Trump's 2024 Playbook

from The New York Times I'm Michael. babbaro this is the. [Music]. daily as 2024 begins we examine the. campaign strategies of the two leading. candidates for President Joe Biden and. Donald Trump to understand what they'll. look like over the next. year today my colleague Maggie Haberman. on how Trump is trying to wrap up the.

Republican nomination before any court. case can stop. [Music]. him it's Tuesday January. [Music]. 2nd Maggie Michael Happy New Year to you. Happy New Year to you this is our first. episode of 2024 I am honored to be here. with you for your first episode of 2024.

and we decided to give our listeners a. set of handrails to understand what is. likely to be the biggest story of the. year which is the presidential race the. 2024 campaign and we turn to you Maggie. to better understand the candidacy of. Donald Trump you have chronicled Trump. now for ever uh and a day um it's been a. long time Trump who of course leads his. Republican Rivals by what feels like. historic margins and what we really want.

you to do is give us a blueprint for. what his candidacy is going to look like. what it's going to feel like and have. you help us understand its overarching. strategy and its message and I think we. have to start with the reality that this. campaign is really defined by how much. Trump has become a defendant in not in. just one court but in many courts in the. many cases where he's been indicted or. sued so just I guess start there sure I. often say that this is not a campaign.

it's a series of court dates wrapped. around some debates and that's really. been true these court cases are the. centerpiece of Donald Trump's life right. now and because of that they have been. integrated into his campaign messaging. fundraising and with him as the likely. Republican nominee the entire election. so if you think about it going back to. March he has been indicted four. times he's been indicted over hush money. payments made to an adult film star in.

the 2016 campaign that's the Manhattan. District Attorney's case he's been. indicted by the federal government over. his handling of classified documents. he's been indicted by the special. councel over his efforts to overturn the. election results and he's been indicted. by The Fulton County district attorney. in Georgia over his efforts to overturn. the election results in that state he. faces 91 counts in those cases and those. are criminal charges right that's a lot.

of counts that's a lot of cases a lot of. felony counts beyond that there are two. civil cases there's the egene Carol. defamation case remember she is a woman. who said that Trump sexually assaulted. her decades ago and that he defamed her. and there is a civil case brought by the. New York attorney general that accuses. him of financial fraud so just. logistically all of these cases take up. a lot of his time they will ultimately. make campaigning somewhat tricky to. schedule for the cases he must be in.

court right it's hard to schedule a. rally a fundraiser a meet and greet. weeks or months out when you've got this. many court cases that may require you to. be in court that's just going to be a. reality for him it's unlike any reality. I think any leading candidate for. president has ever faced. yes and as a result his campaign for. months has been coming up with a. strategy that could Ensure.

that he is still a political candidate. no matter what happens in those court. cases and what is that strategy so it. was an elaborate back room campaign. using his influence over the Republican. party to try to make sure that he has. wrapped up the nomination the number of. delegates that he needs to become the. nominee as fast as he can to make sure. that if he is convicted in one of these. cases it can't be taken away from him. when it comes time for the party's. convention in July okay so what does.

this back room campaign actually look. like on the ground so it's essentially a. lot of schmoozing and gladh handing and. sort of traditional politics all of. which are working toward the ultimate. goal of having the system work better. for Donald Trump the system of course. being the nomination of a republican. candidate for president correct which. itself involves a lot of series of State. Republican party rules that get changed. in the fall the year before the general. election so.

some of this was pretty traditionall. looking right Trump has made a bunch of. phone calls to officials in various. States one was Hawaii where the state. party chairman was elected in May and. soon after got a voicemail from Trump. and it's a very classic Trump message. it's your all-time favorite President I. just called to congratulate you. seemingly small but probably quite. meaningful for him correct it's the kind. of thing that is pretty costree for. Trump that he dolls out pretty easily. and then there's the maralago at aspect. of it where Trump has people down to his.

