Why the Government is About to Shut Down

from New York Times I'm Michael babo. this is a. [Music]. day today a showdown between House. Republicans and their leader speaker. Kevin McCarthy is about to turn into a. government shutdown this weekend my. colleague Chief Washington correspondent. Carl Hol takes us inside the causes and.

the consequences of the looming. crisis it's Friday September. [Music]. 29th Carl we are talking to you at about. 12:00 on Thursday afternoon at this very. moment in your estimation How likely is. it that the US government shuts down the. deadline is 12:01 a.m. on Saturday I. mean pretty likely and here's one good.

reason for that the Senate right now is. not even scheduled to take a final vote. on its emergency plan until Sunday which. is not very helpful when the deadline is. midnight Saturday I mean there could be. a Kumbaya moment where everyone says. okay listen we're going to avoid this. let's just pass something to keep the. money going Panic could set in you know. it's like oh we're going to get killed. for this let's not do it but right now.

the timetable itself is set to have a. shutdown got it so we want you to. explain in way only you can why we're. going to be enduring this awful. experience of a government shutdown why. it is now looking inevitable and a lot. of the basic dynamics of course Carl. have become very familiar to our. listeners that Republicans have a very. slender majority and ever since they.

took over the house at the beginning of. the year that has meant that a very tiny. group of hard right. conservatives have been able to. basically run the United States House of. Representatives and Kevin McCarthy so I. take it back to his election for the. speaker about 20 very hardcore. conservative Republicans at various. points in that election were opposed to. speaker McCarthy so he couldn't really. get elected without making some.

concessions to these people certainly. the Democrats weren't going to bail them. out right so he made a lot of promises. back then none of them were written down. and all of us have asked hey can we see. these promises and Kevin McCarthy said. he didn't want anything written down so. among those promises was to return. federal spending to preco levels that's. what conservative Republicans want you. know all that money went out the door. for a lot of coid programs so the. promise was to go back to preco spending.

but that just hasn't happened and. they've been putting the heat on him to. fulfill that promise that's basically. what's going on right that was one of. the promises big spending cuts one of. the other promises and this one did get. written down was that at any single. moment under McCarthy's speakership a. single house Republican could call for. McCarthy to be removed as Speaker which. further empowered these far-right. Republicans as we talked about in past. episodes because it gives them a kind of.

power over his entire speakership and. now as you just established he has. disappointed them in that speakership. right so you're referring to what's. known as the motion to vacate so he. lives under this threat and they could. bring it forward so he operates. constantly trying to figure out how to. avoid having that motion called on him. and as I recall the first really big. time we see that play out is couple. months ago during the US debt cealing.

debate this I know these all get very. confusing and piled up but that was the. last time we faced a giant crisis of. whether our government could function. and it was around whether we might. default on our debt right which was a. serious very serious thing more serious. than a shutdown I would say right. defaulting would have been the first. time in history and it would have been. an economic. crisis so Kevin McCarthy I think.

recognized what was at stake in the debt. limit fight so we worked through the. night last night we're finalizing and he. decided ultimately sat down with the. president I said let's work together to. be able to raise the debt ceiling but. curve the amount of spending to cut a. deal with President Biden that set. certain spending levels that. dissatisfied a lot of his far-right. members we know at any time when you sit. and negotiate within two parties that. you got to work with both sides of the.

aisle so it's not 100% what everybody. wants but when you look the country is. going to and the deal ultimately passed. in the house with more democratic than. Republican votes right because in that. moment he basically chooses the nation's. Financial Health over potentially his. own relationship with these farri. Republicans who can kind of fire him at. any moment right and they were very. unhappy what I see here in this deal is. absolutely one of the biggest. Abominations since I've been in. Washington DC trillions and trillions of.

dollars in debt for crumbs we fought. extensively to empower each individual. member of Congress not unilaterally give. our authority over to the speaker to. negotiate a bad deal how come it is that. Republican leaders always tell us next. year we'll fight hard we really mean it. next year and that was when they kind of. laid down their marker and said listen. we are not going to let the business of. the house go forward unless you meet our.

