I Know the Secret of Why Trump Truly Fears Putin | The Daily Beast Podcast

I think Trump is afraid it proves him. One former British intelligence guy, MI6 guy I spoke to said. It's The Manchurian Candidate on on steroids. I think some kind of compromise is the best working explanation. The FSB, KGB are adept at surveillance. They break in and watch everybody. And of course, that means that we trumps have Donald Trump. The tapes of Donald Trump. during his visit, for example, in 2013 for the Miss Universe beauty pageant. And really, you just have to ask yourself, what did Trump do there? Whatever happened there or didn't happen there?

Trump knows. The Putin knows. And I think it's this kind of Trump knowing that Putin knowing gives. Putin leverage. I'm trying. This is the Daily Beast podcast. Don't forget to like and smash. the subscribe button because we are independent media. This is how you show your support. And it's why we can bring you conversations like the one. we have this afternoon, which I found fascinating.

about Donald Trump's relationship with Vladimir Putin, who is just invited to the G20 summit in December. It'll be the first time that Putin has attended the summit for seven years, and certainly the first time since he invaded Ukraine. At the center of our conversation is this book, betrayal, which has not been allowed to be published in the US. And we'll get into why.

But the author, Luke Arden, really gets into this mystifying. relationship between Putin and Donald Trump. What does Trump get out of it? What do the Russians get out of it? So no more ado. Let's get into it. Luke. Welcome, Joanna. Great to be with you. Hello. Hello. Hello. So you say that the Trump Putin relationship is the biggest mystery.

in international politics. Where do we begin with that? But what do you think? What do you think is at the heart of that mystery? Well, I mean, I think there are several overlapping factors. And I was, halfway through writing this book last year when, of course, Donald Trump invited Vladimir Putin to Alaska for for a summit in Anchorage. And this is one image I couldn't shake, which. which you have to kind of go over where Trump is on Air Force One.

He comes down the steps looking lethargic and uncharacteristically nervous, lacking his usual alpha swagger, and he stands at the sort of red carpet t. and then, Vladimir Putin, the sort of Chile small. figure in the suit, emerges and walks towards him. And then Trump starts manically applauding like a seal. Like a seal. And, you know, in footage which is so kind of cringey. that the white House kind of removed it from its sort of social media feeds.

from from the summit. And, so there's mad applause. Then, of course, they have they have talks about about Ukraine. Then there's a press conference. afterwards with the whole world's media, you know, flying into here to hear. Have they got a deal on Ukraine? What's going on? And of course, it's an American president on American soil. So he goes first, right? Except he doesn't. Trump then defers to Putin, who makes a kind of rambling speech about history. for 8 or 9 minutes in Russian air, and then that's that's a wrap.

There are no questions. And off they go. And the thing is, whether you think it's a conspiracy or whether you think there is something, as I do in terms of the Trump Putin relationship, you need to explain what's going on. And really, I think there is definitely dictator envy, which is a phrase used by Fiona Hill, who worked. for Trump in the first, Trump administration. In other words, I think Trump envies Putin's ability to make money, make even more money than he has billions, tens of billions over.

over a quarter of a century. And Luke Putin is reputed to be the richest man in the world, right? I mean, I think he is, and I think everyone in the Russian. political elite understands that, that obviously, Joanna, if you go to. a, you know, if you go to Chase. Manhattan in New York and say, have you got an account in the name of Mr. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin? They're saying, no, sorry, nothing here. But everybody inside Russia understands that his assets are held. through a series of proxies and friends and relatives.

I found some of his money in the Panama Papers. You remember that offshore leak in the Paradise Papers and, Yeah. And he can he can use his for personal projects. or national projects, but he's worth hundreds of billions of dollars for sure. And and of course, Putin. The other thing Putin can do that Trump can't do is, is murder. His opponents poison them. Right. I shouldn't be shoved out of windows. Right. And he really has comprehensively rolled up.

the political opposition in Russia in a way that Trump has not yet. may wish to do, but has not been able to do in the States. And then on top of that, I think there's what you might call. ideological convergence. In other words, there are quite a few people in MAGA, including Tucker Carlson, for example, you know, who look at Russia. and see a well-organized Christian, socially conservative, anti-war. kindred states where, you know, what, a few years ago,

hitting your wife was decriminalized in Russia. And where where the rhetoric of the state is directed against liberals, gay people, degenerate Europeans and so on. And so, you know, there's a sort of affinity to the to agree. where some Americans, evangelicals. have actually even moved to Russia to go and live there. And then and I think the real key to the mystery. is what the KGB called. compromised or compromising information.

