How Trump's 'Stupid' Move Backfired on Him | The Daily Beast Podcast

Obama's foreign policy, of which you were heavily involved, was. sort of loosely defined as don't do stupid. is what Trump's doing in Iran stupid? Yes. I mean, in fact, it's like precisely what Obama had in mind. when he said that, you know, they'd gotten rid of all the side. They've attacked their own intelligence community. I was never in a war game in which the first thing the Iranians did. wasn't to close the Strait of Hormuz, the cost of getting rid of all that expertise for so many years.

All this is converging in this one event, because he is reckless enough. to listen to Netanyahu and think, if I do this, I'll clap Syrian regime. and be hero and incompetent enough to not have had experts who were like, hey, they'd close the Strait of Hormuz and paralyze the Global Cup. I'm trying to Coles this is the Daily Beast podcast, and there is literally no one who knows more about the Forever War. and the negotiations that Steve Wycoff and Jared Kushner are leading us through.

with Iran than our next guest, Ben Rhodes, because he was heavily. involved in the Obama Iran negotiations and that deal. And he led the conversations and negotiations with Cuba. So we're going to get into it. But before we do, I just wanted to recommend one thing. Substack has started their own series of podcasts called open Tab, and I am surprisingly, rather thrillingly, actually one of their subjects.

I'm interviewed by Hannah Winner. And guess what happens when we're in the middle of the interview? There is a spontaneous fire. I think our conversation was so hot. Hannah's questions were so incisive that somehow. this lamp blew up and it was all a bit of a drama. Anyway, you can find it on Substack, on open Tab. on Substack, where we love our partnership with them. So I hope you enjoy the conversation. It's me talking at great length, but Hannah's got some very good questions.

which put me on edge and, well, they're just what what can I say? It was sufficiently explosive. We had a fire in the restaurant. Don't forget to press the subscription button. And now let's get into it. How did we get into this forever war? And are Steve Wyckoff and Jared Kushner up. to the task of helping Donald Trump get out of it? Ben Rhodes. Let's talk about it.

Couldn't be more excited. Ben Rhodes, to have you in the house, because there's almost no one who's got. better experience to talk about what's going on in Iran. and and indeed Cuba, because you were involved, heavily involved in led the Cuban negotiations. and you were heavily involved in the Iranian. negotiations. So I guess my first question to you is this book is,

is a look. at America's identity through the lens of 15 speeches. And the last two speeches juxtapose Barack Obama, who you worked for, his speech. on race, and Donald Trump's second speech, his inauguration speech. And it feels as if America. has had a complete change of identity. just with those two speeches. Can you just reflect on how much has changed in the white House.

since you were in the white House, in the actual white House? Yeah. I mean, I mean, first of all, I wrote the book. because I wanted to explore the kind of two identities that exist. because I think Obama is kind of emblematic. of a more progressive identity, where we're struggling to live up. to the aspiration in the Declaration of independence, of equality. And Trump is kind of a manifest of the kind of crudest. form of the more exclusionary identity. Were kind of a white Christian nation for some people. Other people can be here, but you have to kind of subordinate yourself to me.

Now, that said, the Obama White House, in addition to. just the place not being changed. It was an incredibly diverse place. I mean, I remember feeling, you know, being an event sometimes, you know, a party after his second inauguration. and looking around, and I was in the minority. as white people there, and it was like a black excellence.

And you. Hamilton was berthed at the white House when Lin-Manuel Miranda came. And so. So in addition to the place itself, the cast of characters. that came through the Obama White House, the people who were honored. Dolores Huerta is in my book. That's the kind of person who got the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Well, and I want to come to her speech because obviously, through the lens of the revelations about Cesar Chavez, her speech feels very different, very different anyway. But so then you go to Trump. And part of what's interesting to me is, even though Obama comes out of the more.

disruptive, progressive tradition, we need to change things. It's actually Trump who's proven to be in his kind of absolute insistence. on kind of taking custody of America and its story. He's been the one who's deviation from any kind of agreed. upon norms of behavior or physically manifest. Like, I was just in Washington, like the. I mean, I felt very humbled to be at the white House for eight years. Like, not many people get to work there for eight full years.

I love to roam around and kind of feel the ghosts there. It never gets old. I mean, I obviously haven't worked there, but I've certainly visited there a lot, largely under Obama's presidency, and it never gets old. The excitement of going to that House. Well, I mean, because so I mean, I'll just because obviously. it's insane now to see like the construction of some like Mega. dome for the the Ultimate Fighting Championship, it's absolutely jarring. to see a giant hole and some construction where the East Wing used to be.

