Why the G.O.P. Nomination Fight Is Now (All But) Over

from The New York Times I'm Michael. borro this is the. daily. today the real meaning of Donald Trump's. Victory last night in the New Hampshire. Republican. primary I spoke with times political. correspondent Jonathan. Weissman it's Wednesday January. 24th.

Jonathan are you. rolling I'm rolling I'm I'm right here. okay very good so it is at this very. moment 11:03 p.m. and we have almost the. full results of the New Hampshire. primary I think 70 some per of the votes. are in so just walk us through the. Topline numbers so it looks like Donald.

Trump has beat Nikki Haley in New. Hampshire by about 10 and a half 11. percentage points that's certainly not. the kind of blowout that we saw in Iowa. it's not even as bad as some of the late. polling that had her down more like 15. 16 percentage points but for Nikki Haley. a loss is a loss she really needed to. pull New Hampshire out and it only gets.

a lot more difficult from here MH and. look what Trump won he won women he won. men he won Republicans he won. conservative Republicans he pretty much. did what he did in Iowa which was to. show that he has control over the. Republican. electorate right and now I think the. question on everyone's mind let's just. cut to the chase is whether this. domination battle is basically now over.

did Trump just end Nikki Haley's. candidacy effectively thank you New. Hampshire for the love the kindness the. support and a great night here tonight. thank you so much so after the race was. called Nikki hilly came out to her. Afterparty I'll call it and she said now. you've all heard the chatter among the. political class they're falling all over. themselves saying this race is over well.

I have news for all of them that New. Hampshire primary is the beginning of. this process not the end of this process. mhm this race is far from over there are. dozens of States left to go and the next. one is my sweet state of South. Carolina and she vowed she'll stay in. the race South Carolina voters don't. want a coronation they want an election. and we're going to give them one because.

we are just getting started thank you. for the energy right and I think we have. all observed in this primary and in. pretty much every primary I've covered. Jonathan you've covered as well that. candidates say they are in the race and. suddenly they're not in a heartbeat we. saw that with Jeb Bush Marco Rubio in. 2016 we saw that with Ronda Sanchez just. a few days ago just a few days ago. remember Dan Sanchez said he is not.

going to kneel down and kiss the ring. and then just days later he knelt down. and kissed the ring so yes just because. a candidate is saying she is going to. keep going doesn't necessarily mean she. will she has to take stock and decide. whether it is good for her so I'll ask. this question again is this race. effectively over has Donald Trump for. all intents and purposes wrapped up not. officially but in kind of the political.

real politique of this race the. Republican nomination yes Donald Trump. will be the nominee of the Republican. Party barring some miraculous. intervention that won't involve Nikki. Haley at this point well let's talk. Jonathan about why this played out the. way that it did in New Hampshire because. if you rewind the clock just a few days. ago a political lifetime ago our. understanding was that this was supposed.

to be a three-person race in New. Hampshire a three-person race that would. we predicted be focused on the battle. for number two that's where we left our. listeners off a week ago when we talked. to Shane goldmacher with the sense that. unless either Haley or Ron Des santis. dropped out they would just muck up each. other's path to being competitive with. Trump Dan santis as we just talked about. drops out in the middle of this past. week a theoretical Boon to Nikki ha.

and yet she lost by something like 10. points so just untangle that for us well. let's look at Ron de Sanz I mean by the. time Des Sanz dropped out he hardly had. any voters six percentage points in New. Hampshire in New Hampshire I'm sorry and. almost all of desantis's Voters said. that their second choice wasn't Nikki. Haley their second choice was Donald. Trump I actually think that desantis's. departure.

was kind of a stab in the back to Nikki. Haley Des santis not only left two days. before the election in New Hampshire but. he endorsed Trump and he went out with a. blast against the corporatist Nikki. Haley he didn't want his voters to go to. her so that was a big blow even though. she got the two-person race she wanted. we saw Trump's numbers go up not down. but regardless of what DeSantis is. supporters did or didn't have to offer.

