Selects: The Great Nuclear Winter Debate of 1983 | STUFF YOU SHOULD KNOW

Hi everybody. Uh, I picked this. selection. This is Chuck by the way of. Stuff You Should Know, co-host. September 17th, 2015, we did an episode. called The Great Nuclear Winter Debate. of 1983. And I picked this one because I. don't remember even recording it. What. in the world were they debating in 1983. about the great nuclear winter? It was. probably just nuclear winter, and the. great refers to the debate now that I. see how it's worded, but you know what I. mean. I guess I'm going to learn right.

around with you cuz I'm about to listen. to it right now. Welcome to Stuff You Should Know, a. production of iHeart Radio. Hey, and welcome to the podcast. I'm. Josh Clark. There's Charles W. Chuck. Bryant. Jerry's over there somewhere off. in the ether, but I don't think on. ether, just in the ether. Oh man, trying. not to breathe right now. We had a tank.

of ether in here. Be a much different. podcast. Josh and Chuck's ether cats. Do. they put those things in tanks? Oh, I. don't know. Surely. Yeah. Right. No. Is. it like in the bottle still like the. 1800s? I don't know. I don't know. Yeah. I think you just have it in a little. milk bottle. You put it in a rag. You. put it in your face. Then go to happy. town. Yeah. Exactly. Uh if there's any. pharmacists out there that want to set. us straight, let us know how ether comes. these days. That's probably a gas. Yeah, I imagine it's not like Hunter Thompson.

I think we talked about it before in. anesthesia. Probably. It's like ether. gas. What a weird start. Yeah, that has. nothing to do with what we're about to. talk about. Yeah. I was trying to relate. it, but there really is nothing. One of. my favorite favorite topics of all time, nuclear holocaust from the Cold War. Yeah. Well, we did we did one on the. Cold War, didn't we? Oh, we've done. several. Uh yeah, we've we've batted. around this thing, but we've never done. a full nuclear holocaust podcast, have.

we? No. And nuclear holocaust is that's. not quite right. That's not the right. way to put it because what we're talking. about is actually the after effects from. a nuclear holocaust. Isn't that the Holocaust? M I mean if. you want to be a purist, the nuclear. holocaust is the immediate destruction. as a result of exploding nuclear bombs. over like population centers and stuff. Oh, I didn't know that. I thought it was. the whole kitten kaboodleoodle. I should.

say if you're a purist and you want to. say it from my opinion, that's what a. nuclear holocaust is. Okay, I think we. know what's going on here. Got it. Um. yeah, Robert Lamb wrote this uh stuff to. blow your mind. Yeah, I have to say I I. said, "Man, way to go on that one." That. was a good one. You told him that. I. did. I actually uttered those words. What did he say? Thanks, man. That's. nice. Uh, but the the thing that gets me. about nuclear winner, which we will talk. about in depth, um, what fascinates me.

about it just as much as the nuclear. winner itself, Chuck. Yeah. Is the the. controversy, the debate that that arose. from it throughout the 80s. There was a huge debate. Debate on the. severity. Debate. Yeah. Debate on. whether it was something to worry about. or not. Yeah. Well, I looked up because. I was like, is does anyone think that. this is a myth? An outright myth. And. from what I saw in my research is that. no, this is fact. It's just a dispute.

What's a dispute is the scenario and the. severity of what would happen. But no. one says like no, there would be no. nuclear winter. there would be no. problems after a nuclear bomb drop. So. there used to be like back in in the. early 80s when this was a huge new. thing. Yeah. Um there was a group of. scientists who uh were hawkish uh very. much in favor of the US building up its. nuclear arsenal as much as possible and.

started a basically a PR letterw writing. campaign to discredit the science behind. this and say like these guys don't know. what they're talking about. So what they. think that the bomb would drop and then. like the next day the birds would be. out. They they they said initially, yeah, that was kind of their position. was just to poke holes in this and that. it wasn't wasn't a it wasn't legitimate. science, right? Yeah, it doesn't sound. like that. And then um they ultimately. the whole point was that this came from.

an argument over whether the US should. engage in the SDI, the strategic defense. initiative or Star Wars, right? Which is. the lasers that shoot nukes from space, right? Yeah. They they shoot down nukes. from space. We did a show on that, didn't we? No, we did. That was another. one. Um, but that's what the whole thing. was. It's the context of it. It was an. argument over what over either nuclear. disarmament, which Carl Sean and his. friends were in favor of, hippies, or um. nuclear proliferation and the Star Wars.

um program, Warongers, right? The. Hippies versus the Warmongers. The weird. thing is is this debate, Chuck, took. place in the pages of like academic. journals and it ended up being a fight. between science and science deniers. Yeah, it sounds like these scientists. that you mentioned might have been uh. had their coffers full from the US. government. So potentially or private. industry or something like that. Yeah. Um, and the thing is is they use this.

old chestnut where um, so if you're a. scientist, there's no certainty in. anything you say. It can always be. disproven. Remember, we talked about. this in the scientific method episode. Yeah. All your stuff can be disproven. ultimately, which is why it's just a. theory. Yeah. So, no science is going to. be like, "This is 100% certain, right?". Well, these other scientists who are. poking holes in it would point out these. guys aren't even certain, which means. that there's there's disagreement over.

whether we'll have a nuclear winner or. not. So, they were being very. disingenuous in poking holes in it by. saying these scientists aren't even. certain in their findings. Well, no. scientist is certain in their findings. So, dangerous, but to the public, you think, oh, well, these scientists. can't say that they're certain, so that. they must not know what they're talking. about for sure. That's dangerous. That's. why we're at 3 minutes to midnight on. the doomsday clock. That's exactly. right. Because some people might say, "Well, you're not certain, so let's just.

