Trump’s Domination and the Battle for No. 2 in Iowa

from New York Times I'm Michael babbaro. this is the. daily on Monday night the 2024. presidential race officially began with. the Iowa Caucasus where the real drama. was the fight for second. place today Reed Epstein takes us inside. one of the caucuses and Shane gold marer. walks us through the final. results it's Tuesday January.

16th ladies and gentlemen Reed. Epstein hello Michael nice to see you Mr. caucus himself is that what I'm being. called Mr that's what I saw yeah that's. what I saw on the internet so Reed I. want to set the scene for listeners it's. 4:35 p.m. here in De Mo and in about 2. and 1 half hours Republicans across Iowa. are going to caucus and we are going to.

join them but before we do that we want. you to describe what that's actually. going to look like because the last time. we did this and we did it with you four. years ago we focused on the Democratic. caucus because it was a competitive. caucus Donald Trump was the president at. the time so the Republican caucus wasn't. really the source of much interest. that's reversed this time around we are. most interested in the Republican caucus. so tell us what the Republican caucus is. actually going to look like so four.

years ago when we went to a democratic. caucus we went to a high school gym and. we watched as the supporters for each. candidates group themselves in different. parts of the gymnasium and the. candidates that didn't have enough. people in their group those people were. released to go support someone else and. so there was a lot of jostling and. persuasion and arm twisting and physical. wooing in that room there was yelling. and speeches from across the room we're. not going to see any of that kind of.

stuff tonight the Republican caucus is. much simpler they will come to these. spaces the one that we're going to go to. is in a high school gym and they will. hear speeches from representatives of. the different candidates and then. they'll mark on a piece of paper that. they were handed when they came in which. candidate they support and those pieces. of paper will go in a. box and then at the end of the evening. the people who are running the precinct. will take all the paper and put them out. on a table and any anybody who's there.

who wants to watch the counting can we. can watch so just in summary the. Republican caucus it's less dramatic. it's less physical than the Democratic. one it's a little bit more resembling a. traditional vote but still very unique. with an Iowa twist because it's not just. you going into a private booth and. voting that's right okay talk to us. before we head out about where the drama. where the suspense really is tonight and. where it is not well where where it is.

not is who's going to finish first. everybody in Iowa all the polls have. landed on the position that Donald Trump. is going to win the Iowa caucuses. tonight and what everyone is looking for. is who finishes second is it Nikki Haley. who has made a late charge in Iowa or. will it be Ronda santis who for months. has staked his entire campaign on doing. well in Iowa and Reed we gave you the. assignment to pick a caucus location for. us to go to tonight and I'm I'm guessing. that you picked a place that is Central.

to the who comes into second place. question all right we're going to go to. a caucus at Van Meter High School uh in. Van Meter Iowa it's a suburb about a. half hour west of downtown De Moine and. it's a place that's on the edge of rural. Iowa where Donald Trump has run very. strong but also is in commuting distance. of De Moine and should have a lot of. professional class uh voters who are the. type of people that Ronda santus and. Nikki Haley have been targeting got it. so Van Meter is a kind of suburb where. voters are interested we think in a.

trump alternative therefore a good place. to assess this question of Haley versus. to santis if they're not interested in a. trump alternative in a place like this. then those two are in real big trouble. okay so we should head off to Van Meter. are you going to drive I'm going to. drive yeah you don't even do you have a. rental car I do but I want you to drive. you're more practiced in the. snow um yeah I'm I'm very happy to drive. I'm very excited to have may be our.

guide let's. [Music]. go is I'm looking at my phone it says. minus two it says that it's minus 2° out. and that it feels likeus. 21 I mean a lot has been made of how. cold it is and that it is all merited I. think the the cold has not been. underhyped I think the thing they don't. talk about enough is the mechanics of. the cold and the way I EXP experience is.

is that basically the mucus in your nose. freezes freezes I wanted to say that in. the in the times this week that it's so. cold that the boogers in your nose. freeze and I was told that standards. would not approve so maybe we can get. that on the daily it's true we. go turn the heated seats. up do you have the directions directions. are in okay you want me to turn some. music on listen do you remember 4 years. ago we listened to one day more from lay.

