Why the Cease-Fire With Iran Keeps Crumbling

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>> From The New York Times, I'm Rachel. Abrams, and [music] this is The Daily. >> [music]. >> On Monday, the US and Iran exchanged. attacks and increasingly fiery rhetoric. for the third day in a row, [music]. leaving both sides on the verge of a. full-blown return to the war. Today, my colleague David Sanger.

explains [music] what brought us to this. point and what this new phase tells us. about how difficult [music] it will be. for the war to end. It's Tuesday, [music] July 14th. David Sanger, welcome back to The Daily. >> Good to be with you, Rachel. >> David, the last time we had you on the. show, Iran and the United States had. just reached what felt like at the time. to be quite a shaky ceasefire. We knew. that the agreement had been pretty.

rushed, and since then, it feels like. everything has basically just fallen. apart. The US just announced a blockade. of Iranian ports. It's going into effect. Tuesday afternoon. And so, I guess my first question is, is. the agreement that we last talked to you. about even still in effect? >> There's not much of it left. Um we all. suspected, Rachel, that this. agreement had the seeds of its own. destruction built in. >> Mhm. >> But I think even the most cynical about.

how the Iranians and the Americans would. interpret it differently. did not expect it to fall apart quite as. quickly as it did. And I think if you're trying to figure. out why that's happened, it basically. lies in the fact that it was so hastily. pieced together. It was so hastily announced when Vice. President Vance was sent over to sign. the document. He wouldn't even shake. hands with the Iranians and they. wouldn't shake hands with him.

>> Mhm. >> It was bound to fail. >> Right. You had basically told us, I. think, that this agreement essentially. kicked the can down the road on a lot of. kind of really big important issues. between the United States and Iran that. both sides needed to hash out. >> That's right, Rachel. And we were all. pretty focused at the time on what. needed to be accomplished in this 60-day. long negotiation. The first issue, of course, was the. nuclear program on which the 14-point. statement only said that Iran would.

blend down its nuclear material, essentially dilute it, so that it. couldn't be used for weapons. >> Mhm. >> But it left unclear who was going to. ultimately have possession of that. nuclear material or whether there would. be negotiations to limit Iran's missile. program or whether there would be any. language in a permanent agreement that. would benefit the protesters who have. taken to the streets. But while we were looking at all of.

that, Rachel, fact of the matter is we. never even got to that negotiation. There were some brief discussions, but. what overwhelmed the entire thing was. poor wording on the question of what it. even meant to open the Strait of Hormuz. >> I want to talk about that poor wording. for a second. What specifically did both. sides agree to vis-a-vis the strait? >> Well, Rachel, the controversy really. focuses on the meaning of the fifth. paragraph of this very short agreement.

>> want to read us? >> Yeah, I'll just read it to you. It says, "Iran will make arrangements. using its best efforts for the safe. passage of commercial vessels with no. charge for 60 days only from the Persian. Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa.". It's a single sentence. Seems pretty. clear, but there are some wiggle words. in it. It's best efforts. for safe passage. And the interpretation.

that the American side was pushing was. that this commits the Iranians to. opening up the narrow Strait of Hormuz, which has three different channels, one. near Iran, one in the middle of the. strait, one closer to Oman, and the. traffic would essentially be restored to. what it was before the war started on. February 28th. But the fact of the matter is, Rachel, that never happened. The Iranians. immediately said, "Yes, we'll reopen the strait, but we're.

only going to open up one channel. It's. the channel closest to Iran, the one. that takes you through Iranian. territorial waters.". >> And can you just explain, David, these. three channels, why are they only. suggesting that that one should be open? >> Because that channel is the one that's. closest in their control. >> Mhm. >> It's within their territorial waters. They patrol it with their own ships, and. ultimately, if that's the only channel. open, it's the one they plan to go.

