Two Blue States That Will Determine Control of Congress

from The New York Times I'm Michael Boro. this is the. [Music]. daily there's never been any doubt that. this year's presidential race would be. won or lost in a handful of purple swing. states where neither party has a clear. advantage that however is not the case. for. congress today my colleague Nick fandos.

on why control of the house is likely to. hinge on what happens in two deeply blue. states where Democrats run the. show it's Tuesday October. [Music]. 15th Nick thank you for making time for. us on a holiday no less Michael I am.

very pleased to be here so I feel like. if you're keeping count I dare say we. have made 100 episodes that's an. exaggeration but a lot of episodes about. the presidential race but we have spent. comparatively little time talking about. who's going to control Congress and. today with you we are going to rectify. that and in particular we're going to. talk about control of the House of. Representatives the lower chamber so set. the stage for us and walk us through the.

stakes of this year's races for the. house yeah let me make a case for why. the House of Representatives is uniquely. important in this election so obviously. as we all know the race for the White. House is incredibly close but the race. for the Senate is really tipping towards. Republicans right now Democrats have a. shot but it's an outside shot to keep. control of the Senate so the House of. Representatives is really kind of the. second most important question because. if Donald Trump wins the White House and. Republic an have the Senate the house.

being Republican would be a trifecta it. would unlock his ability to implement. most of his policy agenda it protect him. from investigation or impeachment and. really kind of lay the groundwork for. two years of Conservative Republican. policy making on the other hand if kamla. Harris wins the White House and doesn't. have control of the Senate the house is. really going to be her only leverage. point on Capitol Hill right it's going. to be the kind of democratic Beach head. to help her try and get anything.

accomplished but it is so close this. year that there's a feasible possibility. that actually Trump could win the White. House and Democrats could keep control. of the house which would be a very. powerful potent check on a potential. Trump presidency remember they impeached. him twice before when he was in office. right in other words no matter what. happens no matter who wins the White. House the house becomes the Lynch pin. for either Unified Government or divided. government very very consequential.

either way precisely and even before. that happens the house is going to play. a very important role in the kind of end. stages of this presidential election it. is as we all learned in 2021 the body. that has to certify at the end the. results of the presidential election. right and last time Donald Trump and his. allies in the house were able to make a. remarkable run at trying to disrupt that. process despite the fact that Democrats.

were in control of the house so one can. imagine a scenario where this time. around if Republicans narrowly hold on. to it and the presidential election ends. up being a near tie or another contested. outcome who is in control on Capitol. Hill could be unbelievably important I. just want to make sure I understand that. because I think the timing can get. confusing for people we think of. Congress being sworn in around the time. of the presidential inauguration. actually happens before so a new.

Congress will be required to certify the. results of the election you're saying if. Republicans win control of the House of. Representatives and kamla Harris were to. win the presidential race then suddenly. you're looking at a republican. controlled house that may try to block. her certification as president which. would once again plunge this country. into a very complicated and potentially. very dark place I think that that's a.

good summary and certainly a question. and a scenario that's on a lot of. people's minds right now right so what. Nick is the current understanding of. both parties chances of winning control. of the house right now you explained. when it comes to the Senate that the. odds are very much that Republicans will. flip it when control now walk us through. the odds in the house yeah the house is. a true tossup it is on a knife's edge. Republicans right now effectively have a. four seat majority basically the.

narrowest majority in a century and. they're out there defending it and. there's a very limited number of. competitive seats across the country. because of Jerry mandering and both. parties which have Shrunk the map a few. dozen seats that could tip either way. and an even smaller number of that that. may affect the final outcome but the. really interesting feature of the race. for the house this year is that the true. battlegrounds don't match up with the.

presidential race we're not talking. about Wisconsin or Pennsylvania there. are some races there but the biggest. clusters are actually in two large. Coastal Blue States New York and. California and why would that be well. let me just give a sense of numbers. first which I think will help illustrate. this there are 17 seats that Republicans. hold right now that President Biden won. four years ago of those 10 of them are. in New York and California and five or.

six of them Biden actually won by double. digits so to put it a different way. Republicans in 2020 and 2022 were able. to win a set of districts to build their. majority that you know by registration. or makeup tend to tilt Democratic or. vote for democrats for president and so. that means that Democrats clearest path. to winning back the majority runs. through those two states H what do we. need to remember about those r two years.

ago that helps explain this Dynamic and. how we got here in these two deep blue. States so just to rewind the clock a. little bit remember you know 2022 was. Biden's first midterm typically the. party out of power Republicans are. expected to make a bunch of gains across. the country in the House Republicans. were expecting to pick up a pretty big. majority and by and large they had an. underwhelming night in most of the. country except for New York and.

