What Happens if America Turns Its Back on Its Allies in Europe

from The New York Times I'm Katherine. benold and this is the. daily over the past few weeks a growing. sense of alarm across Europe has turned. into outright panic over the future of. its security Ukrainian troops have. withdrawn from the key Eastern town of a. divka as Russia is advancing on the. battlefield in Ukraine Congressional. inaction has meant that Ukrainian forces. were outgunned they were outmanned and. they were ultimately forced to withdraw.

the US Congress has refused to pass. billions of dollars in new funding for. Ukraine's war effort NATO was busted. until I came along I said everybody's. going to pay they said well if we don't. pay are you still going to protect us I. said Absolut Donald Trump the leading. Republican presidential candidate has. warned European leaders that if they. don't pay their fair share towards NATO. no I would not protect you in fact I. would encourage them to do whatever the. hell they want you got to pay you got to.

pay he would encourage Russia to attack. them and condemnation is ringing out. tonight after news Russian opposition. leader Alexi navali has died Russia's. loudest voice of internal dissent Alexi. naali has died in prison make no mistake. Putin is responsible for naval's. death today my colleague Steven erlinger. on Europe's plans to defend itself. against Russia without the help of the.

[Music]. US it's Wednesday February. [Music]. 21st Steve you are conveniently for the. purposes of this conversation at a major. conference devoted to the security of. Europe which for a variety of reasons is. feeling very insecure at the moment. insecure because of what Donald Trump.

just said and because Russia seems to be. defeating Ukraine in some key battles. and so I'm curious what the mood has. been at this conference well the mood is. a little unmowed and. shaky this is a conference of security. people of officials diplomats but in a. way it's like a security analyst Tinder. you're always running into all kinds of. people and people who care desperately. about.

what Russia's doing what Ukraine's doing. what America's doing and the mood has. gotten panicky here so while we're. here navali dies which shook quite a lot. of people Russia made a serious advance. in Ukraine over the weekend they took a. town after many months of fighting. called aiva which was an important. Crossroads town and one had the.

feeling that with Aid to Ukraine stuck. in. Congress that of divka was just the. beginning of a Ukrainian. pullback and it's against that backdrop. that the comments from Donald Trump are. particularly worrying Donald Trump is. like this big Shadow over everything. nobody knows whether he's going to be. reelected or not but what he said about. NATO undermined the whole idea of the.

alliance which has kept the peace in. Europe since the end of World War II so. people are quite nervous about what he. said and that the transactional. unpredictable Donald Trump who seems to. govern from his stomach will somehow put. a big hole in the credibility of the. alliance just as Russia is increasing. its aggression against Ukraine and when. you say undermining potentially the. alliance you're essentially talking. about Article 5 of the NATO Charter.

yes and Article 5 is a key part of the. founding agreement of NATO. 1949 and it basically says that an. attack on one member should be. considered an attack on every member now. countries then have the right to decide. how to respond to that attack but the. idea is all for one and one for all that. if a little country's part of NATO is. attacked then all countries of NATO.

would come to its defense okay so Europe. depends on NATO for its security and. NATO depends on the credibility of the. article 5 guarantee from the US which. Trump is basically. undermining yes but then again we've. heard Trump make comments like these. before on NATO I mean he called NATO. obsolete when he was president so why. are these latest remarks Mak making such.

big waves well the first change from. before is there's a war in Europe now. not against a NATO member but there is a. serious land war in Europe by a Russia. that has invaded a neighboring country. and it has created fear that if Russia. succeeds in its efforts in Ukraine that. other former Soviet block countries that. are now part of NATO could be next.

particularly the Baltic Nations and. secondly there's obviously the prospect. that Donald Trump's going to be. president again so this really shakes. people up I mean Trump certainly isn't. the first American President to raise. this question of underwhelming European. spending on its own defense and it has. been true part of what he said is Europe. has been complacent.

since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Europeans have spent less and less money. on defense and they have relied on the. United States to protect them without. making a fair contribution to their own. security this was an issue under. Republican presidents under democratic. presidents Harry Truman first complained. about Europeans not spending enough on. their militaries but Trump was certainly. the most outspoken and the first to.

issue threats of a Kind it's interesting. so you kind of explained that one reason. Trump's comments have caused such a. panic here in Europe is that the. scenario of a Russian invasion is no. longer academic it's actually happening. and of course unlike the US Europe. shares a whole continent with Russia so. is arguably feeling that threat and that. risk much more. immediately how did Europe given this. geography allow itself to become become. so strategically dependent on the US how.

did we get here well it's a long story. of course I mean let's go back to the. end of World War II obviously and the. defeat of Nazi. Germany it became quickly clear that. Stalin and the Soviet Union intended to. keep the territories in Eastern Europe. it occupied and this became a big. ideological battle communism versus.

democracy and NATO was set up in. 1949 basically is's a cliche but it's. really true to keep the Russians out to. keep the Germans down and to keep the. Americans in because the United States. after World War I went home which some. people blame for allowing World War II. to actually. happen so this time the Americans stayed. at one point in the early 1950s the.

