Why the Race to Replace George Santos Is So Close

from The New York Times I'm Sabrina. tavernes and this is the. [Music]. daily today voters in New York will. choose the successor to George Santos. the disgraced Republican who was. expelled from Congress in. December Democrats would seem to have. the advantage instead it's a dead. Heat.

my colleague Nick fandos explains why. and tells me how the results of the race. will hold important clues for both. parties come. [Music]. [Applause]. [Music]. November it's Tuesday February. [Music]. 13th so Nick you've been following the. race for the seat forly occupied by.

George Santos and you know setting aside. Santos's brief and kind of riveting. Congressional tenure I'd like to start. with the most basic question which is. why does this race over this one house. seat on Long Island matter it's a great. question now I'd start by saying let's. not just so quickly race over George. Santos this was a guy whose year-long. embarrassment put this District on the. map I think left a lot of Voters there. really exacerbated I mean it is probably. the reason why you and I are talking.

right now that's very true but we're. also talking because this is a really. special district we're talking about a. slice of Queens and Long Island that is. racially diverse ethnically diverse got. people of all kinds of socioeconomic. statuses and as such it's the type of. place that we see all over the country. where elections are probably going to be. decided later this year for president. and for control of the House of. Representatives this area has swung back. and forth a lot so President Biden won. this District by eight points in 2020.

and then 2 years later in 2022 George. Santos was one of a handful of. Republicans who flip seats right here in. New York that helped the Republican. Party take the majority in the house I. remember that that was a big election. that Republicans just had a wipe out in. New York yeah so when Santos was. expelled in December this race becomes a. really big deal for both parties and. there's a couple reasons for that if the. Democrats can win and flip this seat. they could narrow Republicans majority.

right now in the present at a time when. they're trying to impeach the homeland. security secretary or fund the. government and make their life a lot. more difficult but it also is a race. that's going to set the tone for the. rest of 2024 and give the parties kind. of an early preview of where the. elections are headed for all of those. reasons Democrats feel like this is a. really good pickup opportunity for us. and also they're coming out of the. Santos train crash so you know it's. logical they would think that right. exactly but instead as we head into. election day today we're looking at a.

statistical Dead Heat and Nick what's. your understanding of why the race is so. close I think that there's really two. issues that have come to dominate this. race above anything else one of them is. a big International issue that has a. kind of particular local residence and. that's the war unfolding right now in. Gaza so this is one of the most Jewish. districts in the country and a lot of. Voters are looking very closely at both. candidates and how they're approaching. this the other one is an issue that it's. in headlines and conversations in.

Washington and all over the country. right now and that is the situation at. the southern border where we've seen a. historic influx of migrants trying to. cross and the Biden Administration is. struggling to figure out what to do. about it okay so let's talk about the. candidates and how they're dealing with. those issues so introduce me to the. Republican right so the Republican in. this race is a woman named Mazy pilip. the future of our nation is a stake in. these Trace for the third congressional.

district on February 13 she's a local. part-time legislator in Nassau County. with relatively little political. experience and this is shown on the. campaign Trail she's really not doing a. lot of public events she doesn't speak. in an unscripted way a lot of her. positions frankly have been hard for us. to hash out but in this particular. moment she has a really remarkable. personal story that I think she's been. able to kind of deafly use in the. campaign I grew up in Israel Israel for.

me a special place when I so she was. actually born in Ethiopia and as a young. child was airlifted to Israel where she. grew up I got my education I served in. the Israeli Army very proud and served. as a member of the Israeli Defense. Forces wow so she served in the military. she did yeah and has family members who. still live over there my family my. entire family live in Israel my nephews. as we speak fighting the terrorist she.

married a Ukrainian American doctor huh. moved to uh New York and and settled on. Long Island yeah and she said very. explicitly that October 7th changed her. in a very significant way for me this is. so personal so painful I can't it. propelled her to want to run in this. race this is Attack on the word so we. have to remember we have to be strong. and I'm Israel high thank you to front. both what she sees as anti-israel.

sentiment and anti-Semitism creeping up. all around the world and in American. politics particularly she says on the. left of the democratic party and how. does she present what she would do on. Israel I mean who is she in terms of the. policy stuff with Israel yeah so she is. a very staunch defender of Israel you. wouldn't be surprised she doesn't want. to put any condition on American Aid to. Israel she thinks a ceasefire is a. deeply unjust solution she in fact has. gone so far since October 7th that she. now now says a two-state solution a.

