Why Young MAGA Men Are Turning on Trump: Top Pollster | The Daily Beast Podcast

There's one person that we know does concern Donald Trump. and certainly undermines him, and that's Jeffrey Epstein. The specter of Jeffrey Epstein from beyond the grave. At one point, his best friend, before they had a falling out. Does his name ever come up when you're talking to young people? It did. It came up. We did a focus group this past weekend, basically two promises. This young man, remembering. Right. One is, are you going to kind of give me a fighting chance, right.

To to to live my best life? And, you know, are you going to release the Epstein files? Literally. That is what he said. Those those two things. I'm Joanna Coles, this is the Daily Beast podcast. And today we're going to be talking about young men and how important. they were in helping Donald Trump get elected and how they feel about him. Now, ten months into his Trump. 2.0, who else to talk about this with?

But John Della Volpe? You may remember, he came on to the podcast in the summer, shedding light about poll numbers. He is the director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard, and he is here brimming with all the latest poll numbers. and deep, deep insight into what young men in particular. are feeling about their place in America today. So no more time to waste. John de la Volpi. Let's get into it.

So, John, we. haven't spoken since the death of Charlie Kirk. What have you been up to? I've been on the road as much as I possibly can. I mean, I'm on campus, you know, 1 or 2 days a week, but to do my job. Well, Joanna, I need to be out to America, right? So, I don't know. I've been to Atlanta. Saint Louis, Denver, a bunch of other places listening and talking to people. And there's been some significant reflections. Post Charlie Kirk. But really, I think.

what I'm picking up is this, like, strong feeling that the system is just broken. It's not working. Charlie Kirk was a vehicle for many young people, but there's an opportunity I'm hearing and picking up in America. for more people to do more listening, to empower. people who want to be a part of politics and trying to save this democracy. Do you think that turning Point USA. is going to have the same impact with a woman at its head? Charlie Kirk was a charismatic leader.

He was also a young man. Is it likely that Erika Kirk. can inspire the same kind of connection that her late husband did? Well, I wouldn't rule anything out. Okay. We find that if you if you take a step back, right, that younger men. in many cases are most some younger men, right. We're connected to Kirk. But a lot of other younger men were connected. to one of the most elderly politicians in America today, Bernie Sanders.

Right. So it's not always like 1 to 1 younger men, you know, connect with only other younger men who look like that. Right? So I wouldn't rule out the fact that younger men. can be kind of attracted to other kind of prominent figures. who may not be reflecting, their specific identity. Right. What's more important than that? Do you think they can? I mean, can you give me examples of where they are. related to a woman in this, in this sort of situation? Some of Aoki's supporters,

some of her, her strongest supporters are our younger men. So the question is, can younger conservative men okay, be attracted to to, to Erica Kirk? That's a different question. Okay. So, so so what does she represent? Does she represent having a space. where younger people can ask difficult questions? Okay.

And perhaps she won't likely have the same approach that he had, but could she still create that space where younger people feel comfortable. asking questions? Charlie Kirk, you know, wasn't Charlie Kirk, you know, ten years ago when he started, right? He was a frustrated. young high school student, right, who wanted to create community. and wanted to find other young conservative. kind of religious, faithful people who he could spend time with, which ultimately. grew into one of the most significant political movements.

You know, in the century, I think. Okay. So it doesn't necessarily need to be the same playbook, but what it needs to be, I think, what to attract any younger person, around politics today because there is such disdain for institutions. Okay. Is we need to collectively. find places where younger people find community, where there is a shared culture which ultimately can, can,

be developed into, you know, political, positions, ideology organizing. My point here is that that can happen on the right, it can happen on the left. And there are more people on the left whose values align. with kind of progressive ideology, but they don't have that space. So I wrote a piece, showing in the New York Times just a couple of days. after Kirk's assassination, and I kind of broke it out, and I said, there are 4 or 5 steps, I think, that are worth studying.

That made Kirk, Kirk, that helped elect the president United States. It was hard work. He was engaging. The right wasn't engaging. And whether, again, his his widow and his colleagues. can take it to the right, that's one thing. Okay. But my point is there should be an opportunity. to do the same thing on the left. And that's what I've been waiting for for decades. Well, what is the oligarchy tour then? Both AOC and, Bernie Sanders, a charismatic leaders.