not act fast enough." Yeah, man. And I. should say also, Chuck, we should. prepare for a lot of listener mail. because this is a conservative flash. point. Nuclear winner is long-standing. one. Oh, yeah. Great. It sounds good. Let's talk about. this. Uh, all right. Okay. Well, Robert. starts where most people should start. when talking about nuclear winter, and. that's in the atmosphere. Uh, it's a. very finely tuned system we have. I I.

want to say it's like homeostasis, but. um it's not people. So, I guess it's. like an ecostasis where the sun. uh just enough sun gets through to make. things make the earth uh habitable and. uh proliferate with plants and water and. humans and animals and all kinds of. great stuff, right? uh too much sun even. by a little bit could be catastrophic. and too little sun even by a little bit. could be catastrophic. Right. So we've.

thanks to humans we've struck a great. balance here with the sun a great deal. was made and you can shine to sunshine. too much sun. Yeah. And it's working out. awesome. Uh the idea of nuclear winter. is that there would be enough ash from. or and smoke. It's really not the. fallout from the nuclear bombs. themselves. From what I understand, it's. more the smoke from the resulting fires, right, that would cause the blacking out. of the sky and the sun not getting. through. It's actually all of it. Yeah.

But everything I read across the board. said it's almost 100% the smoke that. that goes on. Yes, it's true. I mean, you you you shouldn't negate the idea. that like nuclear radiation poisoning is. going to kill a lot of people. Oh, yeah. as a result. But the blacking out of the. skies is due to the smoke from fire. Exactly. From the bomb that happened, right? So this whole thing, the context. of it again comes from the the 70s,

right, Chuck? Uh yeah. In ' 80s. Yeah. And and back in I think the 1975, a a group issued a statement that said, you know, there probably wouldn't be. that big of a fallout from nuclear. explosions. A few years after that, another group I think that the first. group was the National Academy of. Sciences. Another group said, "You know. what? We don't think that's exactly. true. We think that there probably is. some sort of um there will be something,

but our models are too um primitive.". Yeah. To say for certain what the. fallout would be. Sure. Few years after. that, Carl Sean and his crew got. together and said, um, no, there's going. to be serious consequences. And here's. what they are. Billions of lives lost. Billions and billions. Right? And one of. the things they base this on, this idea. on that if you spew a bunch of smoke or. particulate matter into the um.

atmosphere that it'll have a negative um. influence on the the global climate. Oh. yeah. Is um past history from volcanic. eruptions. Yes. uh most not well there. are a few over the years but uh one of. the notable ones in 1883. uh at the time then the dust uh Dutch. East Indies now Indonesia uh Crakatoa uh. that volcano was massive to the tune of. 36,000.

deaths just from the volcano and this is. in Crakatoa in 1883 yeah there's only. like 10 people there somehow it's not. like it was super populated right and. twothirds of Crakatoa uh collapsed. Uh. the smoke uh rose up and warmed the. global temperature global by 2.2 degrees. Fahrenheit. Uh I think it no it lowered. it. Yeah, it lowered. Sorry. Yeah. Uh it. took 5 years uh for temperatures to. return to normal and it affected this.

was in Indonesia and it actually they. think increased the rainfall in Los. Angeles by more than double that next. year. Wow. That's in LA in Southern. California. So that was the Crackkatoa. blast from 1883, right? Yeah. And that. it literally changed the color of the. sky for like years afterward. The sky. was red. Um such that they think uh you. know the scream the uh painting the. screen. Oh yeah. Munch. Yeah. The red. sky. They think that's that was like the.

way the sky looked was because of this. volcano. That is so neat. Yeah. Isn't. that crazy? That guy was like that. volcano is crazy. That's what the man is. saying. And that's just one of them. Uh. what was the other one in uh Mount. Tambbora? Yeah, Indonesia once again. Yeah, Indonesia's got bad luck with the. volcanoes back in the 19th century. Man, and this was actually earlier in 1815. Yeah, I remember learning about this. when I was a kid because Ohio got it. really bad. A volcano went off in. Indonesia in 1815. And the following. year, much of the United States did not.

have a summer. It was actually called. the year without a summer. And Ohio was. affected. Yes. Oh, wow. Yeah. Oh, yeah. There was like snow on the ground in the. middle of July. Did you learn that in. state history class? Yes, I did. I. remember that. Yeah. Uh yeah, Georgia. State history. That that was like a full. course at our school. Yeah. Half of it. was just sitting around with the teacher. like staring off into the distance, right? I remember ours was just like a. lot of talk about Crawford Long and the. Civil War.

We didn't talk about Crawford Long and. ours. No, because he wasn't from. Georgia. We talked about Anthony Wayne. Yeah. The Battle of Fallen Timbers. Yeah. Well, that summer without a winter, year. without a summer, I mean. Uhhuh. And. then there's some like canals and locks. that donkeys used to pull barges on. Yeah. I just remember Crawford long and. a lot of racism. Yeah. Basically. Yeah. Uh Georgia history. That's right. So. that was Mount Tambbora, the year. without summer. Um there have been other.

events like when um the oil fields. burned during the uh during the war in. the early 90s. Yeah. Apparently Carl. Sean predicted a basically a nuclear. winner from that. Yeah. Pan out. Yeah. That's where they take some flak was um. it was not nearly as bad the fallout. from that smoke as Sean predicted. No. But. what can you do? But predict you're. going to be wrong. Yeah. Occasely you're.

going to be wrong. It doesn't mean you. should be like, "Oh, well that smoke. didn't do much, so let's start building. nuclear bombs again." Yeah. Well, that's. the whole thing, Chuck. I am so glad you. said that because that's the whole mad. thing to this argument. It's like what. what are you arguing in favor for? If. you're arguing against the idea of. nuclear winter, what precisely are you. arguing for? Yeah. Like it won't be that. bad? We'll talk a little bit more about. it like later on in the show, what some.

people have argued about. But it seems. like what you say ultimately you're. arguing in favor of more nuclear. weapons. That seems wrongheaded by. definition to me. Well, not even just. that, but using them won't be as bad as. you say, right? Like not just have them, but well, the fallout wouldn't be as bad. as they all predict. So, yeah, use them. You almost get the impression like. they're just like, well, let's just find. out. Let's just shoot a couple off and. find out what happens. Come on, you'll. see them, right? And then as they die. from a smoke inhalation, they say, "I.

was wrong. What have I done?". Oh, goodness. Let's take a break. All. right, let's do and we'll come back and. we'll talk uh a little bit more about. the nuclear winner. [Music]. Learning stuff with Joshua. stuff you should know.

