Carville’s Shock Prediction Will Terrify Trump | The Daily Beast Podcast

Even Trump, in his. own primitive way, knows the Republicans will get slaughtered in November. So he's trying to lay the groundwork. for to have something like just because what they do know, what scares me is they can't have a free and fair election. That that is an utter disaster for them. So a lot on every level, they know that they're going to do everything they can to stop it. It's just it's just literally. that's where we are. We and expect the worst, expect the worst.

I'm Sarah. You always with the Daily Beast podcast filling in for Joanna Coles today. Our guest is James Carville, the legendary political strategist and consultant. He is going to make some bold predictions about the midterms. Dig into Trump's record low approval and tell us. who comes out on top as Americans see these never ending airport lines. But before we dig into the show,

please take a moment to share this podcast with your friends. Invite them to subscribe to The Daily Beast YouTube channel. We've thankfully reached 500,000 followers. and we're gunning for 1 million with your help. So here's our show with James Carville. So just going to jump right in here. I mean, Democrats this week flipped Trump's Mar-A-Lago. district by double digits.

It was a state special election. But what does this say to you about where we're headed with the midterms? Oh, this is interesting. This has happened ever since Trump has been elected in November of 2024. It's consistent 12 to 14 point over the fall. And it's irrespective of geography. Doesn't matter if it's Florida. It doesn't matter if it's Pennsylvania. It doesn't matter if it's California, doesn't matter if it's Mississippi. The other thing is there was a state Senate seat. that flipped, which is actually more important.

because the vacancy was when the. governor picked the then state senator to be lieutenant governor. Now, you've been around politics long enough to know. they are only going to pick somebody from a safe seat. because they don't want to lose a seat, a stake in the state Senate. But they lost it, which was a giant blow internally to Ron DeSantis a bit. He's not going to be governor after this year anyway. So what we're seeing is. double digit. performance everywhere in Mar-A-Lago is no different than any other place.

You just happened to be where the vote. But it's not. That's consistent with any other place. I mean, we're talking about usually saying a competitive race. as a 2 to 3 point race. Are you expecting that places where there was. a double digit win by a Republican in 2024? Those are now considered competitive looking at November. Well, I think the best way to look at November is. if you if you just take election returns.

and you take the polling and the aggregate, I mean, you know. Yeah, you know, everybody has their favorite poll aggregator. They're also about the same. The question is did is the over under. for Democratic Senate seats I think is 55. I'm not I really believe that if you took if you're running. 1011 points consistently ahead of 2024, performance, you're looking at a lot. I mean, once you start going north, the five things start to fall.

And every piece of evidence we have thus four indicates a death. What's happening now? Can you come back and say, well, you said this in late. March and here we are in October, and you said, and something different. Yeah. Because when the facts change, I've changed my mind. But right now. you mambo 100%. Change is 55. I would be semi disappointed it was 53 Democrats rate. So your prediction right now is. Democrats will take both the House and the Senate with ease at this stage.

Now not not just take but I mean I'm talking about. the dog eight Senate seats or something like that. But if you look at it where we are at this moment, I don't know how a person could honestly draw another conclusion. to conclusion because, well, once people's partizanship. starts to kick in and people are Trump, people see what's at stake. That's fine and dandy, but right now there is all of the evidence. for the point of 50 or more Senate seats in a Democrat.

I'm curious, when it comes to Trump, he did endorse in these state. special elections his candidate specifically in his own district, lost. When it comes to the Trump endorsement, is that a good thing for Republicans? When we look ahead to the general election, he has a lot of power in the primary. But what does that mean to you in the general course? It doesn't help in the general at all over. And of course, you want to run against Trump in Texas. Remember Trump is 12 points down to wanted Texas. Okay. Just.

let him endorse it. Now. Now he's scared the primaries. And you know what? If you talk to a Republican senator, Congress. said, look, I got to get through the primary. If I get through that, I'll worry about the general. But I mean, the idea. So to fight you live another day. But I think increasingly you're starting to see. you're starting to see Nancy match, who's in a tight primary for governor, saying, I'm not just I'm not for troops on the ground, walk out of there. And you starting to see Mike Rogers,

who's a Republican from Alabama, saying he's a big deal committee chair. I said, we're not getting the answers on why we're there. And you see, Roger Wicker, who's a Republican senator of Mississippi, said, well, I don't see anything. that Congressman Rogers says that I disagree with. I mean, what these things start to. break, they continue to break and they get one go. and break, gets wide and I see every indication of that happening. And just given the general political climate, I would expect that to happen.