Europeans tried to create their own. defense Community but they couldn't. really get their act together and always. it was dependent in security terms on. the American military power and the. American nuclear umbrella and it seemed. to suit everybody just fine so in a. sense that European dependence on. America was baked in and even tolerated. if not even wanted by the Americans in.

those days yes and that's a very good. point because frankly it was in the. American interest to be honest for trade. reasons for Alliance reasons to have a. very powerful position inside Europe and. when you combined it with an aggressive. Soviet communism at the time it seemed. to serve everybody's interests including. America's national. [Music]. interest.

so this worked for quite a long time it. did and it kept the peace in Europe. which it really was intended to do but. as the cold war ends and the Soviet. Union falls apart for its own bad. structure I mean it was inevitably going. to fall apart suddenly the Europeans. think well the threat of war is over we. can relax we can have what came to be.

called the peace dividend we can stop. spending so much money on the military. because the idea of this broken Russia. invading the rest of Europe seemed. inconceivable so they stopped making. things like tanks and anti-tank weapons. and air defenses and they really cut way. back on the amount of money they were. spending and there was complet jcy even.

when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and. only 6 years later an nexted Crimea MH. so even at the same Munich security. conference two years ago on the eve of. the Russian invasion there was a strong. feeling even among Ukraine's president. volodimir zalinski that Russia would not. invade now the Americans and British. thought the Russians would invade but.

Ukraine would collapse very quickly the. Germans and French thought Putin. wouldn't be so stupid to invade at all. so everyone in a way was wrong and. Ukraine of course isn't actually a NATO. member it isn't and yet Ukraine was a. kind of Frontier land between Russia and. NATO and once Russia started a war a. real War it really shook people and that.

prompted the Biden. Administration and the European Union. and NATO to get their act together to. try to help Ukraine as best they could. to resist this Russian invasion so to. some degree NATO's help to Ukraine was. slow but it began to accelerate and no. one expected the war to go on this long. either and so now we're in a. difficult place where Ukraine is more on.

the defensive and NATO countries are. running out of stocks because they had. lived on the peace dividend they stopped. making Munitions they stopped making. missiles they're using up what they have. to give to Ukraine and there's very. little left to give so in a way two. myths have tumbled with Russia's. invasion of Ukraine the first is that. Russia does not go to war with Europe. European countries and the second myth.

is that Europe doesn't need to spend a. whole lot on its. military yes that's true and then. against this backdrop we also see the. United States publicly rethinking its. commitments partly because a new. generation in America is becoming a bit. more. [Music]. isolationist American funding for. Ukraine has been in political limit for. months and some people don't think it's.

actually going to happen I mean Donald. Trump isn't even president and there's. strong opposition in the Republican. party which seems devoted to him and to. his policies to anything that would. offend him and he is against more Aid to. Ukraine so it has become increasingly. clear that the Europeans have to start. figuring out how to live in a world. where support from the United States is.

less than it used to be it isn't. automatic and it may not be there at. [Music]. all we'll be right. back. so Steve Europe is really starting to.

contend with this idea that they need to. prepare for a future where the US steps. back from its role as the main guaran of. security on the continent and this is of. course happening in the middle of a war. so the most immediate concern presumably. for the Europeans is how to continue. supporting. Ukraine yes that's absolutely right. because no one wants Ukraine to fall no. one wants Putin to have a victory. because there's nothing like a victory.

to grow the appetite and they don't want. Russia to succeed so the most urgent. challenge is that Ukraine is going to. have a very difficult year because it is. already rationing its use of artillery. shells especially and there's very. little left to give to them this year. the Europeans for example have promised. to give Ukraine a million artillery. shells and they have barely come up with.

half that figure because the peace. dividend meant that Europe stopped. ordering this kind of ammunition which. meant companies stopped making it shut. down factories getting them open again. takes a long time it takes 2 or three. years to get an ammunition Factory going. but the fact is all these efforts should. have started two years ago and they did. not so the cupboards are bare quite. literally but what would a more.