And, you know, what we know is facts rather than as speculation. is, is that Eastern European spy agencies. back in the Cold War have been spying on Trump for half a century. So since the late 1970s, when he married a woman from. behind the Iron Curtain, from from from red Czechoslovakia. And I've been soprano and looked in the archives of the study, which is the Czechoslovak intelligence agency, and there are. lots of files about the Trump family, about little Donald Jr.

Are, you know, breaking his leg, about a Farner and her modeling career. And of course, this product was sent back to, to to Moscow. And then if you fast forward to the mid 1980s. The savate ambassador. in it goes, goes into Trump Tower invites to old Trump to, to visit Moscow and Leningrad, which is what he does. And what you have to understand is, you know, at the same time the KGB was sending memos, secret. memos, which were were leaked to British intelligence by Oleg,

famous defector, basically berating. KGB officers abroad and saying, you are not recruiting enough Americans. We need more Americans as assets, as confidential contacts. And oh, and by the way. Here's a checklist of what we're looking for in a potential asset. And it includes being, a bad analyst, being bribe able, having affairs on the side. Not have any great principles being sympathetic to Russia.

And you go down this list and and basically is Trump. If a chef came out in a restaurant and said, I've never actually cooked this before, but how hard can it be? You'd probably head to another cafe, because. when something really matters, experience isn't a bonus. It's the whole point. That's why so many people turn to Morgan and Morgan, which is America's largest injury law firm. Morgan and Morgan has a proven track record of fighting for the people.

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people.com/daily beast. I have to stop you because I found this absolutely riveting. And I am one of the very few people who actually read Ivana Trump's memoir. Odd but true. And in it, she talks about one of the reasons that she was allowed in. and out of the country because she was a junior Olympic team skier. Was the fact that she would always give them.

a very efficient download or debrief of her travel? So she would come back, she would sit with the Czechoslovakia, intelligence services and talk quite happily to them. And I found it fascinating that they then. shared those records with the Russians, the Russians. Then she's still doing this when she's married to Trump, and I guess she's used to it. I mean, to an American or to a Brit. The idea that you would be being debrief when you come back from travels,

that you would expect this, that you would give them. certain amounts of information is obviously it's sort of anathema. But Ivana Trump was used to it. And as you say, the Russian, the Russian ambassador then approaches. Donald Trump and encourages him to come for a visit, which he does. Right? He does. So can you pick up this, this story from Donald Trump first appearing? You've got Gorodetsky saying we must have more Americans.

A 1985 questionnaire set out what sorts of targets might be of interest to the KGB. The agency wanted to know about an individual's attitude. to Soviet and American foreign policy and their career prospects, for example. How likely was it that the subject could come. to power, occupy the post of president or prime minister? Also of interest were personality traits that might be exploited. are pride, arrogance, egoism, ambition. or vanity among the subject's natural characteristics?

I mean, Ivana had already told them that her husband was interested in politics. It's impossible not to believe that. That Donald Trump was clearly a person, if not a Russian asset. As you lay out, he was very clearly a person of to be influenced. Yeah. That's right. And also, by the way, we should remember that Donald Trump's father in law,

Ana's father, also reported to the secret police. I mean, he's in the files as well. I mean, he would update them and brief them. And I actually when I was in Prague, I knocked on the door. of one of the one of the retired, secret agents. who had been pursuing the Trump family, and they didn't want to talk to me. He said you were trying to put me in. You're trying to put me in my grave. And then he shut the door. Yeah, that was an amazing line, actually. It's a very chilling line. And I think he in the book, you used the word tomb, right?