I do want to talk about the war in Iran shortly. But before I go there, I do want to just say Democrats, they would want Trump on the campaign trail at that stage. That's a good thing for them. You think? Oh yes. I mean a place for you. You he could actually help Republicans, but you're not going to win that anyway. Maybe you can still help in Russia, Virginia, Tennessee and maybe have. I'm not even I think it's a lot closer. Probably people think probably Arkansas. Idaho, Wyoming.

But once you get past those, you get into thin territory. If you look at all of the states where he's under war, it's. very few that he's out. He's the proof is hard and it's just brutal. And I got to probably get worse. Yeah, it's interesting because he promised he would endorse. in that Texas Senate race you brought up. But he has since not endorsed and said he would do it soon. Obviously, Ken Paxton, was hedging and wasn't saying. he would drop out if he endorsed Senator Cornyn.

But do you expect these to be ongoing challenges? I mean, that runoff isn't until May. But it's looking. ugly or an ugly hour for Republicans just to get through this primary cycle. But Ken Paxton, make one bring it political votes. He said if the Senate passes to say back, I'll drop out. So now. Trump can't I mean that was like I of not a the chess player. But that was a brilliant move. It is a British player has a double finesse.

Wait, he said, okay, I'll get out of you. And of course doom is who's put $77 billion in Collins campaign. He have more. Do it because then we're getting a filibuster, because he knows that 55 Democratic senators are coming. So he's trying to in this in this caucus know is that make. this people have to think beyond the next minute. And they're not going to break a filibuster for him. And then Paxton can tell Trump going, couldn't get it done for you. I would. That it's literally that simple.

Curious about what your thoughts are on President Trump this week. He voted in the special election in Florida by mail. He's doing it while he is, attacking. vote by mail, part of the Save America Act that you mentioned. Is this whole thing about the elections being wrecked, his ongoing spiel. literally just this week, he called it cheating, and then he went and used it himself in the special election. What do you make of that? It's what we've known about Donald Trump since he's burst on the scene. He's a massive and blatant hypocrite.

And the fact that he's engaged in hypocrisy. is the ultimate dog bites man story. If you ever did something that was not hypocritical, you would say, wow, this is something different. But he does it every election. It's the same thing over and over. And of course, would you and I know is. there's very little voter fraud in the entire exchange. And you can't say there's none, but it's almost. harmless. It's hard to fight.

You got to look really hard to go up with it. And he is trying to do everything he can. to shed people's confidence in the election. so he can say, I'm not paying attention to it, but he's going to try something to to to mess with the election. What it is, I don't know, but we need to be prepared at all cost. I am curious about that. I mean, how do you think Democrats should combat. the threats, of the president to undermine the upcoming election.

when he talks about cheating and the election being rigged, what should they be doing at this stage to, to combat some of that come November? Well, are things that I think it's. that you have all of these voter suppression laws that in pass. He doesn't want you to have the election in other words, what I would. if I were Democrats, I'd say that's all the more reason. for you to go out and vote. They're trying to make it hard for you. They think they think you all vote. If we make the line five minutes longer, you show them you're going to vote.

I would turn this into some level of positive energy on the part of Democrats. You know, he doesn't think he's capable of showing up in cash and your vote. and the people in your county. or your parish or your township or wherever that midst of the election, you know, they can count and show them and go up and vote. I would make it is voting is a if you will, of active defiance. is that always rallies Pete that could be a point. where they push back, if you will, the rallying cry.

if I if I tell this thing that will make. you want to do something more than anything else, if I if I tell you you can't do that, it wouldn't be it for you not to. Boston. Make them make me want to do it more. So if somebody says, don't read this book. because it's a dirty book, then. you don't go out and buy the book and read the book. because they're telling you not to not to read it. So all of human nature is. people, and particularly Americans, rebel against being told what to do.

