What Happens in Vegas Could Decide the Election

from The New York Times I'm Michael. babbaro this is the. daily for millions of Americans the. housing crisis defines the US economy in. the swing state of Nevada it could soon. Define the. election my colleagues politics reporter. Jenny Medina and daily producers Carlos. preo and CLA tennis traveled there to. understand what happens when the of the.

American dream slips. away it's Monday October. 21st so we are at the point of the. election where there are so few days. left that we're literally counting them. down and as we do that we are closing in. here on the show on the issues that. really seem to be driving and defining. the election in the key swing states.

that will ultimately determine whether. Donald Trump or KLA Harris wins the. White House and Jenny you have been. reporting out of Nevada so just to begin. with put that state into the broader. electoral picture for us so we're in a. coin flip election nationally and Nevada. really is a coin flip State at this. point either party could win by just the. slimmest of margins mhm and that's. interesting because Democrats have. really counted on Nevada for their wins.

for the last 20 years the last. Republican to win was George Bush in. 2004 and when Obama won in 2008 Nevada. was a major victory for. Democrats and has remained ever since. basically Democrats have never lost it. since' 04 right and a lot of Democrats. thought that that heralded this future. for them that they were the party of. diversity that they were the party of. the working class mhm and in a lot of.

ways no State epitomized that more than. Nevada where the overwhelming majority. of Voters do not have a college degree. there's a very large Hispanic population. and there's also a really significant. Asian and black. population and so for Democrats it's a. state that matters not only for its six. electoral votes but maybe even more so. for its. symbolism and it's also a place that. Democrats worry about every single cycle. because they keep eing out these winds.

but by an increasingly shrinking margin. okay and what does Nevada mean to. Republicans in this moment well I think. for Republicans it's a lot of the same. thing there is this symbolism that it. represents for them Trump has spent a. lot of time in Nevada both this year and. in the 2020 cycle and he has a lot of. devotees there and there's also this. idea that's been percolating and we've.

seen for four years now of trump making. inroads with working class voters who. are not white Trump did well with many. of these voters in 2020 and might do. even better this time around and so for. Trump if he wins this prize of Nevada. he'll be able to say look I am helping. us become the party of the working class. I am helping us become a more diverse. party you all criticize me for these. things that I say and accuse me of being.

racist but I'm actually getting more of. these voters who you thought were never. possible and based on the time that. you've spent there what is the animating. issue for voters in Nevada this year. without question the animating issue is. the economy this is a place that has. always had a lot of boom and bus Cycles. but Co completely obliterated the Las. Vegas economy it really hurt a lot of. people and we're still seeing the. effects of that and when we talk about. the economy now what voters say first is.

housing just how much it costs to live. there right that doesn't necessarily. surpris me because we talked so much on. the show about the Nationwide housing. Crunch and put simply it's that there is. not enough housing and the housing that. exists is too. expensive what exactly is the picture of. the housing problem in Vegas I tend to. think of it as a place actually with a. tremendous amount of housing right. traditionally Vegas has been exactly.

that the thing to know about Las Vegas. is that it was this sprawling place. where people flocked to for their little. slice of the American. dream it's really an exciting time for. all of us here in the valley because of. all those new developments especially. for home buyers you can even see with. this Dr it was a big expanse of desert. they were always new houses being built. Clark County coming in at number two on. the list of the hottest zip codes across. the country.

and people could afford those houses. without having a huge salary as long as. you get on the the right websites and. you find the right postings you can find. housing pretty much within a. week but during and after the pandemic. that really started to shift a home. buying frenzy happening now in Las Vegas. local reers say the pandemic has. dramatically changed the local housing. market you had a lot of people moving in. to Las Vegas it's it's a gorgeous area. everybody seems nice.

uh and it's a lot cheaper to live here. than California 150,000 people moved to. Nevada from California alone fascinating. housing prices in Las Vegas continue to. Skyrocket so you had rents going up. interest rates going up and all of the. sudden this place that was once. affordable started to feel just like. California like the very places people. were trying to. leave and just how expensive does. housing become in the state so when.

we're talking about the state what we're. really focusing on is Clark County Vegas. and all the surrounding suburbs 70% of. the population of Nevada lives in Clark. County we're just trying to talk to. people about their business and the. economy in Las Vegas do you mind if we. ask you a couple questions I've spent a. lot of time over the last year talking. with voters in Clark County. what and a couple of weeks ago I went. back with daily producers Carlos PTO and.

