James Carville: Why Trump’s Smokescreen Will Fail

Hello, I'm Joanna Coles. I'm the Chief Content Officer of The Daily Beast and you're listening. to The Daily Beast podcast or you're watching on YouTube where we have had hundreds, thousands. of comments, especially about our last two interviewees, David Rothkopf and Anthony. Scaramucci. Mock Turtle 1402, you did not like us having Anthony Scaramucci on and neither. did Topcat 298 and you hated the idea of Elon Musk being pulled back into the Democratic.

Party. Of course, he was a Democrat and then he moved over to the Republicans. You hated. Anthony Scaramucci's idea that he should be brought back under the Democratic roof. Anyway, we have an equally provocative commentator today, James Carville, who you will remember, got Bill Clinton elected with a whiteboard, a war room and of course a winning election. slogan, "It's the economy stupid." So let's get into it. James Carville, what the hell is going on in America right now?

Well, our president seems to be doing very well. The country is not doing very well. and I don't see that changing here in the foreseeable future. When I say the president is doing very. well, it doesn't mean politically, I meant financially. Right. So he's very good at distracting. us, isn't he? What should we actually be paying attention to here, James? What we should be paying attention to is that he said on day one that he would get rid of inflation,

that the economy would boom, that we would get so tired winning our head would be spinning. and right now the dollar is losing its value. You can't imagine what the forecast. are coming up. I see the airlines are predicting much softer summer travel, Walmart, people like that are already issued warnings. And so he obviously didn't deliver. anything. They've only passed five pieces of legislation since the public and Congress and.

he took over. So he keeps doing things to distract our attention from what's really going on in the. country. Like I'm going to ban ex-green money. I'm going to run for a third term. And he deflects us. from what the real is and that's the massive failure of this administration. So why hasn't there been more response to it yet? One thinks back to Trump one and there were protests. in the street, there was the woman's march and now there seems to be crickets.

I don't know that all that. His rating is going down precipitously. The action, the do something caucus, we can't just stand here, we must do what? You don't have any power. And whenever you go to people and well pound the podium or throw your hands in the air, what good is that going to do? We start, we right now start talking about alternatives. to what they're doing, what we would do, make them take bad votes. And by the way,

I don't know how to tell the commentary at this, Democrats don't lose elections anymore. What does that mean? Well, I don't know what it means. It means we're getting more votes than they. are. I would never tell a certified bona fide member to press that election returns are more. important in polls, but I actually think they are. So James, what do you think about AOC and Bernie. Sanders oligarchy tour? Is that an effective response? Let's deconstruct this. Okay. Okay.

People think when you ask them about the Democratic Party, they say they're old and they're coastal. All right. That's the image of the party. Well, and you've said that too. You've said that they're. talking to overland professors, right? Right. Focus group after focus group, after piece of. research after everything. Trust me, when people say the Democratic Party, a huge number of them. said they're old and they're urban. So I got a great idea. Let's send an 83 year old in a congress.

with the Queens out in the country. And by the way, they think that we're trying to talk over. people's head and use language among each other. Let's try the word oligarchy, who 90% of people. in the country have no idea what they're talking about. And that's the problem with Democrats, particularly the more identity, the more pronoun you get, the more you try to use language that. no one else uses. So I'm not a big fan of the quote oligarchy, unquote tour. And what good does it do?

It just identifies you as an old urban party. And to me, it's counterproductive. Okay. So you think it's counterproductive. If you were advising the Dems right now, what would you say they should be doing? Well, first of all, in politics, timing is everything. And so you anticipate timing. All right. And so you know what's coming. You know they're going to.

have this terrible vote coming up. They'll probably have voted by the time we do that. For the big beautiful bill. That's on the one part of the budget. Then they got to go to another. part. Then they got reconciliation. Then they got Senate. Then they got the debt extension. So be prepared to at all times offer an alternative and point out where all is. the deficit. The second thing is timing is the Virginia governor's race. I can't tell you.

how important that is. Why is it so important? Well, it's going to tell a lot. It's going to affect. recruiting going into 2026. All kinds of candidates say, well, if I run, you know, can I win? It turns out the way in Virginia that I'm starting to believe that it will. The Democrats will get a lot of recruits. And it's a telltale election that accompanied with. New Jersey. You're not going to post until November of 2026. The idea is not to win the summer.

