Trump’s D.O.J. Went After the Fed. It Backfired.

From the New York Times, I'm Natalie. Kitroof. This is the Daily. [music]. [music] Even for an administration that. has taken revenge to an extreme, the. decision to open a criminal. investigation [music]. into Fed Chairman Jerome Pal has stunned. the worlds of [music] business and. politics. Today, my colleagues Colby Smith and.

Glenn Thrush explain how [music] the. investigation came about, the panic it. unleashed, and why it might have made. the Fed [music] chair stronger than. ever. [music]. It's Thursday, January 15th. Glenn Colby, welcome to the show. It's. great to have you here. >> Thank you.

>> Thanks. It's good to be back. >> So, for the past several months, we've. been tracking this simmering conflict. between President Trump and Federal. Reserve Chair Jerome Pal. Trump has been. trying to push PAL for a while now to. lower interest rates as fast as. possible, and Pal has been resisting. And then in the past few days really. that fight entered a new and. unprecedented phase. Federal prosecutors. opened a criminal investigation into PAL. and that set off a firestorm in.

Washington. You two have been covering. this moment. Glenn from your perch as. our Justice Department reporter, Colby. as our Fed reporter. And I want to start. by asking you, Colby, to help us get up. to speed on how exactly we got from. simmering conflict to this extremely. tense moment. So, it all centers around. interest rates. As you mentioned, Trump. has been all over the Fed for not. lowering borrowing costs as fast as he.

would like. They've lowered interest. rates three times over the course of. three meetings, but it hasn't been. enough for the president. He is facing a. lot of pressure from constituents who. are worried about affordability issues, are worried about high inflation, about. a weakening labor market. And all of. this is making Trump feel like the Fed. needs to be doing more. And standing in. the way of that is Chair Powell. >> Right. We've seen Trump put a ton of. pressure on Powell personally. He's. threatened to fire him. He's called him.

names. And all of that has really not. done all that much, if anything, it. seems, to make Pal move on interest. rates. >> That's right. But then over the summer, he found a new angle. And what he. focused on was this renovation project. that was happening at the Fed's. headquarters in Washington. There had. been massive cost overruns. This thing. was running about $700 million over. budget, and it was looking like it was. going to cost somewhere in the ballpark. of $2.5 billion. And when Trump saw. this, he seized on it and used it to go.

after Powell and say this Fed chair must. be incompetent and mismanaging this. project or maybe something like fraud. was happening here. Okay. So, I've read. a lot about this renovation and it does. sound like it was extremely costly and. did go way over budget, but do we have. any indication that there was anything. criminal here? There was fraud. >> So, it's certainly expensive. I mean, $2.5 billion for a building is no. laughing matter. And what we do know is.

that the costs were running about 700. million over budget or so. So, clearly. the project had gone a little bit ary. here. I think what's important context. though is that these are 100-year-old. buildings. They've never been. comprehensively renovated before. There. was a lot of work to be done to kind of. maintain the original features. Um, and. they also were dealing with higher costs. for materials and labor. But I think. it's important to note that cost. overruns, they're not a crime. But. you're saying that Trump sees in these.

cost overruns an opportunity to gain. leverage over PAL. Glenn, from your. reporting on the Justice Department, just explain how the White House lands. on an investigation as the next move. here. >> because the Justice Department has. become for the White House its principal. conduit for achieving retribution or. intimidating political adversaries. And. Trump has a lot of people in his orbit. telling him things that he wants to. hear. Chief among them is a guy by the.

name of Bill Py. Most people haven't. heard of him because he runs a. relatively obscure agency. >> Yeah. Explain who he is. >> He's a former real estate developer and. he runs the agency that deals with. housing finance, which seems like a. pretty benign and non-controversial. post. This is a guy who's been pushing. Trump to go after a couple of his. enemies on mortgage fraud. Leticia. James, the New York State Attorney. General, Adam Schiff, the senator from. California, who has been a burr under. Trump's saddle, and recently he's been.

pushing Trump to use this renovation as. a way to go after Powell. And what. you're saying is the guy who is. suggesting this, this official Bill Py, he may seem obscure to many of us, but. actually within Trump's orbit, he's kind. of distinguished himself as something. like an unofficial chief retribution. officer. He's engineering many of these. pushes to go after figures that Trump. wants to see punished.