club and courts them so there was a. dinner with State Republican officials. including the head of the Nevada GOP. who's a trump Ally months after this. dinner at Marl Lago the Nevada. GOP significantly changed their rules. around their nominating contest that put. Ronda santis at a huge disadvantage how. so well they basically blocked the super. pack that DeSantis has been relying on. for months from taking part in.

the state caucuses this new rule. basically bars super packs from sending. in speakers or literature even just. pamphlets to caucus sites or even. getting data from the state party. meaning data they can use to approach. voters that really really harmed D. santis it was a laser aimed at him I. just want to be clear this is an. important chronology the head of the. Nevada Republican party goes to a dinner. at maral Lago and obviously spend some. real time with Trump and get some.

affection and some exposure and not long. after Nevada changes how campaigns can. be run in the state in a way that. empowers Trump and kind of kneecaps his. biggest rival Ronda santz the Nevada GOP. did it was building toward state. election rules that ultimately favor. Trump according to people close to Trump. and people in campaigns aligned with his. Rivals and the impact of it has been. pretty dramatic which is is that no.

serious candidate is really campaigning. in Nevada super Pacs have not been. airing ads on behalf of their candidates. basically everybody has forgone the. state huh so basically this rule change. has resulted in in everybody seeding. Nevada to Donald Trump even if they're. not actually doing it that's the effect. where else has Trump's back room. campaign been effective so California. they made the biggest changes of any. state to primary rules to to favor Trump.

this cycle and Republicans there changed. the formula for how delegates are. allocated in the past there's 52. congressional districts in the state and. candidates could go to each one and if. you won the district you would pick up. delegates but the Trump campaign pushed. for changes to those rules this year for. a win or take all system and now the GOP. in California is going to give all 169. of its delegates to a candidate who. meets the win or take all threshold of. over 50% Statewide I mean that's a very.

high threshold a candidate getting 50%. in fact that seems pretty much tailor. made for Donald Trump it certainly does. if you're looking at all of the polling. right now so in California the Trump. campaign changes the rules it feels like. so that he and only he can pretty much. win every single delegate and 169. delegates is a fair amount of delegates. he's kind of taking a state off the map. for his Rivals correct and he is doing. it in a state California which votes on.

super Tuesday and that is the first week. of March so it is part of a bigger plan. to have the nomination wrapped up by the. end of March in terms of how many. delegates he has and March is. significant for another reason it's. currently when the trial in Washington. DC on charges of illegally subverting. the election in 2020 is scheduled to. begin now it's not likely to begin then. it it will be a little delayed but. that's the track it's on and if that.

trial doesn't start in March Alvin Bragg. the da of New York may start the hush. money case which is also expected in. March so March is a key month for him. right and according to the rule changes. you have just described Trump's going to. be a lot closer combined with his poll. numbers to becoming the nominee before. or just as those trials are starting. therefore he will become the nominee we. suspect before there's a verdict in any. of those cases that is correct megie has.

anyone observed that what the Trump. campaign is up to here looks and sounds. a lot like maybe rigging right a word. that Trump uses a lot sometimes falsely. but a lot yes people are very upset. about this Michael among them is Ken. Cinelli who was a trump Administration. official when Trump was president who. now supports Ronda Sanz he used that. exact word to Shane goldmacher and. Jonathan Swan and me he said quote. they've rigged it anywhere they thought. thought they could pull it off unquote.

we should of course point out that. everything Trump is doing within the. Republican Party rule changes and please. correct me if I'm wrong it's perfectly. legal it's just that it's very. aggressive and it clearly exploits his. unusual level of power over party. leadership now so far what you're. describing is local state level does. this backroom campaign extend to the. National Republican apparatus to the. Republican National committee itself yes.

