's one little elite that gets. has all the robots and lives extremely. well and we tolerate and oppress the. vast majority and they end up you know.

hunger game entertainment those are the. two possibilities we face. >> I do think the cost of goods and. services will come down which is great. >> I think robotics you know if Elon is. right and I often say with Elon like his. timelines are not always accurate but he. does tend to deliver magic. >> he ultimately delivers but it you know. he always overpromises and delivers. later than he plans. >> And if he's right about when he says. there's going to be more humanoid. robots, his Optimus robots, than humans, and he says also in his predictions that.

there's going to be no need to study to. be a surgeon because the robots are. going to be so much more uh advanced and. better than any living surgeon, that. would imply that surgery and other sort. of medical diagnoses and procedures are. going to be incredibly cheap, incredibly. quick. Great. >> How do you pay for them? That's the next. question. Yeah. So, yeah. How do you pay. for them? And do people want to, you. know, >> it's also it's also the physical. requirements. I mean, the amount of. copper inside a robot, you're talking, you know, several kilos per robot. Um,

do we have enough to produce 8 billion. of them? >> And maybe, you know, surgeons do much. more than just operate. >> Yeah. >> There's a human element to the medical. profession, which I think is sometimes. unappreciated. Like, I would I don't. know if I'm quite ready to go talk to a. robot about my health yet. Maybe I'll. adjust. I wanted to come back to. something you actually said earlier. You. talked about Bitcoin briefly. I've heard. you say that you think Bitcoin is going. to zero. >> Yeah. >> Okay. This is worrying. I think I have. some Bitcoin. [laughter]. >> You're an economist. You're saying that. Bitcoin is going to zero. Why?

>> Because ultimately because of its. reliance upon energy. I mean I you know. you Max you Max Kaiser and Stacy. Herbert. Have you met them at all? No. They were sort of the original. proletizers for Bitcoin and they're now. living in I think El Salvador um which. is adopted Bitcoin as a form of. currency. When they told me about. Bitcoin, I could have bought it for a. pound a bitcoin which would have been I. would have been bloody would be. wealthier than you if I'd done that. The. reason I didn't was they explained that. the way that the public ledger is kept. safe is that it takes too much energy to.

break it. So each transaction requires. 10 minutes of computer processing time. globally by the looks of it to actually. create an extra bitcoin and that means. it's too expensive for somebody to try. to break the ledger. That means it's got. a huge requirement for energy use and I. believe knowing what I know from climate. scientists that at some point we're. going to realize we're using far too. much energy on the planet. We've got to.

cut the energy consumption and the two. easiest things to cut out to reduce. energy consumption are cryptocurrencies. and international travel. >> But aren't you saying that, you know, nuclear energy is becoming vogue again? And they're talking a lot, you know, about. >> it's the amount of time it takes to. build that stuff. I mean, China is. building nuclear power stations at a. hell of a rate and much much cheaper, more cheaply than America is doing. >> Solar has become a big topic of. conversation. >> Yeah. Again, there's a guy called Simon. Machau, whom I recommend you get in.

touch with as well. And Simon is an. engineer who claims that we simply don't. have the physical minerals necessary to. support a completely solar and. wind-based. energy system. He's got people who. criticize his analysis definitely, but. we still are using far more physical. resources than we're aware of at the. moment on the planet. And the. availability of various critical. elements that we need for the system we. have right now, it's much less abundant.

than we would like it to be. So, a lot. of these things about, you know, robotics taken over, do we have the. minerals for it? Solar power, do we have. the minerals? The answer is is not is. not yes. Okay. Sometimes the answer is. no. Other times it's it's dubious. But I. think that energy requirement alone is a. problem. >> You're saying that we're going to have. we're going to have to cut back on our. energy consumption. >> But I mean the direction of travel has. been we've been able to produce more and. more and more and more energy. >> and we're dumping it into the. environment. The planet the problem.

about the use of energy is it's. happening on a planet. Okay. Can the. biosphere cope with the waste that we. dump into it as a result of using that. energy? And that is something which. economists are completely stupid on. beyond stupid. They've trivialized the. dangers of the amount of resources we. use and the amount of energy we use. So. I don't think that energy future is. possible on this biosphere at the. moment. It's possible in the future if. we get off the biosphere. So in that. sense I'm even more of a space cadet.

