Two Superpowers Across the Table

From the New York Times, [music] I'm. Rachel Abrams and this is The Daily. >> [music]. >> For the first time in nearly a decade, President Trump will meet with China's. [music] President Xi Jinping in Beijing. The meeting comes as Trump struggles to. extract himself [music] from the war. with Iran and must now face off against. China, the biggest threat to the US's. dominance on everything from technology. [music] to trade.

Today, my colleague David Sanger. explains what's likely to come of this. meeting and more pressingly, [music]. what will not. >> [music]. >> It's Wednesday, [music] May 13th. >> Hey guys, can you hear me? >> David, we can hear you. Where are you. right now?

>> Good, good, good. I'm uh. Uh I'm in my hotel in Beijing. I just arrived with several of my. Washington Bureau colleagues and we are. all preparing for the president arriving. for his first trip to China in the. second term. Uh he'll get in on. Wednesday night and meet Xi Jinping the. next morning and part of Friday before. he just turns around and goes right back. home. >> [snorts]. >> Okay, so now that you're.

>> Beijing. >> Can you set the scene for us a little. bit, David? Like what is the. significance of this meeting between. President Trump and Xi Jinping? >> Well, as initially conceived, Rachel, this was going to be the first of a. series of meetings this year in an. effort by the president to have. something of a rapprochement with the. Chinese after many, many years of. tension. Last time the president was here was. 2017 and it was a very different. situation.

The president was treated with all the. pageantry that the Chinese do very well. >> President Xi, I want to thank you for. that incredible welcoming ceremony. >> He had just been elected president to. the surprise of China and the world and. perhaps themselves. >> Today, I discussed with President Xi the. chronic imbalance in our relationship.

as it pertains to trade. >> He was just beginning to think about how. China correlated with his economic. policies and his defense policies. >> The United States is committed to. protecting the intellectual property of. our companies and providing a level. playing field. >> And was going to focus on China's rise. as a major power. >> In the coming months and years, I look. forward to building an even stronger. relationship. between our two countries, China.

and the United States of America. >> But this time, he arrives under the. cloud of the Iran conflict. You'll. remember he was supposed to come here in. April and put it off. And did so, I think, fairly convinced. that by mid-May Iran would have already. capitulated. And now, instead, he shows. up with Iran resisting,

with other world leaders, like. Chancellor Merkel of Germany, contending. that Iran has humiliated the United. States, and with the Chinese themselves. a bit mystified about why the US was. having such a hard time opening up a. body of waters such as the Strait of. Hormuz or defeating a kind of second or. third rate power in their mind like. Iran. And of course all summits are about.

optics and well, I'm sure there will be. all the pomp and ceremony that goes with. these. The fact of the matter is he. comes into this summit looking a bit. weakened. >> Okay, so I understand that Donald Trump. is walking into these meetings much. weaker than in 2017. But as for the. meeting itself, what do we know if. anything about what they're actually. going to be discussing? >> Well, we don't know a huge amount right. now, but the obvious in any summit that. involves President Trump is that you.

begin with the trade megalomaniac. relationships. And there is almost. always a series of big purchases by. China to be announced and potential. business deals and memorandums of. understanding some of which will come to. fruition and some of which will not. But. these are all below hanging fruit of the. relationship. I mean this is what Donald. Trump would do in any big summit.

meeting. And in some ways those may be. the easier of the issues to resolve. which isn't to say that any of them are. easy. >> Well, can we dive into that a little bit. more? Like when you say low hanging. fruit, trade, business, what are we. talking about exactly? >> Well, Rachel, this is Donald Trump and. his idea of a summit is to emerge with a. bunch of business deals even if they. don't fundamentally change the nature of. the relationship. And he set this one up. just that way. And so you'll hear a lot.

about the three B's: beef, beans, and. Boeing. >> Why beans, beef, and Boeing? >> Well, these are three big distinctly. American exports. The Chinese have. always bought American soybeans although. they think they're overpriced. They've. long been dependent on Boeing, although. now they're building some very good. aircraft of their own. And beef, well, they're trying to start up their own. beef industry as well, but they're still. buying some specialty American beef.