>> What makes this one different, however, is this isn't about going after an. enemy. This is about applying leverage. for political result and to pursue. Trump's goal to gain more control over. the Fed uh and economic policy at a time. uh when his approval ratings on the. economy are in the tank. So PY has been. in Trump's ear telling him that this is. a possibility that something could. really be done against Powell.

>> which of course we now know they did. take action against Powell. So tell me. about how this all came about. What. exactly happened? >> So enter Janine Piro. She is the US. attorney for Washington DC, the District. of Columbia. And she is the person who. has jurisdiction over the Fed. headquarters. So this is in her. territory. Piro is obviously somebody. who has been close to Donald Trump for a. long time, decades really. She is the.

former Westchester District Attorney. She's a former Fox host. She is somebody. who talks to Trump constantly. H. >> pro at some point in the fall, we think. around November, starts reading press. accounts, including one in the New York. Post that really hits home for her, and. she decides to assign a couple of. prosecutors in her office to begin a. preliminary inquiry into Powell's. activities. >> She's reading press stories, to be. clear, she's reading press stories that. are talking about this renovation and.

the fact that it is costly. >> Yeah. and really press stories from. Trump friendly news outlets that are. emphasizing the potential culpability of. Powell in something nefarious. So this. motivates her and she starts moving. forward. Our sense is that this started. off pretty slowly, but by December this. starts to really pick up and Piro's. office sends the Fed two letters. requesting information. Now, we don't.

have copies of these letters, but. they've been described to us. And one. PIO associate said these were among the. most polite letters her office ever sent. to anyone. >> Colby, is that sense shared within the. Fed? Like, how were these letters. received? >> These were seen as, you know, casual. outreach. I mean, breezy almost in a. way. Nothing of the sort that would lead. to a criminal investigation and an. imminent one at that. There was no. mention of an investigation, no mention.

of subpoenas, no deadline even for a. response. They were over the holiday. period. It was around December 19th and. then the second email came on December. 29th. And there was no real sense of. kind of urgency in terms of a response. And so the Fed sits tight. They don't. respond to those letters and they never. expected what would happen next. Okay, I get that these letters landed. during a kind of dead holiday week and. they didn't come with a deadline, but. these were prosecutors asking for.

information, right? Like why didn't the. Fed respond? Do we know? So, I think. there's a lot we don't know about the. like ins and outs of their responses. here, but I think what's been clear, especially about these renovations, is. that this is something that the Fed has. had to provide a lot of answers for, and. they've provided a ton of information. since this whole controversy broke out. back in July. That was a time when there. was so much scrutiny over this project,

which is a two and a half billion dollar. sprawling multi-year undertaking that. had drawn so much attention that even. the president came and visited the. active construction site and openly. sparred with Chair Powell over the true. cost of the project. So this is. something that they had answered. countless lawmaker questions about, not. only about the nature of the cost. overruns, but what the specific plans. around the project were going to be. So.

I think in a lot of ways the perception. was there's a lot of information already. out there about these renovations and I. don't think that they thought that this. required an immediate response. >> Got it. So, the lack of response to. these letters may have been because Pal. is basically saying, "We have been. forthcoming and we haven't done anything. wrong." So, Glenn, tell me, how do we. get from these apparently very polite. letters to a criminal subpoena? >> It's right here that this collides with. the pressure campaign that Trump is.

ramping up against his own justice. department. A couple of days earlier, very interesting closed-d dooror meeting. between Trump and dozens and dozens of. US attorneys from around the country, including Janine Piro. Trump lashes out. at them, calls them weak, accuses them. of not aggressively enough pursuing his. retribution agenda. And it is just a. couple of days later that Piro makes the. decision to start playing hard ball with. the Fed. And then on Sunday night, we.

break the story that Piro initiated a. criminal investigation into the Fed. And. then Powell comes out and says his. office got subpoenas on Friday. >> And the way Powell did that was. extraordinary. >> Good evening. On Friday, the Department of Justice. served the Federal Reserve with grand. jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal. >> Shortly after we broke the story on. Sunday night, the Fed released a. two-minute video. It featured Powell.