than Elon Musk is. I think we have to. plan to take production off planet, but. while we're constrained on the. biosphere, the biosphere's constraints. will stop us using as much energy as we. used wish to use. >> What are you what are your closing. statements on this whole situation with. the war and Iran and everything that's. going on from a geopolitical. perspective? >> Basic thing is our system is far more. fragile than we've convinced oursel that. it is. And we can make observations. about potential futures which presume a. robustness we don't have. And if that.

robustness is destroyed either by. military conflict or by overextending. what we put into the biosphere, then we. can fall off what's called the Senica. cliff. We can go from an abundant future. to a collapse. >> And what would you say the people at. home should be doing to course correct. the path that you think we're on? >> Stop electing fools. Um, electing Trump was an enormous. mistake. We've got politicians who. follow what's called neoliberal.

political philosophies. Therefore, put. us in this problem. It hasn't worked. We. need to reverse back to having a. humanoriented and physically realistic. view of how the economy managed should. be managed and how the biosphere should. be managed. We have to take care of our. home and in a central sense we're. destroying our home and thinking we can. keep on doing that indefinitely. We. can't. Our poem is planet earth. Planet. earth has got physical restraints. We.

haven't respected them. Planet earth. will tell us what it thinks of that this. century. >> And which leaders do you think we should. be electing? Do you think we should be. electing? >> I don't think I I think even lifting. leaders itself is a mistake because what. we then do is end up getting we we. pander to narcissists. We pander to. people who believe they can solve all. our problems. We end up with. megalomaniacs making decisions. If you. look back at where Athenian democracy. came from, Athenanian democracy didn't.

use elections. It used a process of like. random number generators to select. intelligent people to fulfill essential. roles in those societies. And they they. weren't even people you got to know by. name in that sense. We know Trump here, we know Star here, we have Albanesei. over here. We end up getting narcissists. and megalomaniacs. directing us and they're the last people. you need to make decisions. >> When you're thinking about your own. money as an economist, what are you. doing to protect your.

>> I'm not doing much. I mean, I I've been. I've been a a crusader for reforming. economic theory. For my whole life, I've. sort of neglected this side of things to. my detriment, I've got to say. Um, but I. really am focused on what's sustainable. for everybody rather than what I can. make as my own cut. And I don't think. we've got a sustainable economy at the. moment. We have a philosophy of. economics which leads to breakdowns. >> I'm asking that cuz I've got so many. friends and listeners that ask me often.

like, should I be buying a house right. now? Do you think I should be investing. in gold? Do you think I should be saving. my money? Should I be, I don't know, investing in technology companies? >> Yeah. >> And I'm wondering if you had a. perspective for them. >> Not on that. No. like I've I've really. left that area alone. I'm I'm actually. looking at the overall system and saying. how do we make the system sustainable so. that people can live within it and what. we've got is an unsustainable system and. you're asking me how do people survive. within an unsustainable system? Answer. is they don't. We always think we can do. something at the individual level to. cope with what's happening in the system.

around us that only works if the system. around us is stable. >> What is a better system then? Uh I think. I think what China has done is a better. in a better direction. They have a they. have a collective focus as well as an. individual focus. >> What's their system called? >> It's called communist. >> So you think communism is better than. capitalism? >> I think a system which reflects the need. for a cohesive society as well as. individual gain is needed and the system. in China is closer to that than the.

system in America. in in China. Listen, I don't know a ton about this, but they. have a leader who stays in power and. >> that's one that's the potential weakness. >> and suppresses the people's decision-m. entrepreneurialism. >> Equally, you've got a system to get into. the Communist Party. You've got to have. uh highly you've got to be educated to. get in and you have to perform to some. extent in the region in which you begin. your role. >> But you're not saying you think the West. should adopt communism, are you? No, I'm. saying that is west should adopt a.

