Who’s Really Running Iran?

From the New York Times, I'm Natalie. Kitroeff. This is The Daily. >> [music]. >> It was a chaotic weekend of news out of. Washington. >> [music]. >> There was a shooting at an event where. President Trump and top cabinet. officials were gathered, [music] which. we're following and will update on later. in the show. And also, Trump abruptly and. dramatically called off the latest. [music] round of peace talks with Iran. at the very last minute, leaving the.

fate of the ceasefire in limbo. One of the main reasons Trump gave was. that he doesn't think Iran is sending. credible negotiators to the [music]. table and says he has no idea who's. actually in charge of the country. Today, my colleague Farnaz Fassihi takes. us inside the world of Iran's leaders. and explains what her reporting [music]. reveals about what they really want. It's Monday, [music] April 27th.

Farnaz, it's wonderful to have you back. on the show. Thank you for having me, Natalie. So, what do we know about what just. happened? Where we saw Trump suddenly. back away from face-to-face negotiations. with Iran. It almost seemed like over. the weekend he kind of turned the team. of American negotiators around as they. were basically on their way to the. airport. We started this weekend thinking that. Iranians and Americans were going to.

meet in Islamabad for a second round of. negotiations. Iran's foreign minister. went to Islamabad and the US special. envoy, Steve Whitkoff, and President. Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, were. scheduled to also fly to Pakistan on. Saturday, and everyone anticipated. another round of talks. And then we. started getting mixed messages. The. Iranians said, "Oh, well, we're not. meeting directly with the Americans.". And the foreign minister left Pakistan, and President Trump abruptly announced.

on social media that he was canceling. the talks and not sending his envoys to. meet with the Iranians. And now we're in a state of limbo. There's no talks. There's a unilateral. [clears throat]. ceasefire declared by President Trump. without a set deadline. And the Iranians. are under a sea blockade. So, the. situation, I think, is very fragile. And. what about the president's claim, which. he made on social media over the. weekend, and he's made before, that the. Iranian regime is in complete disarray,

and that he doesn't even know who's. making the decisions in the country? Well, since the start of this war, some. of the big questions have been, "Who's. running Iran? Who's making the. decisions? Where is the new supreme. leader, Mojtaba Khamenei? And are there. divisions at the top?" I spent the past. month reporting these questions, talking. to sources inside Iran. I interviewed 22. people inside Iran. Some of them were. senior officials, some were members of. the Revolutionary Guards, some of them.

know Mojtaba Khamenei or his father, and. all of them understand the framework of. how decisions are being made in Iran and. how the country is being run. And that. has helped me answer this puzzle. Through just extraordinarily deep. reporting. So, what have you learned? Well, I'll tell you, in my interviews. over the past month, every time I would. ask that question from sources, I would. say, "Who is making the decisions? Who's. running the country?".

And I would hear Sepah. Sepah. Sepah means the Revolutionary. Guards. No one said the Ayatollah. No one said. it's the supreme leader, and that was. just such a difference to how things. were done before the war, where the. senior Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme. leader of Iran for 37 years, always had. the last word on all decisions that were. critical to the state. And, you know, before the war, whenever I would ask, "Who's making the decision?" It would.

say, "We're waiting for Mr. Khamenei to. decide. We're waiting for him to say yes. or no." And now it's the generals. Since the war started, a cohort of. senior Revolutionary Guards generals. have sort of taken over running and. managing the war and running the. country. Okay, you're saying something that's. actually pretty stark, which is worth. just lingering on for a moment, which is. that the supreme leader is not the one. calling the shots here. And so, I have. to ask, when we say the Revolutionary.