But even like part of what was so wonderful. about the white House, and intentionally so by the people who designed it, it was supposed to be nice, but a little understated. Right. And so when I see, like, my favorite detail is not just the gold trim in the Oval Office, which reminds me of every authoritarian office I was ever in. You know, if you go to, like, the headquarters of the Burmese junta, like, it looks like the Oval Office looks now like there's gold trim everywhere. But the fact that he's got, like Oval Office written.

in script side, like it's the country club clubhouse. Like, we have to tell people this is the Oval Office, right? When you are actually confident in who you are in your connection to history. You don't need a gold sign outside. Well, and the very point of it is that there's. a lack of signage, that the reason that you are. there is for the Oval Office, which doesn't need to shout its name. Yeah. That's why it's oval. Doesn't look like other offices. Right. And so the I think what's interesting, you know, some, some of my friends who work in politics have thought or said to me, you know,

well, these ballrooms and things the distraction. we should be focused on all ice and all these, but they're all of a piece because I like the way you ask a question, like the the physical changes in the white House. and the changes of the kind of people who go through there. What's interesting is that, you know, I remember when Obama came in. and I'm going to say, I believe there was a racialized subtext to this. We had like, scandals because there was a picture.

of him with his foot on his feet on the desk in the Oval Office. Right. I mean, then I look at like, you know, kid Rock coming in and looking. kind of hammered, and Elon Musk, Elon. Musk like its nose and wiping it on the resolute desk. They seem intent on like. like showing disrespect for. what is supposed to be like a not their property. It's like the property of the American people, and it's a symbol of our history. And again, it kind of reinforces where the book ends,

which is that it's isn't it interesting that the reactionary. is the one who actually is. the unAmerican version of the story? You know, like the that's, you know, that's kind of a surprise in a way, right? You'd think that the reactionaries are usually about tradition. and small see, conservatism like maintaining things the way they are. Right. And it's and upholding the establishment. And in fact, he's trying to tear it now.

Yeah, yeah, quite literally, I'm physically trying to tear it down. Right, right. So Obama's foreign. policy, of which you were heavily involved, new. a deputy national security adviser and lead speechwriter, was sort of loosely defined as don't do stupid shit is. what Trump's doing in Iran stupid shit? Yes. I mean, in fact, it's like precisely what Obama had in mind when he said that,

you know, I mean, and I always thought, like, there are two sides of the coin, right? Like, don't do stupid shit and then be opportunistic in trying to. get get wins where you can. And he said that phrase kind of. at the precise time that we were trying to do a nuclear deal with Iran, and he was getting a lot of pressure to not make the nuclear deal with Iran. And and so that was part of what he was referring to. And, you know, essentially the history of American. foreign policy is the basics.

If you if you tend to the basics, the alliances, the kind of operating. of the systems that America constructed after World War Two, if you if you build upon that foundation. and then kind of look again, like what? Based on the opportunity that presents itself for the crisis, you have to respond to like what you have to to manage effectively. If you do that, you get pretty good outcomes. in what is derailed American foreign policy.

Are these usually wars that are incredibly. destructive and often pointless? I mean, if we look back at Iraq, you know, Vietnam, like these are the kinds of things. Obama is referring to. And again, at that time, the debate was, do you do nuclear deal with Iran, or do you just kind of keep ratcheting up. the pressure in a way that we thought was inexorably going to lead to war? We said that at the time and people said, no, no, there's just get a better deal.

And we kept saying, well, no, there's this is the deal. Like something like this deal is the best deal you're going to get. And so if you don't do a deal and don't want to run to get. a nuclear weapon, like at some point you're going to end up in a war. And that would be stupid. And here we are. Here's an uncomfortable truth. Recovery feels different as you get older, whether it's. strength training, long walks, pickleball, or just a busy week, I notice more soreness, more stiffness, and it takes longer to bounce back.

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and use Code Daily Beast for $20 off. After you purchase, they'll ask where you heard about them. Please support our show and let them know we sent you. It took two years to negotiate that deal. First of all, just on a practical basis. Can you explain what the negotiations are? Sort of like physically, like I imagine for some reason. that everybody sitting at a long table and there's lots of dried apricots.

and sort of honey dripping everywhere, she's probably completely untrue, but. but what is the sort of what is it actually like doing the negotiation? So first of all, unlike the current negotiations, you also have to remember that it was not just the United States and Iran, right? It was United States and then Britain, France, the United. Sorry. The UN right? Yeah. The UN permanent five. So Britain, France, Russia, China, right. And then Germany and the EU. So the permanent members of the Security Council. So I say that because in addition to the direct negotiations with the Iranians,

like your number one agenda item, when you're meeting. with all those other countries, is the round talks. The actual talks. My role was. I was not in the negotiating team in the field, but I was in the white House. Situation Room and we would get updates every session after from them. And then I would be the one, you know, with, with a couple other people. to go get Obama's guidance for the people in the talks. They were in Geneva and Vienna, and then a lot of them. really were long table, you know, people exchanging views.

But as someone who did a lot of and would you have I'm. sorry to be very basic about this, but would you have the Iranians down. one side and everybody else down the other side, or were people. sort of sitting cheek by jowl? Yeah. What does it actually feel like in a room? So what it feels like and I did some of these myself, particularly with Cuba. There's a formal negotiation. You know, there's a formal process. where the Iranians are one side table and everybody else on the other side. and, you know, maybe square if you have to fit in other people.

But oftentimes, the more sensitive topics, you pull the person aside and take a walk. So John Kerry is going to go for a walk with Zarif, the Iranian foreign minister at the time, Abbas Araki, who's a farm minister. Now. He was the kind of deputy who was working level negotiator. And so he's doing that with American counterparts and others. Sometimes because there are multiple countries, you kind of pick which country is going to kind of. present an idea to the Iranians, or they're going to go to different.