These are always the low-hanging fruit. of these summits because China needs to. buy some of this anyway, and the. president wants to be able to go out and. describe something that is an immediate. deliverable to the American people. >> Mhm. >> Right. The president doesn't need to fly. halfway across the world to negotiate. something that China was just going to. buy anyway. >> I'm sure that you will hear many. announcements and the president will. declare that these were the biggest. purchases ever, but they are. fundamentally commodities. And that's.

where the two countries do business most. easily. >> But, you know, one thing that I did not. hear you discuss in your discussion of. the three B's, David, was a pretty big T. that we've been talking about on the. show a lot, and that is tariffs. Where. does that fit into all of this? >> Well, obviously tariffs are a huge issue. for the Chinese. China's been a big. target of Trump's tariff regime, and I'm. sure that it will dominate a lot of the. discussion.

But, the fact of the matter is the. Chinese were able to get President Trump. to back down some last year when in. retaliation they cut off rare earths and. magnets and so forth to the US to. demonstrate that they too have a bit of. leverage here. And then came the Supreme. Court decision, which forced the US to. pay back some of the tariffs that have. already been collected. And now a trade. court decision is going after President.

Trump's ability to impose a 10% tariff. on every country. So, I think that Xi. Jinping probably feels like he's already. won half of his argument before he. starts. Now, there are some tariffs on specific. Chinese products that certainly are a. big concern to them. And here the. biggest example is Chinese cars. You know, the Chinese during the. president's first term exported about a.

million cars a year. And this past year they've exported. around the world 7 million. except to the United States where they. were barred chiefly by Joe Biden who put. a 100% tariff on Chinese cars and that's. a big source of complaint on the part of. the Chinese. >> Okay, so China is going to want to push. to get these cars into the US. Do we. expect a deal? >> No. Uh we do not because I think everybody.

recognizes that China's car production. capacity is posing a considerable threat. to the American car makers just as Japan. did decades ago. >> [music]. >> But I think what's worth remembering. here, Rachel, is. these are the immediate trade tensions. [music] that take place between. countries all the time with our. adversaries, with our allies. But what's frustrating sometimes around.

these summit meetings is that we all. know there are much more fundamental. divides between the two countries. Divides that go to the heart of the. question of who will be the dominant. economic power, the dominant military. power, [music]. the dominant technological power for the. next number of decades. And it's not clear whether any of those. core issues in the relationship will.

come up at least [music] in direct form. >> [music]. >> We'll be right back. >> So David, talk to us about those. fundamental divides that are both at the. heart of the battle for dominance. between these two countries and also. potentially unlikely to come up in the. meeting this week.

>> Well, it's no secret that for the past. 10 years. the US and China have been engaged in. what sometimes looks like a bit of a. death struggle, right? Xi Jinping has. made no secret of the fact that by 2049. he wants China to be the number one. military. economic. political and perhaps even cultural. power in the world. And the question of.

how the United States is going to deal. with the rise of essentially a peer. competitor the only country that can. deal with us across the board in those. areas. is the fundamental question. >> Mhm. >> And you're seeing in summits like this. that this plays out in arguments about. all kinds of specific issues. But the overall question. is how do you deal with a country that's.

trying to displace you as the world's. number one power? >> What are some of those issues, David? Walk us through those. >> We'll start with nuclear weapons. China had under Mao and for many decades. after a minimum nuclear deterrent. It. kept 100-200 nuclear weapons, just. enough to deter others from striking it. But when Xi came in. he almost immediately began a huge.

build-up that the United States didn't. really become fully aware of. until years later. And today, it has about 600 nuclear. weapons. But, the Pentagon estimates. that China will have about 1,000 nuclear. weapons by uh 2030, and will match the. US and Russia by about 2035. And why is this critical? Because just a. few months ago, as we've discussed on.

The Daily before, the last remaining. arms control treaty between Russia and. the United States expired. And President. Trump, I think rightly, said, "It. doesn't make sense to negotiate a new. one unless China's part of that. agreement." And the Chinese, so far, have said outright they have no interest. in arms control or even discussing it. until they have an arsenal the size of. ours, that they wouldn't put themselves.

in that kind of disadvantageous. negotiating position. So, President. Trump said to us in January, in our. lengthy interview with him, that he. plans to bring up nuclear arms control. issues with President Xi. I don't think it's going to get very. far. The Chinese just aren't ready to. discuss it. What they are ready to discuss is Taiwan. and Taiwan's right to exist. >> And what specifically about Taiwan do. you anticipate coming up in this. meeting?

