Trump Weighs War With Iran

From The New York Times, >> [music]. >> I'm Rachel Abrams and this is The Daily. >> [music]. >> For weeks, the United States has been. building up an enormous military. presence around Iran, even as negotiators from both [music]. countries plan to meet later this week. in the hopes of finding a diplomatic. off-ramp to the escalating tensions. Now, >> [music]. >> as President Trump signals a potential. attack, our colleague David Sanger.

explains what [music] the president. hopes to achieve through military action. and why he's chosen [music] this moment. It's Tuesday, February [music] 24th. David Sanger, welcome back to The Daily. Rachel, great to be with you. The last time we talked about Iran on.

the show, we were in the middle of this. brutal crackdown on anti-government. protesters who were protesting the. regime. And at the time, there was a huge. question about whether the United States. would take some kind of military action. That obviously did not happen, but in. the weeks since, we have seen this. massive military build-up in the region. So, David, can you just start by. describing what that build-up looks like. and what we understand about what. exactly is going on in this moment? Well, Rachel, the build-up is the.

largest we've seen in the Middle East. since the run-up to the war in Iraq in. 2003. Wow. There are two aircraft. carriers in the region, the Abraham. Lincoln and the Gerald R. Ford, which. has come back from Venezuela. There are fighter jets, refueling. capability, bombers, they are all taking up. positions from Jordan all through our. bases in the region. And meanwhile, there's the last gasp of.

a diplomatic track underway. On. Thursday, we expect that the Iranians. will be meeting with the two main. American negotiators, uh Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, to. present a package that might satisfy. President Trump's demands. But the. president has made clear. that he is thinking of everything from a. limited strike on Iran to what could be. a much larger military action that could.

take days or weeks. You mentioned that the president has. made demands. What are those demands. exactly? Like, what does the United. States want right now, and what are they. trying to achieve either through these. talks or through any kind of potential. military action? You know, there's a bit of a murkiness. on this issue. Usually, when presidents. get to a situation like this, they're pretty clear about what it is. they are seeking.

But in this case, the president has not. been clear. >> [music]. >> The president's offered a dizzying array. of rationales for the military action. that we may see. Donald Trump is urging. Iranians to keep protesting, saying If. Iran shoots and violently kills peaceful. protesters, which is their custom, the. United States of America will come to. their rescue. He's talked about supporting the. protesters, of course. We talked about. Hamas, and we talked about disarmament.

He's talked about cutting off support. for the proxies, like Hezbollah and. Hamas. There's nothing that would do. more good for this part of the world. than for Iran's leaders to renounce. terror, stop threatening their. neighbors, quit funding their. militant proxies, and He's talked about. taking out Iran's missile capability, the missiles that can reach Israel. These are all conventional weapons, but. they pose a big threat to a major.

American ally. And then of course, there's the one big. reason he keeps returning to. You can't. have peace in the Middle East if they. have a nuclear weapon. And uh they can't have a nuclear weapon. >> [music]. >> And that is going after the remnants of. Iran's nuclear portfolio. I hope they're. not trying to build up again because if. they [music] are, we're going to have no. choice but very quickly to eradicate. that build-up. The nuclear portfolio, we should. mention, which the president had.

previously claimed that the US had wiped. out back in the summer. That's right, Rachel. And you know, just. to wind back the clock for a moment, you. may remember that in June there was a. 12-day war that the Israelis initiated. against Iran. Right. >> And that it ended with a US attack on. the three major nuclear enrichment sites. that Iran has built up over the decades. And these were three sites that only the. US Air Force had the capability with.

bunker busters to get down deep enough. to try to destroy. And in the course of doing that, they. ended up burying under the rubble. Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium. that was enriched to a purity just shy. of what you would need to make a nuclear. weapon. And just to be clear, after the US conducted that whole. campaign, what would be left now to hit. through some kind of military action?