So the reason it took a lot of time is both the complexity of those negotiations, but also the kind of multifaceted nature we had to negotiate to keep. the block of the permanent five members of the Security Council together. At the same time, they were trying to get the Iranians to make concessions. One interesting thing. that, again, sticks out, given the contrast of the current moment, when things were kind of stuck towards. the end and things were getting very technical. because it was like, how can you have inspections. that kind of convince us that we know they're not cheating?

What do we really need to get from them? But they they need to keep some face saving elements of their program. We brought Ernie Moniz, who was a secretary of energy, who's a nuclear physicist, quite literally into the negotiation. Right. And then his counterpart, who was the leader of the Iranian nuclear program, got himself. He came into the negotiation. They had known each other from MIT. Oh, wow. And so the first interesting point about. that is that sometimes because the Iranian regime is odious,

we they're cast. as kind of fanatics like, you know, these are very sophisticated people. But because they had this relationship, they actually kind of really made. the difference in kind of hammering out some of these details at the end. And again, did they have food? I mean, is this a table laden with food? No, no, this is like, you know, it's along the side of the room. You know, you get up and you get kind of like every, every, like, not great meeting or something. Yeah. Yes it is. Right. It's very much like a board meeting. Okay.

So you don't end up with blood sugar low and people storming. No, it's not like there's, like containers on the table. No no no. Yeah yeah yeah yeah. To make sure. So the other thing I'm fascinated by is, you know, Steve Wycoff and Jared Kushner. and occasionally JD Vance have been sent in to negotiate these. Could you right now go down and negotiate a 99 year lease for a building. downtown in Manhattan, which is supposedly Steve Wycoff expertise?

Nope. I would have no idea how to do that. Right. So. what what. advice would you give poor Steve. Wycoff and Jared Kushner, who've been delegated. this seemingly difficult and intransigent task. as they get up to speed with how to negotiate with the Iranians? So one of the things I actually loved working on this issue, in part. because we had this enormous team.

that included, like the Avengers of experts within the US government, like the people who knew Iranian politics, people who were like nuclear scientists, people who were like sanctions experts, who knew how to like to deal with the, you know, imposition and relaxing of sanctions. You know, any expert you could think of. We found the best one. related to these negotiations and had them supporting the work. I don't think a single one of those people are still in the US government,

because they're the kind of people that were purged by Trump, right. And so what my advice would to them would be, hey, like, just get the very best. experts in the United States government to help you prepare for these meetings. But part of what I think and I can feel has happened. is that not only do they not know anything about what they're negotiating, I mean, they don't know the mechanics of how, you know, uranium. is mined and milled and put through centrifuges, but they've gotten rid of all the experts, right.

The National Security Council that I used to work on. used to have a staff of some 250 people. People said that was too big. Okay, maybe a little bit, but I think the last I've heard is that. now there's like 25 or 30 people in the white House working on this. They've gotten rid of all of these Siddi. They've attacked their own intelligence community. They got rid of the experts who said that the Iranian nuclear program. wasn't obliterated. Remember, those people were clearly right, or else we wouldn't be negotiating this. The State Department is hollowed out. We don't have ambassadors in a hundred countries.

I think people don't know that. And so they don't even don't have ambassadors in 100, 100 countries. It's a willful disregard for expertise. And they finally run into a problem where they're probably looking around. I mean, that's every we did wargames, right? Well, I was going to say in WarGames, you must have talked about the Strait of Hormuz, didn't you? So this is we did this because, you know, I read a War Games one, because you could end up in a conflict with Iran, and two, because Bibi. was constantly.

pressing us to go to war with Iran and bombed their nuclear facilities. So we said, well, let's game out. What would happen? I was never in a war game in which the first thing the Iranians did. wasn't to close the Strait of Hormuz. But again, I think what you get in Iran is this weird convergence. of Trump's recklessness and incompetence and and incompetence. Yeah, because the cost of getting rid of all that expertise for so many years, because it was in Trump first term two, all this is converging in this one event.

because he is reckless enough to listen to Netanyahu and think, if I do this, I'll collapse Iranian regime and be a hero and incompetent enough. to not have had experts who were like, hey, they'd close the Strait of Hormuz. and parallels the global economy, right? And. it can't be that they didn't think about the Strait of Hormuz. They must have known that this is a potential outcome. Do you think or do you think it's possible they didn't. actually think it was a potential outcome?

I think that they believed in. from some people I've talked to, including people. I'm friends with in places like the Gulf, you know, who were talking to them. They were sold the bill of goods by. Netanyahu that the regime would just collapse. Right. And by the way, you saw them try to do that. They assassinated the supreme leader. I think that that they they were that was day one. So actually day one looked pretty good, except. that, again, any expert on Iranian, the Iranian regime would tell you that.

that regime has millions of people under arms, that the supreme leader. kind of sits on top of a very deep structure within. which the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the DC, is the strongest. And so nobody else thought the regime was going to collapse. Like, you know, that was wishful thinking. And then I also think that every national security decision. that I was a part of, and frankly, I would the same was true in the Bush years. And there's not a Partizan point. There's a very rigorous process, like you have to sit around the table.

and have everyone kind of. present their views in front of each other and then in front of the president. That is not how they make decisions. It's clearly Trump in the Oval Office, maybe sometimes. with a very small number of people. And he doesn't want to hear that it's not going to work. You know, he wants to hear that whatever he's inclined to do is the right thing. Right. So. is there a way out? Here is a man who campaigned on No more Forever Wars.