The idea is to win the election. So what's the messaging in Virginia? Well, message in Virginia. is... What do you think state has the highest percentage of federal employees of any state. in the country? Now we're getting somewhere. What about the naval bases in Hampton Roads and. Fortsmouth and places like that? I think you're going to see a turnout, the likes of which you've.

never seen. And they're already... They're trying to set... They're so warning all of the listeners. to this podcast. They're trying to set up the expectations game. They have a story in political. about how much trouble the Republicans are in Virginia. So when Spanburgle wins and when she's... She is going to win, by the way. You think she is? You said that... I'm just going to remind you, did say that about Carmina. I did. I was wrong. I don't know how to explain it, but I also said we.

shouldn't use the D'n'The language. I also said Biden should get out of race two years before he. got out. You did say that. And I also said we should have a contested primary when he got out. You did say that. I was three for four, which is a pretty good night. All right, but you're... Gung-ho on Spanburgle. Spanburgle is going to win. All right. And. Marchion is everything. And if she wins by three, people will go, "Well, the Democrats always win.

when only Terry McCullough and I think it was 2013 that broke that chain." But if she wins by a lot, it's going to shake things up. It's going to shake people's mentality up. The other thing is that. nine house seats in the state house that are Republicans in district that Harris carried, I don't think these people are going to have a good November. So this feels like there would be a. boost in Democrats' morale, which right now still seems pretty low. It's low. And the reason it's low.

is Democrats don't like their own party. Oh, go on. How interesting. And why they don't like their own. party is because they're party loss. The purpose of a political party is actually to win elections. And when said party loses election, members of said party don't respond favorably to the party image. If we start winning, that's going to change a lot. And I think we're going to win in November. And then we're going to start recruiting better candidates. But understand, again, we're not.

trying to win the summer. We're trying to win the election. Right. Podium pounding and throwing your. hands in the air and all that is a very limited utility. What did you think about Senator Booker's. filibuster? It was amazing. The guy could sit there for 25 hours. I mean, my heart's off. What. did it change? I mean, I think you do it, but I don't have any problem with that. It made some.

people feel better. It's okay. That's fine. What's going to change is when they have to start voting. on deficits of $4 trillion, when they have to start voting on cutting Medicaid that affects. people, affects that people even more, when they have to start doing that, we have to just beat. out with alternatives, not just to oppose it, but to say, this is what we would do when we get.

in or this is what Democrats should be doing. And then they got to vote for this debt extension. Bond market and interest rates are looming over them. Like, this is the most untold story now. Mark is raising out for 7% that basically how home buying the United States is almost out of. standstill. In addition to, I don't know how many other things, and Trump knows that. And so he keeps. coming with some silly shit and the whole commentary, oh my God, he's going to do this.

He's going to arrest the congressman. Well, he's got to keep doing that. So you don't talk about, and I don't talk about, and no one talks about the 7% mortgage rates that he was going to get down. from day one. No one talks about shipping down 65% in Pacific Ocean. No one talks about price hikes. that are already being installed because of his tariffs. All right? No one is talking about how. young people don't have access to education or home buying anything else that we marked as real.

parts of a tain in the American dream. But for God's sake, let's cover every bullshit thing. that he comes up with to stay distracted from the fact that the country is going in the economic. toilet right now. We're recording this on Wednesday. It will drop on Thursday. There's been a lot of. focus this week on Joe Biden's diagnosis of prostate cancer. You're, I think, the same age. as Joe Biden, actually. I might be a little bit younger, but I was close enough to scare the.

hell out of me. Well, I was going to ask you, do you have your PSA levels checked regularly? So honestly, what I am told that after you reach 75, some days like that, they don't check it. And the theory being is generally very slow. I do not only know what I read in what my own. physician said. I actually, I have some more extensive blood work done by a nephrologist,

and they did check it. So you did have it checked? But I didn't ask for it. And I don't, I think the nephrologist, but I don't think it's recommended on people Biden's age. Because almost everybody has it at that point. I don't know the whole story. And Ed Kilgore, who's a really smart guy who's dealt with it, he's had it and runs it his family. There's some cases that usually very slow going according to what Ed said. And sometimes it can.

be very fast. But I don't know the whole history. But I do know there's pretty standard that you. stop doing PSA tests after a certain age. And I think Biden has reached that age some time ago. So you don't think that he would necessarily have known that he might have prostate cancer. while he was in the White House? I don't have any idea. I do know that it's not recommended for. people above a certain age. But I don't know any of the facts. I think that all this is going to.