California and there are different. reasons for that New York and California. as anyone who has visited there or lives. there knows are very expensive places. and so they're extra sensitive to. inflation and food and housing and. basically put voters into a very sour. mood at the same time the pandemic. brought this disruption to life all. across the board and a spiking crime in. some places and it was really intensely. felt for instance in New York where a.

daily drum beat of crimes on the subway. or violent crimes on the street became. kind of the dominant issue of the. midterm campaigns and Republicans were. able to really effectively message on. this issue and I think that the thing. that unifies these states is that. they're both states where Democrats have. total control of government where voters. are looking at these problems which many. places are facing across the country but. they have one party basically that's in. charge that they can blame Democrats.

control mayor's offices the governor's. mansions and the white house so you know. why wouldn't you if you're fed up about. these issues and you think that. government is not doing enough to help. well you know you go against the guys in. power and that meant going with. Republicans right so in that sense. Republicans weaponized New York and. California's bless and used it against. them very effectively through the issue. especially of crime precisely and there. was another issue with that bless that.

actually hurt Democrats that's a little. different so across the country abortion. rights were one of the biggest rallying. cries for Democratic candidates in the. midterms and they actually had a lot of. success in swing states where voters. perceived their abortion rights to be at. risk after the Supreme Court had. overturned roie Wade but in New York and. California I think voters were a little. bit more dubious about that they knew. that Democratic super majorities in. Sacramento and Albany were not about to.

overturn abortion rights and so the. issue just wasn't quite as potent in. motivating Democratic voters to come out. in the same kind of numbers that. Republicans who were concerned about. cost of living and crime and. Independence were to come out and vote. against them and so by the time election. Night comes around now it was a bumpy. night on Long Island for Democrats one. we start seeing these districts from. Long Island up through the suburbs of. Westchester and the Hudson Valley start. flipping towards Republicans one by one.

there was good reason for Republicans to. cheer at their watch party in Nassau. County on Election night they just. turned blue districts red and in. California a number of seats that. Democrats thought Republicans had no. business representing that they'd won in. 2020 they start holding those races each. one of them tips towards Republicans. California's 27th District this win for. Republicans is the.

218th seat Republicans have now secured. a majority in the House of. Representatives and at the end of the. night it all adds up to be enough for. Republicans to hate the House. [Music]. Majority right and the question is is. that going to happen again this year on. Election Day are Republicans going to be. able to motivate especially these. Suburban voters on anxieties around cost.

and crime and will Democrats fail to. motivate their Suburban voters in these. same districts around essential. Democratic motivating issues like. abortion that could well determine as it. did two years ago who controls the house. this year I think that is the most. pertinent question because Democrats. feel that they have learned a lot of. lessons from 2022 their candidates are. better funded they're running more Adept.

campaigns targeting more voters they're. not taking these districts for granted. and most importantly they are. aggressively messaging on a lot of the. issues that voters still say they care. about crime cost of living immigration. has really creeped up and the result I. think is an election where on paper at. least Democrats have a lot of really. good pickup opportunities it looks like. they should have a clean path back to. the majority but in reality po after. poll is showing these races within the.

margin of error that they could flip in. either. direction and as I'm thinking about all. these things there's one District in. particular in the suburbs just north of. New York City where a lot of these. issues are coming into play the. possibility for Democrats of winning. back the house but also the reality for. Republicans of having a strong set of. issues and candidates to defend their. ground on and the outcome of that race. which could come relatively early on. Election night is probably going to tell.

us a lot about which way the whole house. is. [Music]. tipping we'll be right back. [Music].

