Why Young Men Who Elected Trump Are Turning on Him | The Daily Beast Podcast

Okay, so they were attracted to his celebrity, his confidence, his promises. So they've turned against Trump. They are turning against him. We are picking up and the focus groups and the surveys, the significant disapproval of the way that ISIS currently, you know, doing their job in terms of ripping people out of cars. and homes, etc., providing additional kind of instability. There and I think the same thing goes for. the actions in the Middle East.

I'm Joanna Coles, I'm. the chief content officer of the Daily Beast, and you are hopefully. listening to the Daily Beast podcast in the bath, which is my favorite place. to listen to podcasts. But if you're not, I hope you're earning your clothes, cooking your supper, walking your dog, whatever. I hope we're making your chores a little bit more interesting and today. we have a guest. who has talked to thousands of young men about why they voted for Donald Trump, but now appear to be falling out of love with him.

It is, of course, the pollster, the man based at the Harvard Kennedy School of Politics, John Della Volpe, who literally scours the country for young people. to unburden themselves about their political anxieties. All right. So very excited to be joined by John Della Volpe, I thank you. This is your virgin outing up for the Daily Beast podcast. I've been waiting and waiting and here I am.

So thanks so much for having me, Joanne. Okay, well, we're absolutely thrilled to have you. And what I want to kick off with, especially as you are, you know, a world expert on young people and politics is. what are they making of the Trump administration five months in. Well, let's kind of set the stage and take one small step back, if that's okay. No. Oh, come on, just. Let's take a step backwards. We want to lean forward. Listen. Let's lean. Forward. Let's lean forward.

But let's appreciate the fact that in some ways, I believe younger people were responsible for putting Donald Trump. in office to start with, specifically younger men. Okay. There was basically a 10 or 12 point decline. among younger men, 18 to 29 year olds over four years. In terms of their support for Biden, Harris compared to Trump. and with, election Joe, it's so close. Specifically in those blue blue all states,

if one out of 100 people change their minds. Kamala Harris is pregnant today. Okay, so. 1% of votes that relied on 1% of votes. In Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Yeah. And I think it was an ongoing, strategy. by Donald Trump for many years to expand his franchise targeting young men. Okay. So that's number one, the importance of of of younger people, both in 24 but also 25 heading for number one.

Number two. Listen, I've done a lot of polling at Harvard. and at my own company and in other places. And right now more younger people are concerned. that Donald Trump is doing more harm to them than good. Okay. That's essentially what the report card looks like, you know, 5 or 6 months into this. So he was able to expand the franchise several months ago after the election. But in terms of day to day governing, younger people are quickly, I think, asking important questions like.

I thought this was going to improve my economic standing. What about me? So that's kind of where younger people are today, I think. Well, I'm amazed that they wouldn't have looked at Donald. Trump won and drawn some conclusions from that. To what are they most concerned about? Well, I think to your point about drawn conclusions from Donald Trump. One so that's on point. But in many ways, we're talking about people who are 18 to 24 years old today,

which means that their, their, their primary, I think, source of kind of political identity. or values were essentially driven over the last 4 or 5 years. Okay. So yes, Donald Trump was president during Covid, but it was the impact of Covid and then a challenging time. exiting out of Covid at a time when prices, were were increasing. on a significant level, specifically for the most vulnerable people.

So I think that's just the context in terms of younger people today, people in their late 20s and early 30s who do have that. memory of Trump one were more likely support Democrats. Right. So what the concerned about is, is honestly the same to all of us. I think a concern about it is asking for the man some stability. in their lives, specifically related to economics and finances. It's really all about that. But I do think that younger people, they just, you know,

they have a different lens. So many younger people I meet in my focus groups, it's virtually not a focus group. I can't conduct or assemble Joanna anywhere around the country, where I don't feel five people who are. in the process of had been or are currently homeless. or or or incredibly anxious about next month's rent. So it's it's really cuts to like the core. of their basic identity and humanity.

And that's the level I think, of concern that most young people I talk about, tell me about it, regardless of what economic strata of the red. they're all concerned about economic anxiety. So what was it about Donald Trump that managed to convince them. that if they voted for him, they would feel financially or. they would be financially more successful and feel more stable and shared this, back pack of anxiety they seem to be lugging around with them. I think that's exactly the perfect metaphor.