Now, the Democrats were traditionally like, no, happy. government is good for you. We really trying to help. And this is the one instance where we have a chance to flip the script. We can be the rock, we can be the outsiders. We can be the power, the establishment, the giant corporations, the tech companies, the grifters, the Bitcoin people. They don't want you to vote, but you know about you have the power in your hands. not to be told what to do about a giant conglomerate of people.

who want to take advantage you that that's my. Yeah. To turn it around if I what I'm saying. Tell people they're telling you you can't do this. You show them that you can't. I'm curious James, I mean what for you is the most concerning. What keeps you up at night about the November midterm election. That he's going to try to seize ballots. They're going to already doing that. He's going to try to put federal forces on the ground. in that real trouble erupt.

And the trouble becomes contagious. in his friends because he just literally. playing with. more than dynamite here. He she's priority napalm. And what really keeps me up at night. is that he will that he tries. Yes. And then there's some flashpoint. There's some incident. And the next thing you know, the in a of course, that's exactly what he wants to do.

And he can claim where else to bite it. I have two hours to plan harsher all by myself. President fair so that. Yes, that's that's what keeps me up. Is. that we have an. overreaction to what he's almost certainly going to be. I'm curious because Steve Bannon this week, the MAGA architect behind Trump's first campaign, he was talking about the Ice agents being sent into airports. And he was saying how that is like basically a test ground. for November's election.

They're not running the screenings. But they can check IDs. Is that something you could see happening under the Trump administration, if, of course, I can't. But the idea of having Ice agents in airports is terrifically unpopular. But look, understand this Bannon is odious. Is he as a person? He's I'm sure he's smarter now than any of them on that side. The court. Right. And yes, what he's trying to do, Bannon knows. And even Trump in his own primitive way, he knows that the Republicans. will get slaughtered in November.

So he's trying to lay the groundwork for. to have something like just because what they do know, what scares me is they can't have a free and fair election, that that is an utter disaster for them, that, again, that's 57. Senate seats, 248 House seats out our door. Can't translate it, but it's a lock on on every level. They know that they're going to do everything they can to stop it. It's it's just literally.

that's where we are. We can expect the worse, expect the worst. In terms of the president, you mentioned him getting slaughtered. He has record low approval right now. I think to this week it hit 36% approval. Is there any way you see him being able. to dig out of that trench between now and November? You know I, I don't and how I ask other people. All right, give me the scenario where if he comes. back and gets the 43.5, which would probably cost him the house, but not to sell, well,

it have to be, you know, a real spurt of economic growth. By the way, the oh, see, a big international economic. forecast says we're facing 4.2% inflation. I okay, somehow or another, they're all idiots and they're wrong. But we have 1.2% variation, that the Iranian. government decides to establish a parliament into right and, and hold free and fair elections.

and allow, U.S. bankers on Iranian soil at that. If you ask me to fantasize hard to turn around, I guess that. that would be one of the ways that. a combination of those things happening now, how likely they are. I'll lead back to anybody else's mind. That desert happens or be. The question is, what is more likely he's that 30, let's just say 38%. Let's just give it a even number, a consensus.

in on October. the 15th is that number more likely to be 35 or 41, or just stay at 38? And yet my predictive abilities are no better than anybody else's. But I kind of bet on 35. It's fair enough. Do you think Republicans, in terms of the midterms, move on to some other subjects? Do you think they're going to come to regret. their whole push to redistrict based on the president's polling?

What we've seen with all these shifts in districts, these special elections, they're still pushing, including in Florida, for redistricting. and some of these cases. Do you think that's going to come back to haunt them? Well, I heard I saw a presentation about a month ago from David Washington. I think most people would agree is the kind of resident expert. on redistricting in House seats. And and he said, as a result of all of this, the Democrats have netted a half a half say. that at the end of the day, when you add up Texas. and California and Virginia and Indiana, and the public.

does not much like this, that. there is a referendum, right, in Virginia. I've been kind of curious, and I'm. definitely about if presidential. I've had a journey to date Democrats. Going back to our point, I'm curious to see how that turns out. Did admit, the public is fairly uneasy what she saw. that manifests itself even in an Indiana state Senate. Yeah, I watched that one very closely.