put a real focus on the health of presidents or potential presidents. And I'm not saying it's. just spending it. This is going to cause a lot of attention on Trump, who is not a young man at all. And who will be 81, I think, when he finishes his term. But there's more to find out in the. revelations that have come out thus far, have not been very complementary to President. Estine. Well, I was going to ask you about that. Have you read the Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson.

book Originals in? Because obviously that's dropped this week too. So it's like a double whammy. against the Biden. I have not read it. It's only been out since yesterday, I think. I read a lot. of excerpts. And look, the story is basically true that he was in the White House. He was saying. his run for election. He obviously had, he was slowing down physically. He obviously had some.

cognition issues. It's obvious that some people knew about it. And it's obvious that they tried to. cover it up. And you were pointing this out, you were pointing this out two years ago and saying. he needs to step aside. Yeah, I was pointing it out as early as 2022 that it didn't, I always thought. I was in a unique position because I was elderly myself. I had some idea what to job entailed. And I didn't, I don't think that's a job that is designed for a person in the 80s. I just don't.

And I thought that if the party had so much underutilized talent that if he didn't run him, we let all this talent go out there. We would have won this election by six, seven points. If we would have had an open process, we would have won this thing easily. And what people forget, and there's always the doom of the Democrats, it's the end of days. It's. the worst a party has ever been in history. It's the lowest rating. Will it ever exist?

So we go into the 2024 cycle. What about, is a disastrous lead up as you can have an unpopular. president who's aging and the public knows he's aging, and he stays in the race until. less than three weeks, I think, before the start of the convention. Then we nominate someone who. is elected vice president, but that doesn't, doesn't mean a lot in terms of the electoral appeal.

We're just sight unseen and we take it and she offers no change. And wait, we lose by a point. and a half. We played a seven string quarterback and we lose by a point and a half. We actually pick. up a house seat. So it was a disappointing election. I'm not saying that at all, but. waited to be reported on, you would think it was like a 64. Well, it's because the Democrats lost every single tranche of government, right? All three.

Well, I understand that and we don't have power in government, but the party has not collapsed. Okay. It didn't get blown out by any stretch of the imagination. And what we've seen in the past. is an electoral bull out. But everybody, I've never seen anything lower. Okay. Yeah. And by the way, women lost an election in this year. And I don't think we're going to start.

Should Kamala Harris run again? She talked about thinking about running for government. in California. I don't know if she runs, that's her perfect right to do, but I got to tell you. the field is going to be really fast, really good. And I hope everybody runs, but I would tell every. potential candidate, you better lace up your shoes because this is awfully fast tracking. that I'll be running on. And I think people are going to be blown away at the talent level in. a Democratic party blown away. So our previous guest on the podcast, Anthony Scaramucci,

pointed out that Democrats do much better with younger candidates. So JFK, your candidate, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, who are the candidates that you're excited to, as you say, put on their shoes and lace up? Well, the problem with me saying that is I always forget someone. Okay. And then I go, why didn't you mention this? Well, we're some ways off. Let me, let me, the number of potential Democratic presidential candidates under the age of 60 is.

stunning. I mean, it's just stunning. And anytime I talk to any of them, I say, but God says, run, run. And we're going to be helped when people, hopefully we, you know, my idea in the last election. was at the end to just announce four town halls around the country, have President Clinton, President Obama, moderated and invite six people. You know, done that, we don't want this thing so.

easy. You wouldn't even believed it. So, you know, I think the party chair, and I think there's a. really good idea, we're talking about doing like a mini convention in 2026, let the public get a look. at the people that are thinking about running for president. I think it's important. So we talked about AOC and Bernie. You made the point. That's all we talk about is AOC and Bernie, but go ahead. Let's continue to talk about AOC and Bernie. I'm only asking about it because, right, I understand.

Because they are doing something, they're clearly putting themselves out there. You know what they don't do? Win elections. Okay. And that's the, you've got to understand. That's the only thing I care about. Right. The progressives, all they do is impress other journalists. They never beat a Republican. Tell me when one body from that wing has ever run against a Republican. All right. That's the problem. So what, and everybody goes in the same, okay, in Bernie has run for.

president twice. He lost twice. He lost more the second time. But when I go on cable TV or podcasts. like this, the entire Democratic Party is AOC and Bernie. You know, Jackie Rosen doesn't exist. Okay. Well, I, when the ball one doesn't exist, Ruben Gallego doesn't exist. Alyssa Slotkin doesn't. exist. It's, I never get asked about them. What about AOC? What about it? But to be fair, I did.