He says you're trying to put me in my tomb. And I thought, oh, the word tomb. It was so gloomy. So, so, so, so what we can say for I think two points, you know, one is, yes, there was an extensive late Cold War cultivation exercise by, by, the KGB to, to kind of, you know, to, to see, to see where Trump would go and to kind of pushing them support him. And but. I think the other key point to make is, is not that the KGB are they're not.

sort of bond villains stroking a cat who press a button and things happen. They they didn't know what would happen with Trump. Basically their their method both then and now is opportunistic. So they approach a wide range of potential targets. I mean Trump we have to we agree, is a very promising one. And knowing that that most of them would fall down would not become prime. minister or president, you know, but but might be useful. And I think what they identified in, in, in Trump was his,

the sort of chaos he brought, the divisiveness. and the fact that he here is someone who could really. if he if he went all the way, you know, damage and undermine. America, which the KGB always referred to as the glove nie, meaning the main adversary. And that that was the goal. The goal was to undermine and sabotage American democracy. And in Trump, I think they found someone they thought they could do business with. Can they believe their luck that they happened. among, as you say, they cast a wide net of other people. And I'd love to know some of the other business people that they.

thought might be useful. But but I mean, what is the feeling. about Trump in Moscow? I mean, what do you what do Putin. and the Russian intelligence, the FSB. what what what do they say about Trump? And I should just point out as well that you mentioned the Alaska summit. The Alaska summit was set up.

on a misconception by Steve Wyckoff. that the Russians actually wanted something when, in fact, because he hadn't. taken his interpreter with him, he had misunderstood. And the entire summit, which we remember was very hastily flung. together, was, in fact, because Steve Wyckoff of got had got hold of the wrong end of the stick. Right? Yeah. I mean, I mean, I compare Steve Wyckoff and Jared Kushner, president son in law, to two characters from famous Samuel Beckett play.

waiting for Godot, where I call them the Vladimir and Estragon. of international diplomacy, because they they make these endless trips. which are kind of looping and, and circular and absurd, where they end up in the same place from where they started. And we're actually nothing happens. Of course, there is no peace in Ukraine because doesn't want to stop the war. And and Trump doesn't want to exert any pressure on Putin to make him stop. So they're, you know, ridiculous characters.

and it would be darkly comic were it not so consequential for Ukrainians. who are being bombed every night by, by, by Russian ballistic missiles. and jet powered drones in recent months, which is a terrible damage. But on on your question about, you know, how does Russian intelligence see Trump, they really regarded his victory in 2016 as a triumph. for their espionage methods, probably the greatest triumph. through the whole Cold War and post-Cold War period.

And, you know, let's acknowledge they were all in for for Trump. I mean, you know, the report describes their operation. as sweeping and systematic. I mean, they wanted him to to to win. I mean, I think they thought he wouldn't win, but obviously they did everything. in their power to to help him win from hacking Hillary Clinton's, you know, Democratic Party emails, dumping it out to to media outlets. And there was there was classic espionage as well. So, so and they're thrilled that he's, he's he's back in power.

So, I mean, there were popping champagne. corks in the Duma when Trump won. And. they regard him basically as their guy. I mean, not not someone that they manually control, but they can influence. who is endlessly susceptible to Russian propaganda and disinformation. So Russian disinformation becomes American disinformation. This is a perfect validation loop for them. So what are the biggest wins for the Russians.

in terms of Trump's own policies? I mean, the biggest win. I mean, my books called betrayal, the biggest win. is, is the fact that the direct U.S. military assistance to Ukraine has stopped. And and the thing that the level of the Ukrainian. president really wants at the moment are these high end Patriot. interceptor missiles, which can shoot down these hypersonic, fast moving Russian missiles before they land and kill people. And a lot of them got squandered in Trump's war in Iran.

It said they were in short supply. And you know, Zelenskyy has said, okay, well give us some and give us the blueprint so we can make our own. I mean, it'll take a while, but the Ukraine is pretty, pretty ingenious and creative. And Trump has refused that as well. And and the consequence is that the civilian death toll this year. has gone way up. And of course, you know, the other thing he's done really is humiliate Zelensky. I mean, last year there bust up in the Oval Office, which I describe as one of the dark, most darkly.

electrifying moments in political history was a it was an ambush. It was premeditated. And I think the idea was to kind of nudge American popular opinion away. from away from Ukraine towards Russia, in a more Russia friendly direction. And the other thing I just think is this sort of disinformation, I mean, Trump will say things like, you should never have started it. to Zelensky. I mean, I was in Kyiv in February 2022 when Russian tanks were coming towards me.

in the capital, having crossed the border from from Belarus. I mean, Ukraine did not start this war, but but Trump's kind of Trump. basically gives the impression that the the problem personality is Lensky. and keeps boasting of his very, very good relationship with Vladimir Putin, the man he applauds constantly. And really, Joanna, America swapped sides either, by which I mean the Trump administration either supports Russia. and once Putin to win or is entirely indifferent.