Guards are, who are they? Who are we. talking about? The Revolutionary Guards. are the most elite military force in. Iran. They were created in the aftermath. of the 1979 Islamic Revolution as sort. of a line of defense for the regime. But. over the past nearly half a century that. the Islamic Republic's been in power, the Revolutionary Guards have expanded. their reach and expanded their power. When we hear think about a military.

force, we think of people in uniform who. are in military bases and making. military decisions. Right. >> But the Revolutionary Guards are all. over the place in Iran. They hold key. positions in the government. Many. lawmakers, ministers, presidents have. been former Revolutionary Guards. The. current speaker of parliament, who's. leading the negotiations with the US, is. a commander of the Revolutionary Guards. The head of the National Security. Council is a Revolutionary Guards.

commander. And they also have a big. footprint in Iran's economy. Mhm. Right. They have a huge conglomerate in every. economic sector from energy to. transportation to even tourism that you. can think of. So, they really are the. parallel power in Iran. And now, as a. result of war, they've become the. dominant power. That's fascinating. You. know, it's part of a pattern of the. country becoming more and more. militarized and the influence of the. clerics fading. So, this ubiquity of the.

guards, that's something that's been. developing over time. Their presence. everywhere. This isn't new, per se. Right, it's not new, but it's never been. this dominant. The Revolutionary Guards. have been rising for years. The former supreme leader really relied. on them for securing Iran's borders, for. navigating and cultivating relationships. with proxy militant groups in the region. that were aligned with Iran.

ideologically, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in. Gaza, and the Shia militia in Iraq. And also, whenever there was an uprising. inside the country and protest against. the government, it was the guards that. took over security and crushed those. protests. And in exchange, the guards. were sort of given more of a free hand. to enter politics and to enter the. economy, and that empowered them in ways. that was far beyond their military role.

in Iran. But they could only rise so far under. the leadership of Ayatollah Khamenei, the father, because he was the person. with the final authority over. everything. But this war. created an opening for them. And the guards saw the killing of. Ayatollah Khamenei by the United States. and Israel on the first day of the war. as an opportunity, as an opportunity to. put in place a new supreme leader who.

had close ties to them and through whom. they could rule Iran. Right. You told us last time on the show. that the guards were absolutely critical. in putting the younger Khamenei in place. as supreme leader. They basically got. him there. Exactly. They totally got him. there. I mean, I think the last time we. spoke, we talked about the succession. war and Game of Thrones that was going. on to replace the senior Ayatollah, and. that the Revolutionary Guards really. pushed to have the son succeed him. And.

so, the reason you're saying that the. new supreme leader has less sway over. the guards is in part because he's. indebted to them. Is that right? I think. there are a number of factors, Natalie. One is that he's indebted to them for. his position as the new supreme leader. He's also indebted to them for the. survival of the regime, right? I mean, if the Revolutionary Guards basically. managed to contain the threat that this.

war brought to the regime when the. Israeli and American air strikes. happened, two military superpowers. attacking Iran, the regime thought that. this was an existential threat, right? But now they seem confident that they've. contained the threat and there's no. signs of them cracking or defecting or. the Islamic Republic toppling. There are. other reasons for why he's deferring to. the guards as well. Part of it is his injuries. Mojtaba.

Khamenei was gravely injured in the air. strikes that targeted his father's. compound. Right. That's been a big. question mark is exactly how injured. Very injured. I've heard that one of his. legs may be amputated. He's had three. operations and is waiting for a. prosthetic leg. He's had operations on one of his arms. and hands, and his face and lips have. been burned severely. And the burns are. so extensive that he can't even speak.

properly, which is one of the reasons. why we haven't heard his voice or seen. his face. Yeah, I was going to ask if. that's one of the reasons why he hasn't. made a public appearance. I mean, I'd. imagine that also limits his clout, but. it sounds like he just can't right now. No, he can't right now. Sources that I. talked to who know him said that he. doesn't want to appear weak and. vulnerable in the first public address. that he gives to the people, whether. it's audio or visual. The extent that.

the public has heard from him has been. several written statements that the. state media has read or it's been. published on social media. And another. reason is also the logistics of his. security situation. Hmm. Talk to me. about that. Well, from the first day of. the war, Israel he said that whoever. succeeds Mr. Khamenei will be a target. And specifically said that Moqtada is on. their assassination target list. So, he's been moved to a very high-secure.

secret place. Access to him is almost. impossible for government officials or. military commanders. There's no. electronics around him. He can't speak. on the phone or engage electronically in. any way. And communicating with him is. sort of, you know, the old ways of. writing longhand letters, sealing it in. an envelope, and having a human chain of. couriers carry the letters to his secure. place and then back. And logistically,

that takes time. So, you can't imagine. that. it's hard for him to be making decisions. in real time, and he would have to. delegate some authority to the generals. that he trusts. Okay. So, you've described a situation. in which there's this empowered group of. generals within the Revolutionary Guards. who technically answer to the supreme. leader, but that supreme leader is in. hiding, he's badly injured, he's really. hard to get to. So, how do they actually.