Well, there are still targets. There are. places where the Iranians have made. nuclear centrifuges, the machines that. spin at at supersonic speeds and produce. uranium. You could wipe out some of. those targets. David, the last time that the United. States took a military action against. Iran, it was in close coordination with. Israel, which is obviously our biggest. ally in the region. They have grave. concerns about Iran's nuclear and. missile programs. What do we know about Israel's.

involvement this time around? Well, we know that Prime Minister. Benjamin Netanyahu has been talking. frequently to President Trump. He came. for a visit about 2 weeks ago and what. little leaked out from that session. indicated that the Israeli government. was quite concerned that the US wasn't. paying enough attention to the missiles. And it's the missiles that can reach. Israel. that actually pierced the missile. defenses last time and struck some.

civilian targets and killed some. Israelis. And you know, at the same time, the. president has got some people in his. ear, including Iran hardliners in. Congress, saying, "You will never have. an opportunity like you've got right. now. That Iran and Ayatollah Khamenei have. never been weaker. Mhm. They're. economically on the ropes. There are. protests in the streets. People are sick of their government and.

the repression surrounding it. And that after the war in June, they. have never fully recovered militarily. Just take the moment to push them over. the cliff. So, the president may have in the back. of his mind a great desire to seize the. moment. But at the same time, this is risky business. This is a country of 90 million people.

They have considerable ability not only. to strike back with missiles, but with a terror network that runs. throughout Europe and to some degree has. shown some capability to operate inside. the United States. They've got significant cyber. capabilities as well. So, it's hardly. guaranteed that this is going to be a a. like one night attack like you saw in. June when they went after the nuclear. sites. It's very possible that the Iranians.

could respond, the US then escalates, the Iranians then escalate, and you're into a bigger conflict than. anyone wants to see happen. in the Middle East. Okay, so it sounds. like there are a lot of people in the. president's ear right now. There's. Netanyahu, there are the Iran hawks in. Congress. But, one thing that I think has been. very top of mind, at least since the. protests in January, is regime change. and how a lot of these goals that you. mentioned that the administration could. be considering right now could lead to.

that depending on what kind of military. action they take. Is that part of the. calculation here? We have to assume that it's one of the. biggest parts of the calculation. But, the fact of the matter is the. president has stopped just short of. that. And when the topic came up with. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in some. Senate testimony last month, he said, "Well, this would be big and. complicated and we'd have to give a lot. of thought to what that would look. like." Well, a little late to come to.

the conclusion we have to think that. through. The fact of the matter is the. government of the United States has been. thinking about regime change in Iran for. decades. Right. So, there are a couple. of big questions here, Rachel. The first is, can you bring about regime change with. an air campaign? It's not clear at all. that that's necessarily going to work. Second, if it does work, what's the. assurance that the government that would. come in would be any friendlier to the.

United States? It could just be another repressive. regime. And the other risk, of course, is that this could just escalate. >> [music]. >> into a much larger regional conflict. Which would be entirely understandable. if the Iranians decided that the regime. was at risk and they were going to throw. everything into the retaliation.

>> [music]. >> We'll be right back. David, when we think about a potential. military strike in Iran and what that. might mean for regime change, I am, of. course, reminded about the recent action. that the US took in Venezuela when it. removed the president, Nicolas Maduro. My sense is at least that that really. caused other countries to sit up a. little straighter in the face of US. pressure. And so, I wonder whether that. is coming into play here at all with how.

the US is interacting with Iran in this. moment. Well, Rachel, I think it's definitely. part of the calculation. I mean, first. of all, there is a just overall. similarity to the gunboat diplomacy. here, right? You mass a naval fleet off. the coast, you issue a set of demands, and if the demands are not met, you then. use that military force. to compel the country to change the way.

you want it to change. Mhm. But there's. also a real difference here as well. Because in Venezuela, it was a very. targeted operation. They were aiming for. one guy, Maduro. And when they pulled him out of there. and sent him off to the Brooklyn. Detention Center, they left the rest of. his government fully in place. In Iran, however, it seems very unlikely that that model. would work.