to Ukraine's fate and the suffering of its people, or both. Okay, so can we then extend that into what Mark Carney. referred to earlier this year at Davos as the end of the global world order, that the world order that had essentially stood post-Second World War. has has basically been entirely upended by Donald Trump. And you now have Mark Carney reaching out to the EU and saying, you know, we want to we want to essentially become an associate.

member of of the EU and European countries, no longer relying on America as their chief ally. I mean, you know, even the essence of Naito now feels very vulnerable. That also is, I am assuming, a huge win for Vladimir Putin. It's it's a huge win for Vladimir Putin. It's almost as if a kind of retired KGB general sitting in his dad chair. outside Moscow has has penned a kind of a novel.

or a thriller, an updated version of The Manchurian Candidate, where a pro-Russian American president comes to power, basically trashes, the transatlantic alliance, which really was. kind of fundamental aspect of international security architecture. for 80 years, you know, trash talks. Keir Starmer, former British prime minister, describing him as no. Churchill dismisses the Italian leader, Georgia maloney as a fan girl.

and basically kind of a strangers or alienates. traditional Western allies while embracing the autocrats. in the shape of Putin, but also, to some degree, Kim Jong un in North Korea. And and she Jinping, who's about to meet in China. This is not normal. This is not, this is unprecedented. It does enormous damage. to America's standing in the world and really to the idea of America. as a shining city on a hill or a place which aspires to global leadership.

And look, I'm not in the US, but. from from my vantage point, it looks like a kind of grubby, predatory, shabby country, just just like any other. I mean, the leadership thing is, has gone in the age of Trump. And of course, the Russians are, you know, putting their hands up and, you know, applauding and just what, you know, one final point, which is that what Trump has done, with his his rhetoric to his threats.

to an ex Greenland and to menace Canada, kidnap the Venezuelan president, proclaim. the Americas as exclusively kind of American zone is to actually. legitimize what Putin is doing in Europe, in other words, conquering Ukraine. So you have one imperialist in the shape of Bhutan, and you have Trump. as a kind of Coimbra realist store, a sort of meta imperialist, because, you know, sometimes these are empty threats, and a real sense that together. with XI, they're trying to divide the world up between them.

So you've also, however, got. and the there's so much one back here, Luke, but you've also got two men stuck in a forever war. I mean, Trump has been now at Iran for six months. The Ukraine Russian war, which Trump, of course, claimed he was going to solve. within the first day of him taking office is now has now lasted four. and a half years longer than the First World War is.

Is Putin as invulnerable as he seems? I mean, we've done a lot of reporting at the Daily Beast. with our our reporter Alison Quinn, about. sort of internal efforts to prop Putin up because he's more vulnerable. than he seems, certainly to to us in the West. What's your sense of his vulnerability? Yeah, I mean, I mean, just to to say you have to acknowledge. that both Putin and Trump are not very good imperialists, actually.

Right. I mean, it's got stuck by that. They both got stuck. I mean, Putin thought he would take care from three days. I mean, that's what his intelligence chief chiefs told him. They said the Ukrainians would not resist, and he thinks they're Russians anyway. and would greet invading Russian soldiers with flowers. And of course, they didn't. They they blew them up and continued to blow them up. Right. And Trump likewise, you know, really, really, from what I hear via sort of Pentagon. people also thought that this joke or no operation in Iran would be.

would lead to kind of quick victory and the threat of the regime. And he he's he's in a quagmire there as well. But in terms of Putin's position, I mean, I think what what you have to understand. is that. when I was in Russia for four years. reporting for for my newspaper, The Guardian, I was kicked out in 2011. And back then Russia was it was an autocracy, essentially, with a few kind of democratic aspects left over from the 90s. But now it's a totalitarian or near to an state where dissent is impossible.

So it doesn't really matter how badly the war goes. And when we're talking about 1.4 million Russian soldiers killed or injured 1.4. million, there is no avenue for kind of public process or dissent. The the the the cleverest, most creative Russians, younger Russians, many of them fled in 2022. And the remaining population is passive, either supports the war or tolerates the war. Fatalistic in quite a sort of Soviet Russian way,

and is not going to be storming the Kremlin anytime soon. And so, you know, Putin will outlast Trump or that that I can guarantee. I mean, there are lots of rumors about his health, which I'm told by my sources are not true. He has very good doctors. There are other rumors that he has body doubles. I think those rumors are true. I mean, because you see, you see a chilly Putin a five meters away. from his conversation partner on a very kind of long Kremlin table.