Michael it does so remember that Trump. assuming he wins all these primaries MH. will not officially be nominated as the. GOP nominee for president until the. Republican National Convention in. Milwaukee in July and you can see a. world where he's convicted of a crime. and some faction of the party that does. not want a nominee who's been convicted. of a crime tries to embark on a last. minute effort to get somebody else. nominated and so so what Trump's team is.

trying to do is make sure that the rules. committee does not have the ability to. make a bunch of changes that would favor. another candidate and not Trump and so. an example might be a rule that would. say you can't be the nominee if you're. convicted of a crime or even that you. can't be the nominee if you're indicted. fascinating and Trump has a lot of. allies on the rules committee and they. are expected to be watching this process. very very carefully so we should. understand that in the same way that. Trump has essentially huge influence.

maybe even veto power over State rules. he has that same power over National. Republican rules correct and I expect. that his campaign is going to try to. exert more and more influence over the. National Party in the coming months so. in a real sense the Trump campaign has. kind of thought of everything it's. thought of how to ensure that no one can. really challenge him he's taking States. off the map and he's making sure that if. a court case goes against him the party. really can't do all that much about it.

that's right the way to think about this. is that the Trump team this time which. is staffed with much more seasoned. people than his 2016 campaign they're. trying to eliminate unpredictability at. a moment when the court cases create so. much. unpredictability so the way to think. about Trump's 2024 strategy especially. within the context of ensuring he wins. the Republican primary is that his team. is basically building a court prooof.

strategy for what we expect to be a very. courtroom bound candidate who could be. found guilty of some very serious. crimes yes and of course he is still. campaigning and he's not required to be. in court right now he's acting like he's. running a typical campaign he's doing. rallies and that's where you see the. other blueprint for this candidacy the. public message and that's just as. revealing as as the back room campaign.

we've been talking. [Music]. about we'll be right. back Maggie let's now talk about this as. you said second blueprint for Trump's.

candidacy the message he's delivering at. his rallies you have been watching and I. assume attending these rallies mostly. watching recently attending yes ladies. and Gentlemen please welcome the next. president of the United States President. Donald J Trump and. I'm okay so let's start with how Trump. addresses the legal questions that we.

have just been talking about what. exactly is the message he's delivering. about all these so in fact I was at a. rally that he did at the end of December. in New Hampshire every time the radical. left Democrats Marxist communist and. fascists indict me I considered a great. badge of honor because I am being. indicted for you thank you very much he. has a bunch of familiar tactics that he. uses he tells his supporters that really.

these prosecutors are after them they. want to silence me because I will never. let them silence you and in the end. they're not after me they're after you I. just happen to be standing in the way. and I will always be stand and because. he's standing up for them and he's just. in the. [Applause]. way but he started wrapping that in new. language it's no wonder Biden and the. far-left lunatics are desperate to stop. us by any means necessary they're.

willing to violate the US Constitution. which is saying that actually it's. President Biden who is puppeteering all. of this Joe Biden is a threat to. democracy he's a. threat and that Democrats are the real. threat to this country so you know we. talk about democracy but the whole world. is watching the persecution of a. political opponent that's kicking his. ass it's an amazing. [Applause].

thing I want to zero in on something you. just said which is that Trump is now. claiming Democrats are a threat to. democracy that of course is complicated. perhaps to many years ironic because. Democrats and not just Democrats view. Trump and what he did around the 2020. election the very reason he's in so much. legal trouble as a direct threat to. democracy I mean he tried to overturn a. democratic election he didn't like the. results of so he's trying and this seems.

quite strain to flip that around and say. no the real threat to democracy is. President Biden because his justice. department has brought some of these. cases correct in Trump's telling Trump. has done nothing wrong of course and. it's that President Biden has weaponized. the federal justice system to go after. arrival and is even controlling these. state-based cases in Georgia and New. York for which there is no evidence for. which there is no evidence in any of it. that President Biden is directing this.

but it's a sign that Trump and his team. know that what Democrats are saying. about Trump is a threat to democracy is. having some effect in terms of the. public just explain that the attacks on. Trump and the description of trump as a. threat to democracy his behavior ahead. of January 6 2021 the things he said. about vice president Mike. Pence these are not pluses with. independent voters and some Republicans. and Trump team is aware of that and they.