>> Well, Xi Jinping would like to do. anything he can to show that the United. States is becoming more open to the. thought that China, over time, would. take over Taiwan. He doesn't expect an invitation for them. to do so. What he's looking for are some. small wording changes that might make. the Taiwanese more doubtful that the US. would come to their aid. >> Wording changes like.

>> Well, the simplest one that is described most. often is that American officials usually. say that they would not support Taiwan. declaring its own independence. But what the Chinese want to do is move. that word to oppose. Sounds like a small change. In fact, it's got big diplomatic significance to. it because opposes means that we would. take a specific view that.

the only true China is. the People's Republic and that we would. oppose any effort to go challenge that. >> Right. The words themselves might seem. like not that big of a deal, but in. effect, they are huge deal. diplomatically. >> Right. And we just don't know how this. is going to turn out. One of his aides. told reporters in a briefing over the. weekend that he expected no change in.

the American position. But that's only true if the president. doesn't freelance. And of course, we know. he is bound to freelance. >> Which I can imagine is exactly what. China's hoping for. >> Yes, but what's really interesting is. that Taiwan is one of the few topics. that when you raise it with President. Trump. he refuses to get fully engaged. >> It seems like there are a couple reasons. why you might think that Taiwan would be.

higher up on the president's priority. list, so to speak. Like one thing we. haven't mentioned yet, of course, is the. technology, the chips that are related. to AI that Taiwan is a big producer of. For that alone, you'd think that perhaps. the president would be very keen to. discuss Taiwan. >> Or as he recognizes that the United. States needs the output of Taiwan. Semiconductor Corporation, the world's. most advanced semiconductor maker. Its.

facilities are overwhelmingly in Taiwan. And of course, the AI chips that are at. the core of the artificial intelligence. revolution. Now, this could play both. ways. You could imagine Xi Jinping. saying, "You know, I know how to deal. with Donald Trump. I just guarantee him. that he's getting his chips if he just. doesn't care about the rest of the. island.". >> I think for myself, and probably for a. lot of other people, AI, perhaps more.

than many of these other issues on the. table, feels really front of mind. This technology, it feels like it is. racing out in front of our security, maybe even our understanding of it. And. so, are we imagining that we will see. any kind of real action on this front. from these two leaders at the meeting. this week? >> Well, usually we found that these. discussions between world leaders are. pretty limited and pretty superficial. During the Biden administration, it took.

months to negotiate a simple line or two. between the US and China in which the. two countries agreed never to allow. their nuclear weapons to be directed by. artificial intelligence programs. So, seemed like a pretty basic thing. Let's. keep human beings running our nukes. But. the idea was to build on that and try to. get some common understandings about not. letting artificial intelligence make.

life and death decisions when it comes. to autonomous weapons. And so, there's. sort of an understanding that we need a. new form of arms control, but that. everything that we did in the nuclear. age doesn't apply very well in the AI. age because it's not as if these are. specific weapons that you can easily. inspect or count or keep control of. So, these would largely be codes of conduct.

and very hard to enforce. And it'll be interesting to see if the. two leaders even touch on this topic or. or even willing to send their aids off. to discuss it. >> Obviously, both the US and China are in. this race to win the AI battle. And. maybe because of that, they don't want. to do anything that would restrict their. growth. But David, doesn't it feel like they. each have at least some kind of vested. interest in putting some kind of. guardrails around the other one? >> You would think that would be pretty.

obvious to both countries that they do. need guardrails, but you'll remember. that the Trump administration came into. power. saying one country is going to win this. race and it's going to be whichever. country allows industry to do its thing. unfettered. We're not going to bog down. the industry with a lot of rules early. on. That attitude has changed just in recent. weeks. And what's changed it has been.

the arrival of Mythos. This Anthropic [clears throat]. version of its main artificial. intelligence product, which it declined. to release to the public because it is. so effective at conducting offensive. cyber attacks. It can search out and. find. almost instantly vulnerabilities in the. code of utility grids or other. infrastructure. and then order up an attack. Now, it can.

also be useful for defending that. infrastructure. The Chinese are worried. about Mythos themselves, but presumably, they are working on very similar kinds. of large language models and it's. probably only 6 months, 8 months, maybe. a year away before they have a mythos of. their own. That should deeply worry the. administration. And I think one of the. concerns that many American China. experts have right now is that the top.

officials of the Trump administration. have been so distracted by what's. happened in the Middle East. that they're coming into this a bit. ill-prepared. >> Well, let's talk about that. How does. the war in Iran fit into all of this? >> This is not the conditions for the. summit that President Trump envisioned. When he put off this meeting by about 6. weeks, he assumed that by that time the. war would be over, the Iranians would. have capitulated, and the Strait of.