standing alone in front of a lectern. reading a statement. >> This unprecedented action should be seen. in the broader context of the. administration's threats and ongoing. pressure. >> And it basically called out the. president for these legal threats. >> This new threat is not about my. testimony last June or about the. renovation of the Federal Reserve. buildings. and he made clear that all of. these legal threats related to the. renovation, >> those are pretexts, >> were nothing more than pretexts to put. pressure on the central bank to lower.

interest rates. >> This is about whether the Fed will be. able to continue to set interest rates. based on evidence and economic. conditions or whether instead monetary. policy will be directed by political. pressure or intimidation. >> And Colby, you've been covering the Fed. and Chair Pal for a very long time. So. just explain for me why this video was. so extraordinary. >> So we hadn't really seen Powell directly. respond to anything the president has. really done. Now what that has looked. like is Powell kind of brushing aside.

all of the various attacks that the. president has thrown his way. Anytime. he's insulted him, anytime he's. threatened to fire him or tell him to. resign, Powell has pretty much ignored. that. >> I have served at the Federal Reserve. under four administrations. Republicans. and Democrats alike. >> But this was different. This was not a. rhetorical attack. This was not. something that I think the chair thought. that he could ignore. I think the. thinking there was that this was a.

moment to step up and say something. strong about Fed independence and to. show that, you know, the Fed was not. going to be pushed around any longer. >> Public service sometimes requires. standing firm in the face of threats. I will continue to do the job the Senate. confirmed me to do with integrity and a. commitment to serving the American. people. [music] Thank you. And once that video goes out and we hear. [music] Powell say those words out loud,

everything changes. [music]. We'll be right back. Okay. So, Pal comes out with this.

statement and it really changes the. dynamic. How? Walk me through that. What. happens? We see a backlash from Republicans and. Trump allies across the board that we. had not seen after the announcement of. investigations and prosecutions. This is. totally different. [music]. The first person out of the gate was Tom. Tillis. >> I mean, the president said he wasn't in. the mix. Another example of amateur hour. as far as I'm concerned. >> Do you think. >> he's a kind of a moderate Republican.

from North Carolina? He's not running. for reelection. Those are always the. people who speak loudest in Washington. And he comes out and he says, "President. Trump, whoever you send up to the hill. to replace Powell, I'm not even going to. vote on if you continue down this road. on this prosecution.". >> So, should they drop the investigation? >> I'm not going to get into that. What I'm. going to do is drop any consideration. for any board confirmation until it's. done. >> That just hasn't happened before. And.

then in the succeeding hours and and. really over the next 36 hours, we just. saw this cascade of criticism. >> I will be shocked if he has done. anything wrong [music]. >> from places Trump isn't used to seeing. criticism from. Fox News. >> Well, I'm not sure this investigation. will ever go anywhere. I doubt very. seriously that Jerome Pal lied to. Congress in any intentional way. He may. have been mistaken in something that he. said, but I think he's an honorable man. And. >> Larry Cuddlo, he was a terrible Fed. chair, but he's [music] not a criminal. one of his top economic adviserss during.

the first term and somebody Trump. watches on TV all the time said this was. a stupid idea and other members of the. Senate including John Thoon the majority. leader. >> if the justice department is pursuing. something I hope they have a smoking gun. [music]. >> expressed extreme skepticism about this. and said that they needed to see real. evidence that Powell had committed. criminality [music] for this thing to go. forward with their approval. Okay. So, I understand that Pal is,

you're saying, very trusted among many. people on the Hill, but Glenn, we know. that Republicans have been very willing. to go along with a lot from Trump, a lot. of retribution efforts, even a lot of. attacks on the Fed before this. So, why. do they break with him on this so. forcefully? In less than 6 months, the midterm. elections are going to hit full swing. And there is nothing that makes. Republicans speak up louder and.

challenge their own president than the. potential prospect of losing their jobs. And anything that threatens the. potential stability or the economy, they. are going to fight back. And that's. exactly what we're seeing. And I also. think it's important to note that. nothing's going to rattle financial. markets more than thinking that the. central bank is an independent. And it's. been notable that we haven't seen more. of a market reaction. I think some. people were expecting in the aftermath. of this that this would be a seismic.

moment. But a lot of what I hear is that. having so many Republican lawmakers come. out and say that they don't stand by. attacks of this nature has has really. helped to alleviate fears that the Fed. isn't suddenly going to fold here and no. longer act independently. But again, I. mean, it's not just the economy that I. think these lawmakers are focused on. It's really Wall Street, which we know. is a barometer of success for the. president. and just say quickly why it. is that Wall Street will react so. strongly to the appearance that the.