First of all, it's a much larger. country. It's 90 million people. Second, it's a lot more complex. It's a. lot better armed. It's got air defenses. that Maduro never had. It's got a. population that may go along with the. removal of the government, but also has. bitter memories of CIA efforts to bring. about coups in Iran in the 1950s. And finally, if the US was successful,

it's not clear that you could leave the. existing government in place the way. they have in Venezuela. You'd have to. take out that entire structure run by. the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. You'd have to eliminate almost all of. those loyalists to Ayatollah Khamenei. So, it's not clear that you would have. someone in place to go run the country. and to respond to those American. demands. Okay, so given the fact that a military.

action would be extremely complicated in. Iran, what would a more {quote} limited strike. look like that the United States is. actually considering? It's a good question, cuz there are all. kinds of targets. They could go after the Basij, which is. the local militia groups that have been. used to put down the protesters. Mhm. That way at least the president could. say he's making good on his commitment.

They could go after the Islamic. Revolutionary Guard Corps. And you may. remember that back in 2020, in his first. term, President Trump ordered a drone. strike on the head of the Quds Force, the most elite part of the Iranian. military, and managed to kill him. So, you could imagine more attacks on. the leadership of the IRGC. You could imagine attacks that were just.

limited to those missiles and missile. sites. and the launchers that Israel's most. worried about. But all of those would gain mostly a. tactical advantage. Mhm. If the. government didn't change, the military. leaders will get replaced. Eventually, Iran will. build more missiles or buy them. So, the real question is, are you just. mowing the lawn or are you bringing. about real change? How concerned is Iran about all of this.

or any of this? Well, Rachel, the Iranians have made it. pretty clear they're deeply concerned. I. mean, first of all, we've seen them. burying and reinforcing some. nuclear-related sites or suspected. nuclear-related sites that hadn't been. hit back in June. Second, they've moved. a good number of their missiles and. other arms to the borders where they. could more easily reach American bases. or Israel to make the point that they're.

going to get some shots off if they get. attacked. Thirdly, there's the strange action by Ayatollah. Khamenei, who is 86 years old and presumably has. some succession plans anyway, but as we've reported in the Times, he's deepened those in recent times. So, the supreme leader is clearly aware that. the US may be going for regime change. and he wants an insurance policy against.

that. These are all the kind of preparations. we've not really seen the Iranians take. at this level before. At the same time though, of course, there are these diplomatic talks. What kind of off-ramp, if any, is being. considered right now so that we do not. see this kind of escalation? Well, the talks have been stymied a bit. by. the problem that the US is demanding. that there is no uranium enrichment. In.

other words, that Iran get completely. out of the business of making any. nuclear fuel. And there's an interesting idea that's. been floated, which is to allow the. Iranians to have a very limited. enrichment capability, purely for. medical and medical research-related. purposes. It's got a nice humanitarian. tone to it. It would be basically. allowing the Iranians to produce fuel. for a small research reactor that's been. in Tehran since 1967, when in one of.

those great ironies of history, the. United States gave the reactor to the. Shah of Iran. Mhm. >> [clears throat]. >> And it's used mostly for production of. pharmaceuticals. It's useful for cancer. treatments and so forth. And this would allow the Iranians to. say, "We're still enriching." And allow. the United States to say, "We've stopped. all their nuclear weapons activity.". But it's not clear the Iranians will. give up that much capability. And it's.

not clear that President Trump. would accept any continued enrichment of. any kind for any purpose. Given all of that, David, is it possible. that the military build-up that we've. seen is not necessarily. an alternative to diplomacy, but. actually something that the president is. using to sort of strengthen his hand. diplomatically? Like, could he be using. this threat of the military action as. leverage to push for a diplomatic.