Haven't they created a space they've created, a movement, but it's different, I think, because it's a campaign. Okay. It's still about politics. First. Okay. And what Kirk did okay was create spaces outside of politics. Not everyone wants to be talking about oligarchy 24 seven through 65, okay? They want to be talking about their day to day lives. That's what I find in every single focus group, a room that I answer, you know, people seem to be nervous when we walk in thinking it's going to be.

a political debate or a quiz or something, but when we end up just asking. about how their day is going, you know, what's a good day, what stresses them out, what their life is like, what we don't understand. They feel empowered and they ask me when they can do this again. Those are the kind of spaces I'm talking about, okay? Where they're based upon community and culture, and then you get to talking about the oligarchs, you get to talking about,

you know, the why the system is, in their view, kind of preventing them from living their best life, perhaps. with their lives, with their parents, you know, led just 25 or so years ago. Okay. My point is that Kirk led with culture. first, with community first, and then politics followed. And I do think that there's an opportunity on the left. AOC, Sanders we're certainly see this in a New York City right now. With with my. army, I think my Army perhaps has as much of an ability.

as anyone I've seen to actually kind of extend his appeal in this conversation. beyond just an election into something kind of bigger, that gives people kind of a stake and makes people feel heard. And that's important. Is this the sort of place that traditionally churches. or mosques or temples would have played in people's lives? And then Covid sort of slowed down what was already,

a dwindling of people going to these places. And now people are still looking for the same things. that they used to talk about in church or in mosques or temples, but they don't physically turn up at them anymore. They go to the gym on a Sunday morning or a Friday night instead. I yes, and. this is not just a post-Covid five year phenomenon. This is a decades long phenomenon, you know, from, I think, one of the most important sociologists, you know, in in our history,

Robert Putnam talked about, you know, probably two decades ago in Bowling Alone. Right? It's it's it's how, we're losing social capital in connection. to our friends or our neighbors, our fellow citizens, because, you know, he argued, after the Second World War, we moved out to suburbs, air conditioners on. We weren't walking. We weren't enjoying each other's company in bowling alleys and clubs. and those sorts of things. So this is been decades. I think, in the making.

But I think the really interesting and really good news. is, as, again, someone who cares about, you know, reconnecting the social fabric is, is actually a return. to church, to temple, to mosque, in fact, specifically among younger people, in fact, to there's been a lot of research just in the last couple of years. There are actually more members of of of millennial generation. and Gen Z attending services.

than baby, than Gen Xers and baby boomers. So that's something to, to to, to keep a close eye on. And I've actually spent some time actually talking with folks. And just in the last couple of months, about this very subject about, the role of religion and, and, and faith and showing up on a, on a, on a, you know, to a service or, or, you know, amusing apps and television, etc.. And what I'm hearing is it's actually a place.

to disconnect, right, and to be present. And what's interesting I think about this, about this. generation is there is this return to traditional religion. And part of that, I think, is an antidote to the overwhelming stress. that people feel when they're connected to their phones. Right? And that, by definition, is a place you can't do that. You need to see each other and be present. And, it's a it's a trend worth picking up.

It's it's more, I think, prevalent. on the Charlie Kirk side of, of the political spectrum. But, it's not I think we're we're seeing similar. interest in rebuilding faith communities on the left as well. Okay. Super interesting. And possibly a very positive sign for, for society. people understanding that the smartphone isolates them and craving. to get back to, to company and actually being in person with people.

So what are the polls telling you right now about where. in particular young men, we've talked before about young men. being such an important constituency for Donald Trump to get elected. How are they feeling one year in? Or I guess it's ten months into his actual rule? But, it's a year since the election we're all familiar. with those traditional questions are do you approve or disapprove?

Fave own fave, right track, wrong track. The question that I ask on a monthly basis, showing up in a in a monthly poll, I do, yeah. My company Social Sphere is, I think, more direct, which is, is Donald. Trump having a positive or negative impact on your life? Okay. For no difference. And what we found, in January, ten days or so before the inauguration, we found among younger men.

a majority, 55% said having a positive impact. Okay. And, and most of that obviously was around. feeling heard and the potential for, economic strength and kind of a return. for younger men feeling like they could be the providers that they want to be. Okay, that was 55%. Right. And push back against Dei and the fear of cancellation for saying. what you actually think. Exactly.

All of those checks. Oh, okay. Only 22% said negative more than 2 to 1. Okay. The last wave of this survey that I did, it was it was just less than a month. ago was end of September, and the 55% number went to 31%. Wow. That's a big less than a third say he's. having a positive impact on their life okay. And 43% say it's negative okay. So where the way we think about this is in January.

a plus 33 okay 33 points. net positive impact. Today -12 minus okay. That's a 45 point shift okay. In nine months. Is that the biggest shift you've ever seen? That seems pretty dramatic. It's up there. I'll tell you something. Women, you know, shifted 41 points. Okay.