Miz and we had a big singalong but that. was really about the cumulation of many. many months of covering the Iowa. caucuses one day I think this year the a. mountain goat song is probably a little. more appropriate but why is it the right. song for the M you'll hear when you hear. the. lyrics I didn't that's what happens with. the directions well turn the directions. off then hear the music going to make it. through this year if it kills me.

that's. [Music]. right snow CL just not flowing snow. though I get I get it. now well. done I do prefer Taylor Swift we can. play her next good song really good song. okay we're pulling in we are pulling. into the school you should park right. here.

icy okay all right let's go we're. walking. in so we just described this gymnasium. that we have now entered so it looks. like you know a million other High. School gymnasiums you on one end is the. basketball scoreboard.

on the other end is the track and field. records for the high school and in terms. of the caucus right like this place has. been a little bit remade for voting. tonight right there's a handful of. tables set up there's a table where the. votes will be counted they have uh some. grocery bags to to rece receive the. ballots one of them in black Magic. Marker has the word ballots written on. it uh and people are trickling in you go. ahead and sign right there for me sir.

know uh should we go talk to some. RS I think I have what is your caucus. plan tonight um I really think that Dan. santis can beat Joe Biden um I just I. like everything about him I'm asking for. people to consider my candidate tonight. former Ambassador and future Madame. President Nikki Haley uh it would be. hard for me to consider Nikki Haley or. Ronda sis when they're so low in the. polls who are you going to talk uh. probably Trump cuz Trump's going to win.

anyway I agree with President Trump yeah. that's who I'm here for too um Donald. Trump I'm real happy with uh how the. country used to be and I think he's the. strongest guy not a Nikki fan um I do. like Ronda santz a lot just don't feel. like he can. win anybody but Trump sorry I haven't. made up my mind yet all right well we're. going to start caucusing apparently. thank you.

all right I think we're ready to get. started here we'll call up our first uh. candidate. speaker looks like uh maybe Ronda. santis hello my name is Jackie Abram and. I am caucusing for Ronda santis whether. I like it or not chaos follows Donald. Trump he will spend the next nine months. in and out of court and he will spend. Millions on legal fees Ron can and will. get the job done I want a president who. can bring people together not tear them. apart I want someone that people will.

follow I want someone that wants to. fight for the job shows up for the. debates right defends their record Micki. has done that time and time again thank. you uh my name is Joel aers I van and I. here to. caucus Reed can you just explain what. just happened so while uh speaker was. urging caucus goers here to back Nikki. Haley the AP called the race for Donald. Trump the earliest it's ever called I. caucus race meaning the race is over in.

this room before it's even begun Trump. winning was really not a surprise some. Farmers have already extremely early and. got enough information forever used for. their land amazing but many farmers have. not. agreed okay so at this point please go. ahead and do your. votes it's. 7:52 people are taking their ballots. folding them up I assume that sack was.

EMP people are now placing their ballots. in that paper bag one by one by one by. one you didn't see them go like. that cucumbers and paneles tell us what. you're doing we are sorting the ballots. and then we will count them. scientifically dumped out the paper bag. and now we're sorting them by name once. we get them sorted by name and make sure. the ballots are correct um you know not. two names on them y then we'll count. them up then we'll double count them and. then we'll have the totals say like this. is a Dan santis pile that's a trump pile.

that's a Haley pile and that's the not. yet counted pile right in the middle. yeah counting uh got it thank you R the. the. sist that was I'll. take coming in third place with 64 votes. was Nikki. Haley coming in second place where yeah. second place with 79 votes was Ronda.

santis coming in first place with 85. votes was Donald. Trump so Donald Trump won the the Van. Meter spot her site uh caucus tonight so. thank you very much for. everybody. y so Trump won here but not by that much. Trump won here it looks like he got a.

little over a third of the vote um which. may mean something we'll get a better. sense of really what how this fits into. the rest of the Iowa results in a couple. hours when we have numbers from across. the state right all right so ready to go. home I think we're ready to I think. we're ready to go back and see what. happened across the state yep let's go. back to the. hotel.

[Music]. we'll be right. back hey Shane hello come on in we have. acquired a conference room for you this. is fantastic our own private another. windowless room to spend my time another. windowless room but this one to talk. about.

results yeah you ready I'm ready okay we. should just establish where we are in. the night it is 11:15 p.m. local time. 12:15 a.m. back in New York and we now. have all the results of the caucuses. across the state so talk us through the. final numbers uh first of all I'm very. pleased that it is only 11:15 local time. this is civiliz earlier than we had. expected a few hours ago and I think the. reason we are here so early relatively.

is just because the the results are. pretty clear which is that Donald Trump. he has 51% of the vote right now Ronda. santis is in a very distant second at. 21% and Nikki Haley is in third place at. 19% and in fact since the I began the. person in fourth F ramaswami who was. under 8% dropped out and immediately. endorsed Donald Trump uh I think that. 50% almost under counts the strength.