CLA tennis to hear from voters about. what the housing crisis has looked like. do you mind if we ask a couple questions. and what did you. find a two bedroom it is $1,200 a month. so just last year I was paying. 700 basically everybody that you talk. with will tell you a story about how. much their rent has. increased. wow and they'll explain that compared to. what they were paying in 2019 or even. 2021.

their rent has effectively doubled or. even tripled today do you remember what. your rent what they wanted to increase. it to almost three grand I think it had. been around 1,300 remember 5 years ago. you could rent a house a house for. 725 okay and now for 1,200 all you can. get is an. Studio people talk about signing. six-month leases and watching their rent. go up at least $100 every 6 months so. how much of your income goes to bails.

and and rent specifically basically all. of it literally all of. it people talk about looking for houses. for months or even years on end and not. being able to afford the down. payment everybody has that story of. housing woe actually when I got over. here I was very young so I was able to. work hard with my ex-husband and buy a.

and now it's like you can't do. [Music]. that so we ended up visiting somebody. who really typifies what a lot of people. are going through in Las Vegas who feels. like that dream of Las Vegas has not. materialized for him it has not been a. bridge to the middle class hi hello.

how are you Jenny nice to meet you how. are you good you so much his name is. Armando Garcia he's 26 years old and we. met him at the rental home he shares. with his partner two roommates and a few. pets we sat down in his living room. which is a very simple space there's not. a lot of decorations or furniture around. there's just a Dungeons and Dragons game. on the coffee table and remind me again. I know you told me but I can't recall. how much do you pay for rent here total.

the base rent is 2,000 and then water. and trash can fluctuate from like $200. to $400 and then electricity and gas we. pay separately from our rent and that. fluctuates even more and tell me a. little bit about how hard it is or isn't. to make rent it's been difficult uh. currently at my job I work $20 an hour. plus commission and my other roommates. also work like $16 an hour to $20 an.

hour uh one of them Works salary and. we're still like struggling to keep up. with our rent and he started telling us. about his life and this difficult. housing Saga he's been going. through my dad's from aapco and my mom's. from Mexico Armando's parents are both. from Mexico they moved to San Diego. where he was born my family moved to Las. Vegas in the summer of. 2005 my uncle was opening up a sandwich.

shop and he wanted my dad to help with. the business so we moved here and when. they first got there Armando remembers. it being a lot more difficult than his. parents had hoped or expected it would. be my dad was working as a cook and then. I remember my parents started cleaning. banks at night they worked multiple jobs. and they were also constantly struggling. to figure out how to pay the rent but. they kept encouraging him to try to do. what they couldn't and my parents were. like you should try to buy a house they.

kept saying even from the time he was a. teenager Armando buy a home buy a home. you can do it buy a home. [Music]. mhm and then eventually I moved out and. then he decides to move out of his. parents house and in with roommates and. then I started working at the call. center which was $16 an hour so it was. like he has what he describes as a. pretty decent paying job that was insane. and he feels like it's pretty stable I.

had the ability to make a savings and he. thinks he might be able to put enough. money away to actually be able to do. what his parents keep encouraging him to. do to buy a home. mhm but then Co happened but then the. pandemic comes a pizza delivery job and. he shuffles through a couple of jobs and. the apartment they increased the rent. every single month just and at the same. time his rent going up higher and higher.

each month and the bills feel further. and further Out Of Reach and then I had. to like use my credit cards more so that. I would have cash so he's living. paycheck to paycheck and racking up debt. so I got to the point where I was like. I'm not paying my credit cards I'm just. keeping the money that I have to pay for. food and rent because and this keeps. going on for a while pay for the credit. eventually he and his roommates move. from the apartment to a house to save a. little bit of money but he still barely. making ends.