Fed's independence is really being. threatened. >> Well, so much of the stability of the. financial system rests on the fact that. we have a central bank that wants to. pursue low stable inflation and a. healthy labor market. And if that has. changed, then I think people's. assumptions about the financial system. in the US start to change. That. independence is what bolsters people's. confidence in the dollar in US. treasuries. And so if you flip the. script on Fed independence, then it. really starts to change people's.

perspective of just how stable is the US. economy and its financial system. >> Another way to think about this is this. is like pulling out the one Jenga piece. you cannot afford to pull out. This is. not something that Republicans want. It's not something that adds to. stability. Look, when the Justice. Department goes after James Comey or. Tish James, it compromises fundamental. issues of of rule of law, but you know, it doesn't imperil the overall economy.

That's something Republicans on the Hill. cannot abide. >> And what has the Trump White House. response to this rare showing of. disscent been? Like, does Piro, for. example, see her actions as a mistake? Now, >> Janine Piro's reaction to this has been. really interesting. When the blowback. happened, and it was pretty much. instantaneous. Piro responded by. downplaying the seriousness of this. investigation. She essentially said that.

the lack of response is what. precipitated this, that an investigation. is far from being a prosecution. Piro. has downplayed the likelihood that this. will result in prosecutions. So, she did. something that you almost never see. Justice Department people do in the. Trump era, and that is walk it back ever. so slightly, >> but she's somebody who is attempting to. balance her desire to please the boss. >> with maintaining some semblance of her.

own image as an impartial prosecutor. motivated by facts rather than politics. And who knows, while the Republicans on. the Hill and the international monetary. community might think Piro has gone way. overboard, Trump to some extent is quite. likely to see this as her executing. something that he wanted accomplished. >> and do we have an understanding of how. Trump is perceiving this? What's his. reaction been? >> So Trump is not necessarily like backing.

away from this. He tried to create some. distance between himself and the. investigation. and he said he didn't. know anything about it, but he's. certainly not taking the opportunity to, you know, shift his tone as it relates. to Powell. >> He's billions of dollars over budget, so. he either is incompetent or he's. crooked. I don't know what he is, but he. doesn't certainly doesn't do a very good. job. >> Recently, he, you know, called him a. jerk and said that it didn't really. matter much because he'd be out soon. >> Last week, the average 30-year mortgage.

up below 6% for the first time in many. years. It's coming down very rapidly and. that's not with the help of the Fed. If. I had the help of the Fed, it would be. easier, but that jerk will be gone soon. >> Referencing the fact that Powell's term. is up in May. But what we do know is. that inside the administration, it's a. bit more complicated. Treasury Secretary. Scott Bessant, who's leading the process. to find Powell's replacement as chair, was not on board with this decision at.

all. He called the president directly. when he found out the investigation was. moving forward and you know expressed. his frustration and told the president. that this could impede their plans to. confirm a new chair for the Fed. And is. that true Colby? Like could this. actually impact the administration's. ability to nominate Pal's replacement? >> Yeah, this could be a big impediment. I. mean, as Glenn mentioned earlier, it was. Senator Tillis who kind of raised his. hand and said, you know, I'm not going. to be on board with approving or moving.

along any of the nominations that the. administration is putting forward for. this chair position. And that's a big. problem because he's on the Senate. Banking Committee and they are. responsible for vetting and questioning. and then voting on who proceeds to the. full Senate for a vote. And if they lose. Tillis, that could result in a. deadlocked vote. So, it could very. easily be the case that the whole Fed. nomination process gets thrown off the. rails. Second to that, it's very. possible that Chair Powell decides to.

stay on as a governor after this point. His term as chair is up in May, but he. technically can stay on at the central. bank until 2028 when his term as a. governor expires. Now, this is important. because what Trump really wants to do is. to put as many of his supporters at the. Fed as possible. And if Powell doesn't. leave, that blocks another vacancy that. Trump would have had to put forward. someone that he wanted in that position. >> Can we just pause and cogitate for a.