I said nuclear ingest, but I know heard. before the break. That was good stuff. All right. I just want to point that out. because some people might think it was. serious. No. And now that you said it. was ingest, some people are like, "What. a jerk." Maybe that man was my hero. I I. posted something on Facebook the other. day that said, "You're sciencing wrong.". as a joke. And people called me out. They're like, "You can't use science as. a verb." Like, man, I thought in the. last century you could use like.

everything as a verb. Yeah, that's true. Yeah. People have gotten extremely. serious. Extremely self-s serious. I'm a. not self-s serious person, so I don't. fit in in today's world. I You're a. relic. You're an old dinosaur. Just a. stupid laughing dinosaur. Speaking of dinosaurs. Yeah. What? Well, I guess we should talk about the KT. boundary extinction event, which was uh some people, some in. science have theorized that that's what. happened to the dinosaurs was there was.

an impact winter. Not quite the same as. a nuclear winter, but the same effect as. a nuclear winter due to the impact of uh. an asteroid. That's right. And that. would have happened at the border of the. Cretaceous and tertiary periods again. when the dinosaurs all died off. Still. inexplicably there there's no there's no. uh definitive answer. Again though, we're talking science. No one found a. journal, right?

Buried in your diary today. Something is. streaking through the sky and it's. making everyone nervous. Uh it's very. hot now, but I noticed the dinosaurs are. dying, so that's good. Oh, this is a. dinosaur writing in my opinion. Oh. Oh, so that's bad, right? Right. Uh, okay. So, let's talk nuclear winner, right? You you you kind of said it earlier, but. the whole idea behind nuclear winner is. that if you shoot off nuclear bombs,

especially a bunch of them. Yeah. And. you have to understand at the time that. um these scientists were really starting. to debate this there were like 70,000. nuclear warheads like many many times. more nuclear warheads in existence in. like the early 80s than there were. today. Yeah. And when they started. debating them, they really took up this. cause because. the Reagan administration was saying, "We need this Star Wars program because.

we can we can prevent almost with, you. know, 90%. certainty. a a Soviet nuclear attack, right, with. laser guns." Exactly. And so these. scientists who were concerned. scientists, basically anti-nuke. scientists, said, "Wait a minute. There's something that you guys aren't. thinking through here. If you do that, the Soviets are going to say, "Well, wait a minute. If this thing is 90%. effective, then we need to build up our. nuclear arsenal so that when we shoot.

everything we got at them, yeah, still. that 10% will totally annihilate the. United States." that the presence of the. Star Wars program was going to to to put. the nuclear arms race into even higher. gear than it already was. Yeah. So, they. very much took it upon themselves to to. tackle this with science, but also. publicize it and sell it to the public. And it's that that stuck in the crawl of. a lot of other scientists, but. particularly scientists who were in.

favor of nuclear proliferation as a. matter of of national defense. That's. right. The point of it is when they. tackled this, they said, um, here's the. big problem with it. If you shoot off a. bunch of nuclear bombs, a lot a lot a. lot of nuclear bombs, which could. totally go off as far as a nuclear war. is concerned. Yeah. um it's going to. cause a lot of smoke to enter the. atmosphere and that is where this domino. effect is going to create this global. catastrophe and the whole outcome of it.

is based on the number of nukes that you. shoot off which is basically what Carl. Sean and his buddy Richard Turo divided. the different types of nuclear winter. into. That's right. Mr. Sean and Mr. Turo are they doctors? Let's just call. everyone a doctor. Uh well yeah he was. Carl Sean was a doctor of astro. chemistry I believe and Richard Turko. was um he was a veterinarian. I can't. remember what he was. Uh they wrote a. book called A Path where No Man Thought.

A Path Where No Man Thought. Right. And. uh it seemed like there would be one. more word there. Um and they have 1 2 3. 4 5 six scenarios for uh what a nuclear. winter might look like ranging from. minimal to extreme. Uh and minimal best. case scenario which is just a little bit. of a nuclear attack. Not many bombs.

going off. Yeah. Maybe like let's say. Hiroshima or Nagasaki. which we'll talk about those were like. 20 21 kilotons. Yeah. Uh that means that. there would be minimal cloud cover. Uh. not much environmental impact globally. and um the targeted areas would be wiped. out of course but the world itself uh. would not have big consequences right. atmospherically. So if you are talking a. nuclear war, especially a cold war.

nuclear war, that was a fairly unlikely. scenario. By the time this the the early. 1980s rolled around and people started. talking about the the concept of a. nuclear winner, those like Hiroshima and. Nagasaki level nuclear bombs Yeah. were. like attached to the average fighter. jet. Yeah. They were considered like. just tactical like you just could shoot. them off on a battlefield if you needed. to. Yeah. So the idea that it would just. amount to that is unlikely. Yeah, it. was. But they were being nice. That's.