[Music]. meet and then earlier this year things. change really quickly and a lot starts. to unravel we three of us had lost our. jobs and we all had to find jobs within. like two weeks he loses a job and is. without a paycheck for 2 weeks and for. him and for his roommates that's really. catastrophic they fell behind on rent. very quickly thing they took us to. eviction Court.

took them to eviction Court they come. back with an eviction order and so then. we kind of just had like a week and we. were just and they're all really. preparing to have to leave the home so. he put everything in. storage and it's really scary for them. he tried to comfort one of his roommates. who was just really freaked out and kind. of panicking thinking that she might be. either couch surfing or living in her. car I remember like every day for 2. weeks I had to like hold her while she. cried just she could not imagine what a.

future would look like where we were. homeless um and it ended up being where. I had to borrow $11,000 from my mom. $1,000 from my uncle to make 3 months of. rent for our they barely Escape eviction. and really the only way they managed to. do so is because Armando cobbles. together some small loans from two. different family members but Armando's. really shaking like he's gone from. thinking a few years ago go that it was. possible for him to buy a house to now.

realizing that he's in just as a. precarious position or an even more. precarious position than his parents. were ever in and to the degree that the. American dream has always been grounded. in this idea that you will do better. than your parents this has to be. exceptionally. disillusioning yes and that dream that. he had inherited from his parents of. buying a house has complet completely. vanished do you want to move out to your.

own place with your partner at some. point is that a. dream it'd be. nice but I think the dream of having my. own home is not a dream I've had since I. was 21 why not. cuz I think it just feels too bold to. have that dream I could dream and in the. dream hypothetically like we're stable. enough to own it but like what always.

kind of like dampens the Daydream is. that to me now it just feels unrealistic. it doesn't feel like I can like daydream. about it for very long because it just. feels like I have realism around me all. the. time and in a lot of ways his story. might sound extreme but it's really not. that unique we spoke to a local real. estate agent in Vegas who grew up there. and had seen all of this up close and he.

said that for most people who work in. Las Vegas without a college degree what. used to be attainable what used to be. very possible no longer is you just. can't get what your parents might have. been able to get 10 or 20 years ago mhm. this is what is infuriating many people. who live in Las Vegas and have lived. here for years there are people all over. Las Vegas and other parts of the country. who are really struggling with this. basic idea of making rent or finding a.

place to live for good even parents who. I speak with who own a home worry. constantly that their kids won't have a. place to live it's a really basic thing. that we often take for granted but that. many people are now struggling with more. than before and so for those people. they're looking at this presidential. election through the lens of a housing. crisis they're not worried about. anything else to the degree that they. are worried about finding a place to.

live comfortably and stably and so what. they want to know is how can you address. this are you going to do anything to. change my basic experience of Living in. America can you possibly restore my. faith in the American dream even because. I think when you don't have a stable. place to live it really shatters your. faith in that it really makes you. question what the government is doing.

and what kind of safety and stability. there is in this. country and that's a real challenge that. Donald Trump and KLA Harris face in. making their case to voters right now. they're trying to navigate this level of. frustration and distrust in two very. different ways. [Music].

we'll be right. back so Jenny given the Dynamics that. you just outlined how has the. presidential race the campaign played. out in Nevada so there is absolutely no. ignoring the presidential campaign in.

Nevada their bid nomics led to the. highest inflation in 40 years everywhere. you go any restaurant you're in where. there is a TV. [Music]. on you see an ad from one candidate or. another extremists are attacking. abortion rights taking away for they. them president Trump is for you there. are Billboards everywhere every radio. station we need Harris you're going to. be fed some sort of political Harris and.