We're 13 weeks in and he seems flummoxed. He seems stuck. Is there a way out? There's a very clear way out. The the way out is he's going to have to accept he's. not going to accomplish any of the things he said at the beginning, that the Iranians are going to have to get a significant amount of revenue. from some form of sanctions relief, and the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.

Our our blockade will be lifted. And whatever nuclear deal is negotiated. is probably going to look quite like the Obama era nuclear deal. You know, restrictions on the Iranian program, not the elimination of it. So they're left with. for sort of health purposes, but the rest of it's taken away. Yeah. Our, our program, they shipped 98% of their stockpile out of the country. They accepted strict limitations on the number of centrifuges. they could operate. And they had all these inspections. And so all was left was the kind of nuclear capability.

that could produce medical isotopes. And then you had inspectors in there to make. sure that that's what they were doing, and they got access to some of. their frozen revenue from oral sales, because the way sanctions work is. and Trump constantly misrepresented, this is going to be interesting to watch. He made it seem like America paid Iran for this deal, when in fact all we did is. our sanction had frozen now well over $100 billion in Iranian revenue.

They sell a world of China or India or some other country. and they can't get the money. It's frozen, right, because they can't transit through the dollar and the financial system. And so you have to unlock some, not all of that revenue. That's that's what you're going to get. And that is wildly preferable to this. You know, like high gas prices, you know, consistent. violence, shortages of vital inputs to the global economy around the world. And frankly, if this continues,

one thing I worry about is Trump seems to think that. just because there's not like large scale violence every day, that it's. like not a war, the strait is still closed. Well, what's happening then? You may be able to help me with this, because I'm sort of fascinated by the fact. we were obsessed during Covid with the number of boats, the number of ships, you know, stacked with shipping containers that were idling outside. the ports in California, constant photos of them. Yet we know that, I think now 1700 tankers in the Persian Gulf completely trapped.

They've got people on board. They don't have enough resources. They've been stuck there for weeks. How did they. even if the strait is open tomorrow. How long does it take to get them moving? Well, many months. But. So if the if this is settled tomorrow, like, first of all, you have to. they're not going to go through there. unless they're assured that there's not mines. So it's going to take some time to do that.

And then just unblocking the logjam will take many months. But even more profoundly, the damage to energy infrastructure is worse. than I think the Trump administration has been willing to talk about. Like Qatar has the largest liquefied natural gas field. in the world that's been taken offline by Iranian strikes. That's years. It's going to take for that thing to come fully up and running. And what do we need liquefied gas for? Like what is that for? Well, in the UK, Qatari.

LNG is fundamental to home heating oil. Right. And countries use it for power for a source of power. And so I think. one thing that people have to realize is will be feeling the consequences. of this war in our economy, like for years, the, you know, the price of gas at our pump will come down slightly over time. There have been huge disruptions and fertilizer that comes through. that straight people will feel that in next year's harvest. and then in extras food prices in the same way, by the way,

that the Covid disruptions had a tail into inflation. We're still feeling the impacts of Covid. Do you think that Donald Trump understands that? I think. he understands some of it and doesn't care. I don't think Donald Trump cares about us. I don't think he cares about the future. I certainly don't think he cares about anything after he's president, because this is going to have a till that lasts until after he's president.

No, the most honest thing he says. is when he basically says, you know, I really don't care. I mean, the versions of him saying, I don't care that Americans are paying more at the pump, or I don't care that you can't afford child care. You know, we have to spend money on these wars. and not on the things that actually Americans want. Like, I don't think he's not sitting there worried. about his own voters who can't afford to fill up their gas tank. That's that's pretty clear. Yeah.

I mean, it's just an astonishing that we're going to end up. with a worse deal at the end of this war, by the looks of it, at a cost that is, you know, incalculable. It's it's not just the hundreds of billions of practical taxpayer costs. It's trillions of dollars in prices and economic output. Well, and to what extent do you think it's impacted. America's legacy abroad? I mean, with our well, with our allies first. And then let's talk about Russia.

Well, let's start in the Gulf. The Gulf Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar. The basic bargain of their society is that they provide security. and a measure of prosperity, and they get to have total control. And the way they provide. security is America is essentially the subcontractor for it. We broke that deal with them. This put them at enormous risk.

They've been devastated, some of them by Iranian strikes. Their economies have taken this massive hit. They saw that all the fancy air defense systems. that we had went to Israel and our bases and did not protect them. That's why we can't even see the videos of what happened in places like Dubai. And so and also, it seems unfathomable that, you know, do you buy, which is one of the busiest, most international airports in the world, was was being bombed? I mean, it's just, you know, it's the 21st century.

How is this possible that that this led to this? Well, that's the model of their society is broken. You know, they can say all they want, but I don't know that the tour is going to be coming back to Dubai, right? I don't know anybody that even wants to go via. Do you buy anywhere? Right. I think they used to pay influencers to come there and post pictures. and now they put in prison. If you post pictures, that says kind of in miniature, but I think those countries start. hedging against America and getting closer to China. The UAE might be the the least likely to do that.