That's the real one. And then sometimes you see another Putin film from behind, plunging into crowds and hugging babies. And I think probably that's the oh, that's the fake Putin. That's the fake one. And certainly Ukrainian intelligence think there are several Putin's. And probably the double has a double for when the double has a day off. You know we're there. No, but there are. And actually, you know, only only a true wizard, you know, would be able to replicate themselves many times. So there's some kind of leaning into this idea from the Kremlin as well.

But but really the conclusion is the war goes on. Unfortunately, Europe's biggest war, most terrible war since 1945. So long as Putin lives and breathes and is in the Kremlin, and I think it will. only stop or pause when he's carried out horizontally in a coffin. And you remember, you know, whenever Soviet leaders died. back in the 1980s, there was Swan Lake ballerinas dancing to Swan Lake. So I think it won't stop until we get Russia has its one leg moment.

Wow. Well, that's bad news for all those young men in Russia and other countries. that are being recruited to fight on Russia's behalf. So. So, Luke, I realize also, I, I. we shot. off in another direction in terms of Trump's. having been bailed out by the Russians. Can you just talk us a little bit through that too? So so they get to know him in the 80s.

He goes for a visit. He goes back a couple more times because he's talking to them about. real estate deals. He launches Trump Vodka, which, as you point out, quickly flops. No surprise there. Trump water flop Trump steaks need I go on Trump University and people still think. he's a good businessman. It's a it's a mystery. But, but the Russians do end up bailing him out, don't they? And they do end up paying for a house that he has in Florida. that he buys, actually in a competitive situation.

with Jeffrey Epstein, which is why he and Jeffrey Epstein fall out. Yeah. I mean, this story is, is, filled with bizarre and and troubling moments. And that was certainly one of them. He. Yeah, he bought a house in Florida in 2004, and then sold it to, to a Russian oligarch called called Rebel Love laugh. a couple years later for, for for twice he bought it more than twice.

The oligarch never lived there and eventually demolished it. And and by the way, in case there any lawyers. watching, I talked to his representatives who insisted it was a good deal. And also it was unclear where Trump got the first 40, whatever. it was 42 million to buy the property in the first place, correct? Yeah. I mean, these are sort of aspects of of Trump's backstory. I explored in in In Collusion, my previous book, which came out in his first presidential term. But there was a very strange pattern of lending from Deutsche Bank,

which lent money to all of the Trumps. In fact, he lost all his money for his points in the 1990s. And normally, whether, you know, conventional bank, that that would be it. You wouldn't then then lend. But but even though Trump's, liquidity was was kind of very dubious. Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Bank continued to lend him large sums. There were similar questions about his finances now. about how much money he's made during his second term and investment flooding into. Jared Kushner. Funds from.

from Gulf states, which the New Yorker wrote about very well last week. So, so it's murky. And, you know, you wonder if the Democrats do win Congress. in November, whether they'll be able to shine some light on that. So, Luke, when you look at this picture, what is Trump afraid of? Putin. I think Trump is afraid of Putin. I mean, the city I mean, there's a there's a real sort of plain sight.

to all this. I mean, people kind of try and dance around this subject because it seems so. But you know what seems so bonkers, bonkers, crazy, outlandish, outlandish and extraordinary. And like I said, like a spy novel, like The Manchurian Candidate. I mean, actually one, one former British intelligence guy, MI6 guy. I spoke to said it's it's The Manchurian Candidate on on steroids. But but I think some kind of compromise is the best working explanation. I mean, I if I can tell you about what happened to me in Moscow.

when I arrived as a correspondent in 2007, within about three months, the FSB, Putin's spy agency, which used to run before before he took. over as president, broke into my family apartment. and put various bugs in. I was told by the British Embassy and, you know, I went to go see them and they said, yes, it's the FSB breaking into apartment. They left all of these stupid clues that they'd been inside. And I said to I said to the embassy, well, can you remove the bugs? They said, no, we can't. There's no point.