are concerned about the general election. and what those attacks could look like. and so Trump is doing what Trump does. best which is try to muddy the waters. right and say actually it's the other. guy doing this thing I'm accused of. doing so that voters can't really tell. the difference anymore got it so for the. most part he's not really engaging with. the cases brought against him and like. you said he's using them as an. opportunity to Simply go after Biden. exactly well talk about the ways that. Trump is going after Biden Beyond a kind.

of reverse projection of his legal. problems so he wraps all of his. discussions related to the court cases. around an attack on Biden where Biden is. weakest which is on the economy the next. economic boom will begin the instant the. world knows that crooked Joe Biden is. gone and Donald J Trump has won four. more years as president of the United. States. and despite a lot of economic indicators.

looking good we know that many people. don't feel good about the economy things. cost more it's difficult to afford a. home when I was at the rally that he did. in New Hampshire at the end of December. there was a screen over Trump's head. where he showed the mortgage rate the. average monthly mortgage payment has. gone from. $1,746 under my Administration to. $3,322 today but you can't get the money.

so it doesn't matter and the point there. is things were better when I was. president put me back in office you'll. have more money in your wallet as long. as Joe Biden is in the White House the. American dream is. dead but all of that will change the. minute the polls slows at election night. 2024 it's a pitch to a lot of Voters the. economy is a pretty basic fact in most. presid presidential elections but it.

could particularly appeal to. Independents or suburbanites who turned. away from him right so this is the part. of the rally where he's not just. thinking about becoming the nominee. which as we talked about through his. strategy he feels kind of assured of. he's now pitching himself to the full. American electorate that's right and. Beyond the economy he spends a lot of. time railing against the state of the. country particularly so when he's. talking about immigration and crime you. know when they let I think the real. number is 50 16 million people into our.

country when they do that we got a lot. of work to do and he made a pretty. shocking statement at the New Hampshire. ra they're poisoning the blood of our. country that's what they've done they. poisoned mental institutions and prisons. all over the world not just he described. undocumented immigrants as poisoning the. blood of America I I just want to talk. to you about that language what do you. think he was doing why was he doing it. how should we think about it well it's. language that Echoes language used by.

Adolf Hitler it is language that Echoes. fascists across history it's pretty. shocking to hear a front runner for one. of the two major parties in this country. describing undocumented immigrants this. way and it invokes a blood Purity that. is the language used by white. supremacists and it was not the first. time Trump said it but it was Trump. doubling down on it and in a sense it's.

in keeping with how Trump has at times. campaigned and talked you were at the. beginning of Trump's campaign in 2016. when he talked about immigrants from. Mexico it's very jarring to hear him do. it eight years. later there is always an argument about. whether Trump is actually intensifying. his language or escalating his language. and he just objectively is and I will. direct a completely overhaul doj to. investigate every radical out of control.

fake crooked prosecutor in America for. their illegal racist in Reverse. enforcement of the law the language. where he describes black prosecutors who. are investigating him as reverse racists. is pretty. shocking what he's really saying is they. hate white people yes for which there's. no. evidence I he's not being investigated. because he's white. but it does play into his crowd I think.

as he has gotten angrier and as he has. become more embeded he has become more. emboldened in what he is saying right. more willing to take greater risks in. the kind of extremeness of what he's. willing to say and ignore people who. tell him that this could be very. damaging to him down the road. politically and inciting to people who. listen to it when you think about. everything we're talking about here. there's a kind of deja vu all over again. quality this is Trump's Playbook and it. didn't work for him four years ago he.

lost so how should we think about why it. might be more effective in. 2024 than it was in. 2020 I think the right way to think. about the current campaign is that it's. more like 2016 than 2020 H more like the. first Campaign which he won then the. second then he didn't correct in 2020. enough of a percentage of Americans were. really tired of trump they were tired of.