To be fair, but I asked you and you said, Oh, I'm not going to name them. I'm not going to name. them. So what I, what I'm, we, what we want is other people to watch, right? And they're putting. themselves out there. There's so many stories detailing so many potential Democratic 2028. candidates. You can just read them and see. And the names will just spoil off your lips. But let's. just say there's an abundance of potential candidates and there's a lot more to the Democratic.

Party than AOC and Bernie. Okay. Let's, let's stipulate that. All right. So I guess my push. back to you would be that some of this is about name recognition and what AOC and Bernie both have. And I take your point about Bernie having run twice and lost twice is name recognition, which. we don't know who will run from the Republican Party, but clearly for Kamala, it wasn't long. enough. The 107 days she had wasn't long enough to establish a beachhead against someone as well. known as Donald Trump. So shouldn't we be talking more specifically about names now just to get the.

names on the radar? We don't, we don't go to post till 2028. Okay. Right. But remember, James, James, but remember, Donald Trump had 16 seasons of the apprentice when he got up there. The man. had dominated American media for 40 years. It's a huge advantage. I'm not mortally worried about. the nominee of the Democratic Party not being sufficiently known by election day. This is.

not even the summer of 2025. The election is in the fall of 2028. Why in God's name do we have to. articulate an entire program and an entire laundry list of potential presidential candidates? The. answer is we do not. That is not necessary. Timing is everything. I don't, and I would push the clock. up to the extent that in 2026, in the summer of 2026, I would have a cattle call or whatever you.

want to call it. And so, okay, AOC has recognition. You know how many times on Fox News AOC has. mentioned in a day? I have no idea. Go on. A ton. All right. And so, she represents a plus 25. Democratic district. And every time that you see a Democrat that is out there screaming and pounding. the podium, ask yourself, have you ever beat a Republican? Is that really because if you.

know me, you know that there's one and only one noble purpose in politics. And that is. winning the election. Okay? That's why we exist. So, we're not going to win the election in the. summer of 2025. We don't need to try. What we have to do is set up ourselves as the party that is.

simply trying to help people who are trying to make it. And what they're trying to do is help. people who already have it made. You know, you're not going to achieve the American dream with a. 7% mortgage rate. Suck a half it. And you're not going to achieve it by giving trillions of dollars. in tax cuts to fat cats and billionaires in causing the deficit to go up and interest rates to go up.

even more. We have plenty to talk about. So, at the next election, Donald Trump will not. be standing. Even he said he won't stand. Do you think MAGA can survive Trump? Does it continue? Or is he such an anomaly? And once he goes, the Republican Party is then split and they're trying. to figure it out? So, there are two views about this. Trump came along and he was a very skilled. politician, a very skilled communicator. And he said that there was some potential here.

Through his genius, he was able to massage and exploit this and build it into a political movement. That is one view. There's another view that I think was most articulately presented by a woman. named Kathy Barnett, who ran for the Republican nomination as senator from Pennsylvania, I think, in 2022. And she said that MAGA has always been there, that Trump came up in MAGA supports Trump.

because Trump supports MAGA and MAGA will be there after Trump is gone. I agree with the Barnett view. It's always been there and it's going to be there when Trump is gone. There is nothing. at all remotely conservative about MAGA. In fact, if you look at what Trump's actually saying, he's saying, he now wants to raise, says, of course not to do any such thing, says he's going to.

raise, wants to raise taxes on wealthy people, says he wants to force the drug companies to cut. prices to everyday people. He's not going to do it, but he's running to the left. What they do it is, just standard Republican crap. The Republican Party used to be really free traders, the. Wall Street Journal editorial plays free markets, free speech, free world and all of that. That was.

all the fantasy that never existed. So as you're looking out over the next year or so, just sum up. your priorities for what you think the Dems should be doing given what's happening right now. First of all, I think we should use our legislative opposition to not just oppose them, but articulate what our alternative view would be. To me, that's critical and it's critical that.

the party call us around how is this going to help anybody that's trying to make it in this world. I think that involves huge, huge majority of all Americans and I think it's a construct. that people understand. I think that we should encourage to have a large field of presidential. candidates because that's who it's going to be that's going to define a party. We can't define. congressional leaders don't define political parties. The only one I really did that I can.