They they carry this significant weight on their backs. that what they were looking for. And again, he didn't win all young voters. He just did. He just did better not. Did enough. To win the election. Okay. Just like he did in 2016. Right. The magic number is for Democrats to win. They need to get to 60% okay, of the youth vote. The data here. says, Kamala Harris got somewhere between, you know, early 50s and in the high 50s. So not quite there. But, this is a generation who feels betrayed by institutions.

Okay. Don't all generations feel betrayed by institutions? I felt betrayed by institutions when I was in my early 20s. Isn't it just. isn't that just part of being young? I think certainly there's our element of it, Joanna, but I don't remember. ever stressing out about the ability to have a home, ever. You know, when I was young, my first job in politics was 100. hundred dollars a week and a place to stay.

So, yes, there certainly is an anti-authoritarian. institutions, an entire institutional aspect of it. But when, when, when I speak to younger people, they tell me their education. They don't feel prepared for life. after high school, whether it's college, the workforce or something else. They, they, they, they talk about the state of capitalism today. Right? And how fewer and fewer, fewer people are able to achieve big things. Well, but many people are struggling just to have, again,

some basic stability in their lives. So those are some examples. And and the other thing I think it's important to understand about. this newer cohort of voters, Gen Z voters, is that they don't have a living memory. Joanna. Not a lot of which means they don't. Also remember when America kind of came together and it was united. under under under one cast, and we're connected. They don't have that memory as well. So this is a generation that's grown up again.

Almost a third of their waking lives was impacted by Covid. You could still see the significant detrimental effects. around their social circles, their their the level of loneliness, the depression. Today, they look at the institutions. They feel like they're hurt, how they're hurting more. They help aged. And they were looking for Donald Trump. as someone who was a. defending the institutions, but someone who could use his strength, okay, to advocate. for people who are economically anxious.

Now, what he said is obviously different, I think, than what he's doing, you know, but it was really about the strength of his persona, I think different than some specific policies. That was what was attractive specifically around younger men. Okay. So they were attracted to his celebrity, his confidence, his promises. And to your point, this might have been the first election for some of them. Although a lot of them voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Right? Coming out of, out of Covid. So they've turned against Trump. They are turning against him now. It's one thing to measure public opinion, live in. at this time when there's not a clear opponents. and there's not an ongoing campaign, but they're clearly overwhelmingly dissatisfied. Right. His approval ratings among younger people are in the 30s. And is that the lowest of all the groups? I think it is. Yes, I think it is. The age group, 18 to 29 year old.

In most polling, it would be the lowest among all the groups for sure. Okay. So they're feeling anxious. They've got financial insecurity. What do they care about Iran? Do they care about the border? What are the issues for them that they're most disappointed on? Because goodness knows, Donald Trump has done. what Steve Bannon advised, which is just to flood the zone. So he's flooded the zone with everything. Are there specific issues that they are most concerned about?

We conduct focus groups almost every week with younger voters. I'd be lying to you if you know most of the comments are around domestic issues. Okay. And not necessarily about immigration. But again, it's his economic concerns extends to health care, mental health care. and those sorts of things. The degree to which immigration is a focus. It is the instability the younger people in the Harvard survey. could see and believe that there is more stability at the border. Okay. And that is something that they kind of appreciate.

and gave relatively good grades on kind of year to year. However, we are picking up and the focus groups and the surveys, the significant disapproval of the way that ISIS currently, you know, doing their job in terms of ripping people out of cars. and homes, etc., providing additional kind of instability. There and I think the same thing goes for. the actions in the middle East.

We just, conducted a poll over the last several days, and I think over 60% of the people believe that the actions in Iran. as of last Thursday, when we finished a survey, would make the situation. more and more and not less. chaotic and unstable. A plurality indicated that it's making them. kind of more anxious, and they're just kind of concerned about that future. So there's a Donald Trump campaign to younger people.

to break up the system, but to bring some order rather quickly. And I think younger people are saying. there's anything but order right now in the US and around the world. Were these people who grew up on Donald. Trump, on television as the big boss in The Apprentice. I think that is the cohort from 2020 and 2026. You know, the younger people are much more, impacted, I. think, from from the last four years of, of.