And that was a rare case where we saw Republicans at the state level, really. just the same thing happened. It didn't get the Senate a lot of obviously patrol. popped and said, no, we're not going to do that. And because they know it, this. is crazy people. It's crazy, you know? But I think a country here in the country is, first of all, we're not evenly divided. We're an overwhelmingly anti-Trump country. and all but poured cold MAGA people in this country retain the sense of panic.

Said, hey, there's separate election. Everybody vote whoever wins except in robbery, and look at the consequences. That's clearly not where Trump is, but I think that's where the country is. And it's going to be a hard slog between now and November to get to. And we just look at a shows like yours. We got to be vigilant. We got to warn people. We go there to prepare for anything. You mentioned the MAGA Republicans not being a majority.

I found it kind of comical. We were talking about the Iran war and a lot of folks out of the white House. that the comms team were touting the strong support. for the Iran war among MAGA Republicans as their base in terms of. there is support behind it was their argument. Of course, they also were going to what they would call fake news polls. to show these, the, the, the support that they say is out there. But you're saying. MAGA Republicans are in the, in the middle and the minority at this point.

So what do you make of those those white House comms. where they're really just pushing all this stuff that's just very pro-Trump, but not based in reality? Well, certainly. First of all, Magnus, maybe two thirds of the Republican Party, it's I'm just that I don't have a definitive number for that. I'm sure people can mine that data to come up with a but it's it's. not it's not 92% of it, I can tell you that with some. And if you look at his Republican approval, his disapproval is now 13,

14, 15. That's what is best for people to understand, to see. Well, among Republicans, he's 85, 13, the duck rate among Democrats. He's 97, you know, 397 well, that's a big differential here. And, you know, there's a lot of if you look at more of Boebert, I mean, even, you know, Marjorie Taylor Greene, you start to see some of the even, you know, really MAGA people like work or Tucker.

Joe can't you know, we really believe this, Eddie. And a bunch of stuff, man. We really did. I mean, some people were of just any ambition is today called core. And a lot of them, you know, a sizable number one MAGA. Yes. Just some say Trump said it, I believe it, okay, that those people. were not going Cheney for Herschel, but they're not the only two thirds of 40%.

They're not nearly 51% of the country. You talk about that 13% Republicans. I mean that's a that's a huge amount when it comes to margin. or likely to continue to grow that. that's a number that everybody says he's still solid with Republicans. And if you look at and you go, well maybe. he's got to be more solid than he is now, I bring that up also because, I mean, where you talk to people and you start to see some of the decline. I mean, we have the Iran war, which I'll get to,

but we also have this chaos going on in Washington. And I want to talk about the chaos going on on Capitol Hill. I mean, the president demanded that DHS funding be attached. to his Save America Act, which is about voting. And then he really immediately had to back off of that. because Republicans were rushed over to the white House and essentially. talked him down on this ultimatum for Democrats. But I want to get your thoughts. on who is really in control right now when it comes to Republicans.

They have the white House. They have the House, they have the Senate. But there appears to be some chaos. And it just continually brews as we're in the shutdown that's going on. I mean, we're approaching the longest shutdown in history for DHS. Well, the one person that we know. that is not in charge yet has no gang fines is Mark Johnson. I mean, literally the guy you I guess you could say he's there. He's got to be the most effective. and compliant speaker of the House.

that's ever been. On the Senate side, remember this TSA thing? Let me point out that Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana and Senator Cruz. worked out something to keep it out, and Trump said he agreed to it. So they pulled it back. That's not carrots and croutons. You that we had worked out a deal with all or. about one vote we could openness and he chose not to. It was just come a time that.

So it's probably going to be after the election. Unfortunately that's how I go say, well, wait, wait a minute. Where the first branch of government, I think the economy should establish. in article one of the Constitution or what it means to be in article one. But the Founders Times, a pretty important institution. that found the church and purposes, no longer exists. So one of the things that will probably happen after November will go. Now y'all go back to heaven, bro. Can you say Supreme Court is a separate branch of government? But at least we could have one and a half branches, a baby versus more than I am.