Haley why then didn't Haley's own. strategy end up working at all in New. Hampshire where she has been on the rise. she campaigned a tremendous amount and. where her campaign said she was a. natural fit for this primary electorate. so what made her campaign think that say. that and why didn't It ultimately bear. out 4 % the largest chunk of the.

electorate in New Hampshire is. unaffiliated independent not connected. to the Democratic or the Republican. Party 40% that is a big chunk right and. the Assumption was that most of those. 40% the ones that wanted to vote in the. Republican primary were going to go to. Nikki Haley and Nikki Haley had a. template she could have looked back at. John McCain's campaign in 20 000 to see.

how you energize these unaffiliated. voters how you get folks that aren't. really tied to a political party or an. ideology decide with you and that. template is to actually reach out to. them in a big way to say I want. independent voters I want a big tent you. know voters in New Hampshire especially. Independents really want authenticity. they want access McCain in 2000 he would.

do these Town Hall meetings that would. go on and on and on until everybody had. asked every question that they could. come up with there was never a question. of him hiding he was out there he was. taking risks right Nikki Haley she would. go into like a diner she would give a. 15minute stump speech and then she would. leave sometimes she would say I'm going. to take questions today and she would. take literally like five questions if.

that that wasn't what New Hampshire. wanted to see they wanted access they. wanted authenticity and she just never. offered it up you know I was talking to. an independent from do New Hampshire a. few days ago and he had told me you know. I really wanted Chris Christie but with. chrisy out of the race I'll vote for. Nikki Haley I don't love her but I do. want to stop Donald Trump well he. reached out to me today and he said I. don't know if you're gonna do a.

follow-up story but I decided I just. can't vote for Nikki Haley I'm gonna go. and write in Joe Biden's name and I said. why and he said you know Nikki Hy never. asked me for my vote she never gave me a. compelling reason for me to vote for her. and if she's not going to do that I'm. not going to fascinating so how did. Haley's failure in in this telling to. follow that template and truly persuade. Independence in New Hampshire to come to. her how did that ultimately man EST in.

the final numbers we saw on Tuesday. night Haley won Independence no question. she won them but she didn't win them by. the overwhelming majorities that she. needed toh so she also had the other. side of the equation she needed to win a. good number of Republicans because. ultimately she's running for the. Republican nomination right and she. didn't do it Donald Trump absolutely.

overwhelmingly crushed her with. Republicans especially with Republicans. who identified themselves as. conservatives it really showed her. fundamental weakness because New. Hampshire is not as conservative a. republican base as she's going to be. facing in South Carolina and for much of. the country actually it's a pretty. moderate Republican base but she didn't. really win those people either if you. were an identified Republican you almost. certainly voted for Donald Trump right.

and you can't win the Republican. nomination without Republican votes and. just put a number around that how much. did Trump essentially Crush her among. Republicans here the numbers are. overwhelming Trump won about three. quarters three out of four Republicans. who went to vote voted for Donald J. Trump which is really interesting. because what that would seem to tell us. was that Nikki Haley's 44% or so second.

place finish in New Hampshire is kind of. misleading because so much of it is as. you have gotten at unique to the scale. of independent voters in that state and. the reality is she did pretty poorly. among Republicans who make up the rest. of the primary season electorate that. she's going to have to contend with in. the next few races and all of that makes. a certain sense given that her campaign. became a increasingly anti-trump whose.

main appeal was to the faction of. Republicans ready to move on from Donald. Trump which turned out in a place like. New Hampshire to be smaller than the. group of Republicans that very much want. him to be the. nominee yes from a message standpoint. she was really in a bind remember she. first started this as pretty respectful. of trump but she said you know it's time. to turn the page it's time for a new. generation of leadership I'm the new.

face of the Republican party then she. started being a little more critical of. him on policy and talking about he ran. up the debt by8. trillion he's leaving behind our allies. in Ukraine that didn't work very well. either then she started sharpening her. message about Trump personally and by. the end she was talking about Donald. Trump as an agent of chaos with a brain.