charge a toll or some kind of service. fee for if you want to get through the. Strait of Hormuz. >> So, is this basically coming down to two. different interpretations about what it. means for the strait to be open? The. United States thinks the strait is the. strait, it's all open, and the Iranians. are saying, "Well, actually there's. three channels, and we can just choose. to open one of them.". >> Well, that's right, and I asked some. administration officials who were. briefing us on Friday, "Was this just a difference of. interpretation?" And one of the very.

senior people who was involved in this. said, "No, no, no, no. The Iranians. understood from the beginning that the. open straight meant it was entirely. open.". >> Mhm. >> The Iranian explanation is, "No, there's. nothing in that language that says we. had to fully open it. It just said we. had to make our best efforts. >> Right. >> to make sure there was safe passage. And. the safest way to take your cargo in and. out is right along the Iranian coast.". >> This is why contract attorneys hammer. out every single word of a contract so. that there is not wording that is open.

to such ambiguity that can be exploited. >> It's also why very experienced. diplomats, especially diplomats who have. dealt with Iran in the past, make sure. that the wording of international. agreements is as bulletproof as a. contract would be. But in this case, we don't have people who have negotiated. with Iran before on this kind of issue. involved in the talks. The president. quite deliberately put this in the hands. of his vice president, J.D. Vance, his.

son-in-law, Jared Kushner, his chief. envoy, Steve Witkoff. They've negotiated. deals, particularly Mr. Kushner and Mr. Witkoff, in the past, real estate deals. largely, but they weren't involved in. the Obama era negotiations that the. Trump administration has so denounced. If they had checked with a couple of. those diplomats, I think they probably. would have been warned that this wording. left huge loopholes. >> Nothing necessarily matters, David, but.

from your perspective, is one side's. interpretation of this paragraph five. language clearly correct or incorrect? >> Look, I think if you came to this. completely as a blank slate and you read. the words that were in front of you, you would immediately think the entire. straight was open. But, the Iranians are known for. reinterpreting this kind of thing. They. do it with nuclear inspections and where. the inspectors can go.

>> Mhm. >> We've seen them do this in a range of. other areas. So, it really was no. surprise. when you saw wording like best efforts. and no definition of what it meant to. open the straight, that there was. probably going to be trouble here. >> Right. You're basically saying this is. quite predictable because Iranians are. known for. perhaps, in the perspective of the. United States, operating in bad faith. >> Let me put it this way. When the. document was first published in.

mid-June, >> Mhm. >> I ran the wording by. people who have negotiated nuclear. accords and other accords with Iran in. the past, and it was the first thing. they flagged to me as potential trouble. >> And it seems like they were right, right? It seems like trouble has quite. clearly borne out. >> Oh, yeah. They were 100% right. But, you know what really strikes me, Rachel, in this is thinking about the. way the Trump administration was.

discussing. this agreement with Iran. just 3 weeks ago. At the time, J.D. Vance, on his way to. Switzerland to sign in this agreement, said something pretty interesting. He. said, "The coolest thing about the. progress we've. >> thing about the progress we've made over. the last few weeks is that you see. people within the Iranian system, senior. leadership, say, 'You know what? We may. have some animosity, we may have some. mistrust, but we recognize the way that. we've done business with the United. States for 47 years is a mistake. Let's.

try something else.'". >> So, the essence of J.D. Vance's argument. was that in these negotiations. they had not only won out in the. wording, they had actually converted the. Iranian leadership over to believing. that. >> [music]. >> we're in new territory here and we're. going to put all of the disputes of the. past aside and strike a deal that'll be. profitable for Iran and will of course.

bring down prices for Americans. >> [music]. >> And. you know, that didn't take that long for. that to fall apart. In fact, it was only. last week as the shooting was starting. again. in the strait that President Trump. called those same leaders scum. >> Right. >> and said, "They're sick people, they're. led by sick people and they're vicious, violent people and as far as I'm. concerned, it's just a waste of time.

dealing with them.". >> And I believe he also said at the time. that as far as he was concerned the. ceasefire was off. >> He did. He said it's over but the. negotiations could keep going on. Now, I don't know how you do those two. parts because the ceasefire was. essentially one of the legs of the stool. that kept everything together while they. did this bigger negotiation. And today that leg's been kicked out. And if anything, Rachel, we are now as.

far apart as we were before the. memorandum of understanding was signed. Because we're back to a blockade of all. traffic going in and out of Iranian. ports. In other words, an effort to try. to starve out the Iranians by cutting. off their oil revenue. We're back to a position where the US. Navy is stuck in the strait and there's. active fire.

