Trump Goes After Venezuela’s Oil

From the New York Times, I'm Natalie. Kitroof. This is [music] the Daily. In its escalating campaign against. Venezuela, [music]. the Trump administration has gone from. shooting down drug boats to now [music]. trying to seize multiple oil tankers in. the Caribbean Sea. Today, [music] my colleague Anatoli. Kmanay explains why President Trump is. shifting his tactics [music]. on Venezuela and what that might tell us.

about his true [music] endgame. [music]. It's Wednesday, December 24th. Anatoli, merry Christmas. Thanks for. joining us today.

>> Thank you for having me. >> So, the last time we talked to you was. when the US military was ramping up. these strikes on boats in Latin America. that they claimed were running drugs to. the US. We are coming back to you now. because over the past few weeks we've. been hearing about this new kind of. escalation in the Caribbean which is the. US seizing ships that have been carrying. Venezuelan oil. So help us understand. how you're interpreting this new element. to this operation which has been.

dramatic in its own right. >> We have seen major shifts in the. narrative over the last few weeks. Natalie, the focus has shifted from a. primarily military campaign to primarily. economic campaign. The US government has. moved away from boat strikes in the. Caribbean and the alleged campaign to. stop the flow of drugs coming from. Venezuela to the United States and they. have moved towards Venezuelan oil. M. >> they have moved towards taking action.

against tankers exporting Venezuelan oil. the the biggest source of the country's. revenue with a very clear attempt to to. squeeze the country's finances uh. squeeze them to the point of. strangulation and achieve the results. that they have not been able to achieve. through military ends. >> and what is the goal. >> well the rationale that the US officials. have used for this campaign has varied. throughout last several months but. increasingly the message coming out from. US officials in public is about regime.

change, right? That all these different. measures that US has taken against. Venezuela is to force President Niclas. Maduro to to leave office. And Trump has. attempted to crash Venezuelan economy in. the past with a view of getting rid of. Maduro. But what we've seen right now is. unprecedented. It's the biggest economic. pressure against a Latin American state. that we've seen in in decades. Okay, let's walk through exactly what we've. seen. How exactly did this new and as.

you said unprecedented phase of this. pressure campaign start? >> So on December 10th, an oil tanker. called Skipper carrying about 2 million. barrels of oil was heading east towards. China carrying Venezuelan oil to its. biggest market. Extraordinary video. released by the Trump administration. showing the seizure of an oil tanker off. of Venezuela. >> Then it was ambushed international. waters by US law enforcement agents. >> Watch as US Navy helicopters swarm the.

tanker. >> who repelled from a helicopter. >> coming onto the um deck of the oil. tanker and then as I see it there, guns. drawn and took control of a vessel. Tonight, new satellite images of that. oil tanker seized by the US off the. coast of Venezuela, headed to a port in. Galveastston, Texas, >> and ordered the crew to take the ship. towards Texas. >> It's a new escalation in President. Trump's pressure campaign against. Venezuela [music] and what he calls its. illegitimate narotist regime. And at.

first, [music] the tankers detention. appeared to be a one-off, you know, like. a big public relations move, you know, aimed to grab world attention, shift the. narrative away from [snorts] attacks on. drug boats, which were becoming. increasingly problematic in US public. opinion, and would draw an increasing. backlash from American lawmakers, including even some Republicans. [music]. And the seizure was theatrical move that. for many of us with cover Venezuela.

thought was a red herring. >> But it obviously wasn't a red herring. It wasn't a one-off. The administration. then started going after more tankers. >> It became part of something bigger. >> This morning, the United States is. escalating its pressure campaign against. Venezuela. >> Since then, we have seen the US take. action against two more oil tankers with. ties to Venezuelan oil. The US Coast. Guard is pursuing a third tanker [music]. off the Venezuelan coast. It's the third. in the last 10 days. >> And they, as [music] we speak, they are.