Palestinian and Israeli state is no. longer even possible oh wow um it should. just all be Israel so that's very. different than you know President. Biden's position for example that's. right and it's one of the few things. that separates her from her Democratic. opponent on this issue so tell me about. her Democratic opponent who is he all. right everybody well my name is Tom. swazi and I'm running for the United. States. Congress so the Democrat in this race is. Tom swazi he's a really well-known. Democrat locally he's been around for 30. years he was the Nassau County Executive.

and he was in fact a three-term member. of Congress representing this very seat. in my case you've got somebody that you. know somebody who's been around somebody. who's got a proven record of getting. things done before he decided to run for. governor didn't go so well and Santos. got elected and on this issue he's. presented himself as as staunchly. pro-israel as pilip is he doesn't want. to condition Aid he's against a. ceasefire okay I got to Israel about 7. hours ago to show solidarity with our. friends here in Israel and with our. Jewish friends throughout the the world.

and even in this incredibly short. campaign he took time out to fly over to. Israel to prove his bonafides it reminds. us that evil exists in the. world and we have to stand strong and. defeat this terrorist. operation okay so clear why they're both. doing that because it's a very Jewish. District but why is this an issue in. this District at all then they're both. pretty similar I think there's two parts. to understanding this one is the unique.

appeal of Philip's story so remember how. I said she was in the IDF she's also an. orthodox Jew she has seven kids who she. says she worries about facing. anti-Semitism in the United States she. has family in Israel our brothers and. sisters got attacked by a terrorist. organization she has made concerns about. this issue visceral in her campaign a. centerpiece of her campaign in a way. that frankly I haven't really seen. another candidate do out on the trail I. promise you the Jewish people the state.

of Israel the American people will make. you pay the price you. deserve and so she's basically giving. Jewish voters who are uncomfortable or. nervous in this moment feel like. historically unsettled an opportunity to. vote for someone like them and somebody. who is really going to go to Congress. and be a voice like nobody doubts that. this is going to be a centerpiece of her. identity. and Congress and at the same time swazi.

is dealing with this other problem which. is not so much about him but about his. party okay there's a concern right now I. think among a lot of American Jews and a. lot of Voters that I've talked to in. this race and rabbis that the Democratic. party's Left Flank has become. increasingly skeptical or even hostile. to Israel and so they may be fine with. Tom swasi but they're just really. worried about voting for Democrats at. all right now they either want to make a. protest or punish the party because they.

don't like the direction that it's going. and what's his message to them yeah so. swas is directly addressing this and. saying actually I agree with you but. that's the reason you've got to elect me. another Republican that supports Israel. is not adding much to the equation you. don't need another super strong. pro-israel Republican we've got plenty. of those you need somebody that is going. to stand up and get in the trenches and. fight with his own party that's how we. put up a Bull workk against this is. within the Democratic party what we need. are strong outspoken pro-israel.

Democrats that will stand up for Israel. and will stand up to the extreme left. and I'm the guy to do that I am uniquely. set up to fight exactly the force that. you were most afraid of which is. progressives on the left side of the. democratic party exactly and in my. reporting I've seen all kinds of signs. that voters are really kind of torn over. this so in one part of the district and. this is where pilip is actually from you. have a really large population of. Orthodox Jews and Iranian Jews who have. become very politically conservative in. recent years years and her campaign is.

banking on the fact that they are going. to be super motivated and come out with. huge numbers and that matters in a low. turnout election there's also a group of. Voters that are just DieHard Democrats. they're Jews they might be concerned. about Israel but you know they can't. support her because of her ties to the. Republican party and Trump or whatever. the reason but there seems to be a kind. of contingent in the middle of moderate. to Liberal American Jews who maybe would. have sided with Democrats who have been. an important part of their Coalition for. a long time that are now looking a lot.