But I think the Gulf states, who are the most cash rich countries. in a Caspar world, you know, turning to China over time, that puts the risk, the dollar as a reserve currency, because the reason the dollar's reserve currency. is because Petro trades are made through it. The Europeans are suffering more than we are economically because they're there. They're more dependent on energy resources from that region than we are. And they were not consulted. They were totally cut out of this. Well, and they were humiliated by Trump, who, when they wouldn't agree, he started going after them individually.

Yeah. So I think that they too are like, you know, should I go along with America's, you know, China policy or should I start doing kind of what Mark Carney is doing. and cutting my own trade deals with the Chinese and the Indians? It's not just about we're going to spend more on defense to support the Ukrainians. It's more fundamentally and again, these consequences are going to. a lot of them happen past Trump. So he doesn't care. But a world in which the Europeans aren't working with us in the same way in.

the Gulf, Arabs are working with us and everybody's kind of like the Chinese. I may not. like everything about those guys, but at least I know the terms of the deal. At least it's predictable. I think what we've done is massively accelerate a world. that is going to be oriented towards China and not the United States. And and if that starts to if that puts imperils a dollar reserve currency. Goodbye standard of living American people. Because the reason. even though you can't afford things, the reason you can afford what you can.

is because we're able to run up trillions of dollars in debt, right? Because everybody's got to deal with the dollar if that starts to go away. A lot changes. And where does Russia stand in this? Where does Russia stand to gain in all this? They two ways. I mean, in the short term, their entire economic models propped up by oral revenue. And so the price of oil is higher. They have more money. As simple as that.

I think more fundamentally, whereas China is trying to kind of build an alternative world order. Russia just wants everything to be chaos, right? So how much have you heard about Ukraine in this country recently? That's good for Russia, right? Right. Like like like, by the way, the whole premise of holding Russia. accountable for the war in Ukraine is you're not allowed to launch illegal wars. Well, you know, Putin's what about ism is now verified. You know, look what America did. They just started a dumb. illegal war two like he a world that kind of confirms Putin's.

narrative that there are no rules and big nations can do whatever they want. That's the world he wants. And so the Ron warrant a strange way that confirms his priors. And also, like the national security person, me would say. we have spent down like years worth of our ammunitions. Not only is that assistance that we can't give to the Ukrainians, like, that's just, you know, makes us a less credible deterrent. for China invading Taiwan or or Putin wants to test the waters.

in the Baltics, you know, so it's just it's not good. I mean, I really I can't identify like a good you know, the administration is reduced to saying, like, we destroyed some, you know, missiles and Iranian navy, like, worth. Okay. Like, was that worth this? Right. When you saw Putin coming for the visit with Trump in Alaska. and they were sort of walking. on the red carpet together, and then Putin gets in the beast. What sort of going through your mind?

This is the world. Trump once it's a world, there's strong men and he's one of them. It's a world in which there's three major powers. the United States, Russia and China. And they can kind of do whatever they want and make their own deals. And that he wants to do business with Russia. I think his his ultimate interest is for a personal family business in Russia. I think, Jared, people like Jared Kushner and Steve Wycoff would love to do.

real estate deals and critical minerals deals with the Russians. I can't imagine any way it'd be more difficult to build things than Russia. Actually, I don't know why they want to do that there. There are certainly easier places. Well, but but because the nature of strongman economics, like these guys like Putin and Erdogan and, you know, Orban was like this in Hungary, like they can grease the deals, right? And so you can make money. I mean, very notably, just to show I'm not like some conspiracy theorist, the person from Russia who had come and presented a quote unquote, peace.

proposal to to Wyckoff and Kushner in the lead up to that was not the foreign. minister, was not the head of the FSB, was not a Russian military official. It was the head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund. Right. The head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund. is not usually negotiate the end of a war in Ukraine. Putin showed up with a whole delegation of kind of ministers and businesspeople. right now, because Putin is so inflexible that he wouldn't give anything on Ukraine.

They couldn't make a deal because the Ukrainian, the Putin couldn't. present anything that the Ukrainians would ever accept. or that the Europeans would ever accept. But I'm sure Trump would have accepted it. I'm sure Trump would have accepted Putin's terms. Right. The reason the word an end. is because the Ukrainians and the Europeans, you remember the Europeans rushed to Washington. after that summit and were like, no, we're not going to press on. We're not going to lean on Zelenskyy to. except basically all of us completely unacceptable terms for, for. And also the Ukrainian people themselves, I mean, having thought they could rely on.

the US have realized they've done it and they've been magnificent frankly. Yeah, yeah. And also the use of drones, which has been a cheap way for them to attack. Well, they figured that out. And by the way, so the Iranians and this is the future of war, these are not expensive drones. I mean, I kind of chuckle. when I see these big defense tech firms here, like getting huge contracts. and not even just the corrupt ones, but even the kind of Palantir Jason ones. the Iranians are closest to, Hormuz was stuff that you could make in your garage.

The Ukrainians are kind of. turning the tide a bit against the Russians with thousands. It's it's it's a quantity game, not a quality game. Like the Ukrainians have figured that out, that like with with the right quantity. of drones, they can bombard the Russian front line. and they can target infrastructure deep into Russia. And that's where war is going. And and part of what the Iran were exposed is like aircraft. carriers and F-35s and like hugely expensive systems.

can open the strait. Right? Right. And a single drone can take closer closest. Yeah, right. Seriously. An engine room out. Yeah. A bunch of drones that literally are no bigger than that are much smaller. than this table can destroy one tanker and the rates close. So yeah. So the other thing that you were responsible for when you were. at the white House was Cuba. And of course Cuba is now up both your both your territories.