chasing another vessel that has worked. in Venezuela, which was on the way to a. country to pick up crude there. >> They're actively chasing it [music] in. the ocean. >> Yeah, it's a very tough image to. understand in your head because clearly. a tanker cannot outrun American. gunboats, but Trump has promised that. [music] they will get it eventually. Got it. So, two seized tankers, one. that's fled. How is the Venezuelan.

government responding to all this? At. this point, >> Venezuelan government is livid. One. source said Maduro is not just angry, he's bananas. They have called the US. murderers, thieves, pirates, referring. to, you know, United States as the. pirates of the Caribbean. Anatoli, when. we talked last, you made it very clear. that forcing Maduro out was a big goal. for very powerful people inside the. Trump administration, Marco Rubio, the. Secretary of State in particular. And it. sounds like that goal has become even. more explicit in the weeks since. But.

what is Trump saying about the official. justification for what the. administration is doing here? >> So the initial explanation was that US. is simply enforcing sanctions already in. place. Trump was doing something that. previous administrations didn't have the. gut to do. >> Can we just pause there and explain for. a moment these pre-existing sanctions. that you're saying have existed on. Venezuela? Take me through those. >> During his first administration, Trump.

made an initial push to topple Maduro. from power and he sanctioned Venezuelan. oil industry. He made it illegal for. American companies to work with. Venezuela State Oil Company, which owns. all the oil in Venezuela. And this made. it very difficult for Venezuela to to. sell its oil. And it started to. increasingly rely on the so-called dark. fleet or shadow fleet. Basically, tankers exist on the very edge of. legality of international law, but carry.

sanctioned oil around the world, primarily to China. and Venezuela's. reliance on sanctioned vessels uh has. given the current Trump administration a. perfect excuse to go after its oil. industry. >> And you said that the Trump. administration is now going out and. actually enforcing these sanctions in a. way that it wasn't willing to do before. and in a way that the Biden. administration hasn't done before. Why? >> Well, the big fear has always been. upsetting the fragile global oil market,

right? creating uh volatility in the. industry and raising global oil prices. which would have an impact on American. pumps. You know, inflation being. obviously a massive political issue in. United States and that has prevented. >> Trump and the B administration in part. from enforcing the sanctions. But this. month, Trump decided to give it a shot. He threw to the side the caution of the. past and went big time against. Venezuelan's oil industry. And so far.

the effects on the oil prices has been. fairly muted. There are a lot of other. different factors at play. The economy. is weak. There's a lot of other. sanctioned oil out there. But so far the. prices have not bulged in any meaningful. way which has given him a card blanch to. to expand his strategy to to scale it. up. But there's a bigger justification. in play. You know, shortly after the. detention with First Tanker, Trump. published this long screed on Truth. Social, his his media platform, where he.

alleged a wholesale theft of American. oil by Venezuelan government. Venezuelan. government, according to him, has stolen. American land, has stolen American oil, has defrauded American oil companies, and he is writing a historical wrong. >> What is he actually talking about there? Explain that. The short answer is that. we don't know is a is a very incoherent. tax that does not neatly match on any. historical events. But throughout its.

history, Venezuela had several ways of. nationalization. Most recently in 2007. where Maduro's predecessor Ugo Chavez. nationalized some of the oil fields. leading to the exodus of some American. companies like Axen Mobile and Kanoko. Phillips who have been suing Venezuelan. government ever since. Okay, so we're. not exactly sure what Trump was. referring to, but it seems to be a. reference to this period of. nationalization where American oil. companies were kicked out of Venezuela. and the government took control.

>> That's right. And Trump announced, and I quote him, a total and complete. blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers. going into and out of Venezuela. A few. days later, his advisor Steven Miller. followed up with with even arguably even. more incendurary tweets alleging that. Venezuela oil industry has been created. by the toil and ingenuity of of American. people and America wants its rights. back.