>> [music]. >> And while we're not bombing the entire. country the way the US was in March and. the beginning of April, >> [music]. >> we are back to a period of on-and-off. hostility, neither war nor peace, but certainly a situation that the. president [music]. will find very difficult to extricate. himself from. >> [music].

>> We'll be right back. >> [music]. [music]. >> This Friday comes the new film The. Odyssey, written and directed by. Christopher Nolan. The mythic action. epic is the first movie shot entirely. with IMAX film cameras, making it an. immersive and expansive cinematic. experience meant to be seen on the. biggest screen possible. Starring Matt.

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at the table and have a back-and-forth. And you know, for all of the critiques. of the Obama era deal, at least at that. time, the chief negotiator for the. United States, Wendy Sherman, sat down. opposite her counterpart in the Iranian. leadership, and the Secretary of State. at the time, John Kerry, sat down. opposite Javid Zarif, who was the. Iranian foreign minister at the time, and they hashed things out. And. sometimes, when it got too heated, they.

took a walk around downtown Vienna to go. sort it out. That's not what's going on. here. What's going on here is messages. being passed through the Qataris or. through the Pakistanis. It's a pretty stilted process, and they. haven't really gotten. to even the first steps of writing a. comprehensive. nuclear agreement. And it's very hard. for me to imagine, Rachel, right now, with the two sides actively shooting at.

each other, the ceasefire declared off, a blockade back on the Iranian ports, that you could even start that process. up again. >> Right. >> And to the extent that they are talking. now, it's really just about free passage. in the strait, and maybe even getting back to a. cease-fire. But, all of those basics, the sort of. fundamentals you need in order to start. a conversation,

that's what's collapsed here. >> Basically, what you're saying is that. they cannot even begin to negotiate on. some of these really complicated. intractable problems until they get the. Strait open, which just to remind. everybody was open before this war. started. >> That's right. It was wide open. It was. wide open during the 1979. revolution. It was wide open during the. Iran-Iraq War. It was wide open during. our nuclear crises. And now, of course, it's sucking up all the oxygen in the.

negotiating room. >> It feels, David, like the administration. has sort of been treating the Strait as. if it's like the easiest problem to. solve compared to all these other issues. that you've described. But, what it. sounds like has been revealed to us is. that the Strait is kind of an issue. that's just as intractable as the. others. Do you think that's fair? >> It is because the Iranians have. discovered that it was a lot easier to. close down the Strait, and the weapon. was a lot more powerful than they had.

imagined. And so, now they have no interest in. giving it up. Look, they only have two forms of. leverage against the United States. One is the ability to build a nuclear. weapon on fairly short notice. And. that's not really available to them now. It hasn't been for a year since the US. attacked the three major nuclear sites. at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. >> Mhm. >> The second piece of leverage they have.

is the ability to cause havoc in the. world economy and world energy markets. Now, Rachel, that is not necessarily a. lasting power for the Iranians. You're. already seeing countries figure out how. to get energy elsewhere. Over time, you're going to see more pipelines built. to avoid having to send oil across the. strait. The Saudis have already. reactivated a unused pipeline they had. to route around the strait. So, the.