demands on spending and we're going to. do that through procedural Guerilla. [Music]. Warfare and they did do it and trust me. they've been very. effective and that Dynamic is what's. gotten us to this point to where we're. facing a shutdown do you believe the. government is going to shut down yes and. it's Kevin McCarthy's fault that the. government is going to shut. down.

well let's talk about that because. McCarthy very well understands the only. way he avoids a shutdown another. potential government catastrophe is to. do what he did when it came to the debt. ceiling and the risk of default which is. to pass a bill that Democrats like and. that some moderate Republicans like but. of course as we have very well. established here that leaves him exposed. to this Republican maneuver of trying to. OU him as speaker right and that's a.

very real risk right now because Matt. Gates a republican from Florida who's. his chief Nemesis right now among. Republicans has said if McCarthy makes a. deal with the Democrats he will go with. the motion to vacate but for Kevin. McCarthy it's kind of the only way out. of this mess he has to cut a deal at. some point with Chuck Schumer and Joe. Biden there's no other way to do this. the Senate is controlled by democrats. and President Biden obviously is a. Democrat so he is in a position where he.

is trying to at least appear that he's. holding firm against the Democrats but. at some point he has to make a deal so. he decided to do something that he. thought would appease the right and. maybe get him past this and that was. announcing an impeachment inquiry of. President Biden right he thought that. could maybe satisfy these guys and give. him some wiggle room on spending. basically but it didn't they wanted to. impeach the president anyway and the the. fiscal Hawks are like well that doesn't.

change our mind on spending we still. want these spending cuts that even a lot. of the more mainstream House Republicans. don't want so you know this internal. dispute has really messed things up to. use a technical. term so not even an impeachment inquiry. into the president of the United States. based on what we have established pretty. shaky evidence is able to buy McCarthy. enough Goodwill with these hard right. Republicans to avoid us hurdling towards.

a shutdown I just want to understand why. McCarthy cannot once again work with the. Democrats to save the system and perhaps. assume that if he does that those. Democrats might bail him out in an. eventual vote that the farri Republicans. might want to hold to oust him that. would seem like a reasonable political. calculation yeah well I don't think it's. all that reasonable. Michael but so if he makes a deal with. the Democrats there's certainly going to.

be a move to OU him everyone has. promised that McCarthy knows that so. your question is are the Democrats going. to ride to the rescue right I have. talked to numerous Democrats about this. including the Democratic uh leader just. yesterday Hakeem Jeff from New York. obviously he says we're not there yet. we're not even thinking about it I'm not. sure they're not even thinking about it. I think they're thinking a lot about it. they're just not talking about it and. certainly not to me but I think after. the de limit vote the Democrats were.

happy with McCarthy he was willing to. take the risk he saved the country's. Financial standing and credit rating and. all of our 401ks right right so I think. if they'd had that vote then I think he. probably would have gotten help from. Democrats right now I'm not sure he gets. any help from Democrats because what did. he do to appease the far right one he. didn't stick to the agreement on the. debt limit that he made and two he said. let's impeach Joe Biden so they're like. well why would we go with this guy right.

those are those are not the keys to. unlocking Democratic support bailing out. on an agreement and starting a process. that could remove their president yeah. so there is no certainty obviously that. Democrats would help him but boy does. Kevin McCarthy want to be speaker he. loves being speaker I've never seen a. speaker and I I think I counted I've. been around for eight wow I've never. seen anyone kind of relish the job so. much he stands in the Rotunda in a photo. line and shakes hands and takes selfies.

with tourists I mean the guy is really. into it so he does not want to lose that. job certainly in like an embarrassing. humiliating thing on the floor and you. remember we were all standing there. watching these 15 votes that it took for. him to become speaker most people I. think would have said I don't really. want it that bad but he did and he does. so Carl what I'm hearing you say is we. should not underestimate the degree to. which Kevin McCarthy will cling to this.

job with everything he has to the very. last possible minute because he just. wants desperately to stay on his speaker. and so this shutdown will be the exact. opposite Dynamic of what happened with. that debt cealing negotiation instead of. being willing to risk his job to save. the system McCarthy will pretty. consciously sacrifice the system to save. this job he loves so much we don't know.

yet what his Moment of Truth is going to. be he could. still capitulate here and say okay I'm. got to do something to keep the. government open I'm going to work with. Democrats I'm going to take the risk I'm. a little Irish okay I don't walk away. from a battle I knew changing Washington. would not be easy I knew people would. but so far we have not seen that as he. did in the debt limit we want to be able. to win the policies that we've been. fighting for and telling the American.

public and I think right now he is. putting his interest in that job ahead. of the possible consequences of a. shutdown which we are at this very. moment careening towards and you know. what if it takes a fight I'll have a. fight and it's going to have big. consequences we've been through this. before and we know that there is some. pain some real pain some real pain for. people.