They were net zero. Okay. As many thought positive as negative. And now it's 18 positive impact 59 negative impact. What is the reason for that? What what why are they feeling more negative than they were. just before the inauguration? I think is just really simple, which is every time they walk out. of their house or their apartment, if they're lucky to have one. Okay, everything costs more than it did a year ago, right?

Everything costs more than a year ago. When I looked at, the overall feelings of the economy, I looked at the economist YouGov survey, over the weekend. And, you know, a majority of all Americans, the highest number. in the last year, think the economy is off on the wrong, is off on the wrong track. And we can see that reflected in everybody, specifically younger people.

Their ten points more likely today than when Biden was in office. a year ago, to say that the economy's off a long track. So, so much of it is driven by that one. And then also, I think they're looking at. the East Room, they're looking at Venezuela, Venezuela, they're looking at, you know, myriad of these other issues. And they're seeing through them. And they believe it's cynical. We know we ask these kinds of questions in the polling, you know, from.

from the National Guard in Washington, DC, through some of these other issues. They feel like they're an abstraction. From what distraction from what is the reason. that so many younger men voted for him in the first place is ultimately he promised. to help them be a better provider, and many are beginning to feel betrayed. So really, young men are impacted by the demolition of the East wing. of the white House.

I think that's just. the latest in a string of what they see as distractions from President Trump. doing what he promised younger people to do, right, which is to improve the economy so they themselves. could be better providers for themselves and the people that they care about. And they gave him some slack. We talked, you know, last time we were on the pod together, we talked about the slack. that younger people were giving him, giving him some time, give him, you know, some opportunity to get his team in place to see the effect of the tariffs, etc..

But I think that time. for many young people is kind of running out for him. You know, he needs to begin to deliver on the core promise. And when you have only. 31% of younger men, 31% of younger men saying he's making their life better. I can't think of a worse number for him right now. I can't think of a worse number for him right now.

Now, it doesn't necessarily mean, though, that. the 69%. who think that there's been no impact or it's negative are voting for Democrats. Okay, that's the different dynamic in this cycle compared to his first term. I think, you know, at this point in 2017, that's a different dynamic. And Democrats cannot make the mistake that just because they disapprove, just because they think Trump is actually hurting them financially, that they're going to, you know, end up voting in large numbers,

for Democrats, outside of New York City, you know, you know, in a week or so from now, I don't see that happening at this moment. All they impacted at all, or are you getting feedback. from them on the government shutdown? We're one month in now, and it feels like the most under talked. about government shutdown. Certainly in in living memory. And yeah, I mean I just think there's exhaustion.

You know, I, I was on the road doing focus groups. In the earliest days of that shutdown, it was just exhaustion and, and that that both there wasn't like a big surprise. there that they blame both parties and the system for doing for during this. I don't think it's a, it's a subject. I don't think it came up over the weekend during my focus groups. It's not a subject that I'm picking up or hearing from the rank and file people. that I, that I, that I talked to were kind of at this point,

if anything, it drives people to kind of the. anti-establishment pathway of trying to make change. I don't think they see at this point the folks I'm talking about, I'm sure we can find a poll. that shows Democrats are winning, are the Republicans are winning. I don't think that matters. I think that the shutdown is doing grave damage. to further damage to institutions, Congress, Washington politics, government.

That's the real damage. And it's driving people outside of the system. And that's something that I'm not sure either leader. of both parties really fully appreciates. So we're hearing negatives on Donald Trump, but you're not hearing much positive about the Democrats. If you were advising the Democrats, what would you. what would you suggest they do to counteract this? Well, I think what you said, Joanna, was an understatement. when you said you're not hearing much positive about Democrats, you know.

So, one of my one of my favorite questions to ask in focus groups was, you know, if the parties were people, who would they be? Okay. What would they look like? Okay. If they showed up in a bar, if they showed up, you know, in, whatever. Interesting. And I wish I'd. I wish I'd met you when I was a college. Because I would love to have been involved in something like this. This was a young, young man said this, just a couple days ago, he said without hesitation.