make decisions in that scenario? Like, how does that work? Well, you know, in Iran, particularly in. this new era, decisions are being made. more collectively and collaboratively. The generals definitely are leading the. charge on calling the shots, but there's. a debate going on. In fact, people who I. spoke to in Iran were telling me that. the decision-making is now kind of like. a board of directors that the Ayatollah. is sort of the director of the board, and the generals are the members of the.

board, and that yeah, it's not a one-man. show anymore. And when those decisions. are eventually brought to the supreme. leader through couriers to his hideout, is he essentially being asked to. rubber-stamp them? What's his role in. this? His role is to give them feedback and to. approve them. Because one way that the. generals can tell the public that the. decisions that they're making is. legitimate, particularly when it comes.

to giving any concessions to the United. States, is to say, "Look, what we're. deciding is endorsed by the supreme. leader, so everyone should go along.". As to whether it's a rubber-stamp, well, to the best of our knowledge, he hasn't. objected to any of their decisions yet, and he's gone along. Part of that reason. is because of the relationship that he. has with the generals and the trust that. he has. Okay. Talk to me about that. That relationship and that trust. How. should we understand it? So, we always. knew that he had close ties to the.

guards, but my reporting shows that. these ties go much deeper, and they go. back decades. One way to understand it. is that the supreme leader now has some. of his best friends, people he has known. since he was a teenager and grew up with. in charge. >> Huh. And that story goes back to when he. was 17 years old in the 1980s, he. volunteered to go fight in the Iran-Iraq. War, and he was placed in a. Revolutionary Guards battalion called.

the Happy Brigade. And in the Happy Brigade, there were. other young soldiers who had. volunteered. And I interviewed one of. his close friends who was deployed with. him to that brigade, and he told me. that, "Look, this experience really. shaped us, and those bonds we made with. the battle buddies. really like carried us and became. lifelong.". As this group aged, they climbed the. ranks of power. Some of his friends from. this particular brigade became key.

influential politicians and military. commanders and intelligence officials. And we're kind of seeing that play out. right now. It's a relationship of. friends who are on first-name basis and. of peers. So, you're saying part of this. trust is really that. Khamenei has deep ties with these people. that go back years. I mean, he trusts. them because he's known them for a very. long time and has worked directly with.

him. Exactly. And that's become a. central dynamic of this relationship. right now between the supreme leader and. the guards. So, when you add this whole picture. together, what you're describing is a. pretty fundamental shift in the way that. the entire country and its government. works. Before, the supreme leader. empowered the guards, yes, but also. directed them. And now, it kind of seems. like the tail is wagging the dog. Yes.

You know, I think when most people, Natalie, think of Iran, they think of an. Islamic theocracy run by clerics. We've. always referred to Iran as a clerical. rule, right? And we're seeing that. change in real time. >> [music]. >> now. It's shifting away and transforming from. a [music] clerical theocracy to a. military dictatorship with a cleric as.

its leader. So, I think this change could have. surprising implications for Iran and. also for negotiations with the United. States. >> [music]. [music]. >> We'll be right back.

>> [music]. >> Farnaz, just explain why it matters that. the power structure in Iran, as you just. told us, is shifting to one where the. military, the guards, really hold all. the cards and the clerics are secondary. Well, for Iranians, it could be worse. politically. It could be. more repression if that's at all. possible.

>> Hmm. Because we've seen the guards over. the years, whenever there's a protest or. uprising, take control of crackdowns and. killings and crushing the protests. So, it's very likely that dissent will be. less tolerated, that there'll even be. more crackdowns. But, in terms of negotiations with the. United States or the way that Iran might. deal with the West, the guards could be more pragmatic than. the clerics and their religious.