the best case scenario. They're trying. to cover all avenues here. Yes. Uh. number two is marginal. Uh and that's a. few detonations. Uh again in the northern hemisphere and. they said it would lower the temperature. by a few degrees and there would be some. crops and some agriculture that suffered. and probably some famine. Yeah. But it. would not uh Oh, black rain of course. Yeah. Who wants that? Did happen in uh. Hiroshima. Yes. Uh they drank it. You.

and died from drinking it to go. Yes. Cuz it was radioactive rain. Yeah. But. they drank it because they were thirsty. Because they had no water. Yes. It's. devastating. You and everyone should. have to go to the city of Hiroshima. Like it is amazing what they've done to. to preserve what happened there. Oh, I'm. sure as like a teaching lesson for. everyone. Yeah, it's really moving. We. should have one of those here. We. should. Instead, people are like, "Yeah,

Japan forced the US to drop the bomb. It's fact, right?" Which is not correct, right? Uh so Black Rain would happen in. that marginal scenario. Man, this is a. really political episode, isn't it? I. think anytime you tackle nuclear war, it's going to be divisive. Yeah, because. some people think it's awesome. Nuke the whales. Got to nuke something. Uh things below the equator in that. scenario in the southern hemisphere. would be just fine. So, here's something. that I found really interesting and.

wrong in this um analysis of it. Sean, I. guess he was strictly talking about. atmospheric effects. Yeah. But he. mentions like famine and stuff like. that. The the thing is that would have a. global effect for sure. Yeah. The rest. of the world. depends in large part on North American. wheat and corn. Yeah. So if there's a. nuclear fallout in North America that. affects our crop yields dramatically and. causes famine in the US, it's going to. cause famine elsewhere too. Oh yeah.

Yeah. I think what he's saying is as far. as climatologically speaking, Yeah. What. he and Turko are saying is as long as. you're not shooting off nuclear bombs in. the southern hemisphere, it's gonna. climatologically speaking be unaffected, right? Or largely unaffected because the. wind goes down to the equator and then. back up. Like the equator separates the. hemispheres as far as the atmosphere is. concerned. Yeah, totally. There would. still be global troubles. Yes. Uh but in. reading all these scenarios, it made me.

really want to move to Australia. Well, that's another thing, too. How many. people would be like, uh, I need to get. out of the United States, so I'm moving. down to Mexico or I'm moving down to. Brazil or I'm moving down to Australia. And then the infrastructure in those. countries are just super stressed. because the northern hemisphere that. survived is suddenly moving down to the. southern hemisphere. Yeah, it's another. widespread effect. Uh, Mexico would help. you too much though. Well, what weren't. they like super helpful in uh. Independence Day? Was it Independence. Day or the morning or no, the the day.

after tomorrow? Everybody starts having. to move south because North America's. just frozen ice sheet. Yeah, but I just. mean as far as uh you'd have to go. pretty far south, further south than. Mexico if you want to escape the. atmospheric fallout. Oh, you're right. So, Ecuador. Yeah. Like what is it like. half of Africa and South America or in. the Southern Hemisphere? Yeah, probably. not half. Yeah. So, the Northern. Hemisphere would show up at the Southern. Hemisphere's doorstep be like Christmas.

in July, we'll get used to it. That's. right. Your drain goes the other way. when you uh release the water from the. tub. Yeah. Neato. And I know Christmas. doesn't fall in July. It was a. metaphorical statement, everyone. Yeah, I get you. Nominal nuclear winner is. number three. Uh that is what they. consider the low-end fullcale nuclear. war, right? But still full scale. 6,000. to 12,000 nuclear weapons. That's all. just six to 12,000 nuclear bombs, right?

And we're talking um a megat ton or more. bombs. And a megat ton was um I think 50. Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs combined. Wow. So 12,000 time 50 of those for this. kind of nominal nuclear war. Yeah, that's a lot of zeros. Yeah. Uh they. predicted noon sunlight would be about a. third of what it was. a global. temperature drop of 18 degrees. That's.

bad news, my friend. Um, that would. destroy a lot of the ozone layer. Uh, and again, the southern hemisphere. wouldn't experience major climactic. change. Just cut to the southern hemisphere. They're all at the beach. There's like. tropical music playing, but they have no. wheat. Who needs wheat when you got rum drinks? That's a t-shirt. Josh Clark said that one. Yeah. Uh. number four, substantial uh that is. full-scale nuclear war. Um freezing.

temperatures, big time fallout, the. whole day would be like it's overcast. Yeah. Um billions of humans dead. Billions billions and billions species. going extinct. Um and finally, possible. damage to the southern hemisphere. Finally. Possibly. Right. Uh and then the last two we can just. bunch together. I think severe and. extreme. Um less than 1% of the sunlight.

uh getting through. for months and months on end. Global. temperature dropping, no photosynthesis. happening, right? Every crop dying. All life perishing. Let's just go ahead. and wrap it up right there. Yeah. As. Robert puts it, um, most of the planet's. life would perish within the chilly. confines of this black atmospheric tomb. Yeah, he's got a little Lovecraft in. him, doesn't he? He does. This. unnameable tomb. Yeah. Um, Chuckers,

let's take another break and then we. will come back and talk about um the. fallout from nuclear winter theory. [Music]. learning stuff with Joshua. Charles. [Music]. So, um, like we said, Carl Sean and his.

friends got together and basically took. it upon themselves to. educate the public about the potential. catastrophe that could happen as a. result of nuclear war. Everybody before. was like, "Yeah, that would really suck. to be in a city that a nuclear bomb went. off on." Yeah, but maybe it wouldn't be. my city. I live in Skenctity, New York. No one's gonna bomb Skenkity, so I'm.

