The War That Won’t End

from The New York Times I'm Sabrina. tavernes and this is the. [Music]. daily Israel has been fighting Hamas in. Gaza for almost a year but despite. catastrophic losses Hamas seems no. closer to declaring defeat and despite. considerable military gains Israel seems. no closer to declaring. Victory today.

my colleague Patrick Kingsley on why the. war in Gaza is still going and what it. would take to end. [Music]. it it's Wednesday August. [Music]. 28th so Patrick we wanted to hear from. you in Israel today because we're coming. up nearly on a year since October 7th. and it really feels like every week you.

write at least one story about the. ceasefire negotiations some weeks it. looks like progress toward a ceasefire. deal other weeks no progress meanwhile. the threat of a wider war in the Middle. East is deepening just this weekend. there was a huge exchange of Rocket fire. in Israel's northern border with Lebanon. you know that doesn't seem likely to end. while the war in Gaza is still going so. we all felt like it was really time to. come to you and ask a basic question.

which is why can't they agree to a. ceasefire and perhaps more. fundamentally why is this war in Gaza. still going. on so these are very good questions both. the questions come down to two men. essentially prime minister Benjamin. Netanyahu of Israel and yya sinoa of. Hamas and to understand why they have. such fundamentally mutually exclusive. position positions on the war we have to.

start with the ceasefire which is the. most basic building block for stopping. the war and the two leaders have a. fundamental disagreement here Netanyahu. the Israeli leader essentially wants a. temporary ceasefire sinoa the leader of. Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire so. Patrick explain that start maybe with. Netanyahu explain that position so for. prime minister Netanyahu the professed. goal of the war is to destroy Hamas to.

destroy this group that invaded Israel. on October 7th killed more than th000. people and abducted roughly. 250 and key members of his farri. Coalition will accept nothing less than. hamas's total defeat Netanyahu needs. that far-right coalition to stay in. power and so if the ceasefire is. temporary it will allow him to present.

the truth to his base as just a brief. measure to free some of the roughly 100. hostages still left inside Gaza after. which Israel can easily return to the. fighting and to defeating Hamas so it. will allow him to get some of the. hostages back thus plating the many. Israelis whose top priority is the. release of the. hostages and it'll take away some of. hamas's key bargaining ship.

and it would allow him to say to his. base that don't worry the war will. continue and Hamas will be defeated. after this brief pause in hostilities. and what's the calculation for sinir. walk us through his reasons for pushing. through a permanent. ceasefire well if he goes for a. temporary one he gives up key bargaining. chips the Israeli hostages who Hamas. captured on October 7th and he doesn't. get much in return he doesn't secure. hamas's survival and he leaves open the.

possibility that fighting will resume. that Israel will continue its campaign. after a few weeks and will continue to. erode hamas's fighting capability and. governing capability and eventually. secure its defeat a permanent ceasefire. by. contrast essentially allows Hamas to. survive the war intact as a political. movement intact as a deplete but still.

active governing force that controls. Gaza it may not be enough to save his. life Israel will probably pursue him for. the rest of his days but it allows Hamas. as a movement to survive the war okay so. these sides are pretty dug in on their. respective very far apart positions but. of course talks have been bumping along. right and they are bumping along with. the help of the United States and.

Secretary of State Anthony. blinkin what if anything has the US. involvement in the talks meant for this. process the US has brought Key Energy at. times when it feels like both the sides. Israel and Hamas and the mediators Egypt. and Kat have lacked energy political. will or desire to sit down at a. negotiating table in particular they've.

been trying to bridge the gaps between. the different sides and their main. approach has been a kind of constructive. ambiguity in the language that is. written in the draft agreements that the. two sides have been haggling over what. does that mean exactly constructive. ambiguity it means having enough. fluidity in the language of the deal so. that both sides can sell the agreement. to their bases as something that.

achieves what those bases want so in. other words not be so forensic in the. wording of the agreement like keeping. the language loose enough so that both. sides can sell it to their populations. so this is essentially a political fix. the US is trying to bring here exactly. and just to give an example of how that. constructive ambiguity in the language. worked at one point in the negotiation.

there was a standoff over the extent to. which Israel would retain a military. presence along a particular thoroughfare. dividing Northern Gaza from Southern. Gaza Israel wanted to maintain. checkpoints there to stop Hamas moving. weapons between those two areas Hamas. didn't and doesn't want Israeli. checkpoints in that. location so the way that the negotiators.

bridge that Gap at least at one point. was to include the principle of that. idea within the draft agreement but not. the enforcement mechanism by which that. plan would be. enacted and that would have allowed the. Israeli leadership Netanyahu to go back. to his right-wing base and say no the. principle of preventing gazans from. moving weapons around Gaza had been. maintained and it would have allowed.