ideology. Hold on. What? The military hardliners. could be more pragmatic? How? Well, because these generals are not as. motivated and driven by the cleric. ideology that defined Iran in the past. 47 years, sort of the death to America, the religious theocracy. What motivates. these generals is power and money. Hmm. And for both of those things to happen,

the regime needs to survive and it needs. to thrive economically. So, when you say these generals are not. ideological, it sounds like what you're. saying is they're not really driven as. much by a cause. They're driven. essentially by self-preservation. It is worth noting that this is. definitely not how we've been talking. about them up until this point. We've. been talking about them as hardliners. Right. The view of the Islamic Republic.

from the outside is an ideological. theocracy driven by anti-American and. anti-Israeli and religious Islamic. ideology. And that's sort of how they've. organized themselves for much of the. time that they've ruled. There's. definitely a faction still within the. system that is very hardline, that is. driven exactly by those ideologies, but. they've been kind of sidelined from. decision-making. And the generals who. are now in charge have a real interest.

in making a deal with the United States. because they view this as survival. And that's a real shift because, remember, just up until a few months. ago, the former Ayatollah Khamenei, the. supreme leader, had banned Iranians from. directly engaging with Americans. But, 5. weeks after the US killed their supreme. leader and waging a vicious war against. Iran, suddenly, the commanders of the. Revolutionary Guards are sitting across. the table from Vice President J.D.

Vance. I mean, I would not believe it if. someone had told me that 5 weeks ago. But, can I just raise a question about. this on their pragmatism? We have seen. these generals in charge really willing. to use hardline tactics. Like, they've. been willing to hold up the strait. They've been willing to bomb their. neighbors to sow chaos in the region. Does that bear on their pragmatism? Like, how do you make sense of that? We've seen the generals deploy tactics.

that they thought would preserve the. Islamic Republic system and regime by. escalating the war and making it very. costly for not just US and Israel, but. also for the all the Arab countries by. blowing up the region, thinking that. this would create deterrence, right? But, we've also seen that they've. discovered the Strait of Hormuz as a new. card, as something that they could upend. the global economy with and have impact. on the energy supplies of the world at.

fertilizer supplies and all commercial. ships, oil tankers. They're using these tactics because they. want to gain leverage at the negotiating. table. Leverage that they can come sit. across this table from the United States. and say in exchange for opening the. Strait, we want you to lift the. sanctions against us or we want you to. unfreeze billions of dollars of our. assets that are frozen. So, that's the. key thing to remember is that there's a.

strategy behind the Iranian. Revolutionary Guard's moves. Okay, you're starting to get into this, but. let's talk about the actual terms of any. deal. You said these generals are open. to a real give-and-take with the. American side. So, what are they willing. to offer and what do they want? The most important incentive for Iran, for its leaders and the Revolutionary. Guard is to reach some sort of an end to.

hostilities and to get sanctions relief. Iran's economy was in shambles even. before the war, its currency was. plunging and inflation was skyrocketing. and the war has just made everything. worse and there's also on top of that an. estimate of from 300 billion to 1. trillion dollars of economic losses as a. result of the war. >> [snorts]. >> In order for Iran to rebuild and. reconstruct, it needs to lift sanctions. and it needs to get access to its funds.

and sort of the global financial. markets. From Iran's perspective, basically, the idea is, look, the United. States and Israel have really destroyed. a lot of our country. We need money to. rebuild it. Exactly, we need money to. rebuild it, we need money to improve the. economy because one of the big sources. of dissent and protest has been. economically driven. And you know, one. of the things that they've done is. they've proposed a very detailed list of.

ways in which American companies can. come to Iran and invest in Iran. For the. first time in 47 years, the generals. have gone to the Americans and said, "If. there's a deal, your oil and shipping. companies can come and invest in Iran. You can help us reconstruct and. rebuild." And that's something that's. never been done before. The senior. Ayatollah Khamenei had specifically. banned all American companies from. coming to Iran after the 2015 nuclear.

deal and now the generals are doing away. with that order. They're actually, you're saying, talking about inviting. the Americans in as investors, as. collaborators. You're saying working. with them to rebuild the country, really. Yes, exactly. These generals are. basically appealing to President Trump's. business side and deal-making side. They're trying to create financial. incentives for the Trump administration. to engage with Iran, similar to what a. lot of other countries have done.