probably gonna be okay. These guys said, "Hey, Western civilization, not just in. the US, but also the USSR. That's not necessarily the case. You too. will be affected. There's going to be. big problems after this, after a nuclear. war. So much so that let's make sure. that our leaders never do this, right? Wake up, basically is what they were. doing." And so um Sean and his friends. created a paper and it's now called the. Tataps paper after all of their names, right? Turkot Tune, Acriman, Pollock,

and Sean. Okay. And they um wrote this. paper and had it published in science, the preeminent scientific journal in the. United States. Yeah. It was a big deal. Yeah. The they also held a very well. publicized conference. Mhm. And Carl. Sean apparently without the the group's. knowledge or blessing went off and also. wrote a piece in Parade magazine. Oh. wow. Yeah. To make sure that every Dick. and Jane in the US knew about this. It.

was like a three-page article about the. the nuclear winner, which is a new term. at the time, complete with illustrations. where like the the Earth was like this. dead lifeless what's called like a a. gray chalk billiard ball basically. Yeah. um just really scary stuff. Sure. And. then he also simultaneously wrote. another longer piece that was in foreign. affairs um that's a little more wonky. So Sean went off after writing this this. scientific paper and publicized it to.

policy makers and to the American. public. Yeah, this is the early 1980s. and Yeah, this is 1983. And you this was. before all the science was in. This is. from the first paper before the first. papers conference was even held, right? Yeah. And a lot of people, including. people who were on his side about this. issue, were really mad at him because it. opened up the this group and the whole. idea of nuclear winner to allegations. that they were fear-mongering. Yeah. And. that they were basically trying to sell.

the public on science, which is, you. know, that's not what science does, right? Yes. Pure science is about. research and coming up with facts. And. whether they're popular or unpopular, it. doesn't matter. Science is science and. fact is fact, right? Yeah. A good theory. is a good theory. But these guys again were concerned that. something really really bad could happen. and they went to the trouble of taking. it upon themselves to advertise it to. the public. But again, Sean going off. and doing this, it really opened them up.

for a lot of allegations and debate that. took place afterward. Yeah. But some say. that the uh their work in the TTAPS. report actually did help cool things. down uh in the Cold War a little bit. Yeah. And I mean it wasn't just these. American scientists, they worked with. Soviet scientists as well. And. apparently um sometimes it went good, sometimes it didn't go so well. But. there both sides were working on this. issue. And the fact that it got so much. publicity actually created a firestorm. of back and forth in the scientific.

community and this issue ended up. getting really wellstudied. Yeah, it. did. And uh 7 years later they revised. the report in 1990 and uh it had new. more modernized data and it um wasn't. quite as dire which uh some critics were. like all right that's this is a little. more reasonable. Yes. They revised it to. call it the nuclear autumn. Yeah. And everyone loves autumn. Yeah. Autumn's great. Autumn all the time. That'd be wonderful. Oh man, that would.

be wonderful. That'd be Chuck's world. uh and they there are disagreements over. that still and they basically there's um. a few four variables that are always the. factors that are the unknowns and it's. really they're all to me kind of one. four versions of the same variable which. is we don't know how much smoke there. would be. Yes, we just don't know. Uh. and number one is how much material is. there to burn. So the idea is you drop a.

bomb on a city, a nuclear bomb and everything catches on. fire and uh that creates tremendous. amounts of smoke. Uh but since these are. all theoretical and you don't know what. would happen if you drop something the. size on like let's say a major city like. New York, they're like what would be. there to burn? Like we just don't know. Well, that's that's Yeah. So, if you. dropped it on a city, is it an old city. that's that isn't super modern and. therefore isn't built out of like lots. of plastic that can get into the.

atmosphere and really mess things up? Yeah. Like the really bad stuff. Yeah. If it's an old city, maybe the burning. wouldn't be so bad even after a nuclear. holocaust. Um or maybe you're not. shooting nuclear bombs to cities, but to. other nuclear installations that are out. in the middle of like nowhere in. Nebraska, right? Um because we have I. mean we've there's been like 2,000. nuclear bombs detonated but they only. two on a cities. Right. Exactly. Everything else been out over the ocean. or out in the middle of nowhere and.

there's been no fire. Right. Um the. assumption is is that though if you shot. a nuclear bomb at a at a modern city, a. lot of really toxic smoke would be. produced. Oh yeah. That's probably the. worst case scenario in both the. immediate nuclear holocaust. Yeah. And. the uh the fallout, the nuclear winter. as a result because of all the smoke. that would be created. I mean, look at. the fallout from 9/11 and that was two. buildings, right? You know. Yeah. Uh the. second variable is how much would remain.

in the atmosphere and then how much goes. back to the earth. Yeah. No one really knows that at all. How much sunlight would be deflected? Again, just theorizing. And you can go. back and plug in these numbers. Yeah. The problem is if you're a detractor of. nuclear winter theory, you would say. that's a guess, right? Where'd you get. that number? Yeah. You know, and you. could take every number and come up with. a different model for each one. They. usually don't do that. But even still, it's like which one's going to be the.

one? And again, it goes back to how much. smoke would there be to begin with. Yeah. Uh and then finally, when did it. happen? Um if it was actually in winter. perhaps it's not so bad. Yeah. Nuclear. winter in winter ironically is the best. case scenario. The best case scenario of. the bad scenarios. Right. So they they. did initially back off of their. findings. They said that it was there. could initially be like a 35 to 40. degree drop in global temperatures um.