I'll just put them back in again. And then I said, well, do they have video? And they said, yeah, possibly. And they said, in the bedroom. And they sort of shrugged and said, well, you know, let's have a cup of tea. Which is what, what what what? You know, British embassies do if you come in in a situation of parallel for you. They can't do much because we're sort of we're not really a well, power anymore, but they'll they'll give you tea and a biscuit. Right. So the fact was that, that, you know, the FSB bothered. They also kind of interrogated me at one point in their, in.

their little prison called, but they bothered to sort of. spy on me and my wife in the marital bedroom for about three. and a half years until I, until my visa was canceled and I was. deported. And they made it clear that they were watching us. because on one occasion we came back from a family holiday in Berlin, and they left a sex manual in Russian by the side of the marital bed. And I had to say to my wife, you know, darling, this really isn't mine. You know, the cage sheep have introduced this,

and I think they're basically saying we're watching it everything. But are they giving you a. This is going to sound odd, but is that actually a sort of friendly thing. to do where they're actually saying, listen, we've bugged your apartment. We have to do this with the FSB? You know, you're being bugged. We have left friendly clues. No. There's nothing. There's nothing friendly about it at all. The goal was basically.

to to make, you know, make my wife say, look, I can't take this anymore. Any longer. Let's go. And meanwhile, the foreign minister was hinting. it would be better if I left, you know, and saying things like, are you not worried that if you stay, something will happen to your children? On one occasion, we came back and found that we're living on the 10th floor. of a of a Moscow kind of high rise. Found the window next to to our six year old son's little Ikea bed. Which, of course, we double logged had been bust open with, with a long plunge to the icy courtyard below,

and the implication being that maybe he would meet with an accident. So I think they thought that this campaign would make me leave, and actually. it didn't. And in the end, they just cancel my visa. But but you know, the the big point I mean, the reason I tell you this. is that the, the, the FSB, KGB are adept at surveillance. They break in and watch everybody. And of course, that means that we trumps of Donald Trump the tapes of Donald Trump. during his visit, for example, in 2013 for the Miss Universe beauty pageant.

that we take some of the bomber of Hillary Clinton of any high profile. American visitor will be bugged, followed, intercepted. There'll be an attempt to kind of compromise their electronics devices. That's just, you know, standard operating procedure. So so there will be tapes of Trump in Moscow. And really you just have to ask yourself, what did Trump do there? I mean, perhaps he had an early nights with a cup of herbal tea, started leafing through War and Peace or something else by tells story.

Or maybe he had a more exotic and interesting experience. But the Senate Intelligence Committee in 2020, in a report, you know, the time chaired by Marco Rubio, produced a report and confirmed that the FSB. had surveillance cameras and guest bedrooms and the hotel where Trump stayed. So there'll be tapes. And the crucial thing is you, rather than speculating, what we can say is fact is that. whatever happened there or didn't happen there, Trump knows, the Putin knows.

And I think it's this kind of Trump knowing that Putin knowing. gives Putin leverage. And I don't think Putin is sort of threatening to expose Donald Trump. I think Putin basically flatters him like the kind of veteran KGB officer. he is and says, Donald, we are beset by enemies. They're the same people trying to bring down our presidencies. You are great historical figure on the world stage. I will always be your friend. I will always be your rock.

And oh, and by the way, is Lenski is a bad guy. And Trump internalizes this. And it works. It works every time. It works every time. So what are what of Vladimir Putin. and Xing Ping saying to each other about Donald Trump? Luke I mean, we've got the Chinese leader arriving tonight. We're recording this on Wednesday afternoon. I think it's Wednesday. I mean, it's impossible these days. Everything just morphed so quickly into each other. But it is. Wednesday afternoon, Chinese leader arrives for a state dinner.

and obviously meetings with with Donald Trump. What do you think. the Russians and the Chinese say to each other about Donald Trump? I think they see Trump as someone they can manipulate and dupe with relative ease. And meanwhile, they can they can. Well, while doing that, they can kind of build their own project, which is to revise the world order, make it less U.S. dominated. Or the phrase the Russians love to use is less unipolar. Unipolar. They want to multi-polar world.