We indicted Raul Castro, as you saw two weeks ago. What do you think his. and all the signals seem to be that something is going to happen in Cuba? Clearly, Trump is bored with Iran. It's proving very difficult. He needs something new to keep him entertained. Looks like it could be Cuba. What are you hearing? Do you think about what might be in store for the Cubans? So I will say, like, get older, you do a little work on yourself.

and you do a little ego destruction. Right? And and what you, you know, come to realize is that you're. just like everybody else, right? We're all ordinary people. I may be unique in one way. I don't know that there's anybody else on earth. who can claim that they negotiated the normalization of relations with Cuba. at the same time that they were deep in the Iran nuclear deal, and now get to see both of the countries that I did that with, one. after the other guys like that, maybe that may be my like, yeah, yeah,

yeah, that maybe the unique, unique life experience I've had in the world. Look what I hear. First of all, this whole thing is totally ridiculous. It's much. And by the way, like, I kind of shame on all of us for not paying more attention. to the fact that this blockade of Cuba has is killed people. I was talking to somebody in. recently. who has family in Cuba, no fan of the government. His family member died because the hospital was shut down.

by power outage. A guy went into sepsis and couldn't get health care right, and. he, his family couldn't even be there to bury him. because there was no cooling in Cuba. So they had to bury him right away. Right, people, if you deny power, as we have to Cuba. because we're blockading any oral, getting in, people on ventilators die. Children in the NICU die like this is happening.

You talked I talked to journalists down there. So first of all, like, this is not like a game of risk. Like Trump makes it seem like. And what I think is going to happen. is I think they're trying to set up the Venezuela model like you indict. Castro, the 94 year old ex leader of Cuba. You send some Special Forces guys to go grab him in the middle of the night. I mean, 93 men. I don't know if he survives that. And you think that. I guess you can control what comes next in the politics of the country?

I think that's a deeply flawed assumption, and I don't even know why. I mean, why. I have theories of why they're doing it, but there's no national interest for the United States in that. Well, isn't the I mean, that does seem like. it could be a real estate grab that it's it's 90, right? It's 90 miles off the coast of Florida. Why wouldn't they turn it into a fabulous. That's all. So to me, Venezuela has all Cuba has real estate. I spent a lot of time in Cuba. That whole northern coastline of Cuba is a, you know, yes.

Some of the Cuban exile people in Miami and other places. care about the Cuban people, but some of them want that land. They want to build hotels and golf courses. And that's what Trump understands, right? I mean, they seem to be doing that everywhere. They want to do it in Gaza. They're trying to do it in Albania, in Russia now Cuba. They tried to do it in Serbia. The when I was still dealing with the Cubans in 2016, one reason. they weren't that worried about Trump, and they obviously should have been,

is that the Trump Organization was down there while Trump was running. for president, scouting properties for golf courses and hotels. There is a lot of very valuable land in Cuba, right? And so to me, this is about Marco Rubio's politics. in South Florida and real estate deals for the Trump family and their circle. And do you think that that in the end, given that. Cuba has been an incredible poverty for the last sort of 50, 60 years, do you think that in the end that's actually a good thing for Cuba?

No, because what I worry is that it. won't be that simple, that the place might actually implode. And so there's a scenario. Yeah. I mean, if frankly, we were not trying to do something, we weren't trying to, like, enrich ourselves, we were trying to open the place up. And part of what we thought would happen. is that there would be a bunch of development. and kind of a tourism economy, and that'd be good. So yes, like I non corrupt version of that,

which is an evolution of the Cuban government to be less. repressive and their standards of living get better. I mean first of all you could do that tomorrow if you just lift the embargo. because the Cubans one investment and just go in. Right. What I worry about is this, like there's that place is desperate. You take out Castro or the leadership, all hell breaks loose. People start looting the hotels, the military, the guys with guns.

You tend to be the worst guys. They start shooting people. Criminal elements from other parts of the Americas. Cartels are like, well, look, we got an island close to America. Let's move in there. And suddenly you have something approximating Haiti, and you have kind of mass migration of people into Florida. And then we're sending in the Marines to create the stability. for the real estate deals. I mean, maybe that won't happen, but there's a high enough chance. that that might happen, that it's not worth the risk of sending. a bunch of Delta Force guys or Navy Seals to grab a 94 old man.

Right? And goodness knows, Cuba is felled. American presidents. Well, that's the thing. The Bay of pigs seemed like a good idea on paper. Two. Yeah, right. So have you been to see the Obama library yet? Not since it was like, you know, I saw it under construction. I've not seen the finish. I'm going to the opening in June 18th. Right. And I was going to ask you and this actually was a question. from one of our writers and contributors who writes The Simpsons. And I was saying, I've got Ben Rhodes coming in the South noon.

What would you ask him? And she said to your point that you worked on Iran and Cuba, and both now have sort of been turned 180 degrees. What do you do to self soothe? How do you how do you survive watching a centrally. you work criticized, torn apart and then broken apart. Well the criticism the funny thing is I became kind of a. right wing villain at the end of the years. And, you know, they really beat the hell out of me online.