Nick take us inside of this New York. house race that you have been tracking. pretty closely so this is New York 17th. District it's just up the Hudson River. from New York City it's kind of an. interesting and complicated District so. a lot of it is the northern suburbs of. Westchester County which on balance are. really pretty affluent this is the Home. in chapaqua for instance of Bill and. Hillary Clinton they're kind of. sprawling country estate and there's. multi-million dollar houses is all up.

and down the Hudson but at the same time. just across the river there's. communities in Rockland County that are. more exurban more working class retired. or active cops and firefighters and. their families that tend to be a more. Traditional Swing District if you add it. all up this has been real friendly to. Democrats in the past Biden won this. District by 10 points something like. 880,000 more registered Democrats than. Republicans MH but 2022 in the midterms.

this Republican assemblyman named Mike. Lawler kind of comes out of nowhere and. ends up defeating one of the most. powerful Democrats in Congress for this. seat he harnesses a lot of the issues. that we've been talking about and takes. down this guy sha Patrick Maloney who. was not only defending his own seed but. was the head of house Democrats campaign. arm responsible for defending the. majority. Nationwide right Lawler doesn't take out. just any Democrat he takes out a kind of.

democratic lion who's supposed to. protect the rest of house Democrats. exactly and he does it through some. really Adept messaging taking each of. these issues that we've been talking. about and deploying them in very. specific ways the best example of this. is around crime so in New York the crime. issue was really kind of localized and. intensified around the issue of cash or. cashless bail right Democrats in New. York with good intentions of trying to. get rid of the. practice had pretty dramatically changed.

New York's bail laws in recent years. today we are pleased to bring you a. debate among all four candidates running. Lawler had an old clip that turned out. to be really valuable of his opponent. Sean Patrick Maloney uh do you believe. in ending cash bail Mr Maloney. absolutely and I'd make it a top. priority saying on a debate stage I. support getting rid of cashless baale. now the legacy of cashless baale is. complicated but in this moment remember. where crime has kind of bubbled up after.

the pandemic it's a really easy. scapegoat for Republicans to point to. and say this is the reason this is the. cause is this guy serious Shawn Maloney. said his top priority was releasing. dangerous criminals so they can commit. more crimes that's nuts and Democrats. didn't quite know how to respond to this. they tried defending the law they tried. changing the subject and on Election Day. it turns out that a lot of Voters were. very Atri and very worked up about it.

and Lawler wins by just the tiniest of. margins a few thousand votes to become. uh the Republican congressman and a kind. of instant celebrity by Dent of beating. the national house Democratic chairman. and what kind of Congressman does Lawler. turn out to be given the Dynamics of. this District he knows he's just won it. by hair yeah so Lawler knows from day. one that he's going to have to defend. this seat in two years so he spends a. lot of time from the very beginning.

reaching out to groups that you wouldn't. expect a republican to talk to it is. critical in this day and age to have. strong Republican support for labor he. courts labor unions he courts. independent and Democratic leaning. moderates when House Republicans ousted. Kevin McCarthy Lawler was like. unmissable on CNN for weeks talking. about how stupid his party was how. idiotic it was and control all of that.

work all of that important work has now. been upended uh by these eight selfish. people uh who joined up with the squad. to frankly upend the institution of the. house and create a constitutional crisis. not the kind of thing you would expect. somebody to normally do right right and. it's good to be. back at one point as Washington is. headed towards a Deb default President. Biden actually travels to Lawler's own. District to try and put pressure on him.

to strike a debt limit deal generation. Republican Congress Mike Lawler's here. as well Mike's on the other team but you. know what Mike is the kind of guy that. when uh when I was in the Congress they. were the kind of Republican I was used. to dealing with and he ends up. complimenting the guy he's not one of. these magga Republicans he says like. this is the kind of guy that I can work. with he's not like the rest of his party. I don't want to get him in trouble by. saying anything nice about. him or naked about him but I thanks for. coming Mike thanks for being here this. is the way we used to do it all the.

time he was trying to establish this. independent brand that like yeah there's. an R behind my name but like I'm willing. to vote across the aisle I'm willing to. criticize my own party he presents. himself in all this as kind of the. adults in the room H it's time we work. together to get our country moving again. and leave the games to the. kids so all of this I think is important. because Lawler knows heading into the. next election that he's not not going to. have the element of surprise this time.

the environment may be different it may. not he's going to need some democratic. and independent voters to stick with him. and maybe come over to his side if he's. going to win a second. term okay so Lawler proves very deaft at. being the kind of. Republican that this District can. Embrace perhaps twice in a row talk. about who he is facing on the Democratic. side in this year's house right. his Democratic opponent is mandere Jones.