that seemed to be addling I mean she was. getting tougher and that didn't work. either right because the harder you go. at Trump the bigger the backlash is. against you but if you don't go at Trump. people will say well why are you even. running I'll vote for the original guy. right and if you're an independent why. would I turn to you at all if you're not. willing to criticize Trump and and so. Jonathan what we have witnessed step. back over the past two nomination.

contests Iowa now New Hampshire is that. you can't beat Trump by running as his. political Heir which DeSantis tried. didn't work you can't beat Trump by. running as ultimately his Nemesis or. critic which Nikki Haley just tried you. just can't beat him as a republican. pretty much. period yeah.

yes this is Donald Trump's. party and that's why after tonight. Donald Trump has this Republican. nomination wrapped. [Music]. up we'll be right. back so Jonathan with the caveat that. Nikki Haley does remain in the. Republican race for however long she.

decides to stay in it we are now. effectively in the very strange position. of a general election that basically. begins now 10 months before election day. yeah and you know what's really crazy. about it is it feels to voters like. these are two incumbent presidents you. have an incumbent president in Joe Biden. running against a former president who.

was only President you know less than. four years ago in Donald Trump right and. people are making a judgment based on. you know what kind of presidents they. were it feels like an incumbent on. incumbent election already and we should. say this is a general election that. improbably pits not just two incumbents. as you're describing but the exact same. two candidates who ran against each.

other four years ago one of whom sought. to overturn the results of that last. election 2020 and is now relying on that. same system to elevate him to become his. party's nominee and then will seek to. have that same system elect him. president and that race that last race. where Biden faced Trump and its. aftermath was a complete National trauma. and yet our political system is. recreating that same race yeah and.

remember after January 6th the. Republican Party had their moment they. could have been done with Donald Trump. at that time the wouldbe Speaker of the. House Kevin McCarthy went down to the. floor of the house to actually say no we. are not going to support the impeachment. of Donald Trump then we had Mitch. McConnell going to The Well of the. Senate. he had the opportunity to convict Trump.

in that impeachment and after the. conviction the Senate could have easily. voted with just a simple majority to Bar. Trump from ever holding federal office. again instead they acquitted him so here. we are now and the entire Republican. apparatus is coalescing around him. they're looking at the Republican. elector it and saying well if you can't.

beat him join him we saw Tim Scott right. behind Trump and and is victory speech. we saw John Corin who might be the next. Senate Majority Leader from Texas. indorsing Trump we saw people like. representative Nancy mace from South. Carolina who endorses Trump over Niki. Haley and it's not because Nikki Haley. is alienated all these people they don't.

hate her they just see the handwriting. on the wall and they fear Crossing. Donald Trump they feel like now is the. time they have to unite behind the. eventual nominee right we should say on. the other side of the 2024 ballot and. contributing to this rematch we're. talking about is a Democratic party. apparatus and Leadership that decided. that Joe Biden should be the nominee KNE. again and they worked pretty tirelessly.

to ensure that there would not be a. robust fight over that question and so. we now end up with a democratic nominee. that has real questions around his. popularity in a general election against. Trump who has real questions about his. popularity against Biden it is a truism. that incumbent presidents are very. difficult to defeat they almost always. win re-election and it was kind of.

natural for the Democratic party. apparatus its leadership to Rally around. Joe Biden as the incumbent but this is a. weak incumbent you can look at any. polling you can see he's weak with young. voters he's weak with Progressive voters. who right now are very angry at the war. in Gaza he is weak with black voters who. were really stung by inflation and feel.

like they didn't get all the things that. they were promised and he's really. weakened among Hispanic. voters he is looking like a weak. incumbent and yet the party Powers. rallied around him and now we have two. candidates running for president that. are not particularly popular with the. American people despite that though I. wonder if there is a way of looking at. tonight's results in New Hampshire just.

to go back to the main event here as any. kind of a positive development for. President Biden if once Nikki Haley does. eventually drop out of his race does it. feel correct or at all safe to assume. that at least some of her supporters. especially these independent voters. might be comfortable voting for. President Biden in a general election. many of them have told our colleagues. that they couldn't stomach voting for.