>> But there is an exception to all this, right, Anatoli? Chevron, which is an. American oil company, is still operating. in Venezuela. >> That's right, Natalie. The reality is a. lot more complex. than the narrative that the Trump. administration is attempting to put. forward. During that last wave of. nationalization, not all American. companies have left. Some have stayed. and the biggest one being Chevron. It's. negotiated with the Solan governments. and the deal that they have worked out. both with Nicholas Maduro and the. government of the United States allows.

them to produce all the oil from the. fields that it operates in Venezuela and. give back half of that oil to Venezuelan. government and export the rest to the. United States. >> Mhm. The thinking of a company has been. that they're willing to swallow this. temporary period of losses or reduced. profits for [snorts] the eventual bounty. that awaits the company in the event of. a government change in Venezuela. Venezuela is sitting on top of the. world's largest oil reserves and Chevron.

would be in a position to benefit from. that. It is interesting that piece of this. that on the one hand US policy has been. to put maximum pressure on the Maduro. regime and yet on the other they are. kind of propping up the regime by. allowing Chevron to give its oil back to. the government. >> Well, it goes to be hard to be. inconsistency of American policy towards. Minnesota right now.

There's a clear intention to starve. Maduro of funds to to force them to. negotiate at [music] best and leave. power at wars. On the other hand, US is. very preoccupied [music]. with Venezuela's energy asset fall into. Chinese hands in [music] case of chaos. in the country. Right? So it has chosen to keep [music]. Chevron working there, continue earning. revenues, continue propping up. Venezuelan governments because [music].

it is concerned that if Chevron were to. leave, those oil fields would fall into. Chinese hands. And the clear. contradictions of this policy makes it. [music] very difficult for anyone to. understand what will happen in Venezuela. next. [music]. >> [music]. >> We'll be right back.

Anatoli, before the break, you left us. with a sense that it is really hard to. know how all of this is going to play. out, but it seems clear from what you. said that the point of this campaign is. to create pain inside of Venezuela. So, I want to turn to that. I want to talk. about the impact this is having inside. the country. How are Venezuelans feeling. about it and how is the Maduro regime. responding? >> Since the start of seizures of tankers,

Venezuelan oil experts have plummeted. This is by far the biggest source of. revenue for the country. And we don't. know what political effect this is going. to have, but we know that this is going. to have a very negative effect on. Venezuelan economy and by extension on. Venezuelan people. Most people in. Minnesota and Natalie dislike Maduro. They want him gone. More than 70% of. them voted against him in last year's. election and they would love to see. political change in the country. And. this current shock and awe strategy.

employed by Trump, many support it. They. are prepared to put up with some. economic pain if it means Maduro live in. office in any meaningful amount of time. The worry, the anxiety in Venezuela. right now is that if Maduro withstands. this current blow, if he manages to. adapt, then the fear is that Venezuelans. will be stuck living in an impoverished, poor, isolated economy. >> It could leave them worse off. Actually,

>> it could leave them worse off. And. remember, Natalie, that this country has. just been beginning to emerge from. another extremely deep economic crisis. which was caused by Maduro's terrible. economic policies and corruption, but. was aggravated by American sanctions. And life has become a little bit easier. in the last few years. The the. government has liberalized the economy, took away many of the currency and price. control that have been hubbling economic. activity. People could breathe, people.

could work, they could invest a little. bit, they could see the return on their. investment. And this new pressure. campaign by Trump is scrambling all. these plans. >> And inside of Maduro administration is. disbelief and anxiety. They are still. scrambling to figure out what exactly is. happening, how they can react to it. Ships are afraid to come to Venezuela. They turning around. They are unwilling. to take Venezuelan crude. They are. sitting in ports because they afraid of. being seized and the oil has to be.

pumped. The oil has to keep coming on. the ground. The soil doesn't have a lot. of storage. It doesn't know what to do. with it. There are calls to seize some. of the tankers and use them as storage. facilities. There are calls to maybe put. armed soldiers on top of the tankers and. left them accompany all the way to. China. Venezuela's gunboats have already. been escorting tankers inside Venezuelan. waters. they are calls to maybe expand. them and let these gunboats go into. international waters. Of course, increasing the risk of confrontation.

with US military. It's a period of. extreme tension and extreme fear inside. Venezuelan government right now. And is. the Trump administration's logic here. that essentially by imposing what the. president has called a blockade, by. creating such terrible conditions inside. Venezuela, the US either prompts an. uprising by the Venezuelan people or. Maduro just voluntarily leaves and gives. up power. Is that what they're after?