of the Biden-Harris administration, increasing prices, one. And Donald Trump, as the internet. celebrity influencer hanging out with the of on the network boys. Dana White that kind of Trump okay I don't I think it's a slightly different. The macho Trump and which I guess we're talking. more specifically here than about young men, are we? Because I don't think young women were as impacted by SEO violence. And Charlie Kirk. No, certainly more young men than young women. But,

it is worth noting that Trump actually did. a few points better with younger women. Even with Kamala Harris on top of the ticket. than, you know, Joe Biden did better with that group. And again, I think from a lot of the younger women I talked. to who were undecided in the final weeks of that campaign, it was about the same thing. It was it was about dealing with the economic anxiety, that a lot of the young women on the fence who I think ultimately moved to Trump,

it was a lot, but it was it was a significant number. You know, 2 or 3% in a close election is meaningful. Told me that they, were smart enough and intelligent enough to know that even. if voting for Kamala Harris, it didn't necessarily mean. that reproductive rights would be restored right away. Right? That this was a vote in their short term economic interest. So much more progress for the younger men. But still, we we can't deny the last election. we did better with some younger women as well.

Because the single most important economic decision. a woman will make is when she decides to have her first child. And anything that makes that more difficult. to have any control over that, that particular decision. You know, it's just astonishing that young women would think that, a man who put in three conservative justices. to the Supreme Court would somehow be in their interests. But it sounds like young people are beginning to rethink that decision.

They certainly are. They certainly are. And again, this is this is in a vacuum. And, you know, I had just finished a few dozen 60 hours. of in-depth conversations with younger people around the country. over the last several months. And it doesn't necessarily mean that because they are souring on, Donald Trump. or which many are, it doesn't necessarily mean that Democrats,

can rest on their laurels. Right. Let's talk about that. Because who are you hearing from. in these focus groups that young people are warming to? On the Democrat side, I. Think there's a long, long way to go. And virtually and most of them have extremely low name recognition. I think when we talk about potential 2028 presidential candidates, you know, you. just hear the names that we're actually capable of in the news.

And the days before the focus group. Right. So you hear about, obviously, Bernie Sanders, although he's likely not a candidate. Right. But you hear Pete Buttigieg, who with Sanders has been spending time. on podcasts for years, Gavin Newsom, you hear, Gretchen Whitmer in certain. parts of the country, you hear Wes Moore, you know, you hear Cory Booker. They're really part of my focus group, you know, So AOC. I have not honestly, I have not or that has not organic organically come up. in, in any of my recent conversations with younger men.

Right. You know, she I don't think that she has the, wide ranging name recognition that older folks, you know, might expect based upon how much we talk about her. Right. So, so certainly she has a very passionate following among younger, progressive folks, but at this stage, it's a far away, you know, it's a it's a. it's a long way away from Martin kind of having a national persona.

that can connect to the kinds of voters that, we've been talking about. It's possible, but it's a long way. So I just want to be sure. So your focus groups are on, on, on. all genders, I guess I should say they're not just on men, correct? Of course. Yes, I know some projects, some projects, you know, are more focused than others. I just finished a significant effort. I'm just looking at younger men. Which is right. Yes, right. The Sam.

Okay. You go to Sam project? Yes. I want to come on to the Sam project. All right. So that's interesting that nobody is registering AOC. So tell us about the Sam project, which was specifically research into young men. Yes. And again, I'm not searching this was I just to just to clarify about AOC, it's. not like I was offering up different names and asking for responses. I'll just tell you what I got kind of incoming. Yeah, but I. Didn't get any spontaneous people saying, oh, AOC,

she's the younger version of Bernie's. And as so especially got to be nice to my oligarchy tool. Yeah. No, not not that I recall. Yeah. The Sam project is, is, I think the, the first and most significant effort. to research deep research. and connect with the very cohort of voters that, as I said earlier, responsible for Donald Trump becoming president. Donald Trump spent over $20 million in the final weeks. of that campaign to connect with with younger men.

As much as I study younger voters, I could see the, I could see the the results. I knew that it was coming. I felt like I still need to understand kind of where their values, what. their values were, where they're coming from, their anxieties, their hopes. Because I don't think that we can rebuild trust, with them. I don't think they can build trust in our democracy without that kind of effort. Research is only one part of it.

However, there's a significant effort aimed at understanding their media habits. and to find opportunities to kind of connect with them over. the next couple of years to see which tactics and strategies and messages will, be meaningful heading into the midterm elections and the presidential in 2018. But, John, isn't it always the same thing? Isn't it always the economy, stupid? It is largely driven by the economy, but. if they were that easy, I think Democrats would be doing better with younger math.