You think there's going to be some kind of Wake-Up. call among Republicans after the midterms? Or you think because Democrats are going to take back the majority, you know, it's one thing to, like, anticipate. We're getting hit in the mouth by Mike Tyson. You feel like. it's another thing to actually get kicked in the mouth by Mike Tyson. Okay, I got hit in the mouth by Mike Tyson in 1994. You have no idea. In his.

Yes. I can't unless you've seen it. You can't describe it. And what's going to happen is everything. Every narrative is going to change. Every cable TV job that there's a lot of alignment and a Democratic boss. on the 30 and Hispanics and suburban women and AARP. and all that is just going. sucked right out of the door, and they're going to be faced with a highly energized. Democratic Party and for a moment, about as united as you can get.

And they're going to be face in despair. Now, what do they do? I don't know, they might say. we just double down where we are or how we extricate ourselves from this. And what? Take it all, wake up and find out is Trump didn't care about them. You know, they all want to win reelection. They like having staff members and people vote in a laundry. And Brian, first guy doesn't get picked up a diaper. You know, a lot of them are going to go by the wayside. and they're going to get angry at him, I really do.

I think the residual anger that it's come is very pretty knowledgeable. You think it's going to be a lot more Marjorie Taylor Greene's in the mix. Yeah, I think I'll bring. But I think Marjorie Taylor Greene is kind of an independent minded woman. And she just walked away. And I'm not. I'm. I'm not that I exist for him. I have my own environment. And you start to see that more and more in what Republicans say. Well, look, I, I kind of agree with James, but I can't do anything. I did Cuba quote, but you can just go back home anyway if they'll matter.

Your dad understand that you got no hope. They got to lose 45ft and you can't do anything to stop it. And he's not going to do it. And he put you in this position and he's not going to do one thing, but to help in the only advantage they have is the money advantage, which just is more corruption than you could imagine. You you could you can imagine. And you just they can't they can't raise enough.

special interest money to overcome the anger that people have that you can't. There's not that much money in the world at the same time, I mean, it. does it feel like Democrats are like also seeing. that kind of money race? And it doesn't really work the same way. It used to. I mean, we've seen races where there's been floods of money, that they it's done nothing. And in this case you talk about it being just corruption and blatant corruption. I mean, that feels like that. could be something that rallies Democrats more than Republicans.

Well, I think it should. And the reason is about the Democrats are perfect, but we have no power. So some political money tends to follow political power. Now, it also follows the anticipation of political power. So there's a lot of PACs. There's a lot of donors out there, baby, listening to the show and says, look, for. between now and. November, it's smart lighting up the Republicans,

which better get straight here, because come January, the third of 2027, you're going to be faced with a whole different world. And as that. reality sets in to that community, I mean, you're going to see a pickup in high end Democratic fundraising. And I think I think, Logan, Democratic fundraising is fine for right now. I mean, in terms of then where we're at on the Hill, they're they're. failing to reach a deal to end this partial shutdown. I mean, we're seeing airport lines.

I don't know where about where you are, but talking about BWI chaos, here in Baltimore, local airport is having insane lines. We've seen crazy lines in Houston. Is this something that Democrats should fear they could get blamed over. at any point in this? Not really. Get too worried about, because the Republicans are in total charge of the government. But there was actually a Republican solution that Trumpcare. this is a Trump understand in the coming election.

There's one issue in one issue over Trump. Nothing else matters. Okay? If you like it, vote Republican. If you don't vote Democrat. I can't make it any simpler than that. If you talk about the TSA. You can argue, well, we put this in order to separate that out. Bill. We wanted to stand alone, wanted to bond Americans that. the Republicans eight government they love shut me down. They love shutting TSA down there even came to the point where they tried.

to add a a credible plan to reopen it. And of course, Trump is the reason that is quiet. This is a trump. You cannot say the word trump too much in a sense. And if you say Republicans, excuse me, I'll make Trump practice the mirror same. I will not say ten words were not mentioned in Trump's. name to our father in heaven, hallowed be the right. Drop it. I don't know if the Lord's Prayer and Trump really belong together.