Celsius. Yeah. So, we're talking like 70. degrees 72 degrees Fahrenheit drop in in. temperatures. So, and that's for full-on. nuclear war. Yeah. Yes. Um later on as. they revised their findings and more. again more more and more scientists got. involved and studied this issue, they. came upon what seemed to be a consensus. that you could probably count on. something like a 15° C drop in um global. temperatures which would be substantial.

and could still have widespread effects. Right. Yeah. So this from this debate. nuclear winter kind of got settled on. There was a scientific consensus that. came about and there was also consensus. that not only would um there be huge. problems inland, there would be ocean. oceanic problems as well. Yeah. Because. one of the things one of the great. casualties of detonating nuclear bombs. is the ozone layer. Yeah. Um the the. fireball from the blast burns up.

nitrogen converting it to nitrogen. oxide. Nitrogen oxide just punches holes. basically chemically burns the ozone. layer. Yeah. So then when all that smoke. that's acting as like an umbrella that's. blocking out the sunlight falls back to. Earth, all that particulate matter falls. back to Earth and is radioactive, by the. way. Yeah. Now the sunlight that does. come through is way hotter and has way. more UV light. Yeah. Than it had before. the nuclear bombs went off. The problem.

because we had our little delicate. balance that's now disrupted. Exactly. The problem with that for the oceans is. that that UV light would likely be too. intense for phytolanton at the um ocean. surface. Yeah. Well, that is the. keystone species for the ocean aquatic. environments. The ecosystems all start. with phytolanton and zup plankton feed. on phytolanton. Little fish feed on zup. plankton. Larger fish feed on little. fish and so on and so on until if so if. you get rid of the the phytolankton,

you're in big trouble. Big trouble. So. there would be huge ramifications and. science came to a consensus on this. But. again, it was attacked very early on by. nuclear proliferation hawks. as basically being against the interests. of United States national security. Right? And then later on it continued to. be attacked. It became a a a customary. traditional flash point among. conservatives as a great example of the. lengths that hippie uh environmental.

scientists will go to to to dupe the. American public into being scared about. nuclear bombs and and just nuclear stuff. in general. Like Michael Cretton. famously attacked it in a 2003 speech. and he his whole thing he he was very. famously a climate denier. He was a. climate skeptic until his death as far. as I know. Uhhuh. Um was he dead? Yeah. Yeah. And and he wrote some great books,

but he was also like contrarian by. nature is what he said as well. But I. get the impression that he tended to. land on the more conservative. anti-environmental side. Oh yeah. And on. this case, he also attacked the nuclear. winner as well. And what he accused. these guys of doing is is creating. science by consensus, right? That to me is that's just like a one-two. sucker punch. So the initial scientists. that that challenged um nuclear winner.

said, "You guys can't even agree. There's no consensus. like you can't be. certain in what you're saying. So. therefore, we don't need to take you. seriously. So they said, "Okay, you know. what? We're gonna get all these. scientists around the world together to. study this issue and we're going to come. to a consensus." And when they did, years later, guys like Michael Kiteon. said, "You guys are practicing science. by consensus and politicizing science. It's not real science." So it was like. they were very much damned if they did. and damned if they didn't. And.

ultimately, you just have to kind of. decide, is is it worth the risk? Maybe. we can't say for certain. Yeah. And at. the time you couldn't say for certain. What's cool is that some of these same. climate scientists are still at work and. they have come up with fairly recent. models using very sophisticated. climate models compared to the stuff. they were using back in the 80s and even. the 90s. Yeah. The stuff they're using. now says actually we think nuclear. winter might be worse than was initially.

predicted. Yeah. And even if it's not a. full-scale nuclear war, I think the. worry there's not as much worry these. days for something like that. Uh what. the worry is now is that uh some rogue. nation uh gets a hold of one or maybe. even not a rogue nation just uh India. and Pakistan drop a couple of nuclear. bombs. Well, that's the model and like. that is entirely possible. I think a one. megaton detonation is what they they did. this model on and it was it had a. substantial effect. Yeah. They said 10.

years of smoke clouds uh in a three-year. temperature drop of about 2.25 degrees. Fahrenheit, which doesn't sound like. much, but if you go back and you read. the that scientist's study, his. executive summary of the study, he he. points out that that kind of drop. ultimately equals a shortened growing. season by 10 to 20 days. Yeah. And that. last 10 to 20 days makes or breaks a. crop. Like that means you can either. harvest it or it dies before it matures. and can be harvested. And so even just a.

couple of degrees can lead to to. widespread crop failure. Yeah. But this. is just if India and Pakistan shoot 50. bombs at one another in a regional war. Yeah. It could have that effect around. the world. Uh so we mentioned Hiroshima. and Nagasaki. Um those are the only. places we can look. But like we pointed. out, the bombs were so different back. then. It's not the best comparison. But. as far as looking at what kind of fires. could happen, you can't tell a whole. lot. Um, in Hiroshima, there were more.

fires than in Nagasaki just because of. the way the geography is in the two. cities. But um, in neither case did they. see a ton of uh, secondary fires like it. wasn't blacking out the sky. There was. black rain, but um apparently, you know, like a week later, uh most of that stuff. had cleared up. But again, that is. you can't even really compare the two. No, it's a a single 21 kiloton bomb.

Yeah, exactly. We're talking a a 50 of. those going off in the same area. Uh but. that report that you mentioned on just. like of India and Pakistan um. how much was it 10 megat tons 50 50 or. no it was one megat ton so 50 of the. Hiroshima and um Nagasaki bombs well it. was enough to cause the uh atomic. scientists science and security board to. move the doomsday clock two minutes.

closer to midnight. Yeah. Uh, and the. doomsday clock is, uh, some people say it's good science, some. people say they're fear-mongering. Uh, but what it is is it is a it's a design. that basically says here's how close we. are to destroying ourselves as a. civilization. And um there are a lot of factors that. go into it like biotechnology or cyber. technology, but the main two are. obviously nuclear weapons and climate.

change, right? Are the two main things. that factor into where the doomsday. clock sits. And uh. I think in the 1950s, they've only. changed it uh how many times? 18 times. since it was created in 1947. Have they changed the hands on the. clock? Uh, in the 1950s it was at two. minutes till midnight. In the early. 1950s, um, the best I think it's been in the. early 90s was 17 minutes till midnight.