more closely at this Choice I've talked. to rabbis who are describing. congregations that are pretty split down. the middle Jewish voters who say they. don't know which way to go they like. swazi personally but you know they've. never seen a candidate quite so. outwardly Jewish as pilip is and so. frankly I don't think we're going to. know the answer until later today as to. how all this broke down but in a race. that's really really close this group. actually has the potential to swing it. one way or the other it's pretty. interesting I mean the people in the. middle had it not been for October 7th.

perhaps they would have just voted for. the Democrat because that's kind of. maybe how they tended to vote but now. October 7th has kind of made this. chemical reaction and it's a little bit. of a wild card we don't know what's. going to happen right and this is one of. these issues that I think is being. watched by political strategists all. over the country who are wondering okay. what could this mean potentially in. other districts have the foundations of. American politics been shaken so hard. that Republicans can drive a wedge. between Jewish voters and Democrats and.

that could potentially have a real. impact across the. country and as if that wasn't enough. remember this district is going to offer. us a second test case on something that. is arguably even a bigger issue right. now and that's. [Music]. immigration.

we'll be right. [Music]. back so Nick tell me about how. immigration is shaping this race so let. me start by just zooming out for a. second since the pandemic there has been. a incredible buildup of people from. Venezuela Latin America other countries. trying to cross the southern border and. it's become a big issue Washington right. now last week we saw President Biden and.

Congress really tangling over a. potential border deal and it's become. one of the biggest issues for the 2024. campaign as well former president Trump. has made clear that this is the issue. that he wants to run on one of the ones. that he really thinks he can beat. President Biden up on and so on a. national level this issue is kind of. everywhere at the moment but there's an. unusual resonance I think here in New. York and in this District in particular. as well now I've been on the show before. talking about the migrant crisis here in.

New York and all those people streaming. over the southern border 170,000 of them. and Counting have come here to New York. City and it's been a huge quandry for. the city and for the state and the. Democrats who run New York it's been. expensive the mayor has talked about. having to slash the budget and all of. that is kind of playing out in this. District there's actually a migrant. shelter that the city has erected that. sits squarely in the congressional. district and a lot of Voters in it are. commuting into the city all the time and.

maybe are seeing people lined up outside. of hotels and if nothing else they're. reading all kinds of daily headlines uh. just last week the police commissioner. of New York was talking about a migrant. crime wave in New York City all of which. is kind of suggesting right chaos and. Chaos under Democrats watch both in. Washington and in New York okay so where. do we see this play out on the campaign. so this issue starts to show up in polls. very early in this race as a top. priority of Voters but I think the.

moment that it really crystallized on. the campaign trail that this thing that. immigration is going to be the center of. this campaign was a couple of weeks ago. when Mazy pilip the Republican candidate. decided to have her first major press. conference of the campaign outside that. migrant shelter in Queens my name is. Mazi pup I'm illegal immigrant and a. candidate for congress she shows up she. introduces herself as a legal immigrant. before she even said she's the. Republican candidate for congress the. District residents worry about our Brer.

crisis and talked about basically how. bad things have gotten on Democrats. watch she says he created this problem. he's been for Sanctuary cities in the. past like the crisis that we have here. right now it's their fault and I'm the. one that'll make it better so she's. saying I came here the right way legally. these people didn't and all of this is. happening under Democrats exactly so. this looks like a typical kind of. Republican issue right it's the things. that Republicans are doing all over the. country right now but the really kind of.

wild thing that happens is swasi finds. out that this is going to happen and he. gets in his car and drives to the. migrant shelter himself oh wow and sets. up a press conference right next to her. so that when she wraps up he steps up to. the microphones and says as we saw in. the press conference that my opponent. was get a few minutes ago she didn't. give any solutions she recounted why. it's a problem we all know it's a. problem some of us have been talking. about it for decades hi I'm the Democrat. in this race and I agree this is a total. problem for this district Key to solving.

problems complicated problems is. compromise you got to get both sides to. cut a deal that's the only way you can. solve these problems but here's how I. would deal with it I want to find a. bipartisan solution and my opponent. isn't going to do that so he basically. wants to show everybody he's no less. tough on the issue than she is he's like. okay I see your press conference I'll. raise you mine but like what's he really. doing here yeah it's a striking moment. because I think that we are used to in. the kind of political world thinking of. immigration as an issue that Republicans.