He said, Democrat is a is a is the HR department. It's a human resource department, okay? They act like they really care about you, but they actually work for the mad. They actually work for the company. Okay. Like, think about that. Right? Who wants to be visited by the HR department? Okay. It's never good news, right? If you're going to get a raise or a promotion, the boss is going to come. in, not the HR department. Right. The HR department is going to likely kind of grind you down with,

with with policy or telling you something. that, that needs to be change needs to be adapted. to not a conversation you really ever want to have. Or a person to necessarily be around. And no offense. And you have the great HR people out there, but that's the vibe that younger people are feeling about the Democratic Party. right now. I know I was I was feeling slightly defensive about our HR person, who is a great contributor to The Daily Beast.

I would say, Lisa Marie, if you're listening to this, I'm. giving you a shout out. But it was one of the criticisms of Kamala Harris, right? That she appeared to be a scold. And that you're always nervous when the HR department. shows up that you've inadvertently offended somebody. by saying something that you hadn't thought twice about. And that, I think, is what the Democrats have been wrestling with a bit, this sense that we are all on the edge of offending someone else. and being told off for it.

Exactly. And then the other piece, okay, is we heard this about both Democrats. and Republicans, that if they walked into a room, they would actually be wearing one of those NASCAR type, you know, sweaters, right? Or, you know, or uniforms where you have the corporate logos. Okay. You know, fix to every part of your, your jacket or your sweater. or your shirt representing all of the people who own a piece of you.

Okay. And that exact metaphor was used. for both the Democrats as well as the Republicans. So there's just not a lot of distance, I think, in terms of call it. the oligarchy. Younger people are seeing both parties writ large. Driven by that. And what I think a lot of. folks don't perhaps appreciate. is that is younger people. And that's that like, that's.

the reaction you need to kind of break that, that image of Democrats if you're going to have a meaningful conversation. What about what the future looks like? This is a party. This is a this a group of voters, I think, who are more rational, more pragmatic. Perhaps then we might appreciate. and therefore, I think are searching much more. for anti-establishment than any necessarily ideological purity.

There are going to be a number of people who voted for Donald Trump. and also for his own. On Amy, as an example, a New York City rookie who, when Sanders Trump bombed Army. Right. That's not about ideology. It's about are you fighting the system or you're part of the system? And it's also about charismatic leadership that all three men, apparently fearless and apparently. say what they believe as opposed to parroting,

sort of thought out policy put together by committee. There's one person that we know does concern Donald Trump. and certainly undermines him, and that's Jeffrey Epstein, the specter of Jeffrey Epstein from beyond the grave. At one point, his best friend, before they had a falling out. Does his name ever come up when you're talking to young people? It did. It came up over this weekend. We did a focus group of this past weekend. And, it was from that Trump mom dummy, you know,

person. And again, it's, you know, it's basically. two promises that this young man, remember, right. One is are you going to kind of give me a fighting chance, right, to. to to live my best life? And you know, are you going to release the Epstein files? Literally. That is what he said. Those those two things. So, that was one of the very first times, honestly, of the, you know, probably 50 focus groups.

I've done that. His name came up organically, but, but it did. come up and it came up within this, like anti-establishment. Maybe he's not what he promised to be. Listen, I think that, that, you know, Trump. and the Republicans, obviously, and Kirk. all kind of connected to, to helping elect. him, to the white House.

And, as much work I think Democrats have to do. But, you know, Republicans are on shaky ground with young people with younger men. And what we all need to appreciate is the. the voters in 2028, many of the voters in 2026 weren't part of the 24 election. Okay? Those voters came of age during the Biden term. Okay. You know, the post Covid effect, isolation,

loneliness, inflation, a feeling of America was it was weaker, not stronger. And government. over government overreach, insisting that kids wore masks to schools, insisting on everybody staying at home when clearly it was. having a terrible impact on mental health and the economy 100%. Okay, that so that was what younger men and many younger women brought into,

the electorate. That's a lot of how they made their decisions based upon that reaction. Well, today's high school students, young college students, young people in the workforce, okay, they're making their kind of political identity is. being deliver is being is being developed okay. Through the first year of the Trump 2.0 term? Okay. Mostly all of it is negative a shared about those numbers okay.

So that is going to be the vibe that they're taking in. in 26 and in 28. In terms of he's not delivering what he said. There's more chaos, there's less safety, there's more economic concern. Right. What is he doing about that? So he can't count on that. There was a significant backlash in the 2018 midterms. There could be a significant backlash again in 26, but only if Democrats take the page out of what Kirk did.