Hormuz would be open. None of those three things are the case. >> So, are you saying that you think the. war is likely to maybe take up more. oxygen than some of the other super. pressing topics that you've described to. us like nuclear weapons, AI, etc.? >> I think we're going to see or maybe hear. about second-hand a lot of conversations. surrounding the reopening of the strait. and the ending of this conflict.

The Chinese clearly want to get the. strait opened without having to go. intervene themselves and they probably. don't have the power to intervene very. much. They get about 30% or more of their oil. and gas. moving through the Strait of Hormuz. So, the Chinese have a huge economic. interest in getting this resolved. especially because their own economy. wasn't doing so wonderfully before the.

war in Iran and this increase in energy. prices is killing a lot of Chinese. enterprises. But for the Chinese, it's a little more. complicated than just that. President. Trump will undoubtedly ask them to stop. supplying target data and technology to. the Iranians. Technology the Iranians. need for their missiles, for their.

interceptors, and for generally pursuing a war. The United States also wants China to. use its influence with Iran, since it is. such a big purchaser of Iranian goods, to get the Iranians to open up the. strait. And it'll be really interesting to see. whether President Xi, who is very. cautious, but has a strong interest in. seeing the war end, might actually quietly intervene on the.

US's behalf with Iran. >> You know, David, you said at the. beginning of this conversation that. these summits are often about a. demonstration of strength back home. And that at this summit in particular, it does not seem like there's going to. be much headway made on some of the. thorniest and most urgent issues of our. time. So, I wonder what you think will feel. like a win to both of these men at the. end of the day. >> Well, I guess the question is what feels. like a win and what they can sell as a. win. For President Trump, I think it's.

pretty clear. He always wants to emerge from these. with a bunch of business deals and. announce that that was indeed his goal. out here as dealmaker-in-chief. But as we discussed, that doesn't get at. some of the fundamental questions, including whether the Chinese, after. Iran, view the United States as not. quite as invincible as perhaps some. leaders thought it they may be.

>> [music]. >> For President Xi, it's something of a. longer game. >> [music]. >> He isn't particularly interested in the. individual deals that come out if they. help grease the wheels of diplomacy, that's fine. But President Xi may want to demonstrate. that he in fact is running the more. stable power right now. That it is not invading other countries. or following the law of the jungle as he. said the other day.

that veiled swipe [music] at President. Trump. And that over time the world will depend. on Chinese power, [music]. Chinese capital. to rebuild and to establish new trading. relationships. >> [music]. >> around the world. I think that's his long-term plan. and I think he may doubt whether the. United States has a long-term plan of. its own. >> [music].

[music]. >> David, thank you so much for making the. time and hope you have an easy trip. >> Thank you, Rachel. It'll be interesting. [music]. >> We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. [music]. Dr. Manny Macari, the commissioner of.

the Food and Drug Administration, resigned on Tuesday after weeks of. pressure and rumors that President Trump. was planning to fire him. Dr. Macari ultimately left over concerns. [music] about the administration's. decision to authorize fruit-flavored. e-cigarettes, which he opposed, according to people familiar with the. matter. And [music]. Kash Patel, the FBI director, sparred. with Senator Chris Van Hollen of. Maryland at a budget hearing over his. conduct, [music]. including whether he ordered polygraphs. of FBI employees to find leakers, and a.

report that claimed that he drank. excessively. >> [music]. >> in a way that affected his work. Patel, who has denied the report about. excessive drinking and sued the. publication, accused Van Holland [music]. of drinking with Kilmar Abrego Garcia, an immigrant who the Trump. administration mistakenly sent to a. prison [music] in El Salvador. Today's episode was [music] produced by. Jessica Chung, Shannon Lin, Adrian. Hurst, and Anna Foley.

It was edited by Devon Taylor [music]. with help from Page Cowett, and contains. music by Chelsea Danielle and Marion. Lozano. Our theme music is [music] by Wonderly. This episode was engineered by Alyssa. Moxley. >> [music]. >> That's it for The [music] Daily. I'm. Rachel Abrams. See you tomorrow. >> [music].