system which reflects the need for a. cohesive society. >> Is that socialism? >> Socialism is closer to it. I mean I the. words are all tainted. Okay. If you go. back, you know, do you eat Cadbury's. chocolate? >> I try not to. >> You have, haven't you? Okay. Cadbury's. was a socialist enterprise. Okay. It was. formed as a a belief we have one who. could work as the best possible. situation while also selling a. profitable product. Mondreon in Spain is. another cooperative started by a. Catholic priest. Uh of all things we.

tend to be very binary in the west. We. say you either have competition or you. have cooperation. Okay. Well, you need. to be more like the east in the sense of. the idea of ying and nang. You have to. have both. Okay, cooperation and. competition. >> And so that view is the closest thing is. socialism. >> The closest to socialism. And what China. has done that better than Russia. You go. back to the USSR. uh that was they they. were disastrous in terms of product. development. China's been extremely. successful on that front. They've. learned from the mistakes of being too.

centralized and too top down in Russia. to have both the top down and the bottom. up dynamic going on. >> What's wrong with capitalism? And. capitalism is what the UK and the US. have adopted as their sort of economic. model. >> It's seeing competition absolutely. ruling and ignoring cooperation. Now the. real the successful society combines. both. You have cooperation, you also. have competition. And we've pushed it. far too far in the competitive end and. not enough in the cooperative. And what. comes out of that as well is this cooper.

competitive tends to be short-term. focus. What can I make a profit out of. in time that the money that I've. borrowed is I'm going to be able to make. more of a profit than the interest I'm. paying on the money I've I've created. And if the interest if the longer it. takes to get the the repayment, the less. likely you are to make the investment. So what you get is a focus upon. short-term with just a market system. whereas with the long term you say. what's going to last for 100 years and. like and what that means is you build. the infrastructure for the long term.

while you allow competition to occur in. the short term. It's getting the balance. right. We've got the balance extremely. wrong. >> Professor Steve, thank you. I highly. recommend people go check out your. YouTube channel where you make videos. all the time about what's going on in. the world. to give your opinion on. economic issues, political issues, the. Iran war. So, if people are listening. and they want to learn more from. Professor Steve, then look down below. and you should see his YouTube channel. linked um next to our name because we're. going to try and collaborate on this. post and I'll put you the the link to. your channel in the description below.

for anyone that wants to check you out. and subscribe. It's so fascinating, especially the stuff about around the. raw materials coming out the. straightforward because I really had no. idea. I it's just it's quite staggering. to me that we're so dependent on one. region of the world and I think from. watching your videos over the last. couple of weeks, >> it's really made me understand the. unintended consequences of war. generally, but specifically this war in. Iran. >> Um, so thank you for turning the lights. on for me. I really, really appreciate. this and I hope we can meet again soon. and have a conversation and hopefully, you know, this all resolves itself in a.

way that's good for everybody. >> I hope so. I I'm having my 73rd birthday. tomorrow. Oh, I might have 74th as well, but I think there's a question mark over. that now. >> Well, I did hear it was your birthday. tomorrow. >> I think the team have gotten you a. little something. >> Okay. >> Happy birthday [laughter]. to you. >> I'm embarrassed. >> Happy birthday. >> Oh my god. [laughter]. >> Happy birthday. >> My god. Thank you.

Happy birthday to [singing] you. >> Holy hell. I'm missing. >> Thank you. Should I blow the candles. out? >> Yes, you should. >> Okay, you get a wish. >> You blew them all out, so you get a. wish. [laughter]. >> Well, I wish for peace in the Middle. East. >> Okay, >> that's probably the main thing to say. about right now. >> That is a gorgeous cake. I have to say. >> it's a marvelous cake. Yeah, >> that's marking our own homework, but. [laughter]. >> this better be eaten by the crew cuz I'm. not going to eat all this myself. Okay, you want to get out a knife and start. slicing up? My god,

>> thank you. Thank you so much. We're. done. >> Thank you. >> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm. where they know exactly what video you. would like to watch next based on AI and. all of your viewing behavior. And the. algorithm says that this video is the. perfect video for you. It's different. for everybody looking right now. Check. this video out and I bet you you might. love.