Why Israel Is Delaying the Ground Invasion

from The New York Times I'm Sabrina. tavernes and this is the. [Music]. daily almost immediately after Israel. was attacked on October 7th it began. preparing for a ground invasion of. Gaza but more than 2 weeks later that. Invasion hasn't. happened today I talked to Jerusalem. bureau chief Patrick Kingsley about.

why it's Wednesday October. [Music]. 25th so Patrick it's 6:30 in the evening. in New York and it's 1:30 in the morning. where you are in Israel we know you've. had a really long day tell us where. we're reaching you right now and what. you've been doing you're reaching me on. the road between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

I've spent the last 9 hours watching um. security camera footage from a kibuts in. the South called kibuts B where more. than 100 people were killed on October. 7th during the Hamas terrorist attacks. and I've been trying to research exactly. what happened that day to try and piece. together the events of the day and.

it's been a long few weeks as it has for. everyone here Israelis and Palestinians. it has been a long and horrible few. weeks and I wanted to call you Patrick. because I wanted to hear what you had to. say about the next few weeks the next. phase and the thing that's really been a. central Focus I think for everyone and. certainly in our coverage has been a. ground invasion you know that was. something that we were hearing about. really from the very first days after.

this horrific attack on Israel and we. keep hearing that it is about to happen. and it is imminent there are currently. tens of thousands of troops amassed at. the southern border with Gaza you know. we've had colleagues there photographers. taking photographs of tanks arrayed in. fields really kind of contributing to. this feeling that this thing is about to. happen right but it hasn't so let's. start to unpack the reasons why.

well one reason why they might be. delaying is the fact that there are more. than 200 mostly Israeli hostages now in. captivity in Gaza it's believed that. most of them are being held underground. in hamas's network of subterranean. fortifications and there are intense. negotiations going on not directly. between Hamas and Israel because they. don't don't have formal relations but.

mediated by q and to some extent Egypt. there are talks to try and get some of. them out and we've already seen four. released there were two mother and. daughter released a few days ago and. then yesterday two elderly women were. released to the Egyptians over the. border between Egypt and. Gaza and there have been reports that. maybe there could be 50 more on the way.

in the coming days reports of maybe. women and children could be released. none of these have been confirmed but. while those negotiations still have a. chance of liberating some of the people. who've been captured it is thought that. Israel is holding back from ground. Invasion lest it harm the chances of. winning those people's freedom and as we. know getting hostages out is pretty. complicated it takes time so hostages is. one of the reasons for the wait it's one.

of the factors but there are others one. is that if Israel invades Gaza it is. feared that that will then open up a. second front with Hezbollah the Lebanese. militia that dominates Southern Lebanon. and which is Allied to Hamas and like. Hamas is backed by Iran so there's a. fear that they might get involved even. more than they already have done then. there's the fact that Hamas is very well.

dug in underneath its stronghold of Gaza. City it has hundreds of miles of tunnels. that it's borrowed away over the last. decade and a half and it's very hard to. get to them there and it's very easy for. their fighters to pop up through. openings in the ground and Ambush the. incoming Israeli Army and there's a. sense that this could become a kind of. of urban Quagmire cause huge loss of.

life to Gan civilians and to the Israeli. Ground Forces going in and trying to. Edge their way towards hamas's. stronghold in Gaza. City right I mean cities are notoriously. impossible to conquer right and Gaza is. this extremely densely populated place. like armies go in they get stuck I mean. this is something that the Americans. experienced in Iraq in fuah in 2004 and.

in the northern city of mosul in. 2016 I know that our colleagues in. Washington have been talking to American. officials and Tuesday Morning in the. paper had a big story about how American. officials were actually quite worried. that the Israeli military wasn't. prepared for this hadn't quite taken on. board just how difficult this fight. would be and might not be ready for it. how does that factor in well I think. that's not only an American concern.

there's talk in Israel that the Israeli. Army needs to gather more intelligence. about exactly where different Hamas. Fighters and different Hamas. fortifications are. situated and there's a sense that also. Israel isn't in a rush it doesn't need. to charge in immediately and the extra. time though nerve-wracking for its. forces it also gives them more time to. train remember that lot of the people.