the drama they were tired of the chaos. he had been president for four years. people wanted to change and Trump lost. 2016 was the campaign where Trump ran as. an outsider against someone who was. basically running as an incumbent. Hillary Clinton who was basically. running as a continuation of President. Obama and Trump obviously beat her this. campaign so far feels more like 2016 and. and Trump is better running as an. Insurgent than an incumbent and you're.

seeing that again right and in a sense. he can run as an Insurgent even though. he had been president because he hasn't. been president the past four years. correct and because of that his Playbook. might be more effective than it was in. 2020 mhm let me just synthesize. everything you have I think explained at. the end of the day this is a campaign. about victimhood does that feel right I. mean Trump's victimhood in his telling. and America's victimhood Trump's telling.

voters that he's a victim of these court. cases and he's telling voters he's. telling America that they are victims of. Biden's policies that's what 2024 is. going to sound like in the hands of. Donald Trump and I guess the question. based on your reporting and your. analysis your understanding of this race. is is that potentially a winning message. that is exactly what the landscape is. for 24 and the reason it could be a.

winning message and again who knows is. President Biden's numbers remain quite. poor if they get better it might not be. a winning message if the economy gets. better and in ways that voters feel good. about it might not but that's basically. the message Trump feels he has and he's. going to push it. endlessly and let me ask you this if. Trump is convicted of something between. now and and the general election next.

November does this framework therefore. get reinforced and deepened and stronger. or does It ultimately all actually kind. of collapse because a conviction is a. conviction and Americans can't wrap. their heads around a convicted person. being their President we are seeing data. in our own polling the paper polling. that suggested that more Republicans. more Trump voters don't think that he. should be the nominee if he is convicted. H it's suggests to me that people had. not really been tuning into what was.

happening with Trump legally they will. be in. 2024 and things may end up looking. different in other words these court. cases and this is where we started they. really do matter they really do. matter well Maggie thank you very much. Michael thank. you over the past few days Trump's legal. problems have only mounted the Secretary.

of State in Maine sought to remove Trump. from the state's Republican primary. ballot citing his efforts to overturn. the results of the last election Maine. joins Colorado whose Supreme Court ruled. a week earlier that Trump could be. removed from the Republican ballot in. that state for the same reason for now. Trump remains on the ballot in both. States as the cases make their way. through the appeals process and many. predict all the way up to the US Supreme.

Court in the coming. weeks tomorrow on The Daily we turn to. the campaign strategy of President. [Music]. Biden we'll be right. back here's what else you need to know. today on Monday Israel said that it. would begin withdrawing several thousand. troops from Gaza at least temporarily in.

what would be the most significant. publicly announced pullback since the. War Began Israel has been under growing. pressure to deescalate its presence in. Gaza but in describing the pullback it. said the decision was primarily driven. by the need to restore normaly to the. Israeli economy which has been hurt by. the massive mobilization of. reservists meanwhile in in a momentous. ruling Israel's Supreme Court has struck.

down a law passed last year by the. right-wing government of prime minister. Benjamin Netanyahu that was designed to. reduce the Court's own power the law. which made it harder for the courts to. overrule decisions made by government. ministers touched off Mass protests. across Israel and raised questions about. the health of the country's. democracy in response to Monday's. decision netanyahu's party rebuked the.

Supreme Court for issuing what it said. was a divisive ruling during a time of. War today's episode was produced by. Summer tomat Luke Vander plug relle. Banja Ricky nety and Olivia Nat it was. edited by Rachel quer Brendan clink BG. and Lexi di it was fact check by Susan. Lee contains original music by Pat. mccusker Dan Powell and Maran Lozano and.

was engineered by Alysa Moxley our theme. music is by Jim brunberg and Ben. lansburg of. [Music]. wonderly that's it for the daily I'm. Michael. borro see you. [Music]. tomorrow.