>> That is the calculation. In the last few. weeks, we have seen Trump officials. becoming increasingly explicit about. their aims. Susie Biles, the White House. chief of staff, said that the US is. going to keep blowing up boats until. Maduro cries uncle. Christine Owen, the. Homeland Security Secretary said on Fox. News that Maduro needs to be gone. The. calculation is that the economic. pressure, economic pain is going to make. Maduro's holding power untenable. That. is going to lead to an internal.

uprising, an internal coup by factions. of the military that will ask him to. leave or eliminate him. >> And what's your sense of whether that. will actually work? Because you, I know, are a student of Latin American history. The US has been squeezing Maduro. economically for years now. And Cuba, for example, has been under a US embargo. for more than a half century. The. communist government is still holding on. to power. >> That's right. There are few historical. precedents for when economic pressure.

leads to regime change. Governments. adapt and when economy shrinks, people. become more dependent on the government, not less. >> Government is holding a bigger share of. a shrinking pie. You know, I grew up in. Russia. There's an also anecdote. You. know, a a school girl is is walking home. and stumbles upon her drunken father and. she says to him, "Daddy, I heard that. vodka is getting more expensive. Does. that mean that you're going to be.

drinking less?" And he goes, "No, sweetie. It means you're going to be. eating less.". >> Wow. >> And and I think this analogy applies. well to Venezuela. >> Wow. The Soviets really do have the best. anecdotes. I'm also struck anati by the. obvious thing that happens when you. squeeze a country economically which is. that people who are suffering try to. leave it they migrate which is another. thing the Trump administration really. doesn't want to see happen right. >> absolutely and and again we're coming. back to the contradictions of this.

policy that we have talked about earlier. the Trump administration's overarching. goal is to stop the flow of migrants to. the United States at the same time it is. dramatically worsening economic. conditions in Venezuela, which if it. continues is going to lead to another. increase in migration from the country. is going to put pressure on Venezuela's. neighbors and it's going to lead some of. people to head north towards the United. States. And this is a point that the. Maduro government has been making very.

clear that the campaign to topple it. from power is only going to create an. economic crisis and political. instability that's going to lead to a. new migration crisis in the country. When we talked about the boat strikes a. while ago, Anatoli, you had mentioned. that there was this faction inside of. the administration that was pushing for. a diplomatic route, for a negotiation. that might give the US a deal and a way. out of this escalation, this campaign.

Is that still an option here with now. the seizures of these oil tankers? >> That is a crucial question. That is what. I'm focused on because the the headlines. are dramatic. The headlines. unprecedented. But underneath these. dramatic events actually appears to be a. potential diplomatic solution. Trump is saying that Maduro has stolen.

American oil, that he has defrauded. American companies, that America wants. its oil back. And of course, Maduro has. already offered Trump Venezuelan oil. during an earlier round of negotiations. that took place in the spring of this. year. The two governments have come. pretty close to an agreement that would. see a massive increase of American oil. investment in the country and the. country opening up and basically. redirecting its flow of oil from China. to the United States and opening up to. American companies, American.

investments. And what benefit would that. actually give the United States? Can you. just walk us through what the US. actually gets out of potentially. controlling Venezuelan oil reserves? >> It would give United States control over. the world's largest known oil reserves, which in turn means that the US can. control the supply of oil, can control. the global oil prices, and can reward. its allies and punish its adversaries by. manipulating the oil market. Okay. So,

geopolitical benefit. >> Absolutely. Geopolitical benefit. And. there's a bigger, more fundamental. benefit for the United States. Control. of the world's largest oil reserves. would allow United States to follow. through of its plan of becoming the. dominant player in the Americas of. expelling its adversaries, China, Russia, and Iran from a region and. dominating the country's political and. economic environment. >> Yeah. And we've seen the Trump. administration explicitly acknowledge.