In other words, the kind of Russia and China inflected world. And their relationship is pragmatic, but it's very close. I mean, I write about it in my book. I describe it as a kind of complex sibling tale. because they were allies when it was Margin and Stalin. Then they fell out in the 1960s and had a brief border war. Then then under Putin, there's been this strategic partnership, and the Chinese are supplying the Russian military. with optical equipment, with all sorts of very useful.

goods, enabling, you know, the Russians to smash the Ukrainians. So, of course, you know, China is pragmatic. It's less it's more risk averse than than Russia. But there's a very, very close relationship between the two of them. And Donald Trump has talked about prizing Russia away from China. But it's it's it's it's not going to happen. It's not going to happen this week. And it's not going to happen next week. We've mentioned that both.

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have got forever wars on their plate. Now, as part of that, Donald Trump. has pulled the last remaining aircraft carrier out of the South China. Seas, leaving Taiwan more vulnerable than it has been. Do you think this is a moment where China. could decide to take Taiwan? I mean, I mean that that's that's a really interesting question.

And I sort of think, you know, a few years ago that you might sort of speculated that. that that's the kind of imminent possibility, I do think Putin's failure. in Ukraine, his failure to to to take here to topple Zelenskyy, even to seize the Donbas region, this, this, this part of eastern. Ukraine that Putin really badly wants and covets. has had a kind of chastening effect on she Jinping. Because, you know, on paper, seizing Taiwan looks relatively straightforward, right?

It's an island. It's relatively near. You attack it with overwhelming multi, multi. multi-level force from the air, from the sea. You know, you destroy it's critical infrastructure. I mean it looks doable. And yet surely the lesson of, of, of the Russian invasion is, is that things can go wrong. So I think, I think I'm not a sinologist, but I think, I think she is in kind of, you know, is in bide mode. He's, he's, he's waiting to see and certainly on a kind of,

on a kind of level of ideas, what Trump is doing with, with Greenland. and Canada and what Putin is doing in Europe. also means that a kind of Chinese escapade. is more likely right if the rules based order is gone. If we're back in a 19th century world of of great powers and spheres of influence, and trying to very much sees Taiwan as its own possession in the East. China Sea as it's as its domain, then anything is, anything is possible.

So, you know, we have to watch this space, but it may prove a bit harder. than it looks. It's. Yeah, it's a fascinating situation. Michael Wolff, on our episode of Inside Trump's Head. today, said he thought there was no better timing for the Chinese to do it. because Trump is entirely vulnerable. He'll probably lose the Congress in the in the midterms and that we've removed. the one, you know, the one aircraft carrier from the region. Anyway, we'll see.

And I'm sure Trump. will emerge from talks with XI saying that they've discussed it, and she has told him that he has no intention of going into Taiwan while. while Trump is president, or at least that's what he's always said said before. So I have a question for you, actually, about Trump's wives. So his first wife, Ivana, comes from the Czech Republic. Second wife, Marla maples, who he speeds through. very quickly or she speeds through him very quickly. Is Marla maples, who's an American, but his third wife is from Slovenia.

Do you think there's any connection there? Do you think? I mean, there's been speculation that Melania somehow was a kind of. also an agent of influence and again, an amazing job. because she's ended up as first lady, although she seems reluctant. to accept the role at least full time. Have you have your sources talked about this at all? Does this seem possible?

I mean, I think I think it seems less likely. I mean, the connection with. with the Czechoslovak spy agency and with Moscow is is well documented. As I said before, it's in the archives. We you know, we know we know about that operation. You know, Melania came slightly later. Slovenia. Of course, is a small country. It's less influential, you know, it's by age and sees less. adept, I think, than the Czechoslovaks, who were pretty good at all. this stuff, including kind of buggy and surveillance.

So I'm not convinced by that, but I do, I do. There is one interesting, you know, there was one interesting Melania moments, I think last year when when Trump was tilting a little bit. rhetorically, not practically towards Ukraine, when Russian TV started showing. seminude photos of Melania to millions of Russians. And I mean, I, I don't know how you read that, but I certainly read that as a bit of a warning.

to the American president that if he tilts too far. to, what's Ukraine, you know, more stuff could be published. But but, I mean, I hold on, hold on. I missed that episode. So they were showing old modeling photos of her. when she was doing her sort of naked modeling. They were showing those pictures on Russian television and Russian TV. And were they saying, what was the context of it? Luke? I mean, I it was. I can't remember what the kind of pretext was from a news point of view, but, but,

but that the Sunday evening show hosted by, by, you know, well-known Kremlin propagandist is the main vehicle. in which Russia sent us message out primarily to its domestic population. to, you know, to 110 adult, million adult Russians. But also, it seems strange that you would unearth these pictures. and broadcast them on state television. And I think that I think that was a message directed. to to Washington and the man sitting in the white House.