Hamas to argue internally that well yes. that principle is in there but there is. nothing mentioned in that draft. agreement about an enforcement. mechanism right there's no checkpoints. there what checkpoints are you talking. about we are free to move exactly but. then in July we got a window into how. this constructive ambiguity doesn't. quite work while the two sides seem to. have agreed on this ambiguous. terminology in May by July 2 months.

later Israel had come back with a new. demand to replace that ambiguity with. greater Clarity they wanted Clarity on. that principle of stopping Garin from. moving around the territory with guns. could be enforced and of course that. removed the ambiguity and remains. something that Hamas does not want to. agree to and it is one of many stumbling. blocks that is preventing a deal between.

the two. [Music]. sides okay so from all we can tell the. talks are not working or at least. they're proving very cumbersome as. you're laying out here but let's talk. about how Wars normally end which is. that one side admits it can no longer. win and in this case that would appear. to be Hamas I mean as of this month.

40,000 gazin were dead according to. gazen health officials and vast swaths. of its territory are in Ruins so why. doesn't all of that add up to Hamas. viewing this as a defeat well that's a. very reasonable question because when. you look at Gaza and you see all the. astonishing. destruction more than half the hous is. damaged tens of thousands of people. killed.

huge harm to infrastructure and to the. health system you do wonder why doesn't. Hamas surrender in most other Wars a. side that is lost materially to this. extent would have surrendered by this. point but this is not a normal War the. sides have very unusual thresholds for. victory Israel has a very high threshold. for victory.

its leader Netanyahu says he wants the. total Destruction of Hamas Hamas has a. very low threshold for victory it just. wants to survive and Nei the threshold. is very typical usually when one side so. convincingly destroys another think of. Japan in. 1945 the Japanese surrendered. alternatively if you look at other. moments in the second world war when. France realized it was using its leaders.

did not wait for the total Destruction. of France to either flee or give in and. what we have here is we have a side that. by conventional measures is losing but. doesn't want to surrender because its. own threshold for victory is so low that. it kind of thinks that it might actually. be winning so for Hamas as long as it. has one fighter standing essentially. it's still in the war and hasn't lost. the war it's still going exactly and.

what makes all this doubly. unconventional is the fact that the. Israeli Army is itself not fighting in a. particularly normal way it is not. holding the territory that it. conquers and what that means is they are. not controlling Gaza despite the fact. that they have captured most of it by. now at some point during the last 10. months and because they haven't. established control that leads to this. very bizarre form of wacal where Israel.

goes into an area has a very destructive. battle with Hamas leaves Hamas returns. forcing Israel to come back fighting a. second sometimes a third and a fourth. time and still then abandoning its. control retreating again to key. strategic positions within Gaza or even. within Israel and the whole cycle begins. again so it leads to extraordinary.

destruction but it doesn't particularly. lead to a change in who actually. controls Gaza on the ground and Patrick. why don't they occupy the areas that. they've taken well we should say here. that for a lot of Palestinians Israel. never stopped occupying Gaza they. maintained their physical presence. inside Gaza between 1967 and 2005 when. Israeli soldiers and Israeli s has left.

the territory but ever since they've. still maintained some degree of control. over trade the airspace the phone. networks entry and exit the debate among. Israelis is whether they should go back. to maintaining a physical presence as. they did until 2005 and for the moment. those opposed to that physical presence. seem to have won out why because. installing soldiers throughout Gaza is. really difficult it requires vast.

amounts of resources it's complicated. and it's also dangerous it has to be. protected by thousands of Israeli. soldiers they can be killed at any time. if you try and hang on to a territory. the size of Gaza and because of that it. seems like Israel's leadership does not. want to entertain that possibility at. least for now even if there are people. within government and in vast ways of. the Israeli right-wing public the would. actually like to see Israel return to.

building military bases across the Gaza. Strip so if the situation on the ground. won't end the war and a ceasefire seems. improbable at least for now then how. does the war end that is starting to. become the key question how do these two. sides get out of this. war how do they find a way through what. feels like it has become an intractable.

situation and it's beginning to feel. like we're going to need some kind of. game changer something maybe we haven't. quite conceived of so far a Black Swan. event that is going to shift the. tectonic plates of how this conflict is. being fought. [Music]. we'll be right.

back so Patrick we're at this current. impass in large part because of these. two leaders and and their political. calculations and it feels like maybe. only something really big could change. things as you're saying what sort of. game Cher are we talking. about well there's a few different. things that could shift the needle one. could be in the us one could be with the.