Iranians know that this is not going to. be a forever weapon. But, it's pretty good for right now. >> If that power is, as you described, just. kind of short-term, what is the value in. deploying it? Like, what is the end. game? >> Well, I'm not sure that they've got a a. long-term end game here, but the value. of deploying it right now is they are. showing that they can invoke as much. pain on the United States. as the US can invoke on Iran.

by resuming military action. And. what we've learned over the past few. months is that the Iranians have. a two-step play every time things get. rough with the United States again. >> Mhm. >> Step one is try to shut down the strait. And step two is direct missiles or. drones at US bases in the Arab world. that they can strike because they're.

relatively nearby. What they're doing is. sending a message that they can still. target their Arab neighbors, that. there's a price for hosting the United. States. You know, as one former official. put it to me, for years the Iranians. sort of kept a blind eye to the fact. that the US was keeping all these bases. in the Arab world, and now they're. outright attacking them. >> It feels, David, like what you were. saying is that Iran's main goal here is. simply to demonstrate to the United.

States that, "Hey, watch it, cuz we can. actually really hurt you.". >> I think that's right, Rachel, but I. think it goes deeper than that. Coming off of the funeral services last. week for Ayatollah Khomeini who was. killed in the first day of the war. I. think that the message from the Iranians. was, "We went up against the world's biggest. superpower. and we survived.". >> Mhm. >> And then they tried to go buy us off. with some kind of agreement to give up.

our nuclear program and give up control. over our own territory. And we're going to show them that we're. not just motivated by money, although. obviously the Iranians would love to be. able to sell their oil on the open. markets, but that this is about pride, it's about. nationalism, it's about showing that a. larger power, an imperial power in the. minds of the Iranians, is not going to. push them around. And I think you could.

argue. that that was something the. administration missed from the. beginning. >> Mhm. >> That they viewed this fundamentally as. the equivalent of a real estate deal, that everybody's going to act in their. rational economic interest. And in fact, the administration was up against a. revolutionary government whose ideology. has been hinged for 47 years on direct.

opposition to the United States. >> It's really interesting, David, that. the United States may have totally. misunderstood or misinterpreted or sort. of misjudged Iran's motivations here. And yet, as we've talked about on the. show before, Iran knows that time is on. its side, right? Because they know that. the longer they keep the strait closed, the higher gas prices will be. That is. painful for Trump. We're entering a. midterm. So, it almost feels like they. kind of understand us, but perhaps we.

have not really understood them. >> That's right, Rachel, but I think they. also understand one other thing. President Trump has said publicly a few. times, he just let it slip, "You know, I can't fight this war the. way I'd like to fight it." Which was. basically be putting ground troops on to. take the nuclear material, grab Kharg. Island where they export oil from, do all the things you would do if you. were at complete and total war with the. country. And he can't do it because he. knows the American people and the.

Congress would not stand for a ground. war that results in significant. casualties. And so, the result is he has been. relying on the power of the US military. to bomb Iran into submission. Then he got to this a second phase of. this, Rachel, where he believed that. even if he couldn't make the government. collapse, he could make them give up. their nuclear program. When he couldn't do that and oil prices. went so high,

he called for a ceasefire, and then eventually turned to diplomacy. And it's that diplomacy that has now. fallen apart, perhaps because it was. rushed. And now he's looking for plan C or D, depending on. where you think we are. >> And that's kind of what I'm curious. about, David. What phase of the war do. you think we are entering now? >> I think we're in the phase of the war. where we're trying again things that.

didn't work the first time. >> Mhm. >> You know, when he did the blockade for. the first time, he said, "This is going. to cause the Iranian economy to collapse. within days. They won't have any place. to pump their oil, their tanks are full, and so forth.". And then, 3 weeks ago when he did the. agreement, he essentially allowed the. Iranians to go ship that oil around the. world and get dollars for it. Now he's. trying that whole process all over. again. But the administration has not made an. argument to us yet that this is going to.

be any more effective. the second time. than it was the first. >> Do you think though David, even though we seem to be going back to. square one, do you get any indication from your. reporting that the Trump administration. is in some way beginning to reckon with. the idea that there is no quick way to. end this conflict? >> Rachel, that's the most fascinating. question because. I think until. a week or two ago, I would have said no.