attack on and Democrats either stay. quiet or try to ignore it and here you. have the Democratic candidate really. diving head first into an issue that. poll show voters are blaming his party. for in some ways this is really kind of. typical for somebody like Tom swazi. who's a Centrist who likes to Buck his. party but I think it also reflects that. he learned an important lesson from. 20122 when Republicans perform much. better here in New York than they did in. the rest of the country and they did in. part by really speaking to and kind of.

channeling fears about Rising crime in. New York and Democrats by their own. admission didn't take it seriously. enough and they seated it to Republicans. swasi saw that and his takeaway was this. can't be a republican issue or. Democratic issue this is an issue that. voters care about and that they're. talking about and if I don't dive into. it and show them that I'm taking it. seriously and trying to solve it well. then yeah I am going to be politically. washed out with President Biden and. other Democrats who are getting the. blame. so he's really trying to both kind of.

separate himself from his party here in. an important way and dive into an issue. that we've seen Democrats pretty. uncomfortable grappling with which in a. way is a pretty bad sign for National. level Democrats right including Biden. heading into November like that a. democrat in a swing District of a blue. state is running away from his own. party's position on immigration but. that's also a pretty tricky needle for. him to thread yeah no doubt especially. in a special election where by the way.

candidates usually win and lose based on. their ability to turn out their most. loyal voters normally you're not. Reaching Across the aleis but I think. that swasi is finding himself having to. do this is emblematic of just how bad. this issue is for Democrats and how bad. their brand has become in a place like. the suburbs of New York City remember. Biden won this District pretty easily. four years ago but now in the latest. polling in this race and I'm talking to. voters out in the field it's quite clear. that Biden's numbers have dropped.

precipitously in fact he's trailing. Donald Trump and head-to-heads here in. the suburbs and a large part of that has. to do with immigration voters seem to be. very exercised by the sense of this. issue being out of control and Democrats. the ones that they put in power not. doing enough about it and so if pilp is. trying to make this race into basically. a referendum on President Biden and the. Democratic party viav immigration what. swasi is trying to do is make it a. battle between Tom swazi the Democrat.

and Mazy pip the Republican over who's. got the better idea to help solve this. problem he's saying yeah I agree with. you that we have a problem but let's. argue about the way to fix it and get. voters to really focus in on that and in. that area he may have gotten some help. last week you're referring to the deal. that the Republicans actually wanted and. then bailed on at the last minute this. deal in the Senate immigration that's. right so swasi is able to go out and say. look here's a bipartisan solution that. the Democrats agreed to give Republicans.

almost everything that they wanted. there's some money for the wall there's. money to speed up and change the Asylum. process we can increase deportations. this is the kind of thing that's going. to help us solve the problem in the. country this is the kind of thing that. I'd support So when his Republican. opponent comes out and trashes it and. says this is a legalization of the. invasion that we're seeing in the Border. swazi moves really quickly to say okay. remember my Republican was telling you. this was a really big problem now she. seems to be putting politics. over solving that policy problem because.

president Trump and her party would. rather not give President Biden the. victory basically saying look this is a. pretty cynical political move they're. using it for their own political gain. instead of actually trying to fix the. problem exactly and how does pilip. respond to that pilip responds by. basically doubling down and saying why. should we trust you on the solution when. you arguably helped create this problem. in the first place and this is where. swasi runs into some trouble with that. long record of his it turns out when.

you've been in politics for 30 years you. accumulate a record that's pretty easy. to go in and pluck things out of to. support an argument like this so. National Republicans and the pup. campaign have been airing millions of. dollars of ads that showed he voted with. Biden 100% of the time when he was still. in Congress so it really connects him to. the president on all kinds of issues and. then there's this one ad in particular. that has been running over and over and. over again illegal immigrants arriving. by the bus load why because Tom swazi.

repeatedly weakened America's borders. that includes a clip of swazi during his. ill-fated run for governor a couple of. years ago when I was county executive of. nasau County I kicked ice out of Nassau. County bragging on a debate stage about. how he kicked ice that is Immigration. and Customs Enforcement out of Nassau. County when he was County Executive. essentially a pro-immigration stance. right that's how it looks in Congress. he'll make it worse Congressional. leadership fund is responsible for the.