[Music]. we'll be right. back so Carl I want to talk about the. pain that comes with a shutdown assuming. as we are now doing that there's going. to be a shutdown in the next day or two. and this is not of course your first. shutdown so you bring some real. Authority to the subject of this pan not.

my first shutdown Rodeo as as they say. uh I I can't tell you how many I've been. through but I've been through long ones. short ones medium ones they all have. their own little Dynamic this one's a. little different because past shutdowns. have been like over one big issue right. so over Obamacare right that was a. shutdown the Democrats forced a a very. brief shutdown in 2018 over daaka the. Young undocumented immigrants brought.

here as kids and whether to get them. citizenship Trump had one over the. border wall this is a little more. amorphous right but the government. unfortunately knows how to do this. there's a manual liter literally a. manual I I I'm sure there's many many. manuals actually but if this one happens. it's going to happen on the weekend so. the first consequences you know won't be. felt as much it'll be kind of like a a. slow rolling disaster if it goes into to. next week and you know there's a lot of.

things that happen certainly things stay. open there's essential people but they. won't be paid I have a son who works on. Capitol Hill and he is not relishing the. prospect of not being paid certainly in. Washington in the surrounding area. there's a lot of people who will be. going without paychecks if this goes for. very long the military will not be paid. H in the past that's been avoided either. through a special bill to make sure that.

they keep getting paid or the defense. spending Bill had already been passed so. that part of the government was covered. this time not the case so they wouldn't. be paid unless there's a special step. taken to pay them that has not happened. so far another really important group. that won't be paid are air traffic. controllers obviously hugely important. to the economy and just to life in. general right we've already seen a bunch. of tra travel disruptions over the past.

months so can you imagine what happens. if there's some sort of slowdown there. with air traffic controllers I mean how. long are they going to be willing to. work without paid is like these jobs are. stressful enough do you really want them. being more stressed out by their. economic worries right and I guess we. should add Carl as our colleagues have. reported in the times that there's a. longtime National shortage of air traic. controllers it's well documented and the. idea of not paying controllers as you've. just raised. might lead some controllers to not show.

up at work maybe call in sick and then. you've got you know thousands of planes. in the airs and not enough air traffic. controllers and that's an incredibly. dangerous situation yeah I I'm not. looking forward to catching a plane in. those circumstances but I think that. this is a real concern that people have. what will happen to the air traffic. control system what happens to the. airports also I mean air traffic. controllers obviously aren't the only. thing there's other big popular parts of.

the federal government that will be. affected national parks now you still. may be able to go into a national park. but there's not going to be any like. facilities open bathrooms even and you. know one of the big images from past. shutdowns is trash piling up out on the. National Mall right because the people. who would normally pick it up aren't. being paid they're not working are not. there and the government also like. prohibits volunteers from my my. recollection is you can't go out there. and pick up that trashed so the.

consequences of this and the reach of it. are very Broad and here's another thing. it costs billions of dollars what do you. mean there's all sorts of costs. associated with the shutdown you know. shutting things down starting them back. up I mean the federal government is is a. huge thing and so you don't just go okay. it stops you know then you got to. restart everything so there is an actual. economic cost here that of course Carl. is a bit ironic for the people who are. triggering this shut down who say that. they want to cut federal spending you're.

saying on some level this is going to. cost the government more money yes. definitely true I mean there are costs. associated with it and that is one of. the great ironies here right also. interesting lawmakers get paid because. of the Constitution so they can't stop. themselves from being paid which is also. sort of not great look for them no not a. great look when the military is not. being paid and air traffic controllers. aren't being paid corre so given your. experience with past shutdowns help us. understand and how when and why these.