I approve I'm Donald J Trump and I. approve this. message and the candidates have come in. and out of the state multiple times good. evening the battle hello Las Vegas hello. Las Vegas and every single time they. come they're there to talk about the. economy we had the greatest economy in. history and for Donald Trump he has. really hammered home the message that. this is Democrats fault people are.

saying to themselves were we better off. four years ago or are we better off now. and it wasn't even close that any. economic pain you are feeling is because. something that Democrats did or did not. do mhm we also need to build more. housing in America and Harris for her. part has been a little bit more specific. so we will cut the red tape and work. with the private sector to build 3. million new homes she has gone out there. and given speeches a couple of times.

talking about how much more housing. needs to be built provide firsttime home. buyers with. $25,000 down payment. assistance about tax credits and more. specific ideas of how she can try to. help change the situation so Harris is. more explicitly talking about housing in. a state where based on your reporting. housing is the driving issue is that. disparity in the two candidates focus on.

housing mattering and how are voters. generally responding to these two. competing messages so of course like in. every other state there are people who. are just viewing this in the same way. they always have in a partisan lens. there are the people who voted for Trump. and will stick with him again there are. people who voted for Biden and are. sticking with Harris but there's a small. group of people who are not really. tuning in to this until right now who.

are undecided and they are the people. who will matter the most on Election Day. right the coveted persuadable voter. absolutely the persuadable voter and in. Las Vegas that typically means a. non-college educated voter most likely. black or Latino and most likely living. paycheck to paycheck and after talking. to dozens of these voters in the last. several weeks I think about them is in. three different buckets and what are. those buckets the first group of those.

voters are people who describe. themselves as progressives who have been. longtime committed Democrats but now. feel like the party has abandoned them. and are considering voting for some kind. of third- party candidate by writing. somebody in and I think Armando who. couldn't afford his rent anymore he. describes himself in just that way are. you voting in this year's election I am. can I ask you about who you plan to vote. for and. why uh uh. it's difficult I'd like to vote for the.

green party armo says there's a tiny. chance he might change his mind and vote. for Harris like a 2%. chance if the election were today he. would write in Jill Stein or somebody. else and take a very ideologically. committed vote and sort of Hope for some. kind of political revolution so to speak. H these are voters who it seems are. ready to cast a protest vote against the. entire system democratic and Republican. and that's not really that surprising in.

Nevada remember this is where Bernie. Sanders won in the 2020 Democratic. caucus but it's also the smallest group. of these voters what is the second group. the second group is what you might think. of As Trump Turners these are mostly. people who voted for Obama in the past. but felt like his promises of Hope and. change and the Democratic promise of. hope and change has basically been empty. for them mhm there's a lot of the sense.

of what we face now is worse we are. worse off we're going in the wrong. direction and maybe we should just go. back to what we had under the Trump. Administration do you mind if I ask you. a couple questions that's okay but I. just speak too much English it's fine if. you want to tell me answer me in Spanish. that's fine too for example we met a. woman named Kenya who was selling herbal. supplements and she voted for Joe Biden. in 2020 but she's seen her family. struggle.

financially she says a lot of her family. members have been looking for a home for. a while and just can't afford to buy. one and she thinks look maybe Trump is. the better. businessman who can make her bottom line. feel. better then we went to a baseball field. where I had been just a month before and. at that time had spoken to a lot of. Voters who were undecided but this time.

I was surprised by how many people there. were very enthusiastically voting for. Trump I'm Trum I'm a trump supporter. what do you all like about him what do. you see he's a businessman you have to. run our country like a business so who. are you voting for in the fall uh. probably Trump I'm voting for Trump. everybody hates me when I say this but I. would personally vote for Trump yeah can. I ask you who you're voting for Trump. you're voting for Trump yes okay I. prefer Trump over what we have.

okay basically they want change and in. Trump's message of a broken system that. he says he will repair sounds like. they're finding that change right. exactly and Jenny what's the third group. of these persuadable voters so the third. group of Voters are kind of the most. interesting to me Ria can I ask you a. little bit about politics Will you vote. in November I won this time um I I. didn't plan on voting really to be. honest with you I don't think I will. vote you don't think you will vote and.

those are people who have voted in the. past or who at least think about voting. I'm tired of it all you know I'm just. burnt out but say this time they are. just not going to vote at all I am. Democrat the same garbage different. package Democrats and Republicans they. don't do nothing no more for us we met. those people at a SWAT meet we met them. at grocery stores um I feel like it no. matter who we vote for they going to. choose who they want to choose to be. honest that just happened and I've met. them again and again over months going.