solution at the talks later this week? It's very possible. That's the diplomacy. part of gunboat diplomacy. Of course, the flip side of that, Rachel, is if you have spent hundreds of. millions, if not billions of dollars, assembling a huge force off a country's. coast, the temptation to go use that. is extraordinarily high. And if his real goal here is regime. change, then he may not really be that.

interested in a diplomatic solution, because a diplomatic solution would, if. anything, bolster the existing regime. It would. remain in place. Just to take a step back here, the United States has viewed Iran as a. threat for many, many years. So, on the. one hand, it makes sense that it would continue to. be a priority. But, on the other hand, during the. second Trump administration, the United. States has really kind of laid out this.

worldview of spheres of influence, which. we've talked about a lot on the show. The idea that the great powers can carve. up the world and consider sections of it. to be under their own purview. We've seen from the US side that that. has meant the Western Hemisphere. So, I wonder where you feel like the. Middle East fits into that worldview. Rachel, you're exactly right. This does. not fit comfortably into the president's.

national security strategy that came out. in November. On the one hand, as you suggest, American presidents have been pushing. back. on Iran and the Iranian nuclear program. for decades, ever since the Iran hostage crisis, right? Which came right after the. Iranian revolution in 1979. The United States has sabotaged the. Iranian nuclear program over the years.

It's mounted some of the most. sophisticated cyber attacks in history. against Iran's nuclear infrastructure. So, there's always been a consistent. effort to push back the day when Iran. could get a nuclear weapon. And if you. view it that way, then President Trump. in what he's doing today is escalating. and expanding what has been a. long-running American policy across. Democratic and Republican. administrations.

But, if you view it in the context of. his national security strategy, well, Iran isn't exactly in the Western. Hemisphere, right? And so, he may just. be seeing a moment to deal with a. long-time adversary. that is going through a period of. remarkable military, economic, and. political weakness. And I think that's really what's. happening here. It's not as if the Iranians are in a.

position right now to attack us. Right? Their nuclear program has been. buried. Their economy is at a point of. near collapse. [music]. They are not about to go out of their. way to pick a conflict with the US. [music]. Instead, the President might be engaging. in what legal and diplomatic historians. call a preventive war. A war where we are strong, our adversary.

is weak, and so we're going to hit them. now because we've got a good chance. That is in international just war theory. considered to be an illegal use of. force. That may not stop the President. >> [music]. >> The President may believe that he'll go. down in history as the one who solved. America's long-running conflict with. Iran that goes back to 1979.

But, if the President decides to take. military action in the next few days or. weeks, I suspect that historians will look back. at this moment. as a war of choice, not a war of necessity. >> [music]. >> David Sanger, thank you so much, [music]. as always. Thanks, Rachel. Great to be with you. >> [music].

>> We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. >> [music]. >> Mexican authorities appear to have. restored order in multiple cities after. the killing of a major cartel leader set. off a wave of violence that left at. least 62 [music] people dead. Mexico's most powerful criminal. organization, the Jalisco New Generation. Cartel, unleashed the chaos after its. leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes,

[music]. or El Mencho, died in a military raid on. Sunday in western Jalisco state. [music]. And. British police arrested the former. [music] ambassador to the United States, Peter Mandelson, following accusations. that he had passed on confidential. information to the sex offender Jeffrey. Epstein. The move comes just days after the. arrest of Andrew [music]. Mountbatten-Windsor, formerly Prince Andrew, on suspicion of. the same offense, and months [music].

after Mandelson was fired once the. extent of his friendship with Epstein. was revealed. Today's episode [music] was produced by. Carlos Prieto, Nina Feldman, and Claire. Tennisgetter. It was edited by Maria Byrne and Mark. George. Contains music by Marion Lozano, Alicia. Baeyens, [music]. and Rowan Nemirow. And was engineered by Chris Wood. Special thanks [music] to Eric Schmitt. and Mark Mazzetti. >> [music].

>> That's it for the daily. I'm Rachel. Abrams. See you tomorrow.