Trump and this is for all kinds of. reasons right for January 6th because of. Trump's conduct because of was criminal. liability and so on and therefore what. Nikki Haley did well in New Hampshire. bodess pretty well for Biden in November. and pretty poorly for Trump is that how. we should think about this when I look. at Nicki Haley's. 44% of New Hampshire I don't think. that's great news for Nikki Haley I. think it is really great news for Joe.

Biden the fact is Iowa is not a swing. state New Hampshire is a swing state and. I look at those Haley voters and see a. lot of potential support for Joe Biden I. mean the fact is we talked to a whole. lot of independent voters in New. Hampshire who said they're going to vote. for Nikki Haley because they wanted to. stop Donald Trump but they fully. acknowledged they plan to vote for Joe. Biden in the fall I think that what we.

see in those Haley voters in the exit. polling is a real fear of another Trump. term and that fear is going to show up. in a movement toward Joe Biden that. being said we don't know what all these. Haley voters are going to do in November. some of them might fall in line with. Donald Trump just the way so many other. people do some might just not go out and.

vote at all in November because they. don't like their choices and they don't. have to make one of the choices right. and to that point on this night where we. feel like we can say that this. Republican nomination contest is. basically over and that the general. election has commenced the reality is. that polling right now National polling. swing State polling shows this to be an. excruciatingly close general election. race yes it's 10 months out. but the closeness of it is kind of.

extraordinary and those same polls tell. us each and everyone that voters. especially those who man up being. decisive in this election are just not. happy with their choices most Americans. did not want a rematch between Donald. Trump and Joe Biden and that's leading. to this real sense of. dread a fear of what is going to be. coming over the next 9 10 months and.

even a denial you hear it all the time. Republicans saying oh Joe Biden isn't. really going to be the nominee somehow. there's some magical thing that he's. going to pull that the Democrats are. going to put up someone else or you talk. to Democrats and they say oh there's no. way Donald Trump's not really going to. be the nominee somehow maybe he'll be. put in prison it could happen maybe.

he'll be knocked off the ballot by a. constitutional intervention but the fact. is Underneath It All everybody is really. afraid about what is brewing for this. coming election right what you're really. saying is that there's some wishful. thinking happening right now on the part. of both parties and it's born out of. this sense of denial that you are. diagnosing in the electorate I mean.

people are so determined to avoid this. in their heads and in their worlds that. they're basically engaging in. Fantastical thinking we don't know. what's going to be actually going on in. this country by the time we actually. vote for the next president but right. now nobody wants this contest and how. both of these candidates navigate that. dread and perhaps propagate that dread.

could determine who is Victorious on. November. 2nd well Jonathan it is now Wednesday. morning get some sleep thank you very. much we appreciate it thank you for. having me. Michael.

we'll be right. back here's what else you need to. another day we found you know some uh. some loose bolts on uh many of our Max 9. so those many yeah uh so those are. things that are going to be rectified uh. through the inspection process in an. interview on Tuesday with NBC News the.

CEO of Alaska Airlines disclosed that. the company has found loose bolts on the. doors of multiple Boeing Max 9 jets in. its Fleet it was a startling Revelation. from an airline that experienced a blown. outdoor on a Boeing Max 9 mid-flight. earlier this month in the interview. Alaska's CEO Ben Minik Cuchi publicly. rebuked Boeing for the problem it makes. me angry Boeing is better than this um.

and um uh flight 1282 should never have. happened should never have. happened and the film Oppenheimer the. subject of yesterday's Daily won 13. Oscar nominations on Tuesday the most by. far of any film released last year the. movie which tells the story of the race. to build the atomic bomb won nominations. for Best Director best actor and best. cinematography among others and is now.

the front runner for Best. [Music]. Picture today's episode was produced by. AA chv Alex Stern and Michael Simon. Johnson it was edited by Rachel quer and. MJ Davis Lynn and was engineered by. Alyssa Moxley and contains original. music from Marian Lozano and Dan Powell. our theme music is by Jim brunberg and. Ben lanfer of.

[Music]. wonderly that's it for the daily I'm. Michael Boro see you. [Music]. tomorrow.