And, and that used to get to me, but. that I kind of learned to, you know, just switch off. Switch off, like, I don't I don't read the that stuff. And, and frankly, all the people that do it. have proven themselves to be the worst version of themselves. So like, who cares? Well, I was thinking largely of, of of Trump. Just think it's the worst deal ever. Obama. Yeah, exactly. And now he's completely so. but trapped between the Israelis and the Iranians, which is probably the worst place for anybody.

Nobody wants to be there. But but no, it's very painful. And, you know, my, my, my positive thing I do is I'm a runner, which kind of empties my head. And I love out in LA. And so I can run on the beach and kind of look at the ocean. and realize that the world is much bigger than all this. And, you know, the Trump's and Putin's of the world, or, you know, there's the ocean. It was here before then. We'll be there after them. Soothing. I mean, thankfully, it's a I live in a state with legalized marijuana. That's that's so good.

It's not a bad way to check out. sometimes if, you know, like, you just want to unplug. and and actually, I mean, I honestly, it's not just a bookstore of like. history. Like I, I found comfort in writing, actually, I chose to write a history book, in part. because I wanted to get out of the present. You know, it's like both to realize that, you know, as insane. as everything feels now, like that happens every now and then, like we.

and I think about this a lot. Like we're in it, like we're in one of those periods. Like we weren't when I was a kid. Like, things look pretty good in the 90s. Pretty good through the arts. Even though we had nine, 11 Obama years, you know, like bumpy stuff was happening. Global financial crisis. But again. Well, now, you know, we're in the 30s. or the 60s like, this happens, you know, periods of disruption. I mean, we had Kurt Andersen in last week and he was reminded me of Andrew Jackson.

inviting people to the white House when he was inaugurated. And they, of course, toward the place, out the place I stole everything, smashed it up, and he had to be extricated through a window. Yeah. So it sort of does it does happen. So in your book, you talk about and again, just to remind people it's, it's a study of American identity. through 15 different speeches, not all of them presidential. But you talk about the crowd that's gathered for Trump's second inauguration,

and you have all the leaders of the social media companies. obviously sitting there, and you've got Jeff. Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg, and you've got the crew from Google. Is it possible? Do you think in the age of social media. and you, you criticize them for sort of demolishing our attention spans? Do you think it's possible ever to go back or. ever to. have a rousing political speech again,

that people don't have the attention span to sit through it, that it will only ever be snipped up and and sent across the airwaves? Yeah, I think it's it's not only possible, but it's actually necessary. One of the things I, you know, you learn things in writing a book, and one of the things I learned is how much what. people say, like the political storytelling, to use. a phrase, is, is been driven throughout history by technology. So, you know, I start with Benjamin Franklin.

In those days, you give a speech, the only people can hear her in the room, right? Then it's reprinted in newspapers. So that was kind of like an essay like speech 19th century, around the time when people like Douglas, there's a speaker circuit. So you're traveling around the country given the same speech hundreds of times. That starts to favor, like a certain degree of performance, oratory, right? Then radio comes along. That favors kind of plainspoken explanation. FDR mastered this, right? Like I'm going to explain things to you. You can listen to it in your living room, then TV in that favor,

spectacle and charisma. like King and Kennedy, like the big crowds and the charismatic figure. Well, now we're in the age of the internet and social media. And what that's done is. people don't consume whole arguments anymore. They don't watch, you know, in the way, when I was a speech in the Obama campaign, I still knew that a big speech, like some people. would watch the whole thing on television or read the transcript online. Now, all you get is an algorithmically.

designed the reason, you know, those people like Elon and Zuckerberg. are so symbiotic with Trump is their business model, is. we are going to deliver something that is algorithmically designed to either. make you really angry at the people you hate, or really reinforced. in the sense that you're right and Trump is the perfect figure. for that age because his speeches are kind of one hour rants and rallies.

where he knows nobody's going to consume all that other than the absolute diehards, but the next day it's just going to the social media will do its work for him. The platforms of Zuckerberg and Musk will will hand. deliver that into everybody's feeds and polarize them. And I truly believe that. unless we learn how to counter, program that and tell, like make whole arguments and tell a story about. what is going on and make people believe that we can get out of this.

Because I think what Trump has in common with those tech oligarchs. is they want to make people believe it can change. It has to be this way. You couldn't possibly regulate social media. You couldn't possibly regulate artificial intelligence. You don't even understand it. Or the political system is so dysfunctional that it could never do it. Well, that's absolutely absurd. Of course we can do it. This is democracy. We could choose to do that if we wanted to do it.

And if you look at our history, the Gilded Age was followed by the Progressive ERA. Like this country is ripe for some real reform, but I think it requires making arguments again. So if you're thinking about writing speeches again. for another Democratic leader who is out there that enthuses you, so I and again, I talk a little bit in here about, you know, the history, the movements, the people that did this,

but also the what makes the speech work. And, and to me, it's people who don't just tell you what they want to do. They tell you why they want to do it. They give you a sense of their motivation, and they connect dots for people. They tell a whole story about what's happening. It's not a list. And when I look at the Democrats, it's interesting. I'm so everybody sick of these Democrats that are that seem. so afraid of losing that they talk like nobody's ever spoken before. You know, like Biden and Harris both had this phrase.