Just fascinating. What about the other sticking points of. any deal? For example, the big one, restricting the enrichment of uranium. that the Iranians could use to build a. bomb. Where do they stand on that? These are sticking points, Natalie. To. what level Iran is willing to stop. enriching uranium, whether it's going to. be a suspension or shutting down its. nuclear programs and what it's going to. do with the stockpile of highly enriched. uranium that it has. These are issues.

that have not been resolved. But I think. the most important thing for Iran is to. save face. Mhm. They don't want to look. as if they've surrendered. President. Trump really likes to keep saying that I. have achieved something that no American. president has achieved. I've destroyed. Iran's military and nuclear capabilities. and he wants to say that the war forced. Iran to capitulate. And Iran is. absolutely adamant, whatever deal it. reaches, it's also able to save face.

And a lot of I think the tension is now. around this idea that how do we reach a. deal where we don't look like we gave. something that we weren't willing to. give before the war as a result of the. war. Right, and part of the tension. there is that President Trump also needs. to be able to save face and message to. the American public that he actually got. something out of this war and that what. he got was better than the deal that had. already been achieved under Obama to.

restrict and cap uranium enrichment in. Iran. So, both sides are dealing with. that face-saving impulse. Exactly, both. sides are dealing with that. President. Trump also needs to be able to say that. I achieved something from this very. unpopular war as well. Okay, let's talk. about the Strait of Hormuz, the. million-dollar question on everybody's. mind. Will things go back to normal in. the Strait or does Iran and its leaders.

now see this as theirs to control as. they see fit? Iran and its leaders view the Strait of. Hormuz as their territory. They've now. discovered that they can control it, that they can even threaten ships by. suggesting there are mines at the bottom. of the seas and of course insurance. companies are not going to risk it and. that alone will upend the global. shipping and energy and economy. So, they now have a tool in their disposal. and they're trying to figure out how to.

monetize it because they've calculated. that if they toll the ships that are. passing through the Strait of Hormuz, they can make a lot more money than they. do from their oil revenues. Oh, wow. So, even here you see their pragmatism at. work, looking for money-making. opportunities, calculating the best way. to do that. Farnaz, what about Israel? Because Israel's been this other major. factor that's been affecting the. negotiations. A potential Israeli attack. is part of what's keeping the Ayatollah.

in hiding and really affecting the way. the leadership works. Are the guards. assuming that Trump can keep Israel from. waging the kinds of attacks that we've. seen destabilize these negotiations? How do they view Israel in this? They view Israel as a major threat. that could still be a threat even after. conventional war is over. Iran and. Israel were engaged in a shadow war for.

many, many years that I've written about. with my colleague in Israel, Ronen. Bergman. Israel had assassinated. multiple Iranian nuclear scientists and. military commanders and done covert. operations and attacks on military sites. and nuclear sites. The threat of Israel. will be there and also the threat that. they might covertly try to assassinate. the supreme leader or any other. official. So, I think that they believe. that the United States has a lot of. influence and power over Israel and that.

once there's a ceasefire, it also. extends to Israel, but I don't think. there's a guarantee that Israel's going. to not continue the covert operations. Got it. So, essentially, Israel remains. this big wild card and the negotiations. are now stalled on the other sticking. points. But can I ask what is the ideal. realistic outcome of these negotiations. for the people leading Iran right now? That's a really good question and the.

answer might surprise you. I think the generals leading the. negotiations. are looking at a kind of a deal that. ends this limbo status they've been in. with the United States for 47 years. where Iran is not really at war with the. US, but there's this threat hanging over. it. They keep saying we want a grand. deal. We want to reach a big deal that. will be the end of hostilities and it. could sort of stabilize Iran if that. happens. Now, it's not clear whether.

that's going to happen or not. This is. sort of the ideal situation for them, that they have lasting peace, sanctions. are removed, American companies come in, investments come in and Iran can. stabilize economically as well as. politically. It's interesting, we did not get in Iran. the kind of regime change that President. Trump and his allies forecast and maybe. imagined would come of this war.