Oh, nice. Yeah. Doesn't that feel good? Yeah. That's a lot of time. Where are we. at right now? Right now, we are the. closest we've been since 1983. Uh and on January 22nd of this year, it. was changed to um three minutes till. midnight is where they sit. And uh they. they have a big had a big press release. I'll just read the opening and closing. paragraphs. Uh the opening paragraph. In. 2015, uh unchecked climate change, global nuclear weapon modernizations,

and outsized nuclear weapons arsenals. pose extraordinary and undeniable. threats to the continued existence of. humanity. and world leaders have failed. to act with the speed or on the scale. required to protect citizens from. potential catastrophe. These failures of. political leadership endanger every. person on Earth. And then the final. paragraph and there's lots of fun stuff. in between. Yeah, just like fart jokes. and stuff. And then they close with in. 2015 with the clock hand moved forward. to 3 minutes to midnight the board feels. compelled to add with a sense of great.

urgency. The probability of global. catastrophe is very high and the actions. needed to reduce the risks of disaster. must be taken very soon. They don't mess around. No. Uh and even. though that we've um. we had been doing a good job of reducing. the amount of warheads between the. United States and Russia, but things. have slowed to a snail's pace. Now, from. 2009 to 2013, uh Obama cut only 309. warheads from the stockpile, and they're.

basically saying, "We're not doing this. as fast as we need to." Yeah. Like, we. need to act now. Yeah. Well, there's. other people who are saying, "We need to. rebuild our nuclear arsenal because it's. aging and rotting and we'll be useless. by 2020 to 2030." How are we going to. drop nuclear bombs on people in the. future? Right. There's It's weird. like. some people are trying to reignite the. Cold War. Well, trust me on both sides. I don't agree with it, but I I know that.

most of those people aren't saying, "Hey, so we can bomb people." It's so we. can keep each other in check. Yes. Which. was the Cold War. We could also get rid. of nuclear bombs entirely. We could do. that. Um, and you know, Sean's whole. thing, I should say, and it's funny that. he's kind of like the villain of this. whole thing of the whole nuclear winner. debate because he's such a revered. figure. sure such a great guy, but he. really I purposefully made some serious. missteps as far as publicizing the. results went before they were fully in.

But his whole thing was and if you read. his foreign policy thing uh his article, it's really really good. Um it's not too. obtuse, so like it's kind of fun to. read, but it's called nuclear war and. climactic catastrophe colon some policy. implications. And he says like we don't. know, you know, what the what the right. answer is. We don't know if it's. entirely possible that nuclear winter. maybe our ideas are overblown or. whatever. But he says, I'm not willing.

to take the chance, right? Why should we. take the chance? That's my thing. It's. like, why risk it? Right? So his. solution is, how about this, US and. USSR? How about you deescalate the arms. race, deproliferate until you get down. to a threshold that science has said, okay, nuclear winner probably couldn't. happen beyond this payload, right? Yeah. So, even if all the nuclear bombs in the.

world at this lower number were set off, we still wouldn't go into nuclear. winter, right? But you guys can take out. all of your major city centers and still. fight your nuclear war, but the rest of. the world won't won't be destroyed by. it. Yeah, that was his solution. And no. one took him up on it. I've never. understood I don't know, man. We'll. we'll do one on climate change at some. point too, but I've never understood why. people. and I get the economics play a factor, but why risking the future of mankind.

for your ancestors to follow is worth. it. A lot of it is fear. like a lot of. these people who have over the last. decades, you know, pushed for that kind. of thing, like fear that, you know, the. US will be caught with his pants down. like genuinely feared the Soviet Union. and like their heart was in it like. that. But I mean, if it's fascinating to. me this whole like basically secret. publicity war that's been going that. went on throughout the 20th and it's.

well into the 21st centuries. Yeah. There's a book again, I think I. mentioned it, called Merchants of Doubt. Oh yeah, everybody should read. So good. And you know what? Save your emails to. me because you can still think what you. want to think. Yeah. I just I just. personally don't get it. I'm not going. to throw stones at you and say you're. wrong. I probably should, but I won't. because it's not nice to throw stones. It isn't, Chuck. Are you good? I'm. great. Uh, if you want to know more. about Nuclear Winter, you can read this.

fine article written by Robert Lamb by. typing Nuclear Winter in the search bar. at howstuffworks.com. Since I said search bar, it's time for. listener mail. Oh no, my friend. It's. time for administrative. details. [Music]. All right. This is the time that we all. know and love. Uh when Josh and I read. out uh and say thanks, we give thanks.

We should call this Thanksgiving and not. administrative details. Oh, okay. Ready? No. No. It's okay. Uh cuz administrative. details is such a weird name. This is. long. It's meant to be. Uh so this is. when we thank people for the for the. very kind gifts that they have sent us. over the months. And dude, I think this. goes back all the way to January for me. Oh man, I've got one for Christmas. cookies to Mona Colentine and Grandma. Colentine. I think we always say her. name wrong, by the way. No, I think she. corrected us and said it was like.