I'm going to make it up. I'm using an exaggerated point to say. you can't bring him enough into the fray. I understand, I understand where you're going with that. I do want to ask you about well or on the Trump. I. was watching him this week. I mean, you could have been watching him since. February 28th, or he's been going back and forth over Iran. and whether the US is winning this war or whether he'll even call it a war, while calling it a war minutes earlier in in some cases this week.

But he said the US has won the war. At the same time, though, we are sending thousands of U.S. troops to the region. It's not clear really where this is headed. Republicans on Capitol Hill this week. and us that there are frustrated about not getting answers. What does this all suggest to you? The reality of Trump giving mixed messaging. But declaring a victory through it all? Well, it goes back to the origin, the reason of the origin of the war.

Never forget it. The reason it's a talk is because Trump, quote, felt it in his bound, unquote. Now his most famous bone is is bone. alleging made up bone spur. that got him to stay out of there. Not. But he said the only reason we do. this is because of his bunch. Well, his bones are stupid, is his brain. and I think Republicans increasingly know.

that they're like Mike Rogers or Roger Rick Victor. They're saying it. Oh, wow. There's no reason for this. They never gave us a reason. And, you know, Phil Clay was up there on the, reward articular estate where I served in Iraq. I could have told you I was there. Yeah, it turned out to be not a very good reason, but there was reason. There's no. no body. No, no bearing.

It hits the ground anywhere. I can tell you what he's doing. They're very faithful. because no one. Nope. Trump doesn't even know. So he you know, sometimes if you fight for something like the Iraq war, it. there was a reason it it on the surface it looked like a good reason. But it didn't work out. It turned out to be true. that you could use American military right to reform people into being small. The Democrats, that that was. But it was always.

okay. It you could actually articulate. No one can articulate why are we there. It does feel like they're trying to scramble for an off ramp at this point. I mean, do you see an off ramp here where they are able to move forward? That isn't one politically? Detrimental for them in November or two, where it doesn't make them just look like they have egg on their face. So my my favorite movie and you should rewatch it is Gandhi. And so they had this long conference table in this British.

colonial administrator, high end agent at a Crown. says, you don't think that we're just going to get up and walk out of here, do you? And Gandhi says, yes, that's exactly what you're going to do. You're going to get up and just walk out of here, right? So what are we going to do? We just got to get up. and go home. at night. He may try to get some statement.

or declaration or something, but we just delete. Leave. that for just. take Dr. Gerald Ford, reassign it to the South China Sea, bring everybody back rebuilt, rebuild ordnance, bring all of the stuff we got, say, hey, we got a lot more serious things to do in this world. You know, our orders had been depleted, which is we're running out of bombs. If people don't realize that there is a finite number of bombs. Yeah. And we've had but I read 17,000 different targets in Iran.

You know what pounding saying I'm now. And the one thing we know is if. if you bomb people, they tend not to like it. I can't imagine why somebody would not want to be. bombed in a building tonight, but apparently they don't like it. I'm curious what your thoughts were if he saw it at all. And earlier this week where he was talking about Iran and how they gave the US, this presence, and he wouldn't say what this present was,

apparently it left white House aides baffled. What what were your thoughts on that. when you saw that, if, if at all, in terms of letting it up there, my first thought was do emoluments clause of the Constitution. But then I busted out laughing. Why? Why why would that check? And it's a it's a. it a. If you make stuff up. it's like it sounds like. Because if he says that, it sounds like this. But my people will believe that they're trying to suck up to me.

because I'm winning the war, but I shouldn't be at. That's all. Yeah, it's just another. just another lie. and you'll never know because there's nothing there to bot about it. It is. Well, that sounds good. I'll just say, I mean, in terms. of getting out of this situation, if if the negotiations do move forward, who in this administration do you have confidence in in negotiating. We had, Jared Kushner, we had Steve Whitcomb that we bombed.