It drove me nuts. It was a we need an economy that works from the bottom up to the middle out. It's like just fine as hell. Does that mean, like some consultant focus group? That. But it doesn't mean a thing. There's no people in that. We're gonna look at younger Democrats. Like, when I look at a Jon Ossoff, he's telling a story that connects those dots. for people about why the corruption is leading to the outcomes. Right. Like that, that when a click of people can do. whatever they want, like, here's why that means you can't afford things.

So you're connecting the corruption to the impact of people in real life. That's right. Where I look at it. Talarico. What he does well, James Taylor you go in Texas, what he does. well is I'm going to really give you a sense of my motivation. His faith compels him to believe. that you have to care for your neighbor, which leads to the policy. Democrats sometimes lead with the policy, not the motivation. The motivation is where you get the connection with the audience or. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, what she has that I like that.

the kind of activists in this book had is she's in the face of all these powerful. and frankly, Mamdani has it to she's fearless and joyful, you know, joyous story short, Democrats have been for the whole Trump decade were grim, you know, and angry. like the Obama campaign was the most joyful thing I was a part of. And guess what? People want to be a part of that. And if they see that an AOC's out there is out there and some people. are beating the heck out of them and they they seem like they don't care.

That makes them less afraid to. It makes people feel like, well, you know. the shit out of her. But like, she seems to be doing it with a smile on her face, like, maybe I want to join that, you know? So these younger Democrats have figured it out. And I think part of the reason why. people are so frustrated with the older Democrats is one they won't leave. and but two, like, they they don't sound. like people like these, these younger generation. They sound more like, you know, people, you know,

do you think Graham Plattner is going to end up being the candidate? I mean, I know he's currently. the candidate, but Janet Mills, the governor of Maine, who wanted that seat to to run against Susan Collins, do you think given the the drama around him, which he seems to explain away, I think he's rather. convincing the way he explains it away and says, well, I've changed. And, you know, God forbid that we're judged on all our previous behaviors.

Do you think he's actually a good example of that? Yeah, I like Graham Plattner. I spent a bunch of hours talking to him for a piece I wrote in part about him. for The New York Times. And look, that guy saw some terrible stuff, right? I mean, he was in as a marine, was a marine. So when he was a marine infantryman, you know, he and I know this, by the way, that the piece was fact checked with people that served with him. He saw people he was close to get blown apart.

He saw kids get blown apart in his 20s. So the idea and by the way, I know a lot of veterans and I know. a lot of other people who've been in wars, refugees who've been through trauma. The idea that that guy would go to some pretty dark places. for pretty long time is pretty credible to me. Like, if he didn't, by the way, that'd be strange. And so am I. Here to defend everything that Graham Platner has done? Absolutely not, I will say, and this is what I really don't like about.

the Democrats that are piling on Platner or some of the cynical stuff with him. This is why people don't go into politics. Like if you want normal leaders, if you want people. that are recognizable to you and they're going to look out for your interests, and then you make a barrier to entry that, oh, shit. If I go into politics, someone's going to do it with my Reddit history. Or, you know, I had an affair 15 years ago, or. I mean, my God, like, all we're going to be left with.

is like MAGA Republicans who feel no shame about those things. And so they get elected. Or the, you know, the person who is running for president. from when they were 15 years old, that is usually someone. that people don't like that much, right? You know, like I, we I actually feel pretty strongly about it. And again I Graham platinum I don't know him that well. Maybe he did terrible things like I'm just saying. that the kind the idea that.

we're. going to we're going to say, you know what, you're out. Well, what does that say to any veteran that you know or anybody with anything. in their past, that the Democratic Party is a place where a bunch of. I thought we were over cancel culture here, you know, like, what are we doing? People like, I actually feel pretty strongly about this. Like, this is between him and his wife or and I don't care. But it's like subreddit from 15 years ago. Give me a break. You know that. Sorry, you got me.

I don't know why. That's something brought me up. Well, I've been I've been kind of watching this out of the corner of my eye. and not getting it and not understanding, like, what are we what are we doing here? Okay, so let's go back to the the octogenarian career. politician that was losing by 40 points in the polls. Like that's your pathway to victory I. It doesn't make any sense. Well your book makes a lot of sense. Highly recommend it. And thank you so much for coming in to talk to us. It's really fascinating.

And and, you know, literally you have the two. most relevant countries in your. Unfortunately. Yeah. Yeah. Thanks a lot. It's great talking to you. I love talking to Ben Rhodes. And I really want to recommend his book. You can dip in and out of it. You can focus on just one speech, and it really covers. the sort of complexity of what it feels like to be an American now. And of course, ever since the Benjamin Franklin speech.

that he starts with the sort of complicated evolution of America, the two steps forward, one step back, and, well, I guess we're in the one. step back phase at the moment. Anyway, if you have been, thank you for joining us. Don't forget to subscribe. We are independent media, so we appreciate your support. And we're really trying to get to a million subscribers. by the end of the year. Big thanks to our production team Ryan Murray, John Romero, Rachel Passa, Heather Pesaro and Neil Rosenhaus. So the good news is we have so many beast tier members now.

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