I mean, probably he missed it, but nonetheless, it was there for for Trump and Putin watchers to to ponder over. what is your understanding of what the Russian people think of Donald Trump? I think the Russian people think that Donald Trump. is a disappointment, which is really what kind of state media is telling them. There were really high expectations when he became pregnant again, that he would deliver Ukraine on a plate, essentially bully Zelensky. into signing a peace deal, which essentially meant capitulation.

All of Russia's wishes granted. And that didn't happen, not least because as he. by stopping military assistance to Ukraine, ironically, Trump had kind of fewer levers that he could pull. than if he had actually been helping in any kind of meaningful way. So so there's this sort of tone of wistfulness. and regret that Trump is not abiding by. what what the Russian state media calls the spirit of Anchorage. In other words, what they thought was a stitch up.

where they would get, you know, Ukraine to give up territory and so on. So they see him as a disappointment. But but also the criticism is, is rather careful. There's still a kind of fairly polite tone towards Trump at the same time. that the Kremlin press is screaming that the Europeans are degenerates. and warmongers and fools and so on. So they kind of, you know it. He's a friend, but but he's a disappointing friend.

Well, your book is absolutely fascinating. I will confess, I didn't know a lot of a lot of it. And I was fascinated by the fact that they. I mean, it seemed so obvious that the Russians and the Chinese would be thrilled. by having Trump in the white House, because it's only been good for them, despite his rhetoric, especially about the Chinese economy, but actually watching how carefully. they essentially started courting him. Post a post.

Having a relationship with Ivana is really it's really fascinating. And also your interpretation of the Alaska summit, how it came about. and then how humiliating it turned out to be for Donald Trump, who, as you pointed out, and as we all saw at the time, didn't bother to take questions from the press. Vladimir Putin held court and then everybody, everybody fled. None the wiser and certainly nowhere near.

getting a peace deal with Ukraine, which, of course was the goal. And it's also fascinating. I don't know if you've seen have you seen the movie Brink of War? I have to confess, I haven't. China. Sorry. Well, it's really interesting. It's Jeff Daniels playing Reagan, and it's the Reagan. and Gorbachev summit in Reykjavik. And it's just a fascinating comparison. between, then and now. Anyway, for anybody who who is curious about that time.

and about Reagan's impact on the beginnings of glasnost. and perestroika and, of course, Gorbachev, it's really it really worth seeing. And interestingly, at the end of the movie, the version I saw, which was in Times Square, Jeff Daniels appears with a QR code and says, I feel so strongly about this. movie and about, you know, the two sides working together for a greater peace that I will. If you download this QR code, you get a free ticket. to send a friend, which I've never seen in the movies before.

Anyway, I'm strongly recommending your book. I very much hope it will eventually be available here. Can people in the US buy it from amazon.co.uk? They can. Or the Guardian Bookshop. And also, of course, it's available in Canada. It's available in Canada. If you have Canadian friends, you can bring it over. But Joanna, the Russians had a term for this, which is called samizdat. You know, secretly published literature smuggled into the Soviet Union. And in a way, I think my.

I think betrayal is kind of savaged out for, for Trump's America. So get a Canadian Fred, to bring it. Thank you so much for joining us. And I do hope you'll come back when Russia Again is in the news. But you predict no end to the current conflict with Ukraine. You think it only works in Putin's interest? I'm afraid I don't. I mean, I'd love to tell you something more, more, more cheerful, Diana, but but I think the war continues. So long as he. So long as he is in the Kremlin upright. So it's not finishing this year, and I fear it went finished next year either.

Luke, thank you very much and take care. And Ukraine, thank you. What do you think? Do you think Donald Trump is actually a Russian asset, or do you think they just got unbelievably lucky? And as you heard Luke say, they were popping champagne corks. when Donald Trump was elected in 2016, and they couldn't believe it. when he was reelected in 2024.

And basically, what more could he be doing to help the Russians? If you have been, thank you for joining us and a big thank you to our production. team, Ryan Murray, Rachel Paso, Heather Pesaro, John Romero and Neil Rosenhaus. So the good news is we have so many BBC tier members now. There are too many names to read out and we really appreciate your support.