The economic anxiety. We talked about cuts at their very identity. Okay. About what it means to be a man today and a provider. And to many young men, if they can't feel good about themselves, if they can't provide for themselves, clearly don't feel comfortable. providing for a potential family and home and children. Okay. And that eats at them every day on one side, on the other side. of the conversation around modern masculinity,

they want to be vulnerable, but often feel mocked when they are too vulnerable. And that elicits and creates a sense of shame, which leads to, you know, anxiety, depression, and can lead them into some fairly dark places on the on the internet. So kind of what I believe is that. Democrats are to lecture less and listen more. And if you can kind of connect with with some of those nuances. about being a man today, then you're more likely to,

you know, be able to kind of persuade someone that your economic vision. is stronger than your opponent's economic vision. That's kind of what I believe, right? Poor man, poor, poor man. It's all saying the focus groups say, you know what? We collectively had a pretty good run, right? For, you know, few decades, a few centuries, don't you agree? Okay, I did okay. And what they say is. okay, don't burden me with a success.

that my father, grandfather, great great great grandfather had. Okay. My grandpa, my father. What? Painted houses? Okay. With no formal education. And today, with a college education, I may never be able to afford a house. Okay, so don't burden me with what you and your generation were able to accomplish. It's a different situation for me. That's what I hear back. That's what I hear back. Young men in particular,

responding to any of the men around Trump. Do you have research on how they think about JD Vance. Did like them, like, you know, Donald, basically, when I look at the monthly tracking that I'm doing, Elon Musk, Donald Trump, overall. approval ratings around around, you know, kind of hovering the same, you know, plus or -50 points. Again, it's not like there's this extreme love affair with Donald Trump. It's all relative. It's all relative. Okay. But.

but yeah, JD Vance. at this stage with this younger cohort, not exactly lightning, not lightning, not been trailing, you know, 10 or 15 points, perhaps some of that is because he's he's his last. No, no more people in the neutral category, I don't know. But he's not letting up with the younger man, that's for sure. And what about, Eric Trump who was saying recently. that the density of the Trumps will go on? Is that something that concerns young people or they or they don't care?

The one person who does come up organically. and a lot of my focus groups is Charlie Kirk. And the reason that that is happening is he. is someone obviously connected to Trump, who younger people see strength. And the fact that he shows up. on college campuses around the country on a regular basis. and basically takes questions, you know, from, sometimes quite hostile. audience is something that young men don't necessarily always agree with,

but they respect him standing up for what he believes in, you know? And that is something that is, something they wish that they saw Democrats doing more often. The reason that they tell me that more Democrats don't go on, don't. choose to go on podcast, extended podcast is they say they're afraid. to wake up, you know, do something without a page of talking points. And when you do a, you know, hour or 2 or 3 hour podcast, talking points don't really help.

You need to be who you are, authentic and and vulnerable. And they don't see Democrats as fulfilling those callings and attributes right now. So they would rather Democrats behave more like Charlie Kirk. Oh, I don't think it's about his his positions. And certainly the things that he says and things about women. or the horrific thing he said, you know, about, mom Tammy over the past couple of days. Okay.

It's that he is not afraid to show up and to take questions. Okay. And they see straight to engage. He's not afraid to engage. Not afraid to engage with hostile with potential hostile audience. So let's talk about Zoran Mamdani, who just crushed. the Democratic primary for New York mayor, which wouldn't normally be of interest. to people outside New York, except that he clearly represents. a new kind of Democratic politician. What do you make of him, and what did you hear.

back from your from your audience about him? Oh, gosh. What are your observations about him? I spent a lot of time in New York City over the last six months, conducted thousands of interviews and dozen or so focus groups and. his magic, I think, was less about the label, the Democrat socialist label, and was much more about his intention to listen. Okay, that is what it was about.

I strongly, strongly believe that he went from zero, you know, to potentially. being the next mayor of New York City in just a handful of, of, of weeks or months. And as the as the campaign was closing, I was reminded of 2008, okay, in 2018, we saw over the course of several months we saw the parkland movement. Okay, you know, take over social media.

But it wasn't just about social media. It also impacted polling. Okay. And more importantly, Joanna, where the parkland students. showed up, people registered voting register to vote. Okay. And that was the precursor to AOC shocking the world. You know, in 2018, in her primary, we saw the same things happening. But but the traditional models weren't able to pick that up. If you saw the analysis over the weekend, there was a significant. spike in voter registration over the last several days.