I was lucky to grow up in Rockland. County Jones is a former one-term. Democratic congressman who lost his seat. after redistricting in 2022 but he's got. a lot of strengths as a candidate raised. by a young single mom who liked so many. incredible women throughout this. District still had to work multiple jobs. to make ends meet he's got this. remarkable biography like really an. American Dream story my grandfather was. a janitor and my grandmother CL homes he.

grew up poor he ended up at Harvard Law. School became a lawyer worked in. government and then won a seat in. Congress growing up I didn't see people. like me in Congress then I was elected. to represent the same people whose homes. I washed my grandmother clean it was the. kind of guy who looked like you know he. could make Mike Lawler a one-term. congressman mhm but Jones also has some. real baggage because when he ran the. first time he ran ran as just an out. andout Progressive this was in 2020 it.

was after George Floyd was murdered it. was in the middle of the pandemic he was. for at the time defunding the police you. know he was really against a lot of the. Trump era border and immigration. policies and he staked his tent with the. left and with progressives which at the. time was quite convenient and now has. turned out to be a real heavy weight. around his neck H I'm going to guess. that Lawler is pointing to all of those. old policy positions and statements in.

this year's race exactly so just like he. was able to use old clips of Shawn. Patrick Maloney to remarkable effect to. hurt him he's turning to you know old. statements that Jones made that in many. cases he now rebukes he says he was. wrong about to fund the police he's. advocating for more aggressive border. policies this time around but the. problem is you know when voters TVs are. being saturated with all these old clips. liberal mandere Jones want to defund the. police need the in mass incarceration.

and and and defund the police defunding. the police cutting that funding and. reallocating it to social workers and. ads from Mike Lawler that try and. portrayed Jones as more accountable to. AOC Andrea kazio Cortez then to the. voters of this District the pride of New. York right now M Jones that's AOC. praising M Jones because Jones supports. your radical agenda it undermines some. of what Jones is trying to do to look. more pragmatic and that's what he feels.

he needs to do to win this District so. Lawler is very much trying to make this. year's race a carbon copy of the race. two years ago where it becomes a. referendum on whether Democrats are too. Progressive on criminal justice policy. and therefore not basically hard enough. on crime and he's got some ammunition. there in mandere Jones's record yeah.

that's right the issues may be a little. different than 2022 but the pattern is. basically the same I'm the adult in the. room I'm the reasonable one I may not be. the party you're used to but I'm going. to be much more responsible actor in. Washington for you than these crazy out. of touch. Democrats and how Nick is mandere Jones. framing this race yeah so Jones is. running his own very aggressive campaign. here and he is maybe unsurprisingly. focused on the issue of abortion Lawler.

empowers the worst people in Washington. their platform would ban abortions even. here in New York without exception for. rape or incest so we have Democrats. think this time around actually it's a. more potent issue because there's a. presidential election at the top of the. ticket the Spectre of potentially a. National Abortion ban they think will. really motivate their voters even in. these Democratic states Congressman Mike. Lawler always votes against abortion so. we have to stop this guy so he is trying. to take Lawler's record on this specific.

issue and show that it exposes him as. kind of a fraud generally that he may. say he's a moderate but at the end of. the day he mostly votes with his own. party right he's saying Joe Biden might. have praised him but he's anti-abortion. exactly so all this has meant a very. close and contentious race for months. there's been some surprises some of them. brought by you yourself indeed earlier. this month I got a hold of some. photographs of Lawler when he was a. college student in the early 2000s uh.

dressing up for Halloween and blackface. he was a Michael Jackson superan he. still is he even went out as an. 18-year-old to Michael Jackson's. criminal trial in California to attend. it but obviously the imagery of. blackface is very charged and very. offensive right but it's unclear how. much of an electoral impact this is. going to have in the end Lawler really. didn't run away from it he went right. into it what did he say for me uh there. was no ill intent there was no effort to.

malign or uh make fun of or disparage uh. Black Americans he went on CNN and said. look I'm aware of the history of what. blackface is that's not what I was. trying to do here uh it was really uh an. effort to pay homage to somebody who was. a musical Idol for me uh I've always. loved Michael Jackson's music and his uh. dance moves Jones for his part calls on. Lawler to drop out of the race and. resign from his SE Mike Lawler knew.

exactly what he was doing and he's not. having his apology or explanation at all. he says you know exactly what you were. doing and is only upset because he got. caught doing it and not because he. actually engaged in offensive behavior. and you don't really seem that. sorry and so that brings us more or less. to the present where Lawler has. maintained a narrow lead in the polls. it's narrow enough that on Election Day. this race could tip in either direction. M you know that I think is indicative.