Israelis and one could be a regional war. that would change the dynamic across the. Middle East so maybe start with the. United States which is obviously coming. up on a big election exactly and whoever. wins that election we will be left at. the end of it with a different president. and that different president could have. a slightly different focus and attitude. to if not Israel itself then the way. that Israel is Prosecuting this war and. that might in turn change Benjamin.

netanyahu's calculations at the. negotiation table right what else. another wild card would be the killing. of Yahya Sinar the leader of. Hamas that is perhaps Israel's top goal. in Gaza right now they've killed several. other key leaders of Hamas Yahya sinoa. is the last man standing essentially if. he goes if the leader of Hamas goes that. would allow Benjamin Netanyahu to say to.

his Base mission accomplished and that. in turn might allow him to agree to a. ceire under terms that he previously. hadn't agreed to in other words the. farri leaders in his Coalition perhaps. would be satisfied if senoir was killed. exactly and on the other side of the. Border it's possible that with sinir. dead with the most powerful leader. within Hamas dead his subordinates would. be more likely to compromise to.

surrender in his absence of course. that's a big if and it's very possible. that sino's death would not actually. change their thinking on a ceasefire or. on the war itself all that much but the. possibility remains and Patrick what. about the pressure on Netanyahu and the. Israeli government on the part of the. hostage families just on Tuesday one. hostage was actually freed so does this. PR pressure you know the protests.

everything we've been seeing amount to. some sort of gamechanging dynamic for. nyaho I don't think it's gamechanging. for a start it's been going on for a. while and it obviously hasn't shifted. his calculations thus far and secondly. it's interesting you mentioned this. hostage rescue on Tuesday because for. some that actually supports netanyahu's. argument that it's only through more. military action that you can free the. hostages not a truce but further action.

on the ground by the Israeli military in. Gaza and while it's true that there are. lots of protesters calling for Netanyahu. for the Israeli government to prioritize. the hostages well-being and to cut a. deal basically at any price in order to. get the hostages home the people who are. pushing most loudly for that deal are. not netanyahu's own supporters his base. their priority ity is hamas's defeat and.

while they may care about the hostages. and want them home at some point their. immediate release is not their first. priority and Patrick you mentioned. Regional War as something that could. potentially really shift the dynamic. here talk to me about that well. alongside the Gaza War we also have. smaller simmering complex between Israel. and hamas's allies across the region. those are Hezbollah in Leon the houthis.

in Yemen and the benefactor of all those. three groups Iran and to varying degrees. those proxies of Iran and Iran itself. have been fighting this low-level. conflict against Israel in parallel with. the Gaza War since October now at any. moment all these smaller conflicts could. erupt into much bigger ones if either. side if Israel makes a mistake or a. miscalculation if Hezbollah makes a.

mistake or a miscalculation Iran the. same suddenly these conflicts could. erupt into an allout Regional War. involving all these actors firing on. full. cylinders so far no side has appeared. truly willing to do that they've always. stepped back from the brink and on. Sunday we saw Hezbollah and Israel doing. exactly that but if it does escalate. into an allout Regional War then that. would at the the very least consume.

Israel's energies draw down its. resources its munition supplies and. possibly make Israel much likelier to. agree to a truce in Gaza in order to get. all of these conflicts to wind down and. how would a regional War change the. calculations for sinir the feeling is. that senoir would benefit from a. regional War a regional War would. distract Israel and potentially even in. D. the existence of the Israeli State.

depending on how long and how intense. that war got all of this benefits Hamas. and all of it benefits sinoa because the. weaker the Israeli state is the more. likely it is to compromise in Cesar. negotiations with Hamas and agree to. something that sinir thinks is more. favorable to hamas's long-term survival. and presumably on the most extreme. scenario the destru of Israel is. something that he's actually rowing.