that are massed on the GS and Border are. reservists who've been cooled up several. hundred thousand of them and I think. crucially it gives the Air Force more. time to try and take out Hamas Fighters. and tunnels from the air there are some. who think maybe they're trying to clear. certain Roots creating a kind of. corridor or corridors that will allow. their troops to enter Gaza and reach the. center of Gaza City by a slightly less.

obstructed route and of course there's. another layer to the planning here and. we also know this from Iraq and that's. of course the question of you know if. you do go in what do you do after that. like do you actually try to run it. that's the million dollar question. because even when Israel does retake the. Gaza Strip it's going to have to decide. whether it wants to govern The Enclave. as it did between 1967 and 2005 or.

whether it wants to relinquish control. of it at least nominally to some other. party it can't do that to Hamas the. whole point of going in is to destroy. Hamas and then that probably leaves the. Palestinian Authority which is the. Palestinian body that administers parts. of the occupied West Bank but if it did. that the Palestinian Authority would. face a real crisis of legitimacy because. because it would be perceived by many.

Guardians as having roded back to power. on the back of an Israeli tank and it. may find it would lose control of The. Enclave as quickly as it did in the. 2000s when it was given control of Gaza. for two years between 2005 and 2007. before being forced out by Hamas so yes. there are the hostages yes there are. fears of a second opening up with.

Lebanon but also there's the big. question of what will Israel do with. Gaza after it captures the territory and. it's a difficult choice and that is what. we presume is partly why prime minister. Benjamin Netanyahu the Israeli leader is. taking his time to issue an invasion. order yes as you say. ultimately that decision the decision of. whether to invade and all of the.

consequences it brings rests with one. man yes Benjamin. [Music]. Netanyahu we'll be right. back so Patrick bring me inside the. calculations of Benjamin Netanyahu at. this moment I mean initially of course. he declared there would be an end to.

Hamas with this great urgency and now. there's what appears to be a delay in. the ground Invasion one of the principal. ways that he would reach that objective. how does he see all of this I think the. first thing to remember is that. historically he's always been quite bad. at making big. decisions he tends to prevaricate and. delay. and try and push things off until the.

next day we've seen that all this year. with his domestic policies very. controversial plan to overhaul the. Judiciary no one's ever really been sure. what exactly his plan has been and his. plan has seemed to sort of change on a. kind of day byday basis and and that. also seems to be the case with this. planned invasion of Gaza but in a sense. that that's sort of netanyahu's.

trademark he pushes off big decisions. until the very last moment and partly. that's because it is a big decision if. he goes in there could be a big loss of. life for Israeli soldiers just as there. will be a even bigger loss of life for. ordinary Palestinians in Gaza and he. knows that that will bring pain to a lot. of Israelis a lot of Voters and it's not. not a decision that he or any Israeli.

leader is going to take lightly there's. another factor that some political. analysts have been talking about which. is that the failure of October the 7th. the collapse of the Israeli military. defenses in the South ultimately in many. people's eyes is on him the buck stops. with the prime minister of the day and. he is the Israeli leader who presided. over that failure and so while Israelis.

are relatively United at the moment. because it's a war and because they've. just experienced this huge trauma of. October 7th after the war it will be a. completely different case there's bound. to be a national inquiry and that. probably isn't going to look good for. the people who are in charge and that. includes Netanyahu it could collapse his. government that would then lead to a new. election and if the current situation. Remains the Same then he would struggle.

to win that election and he'd be out of. power so there are some people who think. that he's in no rush to start a ground. Invasion because the sooner the invasion. Begins the sooner the war ends and the. sooner the war ends the likelier it is. that there will be a threat to his. political power H so in other words you. know the decision is also a political. one for Netanyahu I potentially a matter.

of his political. survival yes and that's partly why he. was Keen to bring in members of the. opposition into his government a couple. of weeks ago he formed a Unity. government bringing in some members of. the census opposition including two. former senior generals that gave his. cabinet more experience more military. heft but it also meant that he can. spread responsibility whatever happens.