But just in terms of these negotiations, these peace talks, is the president right in some sense. when he says that there are now more. reasonable people in charge in Iran? Just in terms of reaching a deal? I think in some ways, yes. The president has said the war brought. regime change in Iran. There's clearly. not been a regime change. The Islamic Republic is still very. [music] entrenched and we still don't.

know how this new era of leadership is. going to evolve when things stabilize, when Mojtaba Khamenei comes out of. hiding, is he going to retain power, what that dynamic will be, if the. Revolutionary Guard get the money, how. they're going [music] to spend it, are. they going to rearm their proxies and. what the political repression in Iran is. going to look like. The situation is. very fluid, right? [music] And of. course, there's a risk that they're. going to overplay their hands using all.

the levers that they think they have in. negotiations. [music]. But on this very narrow question of. whether the people sitting across. [music] the table from the American. negotiating team are more motivated to. reach a deal, I think yes, [music] they are. >> [music]. >> Well, Farnaz, thank you so much. We really appreciate. it. Thank you so much for having me, Natalie.

>> [music]. [music]. [music]. >> We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. New information continued to emerge.

about Saturday's shooting at the White. House Correspondents Dinner in D.C. The incident started when a gunman. attempted to storm the annual event, where President Trump and senior cabinet. officials were in attendance. The attacker ran through a security. checkpoint and exchanged fire with the. authorities before being subdued and. taken [music] into custody. He was armed with knives, a shotgun, and.

a handgun. [music]. Our colleague Shawn McCreesh was there. as part of a pool of reporters covering. the president, and he witnessed [music]. the chaotic scene as it unfolded. We. were sort of milling about, looking for seats, trying to connect to. the Wi-Fi. I asked a young Secret. Service agent to take me to the. bathroom. A moment later, we were both in there. washing our hands, making chitchat, and. suddenly we heard all this yelling, all. this commotion, and he looked at me, his. eyes grew wide, and we both darted out.

of the bathroom, turned the corner, and. there were probably five or six agents. with guns drawn pointed right at our. chests like this. And in about 2. seconds, they sort of assessed that we. weren't a threat and then began yelling. at us to get down and to cross the hall, and we had no idea what we were walking. into. Inside the main ballroom, journalists. and other attendees hit the floor to. take cover, [music]. while Secret Service officers whisked.

away top Trump officials and their. spouses. [music]. One of the things that made it such a. crazy scene was that the people who were. running around the hallways with. basically machine guns were also wearing. tuxedos and suits because so many of the. agents were dressed up like party. guests. And so you really had no idea. what was going on because every which. way you looked, you didn't know, you. know, who had a gun, what was going on. Cabinet members were running across the. hall. It just felt like. total chaos.

>> [music]. >> About an hour later, back at the White. House, Trump addressed reporters, many. of whom were attendees at the gala. Nobody told me this was such a dangerous. business. profession. If Marco would have told me, maybe I wouldn't have run. Maybe I would. have said, "I'll take a pass." No, it's. a dangerous profession, but I don't view it that way. He said. he'd planned to deliver a scathing. speech at the event, but now he wanted.

to emphasize the need for national unity. and bipartisan healing. I was all set to. really rip it, and I said to my people, "This would be. the most inappropriate speech ever made. if I said what. So I have to save it. I don't know if I. could ever be as rough as I was going to. be tonight. I think I'm going to be. probably very nice. I'll be very boring. the next time, but He also said that the. shooting was another reason to build out. a larger ballroom in the East Wing of. the White House, which would have. stronger security measures built in. I.

didn't want to say this, but this is why. we have to have. all of the. attributes of what we're planning at the. White House. It's actually a larger. room, and it's a much more secure. It's. got. It's dome proof, it's bulletproof glass. We need the ballroom. That's why Secret. Service, that's why the military are. demanding it. >> [music]. >> The authorities have identified the. suspect in the attack as Cole Thomas. Allen, a 31-year-old from California.

In a note that law enforcement. attributed to the suspect, >> [music]. >> he said he was targeting administration. officials, and he conveyed deep anger at. the president without [music] mentioning. him by name. He's set to be arraigned in federal. court on Monday. >> [music]. >> Today's episode was produced by Mary. Wilson, Nina Feldman, Stella Tan, and. Michael Simon Johnson. It was edited by. Michael Benoist and Patricia Willens,

and contains music by Marion Lozano, Pat. McCusker, and Dan Powell. Our theme music is by Wonderly. This episode was engineered by Chris. Wood. [music]. That's it for The Daily. I'm Natalie. Kitroeff. See you tomorrow.