to Nevada I just promise things I will. say it's not that I expect like to fix. the world like in one night or one day. but it's like I don't I don't see. anything I don't see nothing coming out. for us these are people who have voted. for Democrats in the past but feel like. the system just isn't working and just. don't see the point anymore just don't. feel like there's any reason to do what. they've done in the past and out is. their form of protest a different form.

of protest than Armando for example. right a different form of protest they. just feel frustrated and want to voice. this frustration is it fair to say that. you're not voting because you're. angry uh no I'm not angry I'm. disappointed I'm disappointed yeah angry. no I'm not angry I mean Jenny what. you're really describing here in all of. these encounters you had with voters in. Nevada is a profound cynicism. right and it feels deeply connected to.

their eroding economic circumstances. primarily housing but it sounds like not. just housing and by and large what. you're finding would seem to generally. cut against the. Democrats yes absolutely I think what I. have found over the last several months. in Nevada over this entire year is just. a really profound sense of cynicism that. is essentially defining the electorate.

there there is so much anger over the. economy and so much a feeling of broken. promises people feel very very. frustrated and very very hopeless and it. hurts people's day-to-day lives mhm what. they thought Vegas was supposed to mean. for them what Vegas meant to their. families what Vegas meant for the. possibilities all seems to have. evaporated and they lay that fairly or.

not at the feet of Democrats there's a. case to be made that rather than this. being a Biden Harris Democratic party. problem just based on the fact that they. are the incumbent. Administration that this cynicism is. something that Democrats are struggling. with and have been struggling with for a. really long time because the Democratic. party does see it itself as the party of.

institutional Solutions you know going. all the way back to the New Deal up. through Obamacare if you are a cynical. voter inclined to distrust the. government as the vehicle for solving. your problem then the Democratic brand. is one you're very likely to be wary of. it's a whole lot easier to run against. the system and who has better mounted a. campaign against the system than Donald. Trump right and I think it's important. to remember that many of these voters.

once believed in that system they really. believed that government in fact they. might still believe that government was. supposed to have a positive impact in. their lives but they don't feel like it. has that's the promise that they feel is. broken that's what's leading them to. their cynicism you say that government. is supposed to work for me and I don't. actually see that coming true you say. that government is supposed to improve. my life and my children's life and in. fact I feel like my children are going.

to be worse off than I am that sort of. overwhelming feeling of things aren't. going to get better things aren't. getting better and this sort of feeling. of giving up of thinking I keep trying. and trying and it's not getting better. so what do I have to lose by just. blowing up the system. mhm and in Nevada workingclass voters. voters without a college degree and.

Latino voters are some of the fastest. growing segments of Voters overall and. if those voters have become so cynical. that they decide to blow up the system. it could mean that Trump wins the. state and that's completely emblematic. of what we see going on nationally of. Latino voters voicing frustration over. the Democratic party of working class. voters voicing frustration over the. Democratic Party part of this feeling. that the American dream might be out of.

reach for people that once really had a. [Music]. possibility and if that cynicism becomes. a defining feature of this year's. election it will be a big part of what. could hand the White House to Donald. Trump well Jenny thank you very much. thank you. [Music].

we'll be right. back here's what else you need to. another day over the weekend any hope. that the death of hamas's leader might. help end the Region's War quickly. evaporated. in Israel a drone from Lebanon crashed.

near the private residence of Israel's. prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. raising the possibility that Hezbollah. sought to Target him in Lebanon Israel. claimed its air strikes had killed three. Hezbollah commanders and in Gaza. Palestinian authorities said that a. major Israeli air strike had killed or. wounded dozens of people. and North Carolina has become the second.

Battleground state to set a record on. the first day of early voting residents. of the state cast more than. 350,000 ballots on Thursday and another. 150,000 on Friday earlier last week. first day voting records were also. shattered in Georgia. [Music]. today's episode was produced by Carlos.

PRI CLA tennis gter and Rob zipco it was. edited by MJ Davis Lynn Ben Calhoun and. Brendan clink BG contains original music. by Marian Lozano aliciaa Ebe Pat. mccusker and Dan Powell and was. engineered by Alyssa Moxley our theme. music is by Jim brunberg and Ben lurk of. wonderl. [Music].

that's it for the daily I'm Michael. Babar see you tomorrow. [Music].