Organizing and what mom does and others are doing listening and really begin to, make meaningful connections beyond just those algorithmic, you know, data feeds, they seem to be, using at the expense of actual, truly listening. Oh, that's so interesting. I was going to ask you about algorithms and social media. And to what extent does it ever come up that the Chinese owned TikTok, which is one of the most powerful drivers of political discussion.

in the United States, is this something that, any of the people you've talked to show concern about? Do they show an understanding. that everything you see on social media isn't necessarily true? They're deeply concerned about that. I don't know, I mean, we've asked some questions. The, the the role of, Chinese ownership honestly hasn't. kind of come up, recently. But what does come up is almost, almost by default is younger people,

specifically younger men saying like, we don't want to see this, right? We're we're fed this this, you know, often kind of far right, misogynistic violence content. that we don't want to be a part of, but they get it anyway, right? That's what we're hearing. And, again, they're blaming kind of the established men. Right? Younger men, younger people want far more government oversight here.

Right. But they again, kind of believe that it's. those corporate patches, right, that Democrats or Republicans are wearing. Okay, representing, you know, by big Tech and Silicon Valley. And they know that is harming them. to their mental health and ultimately through their physical health. And that's why we talked, you know, just a couple of minutes ago. that they're trying to find anything they can do to unplug,

whether it's showing up in a couple of hours. of focus groups where we can use your phone, or showing up to worship or service or something like that. Right. So, I think kind of the younger people are more aware than anyone else. of the content that they're seeing, and they're essentially asking, institutions to help them help themselves. But again, just another indication of, of. of of of government and failing to deliver something that they're asking for. So they think both political parties are corrupt and they're looking.

for leaders who appear to be free of the ribbons of corruption. that tie them to the big parties, which Bernie certainly does seem to be. And AOC and indeed Mamdani. That's right. I think the biggest divide in this country today, Joanna, is the divide. between people who feel heard versus people who feel unheard. And the most successful politicians are going to be.

the ones from either party who let people feel heard. That's a lesson I've taken from the last years of my research. Well, as the mother of two. sons, I find it. astonishing the idea that young men don't think they're heard. because their voices are very loud most of the time. Do you have a prediction for what are the polls telling you about. what's going to happen in, in New York and Virginia and New Jersey? Yeah. Well, all the polls are saying that,

you know, Mamdani has a strong double digit lead. He's leading across every major demographic group that we can see. And, and in Virginia, you know, it was expected for quite a while. Right? That's a that's a state that tends to flip, that. Spanberger would win as a question of by how much. Right. And most of the polling now is showing, you know, a double digit lead, and win. as possible with, I think, a more narrow,

potential victory, in new Jersey. But that trifecta next week could really begin to change that dynamic. And I think give younger people and also other kind of. Democrats and progressive some hope moving into to 26. Okay. Well, it's good to know that young men care about the demolition. of the East wing, too, traditionally the home of the first lady. I'd love to have you back to talk further about Turning Point USA. and how you replace someone like Charlie Kirk.

I understand Eric has gone in, but one of the points. of charismatic leadership does that sense that they're incredibly hard to follow, and that all they do is tear down the institutions that people are used to? But you can't replace them once they've gone. You just inherit the chaos. So I'm very curious to see what happens at a turning point. and whether or not it continues its impact on young man. John, thank you so much for coming on and telling us yet again.

that young men must be heard and a feeling unheard. What are you up to next? Well, we are watching, obviously, the, early voting in as many states. as we can, and I have my 51st Harvard. poll in the field now, I'm so excited about that. And we'll be reporting that, right after Thanksgiving time. So I'll look for that soon. Okay. And let me ask you one final question then, to polls still have. a role in the world of polling market.

I think they are driving polling market actually. And I think that unfortunately this is maybe for the next part. I think, Joanna, I think they have too much of a role in terms of shaping the conversation. We should be looking at the top of our numbers, but it's the it's the conversations like the ones that we've had, right? The the quality of research that gives voice and humanity to a polling. and the polling market that I think is what we we need to be spending more time.

on, not whatever the chances are of some person winning or losing. That is where I think, polling oftentimes is misused. Okay. So you're off to do more polling, talk to more people here, more young men. I'm sure they will be thrilled. We will look forward to seeing you, after Thanksgiving. See you soon. Thanks. So there you have it from John Della Volpe. Real insights into how alienated young male voters in particular,

feel from the institutions of America that are supposed to make them feel tucked. in and protected, and that they have a big future in America? Always fascinating. This is the mother of two sons. As I said to John, I find it extraordinary that young men don't find themselves. heard because they are so noisy, and yet clearly they do feel alienated. And it's something both parties need to take heed of. We'll be back with John after Thanksgiving with his latest insights.

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