second on that? Like what you just said. is essentially that this dramatic move. against Pal may have both made it much. harder for Trump to put his own person. in as the head of the central bank and. it also may prompt Pal to stay on at the. bank in a voting capacity for a while. longer than Trump probably wants. The. paradox here is Trump may have lost a. significant amount of his authority over. the American economy by trying to assert.

dominance over these institutions. His. reach might very well have exceeded his. grasp. I know we say this a lot in a lot. of context, but but Trump is, you know, not too far from the second half of his. second and lame duck term here. And he. may have pushed this a bit too far. He's. been able to have his way with the. Justice Department. He's been able to. have his way with Republicans on. Congress until fairly recently. >> He can extract a dictator from. Venezuela, it seems, without much.

resistance. >> Exa Exactly. Exactly. But this is a guy. who's got a 40% approval rating and. there are limits to his authority. And. what he's also hitting here are the. institutional strengths that were. created, this bull work in the Federal. Reserve in the early 20th century that. were intended to withstand precisely. this kind of an executive power grab. And this might be a real moment, potentially a high watermark in terms of. Trump's control over the economy. This.

is the kind of mistake that presidents. tend to make. We tend to think of Donald. Trump as being completely outside of the. stream of history. But presidents. typically in their second terms often. times after an election that they. believe validated them tend to uh reach. for goals that they do not have the. political support to achieve. Time will. tell if this is one of those instances. But the early indications are Donald. Trump may have gotten himself into some. trouble here. And for Powell, Colby and.

the Fed, what is the lesson in all of. this? This institution that prides. itself on being so careful with its. words and so cautious to not engage in. any partisan behavior has now come out. and defended itself forcefully and it. seems to be working. So what's the. upshot? I think the upshot here is that. the Fed in being so quiet and so.

non-confrontational in the past year, I. think they built up a lot of respect and. goodwill. And so when the time came when. the president took too aggressive of a. step and attacked the institution in a. way that so many people thought was a. step too far, when they finally did. respond, everyone sat up and listened. And I think that now we are entering a. new era where officials feel a little. bit more forthright in calling out the. president for what he is doing. And that.

in turn I think is going to help to. bolster the independence of the Fed. which had been under you know relentless. attack in the past year or so. And in. some ways in trying to weaken the Fed, the president and the administration. only made it stronger. >> [music]. [music]. >> Well, Colby Glenn, thank you so much.

>> Thank you. >> Thank you. [music]. [music]. We'll be right back.

>> Here's what else you need to know. Today, >> we have been we have been informed by. very important sources on the other. side. They've said the killing is. stopped and the executions won't take. place. There were supposed to be a lot. of executions today and that the. executions won't take place. >> On Wednesday, President Trump said that. the Iranian government appeared [music]. to have stopped killing protesters. Trump had been threatening to attack. Iran if the government harmed. demonstrators and [music] he didn't say. Wednesday whether he was still.

considering military action. Does. >> this mean military action is now off the. table against Iran? and we're going to. watch it and see what the process is, but we were given a very good uh very. good statement by people that are um. aware of what's going on. >> Iran had announced on Wednesday that it. was closing airspace across the country. to [music] commercial flights and the US. military had evacuated personnel from. Qatar [music] amid the tensions. But. after Trump's comments, a US military.

official told the Times that the. Pentagon was ready to bring troops. [music] back to the base in Qatar, saying the president had given a quote. offramp. [music]. And Senate Republicans successfully. blocked an effort to force President. Trump to seek congressional approval for. any military action in [music]. Venezuela. Last week, it seemed that the measure to. curb the president's war powers would. come up for a vote after five [music]. Republican senators said they would. support it. But on Wednesday, after.

speaking with officials from the Trump. administration, two of those senators, [music]. Josh Holly of Missouri and Todd Young of. Indiana, flipped their positions [music]. and joined the push to kill the measure. Today's episode [music] was produced by. Mary Wilson and Michael Simon Johnson. It was edited by [music] Devin Taylor. and Mark George, contains music by Diane. Wong and Pat [music] McCusker, and was. engineered by Alyssa Moxley.

[music]. That's it for the Daily. I'm Natalie. Kitro. See you tomorrow. [music].