Valentine. Oh, right. So I think I'm. saying it right. Man, Mona's going to be. so mad at me. Colentina. Uh, all right. Is the administrative. detail music playing? Sounds like it. Great. Can't you hear that? I'll get it. started with uh Richard sent us a guide. to the round things of the solar system. Very fun. Very nice. I remember that. Yes. Uh Blair sent us a plug-in key. holder. You come home, plug your. keychain in, and you never forget it. It's pretty awesome, actually. You can. get them on Amazon. Electric socket.

unplug chain holder. Search for that. It. will bring it up. That's right. Uh, I. got a postcard, very nice postcard from. Jean-Pierre Bonasco and Stephanie Crick. from Port Lroy, Antarctica. Nice. And. it's worth saying again, thank you to. Mona Colentine and Grandma Colentine for. our Christmas cookies. We look forward. to them again this year. Yes, we. certainly do. Uh oh, we've gotten. Nougat, homemade nougat from Kristen. Ferguson again. It's so delicious. I am. hooked on that stuff. It's great. It is.

uh she uh you can find her at Solace. Sweets. Man, it is so good. Yeah, Kristine's been sending us this homemade. nougat for years, and I was always like, "Homemade nougat? I don't know about. that." And then I put it in my mouth. It's amazing stuff. It's really good. I. know. Uh and then, uh we also got some. sweets from Dude Sweet Chocolate out of. Texas. I think they might be out of. Dallas. They made a like they sent us. really great chocolates, but they also. make these incredible marshmallows, too. They made a sweet potato marshmallow. Wow. And dudes at Dude Sweet Chocolate,

thank you for those. They were amazing. Yumi was crazy for those marshmallows. like I am for the nougat. That was quite. the bounty. I remember that. Yeah. Uh, as always, uh, every Christmas, our. buddy Eron Cooper in Kansas sends us. great printouts of these great. photoshops that he does of us that he. puts online. And yeah, you can see them. on Internet Roundup. Yeah, we even got. uh t-shirts this year of uh Shay Gavara, Josh and Chuck. So, uh, Coupe, you're. the best. You know that. That is true, Coupe. Uh Mark Allen and the Trade.

Monkey team sent us some beautiful. jewelry made by female artisans in. Southeast Asia and traded fairly. The. key uh our buddy Van Nostrin sent us a. book. Which one? Which book? Well, he's. always sending us stuff, so I I honestly. can't even remember which book, but we. have like boxes full of things that he. sent. He sent us a CD of the Shags. Philosophy of the World. You know, what's known as the worst album ever. recorded. Yeah, I've got it in my desk. That's a sense of humor. The problem is. my computer doesn't have a CD drive any.

longer. Have you noticed that's gone? No. Yeah, computers don't have those any. longer. Try to find it on my computer. I. defy you. Uh I was like, "What's that. little slot?" And you're like, "That's. where the tissues come out." Right. It's. the coffee cup holder. Uh our buddies. from Venice Syncing, uh band sent us a. LP, Sand and Lines, and a CD, What We Do. is Secret. And there are friends from. Athens. Yep. Georgia. Huge huge thanks. to Hillary Lozar who has sent us a lot.

of cheese over the last year. Some of. the best cheese. Flathead Lake cheese. Yeah. Montana. Which like they make a. hoppy Gouda that's to die for. It is. very good. Flathead Lake cheese. And she. sent us some awesome t-shirts that say. mouth feel on them. Yeah. On our bar. episode. She's the best. She and her. husband Mike have been big- time fans. They're uh very active on our Facebook. page and they like drove to Seattle for. our show from Montana. From Montana.

Yeah. She's a teacher. Yep. And they. sent um Yumi and Emily earrings. So, thanks for that from all of us. That's. right. Jerry got nothing. Uh Tommy. Lucri. Uh Tommy Luck. Lucric Lutri. He sent us a nice letter. The man whose. last name you say four times. Well, he's. the guy. He's walking from Seattle to. New York City. And if you want to follow. this, I don't, he might be there by now. Uh, Tommywalks.tumblr.com, you can check that out. Okay. Um, huge. huge thanks from me personally to Laura.

Snow, who I don't know if you remember. when we did the Hot Wheels episode. Boy, do I. I said that the Hot Wheels I would. love to have was this like uh like. station wagon camper that said good time. camper on it. Oh, I remember. She mailed. it to me. That's pretty remarkable. Yeah. So, thank you very much, Laura. Snow, that was very nice of you. Yeah, if anyone's listening, uh, my favorite. Hot Wheel was the one that had a. thousand dollars stuffed in the body of. the car. It was a good one. Um, Stefan, uh, Stefan Braum, he sent us some.

currency bank notes. Yeah. Which I've. never collected money, but he sent a. 1953 dollar certificate, a 1957 series. $2 bill, and an 1874. fractional currency 10-cent note. Yeah, that was pretty neat. I think you got. the 10-centent note, didn't you? cuz we. sp I spent it on candy. No. What's this? It's 10 cents, sir. It's a. fraction of a note. Uh, meteorologist. Michael Herb, who also moons moonlights.

as a young adult murder mystery author, sent us a book of one of his murder. mysteries. Kevin McCloud in the Seaside. Storm. It's about a uh little weather. detective. It's pretty cute. Uh Jeff. Payton sent us a book, uh, Darwin's. Black Box. And um Bethany at the base element. the.bass.elementgmail.com. If you want any of the flur to sell. caramel she sent us, we can highly. recommend them. And I got one more from.

both of us. Chuck, you Dan Kent name. ring a bell? Uh it does. He sent us the. pint of Ply the Elder. Ew. Yes. Thank. you, Dan. That's why it rings a bell. You're a top-notch human being. I think. we met him in San Francisco at our show, too. Yes, thanks. So, the famous. worldrenowned Plany the Elder beer. Yes. Which I finally tried and it was. delicious. It is delish. Yep. Uh thank. you very much everybody. We have more if. you didn't hear your name. Uh hang.

tight. We've got probably a couple more. episodes worth of administrative. details. That's right. Or Thanksgiving. is what we're calling it now. And uh in. the meantime, you can get in touch with. us. Send us an email to. stuffodcast@ousstuffworks.com. And as always, join us at our home on. the web, stuff you should know.com. [Music]. Stuff You Should Know is a production of. iHeart Radio. For more podcasts, iHeart. Radio, visit the iHeart Radio app, Apple. Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your. favorite shows.

[Music].