content of this. advertising now swasi has explained he. had good reason the ice officers pulled. guns on nasau County police officers but. when you really get under the data uh. and talk to strategists that are working. on this race that ad has taken a real. bite out of sw's image and seems to be. helping pup undermine voters trust in. his ability to solve the problem so. we've also seen in polls that voters who. care the most about the Border and. that's a plurality of Voters as we said.

trust pup more than they trust swasi. okay so given all of this you know of. course we're not going to know the. answer until tonight when we get the. election results but Nick just casting a. little bit ahead here say the Republican. wins say Philip wins what should. Republicans take away from that what's. the lesson there Republicans took a big. hit last week for pulling out of that. bipartisan immigration deal that they. themselves demand it and help negotiate.

but they did it for a reason arguably. they did it because it is a very good. political issue for them and they want. to run their 2024 campaigns on it and if. they are end up being successful in this. race which is really kind of the very. first test of that strategy I think it. may tell them that that was worth it at. least politically and that this is the. path that they ought to continue going. down both as they run against President. Biden but also in Senate and House races. all over the country where things are. close and voters may be similarly.

disposed to blame the Democrats for it. and on the other hand if Mazy pilip. loses and swasi wins well I don't think. that we'll see Republicans completely. abandon immigration as an issue by any. means I think they're going to have to. take a hard look at the kind of Suite of. issues that they're running on and. whether that alone is enough to get. candidates across the Finish Line in. these tough districts and Nick what. about the Democrat I mean what if swasi. wins what would that tell Democrats so.

swazi if he can win would essentially be. writing a playbook for Democrats across. the country and I think it would go. something like this keep pounding your. Republican opponent on abortion and. Trump and issues like that right but you. can't ignore the issues that Republicans. really like either you got to dive in in. the mud and start wrestling with them. and if you can separate yourself from. President Biden a little bit along the. way or you can otherwise show you're. willing to push against party Orthodoxy.

then voters might just reward you for. that they might look at you and say okay. this is the kind of politician who might. be able to help solve problems for us. let's give him a. shot and on the other hand if having. done all of that a candidate like Tom. swazi who entered this race well-known. and well-liked he had a democratic. registration advantage and a lot more. money than his Republican opponent can't. pull this out I think that's going to be. a very potent warning sign for President. Biden and his party that this fall is.

going to be one heck of a. [Music]. fight Nick thank you my pleasure. [Music]. Sabrina in a troubling sign for turnout. in Tuesday's special election heavy snow. was forecast in the New York metro area. over the day on Tuesday with some areas. expected to receive up to 2 in an hour a. significant storm could create even.

greater uncertainty in a contest whose. outcome is likely to be decided by a. small. margin we'll be right. back here's what else you should know. today on Monday Israel's military said. it had conducted a wave of attacks on.

the southern gazen city of Rafa to. provide cover for soldiers undertaking a. hostage Rescue Mission there Israeli. Special Forces raided a building There. Before Dawn freeing two hostages held by. Hamas the gazan health Ministry said at. least 67 Palestinians had been killed. the Ministries figures do not. distinguish between combatants and. civilians the operation was with El in. Israel and was a major boost for prime.

minister Benjamin Netanyahu but for. Palestinians it carried a sense of. forboding that a broader Israeli. operation to capture the city was. beginning Netanyahu has ordered the. military to draw plans to evacuate. civilians from Rafa but Aid groups say. there is no place left for them to. go and a judge in Atlanta said that he. would move ahead with a hearing later. this week delving into a romantic.

relationship between the two prosecutors. who were leading an election. interference case against Donald Trump. and his allies the revelations about the. relationship have created turmoil around. the case one of several against Trump. involving the 2020 election and his. alleged efforts to subvert it the. defense is trying to get the two. prosecutors fonnie Willis The Fulton. County district attorney and Nathan Wade. whom she hired to run the case. disqualified arguing that the.

relationship gives the appearance of. impropriety and would lead to an unfair. prosecution today's episode was produced. by MOJ zadii Eric krupky summer tamod. and Stella tan it was edited by Mark. George with help from Rachel quer. contains original music by Marian Lozano. and Rowan neimo and was engineered by. Chris Wood our theme music is by Jim. brunberg and Ben Lanser of.

[Music]. wonderly that's it for the daily I'm. Sabrina T SE see you. [Music]. tomorrow.