We have J.D. Vance apparently getting in and Marco Rubio has been in it. The throughout I mean, who. who would you have confidence in, in this administration to move forward? The one that gets the biggest bribe? I don't know, wake off Jared. Who it is. But if anything happens. that somebody is going to get the license to build a resort. on the Persian Gulf, I don't know, whatever they do, I just, open up.

all cut me a shot. But that that's that's a pipe. You know, usually a career diplomat should have ethics rules. and things that they followed there. So this our side? No. Not now. We just go right to. I mean, there's all kinds of stories that say, you know, do. arithmetic on how much the Trump family has made since. the election and it's I've, I've heard figures it's $4 billion. It's a lot of money to be. It is anyway.

But it's all of this is done. through financial transactions diplomacy. So the way we do business in the United States. today, we don't have diplomats. We have. grifters, and that's who's in charge of the country, who's in charge of the police in charge of war, I charge bit. I mean, during your illustrious career, have we ever been in a situation like this. that like what you're seeing with the conflict with Iran? You know,

and so this is the question. when you're in a situation like if people say, well, you got to admit that the Democrats have just got a problem or. you got to admit Trump was right to give you an opinion. You know, I could have written a thousand word essay. or why Japan had reasons to be aggrieved. On December the 1st, 1941, I couldn't Iraq. that same essay on January 1st, 1942,

because nothing justified. what's happening. And that's my complaint with both sides, is it tries to make a 9010 situation look like a 5050 situation. It is no such thing. And if people say, well, James, you have Trump Derangement Syndrome, my answer is yes. If we know that times in times in history where insanity is so prevalent.

that insanity is actually the same reaction. in a novel catch 22, as I pointed out, the guy said, I don't want to fly. because I'm insane. And a psychiatrist said, the fact that you're insane makes you say so. If you're saying right now, go to the psychiatrist because you're really, truly insane. If you're insane, you're fine. You're you're you're in the normal, profoundly normal range.

because just so many thing this gets, something like this can do. this level of craziness. It it doesn't make you crazy again. Well you're crazy. That's where I could exploit it. In this crazy world that we're in, do you see a scenario where we're still in. Iran in November, we're bombing? I remember, honestly, I'm off the top of my head. I don't know, but I you know, as Yogi.

Berra said, predictions are hard to make, especially about the future. and especially in an area. But I don't think there's any appetite to be there now. And I and I don't think there's one. I would love if this country would turn around the understandable. We got our Iranian people show the most talented people on earth. I mean, after people in our country, hip hop, our education degree, and half of them are women. I mean, the regime is autocratic, is not democratic.

It has no respect for human rights. It engages in international crime. But the Iranian people are very talented. And I, you know, would dream one day that. they'd come back into the community of same nations. But. I think what we're doing now is delaying that day, not accelerating that day. I mean, Trump says we're winning. He's apparently watching montage videos as his briefing of us winning.

I'm just curious on your thoughts on that before I let you go. It's a it's a video compilation. That is his briefing as he declares the U.S. is militarily winning this war. Well, I'm a veteran of the Vietnam era, and all I heard was how much real what. we were winning so much our heads. We had lower casualty count for drop more bombs. We did more. But, you know, we didn't do we didn't win the war. in I mean,

there's a lot of strategies. and people had to understand this kind of thing a lot more than I did. What is winning? I mean, if I go watch a baseball game last night, the opening night, San Francisco, I there was a score. Right. We know who boredom war stock like that. different. All right. James Carville is a pleasure to speak with you. And I hope we do this again in the future. That was our show with James Carville.

I was particularly interested in what he had to say. And his ominous warning about the midterms and what Trump might do. as he questions the validity of the election. But Carville making some bold predictions about who will come out on top. and saying that Democrats can take not just the House, but he predicts. also the Senate. It will be something to keep an eye on moving forward. for now, we encourage you to join us in the conversation.

Sign up for our YouTube channel. Follow us on social media. With that, I'm Sarah at you always with The Daily Beast. Thank you so much. So the good news is we have so many beast tier members now. There are too many names to read out and we really appreciate your support. Thanks to our production team Devin, Roger Reno, Ryan Murray, Rachel Passa, Heather Pizarro, Neil Rosen house.