that Donald Trump is showing tonight. he's winning in virtually every County. there's one County at the moment that. he's losing by a single vote that means. he's winning in cities it means he's. winning in suburbs it means he's winning. in rural areas there is no place in the. state of Iowa where he lost eight years. ago that he's losing tonight and so this. very much looks like the first step. toward a potential renomination for. Donald Trump there's not a lot of bright. spots here for any of the campaigns if.

they want to actually beat him I want to. for a second talk about the call that. was made in this race for trump it. wasn't a surprise what was a surprise. was when the call was made the call was. made startlingly early all of us in this. room from the daily were at a caucus. where the call came before a single. ballot had been cast and I believe that. was the case in many parts of Iowa what. should we make of that you know it's. because this is a caucus and not a.

traditional election I think the. Associated Press made the decision to. call it before all the ballots were cast. now normally in an election they wait. until the polls are closed now very much. the polls were not closed here in Iowa. and after that happened one of the first. messages I got was from Ronda sanz's. Communications team who said election. interference and even in his speech. later tonight Ronda Santa said you know. they're threw the kitchen sink at us. here even calling this race before our. voters had a chance to cast their.

ballots What specifically was so. upsetting to them about this I think. they were upset that this is the state. where he's banked his entire candidacy. that they have rallied people to the. polls they've got them out in. subfreezing conditions to show up at. these caucus sites and again this is not. a regular election you got to stay you. got to listen to speeches in some cases. and then you have to go and cast your. ballot so people could get discouraged. right they might be there they said hey. this has already been called by CNN or.

AB or the New York Times I don't want to. sit here and wait and go through this. process I'm going to go home and so I. think there real concerns about that. right and do the campaigns have a point. here I mean I think that they do have a. point that it's a concern you know I was. certainly among those who was surprised. right I was getting ready for an later. in the evening call and the networks and. AP in very quick succession called the. race right right well we're not here to. debate the media ethics of it but I. think we can both admit that it was.

strange might not have affected any of. the outcome any of the voting there's no. evidence in fact that it did but it was. unusual so regardless of when this call. was made Trump as you said won. authoritatively one decisively won very. very early here pick your adverb pick. your adverb and we have talked a lot. about how because of his dominance in. this race this was really in Iowa a. battle for a second place but I think. it's worth lingering on the nature of.

Trump's dominance and on the reality. Shan that there was nothing inevitable. about him winning so soundly here right. I mean or really winning at all I. thinking back four years to a candidate. who lost the 2020 election triggered a. riot at the US capital was twice. impeached and was seen as one of the. most damaged maybe the most damaged. figure in the history of American. politics so what does the scale of his. victory here tell us I mean I really do.

think it's a pretty remarkable. resurrection and I really think it's. important to go back and think about. where were we 3 years ago when January. 6th happened and when he was impeached. and not just by democrats but by the. most people to ever cross party lines to. impeach somebody and he was ultimately. acquitted by the Senate by Senate. Republicans and that allowed him to run. again and really since then he's been. building power for this moment acting. like a part boss even getting the. Republican National Committee to change.

some of the rules to make it easier for. him to win these states right we've. talked about this to make it easier for. him to win the coming states to. ultimately become the nominee and even. the fact that it's so cold right now was. expected in a lot of ways to work. against him when we were talking to the. campaigns in recent days they thought. really cold less people will turn out. and for months the Trump people and. others have said the bigger the turnout. the better it is for Donald Trump right. now we're looking at something like. 110,000 people are going to have voted a. low turnout in the end a very low.

turnout they were talking about 220 215. 200,000 so you're talking about the. electorate was what they thought was. going to be unfavorable to him and he's. still winning running away right because. a low turnout Iowa caucus still turned. out to be a landslide victory for trump. it really raises the question is is. there any kind of turnout right now that. isn't a landslide for Donald Trump talk. to us just for a little bit about not. just the geography of his victory you. already mentioned that he won basically. almost every county in the state but.

about the demographics of it and what. that reveals about him and his opponents. in this race so the demographic data is. a little bit less clear than just the. vote totals but what they show is a. similar story which is that Donald Trump. was winning he was winning among men he. was winning among women he was winning. among older people he was doing well. among middle-aged people he was doing. the strongest among voters who didn't. attend college which is not a surp. surprise not a big surprise because we.

know that non- colge educated voters. have long been a part of Trump's base. yes um but he was winning a pretty big. share of college educated Republicans. too there's really not places where he's. losing now even his weakest parts. demographically of the Republican Party. he's basically tied with his opponents. where he's weakest and so the challenge. has been for Nikki Haley yes you have. performed more strongly in Highly. Educated Suburban areas and those areas. you're fighting Donald Trump to like. draw right and then you go out to the.