now is not just going to be on him it'll. also be on those two generals who he. brought into his War cabinet and that's. both a security minded decision but it's. also being construed by some analysts as. a very political decision because after. the war and when assessments are made of. how the war went he won't be alone on. the stage in front of critics who will. be analyzing his performance. and Patrick what is the public sentiment.

here I mean is there a chomping at the. bit to invade how does the Israeli. public see this I think the bottom line. is that polling shows that a majority of. Israelis do support a ground Invasion. and there's a sense that after what. Hamas did on October 7th there's no way. that Israel could really countenance. keeping Senate leadership on their. doorstep but underneath that headline.

there's a lot of nuance for a start. there's a small and not particularly. vocal minority that doesn't want to. invade at all and even among the people. that do want an invasion there are a. mixture of positions there are certainly. those that sound very vengeful there are. people on the the far right who are. calling for the expulsion of all pales. Ians from Gaza but then there's also.

probably a much bigger group that just. wants to get rid of Hamas and is wary of. the pain and loss that a ground Invasion. will bring it will be bloody it will. likely involve Great loss of life mostly. on the Palestinian side but also for the. Israeli soldiers and all across Israel. there are families probably the majority. of families that have someone who is. at the front or preparing to go to the.

front and those families know that their. loved one might not make it back and so. the whole conversation about an invasion. is tinged with a sense of necessity but. also a sense of anxiety and danger and. in the meantime the Israelis have. launched this Relentless series of air. strikes over Gaza you've been reporting. on that tell us what you're learning. Patrick what are you hearing in. reporting I think the bottom line is.

it's the most intense Israeli bombing. campaign on Gaza ever the military said. today that they had hit. 7,000 Targets in Gaza in just over two. and a half weeks wow 7,000 targets. exactly and the Hamas run Health. Ministry in. Gaza said yesterday that nearly nearly. 6,000 people had died during that.

bombing campaign that isn't a figure. that we've been able to verify but if. it's anything close to it then it's. quite a staggering number whole. neighborhoods have been leveled. including in the wealthier parts of Gaza. City areas that typically have not been. damaged or only lightly damaged in. previous rounds of conflict between.

Hamas and Israel Israel says that it. only targets militants and Military. infrastructure and that any civilian. loss of life is. because the militants Hamas borrow. themselves into civilian areas in order. to give themselves human Shields but to. Palestinians the bombing campaign. Israel's bombing campaign feels like. it's targeting civilians themselves. because there has been such a high death.

toll across Civil Society medical. workers killed journalists killed bombs. on marketplaces mosques and so on and. coupled with that is a rising. humanitarian crisis that has been set. off by Israel's Siege of Gaza it's cut. off water it's cut off electricity it's. cut off almost all Food. Supplies and it's encouraged hundreds of.

thousands of gazans to move from the. north of the strip to the South which. means that southern Gaza is very very. overcrowded people are Scavenging. essentially every day to find food and. water life's become extremely difficult. for Palestinians in Gaza not that it was. easy before the war but it's being taken. to another level.

now so Patrick is there a risk here you. know with these civilian casualties. mounting and this deepening humanitarian. crisis in Gaza that the longer the air. strikes continue the more Israel risks. losing support for its ground. offensive I think that's about right in. the opening days of this particular. conflict. Israel had just experienced what its.

president has called the bloodiest day. for Jews since the Holocaust and it felt. like there was broad Global support. particularly from leaders if not. citizens for Israel taking essentially. defensive action against the group that. had enacted all these massakers in. southern Israel Hamas but as time's gone. on and the air rates have increased and. the loss of life in Gaza has grown and.

grown and the narrative has shifted away. from The Villages that were raided in. southern Israel early this month to the. crowded urban areas of Gaza where. thousands of Palestinians have been. killed in bomb strikes as a result. you're starting to see different. messages come out from global leaders. one in which they talk about Israel. needing to respect international law.

avoiding loss of civilian life you're. not quite seeing Western leaders coming. out strongly against an invasion in and. of itself but there seem to be more. qualifiers and qualifications attached. to the West's expression of support for. Israel and that rhetorical shift May. accelerate and morph into something. stronger for example an out right. rejection of an Israeli invasion of.