But in recent days, I've heard the doubts. voice sort of. in smaller voices, in unanswered questions, and I think. they now recognize that a war that they. initially told Americans would be over. in 4 to 6 weeks, a war where the president said. repeatedly, "Oh, I just need another. week or so to clean this up and the. forces will begin withdrawing." I think. they now realize that they are stuck.

there for some time, that if the. Iranians are going to claim sovereignty. over. the Strait of Hormuz, that there is no. way to withdraw a significant American. naval force if you are determined to. keep that commerce open. You may remember that when we're closing. in on this 14-point plan, the president. called me. I was in London. I think you. and I talked the same night, right? And. what he said was, "I'm going to.

try this agreement, but if it doesn't. work, I'm going to patrol the entire Mid East, basically ad infinitum, and charge. everyone in the region, the Arab states, everybody who's protected by the US, a 20% fee, 20% of the value of the cargo they are. delivering, and the US will basically be. the paid peacekeeper of the region. It was kind of a shocking thing because.

his own Secretary of State was telling. us that the goal was to actually restore. the straight to the pre-war period where. there were no charges for anything, no. tolls, no service fees. And here was his. own boss, the president saying, "Yeah, there'll be a 20%. security charge that goes to the. taxpayers of the United States." Well, he dropped it after that phone call. until Monday. >> Well, we're taking over the straight. They have nothing. They've got nothing.

So, >> when he went on Fox News and repeated. that exact same concept. >> become the guardian of the straight. Maybe we'll call it the guardian angel. of the straight. >> Well, inherent in that concept is sort. of an admission that the US could be. there for months, for years. until there's an alternative way. to get the region's oil. to the markets of the world. And even if we are not at full-scale. war,

even if we are just caught on the. precipice between war and peace, more. like a. counterterrorism operation than a. full-scale war. >> [music]. >> That is the definition of the kind of. forever war presence, even if we're not. taking. >> [music]. >> significant casualties. Unfortunately, so far we have not. But that is exactly. what his MAGA supporters. were worried about with Iran, that we.

would go in and get stuck. >> David Sanger, >> [music]. >> thank you so much. >> Always great to be with you, Rachel. >> [music]. >> We'll be right back. >> These days it seems like AI agents are. just about everywhere you turn. Every. field and every function. But without.

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A federal immigration agent shot and. killed [music] a person in a vehicle on. Monday morning in Maine. The second. fatal shooting in a week involving an. ICE agent firing [music] into a vehicle. Agents were looking for a person who is. in the country illegally, according to a. statement from the Department of. Homeland Security, >> [music]. >> and they stopped a vehicle belonging to. what the agency described as a quote. illegal alien. The agency claimed [music] that the. driver then quote weaponized his vehicle. toward law enforcement, prompting an. officer to open fire.

It was unclear whether the driver was. the same person that agents were. searching for. No video footage had emerged as of. Monday night to confirm the government's. [music] version of events. And. >> Lindsey took care of his little [music]. sister. in years long departed. It's my honor to [music] ask his little. sister, Darlene Graham, to finish his work for [music] him now. >> Governor Henry McMaster of South. Carolina said that he would appoint. Senator Lindsey Graham's sister, Darlene.

Graham Nordone, to [music] finish his. Senate term after Graham's death on. Saturday. McMaster said that he asked Nordone to. fill the seat after they spoke [music]. immediately after Graham's death, and. that she had accepted quote through. tears. >> Lindsey has always [music] been there. for me, and now I will be there for him. >> My brother will finish his term. >> [music]. >> Today's episode [music] was produced by. Austa Charurvedi, Chris Benderev, and.

Rochelle Bonja. It was edited by Chris. Hackel [music] and Devon Taylor, and. contains music by Marion Lozano. Our theme music is by Wonderly. This episode was engineered by Alyssa. Moxley. >> [music]. [music]. >> That's it for The Daily. I'm Rachel. [music] Abrams. See you tomorrow.

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