going back to this broader story about. the climate in a state like New York or. California of just how. surprisingly close each of these races. are Nick we're spending all this time. talking about the particular dynamics of. this District New York 17 and the two. candidates who are running for this seat. but I'm curious how the Dynamics of the. presidential race between Donald Trump. and kamla Harris are like to affect. turnout in this district and voters.

attitudes about the two candidates yeah. it's such an interesting one because. obviously the presidential candidates. are not really spending any time in a. district like this and in New York. they're not really spending money here. but they are driving the kind of. national mood around the election for. instance you know Democrats like Jones I. think were really heartened when Joe. Biden dropped out and KLA Harris got in. because they saw the energy from their. base the engagement the number of. volunteers te ready to sign up for them. just like Skyrocket and I think.

generally their theory of the case has. been that in a presidential election. year turnout is much higher than a. midterm both parties tend to turn out. with enthusiasm and at the end of the. day it's a democratic district and if. everybody turns out the Democrat wins. now the interesting thing about that I. think is that there's a Republican. theory that Trump is actually becoming. somewhat more palatable or at least less. offensive in districts like these over. time can you explain that we've been.

seeing in National polling that Trump is. actually improving most in States like. New York and California blue states that. he's never going to win but where voters. may be looking at his economic policies. or his presidency with some Nostalgia. and saying you know he's not quite as. bad as we thought or not as dangerous as. we thought or you know I still don't. like him but look what the Democrats. have reaped in terms of inflation and. crime and all these other issues. and this matters in these districts.

again not because it will affects. Trump's outcome but if comma Harris is. winning Mike Lawler's District by five. points instead of the 10 that Biden. wanted by it's a lot easier for a Lawler. to run ahead of the Republican ticket. and still be able to win so I think one. of the questions I'm really interested. in as we head into election day is. actually how Trump performs in all these. districts because it's going to give us. the answer whether 2022 was just an. aberration in places like New York and.

California or if you know some of these. Suburban exurban places that swung away. from the Republicans during the kind of. early to mid Trump era are now swinging. back in a way that is going to make them. more competitive for years to come. you're raising the possibility which I'm. sure Democrats are very loath to. contemplate that Republicans have been. developing in the Trump era a structure. advantage in these Blue State swing.

districts yeah I don't know that I would. go as far as to say an advantage but. they have been eating into and eroding. Democrats Advantage the advantage that. they had and getting it back towards. more kind of neutral competitive. territory and the question in this. election is whether they can lock that. in and in doing so open up possibilities. for themselves not just this November. but in November to.

come but it's not a feda compa Harris. and mandere Jones like they get this. they're trying to communicate to voters. that we have heard you and if they can. successfully convince them that they. have that they feel their economic pain. that they understand you know some of. the policies of the past are not the. direction that voters want to go in then. they could flip the script and buy. themselves two more years to continue to. change the Democratic image in the way. that they want want to and potentially.

reverse some of this swing back towards. the Republicans in ways that could be. just as meaningful and. Lasting well Nick thank you very much we. appreciate it you are welcome as always. Michael thank. [Music]. you we'll be right back.

here's what else you need to Notre day. the times reports that Russia has. recaptured several Villages inside its. own borders that Ukraine had invaded. over the summer that could threaten. Ukraine's plan to use those Russian. towns as leverage in negotiations to end. the war Ukraine still holds roughly 300. Square mil of Russian territory but.

that's down from about 400 square mil. that Ukraine occupied in the first week. of its Invasion back in. August and and here we. go 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1. ignition and lift off on Monday NASA. launched its first mission to Jupiter in.

more than a decade this time the. objective is not to investigate the. planet itself but instead one of its. moons called Europa L and heavy with. Europa Clipper unveiling the mysteries. of an enormous ocean lurking beneath the. icy crust of Jupiter's moon. Europa the5 billion Mission will study. whether Europa Jupiter fourth largest. moon possesses conditions favorable for.

[Music]. Life today's episode was produced by. Eric krupky and mu zi it was edited by. Michael benois contains original music. by Maran Lozano and Diane Wong and was. engineered by Chris Wood our theme music. is by Jim brunberg and Ben Lanford of. [Music].

[Music]. wonderl that's it for the daily I'm. Michael Boro see you tomorrow. [Music].