Gaza so Patrick there have been a lot of. comparisons in recent days to the US. after 911 and you know this idea that. the US was in this fog of anger and. emotion after the attack and and made. some real strategic errors in the wake. of it namely invading. Iraq has this come up at all in your. reporting as you're talking to Israelis. people in the government Israeli. citizens is anybody talking about Israel.

and how it might be about to make a. strategic mistake if it does this ground. Invasion I think that the 911 comparison. has been made frequently both in Israel. and outside and to begin with I think. Israelis thought it was a useful. comparison to make because by comparing. it to 911 they could convey to the world. just what a big deal it was. for terrorists to come and Slaughter.

around 1400 Israelis many of them in. their homes but as time's gone on it's. taken on a double meaning because as you. say and as Joe Biden has said what. America did in the after Marth of 911 In. the Heat of its emotion was not. necessarily the wisest including the. invasion of Iraq and the quagar that. that became uh and certainly there are. plenty of people in Israel and outside.

who acknowledge that making decisions In. the Heat of the Moment is not the best. plan but at the same time other people. say well hang on Iraq was thousands of. miles away from America but Gaza is. right on Israel's doorstep and it. doesn't have the luxury of not taking. the threat of Hass seriously it has to. do something and far from being. irrational and emotional to respond to.

what Hamas has done it's actually the. most logical thing. to try to remove this organization that. just LED these bloody massacres in. southern Israel and then there's another. group of people that zoom out even. further and they're looking beyond what. happens if you root out hers and they're. saying it's all very well to get rid of. Hamas but if you don't have a wider plan.

not just for who runs Gaza but what to. do about the Israeli Palestinian. conflict how to address the long running. challenges and imbalances that have. created this conflict then a certain. point down the line there's going to be. just another explosion and a repeat and. the cycle will go on and. on so Patrick from everything you've.

said there are of course enormous risks. if Israel goes ahead with a ground. Invasion but there's also an enormous. human toll if Israel continues with. these air strikes while they delay but. is there also a third way that we're not. talking about here which is just calling. it off is there any chance that that's. where we're headed that a ground. Invasion may not happen at. all it's always possible and people are.

voicing that suggestion a little bit. more vocally than they were a few days. ago but I think if Israel didn't launch. a ground Invasion many Israelis would. see that as a capitulation to a group. that's just killed 1400 Israelis in a. single day that sets a about president. that makes Israel seem weak and would. caused them a massive loss of Faith so.

the idea that Israel would not respond. to something of that. magnitude and would just cool off a. ground Invasion and let the group that. perpetrated that Massacre remain on its. doorstep feels a little bit hard to. believe.

so does this mean we're going to be in. this place for a while you know. anticipating a ground Invasion with. really no end in sight of these air. strikes well anything's possible but us. reported on the ground certainly aren't. sanding down anytime soon. [Music]. ourselves. Patrick I don't hear the sound of the.

car behind you you're. home yes that's right I am home and I'm. looking forward to going to. bed I'm going to let you go to do that. thank you so much Patrick for talking to. me thank you Sabrina speak. [Music]. soon. [Music]. we'll be right.

back here's what else you should know. today a third lawyer who tried to help. Donald Trump overturn the results of the. 2020 election has pleaded guilty in a. Georgia racketeering case and agreed to. cooperate with prosecutors building a. case against Trump. the lawyer Jenna Ellis now joins Sydney.

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speakership during the vote on the house. [Music]. floor today's episode was produced by. Stella tan Assa chaturv and MOJ zi it. was edited by Michael benois and Liz. oalen contains original music by Diane. Wong and Pat mccusker and was engineered. by Chris Wood our theme music is by Jim. runberg and Ben lansberg of wonderly. [Music].

[Music]. that's it for the daily I'm Sabrina. Tavern see you. tomorrow.