So what my nominee was able to do was he was able to listen. to the core economic concerns of New Yorkers. It was offer he was able to offer relatively simple to understand. I'm not sure it's simple to finance. Okay, but simple to understand policies that are aligned. in some cases with 70, 80 or 90% of New Yorkers. Okay. In terms of specifically around the kind of additional mental health. services, you know, to, to,

to the police. force and other things, it wasn't about television or mailers, it was about social media, you know, and being kind of being present. And it was about suggesting that people not just vote for him, but organized. march, walk, go door to door and register their friends. So, that is, I think, kind of what was happening here. Listen, I'm not sure that that exports, okay, that those policies. export to every congressional district that's at large. You know, that's, you know, at risk.

But what should export. is investing in listening, over lecturing. I do think that when I watch those debates, I think there was a lot of lecturing, certainly by, you know, Governor Cuomo and a few of the other candidates. Frankly, the thing I was struck by, too, was just. that Mamdani has a very light energy. He's sunny. He's the sort of smiling character, and he's having fun campaigning. Whereas Andrew Cuomo looked like he had the weight of the world on him.

He was angry about being forced to resign. and that the energy between the two of them, you just felt them. Dani's energy was sunny and about the future. Even though his policies may be impossible and he's making promises. he can't possibly keep, I mean, goodness knows how he's going to make the busses fast. I mean, said the busses will be free and fast. I mean, I've no idea how you make the bus. his first, and I suspect he doesn't either.

But it was an interesting how he showed up. Felt fresh. It felt fresh. It felt new. And I think what people, like about Donald Trump, too, is he's not a traditional politician. He doesn't stick to talking points. He has his crazy weave. People find it amusing. And both he and Domi have a sense of humor. I mean, whatever you think of Andrew Cuomo's, record as governor. We had him on the podcast. We did a long interview with him. He has zero sense of humor about himself,

or at least not one that he's prepared to let people share. And that also feels important for a candidate that you can have a laugh. with these people. I mean, do you remember when people used to say, oh, the reason George Bush got in. was because people wanted to have a beer with him. We certainly it's been too long since we found that kind of that joyful warrior. And I think that is really kind of what, his identity be became. And clearly it was captivating. And to connect it to the first part of our conversation, the three age groups.

that voted in the highest numbers last week in order. 18 to 24 year olds, 25 to 29 year olds and 30 to 34 year olds, they all voted everybody, every other age group older than that. And that is why the polling missed this, because it's hard to model. something that hadn't ever happened before. One. And and I think that is also why sometimes we don't fully appreciate.

the power of Donald Trump on in elections when he's on the ballot. People who generally don't turnout like the younger people in New York City, the turnout for transformative figures. who are a, who are a, a danger to the status quo, you know, and I think that's what each of those two, folks have in common. Well, there's no question that, Zoran Mamdani has set off a wave of panic. in both the Republicans and the Democrats in New York.

It'll be super interesting to see what happens. I looked at the breakdown of how you described the various voting blocs. and I think he came out as angry striver when I was trying. to match my own motivations against the various people. And according to you, I would be living in the outer boroughs. But I'm definitely I'm living in Manhattan, but I'm still an angry strife. Not a pragmatic progressive in any way. I, I should be a pragmatic progressive. But actually, right now I feel pretty angry about it.

You know, someone sent me yesterday a video of a man. on a street with a little outside, cooking pot that looked from the Third World, and he was literally cooking fish in the middle of her street. I mean, it was just it. And this was not a kind of barbecue, in advance of July the 4th. It was literally someone cooking fish. on the street because it looked like they were living on the street. It was very disturbing. It was an image straight out of a of a third world world.

A third world city. Yeah. That doesn't feel that doesn't bode well for any incumbent in New York right now. No, I'm. going to be heading back to New York soon to do a bunch of local trips in Poland, you know? So, yeah, we can keep on chatting about it. Well, it's supposed to. Come into the studio then. Let's talk about it some more. So I found. John's observation that young people really admire Charlie Kirk, because he turns up on campuses and takes questions from hostile students.

Kind of interesting, because certainly when I was in college, that's what we expected people to do. I didn't know when it became so unusual that people would only speak to one side. or another anyway, we'll be back on Thursday. with a podcast with the great Michael Wolff, decoding the latest. on whatever's going on inside Trump's head. Until then, don't forget to subscribe to the Daily Beast podcast. Please leave us a comment in our YouTube channel. And don't forget to be a beast!

This podcast was produced by Devin Roger Reno, and myopic observers. have noticed the occasional hand come in to twist the microphone. That's Devin's hand and Anna von Essen, and it was edited by Jesse Millwood.