toward and a big Regional War would. raise the Spectre of that it would. certainly increase its chances a noal to. Israel is a very strong state it has. perhaps the strongest military in the. Middle East and it would take a lot to. dislodge its presence in the region but. Hamas has never rescinded the call it. made in its founding charted to destroy. Israel and anything that makes Israel. less safe would be construed by h. as a step toward that goal now.

interestingly there are those who. believe that the Israelis themselves or. some Israelis are also seeking a. regional War why well by this Theory it. would create the pretext by which Israel. could attack Iran in a much more Brazen. and intense way than it ever previously. has done prime minister Netanyahu and. many Israelis see Iran as their biggest. Foe and they fear that the nuclear.

weapons program that Iran is working on. is a much more existential threat to. Israel than anything Hamas or other. Palestinians might throw at the Israeli. population and therefore by this. argument some Israeli leaders perhaps. Netanyahu himself is searching for a. pretext to hit Iran hard to destroy that. nuclear capacity and perhaps even drag. in the US Israel's biggest Ally into a.

regional war that it doesn't seek but. would be forced to join in order to. defend its Key Middle Eastern Ally and. all of that would create the pretext and. the opportunity to destroy Iran's. nuclear capability so as much as many. Israelis and Palestinians are. desperately looking for a way to end. this war there are people on either side. who have reasons to not just continue. the war but also escalated it into an.

allout regional conflict I mean it's. remarkable you know we started this. conversation by talking about these two. men their political Ambitions and why. it's making it difficult for them to get. to a ceasefire but we're ending it in a. place where it seems not only are they. not wanting to get to a ceasefire but. potentially they actually want the war. to get bigger they're not going away. from conflict but running toward it.

that's a. possibility we can't know what either. man is thinking exactly we not inside. their heads what we can say for sure. though is that both Israel and Hamas and. by extension both Netanyahu and Sina are. still involved in negotiations for a. ceasefire those negotiations do not. currently seem very likely to succeed. but they do continue There was a big. meeting on Sunday between senior.

officials from Israel and the mediating. countries the possibility of a ceasefire. very much remains even if the chances of. an allout Regional War are also growing.

Patrick thank you thank you. Sabrina on Wednesday hundreds of Israeli. troops mounted a major military. operation in the West Bank targeting. Palestinian militants in the occupied. territory where nearly 3 million. Palestinians live under Israeli military. rule the operation followed months of. escalating Israeli raids in the area and. Israeli officials said that at least.

nine people had been killed Hamas. denounced the operation accusing Israel. of expanding the war in. Gaza as of Wednesday morning the. operation was. [Music]. ongoing we'll be right back.

here's what else you should know. today on Tuesday Donald Trump announced. plans to name his former rival Robert F. Kennedy Jr along with former US. Representative tulsy gabard as honorary. co-chairs of his presidential transition. team the team which includes Trump Sons. as well as his running mate JD Vance. would help him select the policies and. person Personnel for a second Trump.

term the appointments were a bid by. Trump to show that his support extends. Beyond party lines both Kennedy and. gabard spent most of their public lives. as progressives and both started their. presidential runs as Democrats Kennedy. ended his independent campaign for. president last week and endorsed Trump. gabard has since left the Democratic. party and rebranded herself as a. celebrity among Trump's base of.

support. and special counsel Jack Smith revised. his indictment accusing former president. Donald Trump of plotting to overturn the. 2020 election in an effort to help it. survive the Supreme Court's recent. ruling granting former presidents. immunity for official acts in office in. its decision on immunity the Supreme. Court ruled that a president's dealings. with the justice department Department. are considered official duties of his.

office Smith's revised charging. documents exclude the accusations that. Trump conspired with Justice Department. officials to support his false claims. that the election had been stolen from. him if you want more of today's top. stories go check out our other Daily. News show it's called the headlines it's. the biggest stories of the day in 10. minutes or less subscribe to it wherever. you get your podcasts.

today's episode was produced by cydney. Harper Ricky nety and Stella tan with. help from Nina Feldman it was edited by. Mark George with help from Paige cowt. contains original music by Marian Lozano. and Alicia bitup and was engineered by. Chris Wood our theme music is by Jim. brunberg and Ben Lanser of wonderly. [Music].

that's it for the daily I'm Sabrina. tavernes see you tomorrow. [Music].