that that is the goal of its foreign. policy in this recent document that it. put out its national security strategy. to establish itself, the United States. as the predominant power in the Western. Hemisphere. So how are Russia responding. to this? So far standing on the. sidelines of course China has just. sealed a major trade deal with United. States which is [snorts] crucial to its. economy and it's been very careful about.

what fights picks with United States. We. have seen the seizure of Chinese. property in the actions taken against. tankers. China has issued a statement. condemning these seizures but has not. taken any further action. Russia as well. has made some gestures of uh verbal. support but has not moved beyond that. We have not seen Maduro's allies come to. its aid in any meaningful way. We have. basically seen America's adversary. acknowledging Latin America as a sphere.

of American influence. >> Why would they do that? Why aren't they. coming out more forcefully in defense of. Venezuela and against this action by the. US which theoretically would expand. American power? Part of it is a position. of relative weakness. They are. preoccupied elsewhere. Of course, Russia. is fighting a massive war in Ukraine. China is dealing with economic slowdown. They have bigger fish to fry. But. Trump's actions also fit into this.

country's fundamental worldview which. basically sees world powers, regional. powers having a right to dominate their. neighbors. And for Russia, the loss of. Maduro is an acceptable cause for. American acknowledgement that it has. rights to defend its interest in Eastern. Europe. >> It's fascinating. It sounds like. basically an acceptance by these two. great powers that yes, carving up the.

world into spheres of influence works. well for them, too. >> Yeah. The so-called multipolar world has. been something that Putin has been. talking about for for years and you know. it was sort of largely ignored by. western media by western policy makers. and Trump's actions uh bringing this. world into reality. Anatoli, given. everything you've told us, do you think. we're more likely or less likely to see. military action on the ground in. Venezuela than we were before the.

seizures of the tankers started? Because. I think all of this action against. Venezuela is really concerning for. people who don't want to see a war. We've now seen dozens of boats blown up, American aircraft carriers, and other. warships kind of positioned around. Venezuela. We keep hearing that Trump is. open to land strikes. Bottom line, are. we seeing this ratchet up or cool off. militarily?

>> It it is quite ironic talking about. cooling off as tankers are being seized. on high seas and being chased throughout. the Caribbean. And of course, the US. continues to build up its military. presence in the region. >> But paradoxically, perhaps we are seeing. a a certain ramp down of the. escalations. H. >> we have seen the focus of the boat. strikes move towards the eastern Pacific. away from Venezuela an area where. actually most of the cocaine is being. trafficked and [snorts]. we are seeing on one hand an escalation.

of economic pressure of Maduro to see. whether this economic shock is going to. be enough to topple Maduro from power. On the other hand, however, we are. seeing the emergence of a potential. offramp. of a potential diplomatic deal which. would allow Maduro to ensure the. survival of his political movements in. return for handing the country's natural. wealth to the United States.

[music]. Well, Anatoli, thank you so much. Pleasure to be here. [music]. We'll be right back.

Here's what else you need to know today. On Tuesday, the Supreme Court refused to. allow [music] the Trump administration. to send hundreds of National Guard. troops into the Chicago area. It was a. rare departure from [music] recent cases. where the conservative majority has. sided with Trump in early tests of. presidential power. The order is. preliminary, [music] but it casts doubt. on the viability of similar deployments. in other cities and likely will set. ground rules [music] for legal. challenges in Portland and Los Angeles.

>> [music]. >> And the Trump administration says it. will begin the process of seizing pay. from student loan borrowers who are in. default [music] starting as soon as next. month. Officials will send the first. round of notices to a,000 borrowers. [music] and those notices will increase. every month. It's unclear exactly how. much will be deducted, but the. government can [music] take as much as. 15% of an employees wages for loan. repayment.

Today's [music] episode was produced by. Michelle Bonja, Shannon Lynn, and Eric. Kupkkey. It was [music] edited by Maria. Burn, and Patricia Willins with help. from Paige Cowit. Contains music by Dan. Powell, Diane Wong, and Marian Lozano, and was engineered by Alyssa [music]. Moxley. [music]. That's it for the Daily. I'm Natalie.

Kitro. See you after the holiday.