remember is Newt Gingrich and that ended in a disaster. One of the books was Tell Newt to Shut. Up. You're not going to have a party leader until you get a nominee and we shouldn't try to accelerate. the process, we shouldn't try to force the process and focus on winning elections and that.

people in the Democratic coalition have a responsibility to the larger coalition. Now, some of the, and I've said this before and I'll say it again, some of the people on the more. pronoun side of the party are to consider having their own party. I'm serious. Really? You think that the Democrats should split? Well, I think that somebody that says that like white males are responsible for all the violence. in the country or something idiotic like that. I think you can find, you could have the pronoun.

justice socialist communal community party of the United States and run on out and then after the. election maybe you could do like you do in parliamentary. You could be part of the call, you go back and you say we'll cut a deal, we'll be a part of the coalition, give us a couple of. committee chairs or something. But the amount of damage the party and people are sitting down and. say look is the amount of damage that you do to the party brand worth what you bring. I think.

it's time to have to think about that. I think the damage that the identity left has caused the. Democratic ban. I think it may exceed its value to the party and most of these people are on a. lot of different things about Democratic either way. But so if you look at what's happening in. Arizona, whatever, I don't know what party chair who wouldn't want anything in Arizona and that's.

not going to remember, I can't remember the Apollo's on or the member of the senator's. deconceding and that's it. We hold the governor's right chair and we hold two senators and he's. attacking the senators. Well who elected this guy? Nobody. That's exactly what they do. When you go. out and you win an election, that's the highest thing you can do. The Arizona Democratic Party. should be worshiping at the feet of Senator Gallego and Senator Kellogg. They should be trying to do.

everything they can to help Governor Hobbs. You're not there to promote your own agenda, you're there to promote people who get elected. And you know, I'm serious, they might not be worth the trouble. That's just this cold hard fact. Well it's fascinating, James. As always, your perspective is really helpful. I'm pretty confident. that your pronouns are he/him. I don't know how that stuff, whoever came up with that,

has no idea. But many have to have some kind of imagination to think of something that would. be so politically disastrous. I think Elon Musk secretly came up with it. Well I was just going to ask you about Elon Musk. That's my final question to you. At our last interview, Anthony Scaramucci got a lot of... Oh, he's a good guy. He's a good guy. A lot of people responded because he said he couldn't believe the Democratic Party.

had ever let Elon Musk go. Should they bring Elon Musk back? His platform X is pretty useful. He said he's not going to put any more money into politics for the time being. But should the. Democrats woo him back or is he too damaged at this point? What do you mean bring him back? Bring him back to the Democratic Party. He's left. Yes. No. No, you think he's done now? Well I can't imagine that after all of this that he'd want... What does he bring? The guy is like...

Well he brings X. Look at the damage he's done to the federal government. Why do we warn him? Well fair point. It's just that he used to be a Democrat. Then he got embraced and suckered in. by the Republicans. Maybe he used to be smart and then he went crazy. Good point. All right. So no more Elon Musk for the Democratic Party says James Garville. Pronoun he/him. James, it's always good to talk to you. Thank you very much. I want you to come back.

soon. Thank you. Just remember it's all about winning stupid. It's all about winning. It's. all about winning. All right. Well this was a winning interview. Thank you very much. I love talking to James Garville. There's something reassuring about talking to someone. who's had a big win in their life so they know what success feels like. They know what momentum it. creates and also who doesn't give a fuck. Who just says it as he thinks it and it's provocative and.

there's also so much common sense in it. I am looking forward to talking to him again. and of course he doesn't use his any fancy pronouns. Of course he doesn't. He's just he/him. Anyway, if you have been, thank you for listening and watching us and please subscribe to The Daily. Beast. Subscribe to the podcast. Tell all your friends about it. Subscribe on YouTube and do. subscribe to The Daily Beast too. We are independent media. We call it like we see it. And on Sunday,

we're going to be talking to Daisy Goodwin. She's a big TV producer who lost 50 pounds. on a GLP1 and it's really her story of transformation and how it's impacted her life. in all sorts of ways that she could never have imagined. It's super, super interesting. And. until then, be beast. Today's episode was produced by Devon Rodgerino, Anne von Erson, and it was edited. by Deanna Chapman.