things become intolerable at some point. because they always do come to an end. there's just a question of how long I. think the last one was around 40 days. yeah and they do end one kind of truism. about it is once you get into a shutdown. it gets hard to get out legislatively. right people get dug in and some people. are going to go oh it's not that bad but. there will be bad I mean a travel. disruption there'll be something that. people will find intolerable as it drags.

on it and generally just people looking. at Congress going what is wrong with you. people honestly I do think that that's a. factor right and in terms of people. being mad at Congress and looking at. them and saying what's the matter with. you it doesn't feel like the blame here. is going to end up being all that. ambiguous right this is a republican. shut down through and through and so. ultimately it's going to be Republicans. who are going to have to decide it's. reached a Tipping Point right this is. really falling hard on the House. Republicans and I think that's a real.

concern for them going into the election. next year that people are going to go. you know this is ridiculous now I you. know they're trying their best to wiggle. out of it uh McCarthy was asked the. other day he like you know why are we. having this shut down he says ask Joe. Biden McCarthy is trying to shift the. blame right now but I don't think it's. going to work the House Republicans are. going to Bear the brunt for this one and. does that mean that Democrats on some. level are over in the corner with a. little bit of Glee on their faces or do.

they worry that like as with all. disasters it splashes on them too yeah I. think a little bit of that but I think. generally speaking most people on. Capitol Hill are like we can't do this. this is horribly disruptive but I think. at the White House also it's like people. ultimately look at this and say well the. president's got to do something so I. think that they are fairly sure that. Kevin McCarthy and the Republicans are. going to take the hit for this but they. don't want it to go on for too long cuz. then people start to say WHYY aren't you.

fixing this got it so it's a complicated. little balancing act for the Democrats. and for Biden Carl as you said earlier. when a deal finally comes and it always. does come it will by definition have to. be bipartisan yeah there's no way for it. not to be that's what the debt limit. showed you have to have a bipartisan. solution Chuck Schumer's been saying for. weeks and even Mitch McConnell saying. for weeks has to be bipartisan so it's. going to have to be that and and then at. that point we'll see how bad it is for.

Kevin McCarthy right and again almost by. definition it will be bad for Kevin. McCarthy and then he will have only. delayed this inevitable Showdown that he. fears so much that could endanger the. job he loves so much right unfortunately. all of that's being discussed is only a. temporary solution the most viable. resolution of this and now being. discussed is in the Senate with both. Republican and Democrat support but even.

that one only funds the government. through November 17th so you know we're. going to be having this fight again. you're saying we're gonna be having this. fight again again and maybe multiple. times actually so The Showdown for Kevin. McCarthy is coming the only question is. when does it come and does he survive. [Music]. it well Carl thank thank you very much I. assume we will be speaking with you.

again at some point in the next week. unfortunately that's probably true I. mean yeah I think this is uh going to be. a persistent issue right well Carl thank. you very much thanks. [Music]. Michael on Thursday afternoon after we. spoke with Carl the US government began. to formally notify federal workers that. a government shut down now appears to be.

[Music]. imminent we'll be right. back here's what else you need to Nate I. do not believe that the current evidence. would support articles of. impeachment that is something that an. inquiry has to establish on Thursday. during the first hearing of House. Republicans impeachment inquiry into.

President Biden the star Witnesses. testified that Republicans lacked proof. that Biden has committed impeachable. offenses I am not here today to even. suggest that there was corruption fraud. or any wrongdoing in my opinion more. information needs to be gathered and. assessed before I would make such an. assessment House Republicans are seeking. to show that Biden is improperly linked. to his son's overseas business dealings. but have struggled to find such evidence.

that prompted a Democrat involved in the. hearing representative Jamie Rasin to. mock the proceeding as a waste of time. if the Republicans had a Smoking Gun or. even a dripping water pistol they would. be presenting it today but they've got. nothing on Joe Biden all they can do is. return to the. thir today's episode was produced by. Mary Wilson and Eric krupky it was. edited by Rachel quer with help from.

Brendan clink BG contains original music. by Marian Lozano and was engineered by. Chris Wood our theme music is by Jim. runberg and Ben lansburg of. [Music]. wonderly the daily is made by Rachel. quer Lindsay Garrison Claire tennis gter. paig cow Michael Simon Johnson Brad. fiser Chris Wood Jessica Chung Stella.

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