strategically independent Europe a. Europe that sort of is responsible for. its own security actually look like well. there's always been this vision of a. European Army but the plan never gets. off the ground because Europe's not a. country to begin with and to send troops. into battle requires political. responsibility so who's going to be the. European political leader who everyone. in Europe agrees can order its own. citizens into battle just seems almost.

impossible to Think Through it's a. Federation of Independent countries and. it will never have that kind of. collective military right 27 countries. trying to agree on one. commander-in-chief never going to happen. it's never going to happen now there are. other ideas for a European NATO which is. an Alliance of European countries maybe. with less America possibly with know. America that would agree much like NATO.

does now on the best way to create. conventional deterrence for Europe which. could be done with a lot more money. being spent which nobody wants to do um. and some more sophisticated arms. Productions but the question will always. be how do you replace the American. nuclear deterrent that's a much harder. question so in conventional terms this. European Nao would be an organization.

where European countries kind of provide. the overwhelming majority of the detered. as in troops and weaponry yes but it. would also require Europeans to. understand that deterrence matters that. military spending matters and countries. would have to agree to spend probably 4%. of GDP or more on defense which is Cold. War levels which politically would be. very very unpopular but at the same time.

the Russian war in Ukraine has created. an enormous change and you have. intelligence agencies all over Western. Europe now publicly warning people about. a Russian threat that they never did. before and trying to get people to. prepare for a change in the way they. look at their own security that more. money needs to be spent. not just for other people but for.

themselves so ironically perhaps Trump. and the US Congress maybe have forced. this conversation that the Europeans. needed to have for a long time yes I. mean there's nothing like scaring people. to get them to do things Trump the US. Congress and of course the Russian. invasion of Ukraine all those things. have been important to force Europeans. to begin begin to understand that they.

need to do more about their own security. so we've spent this episode focusing on. Europe and the implications of a less. engaged America on the security of. Europe but what about the security of. America does it make sense for the US to. step back from the NATO alliance and. from Europe for that matter I mean Trump. is selling this as something that's in. America's interest but is it well this. will be one of the Great themes of the. American election I think because.

President Biden has argued and has. believed for a long time that America. benefits from its alliances around the. world not just in Europe but in Asia. elsewhere that it has friends that it. has trading partners and Mr Trump. believes that. alliances bind the United States that. they reduce America's power to do what. it wants to do in its own National.

interest so these are issues that. actually Americans will have to decide. upon where American interests lie and. the value of. alliances you know Steve as we've been. talking it actually sort of took me back. to Growing Up in Germany in the kind of. final years of the Cold War when war. with Russia was still a thing that.

people worried about so in some ways the. front lines of this new conflict seem. very familiar they do seem familiar and. they seem familiar in a very depressing. way what you have is a Russia that. clearly has decided that it doesn't want. to stay in the boundaries that were left. after its defeat in the Cold War so it's. a d dangerous time and we're also in a.

world that is much less clear than it. was during the Cold. War you have the rise of China you have. Iran being almost a nuclear State you. have disorder lots of. places it's not a neat world it's a. confusing. world and in the face of all that there. is the real. possibility that the United States. is.

retreating Steve thank you for coming on. the. show thank. [Music]. you tomorrow on the daily we'll look at. the Life and Legacy of Alexi navali the. Russian opposition leader and Putin. critic who died last week in. prison we'll be right. back.

here's what else you need to know today. on Tuesday the United States vetoed a. United Nation Security Council. resolution calling for an immediate. ceasefire in Gaza it is the third time. that Washington has blocked an effort by. the UN to put an immediate end to the. fighting the US is drafting its own. rival resolution that calls for a. temporary humanitarian ceasefire quote.

as soon as. practical and days before a Republican. presidential primary on her home turf in. South Carolina Nikki Haley fought back. against growing calls for her to drop. out of the race and endorse the front. runner former president Donald Trump I. feel no need to Kiss the. Ring Haley said that unlike so many. fellow Republicans she was not afraid of. Trump's anger or retribution and would.

remain in the race regardless of what. happens in the South Carolina primary. South Carolina will vote on Saturday but. on Sunday I'll still be running for. [Music]. president today's episode was produced. by Eric krupy and Olivia Nat with help. from Mo zadii it was edited by Mark. George and MJ Davis Lynn with help from. Devon t. contains original music by Maran Lozano.

and Alicia by E and was engineered by. Alysa Moxley our theme music is by Jim. brunberg and Ben lansberg of. [Music]. wly that's it for the daily I'm. Katherine benold see you. tomorrow. [Music].