most rural areas the places where maybe. the most conservative parts of the state. the Northwest and dominated by Donald. Trump right Ronda Sanz Nikki Haley. they're not close to him in those areas. and so if this is what the map looks. like here what's it going to look like. everywhere else well she to that point. let's turn to D santis and to this. competition for second. place because it's kind of hard to know. what to make of a second place DeSantis. finish that is so distant from Trump's.

finish and that also is like second. place by a hair right two percentage. points so what do we make of it I mean I. think the problem for him is that it. really doesn't resolve the question of. second place you have to remember that. this is a state that he predicted he. could win in that out win outright he is. the most organized campaign in Iowa he. spent the most time here and he's yet. getting less than half the vote that. Donald Trump has gotten and so where. does it leave his candidacy it leaves.

him ahead of Nikki Haley but so far. behind Donald Trump that it is hard to. see where he goes next the next state in. the calendar is New Hampshire and it's. been the early State he's pulled most. weekly in and so and I think a notable. decision he is flying tonight not. directly to New Hampshire but directly. to South Carolina which is actually. Nikki Haley's home state and which is. not voting until a month from now which. is a long ways away and then he's going. to go up to New Hampshire so he's not. giving up on New Hampshire but he's. giving a pretty clear symbol that he's.

not planning on going anywhere right and. is stuck in a kind of muddled battle for. second place with Nikki Haley who came. in a close third and in a lot of ways. her experience R Shan has been the exact. opposite of DeSantis when we think about. trajectory he enters the race with huge. expectations all the way back to a year. ago we've talked to you about this a lot. somebody who would be lots of people.

thought the real viable Challenger to. Trump which hasn't really happened Haley. entered this race as somebody around. which there were not a lot of. expectations she pulled in the single. digits for months and months so whereas. desantis's experience culminating here. is one of disappointment is it right to. see Haley's performance even though it. was a third place one as something of a. success you know I think it's a. disappointment because of where she was. recently M which is the last poll the.

poll that people watch most closely it's. called the Iowa poll and it showed her. in second place and so she didn't. achieve that metric and more importantly. by falling behind Ronda santis she lost. the argument that she wanted to make. that he should get out of the race she's. trying to frame this up is it's her. versus Trump and Ronda santz is like uh. you know I finished ahead of you here. like you can't quite push me out of the. race yet and so is there any way in. which she's correct knowing what's about. to happen in the next couple of States.

you know I think the biggest winner here. you know where we started it's Trump. right you continue to have this fight. for second place his goal is a divided. Republican party because if there's one. weak spot for him in the results from. Iowa it's that while he won. overwhelmingly compared to where his. Rivals were he had about half the vote. which means about half the voters could. conceivably have voted for somebody else. if they all Consolidated behind one. person right look for every Republican. who wants to beat Donald Trump the math.

is really clear in this race which is. you just need one opponent that if you. have two serious opponents running. against him there's virtually no chance. of beating him for the nomination and. what the results tonight mean is that. they're still going to be two and that's. why Nikki Haley's third place finish is. a disappointment for her she's close to. Ronda Sanz this is in some ways a decent. showing for her but she had a chance. here if she vaulted far ahead of him to. push him out of the race entirely but.

right now this split result is basically. exactly what the Trump campaign would. have hoped for in the last few days. right in that sense it feels like this. was a double victory in Iowa for Donald. Trump the first Victory being 51% of the. vote a landslide the second Victory. being that he left his two main Rivals. with scraps yeah and they're fighting. over the scraps with each other which is. exactly what his team has been looking. for throughout this.

race and so when I think about this win. in Iowa I think it's not just a first. step it's a really big first step toward. becoming the Republican nominee for the. third consecutive. [Music]. election well Shane thank you very much. thank you. [Music]. Michael.

[Music]. we'll be right. back here's what else you need to know. today over the weekend houthi militants. attempted to strike a US warship and. damaged a US commercial ship in the Red. Sea in a significant ratcheting up of.

their attacks on a crucial global. Shipping. route the latest round of attacks. suggests that the US and its allies are. so far powerless to stop the. houthis last week an american-led. Coalition carried out dozens of air. strikes against the houthis inside Yemen. but those attacks appear to have only. emboldened the. group the houthis who are backed by Iran.

claim that they're targeting Western. ships in protest of Israel's war against. Hamas today's episode was produced by. Mary Wilson Claire tennis gter and muj Z. it was edited by Rachel quer contains. original music by Dan Powell and was. engineered by Chris Wood our theme music. is by Jim runberg and Ben lanord work of. [Music].

wonderly that's it for the daily I'm. Michael babro see you. [Music]. tomorrow.